astrazeneca's coronavirus vaccine prevents on average 70% of cases, falling short of the high bar set by pfizer and moderna. tougher tiers ahead. boris johnson will outline the u.k.'s winter strategy today. the measures are expected to include a big increase in community testing and more stringent rules post-lockdown. and the new cabinet. bloomberg learns that president-elect joe biden has landed a longtime advisor, anthony blinken, as his secretary of state. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, i know it's thanksgiving week, so we look at retail sales and what the fed -- it is a shorter week for a lot of american traders. the focus in europe is firmly on the vaccines and the fact that we have pretty encouraging news over the last 10 days. first it started with moderna, then pfizer, and astrazeneca is not as efficient as the others but it doesn't need those freezing temperatures to be transported, and he could be a

cheaper auction -- it could be a cheaper option. tom: we will talk about that with sam fazeli. over here it is about the hospitalization. it has been an extraordinarily difficult pandemic weekend full-time america tries to move on, and someone moving on is the president-elect with news from bloomberg overnight on appointments to be had, i believe, tuesday. even while the president contests in wisconsin. francine: we will have a full round up of u.s. elections as well. let's get to bloomberg first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: another promising development in the fight to end the coronavirus pandemic. the vaccine developed by the university of oxford as astrazeneca prevented a majority of people in a large trial from getting the disease. it stop and average from 70% from falling ill, below the high bar set by pfizer and moderna, but effectiveness did rise to

90% for one of two dosing regimes. joe biden plans to name anthony en as secretary of state. when he was -- when biden was vice president, he served as his national security advisor. and the trump administration reportedly will then tech exports in 89 chinese aerospace and other companies. haver says the companies ties to the chinese military. it is a move that could escalate tensions at the biden administration plans to take over. rishi sunak said he will increase spending this week. he is trying to shore up the economy after a resurgence after the coronavirus.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am ritikantries, gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. a nice lift to the markets this morning as we look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. the vix doesn't show me much right now, 23.38. we will see how that goes. yields higher, back within range. i don't want to make too much of that. oil is the story. 46 on brent, 45.78. point 09., 43 the currency market is fascinating. we have continued dollar weakness, yen 103.79. sterling, francine is living large. one of 3.71. -- 103.70 one. why is sterling stronger? francine: there is more update -- more upbeat about the pinchot

deal. the victim of brexit related headlines with options suggesting the deal is largely priced in. so you're right, at the same time demand for puts are staying strong across with the front end better than dollar top size. we have been talking to analysts about this and spending time on. overall, the market seems to be pleased with the vaccine news. there is a lift to the market, but there is not huge news out there, given that it is a shorter week in the u.s. to talk about sterling, to talk about dollar, and anything in between is jeremy stretch. what do you do with pound right now, and good morning. jeremy: optimism on the good news is already baked in because of the brexit story. there is already discussion over the weekend that it is 95% complete. the structural

problem because those are the thornier issues which we need to see results. what we are seeing some degree of upside, but we're getting close to when opportunity. i think there are still inherent issues in the context of the u.k. tlc. we will see that when we see the chancellor announced his spending review on wednesday, but more important that we will see that in terms of the degree -- i think we will start to face these sterling rallies, and i think anywhere the 135 --34.5 or the backdrop where you were expected the u.s. dollar to be a generalized underperformer. happens if we don't have a brexit deal? is the uncertainty that we are all dealing with. it is as we get to this late stage still the central case , the perspective for a

prolonged period. if there is no deal, and we start to dust off those discussions about what the ramifications will be in terms of the macro performance to the u.k. under wto trade terms. the optimist will say it is not that different from the sort of brexit that is being negotiated, but nevertheless i think certainly it would be viewed as a negative scenario, so i think we could easily see a substantial retreat back to lowling, not back to thes one point 20's, but the market is anticipating that there would be a resolution and there will , but alle deal agreed in thenomic challenges u.k., we will avoid that. interested -- interest rate play or a flow player? what is driving foreign-exchange

right now? jeremy: i think it is a general flow based story. there are increased levels of optimism. it is interesting that this is the third monday in a row where think wewn with -- i are seeing this gradual realization that the dawning of a vaccine related euro is coming that much closer. now of course we hope there are not going to be any impediments to that, but nervous with that vaccine related optimism, there are encouraging flows into the higher risk and emerging-market currencies, so that is continuing the broader based theme. set against that, you have this realization that with a lack of fiscal stimulus evidence in the u.s., that probably still leaves a significant degree of onus on the federal reserve. i think that is also playing into the narrative of the u.s. dollar being a general underperformer. it is dollar underperformance, the euro will perhaps struggle and be a short leg of the trade,

but is a higher risk of currencies that are performing well. tom: one of the big moves happened moments ago. --have stronger mexican peso with e.m. over the last couple of weeks. it is like dow 10,000, having 24, 23,peso reach 20, 21, down to 20 come and we finally come back down and getting 19 print on peso. happen, jeremy? is it just enthusiasm for em? jeremy: i think it is. we should not lose sight of the fact that the residue of this president for election is not very much different than the previous one where mexico was front and center. but if we are in an environment where nations will perform relatively well, where we were looking for negative yield, then it has been evident that mexico has been looking reasonably attractive.

so you are right, we have seen this move lower, and i was talking to our spot trader this morning who has been running this trade from the short side looking for the dollar to go lower. he is also mindful of the psychological barrier that will prove to be one which might be an opportunity just to lighten up some positions. it may well be the case that we have seen a solid run, and it may be an opportunity to a book a little bit of profit, particularly in the holiday shortened week. francine: what do you make -- a lot of the focus is on renminbi. do you worry about default in china, or will the country power ahead? jeremy: well, i think the issue of the corporate sector default or the question marks about the backing sector is something that we see markets periodically freaking about. we remain constructive on the construction as a whole and we will continue to see the

currency gaining through the course of the next few weeks, so -- there aren obvious uncertainties, yes, there will be? 's as to how the new administration will play the china story and whether there in terms ofges macro relationships, but we have to remain mindful of those issues regarding capital adequacy or the financial sector uncertainty. but i think it is not a story which to our minds is going to derail the china story, so we continue to be relatively seeish and continuing to dollar moving. francine: if we have a vaccine that works and distribute it that is widely available in the next two to three months, doesn't it make it more likely that there is a central bank policy mistake? too much monetary support, we have a vaccine inflation

vaccine, inflation shoots up, and it is out of control? reflatione story of is definitely going to be front and center through the course of 2021, not the least of which because arithmetically in view of the collapse we have seen in terms of prices, there is going to be a rebound. i think we are still in a scenario where central banks are looking to add stimulus. we can expect that from the ecb next month. thatere is a risk perhaps there could be a little bit of overstimulation, and that comes back into the narrative of being supportive in risk assets. are we going to see a significant spike in inflation? i think we are going to see greater degrees of inflation re-inference in terms of next year, and that will be something that investors need to be increasing in mind flow. i don't think we will be in a scenario where we see a central bank policy mistake because the vaccine news is encouraging, but we're still possibly three or

four months away from seeing a generalized rollout of the vaccines that will facilitate a degree of normality in the global backdrop. tom: jeremy stretch, thank you so much. we do this with dollar weaker. i have to look on the chart, maybe on the break, and see if that is new dollar weakness. in the next hour, looking forward to michael spence, the laureate. i want to talk to him about information, how he won the nobel prize in the information that is out there as we move from trump to. michael spence at 6:00. this is bloomberg. ♪

."m: "bloomberg surveillance

an interesting week to say the least. usually this week is quiet, somehow i don't think so this week. this vaccine news -- we want to get to that -- but right now dr. sam fazeli steps in, with all his knowledge of pharmacology. i want to go to the mathematics. we got a chart here, folks, a nice chart of california and new york state. in new york, the big bubble in white first, then california, months later on. they both turn up, and the rate of change is really not good. sam, tell us about the second derivative that you observed worldwide. tom,it is interesting, because a little while we did highlight the fact that there is a disparity creeping into the data between the number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

frankly, when it comes down to this data come you have to be very careful of what you are looking at because every region -- i don't know what it is like in the states, but every state has the same rule as to when to count a death as a covid death. but i know for a fact that in the you -- in the u.k., europe, they count them differently. cases, you have somebody testing positive at pcr. hospitalization, they going to hospital, they have covid-19. when they die, it becomes difficult to assess these numbers. all tragic stuff, but we still really have to keep an eye on what we are trying to draw from these numbers. tom: i look, sam, and where we are in the vaccines, and i just got a tweet and i want you to comment on this. it is so important. we are treating the vaccine game in the media like it is hot in hand manchester city. it is like a sporting event.

what do the pros think about they did 70% and they did 80% and they did 93% and they should fit that correctly. come on, it is not a sporting event, is it? sam: absolutely not, but at the end of the day when you have a vaccine that gives you 70% equity -- efficacy, versus one that is 90% higher, you have to think about the maps going forward. you have to inoculate when it is the right answer when it comes to the final analysis. you are going to have to inoculate many more people with the 70% efficacy vaccine then you need with the 94% efficacy vaccine to get to that crazy herd immunity. francine: is the biggest hurdle now getting people to take these vaccines? sam: absolutely. francine: you have to convince people that they are safe.

sam: that is the biggest prop. that is the biggest problem, and of course with astrazeneca -- francine: in people's eyes, which one is safer? some of these vaccines we know about, the others are a brand-new type of vaccine. the we need to wait and see safety data for the astrazeneca vaccine. so far the pfizer looks more tolerable than the moderna vaccine, and we will have to wait for the report. many doses can be available? if you look at the timeline, how do you reach herd immunity? how many need to take the shot and how long does it need to last for, and are you certain that you don't pass it on what you have the vaccine? sam: you need to have at least to, 80% of people covered get herd immunity with that sort of 95% effective vaccine. of course, it depends on what the background infection rate

has been, so therefore how many people already have immunity. beyond that, even if you have some transmission, you can get this out. you can get out from under it. tom: sam fazeli, thank you so much. we greatly appreciate it this morning, out of all of our former colicky coverage -- pharmacology coverage of the vaccine as well. dollar weaker is a big deal. looking over at mexican peso, 19.99 right now on the mexican peso, so we are seeing advancing em. next hour, joshua sharfstein of the bloomberg school of public health in baltimore. in the 6:00 hour. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom and francine from london and new york. rivian automotive is having a tough time getting it's better for its pickup truck. despite the backlog, the company has its eyes on the market outside the u.s. bloomberg spoke with ed ludlow. we have to replace them -- it

is much more efficient. to do that come in means that we need to focus as a company on more than just the u.s. we are seeing it in europe. it had launched future versions of our future variance in our portfolio, especially with that factor. the whole business, the vehicle platform, and the architecture were set up from the beginning to support sales across the , in the united states, asia, and the rest of the world. clear biden has pretty stated policies when it comes to energy and electric vehicles. do you see a biden

administration putting the united states and perhaps the world on a quicker timeline for electrification? rj: you have what has happened how -- how are companies helping to drive that? then customers are being caused to make that switch. then you have the regular decide, and what can policy, taxes due to accelerate that? and we are seeing increasingly across the world many major markets, countries that have lots and lots of sales, driving targets toward 100% electrification for vehicle sales. we see that across europe, china. that is a very good thing for the world. to make thisry ship faster, and we are watching closely, and we hope that the u.s. will be a leader in helping

to create policy that makes it easier to make that switch. so the drive forward with -- tom: let me do a data check. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, to get this monday started. the vix, 23.36. dollar weaker, that bears careful watching. yen, 103.71. coming up the former prime minister of finland, alexander stubbs. stay with us. this is bloomberg. businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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vaccine development, our top priority is to assure affordable and equitable access to the vaccine and diagnostic tools for all's. -- for all. >> it will require financial and activeathways involvement of the private sector. acrosse stand together the globe, we can control and overcome the virus and its impact. it's worth redoubling our efforts to achieve this. reasonably expect before the end of the year a vaccine will be available. a harder battle needs to be fought. universal access. u.k. has committed to equitable global access for any vaccine. i would like to see the g20 nations collectively step up and support that effort. >> korea will work in partnership with the international community to put a

complete and to the covid-19 pandemic. we will marshal the forces to develop and distribute vaccine and treatment. tom: some of the voices on the pandemic. the markets may be adjusting to it as well. -- momentsm for his ago. right now, the former of finland and director of the school of transnational governance at the european institute. someone widely traveled. he has got a pretty -- a pedigree completely different from most. what is so wonderful is his focus is on the issue of the moment in europe. prime minister, i've been dying to speak to you of the fracture of hungary and poland. in takinged are they on the union?

thanks a lot, tom. i think they are quite isolated. the reason here is there is a clear link between what you are allowed to do and not allowed to do in the european union and the payments coming from the multi-annual framework. i think both poland and hungary are pretty much cornered out. tom: what are the tools the to push union has against their populist tone? them is communication. so the bottom line is if you do liberal democracy,

freedom of speech, rule of law, just to, you are not going to get european funds. francine: great library by the way. the library as a backdrop. andt an ice hockey rink there's a zamboni behind him. [laughter] of course it is, of the new zoom background. in hungary and poland bluff or is this much more about a clash of ideology? ofi think it's a combination two. so-called is you have

negotiations going on among the heads of state government. the other is how you look at home. any leader dealing with any negotiating situation have to take both into account. which -- basically what poland and hungary will have to do in this situation is to show a certain homege to their own back and say we fought till the bitter end. and then try to communicate it in the right way. that the basic situation. there is this wonderful twitter the talks about bookcase credibility. i do recommended. -- recommend it. francine: you are going to pass

with flying colors. when you look at some of the concerns for the european economy, we came out of the summer where everyone thought europe was good to do great. if you look at the pick the recovery fund, it will be much better than other parts of the world. is this now reversing? to a certain extent, yes. you're dealing with three issues. the future of our financial system, help from pandemics. i'm glad to see the statements from the g20 leaders a second ago. the third one is the future of globalization. there is a clear link between andonality, uv light, viruses. this has been well documented by nobel laureate, professor the m.i.t.. the basic story is in the northern hemisphere during the

fall and winter months when we lose a lot of the light, it gets colder. getsiral distribution quite exponential. and then as we start moving towards the spring, we get more light and then it will be reversed. live number one we learn more about the virus and how to deal with it and there's a vaccine in the pipeline, i think we will have weathered the storm and i do hope the worst will be over by next summer, at least in the northern hemisphere. without getting into international warfare, why did sweden's strategy on the virus fail? there's a wide perception it succeeded and then the prime minister -- and then prime minister, it didn't do that well. an original fail in vaccine pandemic experiment?

>> i am a humble political scientist, not a scientist per se. what theot understand original analysis of the swedish government experts were. but i do know one thing, that i think this just proves we really did not know or understand what the virus was going to mean and how it was going to react. and at the end of the day, we are all trying to save lives and i'm absolutely sure the swedish government and all the experts involved. tom: tell us your thoughts on herd immunity. it seems to be the tipping point, the strength of this virus. your thoughts on herd immunity and what it means finland? have a sufficient enough scientific understanding about herd immunity. i can only say what i do myself.

on saturday morning i flew from florence here to finland. 72 hours before a flu i took a test, negative. when i landed at 2:00, i took a test and got the results six hours later. negative. thestill self-isolating and total from 72 hours from when i landed i will take another test. if that's negative, i will go out whether there is herd immunity or not. talk to me about the u.s.. last week you interviewed in one of the first public appearances of hillary clinton. we are in a difficult transition. . -- transition period. will the hurt -- will that hurt the u.s. with its diplomatic allies? of the westost breathed a sigh of relief.

all of us were following the results as they were coming in. and right now i think most european leaders focused on the transition towards a biden administration. whatever president trump is doing at the moment through legal means is obviously viewed as something that the sitting president is doing. i think in the long run, we are not worried about american democracy. american institutions have a tendency to take care of themselves. in bush v. gore in 2000. i look upon the transition with a certain sadness. i think it could be done in a more dignified way, but i'm convinced on the 20th of january, joe biden will be the president of the united states, the vice president will be kamala harris. thanks so much for

joining us. former prime minister finland. mehas completely destroyed in the library game. i'm trying to hold my own. moved.noticed you [laughter] francine: i put shakespeare for you. my library backdrop at home folks is 64 volumes of nancy drew. francine do you know it nancy drew is? francine: of course i do. i grew up with nancy drew. tom: good. find american literature. firstne: to the bloomberg word news. >> another vaccine has showed promise in the fight against the coronavirus.

a majority of people from getting the disease. it had -- it stopped an average of 70% of patients from getting ill. forctiveness rose to 90% one or two dosing regime. a former national security advisor to joe biden is expected to be named secretary of state. -- he alsolington served is debbie sector's state during the obama administration. plus a former hillary clinton aid is meant -- said to be named biden's national security advisor. it from campaign official denounced a member of its post-election legal team. a statement from the campaign said powell is not a member of the trump legal team even though the president had said she was. secretary of state mike pompeo says the u.s. is withdrawing

from the open skies agreement because russia is not complying. it allows countries to purchase flights over each other's territory. the riskgned to reduce of war. bob menendez calls the move reckless. he urges the incoming administration to revert the decision. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. futures up. a nice lift to the market. weaker dollar this morning front and center. peso.ote again, mexican , the goldman sachs chief economist in the 10:00 hour. domesticabout the economy and the dynamics of the american consumer.

this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the president's legal team has been a national embarrassment. i voted for them twice but elections have consequences. ifcannot continue to act as something happened here that didn't happen. you have an obligation to present the evidence, the evidence has not been presented and you must conclude if tucker carlsen even concluded the other night that if you're unwilling to come forward, it must mean the evidence doesn't exist. to ourm: two out -- tom: international audience, this was the interview of the weekend that you really cut through the zeitgeist. the former governor of new

jersey saying to the gentleman ,f the same party mr. trump move on. a very elegant interview. now, parsing the headlines and the zeitgeist of chieftion, are bloomberg intelligence officer. what is the goal of the president upon day besides trying to count votes in milwaukee. >> i think the goal is to keep the narrative going that this election was fraudulent and he is not going to concede. there is no sign he will do anything other than that. despite all the losses in court. my: over a beverage of choice i did not read all 37 pages of the federal judge in pennsylvania, but scathing with the operative word. theare the legal advisors president can bounce off of

something like that decision? his legal and personal lawyers rudy giuliani and he shows no signs of changing. they did revise some of their legal team over the weekend. outrageous and in some cases ludicrous allegations, he's going to continue to press his case and there are some reports he will go directly to state legislatures to try and flip these results which will not succeed. some of president trump's staunchest allies, the senator from alaska or north dakota yesterday called for the transition to begin. who will ultimately convince the president, if anyone. i don't understand quite what the president is playing out? what's his endgame? >> his endgame is to stay

relevant. there are reports he's thinking about running for president again in 2024. astounding be because it would freeze the republican field. everybody is talking about a rising pressure. there's no pressure if he doesn't feel the pressure. i get the sense donald trump could not care less what republicans are telling him to do. how will he leave the white house? >> my speculation is that he will leave quietly. will go to florida or new jersey and just not return to the white house. donald trump will never really formally concede this race. tom: the great conversation at the dining room table last night as we got ready for thanksgiving , the great discussion was

getting to the supreme court. all this emotion of the president, focusing on fox tv and the rest, i'm going to the supreme court, the supreme court is going to save me. gorend i know what bush v. was and how this report dealt with it. will he get the same treatment? >> until he presents a constitutional question of national importance, he is never going to get before the supreme court to get the supreme court won't take the case because there is no case to take. symbolism ofthe these appointees. public service in democratic administrations. linda thomas greenfield, extremely qualified in foreign

affairs, the most important asset of the last 60 days. what does it signal to see these three people first out of the boxford president-elect? out-of-the-box- for president-elect? >> i think it shows he's going to pick an experienced and mature team to guide that process and it's going to take for time, but he is going it fullbore. how big are the legal troubles for donald trump? the new york and manhattan attorney general have fraud investigations involving his use of deductions to lower his taxes. i think there is significant threats, but they will probably .ake quite a bit of time

he doesn't seem to be particularly worried about it. i think he will be spending a lot of time defending himself once he leaves office. tom: we have to do this more often. thanks so much. way too early in the morning. 8:30 and is about ready for the first 10:00 a.m. meeting. way too early for washington and are next hour, talking to a businessman from virginia. moment at hand. in the markets, futures up 22. dow futures up to 14. where do i begin on a weaker dollar. stay with us. interesting market day. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

dropped to a has 2.5 year low.

in the u.s. has boosted appetite for risk assets. the dollar has fallen from its record high in march. blackstone group is doubling down on asia. the firm is seeking to raise $5 billion for its second private equity fund focused on the region. that more than doubled the size of their first asia buyout fund. the largest retailer music instruments and equipment has filed for bankruptcy guitar centers business while he figures out a restructuring plan for its debt. millions inls for new equity financing. to end the court process by the end of the year. billion dollars from global stocks by the end of the year according to jp morgan. the banks as large multi-asset investors may need to rotate money into bonds from stocks

after strong equity performance this month. that's her latest bloomberg business flash. -- that's your latest bloomberg business flash. francine: oil rising on optimism over covid-19 vaccine a couple hours ago we heard from astrazeneca. .bout 70% i know you wanted to talk about the pound. if you look at sterling remaining a victim of brexit headlines. options now suggesting a deal is likely done. tom: stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this morning, stocks left the dollar.

barrel.ude 46 dollars a hospitalizations in america doubled since labor day. cut casino capacity to 25%. a normal weekend. mr. trump plays golf. he desires to recount votes in wisconsin. the president-elect intends to appoint a long-term aids anthony blinkin. francine lacqua in london. a lot going on and we should take care with all the different butet news about politics we've got. to look at where we are in the medical space. news andlot of vaccine less about the hospili