a phase 2 study confirms that -oxford vaccine provokes an immune response in elderly patients. a phase 3 trial looking at its results is expected within weeks. u.s. deaths from the coronavirus reach a quarter of a million. new york city shuts schools once again. the country deals with a surge in cases from coast to coast. and e.u. leaders will attempt to salvage billions in virus relief today. hungary and poland threaten to derail the plans. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. we will spend a good amount of time looking at the resurgence or the continuing restrictions because of the vaccine in the market today. focusing on that instead of the encouraging news we had from the vaccine. working parents are having to deal with new york schools, and then we look at europe and some of the reversals that may be in jeopardy because of poland and hungary.

look at the really disinflationary dampening you are seeing in the bond market. i don't want to make a big deal about it, but yield gives way to lower yield. i'm looking at five-year, five-year breakevens, and there is a little bit of an ebb, an increase in the disinflationary tendency. that claimsort -- number at 8:30. francine: a really important one, and we have some great interviews coming up from the bloomberg new economy forum focusing on health today. a conversation also with bill gates. let's get to first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: joe biden warns that the delay in starting the presidential transition could set bet the effort to distribute the coronavirus vaccine. could setback the effort to disturb the coronavirus fencing. trump -- thent

trump administration is being urged to begin working with biden. wisconsin election officials have ordered a partial vote recount that was requested by the top -- by the trump campaign. there will be recount in two heavily democratic counties. joe biden won by more than 20,000 votes. recounts have shifted only hundreds of votes historically. a controversial nomination of judy shelton to the fed board is hanging by a thread and there is little chance it will be revived. the senate is preparing for thanksgiving recess. on's lawmakers return, democrats will pick up another seat. that makes confirming shelton a tougher battle. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. -- futuresatives -16. the vix at 20 to come out to 23,

--k up to when he 4.31 224.31. a 10-year yield, 8.5%. we are going to get an 8.4 on that in a moment with the curve flattening. oil pulls back after two interesting days, and dollar, a little bit of dollar strength right now. francine, what do you have? francine: i have a similar data check to yours. stocks are falling, and again it is because of the pandemic resurgence, and that today seems to overshadow progress toward the vaccine. but it just flips day in and day out, so going too much into that with the bright spots, astrazeneca rising after positive results, and i'm also looking at pound because there is another deadline that we have to talk about, and there is brexit. renminbi -- i don't think i have it in my data check, but i was

looking at some of the new calls from the new research chief of hsbc, and they say the yuan is now a g10 currency. ae european union also faces grueling battle to save billions in relief funds. leaders will try to persuade hungary and poland not to be till recovery plan. european commission president ursula von der leyen spoke about the effort at the bloomberg new economy forum. has shown us that global public health is the foundation of the world's prosperity and security. forines must be available all, whoever they are, wherever they are, whatever they can afford. or low income countries should be left behind. a global recovery is the only way to reopen our economies, to restart the labor market, to repair supply chains, and start

rebuilding. this is about capitalizing on existing market forces, not fighting them. we need to use our recovery stimulus to invest in the clean and digital technologies of the future. this is the thinking five europe's 1.8 trillion euro recovery package. you can count on europe to lead the way. francine: as we are speaking, there is also christine lagarde speaking at the european parliament, promising a forceful monetary stimulus package in december. she's also urging governments to make the pandemic relief available without delay. madame lagarde is speaking live. we will monitor headlines from that. lignos.us now is elsa great to speak with you. is it forf a concern euro if these pandemic relief efforts are delayed and delayed

significantly because of vetoes? elsa: i think it would be a concern if they were to be delayed indefinitely, but our experience with european leaders is that they always find some way to either bend the rules or find a workaround and get done what they want to get done, in this case getting the e.u. recovery fund off the ground. i can see that there will be a battle today. i doubt they will find a compromise on today's conference call, but i think market participants rightly expect that one way or another it will get done and the funds will be dispersed. francine: what does it mean for euro, elsa? euro, so far it is not traded on the back of this and that is probably the right approach. year.w a big rally this i don't think it was just -- it was a combination of factors. the last time we spoke, which was probably a while ago, we

were looking for euro-dollar to hit the 1.20 level. i think the rationale behind it was really the collapse of u.s. rates at european levels. that has run its course. the e.u. recovery fund mostly baked in, so i don't think you are going to be seeing euro trade on the back of this. the exception would be if the whole thing is called into question, but that is not anybody's base case at the moment. elsa, wonderful to have you back on the show. i want to ask you the more philosophical question of given weak dollar. at what point will nations start screaming? you look at the early 1990's, and the distinctive issue is, is now like then where they take a while to screen, or do they scream -- do they screen much sooner than we expect? elsa: i think some people are screaming already. it is a great question becomes

-- because it comes to the heart of what can countries do to prevent their currencies from appreciating? the s&p is a notable example. the answer is active intervention, reserve accumulation. in other countries, and the region ins one particular, you have this approach in terms of the market exchange rates. i have heard a number of people say the ecb will not be happy if that happens in 2020. what will they do about it? it is not like they can cut rates further, it is not like they have a lot left to do in terms of conventional monetary policy. francine: what they -- tom: what they have done historically, they have asked the united states to cut the weak dollar policy. most of the interviews we do 1.40st euro 1.30 or even would provide that tension. i am hearing too many adults like you saying that is wrong,

we could see the screaming at 1.22 or 1.23. why is that? is it just that at negative interest rates so much is more sensitive now? elsa: that may be a part of it, but i think it is recognition that there are limited talks. i don't think anybody would expect a plaza court or live record at pete -- repeat. away from that policy of coordination intervention. the last time we saw something veryar was very sick -- specific circumstances. currencies are going to adjust appropriately. i am usually not in the bearish account, and a lot of people we speak to are at the moment. the market will do the work for the ecb. with a better economic recovery next year or the year after, then you will find euro-dollar

drifting back down through no intervention from the ecb at all. francine: thank you so much, elsa lignos of rbc capital markets stays with us. we will talk about the currency ies out there. about jobs and inflation, at 9:30 am in new york and 2:30 p.m. in london. and this is bloomberg. ♪

bloomberg surveillance. jobless claims a big deal, it:

30 new york time, washington time. a spirited discussion on euro, dollar weakness. elsa,e are convinced on, is renminbi is on a tear. let's start with the wife. why have we seen you want appreciation -- let's start with the why. uan have we seen yo appreciation? elsa: market participants are rightly looking at china's response to the virus and the economic recovery that has taken place there. they have handled it better than a lot of places. strategists and traders as well have had a good call earlier this year looking for renminbi strength, but we are getting to the point where that is running to an end. tom: we have a new stasis there. is that strong yuan were

an?rly priced yu elsa: it depends on the approach or take. people would argue it is too cheap, and there are longer-term trends around debt sustainability for china, which point to the one being too being -- to the you want too strong. it is interesting for me to see, for example, dollar-renminbi trading above euro-dollar on the one-your horizon. that doesn't make a lot of sense to me because i do think that we are moving into an environment where you may see a more normalized u.s.-china relationship going forward. francine: what do you make of the end? it seems range bound. i don't know what you do with the havens. elsa: we have actually been

tactically short on the yen, and not because we are bearish on risk. the relationship between dollar-yen and equities has weakened, and not because we are hugely bearish on the dollar either, the because i think you're seeing a very interesting capital flow story with the repatriation of money by japanese investors into domestic assets. they have become natural sellers of dollar-yen on any rally. we have had that a few times, we have it again at the moment. not a huge move, but it is making a bit of money for us at the moment. francine: there is a lot of talk about the e.u. and the u.k. coming closer to an agreement. we also have reports from the u.k. press, saying e.u. leaders worry that business is just not ready for a no deal brexit. we are still talking about it, and we are three or four years on. what happens to -- how much

higher can pound go from here if we have a deal? elsa: like you say, we are still talking about it for .5 years on. it seems amazing now for it was may 2016 and we are still talking about how we are going to properly exit. the important thing to bear in mind is no matter what happens, whether we get a deal or not, u.k. is leading a single market by the end of the year, and that means economic disruption in any case. when you are looking at sterling, it is important to bear in mind that you may get a knee-jerk rally on an announcement of a deal, but that may well be a good opportunity to -- i am looking at it the way we did the u.k. election last year, where there was the expectation that a tory victory was very positive for sterling, and you got a rally the night of the election results, and then you never saw those rates again. i would not be surprised if something similar happens in

this situation. whether we get a deal or not, trade is going to be less free at the end of this year than it was up until this point. tom: elsa lignos, thank you so much for joining us. elsa lignos with rbc capital markets, global head of fx strategy. it is a nuanced story at the border. the dallas fed president, robert kaplan, with david westin, balance. look for that at 12:30. futures deteriorate, -20. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the anti-vaccination movement has mobilized. it is growing, and it is dangerous, and we need to see governments and public figures working hard to defeat this movement. the vaccine science is good. it is safe. we need to take it one step at a time. if i think about president elect eitan coming in, his number one objective for him -- president-elect biden coming income his number one objective is to the public trust. that was richard horton speaking to me earlier, speaking about the anti-vaccine movement. vaccineazeneca-oxford

provokes an immune response in the elderly. in the united states have topped 150,000. sam fazeli joins us, director of young a research. when you look at this vaccine, it is a different vaccine from pfizer and moderna. is it easier to distribute, or is it just not as effective as the other ones? effectiveness, -- and good morning we have to wait and see how it works in phase 3. all these studies they are doing in early trials look at the activity as opposed to efficacy. proves asif this effective as the other vaccines we have seen so far, it is much easier to handle. it only needs refrigeration when you are transporting it, and it can remain in the fringe -- in the fridge for a decent length of time.

francine: which one will get approved first? the other two, pfizer and modernity, are new. that youe of vaccine are extending to us about yesterday, does later approval come for those? i think they are way ahead of astrazeneca. review -- the fda has a between december 8 and december 10 for the vaccines. unless there is something in manufacturing or whatever, seeing an emergency use approval sometime -- astrazeneca will be behind in the u.s. possibly in the u.k. they might get approval before the end of the year, but more likely into q1. tom: i want to talk about when we get the vaccines. i get the idea and it is all over the media about how it is going to be essential workers in the very old and sick, etc. when does the nine-year-old kid

in des moines, iowa, get a vaccine for covid? suspect that sort of age group will have to wait for -- if that is what the states do and the health authorities do, go by age group and susceptibility to the disease, they will have to wait probably back into next year. tom: so what does that mean for the social response of cities and towns? i get the drama of a school closing, and i guess that full didn't to that discussion, but it seems to me like the media, the vaccine is going to be here by march or the summer, or thanksgiving of next year -- do pros like you have a clue when we could actually say all clear? sam: there are two things to think about. first the vaccines have to prove that they have durability, that they last long enough. in terms of the protections they provide. i think there is reason to think that they would. then of course it is not a

black-and-white situation that x number of people are vaccinated, let's go. you have to wait until you get a theingful 70%, 80% of population vaccinated before you can start thinking about the herd immunity. until then, we will have to keep social distancing and wearing masks. hopefully no lockdowns, though. kids pass thisdo thing on? do they have covid and do they pass it? does it make sense closing schools, or because they are largely asymptomatic, the transition -- the transmission rate is much smaller in older kids? sam: i think you guys actually spoke about a study that was done recently, using big data analysis that looks at where the most transmissions occur, and they are hotels and restaurants and gyms. i don't think schools particularly where highlighted

in that study. so it is of course kid to get it , so long as they have the disease, they can potentially pass it, but i don't think there has been any major link to an outbreak back to a school. but we have plenty of time to prove that again. but so far, our worry should be more gyms, hotels, and restaurants. tom: they are serious issues, certainly in new york in the last couple of days, discussion of a struggling hotel business is tangible. sam fazeli, thank you for joining us. on this matter of a pandemic, the gentleman at the mta at 8:30. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance."

tom, we have plenty more on the emerging markets and really focus on south africa. the south african president has reiterated his commitment to reining in the country skyrocketing debt. investment have been going gdp, andelation to our one of the reasons why write the beginning of my tenure as president focused on attracting investment was to try to correct this. and we are in the process of doing so. we set ourselves a goal of attracting $100 billion into our economy in five years. and we are already more than halfway there. commitments are being made by companies and many of these commitments are being actualized . attracting investment is in an

effort to increase investments vis-a-vis our gdp and i think we can turn things around quite significantly. but it also means the public sector, which is government throughout various entities, also needs to demonstrate its own confidence in the economy of our country. so public sector, investment tapered down. we want to boost that. and through the infrastructure ony and through refocusing enterprises, we're going to be able to do so. see the we will also private sector begin to invest more and more. >> mr. president, how confident are you south africa cat of what a sovereign debt crisis? -- can avoid a sovereign debt crisis?

>> we have taken it upon ourselves to draw a line in the decided we are now going to arrest the debt level, bring them down quite significantly over the next four years we want to see our debt being brought down. we are spending far too much money on debt servicing costss, in some cases more than what we pay for education. and that cannot be. we have got to bring down our debt level and make the much more manageable. we are embarking on a variety of stopping wastage, -- and withruption all those measures we're putting in place, i am certain we will be able to bring our debt levels down and avoid what you would call a debt crisis because we

are focused. we're opening up by telling the .ation we have too much debt a country that needs to grow needs to reduce its debt. and through that, we want to be able to generate more debt. in the end, it is through investment that you get growth. as you get growth, your that able to collect more revenue through taxes and we are able to reduce debt. tom: the president of south africa, important comments. with now we have tim ash bluebay asset management. he has had a distinguished career thinking larger and broader about em and sovereign and the mix out there with his public service to the united kingdom and his work at bluebay asset management. tim ash joins us now. we, i want to talk -- i know

will get to turkey and the rest of it, but i want to talk about g20 and the absolute decline we have in multilateralism. how is that affecting emerging economies who right now seem to be doing better with currency appreciation? do they need a g20? do they need a more multilateral post trump world? timothy: every country for himself. in the end over the last four years, what the world got was less global trade, less global growth and the losers were generally in emerging markets. biden, the hope now with hopefully, presumably emerging as president on january 20, is a reversal in the assumption there will be a rethinking about globalization, more inclusive generally. the covid shop -- you're talking about it earlier.

imagine if trump were g20 leaders messed around the table march, april last year, we would have a coordinated response. it might have been very different in terms of the health the impact of the global economy. at the moment, markets are looking to be a bit more optimistic in general. in the end, currencies have done well the last couple of weeks. erdogan created a new monetary policy within his domestic challenges as well. has he taken international economics kool-aid? timothy: he is an incredible character. he is a political animal that has been in power for 20 years. he knows how turkey works in terms of the politics. focusing on this empty decision and the focus that -- assumption

erdogan is going to allow the new governor to massively hike interest rates. he has done that before, right? , 2006-2007. he always takes it to the edge. and he kind of pulls it back. the bottom line is, they're going to hike today. that is pretty clear. he gets it. he knows if he does not hike, it is a disaster for the lira. the previous governor -- the cover is empty. the only way his interest rates. erdogan in the end gets that. how big of a hike do

they need? it needs to be big enough to shore up the currency. the median average is people expecting something like 475 basis once. is that an applicant investors interested? basis 1025 -- we are -- he moves it to 15 and say, well, we are normalizing the rate. i think they will go to 15. i think they will sell it -- try to sell this as a simplification of the regime. in the market wants that. the market does not like this interest-rate corridor all that has smoke and mirrors, hiding to the domestic audience what they're really doing about interest rates. they want a clean, plain vanilla hike, and i think that will go 50% today.

15 percent today. if they don't do that, a lot of money has been poured into turkey. [indiscernible] tom: i believe that was a noise. tim ash, i you still there? timothy: i think i am. tom: i don't know what that was. the miracles of remote. here we are. just to continue this discussion forward on turkey, and is also on the dollar position here on em. what does a biden administration do? do they continue with discussions of currency manipulation? how do they address what i'm

going to call almost a renaissance in emerging-market? look, bidens team, very issuesl, i mean, the big geopolitical wise are russia and china. china, a bit hard for biden to go soft on china. all this ancient stuff we have seen this week on china -- all this sanctions stuff on china we have seen this week. if they stay with the gop, there will be banging on biden's door about china. we have to recognize 2016 and the rust belt story. i don't think there will be any but iular let on china don't think biden is going to be aggressive in terms of the trade war story. i think you will be reaching out to allies like europe to try to improve relations.

make trade fair for everyone. i think we would respect that fact that some places like china have played the system to their advantage, which everyone does, i guess. tom: timothy ash with bluebay asset management on em. i think this is a story for 2020, really interesting to see the thought pieces into 2021 on this new relationship of an theica to em, particularly pacific rim, with what we have seen with adxy surging stronger. with our first word news in new york city, ritika gupta. --h could cope bedstand of the surge in coronavirus cases but will not have enough to slow the spread. shut out joe biden's advisors. vice president mike pence says the media have been crying wolf

about the disease. the job picture in the u.s. has gotten worse as the number of coronavirus cases rises according to the census bureau, the number of employed americans fell by about 4.5 million mid-october to mid-november. amongst the jobless, 4.2 million said they were sick with coronavirus or caring for someone with symptoms. new york city's prospective recovery from the coronavirus faced a double way me. the subway system could be crippled by budget cuts unless washington comes to the rescue. public schools are ending in class instruction for at least two weeks, forcing parents to find alternative childcare arrangements or adjust the work schedules. bank presidentl christine lagarde promising a monetary stimulus package for next month and urging eurozone leaders to do their part. the next generation eu operational become

without delay. this is critically important. >> she says european leaders should make it a priority. europe is expected to be severely affected by the rapid increase in coronavirus infections. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. .oming up, spain amongst the people interviewed, the spanish economy minister and the bank of spain governor coming up a little bit later, 10:00 a.m. in new york, 3:00 p.m. in london. this is "bloomberg." ♪

we have an opportunity here to have a recovery in 2021 that is green. >> we need to invest now. we're going to be coming out of the health and economic crisis. the question is, what direction are we pointing our economy? we're going to point to sustainable growth. >> there is no plan b. sometimes in business you have a plan b. on planet earth, there is no planet be. >> we need to invest in the clean and digital technologies of the future. to make our economies or resilient and our societies and job markets fairer. hasntil the private sector economic incentives to get there, the reality is everybody will continue to act on what they think is their best interest. >> there is a range of things we

can do. in the end, we will not set carbon policy or climate policy, governments are going to do that. electro powered aircraft, another area of focus for us. which is the technologies are not available here yet today, but they will be here 2, 3, 4 years from now. are we supposed to punish those people by black lending companies as investors or should we be black landing the people who are just indiscriminately increasing the demand for carbon production? tom: this is phenomenal. to nod off anddy --to sleep and i think really driving for that conversation on all the things green and climate change at this moment. the idea of folding economics into how we advance forward and

some of that i will be blunt, comes out of the paris accord -- maybe we will see a renaissance of that with president biden. right now to fold this into the renaissance, the change of the -- tom thomas or lick orlik. his acclaimed new book "china: the bubble that never pops." green thing,of a but tom, it is much more about what biden will do. you talk about the china third cycle. what is the first cycle for president biden? here, tom. be was to hear where the focus on two big subjects, china and the u.s. and then how to combine their coverage from the covid recession with the fight against climate change. thinkent-elect biden, i both of those issues will be

jostling for attention at the top of the agenda. first, is it possible to walk and chew gum on china? can the two sides cooperate where there is space for cooperation while still fiercely competing and speaking their minds in other areas? say, climateyou change. biden has signaled he will rejoin the paris accord. can the u.s. get back to a leadership position in the fight against climate change or has too much credibility been lost in the last four years? to the thesisback at a michigan, "the river runs black," in acclaimed book. give us an update on how china, how they fit into a para support discussion. -- paris accord discussion. is chengdu going to be part of the paris accord? tom: o: climate change figures

into the big international meetings as a kind of kumbaya concept. let's all come together over climate change. and of course, as one of the speakers you had in that role said, there is no planet b. ultimately, we have to come together. at the same time, the cost and benefits of fighting aggressively and effectively against climate change are not evenly distributed. china thinks it's bigger costs or temperatures rise. biggere potentially winners if the world moves toward sustainable energy. they have an advantage in solar, wind, and other areas. the u.s., yeah, they face of costs of temperatures rise, but not as severe as the cost switch china, india, and other emerging market space. that is one of the reasons why even as we expect to pivot from biden, that and even distribution of cost and benefit

makes global agreement so hard to achieve. tom, good morning from london. does that mean debt relief is probably going to be most contentious point in 2021? tom o: hi, francine. the covid shock has triggered an extraordinary increase in government borrowing. if it weren't 10 years ago, alarm bells would be -- if it were 10 years ago, alarm bells would be ringing. we would have the hocks saying this is not sustainable. right now the debate has moved on. we are in a world of what looks like sustainably low interest rates. that means everyone from larry summers to the international monetary fund to wall street stresseds are less about that. yes, ultimately, that money will have to be paid down. it will not be an immediate

priority for 2021. something should be high on the agenda, and we need to think more about come is how we get back to the debt relief agenda for developing economies. we will see if that bubbles up or not. gave a great, you presentation at the economy form looking at the world in 2050. for that fills a million years away. -- for many that feels a million years away. what will be between now and then if we do not adjust or adapt our economies? tom o: we modeled three things. we look to the base case projecting 2050 for china, the u.s., all the world's major economies. then we layered on top of that scenarios for globalization, whether global ties advance or stricter fracture, and scenarios for climate change -- whether failsrld gets with it or

and allows temperatures to continue rising. the big take away is the difference between a cool and coordinated planet or globalization is on track and we fight effectively against climate change and a hot and fragmented planet where we get both of those things wrong is really immense. by 2050, it adds up to $36 trillion in global gdp. roughly equivalent to the entire output of china and the united states. orlik, greatly appreciated, bloomberg economic chief economist this morning. features, -11. this is "bloomberg." ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom, the markets are really struggling for any kind of clear direction. two stories we laid out very clearly is on the one hand we have better news on the vaccine. on the other, more restrictions and also the number of infected around the world rising. i think the market is struggling

to put the two together. one day of falls and one day it rises and today it is focusing on new york schools being shut and more restrictions around the world. in looking at the pound specifically, but we have a new deadline days away. tom: oil finally giving it back a bit. gold, down $18. we have much, much more for you. lots of good conversation. marc chandler joins on foreign-exchange, on the astronomy of international economics. this is "bloomberg." ♪

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deaths in america. new york city closes schools. , you could not walk a dog stop bitcoin to the moon. gold crushed and equities turned this morning. 75-foot boat waste spruce at rockefeller -- norway spruce rockefeller came e attached with an owl. in london.released "bloomberg surveillance." we are waiting right now, the turkish rate decision. francine, this is a massive, massive change in capitulation of mr. erdogan to the wishes of international economics. the one headline of a stub didn't -- standing 15%.