in a much worse place today that we were in the first half of over -- half of october. >> you are not going to get a continuation of this straight upward movement. there will be pullbacks. -- ina very short term the very short-term, we are very much d. >> this vexing news is game changing -- this vaccine news is game changing. it gives us a bridge to policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures slightly negative. the brutal reality of the here and now catching up with the help of 2021. tom: it is going to be

interesting to see the 2021 look forwards. all we have is good conversation and a look at the tea leaves. lisa is going to talk about jobless claims and all the rest of it, but i want to look at the granularity. is a pandemic ago stock, and there is the reality which i believe you mentioned yesterday. i can't remember which property you mentioned it on. you know what? retail is really struggling. jonathan: this is the story. a stock like macy's has done pretty well over the past week, but that is the difference between the ketchup trade -- the catch-up trade and a durable trade. i think that is the story for hours.t couple of we got to get through the next couple of months.

tom: i mean, it is a comedy. but this is not funny. in south australia, you can now not walk your dog because of pandemic fears. talk ofes of the macro the bloomberg new economy forum and the realities that lisa has been talking about here day by day. that gets your attention. jonathan: and initial jobless claims will get your attention as well. lisa: this goes to your point about the difficult here and now. my question is how much more permanent scarring are we going to get as a result of the difficult journey in the weeks and months ahead. 8:30, u.s. initial jobless claims are expected to climb slightly from last week, but really we are looking at the number of firings. how many businesses are just simply shutting down as we see

those virus numbers climb? 8:45 a.m., you were talking about new york city. we are going to be talking about the dire situation for the public transit. the mta ceo joins us here on bloomberg television. they are facing massive cuts to service, firings of many employees because they have not .otten that federal aid modernabe hearing from again on the promise of the fiber suitable -- promise of the pharmaceutical response. it will be interesting to see what the new reality is for big tech given the fact that so much hope has been baked into the stock prices and the stay-at-home trade. jonathan: let's get to the price action of this morning. this thursday morning, equities slightly negative. we bounce back a little bit on

the s&p 500, by 0.3%. small caps on the russell outperforming the nasdaq bite 9% since last monday. in the fx market, euro-dollar $1.1837. in the bond market, yields up to 97 basis points. 0.8537% is your you love the 10 year, and the story has not changed. the questions we are asking has not changed. 2021 could be better, but is a tug-of-war between the back end of 2021 and the reality of here and now. tom: on the bond market, we are not in on yield yet where the support gets broken, but it is something worth watching day after day. you've got a wonderful guest that can meld all of this together. jonathan: we've got a wonderful

guest. keep the faith, trust the recovery. andrew sheets joins us now, morgan stanley chief cross at that -- chief cross asset strategy. how much will that faith we tested in the coming months? andrew: good morning. we are clearly in for a very difficult winter. we think economic data is going to slow, certainly in the u.s., and i think very importantly, you have had a lot of sentiment measures in the market become a lot more optimistic postelection, post some of this vaccine news, so that also needs to get worked off. but ultimately, i think these are short-term issues for the market, not long-term issues for the market. i think this is about limited pullbacks that ultimately are going to get bought by the market because i do think that investors will look at weakness over the next couple of months as may be their last best chance to position for a more

normalizing, stronger recovery in the year ahead. as it is that i think a lot of investors have gotten more optimistic postelection, in terms of the actual amount of money that has been deployed into the market, the actual shifts in investment approaches, i think those have been a lot more muted, so there is more of that rotation. tom: one of the great proxies here is the vix, a stunning 23.57. that is a measure of uncertainty. what is the next uncertainty? , across your asset classes at morgan stanley, is the next great mystery out there? andrew: i think there are a few things we need to watch. i think there is some uncertainty about how much the market has internalized the rise in case counts we will see in the u.s. going forward, and i do think this is also where a

global perspective is necessary because the u.s. case counts do look like they will continue to get much worse. cases in europe are looking like they are stabilizing. cases in asia are on a very different trajectory. yes, i think the virus case count is a very here and now asue, but also somewhat of u.s. focused issue. we also have some key government deadlines. we have a funding deadline coming in the middle of december to avoid a government shutdown. is that theelief market expectations on further fiscal stimulus are low, so the disappointment from anything would be modest, but i think that is another uncertainty the market would like to get through. lisa: you say there are all these uncertainties in the near term, but longer-term it is looking bright. bond markets are not buying the optimism.

you can see yields trending lower, yield curves flattening. you can see breakeven rates coming down. this does not bode well longer-term. it does not fit with the narrative many people are offering up to go into cyclical stocks at this point. who's got it wrong? andrew: i think that is a great point. i think what we are seeing and bond markets is inconsistent with our story of a stronger viewery next year, so our is we think the bond market yields will adjust higher rather than the cyclicals in the equity market ultimately adjusting a lot lower over the next 12 months. i do think this is about getting through the winter peak. our analysts think that peak could come sometime around late december or early january. i think once you can see the downward slope of u.s. cases, i think it will be a lot harder for u.s. yields to potentially

hold their current levels. if we think about the arithmetic for next year, ellen zentner, our u.s. economist, has both had about 6% next year, and we have a you best in your yield at less than 1%. a u.s. 10 year yield at less than 1%. line, it can make some sense that that is supporting bond yields for now, but this might be the best support those yields get because this is the most uncertain things will get. the closer we get to january 1, the more that support starts to fade away. bullish, you guys are looking for 1.45% on the u.s. ten-year. experience here i think is really important. the experience of spring. i wonder whether the lessons we learned from spring are the right lessons. we have to shut down a new york

on march 13. 10 days later, the market bottomed. the market bottomed the fed stepped in and started buying credit. i wonder whether that is the right lesson, the degree to which we have been conditioned by spring, and why some people refuse to sell risk going into a dark winter. tom: this is really critical. is he fed going to stun us with action? andrew: i think it is. i don't think the fed will stun us with action, but it will remind us that the fed is still providing liquidity. this is a really critical difference with some past cycles. a reason why we think the bond market is wrong as we do not think we are heading to japanification scenario because we had a far more aggressive fiscal and monetary policy response than we ever saw in japan. i think the fact that the fed has reduced some of that tail risk, the fed can kind of help spring,t bridge to the

i think that is very important for keeping equity corrections to the single-digit level rather .han the double-digit level jonathan: to constructive outlook for major sheets, thank you. constructive outlook with andrew sheets, thank you. if you add a ton of debt to an economy, your tolerance for higher interest rates is greatly reduced. the dynamism around that economy is also diminished because you are keeping bad companies, so to speak, alive to some extent. we've all talked about the zombie economy. i think it is pretty understandable to expect inflation to be lower. is that the kind of story we need to be taking about? tom: i don't know if lisa is still there, but frankly, it is about the debt and the deficit. lisa: i am still here, and that is exactly the point of low

growth going forward. that is exactly the point the central bankers have been making, that there outlook is not materially changed as a result of the vaccine. jonathan: keep the faith. no faith in lisa's ability to put up with us for longer than 10 minutes. [laughter] is she still there, 12 minutes into the show? coming up in the next hour, pat foy, mta chairman and ceo. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: joe biden warns that the delay in starting the presidential transition could set back the efforts to distribute a coronavirus vaccine. the general services administration has refused to begin the process while president trump the election results. leaders of the national so season of manufacturers is urging the trump administration to begin working with biden. in wisconsin, election officials

have ordered a partial vote recount that was requested by the trump campaign. there will be recounts in two heavily democratic counties. recounts have historically shifted only hundreds of votes. the controversial nomination of judy shelton to the federal reserve board is hanging by a thread, and there is little chance it will be revived. the senate is preparing for its thanksgiving recess. once lawmakers return, democrats will be picking up another seat. that makes confirming shelton an even tougher battle. the u.k. and canada are on the brink of reaching a post-brexit trade deal. that would avert each side imposing tariffs when the transition period ends. an agreement could be announced within days. the city of phoenix --global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta.

this is bloomberg. ♪

mr. biden: i can't do any of this until i am sworn in.

i mean, there's hardly been a meeting that has taken place in the white house about any of this. jonathan: the pressure intensifying just a little bit from the bite side. that was president-elect joe biden on the transition process. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. let's touch base on the price action this thursday morning as we count you down to initial jobless claims, one hour and 12 minutes away. four, futures are down off by 0.1%. 0.5%on the week by about coming into thursday. treasury yields coming down a basis point to 0.857%. stronger against pretty much everything with the exception of the turkish lira. dive, aira taking a 470 point hike from the turkish

central bank. tom: we didn't see it to the the othersome of technical indicators, but yes, strong lira. it was a good day for mr. erdogan. right now, kevin cirilli joins us from washington. we can talk about turkish relations. mr. cirilli channeling roy orbison this morning. i want to talk about only the lonely at the white house, which looks like a fundraising concern. i want to cut to the chase. is all of this angst we are seeing about the president raising money? kevin: in terms of fundraising, it is really going to come down to whether president trump wants to try to make a calculation beyond the january 5 runoff in georgia. i was speaking to sources yesterday, and they are telling me the president and his inner circle is still trying to figure out what their long-term objectives are. is it to get into game for 2022?

is it to get in conservative media circles? is it to run for reelection or play a kingmaker of sorts in 2024? in just a few weeks, on december 11, when the continuing resolution is set to expire in washington, that could be the last opportunity that this president has two really shake up something with congress, and mark meadows, his chief of staff, was on capitol hill yesterday. after that meeting, he said he couldn't guarantee that there wouldn't be another government shutdown. president'ses the advantage of doing a shut down as he is packing his bags? kevin: this would be the third government shutdown and his presidency, should there be one, the last one having lasted more than a month. in terms of what it should mean, it would be an opportunity for there to be a fiscal fight potentially over stimulus. this as republicans are divided

in terms of the scope of another round of stimulus. jonathan: a government shutdown when part of the country are locking down. what happened to the senate yesterday? where are they now? how long are they gone for? kevin: they are gone until at least after the thanksgiving holiday, and then they come back for that continuing resolution. the positive development on the vaccination front, despite the surge in hospitalizations over the past couple of weeks not just in the united states come about around the world, and of course what has been going on in new york city, a clear illustration front and center about what people are not only having to face from a schooling perspective, but also from a public official and employee perspective. amplifying is really the debate in washington, but as you just alluded to, they are not going to be here for at least another week. lisa: you said it is amplifying the debate. is there a sense of urgency?

it is not just new york city. we talk so much about new york city, but frankly, cases are spiking in the central part of the united states. this is a real issue across the nation. is there no urgency? kevin: i think that is a great point. i spoke with a republican congressman from indiana, with the 45th worst covid rates in the world. the positive develop and some the vaccination front are having democrats are urging for there to be more stimulus, and leader mcconnell and republicans saying it is the fourth quarter, to ride it out. they are dug in, ended there is no compromise. lisa: and remind me of what jamie dimon said yesterday.

it is ridiculous. just get something done. is that what we are heading toward, or can they not flip the baby? tom: where are we on stimulus, if jamie dimon says it is chump change? kevin: i think the business round table is sending clear signals that they are playing the short-term game in terms of what is next on january 21, so they are already laying the groundwork in terms of how that is going to look. i was struck by senator lindsey graham yesterday, essentially said that president trump ought to be briefing on national security as well as on coronavirus, with president-elect joe biden. he didn't refer to him as such, but it was a clear indication that there can still be lingering questions in the courts while also briefing the transition team. tom: jon, are you still with us? [laughter] jonathan: still here, standing

by. i haven't left. i've come close, though. trade to catch up. i've tried to walk out a few times, and management has brought me back in. lisa: go on. jonathan: kevin, thank you. do you want me to tell you more of the story? lisa: let's go. we've got all morning. jonathan:, and i have had our blowups in the past, i thing it is fair to say. i'm not sure that is a surprise to anybody. ago when this was just on radio, i could step away and then management could pull me back in and push me back into the studio, and now i don't have that option. -- the problemle is when you get your entourage, and management can see you making your exit. lisa: this is the reason why jon is carried to set. tom: you've got it right. [laughter] jonathan: kicking and screaming. i think what you did about three minute ago is really important. there is something quite new york center about some of the

country stations -- some of the conversations we have sometimes. it was how the market responded to new york schools shutting down. the market actually responded to that, as if that was a surprise. as if it had to be new york to wake up to what was happening in the rest of the country. tom: i know a guy who did a masters at washington university in st. louis, and he correlated natural gas prices with the temperature at the subway entrance to wall street. it is a 76% correlation. jonathan: there you go. tom: that's all you need to know. [laughter] it is all new york. jonathan: absolutely. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here in london and new york, coming up on this program, lisa hornby, schroeder investment portfolio manager. i promise we will all still be here. [laughter]

i can't make promises for tom. i never can. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." the questions of the last week haven't changed. how much confidence do you have in 2021, and how much bad news are you willing to tolerate? here's the price action of this thursday morning. equity futures declined by about 0.1% on the s&p 500, but the story of the last week or so is about the spread between the s&p 500, the nasdaq, and the russell. monday, 7% to 9% of outperformance on the small caps relative to big tech. it is not about where you are long at the moment. it is about which pocket of the market you sit in specifically. not at the headline level, at the sector level. switch of the board and get to the bond market. i want to talk about treasuries very briefly.

,op end of the range last week 97 basis points on the 10 year. we just can't get back to those levels. drip feed of vaccine news not enough to give this a lift. it is about the data. yields come in a basis point to 0.8586 percent on the u.s. 10 year. the10 and in em today, dollar more broadly showing some real strength against g10 and emerging markets, with the exception of this one. 10% movera has a since september 6. a new central banker coming in, a stronger down to turkish lira. that is not enough to get back and reclaim central bank credit ability. they need to do more than just move ones. this is going to be about accumulating that acrylic bitterly -- that i credibility over time.

yield and onw on the bond market, lisa hornby with us with schroeder investment come out of barclays and the wonderful economic program at rutgers as well. i want to go to that econ 101 concept of elasticity, and that is the dynamic of yield. we are in a new yield regime, supposedly. when you see the movement of yield, is it a new elasticity or not? lisa: yields are as low as they are, people doing their 2021 forecasts saying where can things go from here in the u.s., and we did some work looking at european yields. obviously we started this year at much lower yields, and yet delivered returns of 20% year-to-date. you look at a very low yield environment and say, is there

any value left? the answer is it depends on where we are going to go from here. certainly there is a term of this liquidity in the system, a lot of demand, and that is particularly true in fixed income markets in the u.s., where there are still some positive real yielding assets out there. lisa: people are looking at $17 trillion of negative yielding debt, a record high globally. we look to increase deficits going forward, and you have morgan stanley saying this can't last. people are optimistic about the future and you are going to see yields rise. it is going to be tough to be in duration. do you agree, or do you think they have it wrong, and the overhang of debt will keep growth so slow that yields here make sense? lisa: that is the question. i think in the near term, we are certainly going to be grappling , hospitalization

rates rising, and how that is going to affect the economic data. but if we take a longer-term perspective, we had a pretty supportive market. central banks are certainly not going to get in the way. we are still looking at more fiscal stimulus in various parts of the world, including the u.s. possibly in january. it is a very supportive environment for financial assets. if you take a longer-term look, isaac we are in a cyclical discovery -- longer-term look, i think we are in a cyclical discovery phase, but when you look out even longer-term, we are still dealing with very large debt burdens, and it is hard to see an environment where yields get aggressively higher from where they are. jonathan:? lisa h: if you think about where we started this year and credit markets, we came into it in the

10th decile or so. credit spreads were as tight as they have been for a very long time, and if you came into this year listening to that, you are relatively low on risk. that set you up perfectly for what we saw in march and april with spreads blowing out to basically their 90th percentile, 95th percentile over a long-term range. able to take advantage of that, you did quite well this year. now we are kind of past that easy period in markets where the easy money has been made, now it is about getting the industries right, getting the issuers right, looking hard -- looking at sectors that are going to benefit from the vaccine going forward. valuations bet your guide. jonathan: the reason i ask this is because i think many people

don't think we will see spreads blowout again. there is discomfort with the fed being in the market, this belief that some new people are conditioned by what happened after spring, why step out because you are going to miss out on the levels. wonder whether that is the right lesson to take away from spring. lisa h: historically, the starting point certainly matters. i think your point that perhaps we are in a regime now where spreads can move to the tighter end of their range and stay there for a bit longer, so you have to adjust your valuation barometer a bit, but at the end of the day, spreads are mean reverting. when you're not being paid to take risk, you shouldn't be doing it. that is certainly the approach we have taken to managing money, and certainly what we will do going forward, so we will listen to what the price tells us. when there is not opportunity, we will diversify away from

corporate credit and look at other areas read we are looking at things like taxable municipal bonds, where you still see strong fundamentals in certain parts of the market, and attractive valuations. lisa a: in credit, what doesn't look expensive historically? high-yield bonds are yielding 4.8% at a time when we have slow growth expectations ahead. lisa h: i think there's a couple of pockets. first of all, you have the covid related sectors that are still trading cheap on an aggregate basis. there are companies within those sectors that are positioned to withstand the next six months of volatility. they have the cash flow, they have the balance sheet cash to insulate them, and they will be able to make it through this period and then poised to benefit from the cyclical recovery we will see on the other side. i think there's issuers within the aircraft manufacturing space, for example, within

travel, within tourism that fit that bill. i mentioned the municipal space. certainly universities are going to benefit. airports are going to benefit when we come out on the others of this. you need to look for the right issuers within the sector, so airports with lots of cash on hand, with reserves on hand, but if you can find those names, and there are many of them, that i think you will be poised to benefit on the others of this crisis. john templeton years ago predicted there will be a shortage of bonds. i would suggest the greatest surprise as we end this year is the idea of the expansion of debt, and yet we still feel there is a shortage of bonds. ?s there a shortage of bonds [laughter] lisa h: it depends how you look at it, i suppose would tell you

that there's still a term of this amount of demand out there. i focus primarily on the u.s. markets, and overseas investors still benefit from buying u.s. dollar-denominated yields relative to their own home market, so from that perspective, i suppose you can say yes, there's not enough of them because if there were, we would see yields moving higher and not lower, despite debt loads increasing across the board. tom: lisa hornby, thank you so much. greatly appreciate it. jon, you were way out front on this. i remember greece and particularly italy, where people can rationalize debt irresponsibility, and yet, as i write that as a basic european 2020 statement, it was price up, yield lower? jonathan: absolutely, because of the ecb involvement in the market, also the momentum behind some of these traits. declined for many of

these countries across europe. you asked the question have we got a shortage of bonds. depends how you ask. if you ask a central banker right now, they might actually say yes. if they wanted to ramp up qe and a massive way, they got to ramp up debt in germany, and dare i say in the united states as well. tom: lisa, i know you are developing a program for 2021, the real high-yield, but i was taken a back by 4.8%. lisa a: this is one of my fundamental questions. how much of a fed backstop is this really baking and? jon keeps asking what did we learn in march, and the answer for a lot of people is a pavlovian response that if things get tough, the fed is going to bail you out. is that the message we are hearing right now? is that the message in high-yield bonds at a time when

companies are closing their doors, despite the fact that we will eventually get a vaccine? is talking think she to you, tom. lisa: tom, are you still there? [laughter] tom: if it is bond talk, i check out. lisa: you brought it up. you can't bring it up and then check out. tom: i brought it up because you two are actually really smart at this. jon, i remember when a high-yield piece under 8% was suspect. i mean, come on. jonathan: how do you expect a marketing discount risk when it has a price-sensitive buyer? tom: i agree, it is artificial. how does lisa hornby structure a portfolio with a five year vision with this elephant in the room? lisa: but the fed is not going to backstop solvency. at a certain point, the fed will step away. at what point will that happen? jonathan: will it?

lisa: they are not going to bail them out of bankruptcy? jonathan: no, i don't think they are, but i don't think that that is ever going to step away from the credit market. the ecb still going for it. the boj is buying etf equities. that's where the boj has been for the last several years. tom: italy, negative yields. jonathan: there you go. coming up on this program, dr. jonathan quick of the rockefeller foundation. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. . the trump administration has assured states they will have enough equipment to handle the surge in coronavirus cases, but it is not doing anything to slow the virus's spread, and the trump team continues to shut out joe biden's advisors. vice president mike pence has said the media has been crying wolf about the disease. the job picture in the u.s. has gotten worse as the number of

cases rises. according to the census bureau, the number of employed americans fell about 4.5 million from mid-october to mid-november. among the jobless, 4.2 million say they were sick with coronavirus or caring for someone with symptoms. new york city's prospects of recovery from the coronavirus face a double whammy. are ending in class instruction for at least two weeks, forcing parents to find alternative childcare arrangements or adjust their work schedules. the so-called five eyes intelligence partnership has called out beijing and hong kong. the group urged beijing to quit --ermining the riots

undermining the rights of hong kong residents. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

it is important to understand, is there something in our dna that makes you more

likely to be susceptible? we have a large community of individuals who said they did not have covid, where we have their dna, so we are looking to work with pharma partners about can we help with treatments. jonathan: the 23 and me ceo and cofounder. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. ,ood morning to you all thursday morning. jobless claims 50 tyumen it's away -- 42 minutes away, rather. . this economy slowing down. in the fx market, euro-dollar down to $1.1835. s&p futures down about two points. no drama here. a pause within the november drama. let's get to it here on the pendant. there's lots of people managing the message right now. that is something dr. jonathan quick has never done. he's with the rockefeller foundation, and he is definitive

and thinking about epidemics. it is truly the bible on these modern processes. thank you so much for joining us. how does the pandemic and? -- depend, kindt -- the pandemic back -- thed pandemic end? it either ends when it runs out of wood, humans, or when there is a response, basically dumping water all over it, which is what a safe and effective vaccine would do. those are the two ways it can end. we are letting that forest fire run out of control in this country. i say this with great

respect for all watching and listening that are suffering, is the reason it maybe doesn't feel as angry as april or may because we have killed off so many old people? is our pandemic demographic now different than it was in spring? dr. quick: it is different than it was in the spring in the sense that overall, we are seeing fewer deaths per case because it has become a pandemic across all generations, and we are seeing more of the youth. that we stilly is have tens of millions of people who are at risk. i thing we need to understand the consequences of the inaction because it is not just the fact hit we are on a pathway to

deaths of nearly a half million people, over 400,000 by march if we don't do something. that is one part of it. the other is millions of people who have had covid who are going to have the lingering consequences. , that went sars global into thousand three, and we are seeing it again today, that perhaps 1/4 of the people have lingering disability, not to mention the fact that letting this go out of control, people are not going to feel safe going out. they are not going to feel safe in schools. so i think we have a real challenge by just letting it run wild. we know what to do, and it doesn't involve crashing the economy. lisa: hold on a second. you talk about how is not just the deaths, it is that the

prevalence could have ramifications far beyond our comprehension now. theave 250,000 deaths in united states. we don't even know where people are getting the virus at this point. has track and trace died at this point, given how pervasive covid has become? dr. quick: track and trace at this point is going to be less important in the majority of places that are having it. that is not true, though, in more focused settings like schools and workplaces, where we still have some opportunity. is averall, the key thing handful of core actions. everybody mask. restrict dangerous indoor places. limit gatherings over 10. stay home if symptomatic. businesses provide leave, and governments help support business. it is not complicated. it is not like a menu, you choose one of the other. what we know clearly from 1918

and again now is doing all of these things together until we have bent the curve, and we can do it without crashing the economy. people will look around and say the death rate is low, even when we have a pervasive virus. why not let it go rampant? why shut down my social life? why increase the incidence of depression and the widening gap in inequality and a whole host of other issues? what would you say to some of those people about some of the restrictions coming out, saying these are harming us more than helping us? dr. quick: i think the thing is to be focused without restrictions, and recognize that , yes, there is going to be some short-term individual sacrifice, but it is going to pay off for the long term collective welfare. we are only accelerating. when you are getting up to death

, cumulative death rates of 400,000, it is the total effect of that on society. it is really taking a short-term sacrifice for the collective long-term benefit. jonathan: really concerning numbers. we've got to leave it there, unfortunately. i appreciate your time. thank you. look forward to getting you back soon. want to bring you some headlines from united airlines. i think it is important to recognize not just the covid rate increase over the last few months and the policy response to that, but also how consumers respond to this as well. united airlines noting a deceleration in bookings in the last week, an uptick in cancellations from the recent covid-19 spike. pretty clear how consumers are starting to disengage just a little bit more, regardless of whether the policymaker steps and were not. tom: air france out with a set

of brutal headlines as well today. maybe the dutch have to do something off of klm air france as well. what is important is the last five or six days, they really allude to a present slowdown. jonathan: from air france, the capital rate situation, that is the direction of travel. looking to raise more capital. in the last couple of days, guy follows the airlines very closely for us here at bloomberg, and he was saying this is the problem for anyone long and some of the stocks. will they be using the rally for an equity raise, a cash call in the next quarter? that is the issue. tom: agri, you see share dilution and bond dilution -- i agree, you see share dilution and bond dilution, but what if they rollover off the duration to get back business travel? jonathan: that is a question for yu, coming up on

this program. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv this thursday morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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- [narrator] compare prices to get the best discounts. - goodrx, smart. - [narrator] stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today. >> we are in a much worse place today then we were in the first half of october. >> we have seen a massive momentum shift that we don't think investors should be ignoring. >> we will not get a continuation of this straight upward movement. there will be pullbacks. >> the fed has been quite clear that they expect the federal government to hopefully provide more income support. >> what we really want is for congress to do his job, and that is not happening. >> the vaccine news is game changing. this gives us a bridge to policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.