if rates ind be november begin to go higher. >> equity volatility and uncertainty store means elevated. >> we are very much due for a tough time. >> we have a pretty supportive market. >> we are going to have a big year, 6% growth. >> the fed has been quite clear that they expect he federal government to hopefully provide more income support. >> even in supposedly the good places where there is reflation, federal banks are worried -- reflation, central banks are worried. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. it is monday morning, which means one thing, apparently. vaccine news. tom: that's the way it has been. we will get to the expert in a

moment. it is moving markets, but there's a lot of stuff percolating. the dollar strength really has my attention. i would go to the news released in the 5:00 hour of the reports that mr. netanyahu met with the crown prince of saudi arabia. these really haven't been vetted out by the israeli or saudi government yet, but i wonder if that helped a little bit as well. jonathan: i don't know about that, tom. news, dollaraccine weakness, can we touch about that a little bit more? the dollar taking out the lows on dxy. es,: we will see how bbdx do and the others. what i would note is the mexican peso. comes through, hits 20 this morning. that is just one little snapshot

of the complexity of e.m. pairs doing well. dm,than: from e.m. to everything stronger against the u.s. dollar. yields up a couple of basis points. lisa, good morning to you. supply coming through the week. lisa: we will be getting $190 billion of debt, five-year notes. i don't know if you did this reading over the weekend about the inflation outlook in the near term and how there's a real divergence of views on whether we will overshoot with the fed target of 2%, or under shoot. morgan stanley seeing a pretty significant overshoot. looking for that in the bond market today. also today, michigan and pennsylvania are likely to certify the election results. the election has moved on if you look at markets, and yet there still is this tension. at what point will the republican pressure come to enough of a head to get president trump to concede, or

at least get the transition crew to give information to the biden adminstration? also today, the white house may issue a list of 80 nine companies denied access to u.s. tech imports. chinese companies. how much is the trump i adminstration going to try to , and how much will this come look at the efforts to try to get out some sort of track to recover on the other side? jonathan: how much daylight will there be between the two administrations when it comes to china? it is a really good point. we will touch on the perspectives changes in the cabinet coming up in the next four years. we might get details on that in the next 24 hours. i want to touch on the markets quickly. there's a cyclical tilt again to this market. europe with a lift, small caps with a lift. we got used to this now. up 18 on the s&p.

euro-dollar, this move has been absent. euro-dollar reclaiming a $1.19 handle. in an index heavily weighted to the single currency, taking out the lows of early september. we head north by two basis points to 0.8488%. there's the move in the crude market. i think we've got the post-covid stock highs in the crude market on wti and brent. cents -- $45.49. without question with e.m. strength, bbdxy breaks out to new dollar weakness. jonathan: multiyear lows. we've got to start the conversation this moaning where we started every single monday the previous two weeks. tom: everyday. jonathan: do it with sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence. sam gets to join us when we get good news.

this morning we heard from astrazeneca. i have to say, this one was harder to read them what we heard from moderna and pfizer. when you get two different, three different efficacy numbers thrown out there, can you walk us through what you are focused on and what we should be focused on? sam: good morning, and yes, it is good news. not as good as what we've had, but still good news. i would have to say that it always worries me a little bit when data, you start getting these subgroups thrown out in the press release. to me, i am going to read this as a 70% efficacy vaccine until i see the details of the group that had the 90% in the 62%. you can't ignore the 62%. we just have to understand why there was a difference. there isn't enough information there for me to figure that out, so we are going to run with 70%, but that is still not bad.

this is what we were looking for when we first got these vaccines. tom: deutsche bank moments ago put out a chart of herd immunity, the different nations as they try to get to this important concept, where maybe the virus and the pandemic ebbs away. what does the fazeli herd immunity chart look like? how distant is it? sam: i've tried to draw that chart many times, and every time i do it, i find far too many variables. tom: totally agree. sam: the toughest one is how many people actually go lineup and take the vaccine. i hope that, knowing that we are always far too optimistic, let's say the second half. jonathan: sam, short and sweet. great to catch up, sir. hope we can do this monday with even more good news. want to start the market

conversation with amy wu silverman, rbc capital markets equity derivatives strategist. a word that gets thrown around a lot in conversations on wall street is the word complacency. in your world, do you see signs of the c-word? [laughter] amy: a little bit, yes. we have heard this narrative a lot now, that the market is just going to look through how bad the covid rates are. vesely would get good news from the vaccines, but that only justifies that camp. for me as a derivatives person, i say what is the second-order effect that is happening with derivatives? our people hedging under the hood? are they nervous? the short answer is no. you don't see it priced into the upcoming dates we have for election confirmation. you don't see it in hedging demand. the options market also believes we are going to look through this into next year. lisa: and while on the technical

front, there was a note out over the weekend from your colleague of jp morgan predicting that there will be in hundred $60 billion of selling of equities as the number of pensions and big investors rotate into that 60/40 portfolio. do you think that is a possible tension heading into year end? amy: it is interesting you bring that up. tension rebalancing is a sort of irregular occurrence. while that is something that is happening, one thing that we are also tracking is what is .appening in the position data this group of investors, real money, as well as pensions at the start of the pandemic was and wely under invested, have seen this come into this market, and what are they doing? they are actually buying value and selling tech. the other part of this is this

is sort of the opposite of what we have seen from the big retail that has driven a lot of the exuberance in tech. i think that there is still a lot of money on the sidelines that will come into value, but at the same time, we haven't seen retail setups awaited for tech. i wonder if that could still provide a headwind as well. tom: this is too sophisticated for early monday morning. this is a really smart conversation, and important, folks. amy, this comes in waves. , a bunch oftion physics talk for it comes in waves. what will you try to observe when tech does a little better, value cyclical eases off? what will you try to look for to see which way it cuts into the future? last class was years ago.

tom: mine was this weekend. continue. [laughter] amy: there you go. there are a couple of things we look for in terms of stats from options. skew.at is really key is essentially the imbalance that we see between the put aside versus the call side. the reason this matters so much is this was one of the primary drivers we saw that really kept tech going, in particular in august. the options market itself was actually driving the market, but also for sentimental reasons. if we see this starting to company recovery name, which we haven't really yet, that is a very strong line that you are going to get an even stronger inflection to this value side. keenehe only skew in the house is should we wet brine or dry brine the turkey.

moneymaking, big decisions, do they get in the way of a rational reassessment year? amy: those trades which have been in the market have obviously, a lot of them have been rolled off, and others have not come in the money. there's always a possibility for getting reloaded because that is a very large look money. avenue no idea, obviously, if that is going to happen specifically for softbank come up with the other strong driver of that is retail, possibly more than softbank, although softbank is the one to gets written up the most. if that happens, you will start to see that skew go negative the way it goes for something like tesla. lisa: just to tie this all together, given all of these crosscurrents you are talking about, it seems like there isn't necessarily going to be the big pullback that some people who have come on this show are predicting, due to the fact that we are seeing a surge in virus

cases. do you think that is accurate? that given all of the uncertainty, given the fact that you are not seeing a big short position or anything in the derivatives market that would suggest turmoil, it is just going to be buy? amy: this is a question i thing about a lot. i think one thing to say is if there is a very sharp inflection as we have seen between value and tech, the issue is this is all going on under the hood. your overall indexing levels may remain flat, even if you have very strong recovery names going up. i look back to 2016. something very similar happen when trump became president. you saw a lot of under the hood movement with financial, industrial, and tech. the overall index basically kind of wafted along. jonathan: amy, great to catch up with you. amy wu silverman of rbc capital

markets, thank you. this morning, more promising news from astrazeneca that gives this market a little bit more of a lift. up 16 points on the s&p 500. . we advanced 0.5%. tom: no question about that. it is a beautiful world, jon. renminbi, 6.56, holds on as well. do you see what i am wearing today? jonathan: what are you wearing? tom: for bloomberg radio, they can tell -- lisa: it is a bowtie. tom: no, i am out in blue, in tatts -- in tots blue. tottenham blue. jonathan: were you happy with the result? tom: i thought it was just wonderful. i thought the other team didn't kick the ball from far out enough. they would have done better if they kick the ball farther out. jonathan: you should write a column on a monday. [laughter] i would read that. tom: nbc sports is all over me. lisa: kick the ball harder. jonathan: i am sure the team at

nbc sports are kicking in this morning, quaking in their boots. [laughter] tom: i am going to be on the zoom thing with vet bill. jonathan: coming up on this , be my, vincent reinhart melon chief economist. coming up shortly, right here on "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: that the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. another promising develop and in the fight to end the coronavirus pandemic. a vaccine developed by the university of oxford and astrazeneca prevented a majority of people in a trial from getting the disease. it stopped in average of 70% from getting ill. that is below the high bar set by pfizer and moderna. joe biden plans to name a longtime advisor anthony lincoln

as secretary -- anthony blinken as secretary of state. he was deputy secretary of state. a former secretary clinton eight is likely to be named national security advisor. the trump i adminstration will tech imports from 87 chinese companies, a move that could escalate tensions as the biden adminstration prepares to. . take over. foxconn will finally stop mass plant -- willa finally start mass production at a plant championed by president trump. the facility was unveiled too much fanfare in 2018, but has encountered delays several times after local officials cut subsidies. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> unemployment insurance runs out for many people at the end of the year, before joe biden takes office. the either should moratorium runs out at the end of the year, before -- the eviction moratorium runs out at the end of the year, before joe biden takes office. they have to be fixed under the trump presidency with the congressional lineup we have right now. jonathan: ron klain there, president-elect biden's chief of staff. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. here's the monday morning price action for you. in the equity market, a lift. small caps outperform.

europe doing nicely. the s&p up another 17 bones. we added 0.5%. in the bond market, yields higher by two or three basis points. lisa running through some of the treasury supply you can expect through the day and the week. euro-dollar briefly reclaiming a $1.19 handle. we take out the lows of the year on the dollar index. theou point out, the bbdxy, more broadly weighted dollar index which tilts away from the euro a little more and more towards the likes of offshore chinese currency, the mexican peso as well, that has hit a multiyear low. the dollar big we are looking for is starting to flush through this market -- the dollar peak we are looking for is starting to flush through this market. tom: no to the turkish lira goes the other way this day, finally some movement of of the big erdogan shift we saw last week. on the calendar forward of this thanksgiving week, we speak with

kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. we saw a 37 page ruling by a federal judge in pennsylvania. there is no question the great desire of this president of drama, "i am going to the supreme court." does donald going to the spring court? kevin: right now -- to the supreme court? kevin: right now there's litter more than words spoken. you've got rudy giuliani distancing himself and saying that sidney powell is not connected to the president's legal team. there doesn't seem, based upon conversations i've had, to be a coherent legal strategy in terms of getting the results overturned. meanwhile, republicans coming out one by one and urging the president to start transition briefings. senator pat toomey, lisa murkowski, and the list goes on. tom: i am going to be very direct here.

in wisconsin, it seems like a ballot choice of looking at milwaukee, which is very democratic and very black, and looking at madison, which is very badger and very to the left of elizabeth warren. what is the president thinking going after wisconsin this late in the game? kevin: it is unclear. tom: i agree. kevin: you mentioned wisconsin, and you look at pennsylvania, just across the bridge to new jersey, where chris christie has called this a "national embarrassment." it is just high-profile republicans who are now urging there to be some type of transition briefings pertaining to national security and the coronavirus to start taking place. jonathan: a lot of people do. this government is already planning the future cabinet, so let's talk about president-elect joe biden's future cabinet. what are you hearing at the moment? forn: tony blinken

secretary of state. when i spoke with tony blinken several months ago, i asked him about how he would connect u.s. and china relations. what he told me is that he would try to restore u.s. multilateralism in the sense of getting western allies on board in europe to be able to speak from the same geopolitical playbook in pressuring china to encourage good behavior beyond the state department. if you look beyond the names we are hearing for treasury, lael brainard is what i have been hearing over the past few weeks. lisa: tony blinken is a centrist. so far, the people tapped i the biden camp seem to lean center. how much pushback is there from the democratic progressive wing? kevin: based upon the conversations i've had for the past couple of weeks, they are less likely to pressure state

department choices than they are for labor secretary or for their issei treasury secretary, or commerce. there is going to be a clear opportunity for progressives to try to make sure that they have some impact not just on those agencies that i listed, but also maybe even energy, and i think that is where the fight is going to play out. but if you look at some of the campaign statements, all of them spoke critically of china. tony blinken has a history of not just aggressive rhetoric, but really trying to hold china accountable, and forming a broader coalition to do so. lisa: there's a lot of focus on mitch mcconnell and his role here. he is one of the republicans who has not come out and said president trump should just concede, begin the transition. he also is one of the main obstacles to president-elect biden getting through any kind

of infrastructure plan, or that stopgap measure. he's one of the big architects of a potential fiscal support bill in the near term. what is his game plan? what is his goal right now? kevin: that right there i think is the key point here because in terms of a centrist check on a biden adminstration, it runs through senate majority leader mitch mcconnell. in the immediate short term, the december 11 deadline to keep the government funded, to provide some continuing resolution, and honestly, i think if you look beyond the headlines of what you saw secretary mnuchin do in trying to pressure the fed to give back some of their money with some of the lending acilities, i think there is broader conversation happening behind the scenes, based upon that sayave talked to they feel leader mccall -- leader mcconnell is making sure the money goes to the right places that has already been allocated and passed by

congress. tom: there is a scene in the wonderful peter pan movie with dustin hoffman where he says "bad form." it seems like everybody in the washington zeitgeist is looking for this president in his golf court and saying, bad form. ?ho's going to advise this guy kevin: i would need some pixie dust to try to predict how the next couple of weeks are going to go. said, based as i've upon my reporting, i think that president trump is trying to play the long game and figure out what his long-term strategy is in terms of being a kingmaker for the republican party in 2022 and 2024. jonathan: kevin, great to catch up, as always. the prospect of janet yellen going from the fed to the treasury, what do we think about that? tom: good question.

i put a little bit of thought into it, and i will say this with great force. in my conversation with her a couple of weeks ago at brookings institution, she was razor-sharp. if she wasn't, i'd say so. she was totally on her game. jonathan: oh i don't think that is in question. undoubtedly qualified for this role. it is the optics of it, from fed to treasury, hand-in-hand going forward, working together. lisa: especially given the rift right now between the treasury department and the federal reserve, there is a question, and this is going to be an increasing one, of the politicization of the federal reserve if janet yellen is tapped for the treasury secretary. there is no question she is qualified. but very much to your point, how much does this raise even more of the specter of either a democratic or a republican federal reserve chair, and what does that do in terms of their power or lack thereof, moving forward unilaterally or independently?

jonathan: everyone keeps saying they need to work closer together, so maybe this is it. chair of theformer fed. tom: i thing it speaks to the lack of qualified people out there from the business community. is a banker to be treasury? we don't do that anymore. jonathan: they are hardly scraping the barrel going for janet yellen? secretary's dimon or think? i think there is a difference in what we perceive a treasury secretary to be versus the old days. jonathan: that i would agree with. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up, with dollar weakness permeating through the fx market this morning, alan ruskin of deutsche bank will be joining us. they are up there. they are title contenders, tom. [laughter]

that will go in tom's column next monday morning. you will find that on bloomberg opinion after a weekend of football games again in the premier. the things that matter, tom on the permit ship. ship. businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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♪ jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." you've seen this twice before, to make -- you seen this twice before, then lasts ago, monday, vaccine news. nasdaq futures up by just 0.4%. the s&p marching on, up by another 0.6%. the story hasn't changed. last week was just the story of downside surprises on the data. retail sales disappointing. jobless claims disappointing to the upside, the wrong kind of upside surprise on jobless claims. in the bond market, kept a lid on things for you. last week, yields were up by about seven points on the tenure. tens at 86 basis

points. want to finish on the fx market, the more compelling story for me over the last several weeks. , euro-dollar out to $1.19, up 0.4%. 1.34 handle.hes a the dxy finally taking out the lows of september. the bbdxy, the bloomberg dollar index, with a little bit of weight away from the euro and towards the peso, towards the offshore renminbi. that is important for the ecb. euro-dollar at $1.19. might be unhappy with the currency strengths, but the renminbi might be the key. tom: the perfect intimate to speak to right now in our global

wall street brief of the day, alan ruskin with deutsche bank, with decades of experience of synthesizing together all of these trends. you lead with the idea that forward, a major payer will be dollar-renminbi, looking for stronger yuan, and the idea that replacenger yuan will the japanese yen. how does that happen? i think the chinese economy is substantially larger than japan's, and that gap is only going to get wider over time. real economy influence is certainly increasing. obviously at the same time, the areorities in china encouraging the reserve status to increase over time. the pull factor in terms of official flows is going to increase as well.

economy andthe real encouragement we are going to see on the authority basis is just going to help the chinese currency in the pull effect in the region. tom: there's a parlor game to win strong euro hurts germany, strong euro hurts finland, or strong in hurts tokyo -- a strong yen hurts tokyo. at what level does a strong renminbi hurt beijing? think we forget, memory serves me right, the 10 year average is roughly around 6.50 on dollar-china. i think we shouldn't get too caught up with what's happened over the last six months or so, given the appreciation. we are actually back in a zone that is very well-traveled, so we shouldn't be at points of extreme sensitivity.

to if we saw dollar china go 6.25 or those sort of levels, i think there would be more concern on the part of chinese authorities. jonathan: important to look at the currency pairs elsewhere. yen.china, china-japanese what we have seen is that japanese strength against the euro anymore pronounced way. do you think that makes the ecb less sensitive to what is happening on euro-dollar as we approach $1.19 and maybe go through $1.20? alan: everybody, if they look at their own currencies and say yes, we are stronger against the dollar than most other currencies that are also stronger against the dollar, not much has changed between the euro and other crosses, then you get reduced sensitivity from the currency side and people recognize that this is a dollar story.

this is not a china yuan story or a euro-dollar story. up until now it has been a mix of a dollar story and a chinese yuan story, very little in the way of being a euro story. it has been stuck in the mud. jonathan: we typically ask a whether we would need a weaker dollar and whether the world needs a weaker dollar. do you think the world needs a stronger chinese currency? imbalances have tended to grow over time. the current account surplus in china is substantial in an less as aasis, percentage of chinese gdp, so i think there are potential distortions on that side. i would say let the market do its thing. will not build in a substantial way. just sonestly, i was compelled by this argument that there used to be this world order where everyone was trying

to depreciate their currency, and all of a sudden there is less impetus on that because there's a question of getting your money into the economy is better. at one point -- at what point does strength of the currency matter, given the fact that chinese officials have been willing to step in and that internationally, there has been such a big driver of flows into the nation? alan: i think what is interesting if you look at currencies generally end on a medium-term basis, the evaluations you are seeing are not that extreme. 5% ofllar is within about fair value, give or take, depending on different metrics. that is not extreme by any measure. the same can be said for most of the other currencies as well. i would say the yuan, euro, yes the dollar looks on the rich

side, the euro looks a little cheap, the chinese yuan looks a little on the expensive side as well. but in terms of the actual absolutes, these are not huge over shoots or under shoots. i think for that reason, it is actually going to be relatively comfortable for the authorities to deal with at this point in time. it could get a lot messier than this. , in the 1990's, but these are relatively historic stances for the authorities to do with. lisa: the short position on the dollar is increasing, and you can see the complacency in the markets around this consensus call seems to be growing. do you see the potential for a short squeeze, or for some information to come out about the vaccine being delayed that could potentially lead to a reversal that could upend a lot of these traits? alan: positioning i think is

also quite modest in the grand scheme of things. you highlight the vaccine story, which i think is pertinent. it is going to be critical for the next year or two, crucial for markets, and probably the dominant thing on an ongoing basis. some think it is already priced in, but i thing that is way too early. i think if you saw a reversal in those trades, you could get some sort of short squeeze. that is always possible into year-end, but i would tend to emphasize that the vaccine trade is long the cyclicals in g10, etc. it is still long em. it plays to the long aided trade. i think it is still on a medium-term basis playing towards the short dollar trade rather than focusing too much on the squeeze potential. jonathan: classic fx lingo there. ellen ruskin, deutsche bank

chief international strategist -- alan ruskin, deutsche bank chief international strategist. now, ifat the situation using about policy areas, you've got to think about where they are going to come from. i think the biggest risk right now for a policy error comes from the fiscal side. we are about to see one of the biggest super spreader events of 2020 is the great thanksgiving migration over the coming week. the numbers that come out the other side of that to some degree will dictate what the policies look like going into year-end as we start to roll out this vaccine. if you start to see people locked down again across the united states, governors, mayors, and you don't see those incomes, do you think that is the button that gets pushed that finally gets people to wake up and think, you know what, i am pretty worried about what could happen in the near term? tom: there's a number of threads here that are really important, but just to pull out the zeitgeist over the weekend, this is a biden adminstration not

planning for recession, but they are really thinking about if they get a q1 slowdown that rolls into q2, and there's not a gloom there, but just an awareness about things slowing down quickly. that is what i would watch more than anything, that tension between pelosi, biden, and as they look over georgia, perhaps in senator mcconnell of kentucky. jonathan: we are seeing that in the data. retail sales claims are sent to get worse from here. atng into q1, mr. feroli j.p. morgan is looking for that weakness to kick off 2021. lisa: there seems to be this belief that there will be a temporary decline, and it could be a steeper decline, but once we get the vaccine, everything will be fine. again, it goes to the scarring question. especially if you don't get financial aid from the federal government to states, you start to see those layoffs, how much

does that change people's appetite to buy? there have been some reports about retail sales going forward into the holiday season, about the expectation it could be a lot softer than people expect, and how that could be a catalyst. jonathan: another word i keep hearing, normal. we get back to normal. you have any idea what normal looks like after we have rolled out a vaccine? does it look like things pre-covid, or are we bringing the future forward 5, 10 years? on, andhael spence was he made clear a definition of pre-more more -- of pre-normal just isn't there. we are not going to get back to that normal. it is a raging debate. jonathan: we got to talk about this vaccine as well from astrazeneca/oxford. the vaccine found to be highly effective in tackling covid-19. more positive news with a huge cyclical tilt in this equity market. up next on this program, dr.

deborah fuller, university of washington school of medicine. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. another vaccine has shown promise against the coronavirus. the shot developed by the university of oxford and astrazeneca prevented an average of 70% of participants from falling ill. that is less than the vaccines from pfizer and moderna. however, effectiveness rose to 90% for one of two dosing racing -- one of two dosing regimes. a formal national security advisor to joe biden is expect it to be named secretary of state. the announcement about anthony blinken is likely tomorrow. he served as deputy secretary of state during the obama administration. plus, former hillary clinton aid jake sullivan is likely to be

named bidens national security advisor. hasident trump's campaign disavowed a number of its postelection legal team. sidney powell has pushed some of the more extreme conspiracy theories around the boat. a statement from the campaign says they are not a member of the illegal team, even though president trump said that she was. secretary of state mike pompeo says the u.s. has withdrawn from the open skies agreement because russia isn't compliant. the treaty allows countries to flights over each other's territory. democratic senator bob menendez called the move reckless. -- heed the incoming urged the incoming biden adminstration to reverse the decision. all of the destinations require testing. passengers will have the option test thatmail-in

meets local requirements. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> we are in a very difficult situation at all levels, so i think, i would hope that the people who are pushing back on the recommendations, the mitigation measures, just look

at the numbers. look at the facts. they are staring us right in the face. we are not talking about shutting down the country and looking down completely. onathan: dr. fauci there, cbs over the weekend. the numbers are not looking good going into the thanksgiving holiday. from london and new york this morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. radio, bloomberg tv and here is the price action this monday morning. you have seen this monday after monday. more positive vaccine news is what we want to wake up to two kick off a new trading week. $1.19.llar reclaiming some euro strength, really about dollar weakness. euro-dollar up and up, by 0.4%. in the fx market, that is your story. in the equity market, up 23 on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.6% and add a little bit more weight to the cyclical story. the small caps outperform big

tech and the nasdaq this morning. in the treasury market we have a lift in treasury yields by about three basis points to 0.8586%, about 11 basis points off the highs we hit two wednesdays ago on the 10 year maturity. "om: all of team "surveillance say punditry is out and experts are in. after deborah fuller is not just of the washington university school of microbiology, but is also active in the development of vaccines, and we are honored that dr. fuller could nest this morning. we have questions about vaccines and all of that. i want to go to my childhood, which was the dreaded booster shot. is a booster shot now the same as it was in 1960, or is a booster shot now so efficacious and the technology so much better that it is not a big deal? dr. fuller: a booster shot in

vaccines, particularly the covid-19 vaccines we are seeing right now, is absolutely essential to increase and bring the immunity to individuals that get the vaccine up to high enough levels to protect against the infection. booster shots can be a drag in the sense that you might ,xperience increased reactive and other words a bit more soreness in your arm, but that tells you it is working, when you get that feeling almost like you are getting an infection initially. that tells you that your immune system is mounting a really good response to the vaccine, and you will likely be protected against infection. lisa: tom keene is talking about booster shots in light of the astrazeneca news that came out this morning, more confusing than what we got out of pfizer and moderna in terms of efficacy.

,ome statistics saying 70% something 90%, when you have an initial dose followed by a second dose. how significant is the rollout effort when you have to have two shots to make it effective, in terms of tracking, distribution, and how long it takes to get immunity? dr. fuller: that is a really important question. if people have to receive a second dose, often compliance in coming back for the second dose can go down, especially if they experienced reaction with the first dove. are of these companies looking at immunity after the first dose, the levels are just not high enough to be confident is going to provide the level of efficacy that is needed. on the other hand, after the efficacyse, 90% plus

is as good as a vaccine is really going to get, and that is what we are going to need ultimately to shut down this pandemic. jonathan: let's talk about the logistics. how many vaccines, vaccinations do you think we could rollout in america over the next three months? pfizer,er: moderna and as a result of their promising , willnow astrazeneca likely be assigned early use authorization in early december. they should have enough safety data by then to be able to make the application. that of course will only initially be available in a limited number, for high risk groups, for your first responders and medical personnel . the majority of us really won't see these vaccines until spring, and some of the challenges between then and now will be producing the efficient number of doses, billions of billions.

thestimate 50% to 60% of population will ultimately need to be vaccinated to shut down the pandemic. we really need multiple vaccines, not just one. it is not one silver bullet to shut this down. the fact that we are still looking at all of the faxing -- all of these vaccines at 90% equity is really promising. tom: 802 chart is out on herd immunity -- a deutsche bank chart is out on herd immunity. do you trust the mass and the forecasting of herd immunity, or are we making it up as we go? dr. fuller: that math is really elegant stuff, and it is really based on some important measurements. so we can trust the math. what we don't know, some of the things we don't know going into this, are the changes in the infection rates that could occur

between now and then. predictions are based on what we know now, and as we have seen, we have seen a huge surge in cases as the weather cools, and exceeded the number of cases that was initially projected at this time for reasons like, for example, been a bit -- for example, and mike fatigue -- for example, pandemic fatigue, that we don't know. jonathan: thank you. base case, these are the numbers people throw around, their educated guesses. we need to get the population, 70% of the population vaccinated, and the bulk aren't going to the vaccinations until when, march, going into q2? those of the kind of numbers we are playing with right now. obviously those can move. they are just the numbers we are playing a with at the moment. tom: i go to the verlyn's -- to

irulency of the actual virus. amateurs underplay that. i will lean on the pros on this vaccine. jonathan: for the professionals in our world, market participants, i think the big question is how much can you deemphasize the short-term risk. jonathan golub of credit suisse was talking about this with us last week. how much can you do this if this could go on through q1 into q2 before that faxing rollout really starts to make an impact on the kind of restrictions you can have in this economy, or rather the restrictions he won't need? tom: we are stuck out towards the end of the bridge, that cliche we knew in march, april, and may of this year. how far is that bridge out? .e have no clue jonathan: coming up, david rosenberg, chief economist and

strategist at rosenberg. looking forward to that. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the nightmare scenario would be if the unemployment rate begins to go higher. >> equity volatility and uncertainty remains elevated. >> in the very short-term term, we are very much due for a rough time. >> if we take a long-term perspective, we have a pretty supportive market. >> we are going to have a big year, 6% growth. >> the fed has been quite clear they expect the federal government to hopefully provide more income support. >> they really want congress to do with job, and that is not happening -- to do its job, and that is not happening. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz.