and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. >> stimulus is necessary in some form. the sooner the better. >> the vaccine is really the game changer here to bring us back to normalcy. >> it will take time for the vaccine to be deployed, and in the meantime, we still have many hurdles. >> we will see perhaps less volatility then we have seen so far this year. >> the growth will pick up a lot in the second half of next year. i think we will get back tomorrow will -- back to normal. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," a simulcast.

good morning on bloomberg radio. good morning on bloomberg television. it is extraordinary to be the beginning on global wall street of the holiday season, and i can never -- i can never think, even the tragedy of 9/11, i can't imagine how much of a tragedy this holiday will be with the pandemic. jonathan: the numbers are terrible. we talked about it an hour ago. we started this month with daily infections in and around 80,000. that has doubled in 11 days. if health care capacity gets tested, they will start to introduce more restrictions. here's the critical issue. who is going to step in?

where the fiscal policy maker? bridgewaterf says we have a mismatch between the length of the pandemic and the willingness of fiscal policy makers to do something in equal length. tom: it has widened out, without question. what is so important here is to gauge the pandemic, and we are all doing that on a local basis. you and i, we hear more sirens's again in new york city, and we are all dealing with the announcements to come, widely expected in manhattan. lisa: i am not going to be doom and gloom because that bill went and got a turkey for you yesterday in central park. there's a feeling it will end. have even anthony felt he coming out and saying the pandemic will end, the vaccine is effective. my question is how much do companies ramp up spending? how much consumers feel free to

spend even if it looks pretty bleak on a near-term basis because they do believe the jobs will come back? how much will the hope carry out into actuality during a very bleak time? thethan: the arch -- tom: arch issue here is monetary officials begging for fiscal, and yet some of the data shows a supportive economy. jonathan: we had a shock to incomes eight months ago. we didn't have an income crisis. in fact, disposable income went up in america. the last thing we want to see in 4q is a shock to income without the income replacement coming from the federal government. that is the huge risk of this market. where do you want to live, the back end of 2021 or in the here and now? if you live in the back end of 2021, you've got a different outlook. tom: oil elevated above $40.

the dollar resilient this morning. , 104.86. remarkable,eally from a 41 down to 24. there's only one person buying at 41, and that was james bevan, who was long with ccla. he's one of our most acute voices on conservative long-term investment, and he has been right in this bull market. james bevan, can you maintain your optimism with the changed pandemic? about fiscal think policy, the big question is, as you correctly articulated, is whether or not we would see more spending to get us onto the other side of the current economic downturn. i believe the government will be prepared to spend more precisely because there's a confidence that we will see in into the

crisis in due course. that means we will see genuine economic recovery, corporate earnings growth. , yields willct stay low. that is great for equities, excellent for policy, and very supportive for consumers in due course who want to be able to spend a lot more money. jonathan: what you described is working here in the united kingdom, that beautiful choreography between the treasury and the bank of england. can you say the same thing about the u.s. right now? james: interestingly, i think there was brought expectation that had there been a blue suite, we would have been -- eep, we perhaps would have seen mr. biden getting two point $5 trillion to spend on new fiscal measures. think a deal with a republican senate would be far more tricky,

perhaps no more than 500 billion dollars. however, now that we have clarity that there is a vaccine, isaac mr. biden will get an extra -- i think mr. biden will get an extra $1 trillion. jonathan: what gives you that confidence? james: first off, there is i think a broad come across party theptance that the states, government have to do more to end the challenge. i don't believe the republicans will wish to kill the u.s. economy because it will play very badly for their futures of election. i think the second issue is there is a subtle change in the jerome powellthat is having. he has been very targeted this .s support of the bond market

absolutely, i think you are going to be providing the base plate to have continued load wheeled -- continued low yield. lisa: i believe you were calling for the s&p to reach 3800 by mid 2021, and 4000 by the end of the year. james: i am not overly dependent on fiscal support to get there the support i think we should be investing in our high quality companies. you were talking to the break about prospects for disney. i would take the recent share as anweakness opportunity. if i were to think about some of the great companies in medical .echnology

tom: this is an incredibly important insights. we haven't discussed this in 10 or 15 days because of the election. on the health care play, it is simple, johnson & johnson and three other names, etc. take us beneath that. tell us not about the specifics, but the somatic play of those stocks given a biden administration. ises: the first key issue that as people get older, their medical care becomes more partsx into issues like replacement, hip operations, dialysis for people who have challenges with their kidneys. these are all issues where we see increasing spend in the years ahead. so-called elective operations, where people choose if and when they have such operations, where it shelved, and inevitably, there is a big hit to short-term .arnings

[indiscernible] tom: will there be a rollup of the industry? there's been rollup's of other industries. what are we waiting for in the ?ealth care space james: people talk about extraordinary performance of alphabet, for example, and the faangs. in recent years, domino pizza has thoroughly outperformed alphabet. it has spent cash and issued debt, so it has magnified its earnings-per-share. if alphabet had played the same game, it would be reporting earnings-per-share not quite at the current level.

i think this issue of using cheap debt to fund m&a, to fund engineering, and it continues as long as we have ample credit. jonathan: i've got to jump in because you sound so constructive. just a final question on where you have things right now. you're not playing it through the european banks. when the optimism returned, where do people go? the european banks. why aren't you doing the same thing? james: i think european banks remain an accident waiting to happen. negative interest rates mean we have higher saving rates rather than more spending. i see no expectation that the european central bank will come to the rescue tom: james bevan of c -- to the rescue. jonathan: james bevan of ccla, thank you. a really bullish story throughout this week. this coming from secretary alex azar, the health secretary in the united states, in an

interview with foxbusiness. "enough of the covid vaccine for all u.s. seniors by january." that is the headline that comes from alex azar. it goes on to say that schools, workplaces, and airlines are not vectors of the spread. that is the position of the health secretary in the last minute. tom: i think it will be analyzed throughout the day. maybe we can talk to peter hotez about that. but to me, the timing of vaccines is sort of like goldilocks and the three bears were snow white ash not snow white, red riding hood. how many times are we going to hear this? how many times does a guy one? there's going to be a vaccine for old people by january? lisa: red riding hood? what? jonathan: i don't know. lisa: i'm lost. [laughter] i can't keep up. tom: i'm sorry, it was "frozen."

jonathan: ok. luckily, an expert, dr. peter will of baylor medicine, be joining us so we can put questions to him on this program on bloomberg. tom: ♪ let it go let it go ♪ karina: with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. state and federal election officials are rejecting president trump's claims of widespread voter fraud. they say that last week's election was the most secure in american history. has congratulated joe biden and kamala harris on winning the presidential election. that ended days of speculation about when beijing would formally acknowledge the erie. china was -- the victory. new reaction came after several television networks projected

biden would defeat president trump in arizona. it is the latest move by the white house to pressure beijing. president trump has signed an executive order barring investment to chinese companies owned or controlled by the military. the order says china is exploiting u.s. capitol. ministerk., prime forrest johnson most powerful eight is quitting -- prime minister boris johnson's most aide is quitting. dominic cummings was the mastermind of the successful brexit campaign. shares in disney are jumping. the world's largest entertainment company added more online subscribers than protected last quarter. disney is still reeling from the impact of a pandemic, but the growth of a disney plus streaming service has softened the blow, and contributed to a smaller than expect it fourth-quarter loss.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i was just on a call last other global pharma ceos who are heavily involved in solutions to covid.

we are looking forward to see young a lot more in the next six months or so. we have three vaccines in a clinic and two therapeutic treatments. glaxosmithkline ceo. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. action shaping up as follows. what a trading we get has been for all of us. equity futures up another 25. s&p 500 up 0.7%. the foreign-exchange market, the story of the week. a cyclical appetite returns. that's got to be the story for the week. in the bond market, 97 basis points the new high of the tenure trading range of the last five months or so. -- the 10 year trading range of the last five months or so. this morning, your 10 year at 0.815%. secretary alex azar

speaking. we've got to think about the spread between reality and hope. going on to say, enough of the covid vaccine for all u.s. seniors by january. i am not sure if that is the reality or the hope. on twitternt viral the other day with hope p.m.. dr. peter hotez is here to push back on that. can we have hope within the vicinity of january? dr. hotez: we certainly won't have all seniors vaccinated by january. first of all, the trial has to be completed for that pfizer vaccine. there are other vaccines following. the pfizer one will get the full spectrum of safety data, and also the level of protection. seen asw, we have not

it protects against serious infection or not, and we have not seen the infection level into fruit -- level in different groups comes we do not even know if it will protect seniors. pfizer will likely request an emergency use authorization with the fda. the fda will take a couple of weeks to review it and certify that everything looks good, and then starting in january, if everything looks good, they could start potentially releasing the vaccine. pfizer has said they will have 15 million doses by the end of the year, but only half of that is for the u.s., and he required to doses of the vaccine. so in -- and you require two doses of the vaccine. tom: eight months ago, we were talking up a low-cost vaccine that does not have to be frozen. where are we on a low-cost

vaccine? dr. hotez: hopefully we will announce restarting clinical trials in five sites, and then move pretty quickly on that. now, they are producing 100 million doses, so that is extraordinary. we are very excited. this is a simple technology that has been around for almost 40 same technology made to use the hepatitis b vaccine in many countries. hopefully it can be made for around a dollar echoes were less, so we are very excited about it. it is looking really good, and hopefully i can fill up the areas where it is going to be hard to get that pfizer vaccine out because it does require that deep-freeze, which limits our ability to use that to vaccinate around the world. so i think you will see a pretty complex ecosystem of at least half a dozen different vaccines

all around the world. lisa: there definitely is a lot more hope as these vaccines proved to be effective. timing really matters. what is the timeframe for you? what is the timeframe for us to get a critical mass of people in the united states vaccinated? dr. hotez: i hope by q2, we will really move in that direction. certainly by the summer, we will be in much better shape than we .re now there are always bumps in the road. there are other vaccines coming behind it. so by the middle of next year, we are going to be in a much better position. that is why i have been doing everything i can to tell people to be careful for the next few months because things are going to get better.

we will eventually get to a better place, but hang on and don't do things that are reckless. just be careful and look after your loved ones for the next few months. jonathan: many people share that view. many people who also watch and listen to this program followed a panel yesterday with ecb president lagarde, fed chair jay powell, and the governor for the bank of england andrew bailey. they were asked what they think are the biggest risks right now. president lagarde brought up the mutation in denmark. can you walk through what you have learned from that in the last week or so, and how concerned we should be, or shouldn't, for that matter? virus can our rna mutate. so far, we have not seen any evidence of those mutations that are affecting transmissibility or severity of illness, or the ability for vaccines to cross protect.

this is a fast-moving train. this could change. , buts could look different the mentation -- but the mutation this virus undergoes thoughts. top in the u.s., we haven't really had a national control program, so there is complete reliance on biotechnology solutions. let's get the u.s. population vaccinated. we have virologists looking constantly at the evolution of the virus. vaccines wille still be effective. one thing we are trying to work universalg a coronavirus vaccine, just like there is work towards a universal flu vaccine. are going to see covid 25, covid 28, covid 34 get this is a

new normal. like we don't have to rush a little kids soccer game towards the ball every time we emergence, itus would be great to develop a universal vaccine, and we are putting a lot of energy into that goal. jonathan: sobering words there. we appreciate your time this morning, doctor. some really sobering words about the future and the fact that i think now, surely, the funding has got to be there for the kind of programs the doctor describes. tom: as a complete amateur, i think you, lisa and i have done a good job of pursing out our expertise. i am just looking at the mass. it is exponential and accelerating. that is what we've got to pay attention to. the numbers this week and are just flat out not good. and only just now

trying to correct course of little bit more aggressively in america. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. one hour in five minutes away from the opening bell in new york city, to washington, d.c. wego in just a moment to talk about the economy and the lack of extra fiscal stimulus. that is next on bloomberg. ♪ - [narrator] this is kate.

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jonathan: dying ready to wind down the trading week. -- getting ready to wind down the trading week. "his is "bloomberg surveillance live on bloomberg tv and radio. economic data dropping across the bloomberg. here is michael mckee. michael mckee, we have not got your microphone track. i will bringt, that to our audience. ppi coming in month on month, october, .3%, the survey .2%. excluding food and energy, we come in .1%. the estimate .2%. the previous number .4%. final demand year on year we

come in upside surprise, .5%. .4% was the previous number. excluding food and energy, you're on year, 1.1 percent. the previous reit was 1.2%. the estimate was one point -- the previous read was 1.2%. that is the data. i want to run you through things. this week started out with concern about a contested election and what it would mean for big tech and to get more defensive and then the headline dropped. what was the headline about? vaccine hopes. this market started living in the back end of 2021. the back end of 2021 on the hopes and dreams we would have an established vaccine. that is the story for the back end of the year. here and now it is about the concerns about the next three months, the concerns we are going deeper into winter in america and the data is not getting better. i'm not talking about the

economic data. that is the issue. i'm talking about the data on covid-19. 1,started november, november with covid cases at 77,000. by november 11, that was just short of 150,000. that is the problem. what happens when the numbers start moving exponentially is the governors have to respond and the cities have to respond, and that is what we started to see in the last week. utah, newchusetts, york send new jersey as well. in chicago yesterday, the stay-at-home advisory came. here's the issue for these restrictions. what we do not have is the fisca l help. if you want to tell people they have to stay at home, you have to offset that with fiscal assistance, and that is the issue going forward. eight or nine months ago, we had the stay-at-home orders.

what we did not get this time around was a stay-at-home advisory without the fiscal help. disposable income went up even as unemployment exploded, which meant the united states economy was in a much better place when things started reopening. that is what we need to see this time around going into 2021. going into the new year, we need to be in a position where this economy is on a firmer footing even as we work through really difficult data and then we can reopen and things can start picking up again. that is the spread right now. it is the hope for the future and the tug-of-war between that is what is happening in the here and now. now, there isand no question. the existential theories on the pandemic and such. i would suggest markets are looking up. in march and april we had this bridge thing, where we were taking the breach up to april 15, and then magically the bridge went out to august. we have a clue where the bridge

is? i do not think we do. the bridge has to be longer. that is the issue. the appetite to do more is not there in washington, d.c. come and we see the appetite introduce more restrictions. let's bring in michael mckee. i understand the microphone is tracked and michael can talk about the data. michael: i hope so. the biggest thing we have been watching in terms of the producer price index is inflation in services. it rose just .2% after .4% the prior month. we are not seeing the kind of inflation we would get if the service industries were firing on all cylinders. there does seem to be excess capacity and that is something of a worry to central banks as we move along. if we look at the overall ppi on a year-over-year basis, final demand is up .1%. that is still way below where you would want to see it if you are the fed trying to get inflation generated.

john williams, new york fed president, speaking this morning in a financial times conference says there is a lot of downward pressure on inflation right now. disinflation is still a concern for the fed. they are not worried about deflation, but we are worried. williams also saying because of the recent virus surge, we may see economic activity start to slump. tom: we do not do clinics on friday. we can look -- i will make it up. inflation is starved and when i look at inflation, i see on the bloomberg screen no indications. i see disinflation. critically, i see service sector disinflation. is that transitory or is that here to stay? michael: service inflation had been rising while the economy was growing as we transition more to a service economy, then

we shut down a lot of the service industries. the restaurants, the bars, and the retail stores. service industry inflation has dropped off as not only companies are closed but others cut prices to try to keep people going. we have seen spending data has shifted a lot into goods. you can see a reason for some inflation. also shortages of goods and slowing and delivery. at this point we are hoping it is transitory on the service side and the fed is hoping we get back to a path towards to present soon. the virus outbreak will not help with that. disinflation on the ppi and other inflation statistics through november. michael mckee running all of our economics coverage. neil shearing with us on capital economics. they write essays. an open question. what will you write about this weekend? neil: there is only one thing to write about. vaccines. i sat down to think about this morning.

the contested election in the u.s. come the fact that in the u.s. and europe there are new restrictions, the fact economies will stall and perhaps even contracting q4. another brexit deadline in the u.k. has passed, heading towards a no deal exit. that is the only thing you can write about is the hope of vaccines. hope on the positive side for once. lisa: everyone is looking at the positive side if you look at the trajectory of markets this week. there is a question of scarring. how you came out scarring at a time where the pandemic is worsening and people are going to get laid off and that service sector is decimated. everyone is doing everything for themselves because they cannot afford to be close to anybody because they do not want to get the virus. how much scarring will lead experience and what does that mean? neil: it comes down to what you've been discussing come the extent to which policymakers can bridge the gap between now and

the point at which vaccines and treatments, we can lift these restrictions. there is nothing that is a foregone conclusion. it is all about the extent to which policymakers bridge that gap. in the u.k. there has been more support in parts of europe. the exception is the u.s., where we were less concerned about that until this week because it did not look like there would be new restrictions and the economy was doing reasonably well. when you have need for restrictions, you will get more people losing their jobs, and unemployment numbers, which were looking in the right direction will start going in the wrong direction and therefore a great risk of scarring. jonathan: you talk about exceptions. when you compare the united states to europe, the other exception is the united states is in a much better position coming into q4. you sought being lost in europe as soon as early september and the pmi posted for that month. that was the concern for europe

going into lockdowns, that the economy was already lifting momentum. the united states has it with these restrictions coming into effect. the savings rate in america has been so high through this year off the back of the extra effort and consumers holding back. how much you think is in the tank going into q4? neil: i think there is a bit left in the tank. you made the point earlier that despite the surge in unemployment we saw incomes going up and that is because of the huge fiscal support. there's been a schism in the labor market. if you find yourself on the wrong side of the divide during the pandemic, you lost your job, you lost income. if you retain your job, you work from home, the chances are your savings have gone up. partly you've got support from the government, but also because you've not been able to spend on going out to restaurants and theaters and bars and so on. tank,is a bit left in the

a bit left in the consumer tank. corporate savings have increased. we are not quite at crisis point, but if this does not start to be under control by q1, q2, and then there is no support in january, that is the point at which i would start to become concerned. jonathan: great to catch up as always. neil shearing, capital economics group. what he was alluding to is we are discussing the aggregate numbers, not the disparity. when you see the savings rate, we are not talking about low income individuals and the people that lost their jobs. that is the issue going forward over the next several months. help,ou have that fiscal where you want to help to go? ideally you wanted in the hands of people with a higher propensity to spend and that typically is the low income worker. tom: no question of multiple effects there. i think there is a dawning awareness and we will see this in the december report of the

two americas that are out there. question there has never been this disparity in my lifetime. whereis the disparity -- is the policy out of washington where there are so many new york suffering. jonathan: we got some policy on china and i think we have to talk about that next on this program. we have policy from the government to ban investments in some companies tied to china. is it a coincidence we wake up on friday morning with the foreign wing of the chinese communist party coming out and saying we acknowledge joe biden's election? scriptwill agree it is a to their early weekend and we will wake up our sunday evening and begin another week. the process hinges on the present president and through the morning on radio and television, we do not see information from the white house.

that is a fact. jonathan: silence. silence on covid-19. coming up, we get into the policies in washington with henrietta treyz. as the foreign ministry in china recognizes the joe biden election win. we will do that next. from new york and london, futures up 26. we advanced three quarters of 1%. this is bloomberg. with the- karina: first word news, i am karina mitchell. federal and state officials disagree more with president trump. the president has made baseless claims of voter fraud, but official to supervise the boat called the most secure in u.s. history. they say the vote was not otherwise compromised. some congressional republicans are splitting with president trump over his refusal to acknowledge the outcome of the election. they say joe biden should receive presidential level

intelligence briefings. presidents trump started to getting briefed a week after his election in 2016. a grim milestone in california. the state has had more than one million coronavirus infections. the cdc says almost no part of the country has been spared in the diseases latest search. a new study says the fatality rate of people in the u.s. has fallen 30% in's april. researchers forecast the death could hit 2200 a by mid-january. european union officials say does make their mind up time for boris johnson. another week of brexit negotiations -- eu officials suggest they are reaching a deal muskd position -- elon says he has tested positive for coronavirus. he tweeted he is experiencing symptoms. he was skeptical of the testing process, saying that of the four

tests using the same machine, two came back negative. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

, notntral banks are heroes only of the pandemic but of

2008-2009, and they should be given their justice. governments now have to take over. governments have to be flexible in terms of their fiscal policy. jonathan: the oecd secretary-general. "they are heroes of all of this." i'm sure they are for you if you are long going to some of this mess. i will not go there. lisa might several times over the next 12 months. coming up later on bloomberg tv, i will catch up with mike pyle from blackrock. we'll do that in just a little bit. tom: robert from deluxe barry on anmailed and he is boat in duxbury, massachusetts. why haven't we talked about bitcoin? why are you and i ignoring bitcoin. jonathan: i am ignoring bitcoin and i have done for the last several years. tom: this is the only thing he

and i are on the same page on. he brined, i do not brined. bitcoin. we are not going there. jonathan: i feel like every time i talk about bitcoin i get criticized one way or the other. i will let the professionals do with the cryptocurrency stuff. tom: lisa, bitcoin? lisa: i would go there. not bitcoin, but not with respect to cryptocurrency. we cannot dor tom: that with henrietta treyz, she is not up to speed on bitcoin hewitt i look at where we are now. everyone wants to hear from -- bitcoin. i look at where we are now. everyone wants to hear from the president and his supporters. optimismany policy of towards the pandemic and the government shutdown december 12? henrietta: i see very small pockets of optimism. unfortunately we have to keep talking about election, mainly the senate races in georgia that

could be a driver for conversations around a small package of stimulus in the lame-duck session. as you just pointed out the continued resolution to fund the government needs to pass by december 11 and the two senators in georgia will need to show they're making some progress on the coronavirus, especially as everyone heads home or tries to engage with their family members for thanksgiving and cases continue to skyrocket. hearder, and i've directly from folks in various senators offices in georgia that they like to take some votes, particulate extending the pcp program and potentially providing airline aid given atlanta is obviously a huge airline hub. tom: they have to win the vote in hartsfield, i get it. what are we going to do about the clear negotiating stumbling block, the big cities and big towns across this nation? henrietta: nothing until the first quarter of next year. i do not see a stated local aid package happening, i do not see

public rail or anything. i think that is a key 121 event. it needs to be done before march. package february 17. that is the kind of momentum joe biden will need to bring to the table in order to get 60 votes out of the senate and the first quarter of next year. no big packages passing before the next congress is sworn in. lisa: that is in the domestic sphere when we talk about the fiscal backdrop. let's talk international. let's talk china congratulating joe biden for being the next president of the united states. they had restrained themselves from doing so. how coincidental is it this comes right after president trump announces further restrictions on investments to chinese entities? henrietta: not at all. you nailed it in your last segment. i do not think it is remotely coincidental that the knowledge meant of president-elect biden having won the election

process, at the same 12 to 24 hours later, with every phase in the u.s. china trade war, whether it is tariffs or announcements around huawei, every time the president did anything, about 12 hours later we get a response from china and that is what we got last night. i think the most important cabinet official to watch in 2021 deaf people are concentrating on treasury and commerce and state, and i reflect that. i think the most exciting is who will be the next u.s. trade representative. person will inherit over $300 billion in tariffs for china and as soon as we get past the stimulus conversation, that will be the only job you see aside from regulatory changes we have the next three and a half years. lisa: how does joe biden respond to this? there is bipartisan agreement on taking a harder line with china. does he embrace this or push back and try to indicate he will take a similar hardline as president trump? henrietta: there was a line i

heard from the chief of staff a couple of months back and effectively she said when we see the president imposing tariffs on china, we think he is doing the hard work for us. now, when president biden comes -- as is in a position to china and the u.s. engage and start to talk about -- not buying more soybeans but more pork bellies, but instituting intellectual property theft changes and forced tech transfers, they can walk down the tariffs eventually. we have heard from the biden transition team they will -- stimulus all day in the first quarter. as we get beyond that and start to reengage with china or the eu or japan or the u.k. and hash out these trade agreements, there needs to be a discussion that will dominate the next three years. tom: thank you so much.

henrietta treyz with data partners. upures up 26, dow futures 240. the vix gives back a little bit. i want to go to one of the great under said things this week, which is spread narrowing, how andcredit space, ig, high-yield wind price up a big. didn't they? lisa: i was thinking about this because you guys were teasing me when i said we have record low yields on high-yield debt. the company's closest to duval have record low borrowing costs at a time we are entering the season of discontent with the pandemic that is raging. since that moment you've seen yields like backup because people are skeptical of whether they are getting no pay for a lot of risk. this is the conundrum. is a higher backstop by the federal reserve. the fed balance sheet equals one

third of the u.s. gdp. just throwing that out your tom: when you said -- just throwing that out. tom: when you sell credit, don't you just go to cash? what is the alternative when you are addicted to the high-yield. lisa: your absently right. that is why going into some of the instruments and justifying it. the distinction is what people might end up getting is when these companies go bankrupt, if they go bankrupt, the return is that much lower. it is a binary outcome. they can get that coupon that is higher, but at the end of the date the returns might go to zero if there is a problem. this is the question. it does not seem like the default cycle will be nearly as bad as people had expected. where will you go, especially with the fed backstop? tom: that is the conundrum of into december. futures up 25. coming up on bloomberg television, this is a timely

conversation on any number of ways. irc. miliband of much more with the politics and united kingdom. stay with us on bloomberg radio, on bloomberg television. good morning. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york and

london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. futures advancing 25 points. we begin with the big issue. the pandemic searching across the united -- the pandemic searching -- surging across united states. infection setting new milestones across the country. chicago taking action. the mayor issuing a 30 day stay at home advisory, making exceptions for school, work, and essentials only. if things do not take a turn in the coming days, we will reach the point where some form of a mandatory stay-at-home order is all that will be left. jonathan: all this as prospect for a package continues to fade. the white house reporting stepping away, leaving it to congress to revise negotiations which appear to be we