71,000,900 7000 votes. he is ahead by 2.5 percentage points yet always the counting of votes from phoenix and las vegas east to atlanta and worked to philadelphia and pittsburgh. this american morning, who will be our next president? remain calm. markets, look what we see. futures of 72. the vix plunges. mr. biden asked for temperature to be lower. limbs the commonwealth of pennsylvania. good morning. "bloomberg surveillance." on a really original day in american history, francine, lots more history in london as well. we will get to that important guy johnson conversation with the governor in moment. francine, just your thoughts on what you observed in the colonies? i looke: first of all, at the markets.

everyone here is really waiting with baited breath on who the president of the united states is. we understand through the counting that joe biden could win it. it is razor thin, but we don't know for certain. the markets don't expect some kind of surprise, which is why they are stable and up. the other story is the bank of england, talking possibly about negative rates. although, not for now. guy johnson in the conversation with the governor talking about the downside risk. i think we have learned earlier this year with thoughts of covid, that we act both andkly and we do at clearly scale. we have a very substantial genocide risk on the forecast, and a lot of that relates to how covid itself will evolve. the bank ofernor of england. extensive comments on this. really important interview, mr. johnson, with nestor bailey on the bank of england. i should note, sterling rallies

nicely. some of the headlines this morning are pretty shocking. let me do a data check. jonathan ferro just emailed and said, don't forget the data check. futures up 69. dow futures up 1.24%. excuse me. the nasdaq 100 moving 2.8%. the vix is the lead story, 26.86. i calculated the standard deviation move and the 10 year yield is on the edge of china or miss. it is about 4.2 standard deviation yield from the high-yield down to where we are, .74% right now on the 10 year yield. we are seeing seismic changes in bonds. a weaker dollar. francine: a weaker dollar. i think it is a reduced likelihood of a multi-dollar stingless package and divided congress that has helped push

treasuries higher again today. what i'm looking at is, first of all, the vote count. to the do take heart fact they are expecting no major changes to taxes or regulation that have underpinned the bull market for years. european stocks are up. i'm looking at pound. this is a brexit conversation. this is a bank of england conversation. guy johnson in conversation with andrew bailey and the first day of a second national lockdown in the u.k. the only difference this time around, schools and colleges remain open but everything else is a, shut, shut. tom: greece looks to a three week locked out as well. this is extraordinary from the financial times, it appears a six-month delay on this troubled transaction. the generations

of financial and everybody was going to make billions and millions of dollars and then shanghai and hong kong and for that matter, beijing have said, wait. right now a stunning six-month delay. no question that would be our lead story if we were not distracted by pandemic and election. speaking of the election, it is important to remember there are two individuals involved stop let's listen to mr. biden and mr. trump. mr. biden: after a long night of counting, it is clear that we are winning enough states to reach 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. i am not here to declare that we reportt i am here to when the count is finished, we believe we will be the winners. tos. trump: we will be going the u.s. supreme court. we want all voting to stop. we don't want them to find any ballots at 4:00 :00 in the

morning and add them to the list. we will win this. tom: the two candidates and i'm sure we will hear from both of them today as well. futures up 69. we began in the trenches. martin is that the train terminal in philadelphia which was saved after the disgrace of penn station going down in new york city. within the shed of the reading railroad is the pennsylvania convention center, philadelphia convention center ice should say. he joins us this morning. mark, first of all, you must describe the tension seen at the convention center yesterday. protest it like to see as people in yellow vests counted votes? mark: it was an interesting scene at the convention center because it was supposed to be a press conference with rudy giuliani come the presidents campaign lawyer eric trump, and his wife laura outside the

convention center to talk about the legal action the campaign was taking in pennsylvania. there was a protest going on with the group arguing all votes should be counted. the press conference was canceled and moved to different location when the protesters showed up. it was quite noisy for a type outside the convention center while they were still counting the meal in an absentee ballots inside. on new york a focus and washington. there happen to be 50 states. we will show georgia right now as they begin the counting. 23,000 votes apart in georgia. some people say -- is there any believe, mark, that pennsylvania will not matter because this will be solved in las vegas, in phoenix, or atlanta? r: it is possible. if joe biden wins -- first of all, if you hold onto arizona,

that vote has been narrowing come and wins nevada or georgia, he will need pennsylvania to get to 270 electoral votes. but the feeling is we're going to be watching all of these states to the bitter end because the trump campaign has sued in , georgia,ia, michigan pursuing a recount in wisconsin. to trump campaign is going contest every last vote so we might not have -- we could trust the final outcome until some of these lawsuits are settled for all the dust is settled on the counting. francine: mark, after the setbacks president trump in arizona and wisconsin, does he still have a path forward to being reelected? mark: the presidents campaign will tell you that he does, but it pretty much hinges on flipping the result in arizona. it is an interesting situation where fox news called arizona for biden early on election

night, relatively early, and a lot of the other networks have not. but the associated press, the gold standard that we follow for calling races, did declare arizona for biden. so it counted in his column in the race for the electoral votes. but that vote has been narrowing as the votes from maricopa county, the largest county in arizona, come in and the outstanding mail ballots are counted. flips the arizona count, 10 that gives a better path of receiving 270, which would have to include pennsylvania. tom: mark, thank you so much at the lid of the convention center in pennsylvania. he absolutely nails it. overnight, arizona, very fractionally gave mr. trump a little bit of a lift. the disparity.

a real treat after david folkerts-landau i negative interest rates, we speak with kenneth rogoff of harvard, former head economic research for the imf. deficit on the debt and . if we have time, kenneth rogoff on the experiment of negative interest rates. stay with us. this is "bloomberg." ♪

trump barely won in 2016. he won by think less than one other thousand votes in the margin in michigan was less than 11,000 votes. for a guy who won a razor thin margins come if biden wins by

razor thin margins, i think will be a difficult public campaign for trump to make. a design can with the issues -- it is unclear what the issues we consider. >> [indiscernible] the you think happens to s&p 500? some say he can go down 5% to 10%. yet to let the whole process play out. -- you have to let the whole process play out. on the presidential election. tom is dealing with a couple of charts that we need to look at. joining us to talk about the temple, lazard. great to speak to you. the markets are pretty much on a tear or their liking what they're saying. is it really because we did not get a big surprise in the u.s. election, or do they like this

combination which could be a possible biden presidency with a republican senate? ronald: i think it is largely relief. if you look at the possibility we were looking at coming into the election of a blue wave, particularly of dark blue wave meaning if the democrats had 153 seats in the senate and the presidency and a house, there was going to be quite a bit of stimulative activity primarily through infrastructure spending to climate-related investments. that would've been positive for growth. the cost of that would be pretty large tax increases, raising the corporate tax rate to 28% and raising tax rates and very high income earners substantially. i think with the market is doing is looking at the bright side of the story and saying, first, it looks like biden is likely to win and unlikely to be a contested election as we wait for the last couple of states. number two, maybe we get less stimulus but we also don't get tax increases. the seven percentage tax

increase could have been a headwind for earnings. and i look at these markets there is a huge feeling of a melt up. we got that in 2016. is there an equivalency? ronald: i'm not sure i would say we're going to see a melt up. more of a relief. this is not the best outcome for markets in my view. i think a better outcome would have been the major fiscal stimulus package. i think largely this is going in not being a case of legislative gridlock. i do think we will get a covid relief package nothing the market is probably attaching sub positive view to that prospect most of i think the negative side, for at least the next two years, largely to be dependent on voluntary dish monetary policy -- monetary policy. i think a melt up maybe too big of a stretch but i think this is our market that wanted to go up.

i got blue wave bruises and bruises. i go back and forth. what is the lazard mandate right now? ronald: we are always looking at the best docs from the bottom up not having a specific style. but i do think the environment are looking at for the next couple of years, unfortunately, i would say looks like one where it is likely to be more to same. for the last year we have seen an 4200 basis point spread from the russell 1000 growth index and value. we're literally talking about being up 36% for growth versus minus five and change for value. environment, negative real rates. where there is a narrow group of companies, investors are likely to continue chasing those growth stocks. that does become riskier. if you're paying higher and

higher valuation multiples on cash flow you hope will happen in five to 10 years, there is a lot of room for downside. ron, a racing technology stocks, for example, are in bubble territory or could soon be in bubble territory? ronald: with the technology, there are some very will valued companies, companies that look attractive from evaluation perspective still but there are some pockets and in the tech sector that do look like they are in bubble territory. i do worry about some of those companies. i tend to think of it, of some really great companies that generate high returns on capital now and are likely to continue doing that for years to come. i think many cases, those are still attractively valued. it is more these buying business plans as opposed to buying businesses that makes me worried in the tech sector. it is not just tech. in biofarma, we have seen very , especiallytrading

those chasing vaccines. it is different areas of the market where investors might be overpaying for revenue growth and not actually getting net profit. thankne: ronald temple, you so much, from lazard. coming up next, we have the conversation with guy johnson speaking to andrew bailey coming up shortly. this is "bloomberg." ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg

surveillance." andook at u.s. elections look at the bank of now we have that interview with guy johnson speaking with the bank of england governor. boosting the bond buying program by more than expected. here is the governor. >> i think we have learned this year from our experiences with earlier bouts of covid that it is important that we act both quickly and we do act clearly in scale. that was an important consideration for us. we have to meet inflation target sustainably over time. a lot of the work we did on our forecast and deploying the perspective policy decisions was a quantum of qe that delivered a sustainable path of inflation to meet the target. guy: what is the difference between the two numbers? >> it is much larger, obviously. i think it works two ways. one is a does have an impact on

the cost of financing and on the curve, interest rate curve. secondly, there's a quantity effect which is -- it puts more liquidity into the economy most up it takes out assets that are not as liquid and puts assets into the economy that can be used in consumption and investments. guy: in terms of what comes next, if qe -- is qe still the best option after this announcement? have you discussed other tools, for instance, you'll curve control? -- yield curve control? do you have an idea of sequencing which you may use? >> one of the things i think also true bank that has changed in recent times is we've had to look far more at the tools we have available to us and there is more choice over tools. whereas if you go back in time, there was really a choice over rates, interest rates,. and we have done that.

we've had a look at the role of forward guidance, quantitative easing, we are the work on evaluating whether there would be a case in what circumstances for using negative rates. we don't have a sort of fixed order of use of tools. i think that is appropriate. it would always be dependent upon the state of the world in the state of the economy that we found ourselves in. guy: looking at the economy, looking at the report you delivered today, questions will be asked and are being asked around the world as to whether or not economies will suffer double dips. downsidehe risk of the on the later number? >> the evolution of covid itself. we have a very substantial downside risk on the forecast and a lot of that relates to how covid itself is going to evolve. i would emphasize that. the other thing i would emphasize about the path of gdp

and activity in the economy, bear in mind, the end of the third quarter, so the end of september, relative to a level before covid -- the end of last -- about calendar year 9% down in terms of level of activity. when we think about the courtly path, we have to overlay it on the fact -- these are huge numbers. you think in history, these are unprecedented numbers. that fall in q4 comes from a starting point that was much lower before covid. guy: the trajectory is different. as a result, what do you see the biggest risk now line at for the economy? let's talk a little about brexit. what assumptions are you making about brexit right now? ent're going with governm guidance. what about the preparedness for brexit come the start of next year? condition and to

use the forecast, the view that there will be a trade agreement and there will be the trade agreement the government has set out to get. that would obviously be an outcome we would all welcome. and we continue to use that because negotiations and talks are obviously still going on. actions speak for themselves. and guyernor bailey johnson with that important interview. we will hear more throughout the day. we had the first shift in putting in the early morning, truly telling. in georgia, the way i fray this -- frame this and the dynamics, we have a 7000 gain for mr. biden and a 2000 gain in votes for mr. trump. 5000 votes. in georgia, the gap narrows from 23,002 about 18,000 right now -- 23,000 to about 18,000.

francine: basically, joe biden needs a win in one of more of the states provided that other race calls stand. trump so far has asked every cap and it was constant, filed suit in michigan, pennsylvania, and georgia and complained about other various states' procedures. tom: all of these little attachments to the vote. in arizona, nevada, georgia, pennsylvania. a conversation with a gentleman from harvard, coming up next. this is "bloomberg." ♪

tom: election 2020, thank you for joining us on those early american morning, and futures up 55 and 71, and perhaps it is the

small calculus in georgia. mr. trump still ahead in georgia, but mr. biden gaining nicely. 18,000 is down to between them and that is ever so slight as they count votes in atlanta. world trade for us. ken rogoff has been a huge supporter of our work. a harvard professor and former head of economic resort -- researchers at the head of the economic fund. i consider his book to be the bravest book of economics for the decade if not many years beyond. i want to talk about the curse of two americas, the partition that this election divides. .e seems to get further apart what is the policy prescription to bring america together? ken: that is a really tough question. certainly from an economic perspective, we need to have a

better social safety net in the united states. i think covid-19 has exposed that. but there are broader questions, questions on how to regulate tax control over media, which i think is a big contributor to this divisiveness. , whoever is president certainly seems like joe biden, this would be something that they need to focus their attention on. that to me is the underlying problem. the underlying problem is one of productivity, but it is thest the application of benefits of our economy against almost what we call rent seeking, where the elites are not literally stealing it away, but taking their fair share and then some. how do we switch that tone and attitude? ken: i mean, i think there needs

to be a better social safety net. i think that has been clear for a long time. at the end of the day, some of this has got to be higher taxes and more government services -- not more government services, but subsidized private services. that would go away long way towards calming the country down. you go to other countries in the world and you see a lot of the same thing. globalization has made the world no -- more equal, do not forget that. thomas said it created great inequality, not if you count all citizens the same. countries, the benefits have not been equal. there has been study after study showing that the emergence of china in the global economy has been a big contributor to inequality in the united states and europe.

you have to have measures to counterbalance that. to: also important is understand that francine lacqua in london has picketed the over dilly over herca left shoulder. she is totally read in on these matters. the concern is that some of the prescription that you have just laid out, very coherently and well port -- well put is not what the americans want, especially if the senate goes to the republicans. even if you have a democratic president, or his hands tied for uniting the country or socially quality going forward? ken: it will be harder to have changed, and it is not over yet in the senate from my assessment if the democrats get both of the george's seats, but, certainly

if the senate is moot, we would see a dramatic change in policy, something very decisive, and now, i do not know what if the senate stays in republican hands. unless one of the republican strays. lose one person, and suddenly the democrats can have their way. we do not know what lies ahead. i would like to see dealing with the pandemic for them to do something. catastrophe,ural they are not debating stimulus, they are debating people dealing with a disaster. reelectionhat does -- it is so close and razor thin no matter who gets it. what does it tell us about what kind of democracy that the americans want? americans want the democracy that they have.

electionsure that this is showing that democracy is not working. i say just to the contrary that the president has said that he will not respect institutions and the rule of law, and it looks like he will be pushed out anyway no matter how he tries to resist. the media had this very one sided election for reasons we can discuss with the pollsters that were way off and even worse than 2016. the media was way off. and, it shows that there is a democracy working. i do not look at this election and say democracy is not working. tom: i have one final question. one of the great moments we have had in our history of doing economics, and joe is joining us on the same stage and it goes back to all of the debate ages ago about global and economic --

an international economics. you know that you and joe are on the same page that getting out of a debt disaster is about the growth rate. confidence that we can generate a u.s. and global economic growth rate that will help us get out of -- crawl out of this mess of debt? ken: i am an optimist on global growth. i do not think you can extrapolate long-running trends. i am an optimist on technologyk -- optimist on technology and we are in the middle of the pandemic. i am not an optimist of how it is going. we have all kind of use, and i tend to lean towards thinking that we have top times ahead for the people and economy. i am ana few years, and optimist on where technology and growth is going. francine: what does it mean for

small and medium-sized enterprises if we do not have the stimulus needed and i do not know how likely is it that we will get something enough to keep companies afloat. what will we look at the u.s. economy to be in two years from now? ken: i will be very clear, i am not optimistic on what is going on. for small ander medium-sized businesses and competition. it is a disaster for all of the people who have lost their jobs and are having trouble finding things. the talking about twenty-year year future of technology. but, right now i think it will get worse before it gets better, a lot of regions may see double dips. we do not know how the virus is going, that i hear all views and i tend to be quite concerns, and i am not trying to say that there will be great growth soon or, certainly, the right way of

thinking about it is when will we get back to where we started? it is going to beat to at least the end of 2021 or maybe longer. tom: thank you so much for joining us on the historic day for america. professor rogoff, i cannot say enough about his "the curse of cash." yields have advanced lower in the last 10 minutes. with our first word news is ritikia. battlegroundis one state away from becoming the next president of the united states. he won two key prizes, the states of michigan and wisconsin which put -- which puts him at six electoral college votes away from the 270 he needs. his best chance appears to be in nevada where he holds a lead over president trump. for the president to be reelected he would have to win

all of the battleground states that have not yet been called. issident trump's team pursuing a contradictory legal strategy. the president is trying to stop vote counting in states where he is ahead, but demanding recounting where he is losing to biden. the president has claimed that there is widespread fraud in voting by mail. the tightly contested election is putting pressure on the federal reserve to support the economy. policymakers are not expected to announce a shift when they conclude their two day meeting. but treasurer powell may hint at coming changes to the bond buying program. chances of a gristle -- aggressive fiscal spending faded when a democratic sweep did not happen. that record-setting $35 billion ipo buy will be delayed by at least six months. that is according to "the financial times," and it was supposed begin listing earlier today. earlier this week chinese

regulators put the offering on hold. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. 2:00 p.m.,ortant, at there is a fed meeting. scott is scheduled to be with us and it will be most interesting. on the election front, the fed meeting is off of the radar but it is important to our global wall street audience. scott at 2:00 p.m. futures up 63. election 2020, this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. coming up later today on bloomberg markets, scott minerd, the chief exclude -- investment mock -- monitor. this is bloomberg. ♪

good morning worldwide from london and new york. francine lacqua and tom keene election 2020. it is a thursday, because it is most historic, lots of other news going on but with futures up 68 and the vix slamming from 40 to 26.75, there is some form of optimism in the bloomberg world as we look at the uncounted across too many states. kevint briefing with cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. of first numbers and nuance the morning, moving from 23,000 gap, mr. biden catching up, only 18,000 votes away. catch mr. trump in georgia, and what are the ramifications across this morning in atlanta? kevin: i think that should biden eke out a win in georgia, then

without question he would be on path to succeed. only six more electoral votes he needs in order to clinch 270. we will likely get new data from clark county, nevada. nevada still hanging in the balance, so to speak. from that front, i would anticipate new data from nevada. six electoral votes, and if he wins that, he gets to 270. i would anticipate that in the next six hours, and the on that, the trump campaign pursuing legal action in a host of different states including wisconsin, pennsylvania, and north carolina. tom: news coming in from philadelphia and accounting going on there. this has been extraordinary, and mark niquette mentioning the tension at the philadelphia convention center including as trump supporters and one of his sons became vocal.

and mr. giuliani was there, still recovering from her interview with him a week ago. the president's language, he claims pennsylvania -- long ago francine, i, john, and lisa, claimed kevin cirilli. what is the language of claim. how does anyone claim a state? sure, precisely what the word claimant means, because it -- claim means, because it does not have a legal standing. if they are going to pursue legal action, it would have to go to the supreme court. but the nuance is what they would launch that likely file suit over and what would make it to the supreme court, and that is that ballots postmarked on election day that would not be able to be counted in the three day window that had been granted by law to pennsylvanians.

and so, it is an incredibly nuanced argument, but it is an argument that the supreme court did not take up on october 28. that said, there is a major change on the supreme court, and that is the addition of amy coney barrett. they also provided wiggle room that they will be able to take up the case. the question is, will it matter if biden wins in nevada or georgia? francine: there is something that i have been trying -- i have been thinking about almost all morning. joe biden needs to win and one more state so you were explaining it quick -- clearly. that the other race calls stand. what are the chances that the other race calls do not stand? toin: so, when i talked campaign sources in the last 24

hours, according to those sources they have their eye on arizona, which they feel would be somehow able to switch. they would have to play florida where it would have to be recalled all the way back to the flip. it has been called for democrats and they feel that additional votes would ring it back to their account. i think what is remarkable is that americans were prepped for a long election battle, but that does not mean they have election fatigue. every hour that goes by and as ultimately,unted, this election will end. tom: one of the newspapers coming in, this is "the daily it used to bethan with shockwave and look who is on the cover, and mr. trump down here, and we will see if these photos reverse in the next coming days. kevin cirilli, thank you so

much. i have eight more questions that we will get through the morning. this is exciting. francine: it is exciting. we track covid-19 and the u.s. elections but there are three main stories, extra lockdowns are starting and the u.k. and we look at number of infections and the effect on the markets. it is all about the u.s. election and it is razor thin and to the wire. we are talking about thousands of votes in certain districts that could make or break either candidate. and then we look at the bank of england with that great interview that guy johnson did of governor bailey. coming up shortly, and then in the next hour, johns hopkins university nursing professor jason farley will be talking about vaccines coming up next. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance," with tom and francine from london and new york. as we continue tracking

covid-19, we have developed a partnership with jonathan hopkins. they have been on the forefront of the international response and we bring you insight and emergency preparedness. joining us is jason farley, johns hopkins's nursing professor. a lot to talk about and we need to start with exactly what we know in the u.s., the rising number of cases and people getting infected. is this the second wave or the continuation of the first wave less deadly they the first? or will we see the number significantly rise? prof. farley: yes, great question. we are seeing increases in mortality, but we have to still think about the epidemiology of covid-19 shifting somewhat. waves we really had concentrated epidemics in florida, and, new york, and california. in places where there were large

economic radical centers bringing in additional resources, and surge capacity better than the rural epidemic that we are getting to see. as we move into more rural states, we are seeing a hospital surge capacity be tighter. there are less options for that surge capacity, less icu beds and fewer ventilators. contribute tould excess mortality. on the flipside we also have some benefits with the therapeutics, with steroids and death a mezzo zone -- death a mezzo zone -- which are therapeutics but do not prevent death. ands a double-edged sword we are seeing progress but surge capacity is not as good as it was previously. how different our covid policies going to be nationwide if we have president

biden in the white house? think --ley: first, i it sounds like it is too early bidenl, but under a administration, my understanding based on plans that they have reported, they would be providing a much more scientific approach, which will include more measures similar to what is going through in the u.k., possibly a series of necessary lockdowns, possibly a series of added measures in terms of requirement for mask wearing. again, allowing the state to really adjudicate those rules and regulations. communicatingnk to the american people, both the severity of the illness as well as the important measures that we all really

need to get behind. i think the mixed messaging has soda confusion and doubt -- sewed confusion and doubt, and that is one of the most important things that the biden administration would change. a first: you also took dose of the covid-19 vaccine yesterday, what was it like? prof. farley: yes. i enrolled in the astrazeneca vaccine, and it was the most conveniently available to me at johns hopkins at the time. kind ofine is classic approach to all vaccines, and injection. -- an injection. you need to get two soreness -- two injections. a little bit of muscle soreness, a slight headache the next morning, and just general muscle aches. some tylenol clear that up for paracetamol clear that up.

and, feeling fine today. reporting symptoms from the vaccine every single day. feeling great and hopefully we will get the second dose and about 28 more days. francine: thank you so much. jason farley at johns hopkins and be sure to check out the bloomberg terminal for the latest information. we continue following the election and various state still counting, and then a piece of breaking news from the bbc, but we are expecting the chancellor to the exchequer to talk shortly and we understand that he will extend the furlough program until march. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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here. the market wants to see something that is orderly. >> we could still be living in this uncertain environment around the stimulus for a while. >> the downside risk is that we get divided government and gridlock. >> that's where fiscal stimulus comes into play. that is where taxes come into play. >> the consumer is very nervous. >> the more the stimulus talk is going to be delayed, people are going to be worried again. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this equity market is flying. it is thursday morning. for many of us, it is tuesday night still. tom: we will get to that in a moment. i think the markets are so importantor