arizona adds 11 electoral votes to the blue column. there is no direction from the white house. a perfect quiet to the markets. the dollar is resilient. there is one direction for the virus, and that is exponential. dr. fauci says the nation must double down. new york city schools are likely to close. the ivy league cancels ice hockey. how will they survive in the dartmouth bubble? this is bloomberg surveillance from new york. francine lacqua in london. the pandemic has hit in. in sports-crazy american we are starting to shift into a new round of cancellations. i wonder with the media and disney earnings yesterday, and all that, where will we be in 90 days or 180 days living this pandemic?

francine: i agree. the sports angle is extremely significant, and i hear more people say what does it mean for the future? if you have so much power and are able to bring so much pleasure to so many people, that seems to be the future of where this is headed, unless we get a vaccine. i was looking forward to seeing about inflation and if the central banks are right in saying we shouldn't believe all the hype, or if we get a vaccine, even if it is quick, it will be a cure-all. one of the things we will explore further in this hour. tom: election 2020 is still ongoing. and somehow weekend stagger through the holiday season. you wonder what the news flow will be about 8:00 p.m. tonight within the united states of america. in new york city with our first word news, here is karina mitchell. : rejecting president trump's claims of widespread

voter fraud. they say last week's election was the most secure in american history and there is no evidence any voting system deleted, lost votes, changed votes, or was compromised. china has congratulated joe biden and kamala harris on winning the presidential election that ended days of speculation about when beijing would formally acknowledge the victory. china was one of the few countries that had withheld comment. the reaction came after several television networks rejected that donal joe biden would be donald trump in arizona. an executive order barring american investments in chinese companies owned or controlled by the military. the owner says china is exploiting american capital to develop its military intelligence and security apparatus. prime minister barr, johnson's most powerful aid is quitting.

advisor to depart after tensions blew up over the way the inner circle operates. he was the mastermind of the successful brexit campaign. global news 24 hours a day and at bloombergquint take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪ dow 29,000.el on the vix 24 point 07. other than that, the 10-year, .89 percent, not giving you much information. dollar resilience has been a surprise for the week. dollar, up $40 on american oil. francine: i don't think there's that much going on in the markets, which i have to say is probably significant in itself. investors got a further reminder yesterday about the risks to the recovery after three of the world's top central bankers warned that the promise of a

vaccine isn't enough to put an end to the economic challenges of the pandemic. infection record despite lockdowns. -- and infighting within his camp. , someone withn such wisdom on financial and monetary matters. we are looking at the larger text decks larger existential -- larger existential picture. it is not grim, but it's not quite good. more importantly, secondary and tertiary labor statistics are out. we have two americas. can the fed bring together those americas or is it a pr stunt? adam: more than a pr start in

terms of intent and long term, but it's not clear how much they can do short term. i want to read for size where you started. it is not the measured unemployment rate that has repeatedly been for 30 to 40 years nine a understatement of how much people have been idled to the workforce. the fed and other central banks have gotten it wrong by biased towards underestimating the amount of labor market slack. branch flour and others were pushing with this with the fed in 2014. others have been working on it in different contexts. underemployment and women dropping out of the workforce or being forced out of the workforce by the pandemic, is global. the central bank, starting with the fed's brave and right moves in september to restate their framework, that they will err on the side of seeing how tight labor markets will go before

they start worrying about inflation was the right move. ,onetary policy in this world stagnation, low inflation, low interest-rate world, good policy plays good defense, but it cannot play offense. learned the-2009 we wonders of austerity across central europe. i think the senator from texas is one example, not the only voice on this. us, is it a prodded nest, calvinist, decreased? how did we get to institutions so austere they don't want to fund cities and towns under crisis? adam: under crisis when it is clear funding them would have great multipliers when the cost is minimal because of interest rates being so low. let's make it as stark as it really is.

the austerity repeated mistake is a combination. right now senator cruz is completely playing hypocrisy, because he was offered tax cuts when the republicans had the presidency. with president-elect biden he has found religion on austerity. let's not look cynically at the senate. the reason these moves have residents is because there is a moralistic tone and fallacy that cameron engaged in in 2010 in the u.k. in the german leadership in 2012, and in 2010-2012 in the euro crisis. the household balance sheet is an analogy to the country's balance sheet. that's not true because the country has borrowing capacities households never do. there is a spillover effect contained in the country that when you move the budget constraint or loosen the budget

constraint, you can't remove it, within the country most of that money comes back in through the multiplier. it is not like if i go into debt going to panera or mcdonald's i don't capture the benefits of mcdonald's and their employees. that fundamental fallacy is there. has a newr at harvard book in january about the moral notions going back to the late 18th century and how they persist today. tom: i don't mean to interrupt, but we have to get ben friedman and adam posen together on this. francine: adam can also come back in december. a monthly catch up. how do you see inflation from until i guess vaccine distribution. adam: i think president

lagarde, governor bailey, at then powell, speaking ecb virtual conference yesterday are rightly playing down the hopes. this is partly a generic thing. a central banker doesn't want to get out on a limb and be overly optimistic, but is partly because'of the labor markets slack.- labor market's when you have slack it is hard advance- it is hard to an economy without wage growth. we were finally starting to get it. without that it is almost impossible to get inflation moving forward. when you look at the next six months, some things will spike. maybe there will be shortages of health care in the non-vaccine-oriented fields. maybe there will be a spike in education costs. the fundamental softness the what drives prices in the western world will remain.

francine: i know you have been really wonderful on brexit, so i have to ask for an update on your thoughts. when you look at the economy we are very near a transition, or the end of the transition period. we don't know what will be signed on. what u.k. economy will we be left with? your dialogueiate with me about brexit. we started talking about this in 2016. what is sad is the things that were clear in 2016 right after the referendum remain clear now. first, politically the leadership class am a particularly in the tory party, have no incentives to more than a bare-bones deal. if you effectively stay in the eu might as well go all the way

down from a political perspective. going all the way down means you are not part of the single market, not part of dynamic alignment for regulations without a seat at the table, and therefore you lose attractiveness as an investment destination and market share on services. you lose access to friction in the gears. third, when there are things to be done to avoid the short-term disruption of trucks backing up in the channel, but the ultimate adjustment has to be made that you are putting up trade in the u.k., putting up trade war on yourself, putting up barriers with your most indefinite trading partner no matter what deal you make. that is where you are. therey, it has to be said is no economic upside because gravity is real. you are not going to replace 50% of your share and economic

interconnections with europe that have developed over centuries. , greatlyk you appreciate the thoughts this morning. coming up next on the fixed income market, the mysteries forward come the yield at 1%, the yield at 3%. it is out there. .his is bloomberg futures up 31. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. shares of disney jumped. the largest entertainment company added more online

subscribers. they are reeling from the impact of the pandemic, but the growth of the disney plus streaming service and gains at the abc broadcast network contributed to a smaller than expected fourth-quarter loss. shares at cisco systems are advising today. they will beat analysts projections. it suggests corporations and governments are starting to spend on networking gear. the trump administration has backed off from its threat to ban tiktok in the u.s.. they faced the prospect of a ban starting yesterday. judges block the prohibition from taking place in the commerce department says they will comply with the court ruling while the legal battle continues. that is the bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you. the markets are focusing maybe on pricing into much news, positive news, from pfizer earlier today. i thought it was telling yesterday to have three central

bankers saying that when the vaccine comes it is not a cure-all. doa stockmarket picker, what you do now? it is clear investors are trying to price in th additional stimulus. perhaps there has been too much encouraging news priced in on the vaccine? tom: i want to go to the foreign exchange complex with the dollar resilience 92.79 on the dxy. the bloomberg dollar strength showing the e.m. in particular, in particular the pacific rim strength. euro 1.1830. a stronger yen. the euro-yen has done nothing. franc.e weaker swiss the turkish lira off of mr. erdogan's change in policy does better. down to 7.66.

almost one big figure on lira in a matter of days. coming up on our simulcast on radio and television, without question our conversation of the day on the pandemic, from the baylor college of medicine on low-cost and global vaccines. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg

surveillance. tom and francine from london and new york. let's talk about covid and some of the vaccinations or treatments. like stone chief executive says lessons learned from collaborations from regulators, pharmaceutical companies, and technologies are set to permanently accelerate drug discovery. >> how many times a day do people ask you when you're vaccine will be available? [laughter] regular question whether it is from employers, the media, or my mother. people have been delighted to see the recent news of some of the first results coming through on vaccines. yesterday i was on a call last night with 10 of the global were heavily who

involved in bringing solutions to covid and we are excited and optimistic to see some of the first data coming through and will be seeing more in the next six month or so. we have three vaccines in the clinic and to therapeutic treatments. -- two therapeutic treatments. >> some people are not willing to take vaccines. 25% are not willing to take it because they think it has been politicized and not safe or don't like vaccines anyway. are you worried people won't take the vaccine? >> of course. we remain concerned about vaccine hesitancy, but we have to be incredibly respectful about why people have these questions. have we been able to move fast? have the companies put in the right processes and skills of trials? what transparency are we going to bring to these processes? why do you here about

things big stopped and what does this mean? our job is to make the commitments we have, and we have publicly alongside other manufacturers, but also make sure that we share data transparently and partner with governments who are ultimately those who guide different countries around policies and distributions to reassure people. are a member of the microsoft board so i assume you have a background in technology and i.t.. how have you been able to apply that to what you're doing? >> i would never describe myself as having a background in technology and i.t. i am sure that is not why i was brought onto the microsoft board. it is an extraordinary company doing extraordinary things in a responsible way at a time when technology is changing the world and industries and i think can be an incredible force for good.

it will be interesting what we 20's ask on on the 20 standing for and meaning. no doubt 2020 loads of people will be writing books about how to go three a covid crisis. there will be books about huge global issues that we will have address, like climate change, inclusivity, climate change, etc. i also believe health resilience will be on the agenda. the advances the world has seen in biology, all of the genetics and genomics data coming through at the same time as the advances in ai and machine learning, combined together, have a real shot over the next decade to improve the productivity of r&d and science in my industry incredibly. to discover hard

new drugs and vaccines. 90% of them fail. it takes a long time. obviously the world is mobilize now to get to faster solutions, and i hope we learn lessons in how we partner with regulators and use new technologies to permanently accelerate some of these processes. with gsk, david rubenstein, "peer to peer." a nice friday list with nice persistence, nicely midrange. set offthe election and the pfizer vaccine comments. what a difference from the 41 three or four weeks ago. oil, nicely above $40. $40.58. brent crude, $43.10.

francine: one thing we have to figure out is if we have a vaccine and everything goes back to normal, do we avoid some of the biggest in the economy we've been talking about? that is what the market is possibly positioned on. overall it is a focus on the u. n. and economies battered by new cases of the coronavirus and how much stimulus governments can put out. u.k. reported record infections despite tightening lock downs there is the brexit chatter and mayhem with the advisors. we will have plenty more on the economy and on markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning. bloomberg surveillance on friday as we reset into the holiday season. said withsen

existential distractions and our politics. one mystery is how this folds into economics and the great international relations debate. matthew horn back with morgan stanley. no one reads more than he does of morgan stanley research. the really sharp question here, is the direction and when of it. interestion and rates, etc. etc., which way will it cut and when? matthew: thank you for having me on. we think inflation is heading higher. has a veryonomy natural cadence to the way in

which it operates, and that cadence to typically generates core inflation. we don't think the overall structure of the economy has changed so much you'll see lower rates of inflation than that. 1.75% corely, inflation is not what the fed is trying to achieve. we think the combination of the fed's new monetary policy strategy and the natural cadence of the u.s. economy over cycles gives a real good chance for the u.s. economy to achieve 2% inflation -- the 2% inflation goal of the feds in the future. what does michael w rite and how do you synthesize the scope and scale of stimulus? we have the senate and everyone

else over size and scale. how do you feel that will play out? matthew: it is absolutely correct to bring this topic up, because fiscal stimulus, the injection of aggregate demand, they are an important component of raising inflation. additionaling for an $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus next year in the u.s. obviously, politics have an important role to play and getting that over the finish line, but we think that is probably the number it gets to next year if, of course, the senate remains in republican hands. that issue is outstanding. pastor january 5 we will have a better -- past january 5 we will have a better idea of how to fine-tune the fiscal stimulus for 2021. we are expecting more stimulus and that should spread demand around sufficiently enough to

get inflation back to 2%. that is the call of our chief u.s. economist. francine: what is your take on if we have a pfizer vaccine or any other vaccine in the next five to six months, how much will that limit scarring in the economy, and how much can that spur inflation? matthew: we absolutely think the distribution of the vaccine not only in the united states but around the world is an important factor in the 2021 outlook. consensus seest the vaccine deployed around the united states and the second quarter of next year. any earlier timeframe then that would be tremendous for the outlook in 2021, but we think it's important to get the vaccine out there. in terms of how it will limit scarring in the economy, naturally the faster we can get people back to work the faster we can get that last person out

to be the first person back in it will naturally limit scarring. it is part of our economics forecast. we definitely think the distribution of a vaccine next year is an important contributor to the outlook. francine: can we be importing inflation from china, even if we don't have a significant stimulus from the u.s.? matthew: trade policy with china is going to be a very interesting issue in 2021. to what degree the tariffs come off, if at all, will naturally be an important factor. 2019we saw in 2018 and when tariffs were going on, we did see certain sectors of the u.s. inflation basket experience higher rates of inflation than you would normally see, but the overall picture for inflation couldn't sustain the 2% level in

the face of those tariffs. to the extent the tariffs are gradually withdrawn, that may in fact present a brighter outlook for inflation as we make our way into 2022 and beyond. don't havests specific calls on the tariff nevertheless we do still have inflation making its way back to 2% as we make our way into 2022. that is the key focus for us. tom: thank you for joining us. short, but in the mid of november we are coming up on a lot of use forward for 2021. i am sure we will hear much from morgan stanley. here is karina mitchell. federal and state election officials couldn't agree more with president trump. thecials who supervised

vote call it the most secure in u.s. history. they say that there is no evidence the system lost, changed votes, or were compromised. some congressional republicans are splitting with president trump over his refusal to acknowledge the outcome. they say joe biden should receive presidential-level intelligence briefings here at president trump started getting briefed one week after his election in 2016. he has refused to allow joe biden the same information. it is make your mind up time for boris johnson. another week of brexit negotiations and today with little progress. thatficials insist reaching a deal will require johnson to move first, a position there british counterparts reject. the pandemic has been a huge learning experience for drugmakers and pharmacies.

>> the world is mobilized right now to get to faster solutions, and i hope we learn lessons in the way we partner with regulators and use new technologies to permanently accelerate some of these processes. karina: don't miss more of david rubenstein's conversations with emma walmsley. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: thank you. greatly appreciate that this morning. upures up 27, dow futures 231. stay with us on economics and finance and our continuing political coverage. david westin, the balance of power, look for that at 12:00 noon. this is bloomberg. ♪

karina: coming up later today, the mastercard chairman and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> despite the many challenges and hardships, i am proud to say that we have been steadfast in managing our businesses under enormously difficult circumstances. we haven't just press revered during these tough times, we have taken a number of deliberate steps and smart risks and have positioned our company for greater long-term growth. tom: it has been extraordinary. the disney report from chapekay, robert reporting.

that should have been the one stock that was hammered, yet they have not. acute research on all of the stuff we are living now. michael, did you predict disney would be so resilient? did not predict the disney stock price would be so resilient. i have been through two recessions with disney. of parkshe weakness and advertising pressures the stocks for a while. this wasn't that time. tom: i watched the next episode of mandalorian. they are doing star wars stuff and paying john favreau more than god. is anyone profiting? likeel: at this point, netflix, you are looking out to a few years and saying i can see in three or four years how big this business is going to be.

that is what you need to do. you need to go to 2024 and start discounting back. francine: michael, i don't make predictions, but we use so much of the streaming service it is no wonder they are doing so well. at the moment they are chipping away at netflix. is this a trend that can continue? does it stop if we have a vaccine and everyone goes back to work? a good: that is question. what happened in the early part of the pandemic was a pull forward and subscribers. has,you see what disney when things open up again, whenever that is, the streaming low but it is inevitable. it is a more efficient way to watch television and a better product than watching our

old-fashioned bundle at this point. tom: take it beyond disney. looking into 2021, is it a pricing that has occurred off the pandemic, or can there be an acceleration of the income statement? michael: it depends on when we open up. disney'sst quarter, part business fell by 61%. they lost over $1 billion. at some point, logically, when you start getting the economy open, disney has a massive benefit, including the parks and the studio where they can release films. you would also argue live sports have been impacted because of the cancellations. they have become a covid-19 winner, right. they benefit from streaming when the economy is closed.

when the economy opens they have natural places to win. from our view it is the stock is pretty much back to where it was before the pandemic occurred. the earnings have been crushed. rightms we priced in away. that has been our challenge. the distribution world, the comcast world, how does that dovetail into the pandemic and the streaming success? michael: we are much more craig'sin our shop on coverage. good for him. what we and you have observed is the importance of broadband to anyone working from home. to francine's point about the growth of streaming, you cannot stream without broadband. craig's companies are key

hole company is benefiting from long time of rolling out faster and faster broadband speeds. their pricing power. we think that is where investors should be positioned. we are very much overweight and negativenies on my companies because we think this trend of moving to broadband and streaming is bad for the video bundle. my companies don't have another way, besides disney, to move away from their old model effectively. disney is the only company that has shown the ability to pivot. the rest of the sector will have a hard time making this transition. challenge the can disney plus streaming service, especially in emerging markets? will we see more chinese streaming service companies

coming online? will that take the brunt of the market share? michael: it is interesting. we call this out in our note. emerging markets, really india, has been a godsend for disney. they bought a business from fox called star. 25% of their streaming companies are -- streaming customers are in india. they are leveraging their disney content, indian content, and some sports content. india and indonesia have been good for disney. i don't see the chinese services , in india and asia, taking a lot of share. disney has the secret sauce of their brand, their library. the other markets are really good for disney, namely india. that is one of the benefits of buying fox, they got a good position in india. that is a nice part of the story for them. francine: thank you.

michael nathanson. oning up, plenty more streaming services and we will talk about covid-19 as we continue to track the virus. hopkins university professor and virologist. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. as we continue to track the virus, bloomberg has developed a partnership with a leading authority of covid-19. johns hopkins has been on the forefront of the international response. every day we bring you insights from the sectors of public health and emergency preparedness. dr. pekosz, thank you for joining us. when you look at the pfizer news, are we putting too much hope in this? what are the major concerns you have?

how you distribute it or that the trial will mean a vaccine in the next two to three months? dr. pekosz: it is good to be optimistic. the press release gave us good numbers for the initial vaccine efficacy studies for the vaccine. pfizer is the first of several of the same kinds of vaccines, so that bodes well for some of the other clinical trials going on. it is the granularity of the data. we have to realize it is different to vaccinate children versus adults versus the elderly. we don't know any of that information in terms of how well different groups respond in being protected. i think the issue with pfizer that really comes through is in terms of distribution. the vaccine needs to be stored at very cold temperatures to ensure long-term stability. that infrastructure may be a challenge in terms of distributing the vaccine eventually.

francine: what do the mink farms in denmark tell us about how the virus is changing? dr. pekosz: we haven't seen the firm scientific data, but it seems the virus has made a jump into the mink population from humans. that has occurred in multiple countries around the world. in denmark they have had some transmission in the mink transmission back into humans. that is what we call a reverse zoo aninosis. the important thing is the virus has a couple of changes in its surface protein that appear to affect the ability of antibodies to bind to that. it will be important for us to monitor the outbreak in denmark to see if the virus is something that is a little different. the analogy i use is influenza

where we have seasonal changes in the virus that force us to update the vaccine on an annual basis. this may be an example of the virus changing and that way. animalsis culling the to control the outbreak, and we will monitor the virus to see how fit that virus is to spread into the human population and how much it has affected its overall antigenic structure. francine: can you give me a sense of once we have the correct formula and the vaccine starts to be distributed, there will be a list of priorities, right? at risk or certain age groups. when will it be widely available for everyone? dr. pekosz: that will take some time. there are two things that limit the widespread distribution. the availability of vaccine. the vaccine manufacturers have gotten ahead start in many cases

in terms of generating their vaccine, but the vaccine requires two doses, so that makes a big hit in terms of how many people can be effectively immunized. you will see a scaling up of populations. we will probably be focusing on frontline responders and health care workers, as well as some of the parts of the population who are very susceptible to the severe disease, as the first group of individuals getting vaccinated. you won't see widespread distribution of the vaccine to the general public until sometime in the middle of next year, simply because right now we only have one vaccine that looks like it will get some approval soon. it will be very limited in terms of the number of people who can be immunized for the first few months. francine: there are a number of questions about testing and if these are reliable positive tests, false positives and false

negatives. about it aweeting few hours ago. do these debates undermine the credibility of what we know works? dr. pekosz: we know that a lot of tests have been rolled out under the emergency use authorization. that means there are signals that the tests worked well, but it requires more testing to make sure we have a broader sense of how it works under unique situations. it is important to understand what test you are getting. pcrt an antigen test, a test? it is important to put that into context that a test itself should never be relied on 100% in terms of providing you some protection. you have to take the test in context. an antigen test may be borderline positive early in the infection, but by the time that you show symptoms it may be a very strong test at that time.

testing is not the be-all, end-all solution. it is one part of our approach to this outbreak that can limit the spread of the virus, which is everyone knows, particularly in the u.s. and parts of europe, is incredibly widespread today. francine: thank you so much. dr. pekosz from johns hopkins. every day forn our exclusive conversations with johns hopkins experts for an inside look at covid-19. we started the week with encouraging news from pfizer, and as we keep reading about it the question is how long the protection lasts. this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,

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>> is necessary in some form, the sooner the better -- stimulus is necessary in some form, the sooner the better. >> it will take time for the vaccine to be deployed, and we still have many hurdles. >> we will see perhaps less volatility then we have seen so far this year. >> next year i think we will get back to normal. >> we remain in a bull market. if anything, the patterns are magnified. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with equity futures nicely positive, we've got to bookend of monday the hope with the brutal reality of the covid statistics in america this friday morning. tom: extraordinary to see the market levels after