aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. caroline: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. the rotation traits continued. s&p 500 index closing up 0.5%. it was really all about the reciprocal. small caps out of favor. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" starting tovestors president-elect joe

biden said to nominate former fed chair it -- chair janet yellen as treasury secretary plus, another round of positive news for a possible covid vaccine. as we head to the end of the year, i don't even know if the market hates uncertainty anymore. terrible is such a cliche. life is nothing but constant uncertainty. 2020 one of the worst years of our life, one of the best years for the market. caroline: people still kind of one a haven. joe: obviously, stocks continue to do well generally. betsen see some reflation emerging in the market. look at the 10 year yield. it is just not going anywhere. earlier inome point

the summer. higher a few weeks ago. with all kind of things breaking treasuryrtainty, a chief, the desire to hold safe haven assets. aroline: maybe we will get closure in the gap. escape sloshing around. but this fallout between the fed and treasury made us question that relationship and also any sort of deal being broken in terms of fiscal policy for that is why in the white line, we do see fiscal uncertainty remaining elevated i wonder now with janet yellen if that uncertainty will start to fall back down again joe: i want to bring in dan greenhouse, chief economist and strategist. thank you so much for joining us. let's start with the big news of

the day. biden planning to nominate janet yellen to treasury. a very familiar face. what does that do for markets to quantity inknown that position. >> i don't know what the general consensus things right now. vesely, this just happened. , the federal reserve, translating over to treasury. , to controlretary the narrative the way that she to thech more subject political whims of washington. for all of her accomplishments, i don't know that we know how well she can navigate these political waters. caroline: political waters are

particularly choppy when it comes to anymore fiscal spending. will that be the first thing on her agenda if we don't manage to get anything done by the end of the year? dan: i think there is no doubt that the biden administration on covid relief packages. the 24th quarter in the first quarter, whatever age is going to be, whether it is $500 billion or a trillion dollars. i think that raises some downside risk for growth, certainly the fourth quarter and probably the first quarter as well. i think the issue for markets is not the next week or month. looking at 12, 16 months. i think on that side of things, joe: -- is is good quite good. joe: the longer term looks

decent. we expect to have positive role out of a vaccine next year. in the meantime, lots of uncertainty on the fiscal front and the virus continuing to get worse as we head into the winter. is there anything that would cause that to be a negative for the market or is it supremely capable of looking into everything over the next 3-6 months. weresurely, if there greater lockdowns and worse growth prospects, and estimates work effective as a result, that would be in the near term headwind. assets plan, risk discounts negative. looking out 12, 18 months, on this front, probably way more polish and a sense that if you told me that by the summer or the fall there is a vaccine right up -- readily available on the corner, i fail to understand

why more or less society does or return to something close if not exactly similar to the lifestyle. we will use doc you sign more but if anyone can get a vaccine on a moments notice, i don't see why life as we know it should be will much worse in the fall of 2021? caroline: michigan certifies election results showing a biden victory. so the drip that is these recounts and uncertainty. michigan is a sign that election results did show a biden victory. perhaps be should pricing in a bounceback. v, w?s it a u, surely, there will be some scarring. we know that the pain prior to

this particular slowdown has been accentuated when it comes to perhaps some of the trends going forward. more realistically, dependent on robotics and digital. >> those are all legitimate conversations to have in terms of one asset allocation. a lot of that stuff is incredibly relevant in a larger atse, if we are looking casinos, at cruise lines, and movie theaters or airlines or any of the adversely affected industries, for us, the more tangential, immediate catalyst if you will will be some more additional federal loan programs for the vaccine. -- loan programs, or the vaccine.

returning to norms, as different as those norms might be. certainly, we all have to deal with some issues, and the like, i don't think as a manager it is our job to focus on that. question,gets to the in the short term with vaccine optimism we had seen whether it is returned to normal trades, airline, cruise liners getting better. then the question is, what happens when we returned to the normal? justrecrisis normal was tech doing really well and everything else kind of so-so. after we get to something resembling normal, do we just go back to the kind of crisis low inflation, yield grinding lower, tech outperforming?

or is there something that could meaningfully make the rotation sustained? dan: the argument i put forth, in this case, it is the interest rate. while i think the markets would higher over the next couple of months. i think with the expectation that nominal and real interest ,ates should drift higher things are probably going to see an extended version of what we have already seen. they rotation for outperformance on the part of some of the cyclical areas. at the end of the day, if you are looking at the tech plus are now turning, out managing, and as a result, they are getting assigned a premium

valuation to the rest of the market. higher interest rates and higher real rates, earnings and revenues well into the double digits. you are going to stay an attractive investment vehicle for a lot of the market. caroline: also the japanese stocks for example. from your perspective, does the u.s. remained the choice outside of covid or other areas? -- letmittedly, i don't me dodge the question by saying that i understand the arguments that emerging markets do quite know things that we all considerably, a lower dollar and the like. when you look at the market, the

u.s. gets a premium valuation because we have a disproportionate share of our market taken up by tech. if tech will get a better valuation, the market as a whole can get it. it continues to outperform and get that premium valuation then by definition, the market will do better because of the composition issues we all discussed over the last quarter. joe: our thanks to dan greenhouse from solace alternative capital management. coming up, the latest data showing activity powering ahead at the fastest pace since 2018. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: so, markets eight uncertainty apparently. but, now we are focusing on perhaps a little glimpse of the clarity we are having. week,his is a shortened thanksgiving is here. i don't know how many people will be out there traveling or driving but are we getting any good signs? joe: it depends what you mean by good. good on the economic front may not be good on the virus oppression front. there is a chart, a tsa travel alert as a percentage of last year at the same time. we are up to 45%.

we have seen a thanksgiving related spike and travel even though all the experts say you should not do that. relative to where we were last year, we remain at extremely depressed levels. caroline: so we are not going to get much upside from travel. in terms of the economic sure. economic picture. today, all things ambiguous. joining us with more insight, bloomberg news economy reporter. thank you for joining us. we got some good news today. market showi's from the corporate sector and manufacturing services look like they have some pretty decent momentum. >> some very welcome good news, which is that both servicing and

manufacturing, these indexes were of the most since 2015 with manufacturing. since 2015.ices this index is very important. on the ground look in terms of what they are doing in their economy, what they are ordering. even in july, we were getting this reading in the red. even back in july, we were getting those kinds of really negative figures. this is a positive sign. there are a couple of reasons for that. data, thending pandemic has not really stopped spending. there was a dip initially, then it picked back up. then, it exceeded levels pre-pandemic.

and joblessrobust benefits are robust. maybe not the best for infection rates but when we are talking about economic growth, people are out there spending that is helping factories. theinteresting component on jobs side is that these companies then start to hire again. caroline: i always look across, they seem ahead of the u.s. in terms of the waves of the covid crisis. when you look at manufacturing numbers, some resilience especially from germany. ugly, ugly. just worry that maybe if we post-thanksgiving, again,le start to travel

this just adds to the numbers. >> this is kind of the danger of , differentu.s. data times. thelready have data from census bureau, they track companies to basically early november, that pickup in infection rates we started to see in early november. up-to-datehat the , therer the government are also kind of wall street economists, using sources like pay data showing that reversal happening as well. fewer people logging into work, fewer people hired. this is again reflecting -- we

were talking about letters earlier. maybe we are getting into that w shape now with a little bit of a k. people are getting back to work, infections arising, and it is starting again. caroline: two steps forward, one step back. great analysis. we will be sticking with the economy. ahead, then, treasury pig. we discussed. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: today, we are focused on the small pieces of certainty returning to the u.s. political and economic front. today, we got another hand. president-elect joe biden going to name former fed chair janet yellen is the next treasury

secretary. for me, glass shattering once again. first female at the fed, first female at the treasury to helm it. she may once again unite the decision-making forces of the federal reserve and treasury. joe: timing coming just a week after mnuchin pulling the plug. as you mentioned, extraordinary career. if confirmed, will basically have a track record. federal reserve bank of san francisco. an extraordinary run for janet yellen. once again, we get her fashion flavor back in vogue. it is really about how she will steer. market reaction, the market reacted to the headline and were pleased. joe: she presided over a boom,

she is a known quantity. pick,re on the yellen josh wingrove. the policy that emerged over this choice over the last couple of days. what does the ultimate choice ,hat biden would land on yellen what does that represent in the democratic party? >> i think he has found someone that sort of both halves of the party will accept. there are statements out from elizabeth warren orbit type folks congratulating biden on the pick has basically the next best thing to warrant herself. the word boring jumps to mind a little bit. the vix over the course of the day, people who looked like they would be likely to be confirmed

even if the senate had a republican majority that seemed to be the case despite those runoffs in georgia. hard to imagine susan collins voting against janet yellen. he is also picking people in national security roles, emphasizing the lack of a transition. it has been national security, the pandemic, and the vaccine rollout, having biden pointed, we really have to start the transition. biden is perhaps saying, enough with america first only. let's start making diplomacy work again. josh: it does seem like a bit of a pendulum swing back to the obama era. blinken,k in -- tony secretary of state, and the national security advisor, both

advisors to joe biden. we will see him sort of reengage. to what extent, i think it is a little uncertain. we don't know if he has a fully fleshed out policy in the mideast. he talked about joining the wto. we don't know what he wants to do to reform. it is a little bit of an open question right now. right now, he is sticking with known qualities that he is personally familiar with and people that the credit figures are familiar with. caroline: i am quite excited about a bit of boring. josh wingrove, we love urinalysis. are you up for -- we love your analysis. are you up for some boring, joe? joe: not great for our business.

but from a national psyche standpoint, maybe some boring is good. it is not going to happen. it is not going to be boring. technology" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ [ sigh ] not gonna happen.

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a kohler walk-in-bath provides independence with peace of mind. ♪ taylor: i am taylor riggs in for emily chang. this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, effectiveness questioned. oxfordneca and the covid-19 vaccine is screwed highest as -- is scrutinized as one analyst says the 90% label is embellished and only part of a small sample.