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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 13, 2020 7:00am-8:00am EST

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>> is necessary in some form, the sooner the better -- stimulus is necessary in some form, the sooner the better. >> it will take time for the vaccine to be deployed, and we still have many hurdles. >> we will see perhaps less volatility then we have seen so far this year. >> next year i think we will get back to normal. >> we remain in a bull market. if anything, the patterns are magnified. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. with equity futures nicely positive, we've got to bookend of monday the hope with the brutal reality of the covid statistics in america this friday morning. tom: extraordinary to see the market levels after the pfizer
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vaccine. i love what greg valliere published minutes ago, where he says this is a humanitarian crisis, and another word he uses in his terse note is acceleration. not only acceleration of chases and deaths, but this is about the medical industry and the hospitalizations. peter hotez scheduled to be with us later this morning. jonathan: in various places around the country, the health care system is being overwhelmed. the caseload has gone from about 77,000 at the start of this around 150,000. silent, anduse is congress isn't looking at a fiscal package right now. they are looking at nominating judy shelton to the federal reserve. for this market, the policy focus isn't there. tom: what is interesting is the
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incongruence of the president and the care he got at walter reed, whereas from sea to shining sea, it is not happening. i cannot convey the strangeness of american media, election, election, election, and below the fold is here is the mass of the pandemic. jonathan: we've got a crisis. in the bond market, lisa abramowicz, monday, yields to the moon. by the time we get to friday, 88 basis points on the 10 year. lisa: you guys are talking about how there isn't that much pressure in washington to do anything, and there's the feeling of looking past this all, but markets are not giving any pressure. they are saying near term, it looks bad, but long-term, it looks great. the cpi datagot that came in weaker than expected. today i did: 30 am, we get the u.s. october producer price index, also expected to show
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deceleration, highlighting how perhaps demand isn't picking up to the degree people had expected as the virus takes off and grows exponentially. 10:00 a.m., university of michigan sentiment index. a question of how our consumers looking at the pandemic and adjusting their views of the economy as a result, their purchases, their purchases, the confidence level, versus looking past it all to a time of the vaccine. 11:00 a.m., nancy pelosi holding a weekly press conference. it will be very interesting to see how much she emphasizes trying to pass a fiscal package. mitch mcconnell really taking the helm here because the trump prime minister agent has stepped away. now they have to bridge this -- the trump administration has stepped away. now they have to bridge this gap , which highlights the need for a less large stimulus package, akin to what they were looking for in september and a cobra. -- end october. jonathan: bridging that gap
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between the darkening near term outlook and the forward outlook improving, that continues. the mood of this market is getting whipsawed by that. futures this morning up another 0.7%. we advance 25 points. on euro-dollar, basically unchanged, but the mood of this market is in the bond market. monday, yields up, hoping for a better future in 2021, and then yields down again as we start to digest and process the reality that many states across america have to introduce new restrictions. your yield 88 basis points. tom: part of that is the election. we should note that arizona for biden, that is important in election 2020. also, the chinese showed up and gave greetings to the president-elect. jonathan: what did you make of that? i thought it was interesting that just after this government announced a ban on investing in certain chinese companies, that china comes out the following
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morning and says congratulations mr. biden. tom: i would say it is going to be an event for friday. i am unsure how the president gets to the sunday talk shows and how he positions himself for his future. jonathan: i am not sure how interested the president is in the sunday talk shows this coming weekend. julian emanuel joins us now, btig chief equity and derivatives strategist. let's pause for a moment. monday, positive vaccine news. cyclical rotation that everyone was looking for, we all want to live in the back half of 2021. then we are confronted with the reality of the next few days. can you walk me through how you are navigating it? i've asked every single guest that question every day. what is your response? julian: it is incredibly challenging. to an outside observer or someone who landed from mars, the idea that you could have profoundly great news on monday
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and have a top in the market that looks to us like it could be the high for the year is very counterintuitive, but that is the world of the financial world. you have toity is get through this transition period from the hope of the vaccine, whenever that is, with the reality of the fact that honestly, the virus is really breaking out of control. that is the challenge, and the markets are just trying to digest it. for now, it is really standoff, which is not a bad result, to be frank, given the way the cases are spiking. tom: i look at this and think of distribution. we have been distributing within this noise through september and october. what is wrong with going flash for a while -- going flat for a while? julian: nothing is wrong with
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it. from our point of view, bull markets correct in time and price. with a really if you look at it, the nasdaq topped on september 2, although the other indices made all-time highs on monday. this consolidation process has gone on for a couple of months, and from our point of view, again, sideways, really given the news, would not be a bad thing at all. we do think the set up are 2021 is quite positive. lisa: what does that mean as an investor? more cash now looking for an entry point? julian: i think what it means is , first of all, we do believe in a cyclical rotation. we think you should be reducing some of your exposure to high multiple, high-growth technology centric, work from home names. anestly, when you get to point where the vaccine comes
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closer to reality, that will cause acceleration. rotate into financials. we think health care is an exceptionally interesting proposition, having been battered because of politics and trading at an extreme discount. if you've got gains, we think optionality is very inexpensive, downside protection. what general, patients is what is required -- but in general, patience is what is required. jonathan: it seems to be we've had a series of head fakes over the last six to nine months. what you need was the optionality, and then cash out of it and go back to tech again. it seems to me that has worked repeatedly over the last several years. every time we have had the rotation head fake, the people that have really benefited where the people who had the position on going into the head fake, and use everyone else to fade out of it. collins of with mike
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pgim yesterday who was doing just that. he used the rally to sell it down. why is that not the better approach? julian: from our point of view, the psychology actually began to innge at the parabolic high the nasdaq on september 2, and we think that the market is giving you information when you look back to monday with the nasdaq being the only major index that didn't make a new all-time high. when you look toward next year, the hope of a washington that is going to be centrist, that is likely going to get stimulus over the line, even if it unfortunately does have to wait until a new session of congress, that might engage in infrastructure spending and really taking down the temperature of washington, all of these things are going to backup confidence, and we think you get this cyclical recovery not only in the u.s., but as we have seen, the monetary
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authorities in europe are going to be as aggressive, if not more than the u.s., so you get the cyclical theme playing out in markets like europe and japan. it is just a change in psychology, and we have seen a massive momentum shift that we don't think investors should be ignoring. lisa: how do you price in economic scarring that extends from what we have been experiencing as a result of the pandemic? julian: that is really the challenge of the concept. part of what that means, and this is the typical coming out of the sessions into recoveries, but it may be more exaggerated this time, is that you get a degree of multiple compression because if you get to a point where the next three to six months, you have permanent business closures and an increase in permanent job losses, that means your long-run growth potential shifts, and what used to be called nehru shifts higher. that is a different mindset,
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given the fact that there is expectation that people think unemployment will eventually go back to 3.5% or 4%, and that is not going to be the reality if we get economic starring -- economic scarring. jonathan: tom has been far too quiet. can you give me your view on judy shelton potentially being confirmed to the federal reserve? julian: well, i think it really points to the fact that washington has been a bit too political and backward looking these last several months. we, like jay powell, have been adamant in the need for more stimulus. like, backward looking into the 19th century? julian: well, william jennings bryant didn't want to perish on the cross of gold, but frankly, the gold window shut with richard nixon. we look forward, and we need to
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get stimulus, and we need to talk about the issues in 2021. tell that on julian'sf dresse -- on julian's dresser packed there, he's got a stack of programs -- of kruger ands. [laughter] jonathan: let me just pull you back in a little bit. tom: the international question, to brine or not to brine. lisa: still on this. jonathan: i know we will focus on this all throughout thanksgiving. [laughter] coming up in the next hour, dr. peter hotez. . for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. statement, they say last
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week's election was the most secure in american history. they say there's no evidence that any voting system lost votes or was in any way compromised. china has congratulated joe biden and kamala harris on winning the presidential election. speculationays of about when beijing would formally acknowledge the victory. china was one of the few countries that had so far withheld comment. the reaction came after several television networks rejected biden -- networks projected biden would defeat president trump in arizona. disney added more online subscribers then predicted last quarter. disney is still reeling from the impact of the pandemic, but the growth of the disney plus streaming service has softened the blow, and abc network and treated to a smaller than expected loss lisa:. -- smaller than expected loss.
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global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> officials who clearly know better are going along with this, are humoring him in this fashion. it is one more step in
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delegitimizing not just the incoming biden administration, but democracy in general. that is a dangerous path. jonathan: former president barack obama on "60 minutes" with a message for republicans. from new york and london this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this friday morning. what a week it has been. we talked all week about the near-term risk, the long-term opportunities, the tug-of-war between the two. the story in the market right now, equities up another 24 points on the s&p 500. the bulls out big time through the end of the week. euro-dollar, $1.1816. we believed lower on 10 year yields, down about a basis point or so to 0.8783%. in the commodity market, after a big rally, crew to settling down and settling in and around
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$40.50. tom: the note for me this week is the dollar resiliency. there's a lot of distractions, .ut i just look at 92.89 on dxy i don't think i knew it was going to be there. inwe do politics, we do it our own way with smart voices. one of them is emily wilkins, bloomberg government reporter and "surveillance" librarian. mr. obama is going to launch a book. what is it, 200 pages? 768.han: tom: there you go. you all by the book, but does anybody actually read it? i think most people buy it, flip to the back to the index to see if their name is in it, and then go from there. [laughter] hearnk people want to
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president obama's thoughts from his time in the white house. tom: we talked to you a lot this week. what is different about this friday? what is the focal point on this friday? emily: one of the most interesting things we have seen is more republican senators come out and say that joe biden needs to start getting intelligence briefings. they don't go as far as to say he has won the election. they are still trying to honor president trump's cases in court , but they say it is important that he get these intelligence briefings that he would get as president of the united states. jonathan: can you talk to us about the latest counts in arizona and where we are in a number of states that the president is still challenging? emily: arizona was a little interesting because soon after election night, it got called for biden by the apn fox news -- by the ap and fox news.
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several other networks held out, and we saw the margins get pretty slim. did seeht, we those other networks call arizona for biden. this brings his number of votes up tollege the same level that trump won with in 2016. lisa: the markets do not see this as a contested election. they see joe biden as the winner, and going to be the president. probably, the people you speak with say that as well, if perhaps not on the record. they are moving past that to the question of whether any fiscal support can get passed. it seems like mitch mcconnell is holding onto a skinny deal. it looks like it is very difficult to bridge any gaps with democrats. do you expect anything in the next couple of months on that front? emily:emily: that is a fantastic question that everyone is going to be turning to now that the electrode -- now that the election results are more decided. is mitchave seen their
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mcconnell take over some of the negotiating from the white house . it seems like senator mitch mcconnell will have a larger role. we heard pelosi say yesterday that she wants big stimulus, that that is important to her, that he wantssay nothing more than narrow. tom: the republican senate does not want to give money to people new york, people detroit, people blah blah blah. what do they say to republican cities desperate for aid? emily: number one, they do point to a number of states that are controlled by democrats, but the others are arguing that they need to be fiscally responsible. that they have already poured a
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bunch of money into the economy, and they need to make sure they are pouring more trillions into the economy and should be careful about how they do that. that's why we have seen smaller values on what they are proposing in these stimulus bills. jonathan: the president coming under a lot of criticism over the last week for being silent, and not just silent on the election, publicly silent on the issue of covid-19. hasn't faced the cameras now for a week. the question i still can't get an answer to is what the governors of these states that have been hit are asking for and aren't getting right now from the federal government. what are the requests on the table right now that aren't being answered? emily: i think it is a variety of things. more funding, more direction, just more guidance. i thing it is easier for a lot of americans do not necessarily look at their government, but look at the president to see how they are talking about this.
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covid is rising in every state. to some extent, there are governors looking for trump to be that national leader during this time of crisis and gibbs -- and give some sort of message to the american people on how we need to move forward. jonathan: not defending the president, but what can the governors do that they can't do without the president's help? i am surprised that many have not issued a mask mandate. even -- emily: even biden has admitted he can't really do a national mask mandate. i think a number of them have their eyes on congress and that stimulus to have something occur because congress is the one with the power of the purse. if you need funding to get things done, you don't look necessarily to the executive
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branch is much as you look to the legislative branch. i think there's hope that something could potential he be done in congress, and that can flow down and help the states. jonathan: emily, thank you. right to catch up, as always. i think this is the challenge right now, how reluctant governors may or may not be right to issue stay-at-home orders without physical help, without the extra federal aid coming from this government. what moves first? do they just get desperate and have to do it because the numbers get so bad? tom: that is the only thing that is going to move washington. it got to go out and lay off 5000, 9 thousand, 12,000, and then maybe you get some action. at the mta in new york tells me he needs $12 billion into next year. that is a big number. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. piotr up on this program, matys on quite a year so far for emerging markets.
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pretty much every cross asset strategist we speak to once that em lead. tom: the beautiful view, radio, of london. jonathan: just wonderful. tom: it is like 12 degrees here. [laughter] lisa: beautiful, too. ♪
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♪ jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." what a week. we started monday with a huge burst of cyclical appetite. ?hat does that mean everything nicely bid. get your head around that. small caps advancing 0.75 percent. that is the story in the united states. the start of the week, a bias for the small caps. the back half of the week, i bias for the big tech players. this is the trade that everybody once to work, the trade into europe. the cyclicals. the value. the banks. all of that good stuff. the euro stoxx up a little more than 7%. were up 8%. we've had a huge rally.
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switch of the board. let me just wrap things up. we are going to get you to do this one day. in the bond market, yields coming down 70 basis points on the two-year. year. get to the 30 i'm not sure that would work here. [laughter] yield, 1.64%. the story in the 10 year is we end the week where we start the week at 87 basis points. i'm going to take a while to get back to my position as i just shuttle away. [laughter] to do the just wants premier league thing. this,i look at all of earlier this week we talked about existential distractions. it is amazing that the market is ourerates, and may be
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most important measurement now given all of these existential event. when you talkay, about the cyclicals, the banks, the huge boon to them, you look at the yield curve and it is absolutely slammed in. makee don't know what to of long-term growth. how long-lasting can the bullish feel continue? peter matus -- pewter matus atys joins us now of rabobank. what is so important here is the distention of the pacific rim versus everything else. is em doing better, or is it just an asian story? from the you look perspective of containing the coronavirus pandemic, definitely asia is doing much better, and
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this is reflected in the price action with asian currencies outperforming other em. i think there's a lot of reasons to be cautiously optimistic looking into 2021. i think the actual policy will be able to catch up in asia next year. tom: that is a really important insight. what is the why of the catch-up? , we seet the moment currencies underperforming because of the second wave of the pandemic. but governments are determined to save as many jobs as possible. we going to have strong impulse from the eu construction fund,
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and those funds should be redistributed at some stage next year. interest rates in the region are also very low. i think there's going to be some impulse from domestic demand once the pandemic is under control. tom: i think it is amazing to see hungarian forint, a 14% depreciation from euro. that is much greater depreciation then i think people understand. jonathan: i would like to bring the dollar into the conversation as well because it has been so resilient through this week. we started this week opened up on the dollar index. right now, 92.88. typically, you know the story. cyclical appetite returns. that growth impact comes back. not this week. why? piotr: i think the markets have realized after this outburst of that thingsmonday
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will continue to be unclear as long as a vaccine is not available. there is some pullback. after that, perhaps this transition of power from trump could lend to some doubt. the dollar is benefiting from those doubts. but i think that overall, it is going to beget vogel -- going to be difficult for the dollar to resume bullish moment,. jonathan: what are you telling fixed income debts at the moment? are you suggesting they take on local currency risk as well? piotr: yields a crossed em are still substantially higher , so there ism
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still scope for those capital .nflows to accelerate into em i anticipate 2021 to be a much better year when we return to normality. i think that capital inflows should accelerate next year. lisa: some people are saying if we do see a vaccine, we are going to get more strength in commodities and oil prices, which will be good for commodity producing emerging markets. do you buy that argument given the fact that the iea have come out and downgraded expectations for demand since we don't have the vaccine yet, and it is going to take a while? piotr: there's still lots of uncertainty. economy, there's greater momentum that is going to push commodity prices higher and a various em commodity
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purchasers will benefit from that. until still have to wait that diminishes. we don't know how quickly it will be distributed, and until that uncertainty diminishes, i think that commodity prices will struggle to regain upside momentum. you: what is the narrative advise to use going forward? piotr: i think what is going to be crucial is we have to differentiate between em. at this stage, em asia has been outperforming, but there should be rotation towards other em the 21.nto i am going to promote central eastern europe because this is
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my area of expertise. think that currencies from the region will prove attractive to foreign investors looking for growth em.es in countries like poland and hungary should regain growth momentum much quicker then developed economies. tom: thank you so much. greatly appreciate it, typically on something i have ignored too much, eastern europe. i think one of the example of these linkages, there's a brutal dynamics andro and eastern europe. it is completely different in america, how many of those nations, tangible asset transactions like housing are linked into you are dead ebix -- into urodynamics. jonathan: you remember -- into euro dynamics. jonathan: you remember when many
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of those countries bought into swiss francs. that was a problem for them. i am not sure how maybe will made the same mistake again, but certainly it has been a real problem. tom: i want to take a minute or two for you to translate for our primetime american audience what is going on at 10 downing street. in my right that it is interesting -- my right that it is interesting and a soap opera, but this time it is not funny? , right on that? jonathan: i don't think it is ever funny. i don't think the bridge that conversation is ever that engaging either. but when it comes to the team around the prime minister, let's put the names to the side and think about the core group. the progress that names are starting to fade away -- the pro brexit names are starting to fade away. some people believe that means we are going down the path towards a deal. that is the signal it sends for some people. those people who have stepped away from this government would
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advise the prime minister as saying that is not the case. a couple of weeks ago, before we had the lockdown announcement, it leaked. many people blamed the prime ministers advisor for leaking that. so there's a lot of confusion in the united kingdom at the moment. the bottom line, it is not funny because what you want is a team together all pushing in the same direction as we work our way through a crisis in this country. in fact, we have potentially two. tom: in washington, i would to just even the president's most ardent supporters would say he is sequestered away. it is prime minister johnson sequestered away? jonathan: the prime esther has to do with two issues. he has to deal with the shutdown , working our way through early december. on top of that, they've got to have a deal done with the european union before year end. this government is still working, still functioning.
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maybe not in the way people would like, but i think we all want to see the prime minister have a team around him. right now, that is not the case. tom: sterling really quiets in this week's through all of the social and political uproar in the united kingdom. what do you see on the screen? jonathan: i thick we have a lot of dovishness out of the central bankers yesterday. chairman powell, president lagarde, governor bailey. this from kit juckes this morning, "they warned against euphoria, the promise of easy money. " you got central bankers telling you don't get carried away come but at the same time, we are here for you. what do you do if you are a market participant in that environment? tom: i am going to note renminbi breaking down as well. centrala message from bankers as they beg for fiscal relief, but where do you see the fiscal relief? i don't see it. lisa: i would agree.
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jonathan: lisa agrees. i agree. lisa, tom knows this. when there's three people in different locations, if you say both of their names and they don't want to step on each other come that is the end result. come on, tom. basics. coming up, timothy nolan. looking forward to that, on the walt disney company. this is bloomberg. ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. federal and state election officials couldn't disagree more with president trump. the president has made baseless claims widespread voting fraud, but officials with supervise the vote call it the most secure election in history. they say there is no evidence the election was compromised. some congressional republicans are splitting with president trump over his refusal to acknowledge the outcome of the election. they say joe biden should receive presidential
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intelligence briefings. president trump started getting briefed week after his election in 2016. so far, he has refused to allow biden to get the information. a grim milestone in california. the state has had more than one million coronavirus infections. the cdc says almost no part of the country has been spared in the latest surge. a new study says the fatality rate of infected people in the u.s. has fallen 30% since april. still, researchers forecast deaths could hit 2200 today by mid-january. ceo elon muskire says he has tested positive for coronavirus. musk tweeted he is experiencing symptoms of a typical cold, nothing in usual so far. still, musk was skeptical of the testing process, saying that of four tests using the same machine, two came back negative. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more
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than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the path forward is going to be challenging for a number of reasons. my sense is that we will need to
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do more, and that congress may need to do more as well. the actual particulars of that are up to congress and not up to us, but i do think it is likely that more will need to be done in time. jonathan: chairman powell looking for a darts partner. doesn't have one right now. really interesting panel. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this friday, really offensive. became a little more defensive as the trading week grew a little older. we advanced 24 on the s&p 500, up 0.7%. market, much talk about breaching that 1% level on the u.s. 10. we got close, then pulled all the way back to 88 basis points. pretty much flat in this morning's trade. i think it is one of the more interesting features of this week, and perhaps one of the more complex and confusing features of the trading week, the stability of the u.s.
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dollar. $1.1815.ar, even with the return of cyclical appetite, the dollar did not give way. thati do want to point out the ambassador who joined us yesterday on "bloomberg surveillance" has just tweeted that it seems only fair and right that president-elect biden gets access to daily intelligence briefings of the president. of course, he's president of the council on foreign relations. the president of the pandemic and what it means for the media business is timothy nolan at macquarrie bank. a wonderful career, including at bear stearns years ago. his knee out. i get it. they are a juggernaut. but even the juggernaut's ebita has been cut in half. how long can the industry sustain where it is given a worsening pandemic?
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timothy: first, thanks for having me. disney is such a large, sprawling organization with so many different parts to the business, including now the direct to consumer subscription business, which is carrying it through this downturn here. it's outpost results yesterday, it became even more evident as as weeen with other -- have seen with other media companies that parks will remain closed for some time, and will be further drying out then we had hoped. office and have box parks revenues getting back to until 2023, levels 2024, which is unfortunate, but disney has done a very good job with cost-cutting. businesst to consumer is flying high.
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lisa: the sexiest part of their business has been the disney+ offering. some saying they were going to be the netflix killer. disney shares are down more than 6% year to date, although they are up ahead of the market today with more than 3%. is there justification to this concept that disney+ could be a netflix killer at some point in the future? it as a i don't view netflix killer. i view it as another very strong direct to consumer subscription service. is now at 75ey million subscribers globally. that is going to jump next week when they launch in latin america. netflix will be at around 200 million global subscribers as of this year. we have been does netting that level in a couple of years on disney+. i think they are just very
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different, very popular services. as you have seen, amazon prime has done well while netflix has grown. so i think there's room for of these types of services, and disney+ is absolutely one of those. the reason disney stock is down is, as you referenced before, the parks and the studio businesses have just been decimated on the revenue side by the pandemic. lisa: when do you see disney plus providing enough of a profit cushion to cushion perhaps the slow recovery of these other businesses. the scopet depends on of the bounceback. in the june quarter coming up in fiscal 2021, we will be cycling against the sharp drop down already from parks and studio. we have those businesses actually growing again just
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because the year on year comparison gets so much easier. let's hope we are getting visitation and box offices back up again. it is a few years until you get back to the revenue levels of those businesses. box office is another question, whether there is another direct to consumer wave coming with movies as opposed to pushing the box offices as much. direct to consumer meanwhile, we will find out a lot more december 10 when disney has investor day. there may be a big announcement about a lot more investments to come. done so well. you would think he might win to invest further in that. there may still be a few years of downside. i just think in terms of the stock, it doesn't really matter that much. we know now that disney is a direct to consumer powerful player, and that is what matters in people's minds. that will keep things going. coming up come we are going
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to talk with james bevan of ccla. i am really looking forward to that. i think bevan has a whole scope and scale of growthiness, value and big cap which we have not talked about this week. jonathan: something you mentioned earlier this week, how companies have responded. they faced a really big stress test earlier this year. -- take the boat disney company. it's resorts business, parks, experiences, all of that, now we are starting to build up the direct to consumer side of things. that is going to give it a nice little hedge in the years to come in situations like this. what i thought was interesting hearing from the starbucks chief executive basically saying we know how to live and work in this environment now, some of these companies that have been stress tested once, let's hope
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they fare better this time around as we work our way through a cold winter. tom: this goes to the pandemic, as well as the perfect weather we have had a new york. drifts away, there's no other way to put it. november is finally here. i'll be honest, i am listening for the mayor of new york or the governor of this empire state to speak today. the markete saw react yesterday, you will wonder how the market will take it on this friday. jonathan: reacting to the mayor of chicago issuing that statement on advisory. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. much more still to come on this. the near-term risks are clear. the direction of the travel of the pandemic, not great. the restrictions, there are more of the incoming. onr that with the tug-of-war the hope in the back half of 2021. futures higher, up 24, we
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advanced 0.7%. up next on this program, james bevan of ccla. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?
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now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. >> stimulus is necessary in some form. the sooner the better. >> the vaccine is really the game changer here to bring us back to normalcy. >> it will take time for the vaccine to be deployed, and in the meantime, we still have many hurdles. >> we will see perhaps less volatility then we have seen so far this year. >> the growth will pick up a lot in the second half of next year. i think we will get back tomorrow will -- back to normal. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance

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