trump's refusal to concede is an embarrassment as the white house stalls a transition, while secretary of state pompeo even talks of a second trump administration. biden's brexit warning. the president-elect uses his first call with boris johnson to reaffirm his support for the good friday agreement. and risk-on rotation. a move out of tech picks up steam while a chinese crackdown on tech wipes almost $260 billion in two days. alibaba and tencent sink. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, of course we will look at life pictures coming in from paris, and i think we also have life pictures coming in from hong kong. it could be -- life pictures coming in from hong kong. some of the opposition has quit to protest some of the powers coming in from china. this was after china moved to disqualify certain lawmakers who are not deemed sufficiently

loyal, so the opposition bloc in hong kong resigned altogether. dani: the present news from -- tom: the present news from china, but it can wait until armistice day. the arc de triomphe in early 19th-century century. not known, the first internal flame was lit in the western centuriesenturies and in 1920. it starts an interestiay for remembrance worldwide. a course in france, there is always a tone here of the cost and the price of one were one. i would say that this dovetails with the remembrance day of an aging queen and the united kingdom. in the united states overnight, francine, there will be no focus on armistice day. there is absolute chaos, no other way to put it, at the pentagon, with the resignation of the secretary of defense. it is a very different remembrance day this year. also because the

coronavirus is limiting public services, so a lot of people are respecting the two-minute u.k.ce, which falls in the usually an hour from now. there are so many things that people are thinking about because of the uncertainty in u.s. politics, but again we remember the fallen on armistice day. that's get to bloomberg first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: president-elect joe biden calls president trump's refusal to accept the results of the election an embarrassment. the president will not allow his administration to cooperate in the transition of power, and biden is not getting the intelligence briefing the president-elect normally receives. biden says the president's actions will not help his legacy. president trump is quickly remaking the pentagon leadership in the wake of the election. the day after the present fired mark esper by tweet, two senior and take on officials stepped down, so did mark esper's former

chief of staff. critics say that sends a signal of turmoil in the military leadership. is back in u.s. cities after a couple of months essentially being a rural problem. according to the cdc, metropolitan areas are averaging a record number of daily cases, with rising cases in and around denver, detroit, and chicago. it is also coming back around boston, newark, and jersey. disqualifying on patriotic lawmakers -- disqualifying unpatriotic lawmakers, one of the moves in beijing to put down dissent in hong kong. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. this is bloomberg.

tom: looking at the data right now, a listing of the equity markets with the bond markets close on november 11. futures up 24, dell futures, 29,507.el, even big tex does better today with the nasdaq 100 up. the vix comes in, 24.29. i have a final quote on 10 year, .97 53. that is not a live quote, but it shows over the last 48 hours how we have nudged up on the 10-year yield. a little bit of dollar strength. i don't want to oversell that. 1.2789., francine: investors continue into this rotation into cyclical industries at the expense of technology shares. aslook at companies such internet firms and of course in tech giants in china, because the text selloff deepened after

china's crackdown, so that is a story that we are going to follow closely. if we look at the risk on sentiment, it definitely busted sovereign bonds, which fell in europe, and treasuries are closed today because a veterans day. but treasury futures are also slipping. tom: we have a wonderful guest to get us started, but with the tumult of the last 24 hours, i believe it is tuesday, there was an election a week ago. let us listen to the president-elect. mr. biden: i just think it is an embarrassment, quite frankly. the only thing that -- how can i say this tactfully? not help thell president's legacy. tom: very good, mr. speaking yesterday, and the news flow late into the evening in washington and overnight has

been extraordinary. we will bring you up-to-date on that as we look at economics, finance, investment, and this political season. there is christine lagarde, now holding court in frankfurt. , washington,arde d.c., and then there is gang issue anger -- wolfgang ischinger from germany. we are thrilled that wolfgang ischinger could join us. he is the former german ambassador to the united kingdom , the court of st. james, and of course to the united states as well. ambassador, what a most interesting time to speak of a world in danger. to find that in your book. what is the new danger this world faces? thank you for having me on your program. you know, i think this is the best moment we can ask this question. ,hen i finished editing my book

"world in danger," i did not know that if i had to rethink the title today, i would probably want to say world in great danger, because many of the certainties which we have europe, and you on the american side, which we have been taking for granted, seem to disappear as we speak. what about the protective umbrella that the united states of america has been that has made available to europe for the last 70 years? is it there to stay, or has president trump -- or as president trump has suspected, is it no longer useful or necessary for the united states? what about the ever closer union of the european union? our principal with which i grew up as a young diplomat for the last 40 years.

that themonstrates european union is not a given. and what about china and responsiblesia as stakeholders? that was the idea that we pursued not so long ago, quite obviously china and russia are not going to want to be responsible stakeholders in the kind of systems that the united createdith our allies after world war ii. so things have been falling apart, and this is a dangerous situation because it invites conflict, it invites misunderstanding. it has created enormous mistrust. tom: the chancellor of germany i believe is 59 years and holding, and she has been on for 14 years, going on 15. i'm fascinated what you think -- at 74,t 54, -- trump

biden in his 78th year. are you worried about the exhausting nature of diplomacy? wolfgang: i am over 70 myself. i only experience speaking personally is that if you have a challenging mission in which you believe, it doesn't really 75.er whether you are 25 or you are going to give everything you have. you are actually going to wake up earlier each morning because you want to get things done. so i don't really think, unless there is major sickness coming youi don't think that cannot carry out this kind of mission at age 75 or 78 or so. oh course you are going to get tired -- of course you are going to get tired a little earlier, but having watched president trump over the last four years,

he has sufficient time to go golfing and relax and recover, and i don't see why the next president cannot do the same thing. francine: ambassador, what is the easiest thing joe biden can do to bring back trust within the international community? himself.just be we know him. he has been around for 40 years. every sitting european head of , withor prime minister very few exceptions, knows joe biden has met in washington, or at our conference, the security conference, where he has been a frequent guest, etc. so he is a known entity. people trust him, they have known him for a long time. he was the vice president of the united states for so many years. if he just acts as joe biden, he is a living trust-creating, confidence-creating measure.

biden has recently sent a clear message to his we are back. is can the u.s. really be back during a transition period where everything seems to be contested, where the trump administration things possibly they have won this, and frankly by the sure number of americans who voted for trump, how difficult is it for allies to believe that the u.s. is back to the pre-trump world? wolfgang: i don't think he meant to indicate that we are going to go back to some kind of transatlantic paradise that actually never really existed. we have always had contentious issues. return to there is no , butormer relationship what we can and what we must do -- we on the european side -- is

to make an offer to the next american administration. we cannot now, knowing that this was a hard-won election, that there are 70 million americans that did not vote for joe biden, we need to -- we as the european union, we as europeans -- we should make an offer to the united states, offering cooperative arrangements. for example, on the issue of how to deal with china. on the question of what kind of burden sharing, above and beyond gdpfamous nasty 2% of expenditure for defense, what kind of burden sharing can we enter into that would make the beden for the united states less, with more responsibility for the europeans? it is a new world, a new

relationship, and we europeans need to behave and have a good relationship with the united states. we will continue with ambassador here. also to the united states. it is november 11. it is remembrance day, different names, different nations, but something in common, which is a somber moment for all, considering back to world war i and other conflict as well. mccroneaw at the -- mr. -- mr. macron at the arc de triomphe. ♪

francine: those are live pictures of french president continuing this armistice day. in france, it is normally marked by a parade in paris, and events around the country. with the nation under lockdown this year, it will be very different. they are hoping that a lot of people are joining in around france, may a special significance for frenchmen and french women that suffered because of world wars. still with us is wolfgang ischinger, german ambassador to the u.s.. we were looking at live pictures of the armistice, where really our collective memories come at a time when the worlds were

divided and split. given what we have seen over the last week and the fact that you have countries such as russia and china not having congratulated president elect joe biden yet, what does it tell you about the state of the world? wouldn't well, i overestimate their hesitation. you can argue -- and i'm sure people have argued in other western capitals also, shouldn't we wait with our congratulations come with our messages, until it is really official? but then of course when you think about it, that would mean that you would want to wait until the electoral college has met, which is like in a month, when the news media announced the winner, we will congratulate. i can understand. i don't like it, i don't appreciate it, but i can understand that some would want

to wait until some kind of ,fficial result is announced and once all the votes are in. of futureeat sign , of china and the united states come of russia and the united states? probably not, but let's wait and see. leaders can get together, and i would think a future president biden will -- i have known him, i have seen him work. i think he will find a way to connect to vladimir putin and to xi jinping over time and work things out. francine: -- tom: ambassador, i grew up in a adenauer. reviewed there is a memory of these wars, world war i and world war ii. is the next generation, have we

just given up those memories? there is a transition going on. how will it go if we don't have a collective memory? aregang: i think you addressing a very important question. by the way, you know, when i inved as a german diplomat paris in the 1990's, in the early 1990's, up to those years, no germans had ever been invited to the official celebration at the arc de triomphe on this armistice day, because we were the enemy then. and then the french government, in the early 1990's, changed their policies and invited germans, including even germans in uniform, to participate. so that is, you know, reconciliation between two former enemies, and that is what makes our job, the diplomatic

job, so fascinating, that you can actually reach out and grab your enemies' hand come your adversaries' hand, and make peace. tom: ambassador, thank you so much for joining us on this remembrance day. wolfgang ischinger, former ambassador to the united states and the court of st. james and britain as well. speaking of the british, we will move well across the globe. the bond market in the united states closed for veterans day, as we call it. lord patton will join us, the former hong kong governor. there is terrific news flow out of hong kong this morning. worldwide, it is armistice day. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. here is your boom big business flash -- numbered business flash. close to a 9 billion deal to buy danish based rival mets. it would be the race acquisition in a rapidly consolidation industry. it is backed by hellman and friedman. bloomberg has learned that airbnb set up a long-awaited filing for an ipo has slipped to next week. home sharing giant is set to

file thursday but decided on a delay to keep from being overshadowed by the u.s. election. airbnb is planning to raise as much as $3 billion in its debut on the nasdaq. china's -- is to a u.s. appeals court over the tiktok video sharing app. hastrump administration cited national security grounds. bytedance is seeking an extension. equities, not bonds, currencies, and commodities. it is not doing all that much. in the u.s., futures green. 2.18.utures up i have a final quote on a static 10 year yield. -- 19753 -- .90 753.

is on thethe focus rotation, on some of the other things we are watching, including this hong kong opposition, actually quitting en asse to protest the new china powers. tweeting about having an impact here in europe, you can see they are still getting 0.5%, and this is really some of the shares including utilities. theill have plenty more on markets, plenty more on the economy and covid. up next, christian keller, head of barclays economics research. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are beginning transition. we are well underway. for theity

administration anyway by failure to recognize our win does not change the dynamic at all. that is u.s. president-elect joe biden vowing to go forward with the transition of power. to talk about politics and the impact this has on the markets and on our economic outlook is christian keller who is barclays head of -- research. so much news in the last 10 days. partly it's u.s. politics with a new administration. partly news with the vaccine. will be the most significant change that we've seen the blimp after forecast? >> it has been quite a roller coaster. we went into this with a sense

there would be a blue wave and markets preparing for $3 trillion of stimulus. now we see this is what's happening. the markets reduce their expectations for stimulus and then the news on the successful vaccines coming sooner and even more potent in a way that was anticipated just two days ago. i would say it was packed with important news. i think the vaccine is the biggest game changer. we can talk about policy all we want. they are just trained to aid us in a situation where it the global economy is going through a lot downgraded the vaccine is really the game changer here to bring us back. danger weis there a are putting too much hopes in the vaccine question make i'm not saying it won't arrive, but

it could be delayed, it could only protect for a limited amount of time. is there a danger policymakers aren't ready for that? so second quarter of next year we see a big disappointment and that really moves the economy to a recession/. -- recession. christian: there are dangers to this entire crisis because it's driven by health. something we are only just starting to understand. markets have been moving around sharply. others may be on the way. end theld more or less covid episode. where up with something suddenly there is backtracking or more negative news. , would say to some extent europe and the u.k. will experience negative growth this

quarter. and that comes after work. wes now all about how much can see in 2021. markets at the moment are anticipating better options than we had earlier. reallypoint out, it's something out of my expertise to the bad to what extent news we didn't anticipate. you have it in your barclays note and divided we trust, the idea of american gridlock. we see it in the u.k. with the brexit delay. world and awestern global gridlock? there is some hope

that the new administration in with maybe a more traditional view on transatlantic and multilateral relationships, that may help to overcome some of this. at the moment it's right to we areut in many ways stalling and some of those negotiations. there is a hope with a president biden to return some normalcy. one can then start to improve some of these relationships. between the u.s. and europe and the u.s. and china, the wto, etc.. that is the hope. at the moment, the last few quarters have been characterized by some of the gridlock and little progress. tom: what is the vector on world trade?

i haven't had an update on the spirit of world trade, etc.. what is the direction on units of export? world trade is actually doing relatively well in the sense the direction has been sharply increasing from a very low base. what we've seen is somewhat a split recovery whereby the entire universe of services have been certain to slowdown while asufacturing of goods actually been on very strong footing. china cap producing good export numbers, global manufacturing in germany and others kept being quite strong. very close tois global trade. recover.ntinued to

the second wave of infections way -- weighing on the economies. francine: thank you so much, a christian keller. --, christian keller. former federal prosecutors say attorney general william barr may make president trump happy with his election fraud probe. but they say it's unlikely to change the results. he said a high threshold on irregularities for investigations. at the same time, there's concern it could undercut public support for joe biden. mike pompeo isn't acting like a lame-duck -- lame-duck secretary of state. he said the u.s. is not finished with acting tough on china. he calls the chinese communist party a marxist-leninist monster whose role is --

biden has warned boris johnson not to compromise peace in northern ireland while pursuing brexit -- brexit. support forrmed his the deal that went into ending the violent ordeal in ireland. there was a promise the u.k. would uphold this agreement. to joinral reserve said the group a bank set to fight climate change. trump withdrew the u.s. from the packed that biden has pledged to rejoin. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. up 26.tures there's a good conversation.

david rubenstein of the carlyle group, he will be with us this hising to speak on consultations. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are heading in the wrong direction. over the next two quarters, i am optimistic we will grow at very strong rates. a real downside of the next two quarters is the resurgence gets so bad, it forces lockdowns because of overwhelmed health care systems throughout the country.

that's a real risk. our own sense and we are watching this very carefully through bank balances and other ways, our sense is the savings goes back to fiscal stimulus starting to run out. when it does, incomes will start to drop in consumer spending will weaken. it starts -- and probably the highest priority is some continuation at some level of the unemployment benefits. tom: the gentleman from dallas, yesterday it was mr. kaplan of the dallas fed. i'm telling you, i don't know where this is going in five or 10 years. extraordinarily -- was extraordinary. probably double what they would've gotten in the offices at 67th and park avenue. vincent showed up, number of professors who knew mr. kaplan from his days at hps.

what do you think of this? francine: i was can is a congratulations and welcome to the 21st century. you have been on twitter and other lab forms, but this is a different kind. i think a lot of people think it's convenient because they do it from the comfort of their own home. this is the social capital. people seek other face-to-face and ashley networking. it will be in 52 see that. interesting to see that. the world economic forum is expected to be one of the places we meet in person. tom: also the imf and morocco canceled as well. has really -- in the united states and the past few days. christian keller from barclays is with us. how do you full this resurgence

of the pandemic into your spreadsheets? essentially we are back to may, if not late april. that is not good. how does that adjuster outlook? -- adjust your outlook? you have to figure out what the policy response in the political response will be to it. we do see some differences between the u.s. and europe. once you become concerned about emergencies being filled up, they're very sharp and willingness to lock down. the u.s. differs from state to state. we probably would've seen the same rate in europe. i think there is a risk as we heard earlier. if you want to continue with the increase of this and the vaccine

not coming yet. situation where the u.s. needs to do similar measures to europe. it won't be anything national. frankly we have to adjust our forecast each time and we do it sector by sector to see which sector is how much affected. tom: one of the statistics, u.s. hospitalizations across the great midwest and out to california are back to april 15 levels, which is really something. 62,000 hospitalized in america right now. europe, youller, on mentioned earlier the true slowdown.

mr. kaplan of dallas notes a difficult two quarters. how do you extend out the slowdown in europe? do you go off q2 or q3 of next year? what we currently have is equivalent to negative growth. an actual contraction in the fourth quarter. and then little momentum in q1 and q2. it gives you very little base, which you go into 21. that means growth in europe in 21 could be disappointingly low. i believe that has now changed. i do think the first quarter will be difficult to really accelerate a lot. with the vaccine -- we could see better numbers than

what we have now. i think mr. kaplan said earlier those are very hybrid they don't have to worry as much about the jobs and it reduces excess savings. there's a lot in a way that could to -- that could boost demand. >> where do you see china headed? could they be the big winners in 2020. they got out of the pandemic quicker and really seem to be on much stronger footing than anyone else? they did. i always call them first in, first out. they are still going to have a lot less growth this year. rather than the six point something they are used to. reallyre successful in containing this.

inyou look at cases in china relation to the population, it's on was nonexistent. and then of course with the command economy they had they were able to bring production back. losing quite robust export numbers. to some extent they benefited from the situation. they are trying to boost this at a time that's critical. you look at the chinese credit involved, it's quite potent and will be increasing over the past two quarters. china not concerned about , we think that story will continue to pick up. , thanks sochristian much. coming up on bloomberg markets, we talk about emerging markets

with mark mobius. about theso talk rotation. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. apollo global management is agreed to purchase great canadian gaming. it's the latest shift for the casino industry that's been hit hard by the pandemic. congressional negotiators have agreed to include more sanctions on the gas pipeline between russia and germany. these target insurance and completion companies. they will be included in a defense bill. the world's biggest shopping binge, alibaba has kicked off its annual single day. it's a frenzy of consumption that will serve as the best barometer of china's post

pandemic recovery. off-line sales will recover to a better level in one or two quarters. but if we only look at online sales, i believe it's already returned to normal. >> that your latest bloomberg business flash. >> opposition has quit en masse because what's been happening with china. china had moved to disqualify some lawmakers they deemed -- did not deem sufficient loyal. they said they would disqualify four lawmakers and in total, 15 resigned. john, great to have you today. how significant is this? is it a win for beijing or is it

something hong kong protesters can advance through getting allies? >> i think it's a bad development of them looking at it from beijing. i think the risk is it will escalate the situation with the and the with europe west in general. you've president-elect biden coming into office. this is been a put more pressure for his administration to act, to take punitive measures against beijing for increasing its stranglehold over hong kong. changne: -- tom: fernando , i apologize if i'm missing the has, has said dictatorship descended onto hong kong. do you feel that on the streets? >> i think it is power the -- amount ofthat the people, how much people are

speaking up. the number of protesters out on the streets has decreased substantially in the past year especially after the national security bill came into effect. i think behavior has undoubtedly changed. i think it sort of this we are dynamic where business, when it comes to ipo's, other sorts of businesses are booming. but sort of dissent is noticeably quiet. >> do you think the pro-democracy camp is emboldened because of an upcoming biden administration? or is the timing coincidence? broadly whatto say the opposition if they were more pro-trump or pro-biden, there is a sizable part of that camp that hopes president trump will be reelected.

they supported some of the policies he and his administration talk, specifically the hong kong bill passed by congress and signed into law. i think there's hope biden will continue that approach. by in large, based on the things that happened today, the resignation of the law. i imagine the pressure on biden's going to continue. options, but we aren't going to show the flag in the harbor. how do you perceive the notions of america or the united kingdom to project outrage and protest. isi think the tricky thing both governments, american and british are going to want to try to find some sort of response that publishes -- punishes beijing but does not punish the

people hong kong. as your guestg was talking about before, there is this divergence in economic performance. recovering faster. there is this balance between perceivedand aggression, versus what is in the economic interest. tom: thank you again for your reporting from hong kong. in charge of our greater china effort. us, this iswith bloomberg. ♪

morning, this november

11, it is 102 years on, of this remembrance day in the united kingdom. there will be a moment of silence. a silence attending prince charles and the duchess of cornwall.