manus: good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. i am manus cranny. annmarie hordern alongside me. transition triggered. u.s. futures point higher as formal switch to the u.s. administration of joe biden begins. it comes amid hopes as astrazeneca vaccines could stop severe cases of coronavirus. another first. the president-elect looks set to

nominate janet yellen to his treasury secretary. she would become the first woman to hold the position. janet yellen has pushed for more fiscal spending during the pandemic. credentials could covid passports restart international travel? we will discuss the latest strategy with its ceo this afternoon, and before then, we are joined by the chief executive of the dutch flag carrier. do not miss that conversation. it is 6:00 a.m. in london and 7:00 a.m. in zurich. a little bit of breaking news on novartis and we will come back to that in a moment but there is a share buyback of up to $2.5 billion. so we will touch on that in a moment but i think we are in this momentum and we have almost got this goldilocks between a vaccineon starting, narrative, and janet yellen did not get elizabeth warren so

that's probably part of the cheer on the streets. >> certainly. i think wall street will embrace it but also the progressives will embrace her but with this pick which is historic, the first female to ever run the treasury department, she is both thoseicking boxes. she is welcomed manus: by the progressives. manus:absolutely. the language she used in regards to fiscal stimulus will certainly embolden people. familiarity is something markets like. if they know and understand the narrative, maybe they can be a little bit more optimistic. these markets are ripping up the script. aren't they? >> yes, certainly. take a look at where we trade this morning. we have seen global equities really rally. we are seeing equities advance up some .9% this morning. the kospi hitting another record.

and theacross europe united states moving to the upside. weakness in the softer dollar. janet yellen would bring that in. we are seeing the dollar weaker. look at that. brent crude with a $46 handle and backwardation in the trump spreads for brent crude. these are tiny at the moment but still, oil markets are finally going into recovery. as manus and i have been talking about, the official transition to a joe biden white house is finally underway. president trump said he instructed his team to start the process after the u.s. agency is -- acknowledged biden as the winner of the election as the president-elect plans to nominate janet as his treasury secretary, choosing the first woman and a season central banker for the economic policy job. joining us now is catherine doyle, investment specialist.

very good morning to you. 2020 has been like an onion of uncertainty and every day, we peel back layer by layer. we have a formal transition process underway in the united states and we have the secretary of treasury picked by the biden team at the market seems to like. i want to get your initial thoughts on all the latest developments. >> yes. i think that's an interesting choice that the market likes judging by its reaction yesterday and i think what it underscores is the fact that this is going to be a much more predictable and sort of collaborative approach taken by biden. and it is likely that because you have not had a blue wave, some of the more aggressive measures that the market was worried about are likely to be watered down, particularly on the corporate tax front. as well as some of the more

ambitious fiscal stimulus is. it's going to have a whole different tone and clearly, you know, the risk of unpredictability has been somewhat removed. so let's wait and see how this one unfolds. good morning. the risk of unpredictability also being assisted by the news flow from astrazeneca. we can -- we can get into the debate about the efficacy rates and the study. the overall mood and markets has pushed you towards a cyclical tilt. my question to you is where do you pick up the most cyclicality? is it in the u.s.? is it in europe? the u.k.? where do you go for your cyclical tilt? >> we have been looking actually globally but it is quite interesting that throughout this crisis, the kind of traditional

distinction between defensive and other cyclicals has somewhat changed in a sense because some of the more traditionally defensive names have actually come under pressure during the crisis. perhaps those businesses needed a physical presence and clearly, the crisis has hit them quite hard. thelly, some of the more areas that have been -- theynally a bit more have become more correlated to declining bond yields, so in a sense, the rules have changed. in terms of where we are looking, we are finding the u.k. quite interesting. we picked up some homebuilders construction names there. but we are looking -- we are finding opportunities in a lot of different areas, and some of them were beaten up and unloved

areas. which have been a bit neglected. the recent past has very much been the large cap tech show. obviously, that has come a little bit under pressure in recent months. but you know, we are finding plenty of opportunities of some attractively valued stocks. i was going to wait to ask you this until later in the show but you brought me there talking about the u.k. equity market. you talk about a triple discount baked into u.k. equities. do you think now is the time to buy ahead of a potential trade deal if you are pricing in the trade deal that gets done? >> when we are talking about a triple discount, we are thinking about the discount that you get from may be having a more , and also being inscount

the sort of mid-cap space, the large-cap space, so that makes it quite attractive, and yes, this is quite an attractive time to be looking in that area because you are seeing this more cyclical shift, having had stronger performance coming from the kind of other areas of the market. so yes, we are very alive to it. you know, the u.k., clearly, we don't have certainty there yet. if you did see some kind of deal being announced, you could see quite an outside move in that market. much. thank you so good to have you on the show this morning. let's get you up to speed with the first word news flow from around the world. endsnd's national lockdown next week but boris johnson says it will be replaced with a

tougher three-tier system of regional restrictions which will last until spring. and gymsers will be able to reopen. or details to come on thursday. surging coronavirus is raising fears. it is putting pressure to unlock even more support. wall street economists say it would not take much for the u.s. , the euro area, or japan to contract again, either this quarter or next. airline lobby is working on a mobile app to help travelers demonstrate their covid free status. the travel pass will display test results alongside proof of inoculation. the program will begin with british airways and the parent of iag before arriving on apple and android devices. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

novartis, i broke the lines to you earlier, delivering a share buyback. it is their investor day. that is going to start in the first half of 2021. this is the top line for them in terms of the rest of the news flow. you have the ceo. we really want to hear where we are with perhaps some of the targets on cost cuts. we are going to keep an eye on the news flow from the ceo. that is the very latest from novartis. coming up on the show, we are locked and loaded and ready to go. it is planning some major shakeup. 2000 jobs are to go. part of that restructuring to revive profit. we speak to the ceo of some of the changes. this is bloomberg. ♪ is bloomberg. ♪

manus: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. yogurt makerargest is cutting as many as 2000 jobs. bid to revive profitability after the coronavirus pandemic. the company shifting to focus on geographical areas rather than product categories. it should reach one billion euros by 2023. the man implementing the changes is the ceo. he joins us now with the plan. the company has summed it up. he joins us for an exclusive conversation. what are you localizing? the power of marketing, the power product?

how much power and where are you going to invest that power the most geographically? good morning. >> thank you for having me. yes, i think it's a very important announcement we made yesterday. the essence of this is that we found out we need -- the covid pandemic has exacerbated a number of trends in the food center. the biggest of them is certainly the question of local. you know, sovereign governments are talking about local food sovereignty. multinational environment is talking about the resilience of food systems. consumers are going local. we have this global category and they have been great doing that. i think we have been over probably hit by some of the trends in covid and some of that has got to do for the structural weaknesses we did not address.

one powerful unit of danone entities. the localdownload decisions for capital expenditures, brand development, for innovation, much closer to the market than we did before. we produce locally. most of what we produce is consumed 90% of our volume. that is essentially what we are doing. >> you admitted misuse of resources and analysts are skeptical about the plan, one saying we have been here and we are not sure if this will make a difference. how are you going to convince the market that this plan will actually work and we will be able to stem those structural

changes? emmanuel: i think that is not a statement based on facts. it is a very important one. saving one billion euros out of our indirect spat. today, we still have five instances to decide most of the capex routine decision-making. about the way we work. big chance the organization makes -- we are creating in parallel and integrated value chain system that will also extract several hundred millions of euros out of

efficiencies across category in the countries. manus: emmanuel, these are huge ambitions. the market is perhaps a little bit short of breath and short of time for you to execute. how much time do you give yourself to fully execute this gargantuan task? emmanuel: well, it's not gargantuan. and ik it is well-planned have absolutely no doubt of that. tohave set teams apart execute that plan and deliver on the business in the same time. we expect to start that in the early part of next year with the full completion in the course of 2022. the first benefits of which will be in the second half of next year already. returneans that we will to profitable growth as soon the

second half of next year. to thethe target margin plea covid levels for 2022. you kind of said yesterday a lot of these structural problems were there before the pandemic and the pandemic has really shed light on that. why did it take the pandemic to force you to change, emmanuel? beenuel: the company has making huge progress on so many things. we have been the first ones to really go after that. put together one planet, one health ambition, which is a huge sustainability platform for the future. it delivered the 60% increase in the eps of the company in the last four or five years. things were trending and we were working on many things so we knew that at some point in time, we are among the last companies that are still in silos of them globally. came.en the pandemic

it's very much about mobility away from home. we faced probably a dip in the birthrates and a bigger cost in logistics and products that we carry in our vegetable and dairy products so all in all, we decided to go for it. you also said you have over innovated. you must be the only ceo i have met that beret innovation. you have way too many products. erates innovation. you have way too many products. toanuel: we will go from 10% 30% reduction. a super good example of what we did is what we did with horizon organic last year in the u.s.,

the leading organic meal brand in the u.s. 30%.t our skus by that's 3% to 10% of additional output in the factories. we put that on the most growing skus, delivering double-digit growth, and improvements of the market share, so this is really a recipe for efficiency and focusing on what we need today, our partners, and e-commerce, which is a more efficient, lower passing value, basically. the trend for the smaller brands that was for the last several years and that went very well for us, i think it's over for at least a time and that is why we are reducing that. , thanke: emmanuel faber you so much for catching up with manus and i this morning. an exclusive interview with the danone ceo. coming up on the program,

another first. president-elect joe biden picks janet yellen has his treasury secretary. she becomes the first woman to hold the job if confirmed. we will talk to a reporter who followed her every move at the fed. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> markets do not like uncertainty. they like certainty. they know what they are likely to get with janet yellen as treasury secretary. agenda for atant treasury secretary now is the economic recovery, and she is an economic recovery specialist. offar-left autonomy for lack a better word to control the narrative the way that she did. >> i'm hoping janet yellen takes a page from good treasury secretary is like jim baker or robert rubin and even alexander hamilton gets a musical play

named after her. >> she would be inheriting the treasury position at a really difficult time for anybody in that position. we are far from -- these are sobering times for the markets generally. >> that will be much more subject to the political weightings of washington. i don't know that we know how well she can navigate those political waters. >> the financial markets, banking regulators, they have never been her forte. she is a labor economist. that is where the greatest appeal is. annmarie: good morning. some of our guests weighing in on the pick for treasury secretary. on what disappointment means, our senior economy editor joins us now. you covered yellen when she was head of the fed. i want to ask you how atypical

is this type of pick for the treasury department? >> certainly. aside from her being the first woman head of the treasury department if she is confirmed, she is really not a creature of washington politics. this is something that strikes her.hen you've seen academic is one and a political is the other word to describe her. as we heard from some of the other guests, she was a former professor at uc berkeley. she is a celebrated economist in her own right. i like how kathleen hays put it earlier today, saying that yellen is not seen as pro-or anti-bank, but always trying to ensure the health of the banks, which is a welcome message to markets, especially looking for more stability from policymaking these days. we saw that positive initial market reaction and we continue to hear voices from across the political spectrum. is talking about this as a smart choice. it's notable she would be a rare

fed chief. fed andt the new york then assumed the role as the head of the treasury department. fed chiefsjust two who had served as treasury secretary in the early 1900s but in the 1970's. it has been some time. she has also been able to voice some of these lines of criticism from her would-be predecessors had in the job. remember that a lot of people had criticism for people who was derided for being two cozy with markets since he headed up goldman sachs. jack lew was seen as lacking any foreign policy experience, which is not a weakness of yellen's, having been chair of the fed. one must observation for her not being of washington, when she was on the bloomberg new economy she thought whether she would be a good treasury

secretary, and instead of using the cliched washington line that she was happy in her job, she said she would let others decide . he said she would be a great treasury secretary on the panel. certainly not a typical pick. manus: thank you so much. michele jamrisko, our senior economy reporter. what will the guys of janet -- guise of janet yellen be? she is a labor economist and to that end, she will have that input into what comes after the cares act. activision goldman sachs chief economist tells us u.s. gdp will be back at p pandemic levels by the end of the third quarter in 2021. more right here on "bloomberg daybreak: europe." this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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it inflates in 30 seconds. aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. >> good morning. 6:30 a.m. in london. live in dubai. this is day break europe. here is what you need to know. u.s. figures pushed higher as the formal switch to the administration with joe biden comes amid hopes an astrazeneca vaccine can stop severe cases of the coronavirus. the president-elect looks set to nominate janet yellen as

this is treasury secretary. she had become the first woman to hold the position. she has pushed for more spending during pandemic. we'll discuss the latest strategy with the c.e.o. this afternoon and before then, we'll be joined by the chief executive of k.l.m.. you don't want to misit. good morning to you. 6:30 a.m. in london. markets getting higher as we have this transition takingfect in d.c.. manus: absolutely. yellen we understand to the treasury secretary position. please, sir, can i have some more. blackrock upgrading u.s. equities to overweight. semiconductor software stocks is where you want to park your money. the best since 1995. you have the astrazeneca vaccine adding to the numbers

and we'll have more on the efficacy a little bit later. a look at the bond market. i like it. it is ra reflection over the growth trade. still in the green zone. 7645 is where we are. a nice note out this morning from morgan stanley this morning. 1.45%. that side going to take a remakes thery narrative to get there. the dax is shifting. the benchmark is shifting. dani burger has the details. what is what does it take to be part of the dax? good morning. >> it is growing and becoming more strict of who can be in this german bench mark index. there are rules that have been proposed about four weeks ago

or they went through a period of four weeks where 600 commented on them. the rules they have decided on, it will be 40 members instead 30. they must post quarterly results. already companies do this but they are saying the dax if, they don't post quarterly results they will have a swift exit from the index. they also need to show they have been profitable for two years. what does this mean for the current constituent turnovers dax? it means that companies for example like liberty that got added when they were booted from the index are no longer eligible to be included in this manger man bench mark index. they have not posted annual profitability which is what the dax is requiring. looks like some of the other proposals that the company that owns the dax has proposed have not made the cut. some of the other proposals

they have included are things like banning companies that have controversial weapons, turnover requirements as well. controversial weapons do not look to be in the press release that they release. perhaps there are some concerns that would have made it like an e.s.g. sort of index. we know the main proposals have been held up and that is expanding the dax and meag it for difficult to be a member of it. >> more difficult. looks like they are cleaning up a little bit. how much of it or is it all of it a reaction to what happened with wire card? >> i think wire card is absolutely sort over the fuse that lit this decision. if you look at what happened with wire card for years, it stayed on the dax despite accounting irregularities. once the company was headed toward insolvency, it took months to be removed from the dax because they didn't have

proo visions for a quick -- provisions for a quick exit for a company like that. the hope here is they are putting in more requirements. they think so like profitability. being able to post results and if they don't do so, these companies will be swiftly removed. i think the dax is hoping to avoid another controversy like they experienced with wild card lingering in the index despite all of its issues. >> thank you so much for that breaking news on the dax. expanding but harder to get in. the coronavirus has had a devastatingfect on the global economy but recent vaccine news is helping to inject a dose of optimism. goldman sachs' economist says he does not expect the pandemic to leave lasting scars in the economy. we n terms of the growth,

think ss going to be the strongest quarter, other than q 3 of 2020. after that we will see strong growth for 2022. our forecast is about 4% annual average. just not as rapid. what you're asking, what are the long-term scouring effects on the output from maybe temperature rare labor markets disruptions and the huge spike in unemployment, maybe bankrupt sis, maybe a debt overhang. our view is generally that those things are not going to have a large impact but certainly possible that the level of output, say three, four, five years out is going to be lake-effect below what you would have expected prepandemic. possible but i think so far we have not seen a lot of clear evidence of these kind of scouring effects.

bankruptcies are lower than a lot of people thought. there are still a lot of people temporarily unemployed. i think there is -- opposed to permanently unemployed. the news has been pretty good so far. manus: that was a very bullish goldman sachs. talking about the positive 2021. a positive outlook for the economy. the stars are aligning. we have vaccines and transitions and a treasury secretary. i'm going to show our viewers a map which is on bloomberg.com this morning and it is a map that has the details of nearly 6 million people facing eviction in next two months in the united states of america. 18 million adults are behind in mortgage and rent payments. this is the underbelly of covid. this is the economic reality. are we overly ebullient and

bullish on the u.s.? >> clearly, there are risks. i think one thing that biden is going to have to decide is whether to implement a lockdown in u.s. we know that he is more cautious than trump was in the management of covid. and clearly, yes, the real economy is going to come under pressure. it is already under pressure in you know, globally. there will be bumps along the road. you need to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. the bigger picture is that the recovery, obviously with the vaccines on the horizonan is becoming more tangible. you know, previously it felt like it was an open ended crisis. really no end in sight. the difference now is that it is time bound. so we though that in the

spring, we will have some vaccine or potentially earlier. that facilitates planning. so of course there will be casualties along the way and there will be some businesses that won't survive this and we have already seen some sort of corpses along the way. but generally, taking that step back, if you're in the right companys with the right characteristics with decent balance sheets, with strong cash flow generation, you can actually make really good returns in a very sort of risk-conscious fashion. >> we have yellen coming in. she will have the labor market front and center. she was pushing for more fiscal stimulus. you're talking about now that we have a timeline. do you think because we do have this timeline that is just going to encourage republicans to potentially continue to block any more fiscal stimulus

packages the democrats want to draw up? >> i mean, there will probably be some kind of -- in terms of stimulus but there is a recognition that the market is -- for more stimulus. the fed put is something that markets have become accustomed to and reliant on. i think if we're going to continue, there may be delays. it is quite possible that you are getting to see the same combination of monetary and fiscal. of course the beauty of fiscal is that not only can it be deployed for green-type projects that are you know, politically as well as, particularly in europe, very latable but they can also be economy.into the q.e. , it would not feed

through to the areas of the economy that really needed that sort of monetary easing. >> cathy lynn doyle. thank you so much for joining manus and myself this morning. newton investment management investment specialist will thank you for your time. coming up on the program, you have your luggage check. passport check. helping airlines out of the pandemic. how viable are they? that is coming up next. don't miss that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. this is day break europe. manus cranny alongside me in

dubai. we're going to talk about restarting international travel. there is a mobile app that will help demonstrate their status. it will have test results and proof of inoculation. all of this comes as the airline needs a further $80 billion to survive the resurgence of covid-19. this includes air france k.l.m. which has received ample funding to stay afloat. joining us now is their c.e.o. very good morning to you. i want to start with how we can get back on planes once again. quanta c.e.o. talked about the vaccine c.e.o. the will be a necessity for any passenger on his flight. will that be necessary for any

passenger on an air france k.l.m. flight? > sorry, i can't hear you. annmarie: we'll try this one more time. hopefully you can manus. i think we have lost him at the moment. the question you and i both are interested about is when we can get back on planes. is it going thob covid passport. will you need the vaccine to get back on the plane or is it going to be a ramp up of testing? manus: we had a conversation about it. it comes down to this. it is about rapid testing. are the airlines developing it? yes, we're going to have a vaccine. that is coming. that is a statement of fact but what gives you the insurance if you get on a plane with 300 other people if you don't have rapid testing?

i think we have pieter back. do you want to kick off the conversation? annmarie: thanks so much for dealing with any technical issues. i just started the conversation with what alan of qantas said. if you are passenger and want to get on the a qantas flight you have to show prove you had a covid-19 vaccine. is that going to be a necessity on an air france k.l.m. flight? >> i think the fact that we have vaccines available in the future is a positive thing for the industry then we need to look at what are the local rules and regulation and legislation country by country by country. wrnk the vaccine will help restore travel. i think it is a bit premature now to say whether it will be mandatory now. we fly to some 80 countries around the world and we follow rules and regulations.

manus: good morning to you. it is manus in dubai. rapid testing is one way to ill those planes with more confidence. for ann marie, for me, for your customers. are you developing a rapid test? do with need rapid testing more quickly to fill the planes before a vaccine arrives? >> absolutely. i think the rapid testing which is now being introduced at some airports and we worked together to have it available here at the airport is a big importance for restoring confidence. the vaccine will be there. it is good news but it will take sometime before it is idely distributed. annmarie: even if you decide that you're going do rapid testing on your flight, what if a government says even if you

take a test before your flight when you land three days later you still need to self-isolate. how much of this is dependent on government policy? >> obviously a lot. that's why it is so important to come up with some industry measures. an airline probably even more than any other business is such a global industry we need to have global rules, incentives. now with this pandemic, every country is taking its own measures when it comes to healthcare which is understandable to some extent but when we start to restore air travel we need to have global standards and rules and regulations when it comes to these facts and these guaranteed measures which are this place today are very bad for travel and for the individual. if rapid testing could avoid that that would be really a step forward for the industry and more importantly for our consumers. manus: bill gates says 50% of

business travel will evaporate when we come out of this and get a vaccine. do you estimate the same decline in business class travel and will you trim your cabins appropriately? >> no, i think i'm sure he will have his own views and ideas behind that. when we see what's going on in the market then we see that business travel is wanting to come back and they want to sort of engage again with people and travel to places and meet up ith their customers, their clients, their businesss relationships. it is probably going to be more cautious flying. that is so important as an industry we build it back better and have a better service, a better flexibility, better sustainability and so on. i believe it will come back. it will depend on the vaccine and some of the local

economies. annmarie: i want to ask just where you are in the finances. air france's c.e.o. said last week you need to reach an agreement with the government on capital but the cash was not urgently need. when is it urgently needed? when will that assistance be needed by air france k.l.m.? >> it is very important that the two governments, the one for air france and the one in netherlands step forward very quick after the outbreak and provided loans to create some solid ground for us in order to move through this crises. now we're looking further ahead more into the future and there is going to be a point. i cannot and will not speculate what is needed for accepting what measures. there are still a lot of unsenchts in market out there. even the news over the last two to three weeks when the vaccine

is providing some positive momentum for the industry. it is lake-effect probably ewhat sure to speculate on points and time. manus: maybe the moment to strike is when the siren hot. do you think there is moreing withness from the french government than there is from the dutch government, the french to back france and the dutch to back you? >> yen, i think both governments have made a very important step forward for each of the governments have to deal with its own legislation, its rules. they are not exactly the same in france where they are in the netherlands. what is most important is both of them have strong support for the two airlines and a search for air france and to move forward to get through crisis. the way it is done is maybe

slightly different. on the outside it may look a bit different but 7 billion for air france and 3 billion in loans for k.l.m. and a set of conditions which are similar for both sides. it underlines the importance the two airlines are having for their respective economies. manus: we wish you well with the arrival of that vaccine. i can't wait to personally get back on a plane. i know annmarie is of a similar mindset. we wish you well with the financing and 2021. coming up on the show, we released the bloomberg covid resilience rankings. the project looks at how the world's biggest economies have handled the coronavirus pandemic. it launches at 9:00 a.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. this is day break europe. i'm with manus cranny in dubisme let's get a check of the equity open. global markets rallying this morning. we have a transition underway with the biden transition and we have a treasury secretary pick janet yellen ticks two bosses. welcome by the progressives. you see the bloomberg dollar ndex trading down. manus: that has set the tone. a slightly softer dollar. you have the aussie flying little bit higher on that trade. by the way, we have a crisis. we have glasses on, glass off. that is powering ahead. we have the cyclical tales with kathleen doyle with us this morning. it is sort of a dwoldy lox

moment -- goldilocks moment. i was taken aback when 6 million americans might be evicted within the next two months. katherine cede i have to look through that and look at the bigger picture. >> we continue to see the divergeance that janet yellen has spoke about. she wasn't able to fix fed. the other risk this morning is hong kong. closing bars and restaurants. the city haffs well ahead of everyone else now having to dial things back due to the virus. there still is risk in this market. manus: absolutely. we could have -- i think it was a bumpy ride. i watched jonathan yesterday doing an interview yesterday everyone. one of the guests said you're going to get the momentum but it could be a bumpy ride. i can't wait to actually book a flight, can you? annmarie: yeah, i can't wait to

get back to heathrow airport terminal 5. i look forward to you visiting london. that does it for us. anna edwards is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets the european open. i'm anna edward. the cash tried isless than an hour away. here are your headlines. the transition begins. the spinach into the dministration of joe biden begins. janet yellen, a supporter of more spending.