♪ >> we have seen a method of shift in the last week that we don't think investors should be ignoring. >> growth will pick up a lot in the second have a dear as people get back to normal. likermal doesn't look january 2020. the world is different. >> we have been in a bull market. we remain in a bull market. >> we can face forward into what i thing is going to be a very big 2021. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market back from all-time highs. record high covid cases meets record high stock market. that is the start contrast of the last couple of weeks. tom: the vix down to a 22 print.

you will do a data check better than me. what i would look at is the news flow that is out there, and the clear message i get in every conversation is corporations are adapting and adjusting to a slowing economy knowing there's vaccines are out there. obviously, the celebration yesterday. jonathan: and that is the market celebration, society's celebration about the outlook, not the here and now. president-elect joe biden talking about a dark are to come -- a dark winter to come. saying he bold might be full. just a little bit of pessimism, or at least questioning the euphoria of the last couple of weeks. tom: you see it in the minutia right now. spx and dow have green on the -- have red on the

screen. the nasdaq has green on the screen. the real debate is what happens second and third quarter next year. that is what all of the year-end outlooks are going to be. i know you read every word of every year-end outlook. jonathan: i wonder how many will have to be rewritten over the next few months. tom: i need quiet on the floor, please. [laughter] i'm sorry, my entourage was talking here. quiet on the floor, please. jonathan: how many people have you got over there? tom: my usual 4, 5 or six. jonathan: i have no idea where he was doing with this, but he would love people like him surrounding about all times and they could all just look at each other. lisa:lisa: i think he is playing all roles right now. tom: what is so important here is it is just unreal the entourage he's got on queen victoria street right now. let us continue. lisa: just to bring us back to

what we were talking about and really weigh in on what jon was talking about, there's a question about the entry point, the idea that there is a brighter future, but how much pain needs to be felt in the near term, and how much is currently being felt in the real economy? we will be getting a read on that with u.s. retail sales. the expectation is usually for october sales to increase. this may be different because we are seeing momentum decline. what are people going to spend their money on if they have to be home and there are restrictions? 1:00 p.m., fed chair jay powell is speaking at a bay area award ceremony. i am very curious about what he has to say about extending the bond purchases. there seems to be a bet in markets that they will make a decision on this in there meeting next month. at 2:15 p.m., the senate is holding a procedural vote on the fed nominee judy shelton, and there has been some pushback recently by some republicans.

senators saying we are not that keen on the whole goal standard thing and the nonindependent thing, but if they basically pass her through this procedural vote, she will be up for confirmation. distraction, not front and center, but i think knife's edge is being used right now in order to get judy shelton to be a covenant -- to be a governor. jonathan: let's talk about jay powell. the bay area business hall of fame. are you in that, tom? [laughter] tom: no i am not. can i look at the headline of the moment? jonathan: please do. tom: walmart right now with that headline from the ceo, and this really speaks to where we are going, the idea that new customer behavior will persist. headline.is the money jonathan: sticky might be the

word you hear a lot more of. let's get some more price action this tuesday morning. a little bit of optimism over the last week. euphoria, maybe. futures decline. pull back a bit on the s&p 500. we advance on the nasdaq. treasuries did not participate in the moves yesterday, basically unchanged. a move of a basis point or so. we come in a basis point to 0.89%. euro-dollar, $1.1875. $41.48.wn to joining us to kick off program, mona mahajan, allianz global investors u.s. investment strategist. kit juckes says this market is unsustainable. do you share that? asa: i think the rotation

part of this equity move is somewhat sustainable. we may get some volatility. we are still not through the toughest part of this virus and this pandemic. but beyond that, i think the incremental news we got this weekend last week with not only vaccines, but vaccines over 90% effective, or 95% effective, even the scientists in their wildest hopes were not expecting that would produce that. that is incremental news that could get us through this pandemic in the next 12 months period. for us, when you think about to1, where growth may start accelerate because you have a pickup globally, rates will probably remain low through 2021, and you have the potential for fiscal stimulus and maybe some fiscal spending, that is not a bad backdrop for risk assets bradley. overall, we continue to feel if you have volatility, use that

tactically for non-us assets. start to think about that. tom: walmart is breaking out to a new high. . are corporations going to adjust to all of this? wet a simple as i can, are underestimating the ability of corporations to adapt to this pandemic? has: clearly this pandemic accelerated some key trends. that has been accelerated through this. we think that is here to stay to some extent. cybersecurity,, telemedicine. there are several trends that we are seeing that corporations

probably had been thinking about, but now really have to get on the ball. these trends have been accelerated through this pandemic and are likely here to stay to some extent. some of these stay-at-home stocks have 3, 5, 10 year secular growth trends behind them, so that is part of the exposure as well. lisa: one of the aspects of this moment, it is looking darker with was back to the pendant trends, and then you have the longer-term or intermediate term which looks better-than-expected given the efficacy of some of these vaccines. periods ofid in volatility, to take advantage. what counts as volatility? mona: in some cases, since the

start of this quarter, we haven't gotten many pullbacks. some of the cyclical sectors are up 17%, so we haven't quite seen a dip to buy quite yet. periodhink over the next through year end, there will be pullback. certainly ahead of 2021, i think it is important to start thinking about how you want to position as these vaccines get rolled out, as hopefully we start to see this change in consumer behavior, perhaps pulled back to pre-pandemic activity levels. we do think we will get you position if yourself accordingly, so it is important to watch for that.

jonathan: how do you think people will condition for the price action of the spring and what is playing out in america right now? what do you think the fallout of that actually us? mona: clearly, when the fed stepped in in march in a big way, not only bringing rates back down, adding qe, that really supported the functioning of credit and equity markets. they did put yvette abbe -- they did put a bit of a backstop into this market. it feels like markets are conditioned to buy that dip. we say it is important to stay low but active in how you position yourself in the market place if you want to have performance in line with broader indices. you do need to think about your weighting in certain regions, etc. we think there is a bit of conditioning, but it could be more than buying the overall markets. as long as the fed is there, as

long as global central banks are in play, we think there is a backstop in the market, and that is to some extent helpful, but longer-term, we will see what the consequent is our. jonathan: great to catch up. mona mahajan, thank you. fed vice chairman richard clarida speaking yesterday, and did he sound optimistic and confident. here is a quote. "i've got more conviction in my baseline for next year and recovery from the pandemic shock that the united states can potentially be much more rapid than it was then the global financial crisis." a pretty bright outlook for 20 when he won -- for 2021. tom: it is good to hear that from the vice. there's all sorts of opinions out there, but the number one thing is, there's a set of a wall of worry along with a wall of money. jonathan: and j.p. morgan think the fed might add to it. lisa: that is the interesting thing. even though he was really

optimistic, people are still basically pricing in an extension and duration -- extension in duration and maturities at the federal reserve. jonathan: it is unreal. follow the dow. you've got this. tom: s&p 4000. lisa: turkey, brian. jonathan: we are getting there -- turkey, brine. jonathan: we are getting there. i have no idea where the show is going. i feel like that everything the morning. coming up shortly, new york fed president bill dudley. looking to that conversation. kevin cirilli in d.c. as well. president-elect joe biden, "we are going into a very dark winter." more to come. -- more toomberg come. this is bloomberg. the president-elect

wants something like the $2.4 trillion bill the house passed before the election, but richard shelby says that probably will not happen soon, and it won't happen later either. across much of the country, new infections are soaring at the fastest pace since the earliest days of the pandemic. california has reimposed bands on many indoor businesses. michigan has ordered a partial three week shutdown. oregon, washington and new jersey have tightened restrictions. turning now to another of elon musk's companies, shares of tesla are soaring today. the carmaker will join the s&p 500 next month as its largest ever new member. tesla's shares have risen almost .ivefold this year

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. rick -- i'm rick -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

congress: right now, should come together and pass a covid relief package like the heroes act that the house past six months ago.

and we shut down the virus deliver economic relief to workers and businesses, we can start to build that better than before. jonathan: build back better than before. we've heard that a lot over the last year or so. joe biden pushing for more fiscal stimulus. congress is not budging right now. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action of this tuesday morning. .e pullback from all-time highs the nasdaq, that is where your outperformance is. it speaks to the defensive posture of this morning. yields come in a basis point or two on the 10 year to 0.89%. crude at $41.27. keep an eye on the euro. dollar weakness is broad-based. i will talk about that a little later in the program. the chinese currency seems to be the shock absorber right now and the affects market. euro-dollar, $1.1877.

just how tolerant will these central banks be of a weaker dollar? tom: i think you are dead on. i noticed renminbi out to new strengths. i am eight -- i am also watching the euro-yen. kevin cirilli joins us, our chief washington correspondent. who is advising the president? there seems to be confusing about a secretary of offense, where the president wants to go do things, and a secretary of defense where he wants to get out of afghanistan, get out of a rock, mitch mcconnell saying you are nuts. who is advising the president? kevin: reportedly, president trump met with some of his top national security advisers, including secretary pompeo, to discuss withdrawals from the afghanistan region, as well as a potential military strike against iran. but that, according to these

reports, say he decided against that. we should note that should he want to utilize significant military force, he would need to get congressional approval, should it be boots on the ground, or with regards to that, as you just alluded to, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell is not looking -- is likely not going to provide appetite for that in a lame-duck session. joe biden has been hosting briefings with national security advisor's for the media and whatnot, and we should note the careful role that his longtime aide will play no doubt in the transition and obviously at the administration as well. tom: the other side show, and i know you're up to speed on this, is the two georgia distractions. republicansare the to mess up this election? they are supposed to win, right? kevin: they are supposed to win. this is theirs to lose. there are two senate seats in

the georgia runoff up for grabs in the first week of january. make no mistake, i speak with republicans who have told me they welcome president trump's ability to campaign, to mobilize various republican contingencies who are not likely to vote unless there is a large path for trumpism. there's a lot of different moving pieces now, both in conservative media circles, as well as where super pac's going to be going and conservative money circles, and all of that, the first chapter of that could be in january 2021. who is going to be able to claim conservative victory not just in terms of the candidates, but in terms of how they were able to do that? that is what is really happening. that is the jockeying going on ihind the scenes jonathan:

appreciate the focus on 2021, but we need to focus on 2020 and what has happened in america in the. last one he. four hours. philadelphia closing down -- in the last 24 hours. philadelphia closing down indoor dining. california. what is happening on the front? kevin: taser this bluntly, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has looked at the positive develop men's from pfizer on the vaccination front, as well as moderna, as an argument for a more targeted stimulus approach and not a more wide sweeping stimulus approach. in contrast, president-elect joe biden working the phones, working the virtual town hall meetings of sorts and trying to urge democrats, and to some extent republicans, privately to get on board with a larger, broader sweeping stimulus package.

the goal posts haven't moved in terms of where stimulus funding and talks are. lisa: meanwhile, it is also the comprehensive plan the united states has to roll out the vaccine and get the coronavirus under control. how closely is the trump administration working with the biden administration at this point? i know biden's administration has complained that they have not been in any kind of discussions. what is the latest on that front? kevin: publicly, nothing. even back channeling, very little. i am not able to report that there's been any significant serious conversations on that regard. is the second half of this incredibly important. peaceful transitions of power are deeply rooted in american history. it is a sobering tradition, and one that has deep roots dating back to george washington. but behind the scenes, the bureaucrats, the career officials at the various agencies and institutions in the

united states, the people who were there in the bush administration, the obama administration, the trump administration, and yes, the biden administration, those individuals have been working on this for decades in the sense of the supply chain. when i talked to health officials, the supply chains are there. the role outcome of that is why moderna is saying they should be able to roll it out by the end of the year for certain contingencies. tom: nobody cares. what they care about is the gentleman from philadelphia apologized for the nation on the performance of the philadelphia eagles. do you agree with congressman boyle that the philadelphia eagles are a national embarrassment? kevin: wow. i don't think they are a national embarrassment publicly, but privately, i have been known to gripe like congressman boyle, and i've got to say -- i mean,

i've got to be careful because i'm on tv, so i don't want to say what i'm thinking. jonathan: don't worry, kevin. kevin: but i have thoughts. [laughter] and you are tempting me and debating me. lisa: i have thoughts. jonathan: given how we opened this show about 20 minutes ago come on bloomberg radio and bloomberg tv, i guarantee. great to catch up. back,cirilli, welcome bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. kevin with us through the week on the latest in washington, d.c. the states are making their move. where the federal follow-up? tom: i am so glad you brought us back to the end of it because in all of this happy talk about the markets, dow through 30000 and the rest come of the news of the bloomberg virus update is grim today, like it was in those days of april. jonathan: just a couple of weeks away from thanksgiving. coming up, kevin get us -- kevin

james fixedond income strategist. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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♪ jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." we pulled back from record highs. equity futures declined 0.4%. the nasdaq positive. small caps negative. this morning, just a little bit of putback -- just a little bit of pushback. bank of america saying sell the vaccine. maybe this bull is full. let's get quickly to what is happening in foreign-exchange and in the bond market. want to talk about ethics a little bit and start with what is happening in treasuries first. yields are starting to push out just a bit last week. 97 basis points, and that is where we topped out. then things rolled over. many people making this call that we would get this weaker dollar. that weaker dollar has not come through in a very pronounced way. apart from one currency pair, and that is dollar china,

treasuries this morning 88 basis points. china peaked at the back end of may. stronger chinese currency since then. that is what you need to keep an eye on. just how much of this will we tolerate on the central-bank and, at the ecb, the boj, at the country level in china, too? kit juckes of socgen saying maybe what we have seen over the past couple of weeks is understandable. .e thinks it is unsustainable added into the japanese yen. i think maybe some people think this is gone too far. tom: what i would note, a lot of the pros we talk to talk about into $1.30, $1.40. i just don't agree. to me, we have seen on this show are people getting upset at a $1.22 euro.

how much does it take for strong euro to be a problem? jonathan: the last time it was a problem, it was $1.20, and we are not far off that right now. i would say that would be the level again. it's tough. they got him on a data check there from the data center to the desk. it's incredible. ddis with us now of raymond james. what is so great about your work is it really devolves down to what people do with coupon and what people do trying to protect total return. i believe it is yield up, price down. how do you protect total return? kevin: the only way to protect total return would be to shorten duration or enhance credit. we have stopped really short of starting to walk up the duration

curve a little bit in order to protect that trade, and the idea behind that is you really think yields are going to run up between now and the end of the year. we are not necessarily there. we made a 1% 10 year forecast in march, and now we are trying to hopefully live with it and it is true, but we saw last week that there is potential to push rates most ofbut this week the news is good. i am still skeptical that we've got full duration, but it looks like the better trade, there's just not that much difference between tens and sevens. fed: we always talk about being the ultimate put, expecting the fed to step in with extending the duration of purchases at their meeting next month, their $80 billion of treasury purchases a month. do you think they will do this, and why? see thatreally don't

happening. if you looked at last week's numbers, the fed balance sheet at $7.15 trillion. they added less than $20 billion to the portfolio, and of that, $15 million were treasuries. to havethey would like that portfolio just $7.5 trillion. i don't and they are going to rush and that. for thatat the curve validation, i just don't see that they are going to go out and pump a bunch of securities into the portfolio between now and the end of the year, certainly after we know what next year looks like from a vaccine standpoint. lisa: markets expect the fed to step in before there is even a disruption, let alone any sign of consternation. on the flipside, as you said, it doesn't really seem like the conditions are there, and vice chair clarida not seem to be particularly pessimistic yesterday. how disruptive is it is the fed

does not step in with that extension of duration? kevin: i don't think all that much. we've got a host of said speakers this week. one is excitement for the vaccine, and the fact that rates are going to stay low for a long time, if i added another one, it has been the need for fiscal support. there is -- they are still trying to get congress to come up with a package that takes some of the pressure off doing what you are actually talking about doing. i don't think there is a big market reaction if they don't come up but i do think if we start to see this economy slide down and there is a period of time for the vaccine and there is no stimulus, it will react and probably take us back towards 60 basis points on tens versus 1%. jonathan: where do you expect the pain to show? you've talked about the treasury market. do you expect to see any pain in credit? there's a real comfort right now

looking at the credit market, and just saying the fed has got our back. what does the pain show? kevin: the part that really baffles me is that ig spreads have come in a little bit since the beginning of the month, but high-yield spreads have common 70, 80 bp's, and volatility has come down during that time. i think we are not done with bankruptcies, not done with business closures. it will go beyond the energy space. the energy space is about 44% of the high-yield market. there are other sectors like telecommunications and others that are seeing down credits. if we look at the upgrade/downgrade ratio to high-yield in particular, the downgrades are leading 5-1. there's the pain trade. the pain trade is for all of those who reached out and tried to get yield, and i think you

will see spreads widened before the end of the year. sawthan: back in spring, we a huge dissertation between investment grade in the market. have these changed sufficiently in a material way over the last nine months that we might not see a repeat of that? kevin: most of the financings or refinancings have been much shorter than where they normally would be given this opportunity, but that is about cash buildup. county,ook at state, municipal, they are doing deals to provide themselves liquidity to offset revenue. more pain inll see terms of businesses if they can't reopen, or even the potential of another lockdown -- another lockdown or closure. tom: what is the relative opportunity of municipal bonds?

mona: this is a space i like -- kevin: this is a space i like a lot. if you look at the landscape of muniz, you hardly see a bad outcome. we've got the runoffs in georgia in january to determine the congress. that congress is either going to raise taxes or they won't. they will either have more regulation or they won't. the meeting market is positioned quite well for whatever happens. the republicans aren't going to hurt them, and the democrats would probably make that trade more attractive. you can still get 93% of treasuries. tom: is the real risk here going out too far? 10 years for a lot of people is short. they are addicted to the twenty-year space. how far out is safe? -- kevin: toreal get real value in muniz, you really have to go out about 30 years. safer in credits somewhere

between five and seven years. i am not trying to time it. i am just trying to find a place that i feel will give me a return and higher credit quality. jonathan: thank you very much. ,asinos are closing down again and casinos for some of these steadies -- some of the cities make up a huge chunk of the revenue stream. what we heard yesterday, "the budget is not my first concern right now" that is where we are for many mayors right now. the financial considerations are secondary to what is happening in the hospitals and the icu units across america right now. tom: you can really feel the tension. i felt it outside mount sinai last night. to be clear, it is not anything like april, but that tension is

back, nothing like what we see across the greater midwest. some of the vectors, london is within two or three days of exceeding the per capita peak of of new york state. i find that stunning that we are there. jonathan: a stat i didn't know, and very concerning. your right to bring up that new york is not the house but that it was for all of the news that it was back in spring. -- not be hotspot that it was for all of the news back in spring. lisa: i think there's this idea that there are a lot of people who are infected who are not necessarily shown victims -- showing symptoms that are affecting others. i just want to bring up something we have talked about over the past few months, which is a bridge to the other side. the question is, has the bridge been long enough?

so far it hasn't gotten date area bequest and is, how deep will the pain be to make the bridge insufficient to get to that other side. that is sort of the big unknown as we head into a big winter. jonathan: you've got to get whenr at interrupting tom people are speaking. lisa: i don't mean to interrupt. is that it? [laughter] jonathan: it gets me every time. i wonder how the guests feel when he does it. they are just getting their point out. lisa: it depends. there are people that just run right over him, which might be the best approach, and there are people who immediately stop. jonathan: the conversation never interrupt them. kenng up on the program,

leon, cfra research analyst. really important conversation. down 21 on the s&p. we decline 0.6 percent, just off of session lows. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ritika:ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. mark zuckerberg and jack dorsey will be defending themselves again today. the ceos of facebook and twitter will testify before the senate judiciary committee. the second time in a month, they will have to answer critics who say their social network silences conservatives. president trump rushing to leave his final mark on energy, financial, and foreign policy. he is preparing to cut troop levels in iraq and afghanistan and rushing to lease oil drilling rights in alaska. meanwhile, he is stalling the transition to joe biden. the president-elect warns that further delays could lead to a higher coronavirus death toll. senate republicans are trying to push through the

controversial nominee to the fed board, judy shelton. approval could depend on whether all republican senators who support shelton show up for a possible vote this week. the strongest storm of the hurricane season has landed in hurricaneerica, ♪ iota -- in central america. hurricane iota came on shore in nicaragua. it is likely to trigger deadly floods. amazon is making its biggest push into selling prescription drugs yet. the retailer is launching a digital pharmacy. shoppers can pay using their health insurance. some prime members who don't use insurance are eligible for discounts on the amazon site, or at about 50,000 pharmacies. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700

journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

coming very soon.

jonathan: easyjet ceo. from london and new york this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the price action this tuesday. just a little bit more defensive than what we have seen over the past week. equity futures are negative on the s&p, positive on the nasdaq. thane up a little more 0.1%. a bit into the treasury market. yields up to 0.88%. after much demand, i am going to say it. it starts with a b. bitcoin. i have been asked to give bitcoin a shout out, so i will give bitcoin a shout out. $17,000. just throwing that out there. you can take that wherever you want to go with it. lisa: i have a lot to say about bitcoin. tom: what have you got? lisa: quickly, it is going

toward record highs and nobody is talking about it. it isn't necessarily going to be the topic of discussion at thanksgiving, but it has had an unreasonable run. can to.

tom: what is the cardboard box margin, and what is pharmacy going to bring? : i think it will bring more than 20% ebita margin. ,onathan: tom forte there putting a little bit more pressure on the pharmacy giants. hopefully putting some pressure on them on main street, not just the e-commerce offering.

--ave to say, they compare tom: i was saying this to francine earlier. people have no idea about the pharmacy in america. if you canrte said, make $0.10 on the dollar on pharmacy, that is a ton of money as they create share. jonathan: i was talking more about the pristine nature of some of the shopping centers here in the united kingdom compared to some of the united states in new york. whole foods in london is so much nicer than whole foods in new york. how can that be? why does that make sense? i don't think that makes sense. tom: we all shop at whole paycheck. i get that. pristine,the edge of

and the other one will be a total dump, and the next one is even worse. i don't get it. jonathan: i know for a fact where you go because you spend an extra 20 minutes in a cab to go to the one that you prefer. lisa: seriously? tom: can't make this up. i told the manager at the whole paycheck i go to that they should pay mrs. keene to come to the store. if you compare and contrast the normal cart from the attended by mrs. keene cart, she bought bezos' fifth house. lisa: if you go into a whole foods and you see a very tall railing about the apples -- jonathan: i can tell you where he will be. [laughter] and i can tell you from where he lives, there is one right around the corner that he refuses to go to. the threebuying

dollars 625 since pesto. she is buying the stuff from italy. jonathan: she's doing the right thing. because she is doing that, they can give us a nice pharmacy offering as well. beautiful thing. - i'm dough hirsch.

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>> we have seen a massive momentum shift in the last week that we don't thing investors should be ignoring. >> the market in the next two months will start to repress everything. we have been in a bull market. we will continue to be in a bull market. >> this is "bloomberg su