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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  November 24, 2020 5:00am-6:00am EST

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is formally designated the winner. the transition process can begin. stocks and futures climb. the dollar slides. from the fed to the treasury. biden looks set to nominate janet yellen, a supporter of more fiscal spending, as his treasury secretary. she was the first female fed chair. if confirmed, she'd be the first woman to head the treasury. plus, the dax gets the biggest makeover since its inception, increasing the index to 40 members, with tougher rules on reporting and profitability. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. tom, the markets are pretty quiet at the moment. a sigh of relief that they got through for the moment not only a treasury secretary picked, which we are still waiting for confirmation of, but multiple sources have said it is janet yellen. they are also siding because for the first time in three weeks, there is acknowledgment of the transition.
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the transition process starting to kick in. tom: not only the good news, but just as much as there was no bad news today, and that gives a lift to equities and other adjustments in the market. jeffrey currie will join us from goldman sachs, which is wonderful. futures up 27 and we will talk about the data in a moment, but yes, chair yellen front and center in this historic moment for our politics. francine: let's get to bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: president trump is finally calling on his agency to cooperate in the formal transition process with joe biden. that follows weeks of inaction. the general services administration made its official -- made it official with its acknowledgment that biden was the winner of the election. still, president trump says he will contest the outcome of the vote. formeren has turned to fed chair janet yellen to be his treasury secretary.
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she would become the first woman in the job if she is confirmed. she is likely to win support from wall street and democratic party progressives. board has a michigan voted to certify the election results. that practically ensures joe biden's victory over president trump in the state. only a possible republican recount stands in the way of assuring that biden will win michigan's 16 electoral votes. british foreign minister boris johnson it has confirmed that england's national lockdown will end next week, replaced by a tougher system of regional restrictions designed to last until spring. johnson says that if all goes well, the vast majority of people who need a coronavirus vaccine will get one by april. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries,
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gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. in the equity markets, a nice move here. i want to make clear, intraday futures, we got the dow 30,000 for not even a cup of coffee, a little quick espresso shot. but for the most part we are up against tradable highs come on dow, 36.02. he was futures up 37. the vix really cooperates off of yesterday's enthusiasms. .2.20 we will see it near a 21 handle in a bit. market, continued persistence of weak dollar is how i would put it. that's all it got right now. francine? francine: i have a similar data check to yours. energy stocks leading the stoxx 600 index. banks notching gains.
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stock markets globally are trending higher after the gsa acknowledged biden is the apparent winner of the presidential election, and the move reduces his political uncertainty in the u.s. - crude oil is advancing. thesesually we bring in videos, but they need a little explanation as we get to michael mckee and his wonderful perspective. on october 19, it was just another interview with chair yellen, on a project of hers that was great. i of course was completely rude and brought up treasury, and even worse, i just sort of went along through the motions. andn picked up the baton directly addressed the fiscal policy of this nation. she brought that up in the interview versus us really bringing it forward. here is a fired up janet yellen.
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>> we need support for the economy, both for monetary and fiscal policy, and monetary policy has already done a huge amount. fiscal policy response in the united states has been extremely isressive, but actually it much larger fiscal support than what we have done after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. but the fiscal support has now lapsed. it is not their objective ever to directly try to help the federal government finance its budget deficit, and that would be a very dangerous kind of support to provide. but i do expect -- i think asset purchases have worked. they are hoping to have longer-term rates, and i expect there to be ongoing purchases. theprobably not geared to
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fiscal deficit. tom: very good, chair yellen there, we would believe will be heading toward treasury. michael mckee with tons of experience on this now. michael, i go back and i look at albert gallatin, i look at maybe a few other bright people who have taken the job, but other than that, she is the smartest room as well.or in crisis, what will she do as secretary of treasury? michael: it will be interesting to see how well she gets along with congress. if there is one area she has not done the same sort of thing as in powell it is as liaison congress with both parties. we don't know how she will work with the senate. she should be easily confirmed. she has been confirmed three times. but in terms of stimulus
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package, that is an open question. however, the important thing i think to most people is that she is very familiar on wall street, and as biden said last thursday, his choice is someone who i think will be accepted by all elements of the democratic party, from regressive to the moderate coalitions. she has a history of serving under democratic coalitions. accuracy -- for her advocacy of longer for lower interest rates, i think she will be quite popular in the beginning. the jack lew came out of trenches of massachusetts politics for that congressional mandate. is there a theory of janet yellen? is she a kind of economist? michael: she is a labor market economist. she is definitely a keynesian. she leans towards the idea of doing as much as you can to
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bring down the unemployment rate is opposed to controlling inflation. not that she likes inflation, but she felt that something changed in the economy, and there is a famous line from her in 2012 where she argued for qe3 against those worried about additional bond buying leading to accelerating inflation or a market bubble. she says these concerns pale in comparison to the potential economic and human costs of failing to reduce the unemployment rate as aggressively as we can. she set the stage for what the fed has been doing. because of her, the unemployment rate got down to 4.1%, much iter than the fed thought -- continued under jay powell. she was the one who really pushed the policy of let the economy go and see how low we can get unemployment. thecine: michael, given secular stagnation environment, how will monetary and fiscal policy have to work together,
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and how new and complex will that be? michael: it will be interesting to see if it is anything new. what a lot of people are saying now is that because of her experience at the fed, she understands the important -- the importance of the fed lending treasury secretary steven mnuchin is eliminating, and she would put things like that back in place. what treasury did is guarantee the fed against losses, and if the fed gives back the money that has not been spent to do that yet, in theory should could reprogram and bring it back. so people will look to see if they set up the same kind of system where the treasury helps the fed with lending programs going forward. what they do after that is kind of an open question. the fed at this point can only raise and lower interest rates, other than the lending programs. so there isn't much more for them to do. pushed to keep
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rates lower, which would be basically the only thing they can do -- lower for longer -- they probably will go along because of the economic situation they find themselves in. could we see more coordination between the two, or is it too soon to tell? michael: i don't know how much more coordination there can be. they have worked closely together so far. thego back to world war ii, treasury agreed to keep rates pinned to fund the war effort. i suppose you could formalize something like that, although fed officials are concerned about the idea that if you wander too far into fiscal territory, they would like to stay in their lane as much as possible. but that doesn't mean they won't do what treasury wants and keeping rates low because the economy calls for it. tom: michael mckee, thank you so
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much. i'm sure we will hear from you through the day. international economics and janet yellen correspond. coming up, jeffrey currie from goldman sachs. rent crew at a target of 47, 40 6.53. 43.58.xas, a good time to speak to dr. curry. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪
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tom: bloomberg surveillance. good morning, everyone. lots going on. we are going to get to turkish lira. it is center tendency off the weakness and the huge advancements, really coming back abruptly this morning, 7.95 in
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turkish lira. right now, jeffrey currie with us from goldman sachs head of commodities research. oil off -- why? the impact on oil demand and economic activity is not nearly as severe as what we saw back in the spring, so that is one positive factor. is other positive factor people are looking into the second half of next year, and they see a much tighter market. whether we are talking oil or any of the commodities, every single one of these commodity markets with the exception of wheat today is in a deficit. you have to ask yourself what happens when you get a normalization of economic growth if the markets are already in a deficit. everyone of these markets have been moving higher over the left several weeks. tom: let's call it the prize.
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president biden has to do with the prize as well. does the election folder into oil dynamics, or rather, i should say, in which way does it? well, you have two aspects to that. in terms of looking at the impact that regulation is going to have on the oil market, it is very positive. the other one is a lot of people think the environmental policy is negative into oil. initially it creates a lot of stimulus that will benefit oil demand as opposed to hurt it. and the chinese are buying all sorts of commodities because they think biden is going to be much softer on the trade wars. the negative is there is a higher probability that probability of iran coming back online. what i want to emphasize that is embedded in our forecast for our target next year at $65 a barrel.
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francine: what is your base case in terms of how energy policy under a biden administration actually changes? jeff: obviously the biggest moving factor is an iranian deal. that is the one that i think most people in the energy market have their eye on. the other is that you end up tighter regulations around emissions with other regulations on the sector. think the big one that everyone is focused on in energy policy is iran. but i want to emphasize we have this embedded in our forecast, and we still have deficit markets, the second half of next year and going into 2022. francine: do you also have embedded in your forecast a vaccine that you be a rollback to the population worldwide by the first quarter of 2021 where we go back to normal?
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jeff: i want to emphasize that the vaccine is really a tactical in 2021.for upside i want to say it again, every single one of these markets, whether it is agriculture, metals, or energy, with the exception of wheat, which means what we had -- what happens when you get that tactical improvement, numeral's asian into the economy, it is the upside. but i think more importantly it is that the pandemic itself is a structural catalyst, which we think that that v-shaped recovery next year is going to be the beginning of a structural bull market economy. tom: it is just a blended blue commodityoomberg index. is the goldman sachs call that we finally get a legit turn toward some form of optimism in commodity and a lift in blended prices?
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jeffrey: absolutely. i think there are three themes that we are focused on. the first is that we have policy driven demand. something we have not seen in a long time. if you think about the financial crisis, you needed policy aimed at financial stability. the covid crisis is one of social need, so the policy based on social need would impact slover income house -- lower income households, with much more compounded he -- commodity intensive. you thing about the financial crisis, policy was aimed at crating a wealth effect. a wealth effect benefits high income households. they don't consume a lot of commodities. when you look at policy directed at social media, -- at social demand is one. strong returns and new economy sucking all the capital out of the old economy, structural
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impediments. that is why -- the third theme is reflation. a weak dollar reinforces higher commodity prices. our conviction on commodities moving higher -- i want to emphasize, soybeans, corn, copper, a lot of these markets are moving a lot higher today. francine: what are you expect from opec next week? what will they do? jeffrey: our base case is a rollover of the current production cuts. we don't see the increase in supply coming until april. i do want to say there is uncertainty around it right now, but -- i want to emphasize, they have gone back and said they are committed to opec. it is not in their interest to start a price war at this point, so we think it is going to be a rollover, extending that production increase until april of next year. i want to emphasize, due to the structural declines in supply company increases next year, we still have saudi going to 9.5 in
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april of next year, going to 10.5 in the first quarter of 2022. there is room for opec to bring back that supply online, which everybody at opec gets increased market share going into the second half of next year, but the vaccine on one side, structural supply on the other. francine: jeff currie of goldman sachs stays with us. in the next hour, we will be speaking about janet yellen with jason furman. that is coming up in about 30 minutes from now. york, 11:30in new am in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. blackrock is betting on the future of personalized index investing. the world's biggest asset manager agreed to buy a creator of tailored index strategies that are popular with the rich. the price a little over a billion dollars in cash. perio is owned by private equity firm old gate capital and their employees. platform in paris, the aim to make sure that shares an -- shares can still be bought and sold. goldman has asked french
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authorities for permission to start in january. it is a major shift in a fight that has fracture the american auto industry. general motors will withdraw from a legal battle between the trump administration and california. gm had backed the -- gmstration's attack on says its goal of speeding adoption of electric vehicles is aligned with joe biden's supportive cleaner cars. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. tom? francine? thank you so much. elon musk giving a keynote on tackling the next generation of batteries. this is the ua a comfort -- the u.n. conference on batteries, a nonevent even three or four years ago, now the future of some of these companies depend on what kind of batteries they will get. for most of us, this is a virtual event with elon musk giving his thoughts on batteries, and we will have plenty more on that when he gives us insight into how our battery storage will be
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different. we will bring you that. in the meantime, this is what the market is looking at. the markets are figuring out exactly what the administration will bring. let's listen into elon musk right now. prices --ot of processes where we are improving the time and we have to redesign shin re-for continuous low operation. occasions, designing the prototype really of any advanced technology is i think relatively easy, and then scaling up to high-volume production is very hard. ♪
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>> two solar -- tom: focus. mr. musk up.
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tesla and s&p 500 stock. many people, number of quarters ago, suggesting the deartth of tesla. not happened. has a battery conference in europe. speaking on climate and esg, which quickly brings us to the moment at hand in the united states. francine: this was yesterday with joe biden picking john kerry, the author of the paris --ord, his climates are climate czar. jeff currie still with us. respected,eone very someone who knows the ins and outs of washington and world leaders with john kerry. what will he do for renewables and climate change and does it
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change your view on when we see peak oil? jeff: it does not change our view on when we see peak oil, but it does change our view on the amount of stimulus and potential investment near-term. we are likely to see so much stimulus around environmental policy, whether it is renewables, alternative energy sources, over the course of the next five to 10 years and it is likely to add more to oil near torn before it transitions off in the future. our base case is we need to spend $2 trillion per year to deal with climate change on a global basis. between the u.s. and what is going on in europe and china, this year it will be closer to $5 billion. but this is on par with the capital intensity we saw during the 2000's.oom in
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and we look at copper and metal demand over the next five years, it will actually be bigger under in current environment than the 2000's. this is significant. and if we get a blue sweep out of georgia, that number goes up tremendously under the biden administration. near-term focus, this is real, big, it will benefit commodities, particularly metals. dealing with the whole question of peak oil demand, there is a lot of policies that need to be dealt with to get to that, quite further out. 2035 and beyond. this is a big stimulus to global economy. policy is focused on social need, climate change is one of those social needs. francine: are the chinese ready
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for the end of peak oil? are they ready to transition? jeff: you look at the five-year recently,they put out and it is really focused on green investment, like it is in europe and in the u.s. so they are making the investments. the low hanging fruit is on the power generation side, where you do renewables to be able to replace coal. the real difficult one is transportation. the technology aroundev's are difficult. they will strain both markets. between tesla and apple, they represent 50% of the world's lithium market, so just imagine we try to expand it, it will really stressed these commodity markets. last year, the world produced 95 billion internal combustion engines. we only produce somewhere around
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1.5 million ev's, most of them the plug-in hybrids. we have a long ways to go and there is a lot of stress that can be put on the metals markets. tom: i am fascinated with your thoughts. esg is oh so in. we see that with the presidential envoy for climate, john kerry. theory there to execute esg? not, with thely exception of some of the low hanging fruit in the renewables. generation side, coal is one of the defensive things on the board. we can replace that with the renewables and gas and make massive strides on the environment. the problem goes back to the
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ev's. they are able to be cost-effective with tax breaks, which creates problems down the road. to get to your point about ofting the right pricing what we need on a carbon market -- we do not have a carbon market on a global basis right now -- tom: this is really important, folks. as usual, dr. currie nails this. tof, do you see any ability structure an option based or law based carbon market? i do not see it out there. where is it? jeff: what we need are the two world, emitters in the the united states and china, to get together and create common standards to deal with the problem, much like they did with late 1970's and
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1980's. the acid rain experience is a casebook for environmental policy that led to an international, global problem, and there is no more acid rain. we know how to do it, we just are not doing it. tom: as usual, jeff currie killing it. on some of the theories of the incentives underlying climate change. in new york city with our first word news, here is ritika gupta. ritika: the formal transition of power between donald trump and joe biden has finally begun. the general services administration acknowledged biden was the apparent winner of the presidential election. president trump has called on his agencies to cooperate. still, the president said he will challenge the outcome of the election. ae biden may have found treasury secretary nominee who can appeal to both bankers and liberals.
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wall street is likely to support former fed chair and hollande because they fear a more provocative picked, like senator elizabeth warren. progressives were worried he would pick someone too friendly to the big banks. senator dianne feinstein will step down as the top democrat on the judiciary committee. feinstein is 87. she has been criticized by both the right and the left for how she dealt with president trump's nominees. bloomberg crunched the numbers to determine the best and worst places to be in the coronavirus era. we look to where the virus has been handled most effectively with the least amount of disruption. our covid-19 resilience ranking has new zealand as the best place, followed by japan and taiwan, south korea, and finland. the czech republic, belgium,
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argentina are at the bottom. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. francine: coming up next, we will talk more about esg in the markets. we will talk to lori heinel. this is bloomberg. ♪
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obviously someone who knows policy pretty well. now the secretary of treasury. >> i am hoping janet yellen takes a page from good treasury
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like -- even alexander hamilton, get a musical named after her. at ae's inheriting difficult time for anybody. these are sobering times for banks, for the markets generally, for individuals and corporations. her esteemed accomplishments, i do not know that we know how well she can navigate the political waters. >> the financial markets, these have never been her forte. she is a university of california berkeley trained labor economist. that is where the latest appeal is. francine: strategists and economists weighing in on joe biden's pick for treasury secretary, janet yellen. joining us is lori heinel.
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great to have you on the program. is all the good news now priced into the markets? lori: certainly a lot of good news is priced into the markets. that fact that we have promising development on the vaccine front, the fact as though it looks like we will get out of this gridlock in washington, in terms of a transition plan -- you now have at least progress on that front. overall, i think there are a lot of things are looking much more bright than they were a few weeks ago. francine: what makes you uneasy? is there a saturn shoot up of inflation? could we look at a monetary policy mistake? what are markets not focusing on right now that they should be? lori: there are still a lot of push and pull factors. the fact we have promising news on the vexing it is great, but we will still have a period before mass distribution of the vaccine, whichever one becomes available.
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so there is still some sort of term thatscal shorter-term fiscal stimulus need. --n we have if we start to see opening of markets globally around the world, that will be quite constructive. we are more worried about what happens after that, so the backend of 2021 could be more precarious. tom: good morning. i want to talk about the religion of temperate at carnegie mellon, which is all about measuring their certitude, the uncertainty out there, and at the backend of the equation is the greek letter epsilon. with the policy and certitude of joe biden, does that image the certitude of epsilon, so up, up we go? lori: it is a little naïve to
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say, all of a sudden, the uncertainty is dissipated. think about long-term structural trends. if you think about the potential growth rate of the u.s. and the globe, it was always a little bit less going forward than it was over the last several decades. so i think what people are focused on most right now is let's get out of this pandemic, which created a massive contraction come around the globe, of a magnitude that we had really never seen before, certainly not in the moderate era, let's get beyond that. it is note -- certainty in washington. perhaps the basis of some sort of collaboration. there is space for the two sides to come together, whether it is related to shorter-term fiscal stimulus or other things that made the related to infrastructure spending to help boost long-term profits, but we are hardly in a place where, all of a sudden -- that is just not where we are today. herewhat is so important
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is we underestimate how corporations adapt to pandemics. at state street, we have just a -- such a broad mandate, do you just assume we are underestimating the ability of the corporate world to adapt to the shock and to come out of it and continue to adapt into 2022 and 2023? lori: it is not just the corporate world. it is a government world, policy world, the consumer world. what has been remarkable -- when we look back, decades from now, and focus on what happened during 2020, i think we will be all amazed at the rapidity of the response. whether it was a monetary policy that got us away from the liquidity crisis, which could have been incredibly damaging back in the spring, whether it was at fast shutdowns but then the reopening's, which certainly did lead to a rebound in the third quarter, and ultimately, consumers adapted, to think
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differently about how we conduct our lives and businesses. there is a lot to learn about the adaptive nature of humans. francine: but going forward, what exactly is needed in janet yellen? what kind of policy to deal with this secular stagnation do we need? lori: again, the short-term focus will be to get us over this remaining hump. if you bind to the narrative that the vaccine finally puts us back to where we were a little over a year ago or about a year ago, than the issue is how do you do the least damage possible in the short term? think, a stimulus, we sets us up to get some sort of stimulus in the near term. there is longer-term, which is we ultimately need economic recovery, we need governments to not have to provide stimulus. we need businesses to get back into play. and again, the vaccination and
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other pandemic alleviation's help us get to that place. then we start to worry about things like what is the debt overhang and how is that going to influence things? we that is not a narrative are particularly worried about, at least for the first part of 2021. tom: thank you. we will continue with ms. hein el. coming up, jonathan golub joins quitecredit suisse with the year forward note. futures up 27, dow futures up exactly 300 points. this is bloomberg. ♪
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good morning. futures up 27. dow futures continued to advance. some actually good response. we are thrilled to bring you lori heinel with state street global advisors. .eputy global cio
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lori, we have not talked about bonds, which comes down to trying to figure out the risk-free rate at the zero bound. how do you do that so you get to an intelligent asset allocation? now, bondsinly right still play their role in a portfolio. sohave had sharp selloff while they may not dampen the volatility as they once did, but they still offer protection. we are roughly neutral on a strategic allocation basis. when you look at some of the concerns with china, and there were a couple of defaults that got people thinking about what it meant for the future, are we too optimistic about the trajectory of china from here on? is one of the few
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economies that will grow this year, so while maybe the longer-term remains quite a challenge for them, there are certainly opportunities there. bonds, theto combination of attractive opportunities there coupled with potential for some currency appreciation, we have actually select em broadly, china bonds in particular. it is a bit more of a relative value trade that exposures we have been trading around the last few months, but at the moment, there are interesting opportunities in china, both from a growth perspective as well as in fixed income. inncine: do havens change 2021? if you look at the way havens have done so far, how different will they look like? ofi: there are a variety
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ways to think about that. certainly from a u.s. dollar flight to quality standpoint, we think the dollar is a bit of a secular decline. so while we may see periodic rallies there, at the margins, we do not think that will be as strong a haven as in the past. we think gold, though, still has merit. there's not a lot of opportunity cost of holding gold. gold is a great diversifier at the extreme ends of inflation and deflation. and we think the yen continues to be a place where there could be stability, you could see a flight to quality there. but as you note, none of these things have exactly the same profile they once had. tom: is really important. the search right now for hedging proxies to replace bonds, i do not buy it for a minute. can you buy -- find a proxy for
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bonds to do constructive hedging, with bond yields so low? lori: there are a number of things that help. for a long time, the other means was fined income equity through replacement, so the other question is what is the proxy you're looking for? if you are looking for income replacement, you still cannot find that, but if you're looking for true, uncorrelated returns versus equities, part of it is what is the backdrop is driving equities. if you do get a selloff because of economic activity contracting, we do think bonds step in and create that kind of buffer, but if you get a selloff because you are seeing the market shift in terms of leadership, then bonds may not have the same buffering property. triedof it is where you to get out of that hedging property. tom: you have a great vision on
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what we actually do with our money. are we way underinvested internationally? lori: certainly it would seem that would be the case, and yet i would say we still favor u.s. stocks in the equity land. what has been happening is, over the last several months, we gradually reduced our underweight positions on non-us equities, in part because we think the currency appreciation will be there. but we still think that the u.s. has some sort of wind at its back, not least the sector makeup. there are a lot of growth oriented industries that are more highly represented. we have avery likely, question which is basically does yellen, as treasury secretary, finally bring inflation because of fiscal stimulus, and what does it mean for your bonds, are you underweight? -- we do not think
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the inflation problem is a next year problem. it builds both through a combination of demand, price action, expectations for inflation. right now, we do not see that as being anything that threatens the markets for the 2021 period. past that, the culmination of massive stimulus, high debt loads, etc., those could be inflationary things, but we do not see those as problems in running 21. streetri heinel, state global advisors, greatly appreciate it. in the next hour, chris marangi gave -- marangi. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.
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forward-thinking enterprises, deserve forward-thinking solutions. and that's what we deliver. so bounce forward, with comcast business. tom: this morning, biden picks y
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growing confront our debt and deficit. theicks yellen to confront inequalities of the two americas. does he big -- does she become treasury of the secretary with a recession? and over the river and through the airport terminal, this week, we travel amid pandemic. good morning. " fromberg surveillance london and new york. what is a travel story in the united kingdom? is heathrow empty? francine: heathrow those empty, but if you look at travel stocks, they are kind of on a tear. we heard about the u.k. government relaxing rules come december 2. at the moment, the u.k. is in lockdown, but from december 15, travel r

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