tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 25, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST
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♪ annmarie: good morning. 6:00 a.m. in london. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." here is our top stores today. turning up the volume. the s&p 500 hit an all-time high again and the dow crossing 30,000 for the first time. it is far from a quiet thanksgiving period. risks remain. france will gradually lift the nation's lockdown on saturday. germany may impose tougher
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restrictions on the u.k. looks to repair some of the economic damage in today's spending review. words ofs back, the president-elect joe biden as he introduces his foreign policy team. janet yellen faces a tricky start, as steven mnuchin puts funding beyond her reach. good morning. 6:00 a.m. in london, 10:00 a.m. across the emirates. a jampacked show for you, including emirates president tim clark. he spoke to manus cranny about a host of issues in the travel sector. also, likely an appearance from manus himself. what a day it was and a 24 hours it was, as chris weston put it, a nirvana has dissented over the scended over the market. dow jones topping 30,000 for the first time.
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s&p 500 index, we do have closing at an all-time high. we are losing a bit of momentum. flat across the asian market and flat across u.s. equity futures. we are seeing a steepening of the yield curve, not at the highs we saw recently, but we are seeing it steepening. jp morgan this morning also saying 10 year yields may hit 1.3% by the end of next year. oil on an absolute tear. $45 handle. brent closing in on potentially $50 per barrel. let's take a look deeper into the markets. joining us now for more on that is dani burger. good morning. dani: it is really crazy to think about. in 2017, i was at the dow jones, s&p headquarters. everybody was putting on their hats.
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three years later, we are at 30,000. one of the most remarkable things about this rally is the volume picture, which is what i have up your. more than 60 million shares have traded hands in the past two days. the reason that is remarkable is it is the week of thanksgiving. volume is usually lower. this time, it is 72% higher than it was last year. perhaps a sense of conviction behind these trades. the other sense you get is that retail is unrelenting, dare i say perhaps even leaving the rally. vanguardill lynch and confirmed that their brokerages online experienced outages. not even the infrastructure can keep up with the demand. retail has been trouncing not &p, but doing better than the hedge fund picks and
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made equity benchmark. that by two dip attitude -- buy to dip attitude really paying off. as we see the dow cross over 30,000, continue to see new records, the dow will get comparisons to the dot-com bubble. it is chock-full of cyclicals. this time, the rally is much more broad-based, value driven. we are seeing under love shares pick up and meet that tech rally. it certainly is a completely different atmosphere than that bubble. annmarie: yes, certainly is. our thanks to dani burger at our london hq. joining us now is joseph little, global chief strategist at hsbc global asset management. thanks for joining us. you talk about this phase we are in and you call it a restoration economy phase.
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what is your biggest conviction in terms of allocating capital in this economic phase? joseph: hi, good morning to you. inyou say, our main view terms of where we are in the cycle is that i think we are in a global restoration phase for the economy and business cycle. that's a phase of healing, a phase of progress. in that environment, you do not want to be underweight on growth equity asset classes. equities still make sense, even after the performance that we have seen. u.s. equities up 60% since the march lows. at this point, being pro-risk still in portfolios still makes a lot of sense to me for many of the reasons you alluded to. we have the vaccine news, which provides a clear sense of -- around the market of the growth scenario improving, diminishes
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some of those risks we faced. in that environment, it prompt to look at many lag are part -- laggard parts of the market in 2020 and look if they can be the leader in 2021. annmarie: that's the positive news. what are you seeing in terms of the biggest risk? joseph: that is really the question to wrestle with at this point in time. because on one hand, as you said at the top of the ship, all data show,- at the top of the all of the news about the vaccine is a big positive and that's part of what is behind the recent market action. but it is always important to skepticalit sort of of what is playing out in the market. i think the reality is that it is not plain sailing still.
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there are some questions and challenges around distribution with the vaccine. vaccines will primarily be shared and distributed with the u.s., u.k., european union and japan. there is relatively limited supply available to emerging markets. it's the next few vaccines that that would go to the emerging market. at the same time, you've got the virus still in the community, europe facing a double-dip recession, and the legacy of the crisis, abnormally high unemployment, stretched balance sheets. the question remains about whether or not policymakers are become a little complacent about some of the risks at a time when the real economy really does need continued and quite significant policy support from both monetary policy and fiscal policy makers.
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annmarie: that's what i have been thinking a lot about. it has been months for the united states to come around to another fiscal deal. now, with strong vaccine momentum, doesn't that encourage those that do not want another fiscal deal, like the republicans, to actually double down on the narrative? how dangerous is that to the real economy? joseph: i think that is the danger and the risk. the policymakers, analysts confuse some of the very rapid bounceback in economic activity in the third quarter, some of the performance in markets linked to growth optimism around the vaccine with a sustainable recovery on its own footing. we are still at a point where the real economy, the economic system depends heavily on fiscal support. advanced economies
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in the u.s. and u.k. today, we are really looking for continued signs of that policy support -- continued signs that the policy support is still going to be in place. the u.s. is in a much better place than other parts of the developing economy. you've got the macro momentum in there already in place. we saw the significant stimulus earlier in the year still toviding a sense of support household cash flows and the economy more broadly. for europe in particular, i think there is a real challenge. we need to continue to provide policy support. i think there is a danger that in an environment of better news around a vaccine, that creates complacency among policymakers. we are learning that
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european executives are losing confidence. we saw that in the report. what kind of hedges do you think are needed right now to protect yourself in this kind of environment? this kind of purgatory of time between now and when we actually see vaccines rolling out across the world? joseph: yes. i mean, it is getting harder and harder to find consistent and affordable hedges for our portfolios. in the event of weaker trends, weaker news flow, typically we would look to bonds as an asset class. . it is likely that many government bonds are going to disappoint at this juncture. i think investors have got to widen the net, look at a broader range of asset classes.
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asian asset classes, asian fixed income continues to perform very strongly. we are looking at a broader range of sort of new diversifying to try and provide resilience to portfolios against some of those downside risks. it's important to bear in mind the news flowhat and expectations around growth are moving, this reflation trade is becoming a big part of what the market is looking at and thinking about. toohiding away, being cautious is clearly not the right trading strategy at this juncture. it's important to remain with a sort of pro-risk strategy in our equity exposures and in our country allocation so we can participate if that reflation trade, that sort of catch up cyclical story continues to play out. annmarie: right. joseph little from hsbc global
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asset management is going to be staying with us this morning. one of the stories we have been looking at this morning's treasury secretary steven mnuchin's plan to put $455 billion in unspent cares act funding into an account that has presumed successor, janet yellen, will soon need authorization from congress to actually use it. it will make for a tricky start for the former fed chair. here are some of her comments from over the years. >> we need support for the economy, both for monetary and fiscal policy. monetary policy has already done a huge amount. i strongly believe central banks need to be independent and need to do everything they can. i do see the sentiments and the push now going very much in the direction of deregulation. reducingnk buffers
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see buffers-- reducing authorities. appropriately designed, tax reform could have an effect on productivity. it depends on the details of what you do. we need public policy oriented toward making a big difference on climate change. a very efficient way to price carbon would be to go to the where energye well that creates carbon emissions enters the economy and to simply levy a tax. while the tariffs may make goods more competitive, the appreciation of the currency will offset that, so i regarded that as not the proper focus. but let me be clear, i do think the united states has real issues in terms of its trade relations with china.
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♪ >> from saturday morning, several changes will become reality. i know to what extent the weight has been long and how much this contributes to our daily lives. our city centers, town centers. therefore, all shops can reopen and home service can restart, but within a strict health protocol. manus: that was french president -- annmarie: that was french
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president emmanuel macron announcing a gradual easing of lockdown measures. merkelchancellor angela is proposing tightening the rules and extending the nation's partial lockdown. here in the united kingdom, the rules will be relaxed over the christmas holiday. joseph little from hsbc global asset management is still with us. you hear it from the european leaders, the fact that they still need to get the virus under control. very different story when you look at the stock market and dow topping 30,000. there is a debate into positioning. fidelity sango hard on your. frank --templeton -- fidelity saying go hard in europe. do you think markets are getting ahead of themselves? mean, we felti that way along the course of this past -- fast recovery in
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the market. it has felt from time to time that the market is getting ahead of the trends in the economy, where we see the virus and abnormally high levels of unemployment. i think the reality is that a lot of what has been going on in the market has been linked to the policy support that we are seeing, the collapse in interest rates, the drop in the cost of capital has been a big support for markets. the question about what happens next and what region to be in is as much as anything going to be around how we see that pace of recovery coming through. if we do begin to see this sort of reflation trade take hold, that cyclical catch up story, growth expectations moving higher, that's going to favor the laggard parts of the market moving into 2021. there will be parts of the ,arket like europe, u.k. indeed and emerging markets outside of asia that would do well in that
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scenario. parts of the economic system that benefit most from the release and distribution of the vaccine and lag guard markets can catch up -- laggard markets can catch up. asia and the u.s. are going to be the more defensive parts of the market to focus on. annmarie: you expect a double-dip recession and united kingdom. you pose this question in your note, what could go right in the? --t can go right in the u.k. what could go right in the u.k.? what can go right in the u.k. right now? the united kingdom is still a lockdown. tomorrow, we are going to know which regions go in what tiers.. what can go right and united kingdom? -- in the united kingdom? joseph: you are right. as we look ahead to 2021, there
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is a sort of cyclical catch up story that we can begin to think about. itt is not a forecast, but is certainly a very clear scenario that is important for investors to be aware of. the developed economy and the have made significant advantage of pre-ordering the main vaccine, the pfizer vaccine, the astrazeneca vaccine. that creates a possibility where the u.k. could be one of the earlier parts of the global economy to achieve immunity, herd immunity within the population. 0hat, alongside of the 202 laggards, could become leaders in 2021 could give rise to a bit of a catch up story in terms of the performance of the u.k.
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economy. we have to look through that near-term double-dip in terms of the growth trend. as i mentioned, i think the key issue really is this worry around a policy error. policymakers have to guard a gainst being too complacent. on the balance of risk, i do not think we are looking at a replay of the austerity policies in the 2010's. there is a case of being more optimistic -- annmarie: joe, very briefly on the u.k., rishi sunak will have the spending review today. ft says it will come with 4.3 billion pounds of new funding. is that enough? joseph: well, the risk and the worry is a scenario where spending is reined in and deficit reduction is being planned ahead of the, not
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necessarily the next fiscal year, but over the next few years. i thk that is a positive step. i think the economy needs more support, needs more stimulus. retrenching are moving back towards austerity would be the big mistake at this point in time. i think what is being suggested and indicated in the press is that -- is a positive step and exactly the kind of positive -- policy stimulus and support that the u.k. economy needs to continue that path towards restoration and recovery in 2021. your famous restoration phase, healing and progress. we appreciate your time. global chief strategist at hsbc global asset management. coming up, moving closer. carrie lam vows to continue strengthening ties with china, but what is the feeling on the u.s. and joe biden's foreign
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♪ annmarie: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm annmarie hordern in london. hong kong chief executive carrie lam vowing to strengthen -- continue strengthening ties with china. she spoke against the backdrop of a new wave of virus infections. let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent, who is outside hong kong's legislative council. for viewers just waking up, give us a sense of these key takeaways from carrie lam's speech this morning. >> well, it was a long speech, for one. it was more than two hours, two hours and 17 minutes, and a lot of it deep into the weeds of
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local issues like recycling and illegal taxis. the international audience would not necessarily care about that. the key takeaways for our audience would be the short-term economic pain caused by the coronavirus, and her efforts to contain the recent fourth wave of outbreak. comparatively, it is not a big outbreak, but it is 80 plus cases for the last two days running. to have an economic recovery in hong kong, you need the border with china open up, because that is such a key component of economic growth here. this is an economy that is expected to contract by more than 6% for the full year. that's the first thing, keep the bars closed, the nightclubs, keep the virus contained, and then get the economy going up, open the border, have the travel bubble with singapore and we can move on. second is a bigger, longer term strategy outlined one president
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xi jinping came to shenzhen across the border. that was greater integration of hong kong with mainland china, in particular the southern housence, the power of shenzhen. even though there was so much angst on the streets in the last was focused on lesser integration with mainland china, less interference with the beijing. but carrie lam, now that the city is relatively calm following the law and agent, says we need to -- in june, says we need to move forward with a strategy that means greater integration with mainland china. annmarie: thanks to stephen engle. such a beautiful backdrop in hong kong. coming up, i odd or calling the -- iata calling the urgent
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♪ annmarie: good morning. 6:30 a.m. in london. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe" and these are today's top stories. u.s. futures flat this morning, but s&p's all-time high yesterday and the dow crossing 30,000 for the first time feeling momentum. it is far from a quite thanksgiving. risks remain. france will gradually lift the nation's lockdown on saturday.
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germany may impose tougher restrictions and that u.k. looks to repair some of the economic damage in today's spending review. "america's back," those are the words of president-elect joe biden as he introduces his policy team. -- hisk for the fed, tough --t yellen faces i want to take a look at where we trade this morning after that epic day we had in the equity markets yesterday. asian markets losing momentum. we are now negative across msc asia-pacific. futures in the united states and in europe are relatively flat this morning, potentially losing some momentum in this thanksgiving week, which we are seeing a lot higher volume than we usually do. we do have the steepening across the treasury yield curve. when it comes to the 10-year this morning, jp morgan sank 10 10.3% -- mayay get
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hit 1.3% by the end of next year. wti at a $45 handle. just seven months ago, we were trading in negative territory. some may question whether or not this is running too high. complications for opec when they meet. the urgented for reopening of borders. positive vaccine news has given the industry boost, but the lobby group's ceo told bloomberg it would take time to revive travel demand. >> are based on a vaccine available by mid 2021, which is not something insane, which is pretty reasonable. you need to have a significant proportion of the population vaccinated for the countries to be comfortable to lift all
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restrictions and do whatever they can to restart or to help to restart air traffic. annmarie: of course, there is no industry that is as anxious as the airline sector when it comes to awaiting vaccine distribution. earlier, emirates president tim clark spoke exclusively to manus cranny about his hope for a travel revival in 2021. tim: it's early days here. let's just get the vaccine rolled out on a global basis. let's assume that we can see some real progress on that by about the second quarter of next year calendar. let's assume that in europe and america, it rolls out with that speed and scale so by the middle of next year, we will see a lot of movement and demand increase out of the western world, so to
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speak. it is important of course that the distribution is on a global scale so we do not leave anybody out of this. summit,in the last g20 they had an agreement that they would try and make sure that there was equitable distribution to the developing world as much as to the developed world. if that happens, and of course that will take place right the way through 2021 and probably in the first quarter of 2022, and i can see demand for travel moving at pace during those months in all the segments. one, there will be a substantial recovery for those people who have not been able to travel, wish to recapture what they had been doing before and plans being put on hold. dous: in the interim period, we still need to look for and deliver rapid testing? tim: of course, it's going to
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help. in the time that we have, let's assume that they have a rapid testing system that has the efficacy and reliability that they should have to do that. that should deal with a lot of the concerns that some countries have, but not all. a lot of countries will say that this virus will not manus test -- manifest itself between one and 14 days, irrespective of if you do testing before you travel. that is kind of becoming a as thebit pase now societal pressures on getting air travel going again are becoming more imperative. manus: do you think there will be more joined up government response to rapid testing in the interim period? tim: i am not sure. i am really not sure. may be in the western world, i don't know about the other parts of the world. manus: would you consider those kind of measures at emirates?
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tim: i think it is early days now for us to make any particular position on that. why do i say that? one, it is likely that the countries themselves will decide on requirements of entry into their own countries. that will remove the need for airlines to say you have to have it or not. and that will require people who do not have vaccines, perhaps when they enter a country, they will quarantine for 14 days. they will have to make the choice if they want to do that or not. secondly, the global governments have now got to come together and understand how they are going to do this. i am sure they will. there are different types of vaccines. everybody has got to come to the
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table and decide how they are going to proceed. not so much that airlines are the cruise companies or hotels or restaurants, it's all about how the governments go about the protocols. manus: do you see fast evolution of an immunity passport, a digital immunity passport? tim: we already see things like yellow fever vaccination's, which you have to have an certain segments of the travel business. i can see something like that coming along. whether it is the digital one or other forms, i don't know. the important thing is the acceptability by the countries in which people enter, that is what's going to drive it. if they come together with some type of digital passport, even a piece of paper which cannot be likes -- think something like that will happen. manus: let's turn to the business.
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the company received $2 billion from the dubai government at the height of the crisis. every national airline has had help. do you need more cash from the government and have you asked for more cash? tim: i think the government will do what it takes to support the airline. that is clear and present. you said we've already had some. it is looking fairly optimistic now with regard to 2021. do we need to have more input from the government? possibly, but not that much. we honestly believe that in the second quarter of next year, we will be cash positive again and growing our business, especially with this vaccine rolling out. annmarie: emirates president tim clark speaking exclusively to manus cranny. interesting what he has to say. they will do whatever it takes to support the airline. tim clark at the moment reminding me of what mario draghi had to say about
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♪ good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." today, u.k. chancellor rishi sunak is set to announce 4.3 billion pounds of new funding to help the unemployed get back to work. that is as he unveils budgets for government departments later today. increaseo expected to spending on infrastructure and public services in an attempt to revive the economy. joining us now is rory bateman, global head of equities at
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schroders. i want to quickly get your thoughts on what rishi sunak plans to do today. do you think this could help whet the appetite of investors to come back into the very unloved u.k. equity market? rory: good morning. thanks for having me. absolutely. i think what sunak is going to be doing is we cannot -- think, we cannot steer the economy on course if there is not -- you mentioned infrastructure. we are anticipating quite a bit actually. annmarie: i also want to talk about your report. listing in london, what your fund wants to do, has not been easy for many this year. why do you think the timing is good right now for schroders to succeed? rory: well, we think with our british opportunities -- we think this is a once in a
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generation opportunity to invest in u.k. growth companies at really attractive valuations. these valuations are driven by where we are with the pandemic and the space, the u.k. market. clearly, it is an unloved market , has underperformed the global market by about 20% this year. where thinking right now is a great opportunity. there is a lot of talk right now around the u.k., obviously with a vaccine, but more importantly, brexit. we can see that a clarity over brexit will emerge in the coming months. that we think is going to be really positive for u.k. markets. annmarie: you are also going to be targeting 50% of the fund towards public companies, the other 50% towards private companies. what type of companies across the board are you targeting? what kind of sectors? rory: that's right.
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that's why this is such a highly differentiated opposition -- proposition. we are targeting 50-50 public-private. we do not care what the capital structure is. we want to create a competitive situation between the public and a private side. it's going to be diverse. we have got lots of opportunities across the market. we will not be investing in the same stocks or tobacco or fossil fuels. we really want to look across the market. we've got a lot of opportunities. on the private side, it is slightly more nuanced. we've got a bias towards health care and technology. my colleague has a focus on health care and technology for the last 15 years or so, so that's a really relationship driven business and there will be a slight skew on the private side. annmarie: you caught my attention say you will not go into fossil fuel companies.
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they are so heavily weighted on the ftse index. when you consider investing in oil and gas companies that have mapped out an energy transition plan? rory: to be clear, this fund is going to be focusing on equity market values at over 50 billion 2 billion.on to we are very focused on esg and we want the fund to be sustainable. that's the number one priority at schroders overall. this is a very highly sustainable fund. we will be doing energy transition stocks as well, subject to them meeting the criteria. i want to understand as well from you the ecb is potentially going to be lifting that dividend ban ion banks. do you see a higher prospect for
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u.k. banks in the coming year? generally, iore think this situation in the u.k. were possibly there has been an over distribution of capital from companies in the u.k. my sense is that what we really need now and a critical feature of this fund is really to focus on fresh equity, getting fresh equity into businesses so they can perform in the best way possible and maximize growth potential. yes, dividends are important. the focus of this fund is fresh equity, enabling companies to maximize growth potential. it is what the americans do brilliantly. this is what this fund is really about, getting fresh equities into companies so they can maximize growth attentional through the pandemic and beyond. strategists will be pointing to a higher sterling rate if there is a trade
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agreement by the end of the year. do think that will pour some appetites on investor for u.k. equity if we are to see a rising pound? rory: on the contrary, a rising pound is synonymous with some sort of brexit resolution, some sort of deal. international investors really love bridge companies. they see them as entrepreneurial, very innovative and the way they run their companies. they've got a great regulation system. from my perspective, a stronger pound, more confidence in the u.k. economy will help our domestic businesses and a lot of features around british domestic businesses. i think international investors, that will be seen as a sign of confidence and that will bring the international investor particularly into these domestic plays. calling: rory bateman it a once in a generation opportunity for u.k. equities.
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thank you so much for your time. he is the global head of equities that schroders. you can catch rishi sunak's spending review live on bloomberg at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time. coming up, missed connection. south africa's finance minister once again questions his own bailout of the country's own troubled state owned airline. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ annmarie: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am annmarie hordern in london. a quick glance at what is coming up today. the ecb publishes its financial stability review, giving us a readout on the mountain of corporate debt wrought on by the pandemic. in the united kingdom, chancellor rishi sunak will unveil the government's spending
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plan for the next year, including a 4.3 billion pounds to help get the unemployed back to work. over in the states, a day packed with economic data, including a second reading of third-quarter gdp. let's carry on with the airlines team this morning. we have been talking about south africa's finance minister questioning the need for the state ownedoubled carrier. it has not flown a commercial flight since the start of the country's coronavirus lockdown. manus cranny spoke to him about his doubts and whether it undermines the 10.5 alien rand bailout -- 10.5 billion rand bailout he agreed to. >> do we need airlines in the markets to operate? they don't have to be national, but they can be business enterprises that function. my view is that, look at british airways, look at airlines in
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, don't, look at airlines compare us to the emirates, which is funded by, you know, windfall profits from oil companies and so on. don't look at that. in south africa, the market is going to clear. thehat market clears with participation of airways, so be it. manus: i was asking the question of the president, i speak to you a year later, 484 billion. we have talked and talked and talked. minister, how and what exactly is the plan to deal with the debt? >> well, there are a number of debt. which are about the bondsof all, not all the
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are redeemable on the same date. some have long maturities, medium maturities and so on. don't look at the number and think that -- manus: 484 billion, minister. >> yes. it is spread out over a number of years. when a issue is, particular bond matures come what is going to be done to redeem it? most of the bonds actually are held by the public investment cooperation and the banks and so on. treasury is eskom working on this matter together with the national treasury to that we move out the bonds as they mature. annmarie: i am happy to say the man of the hour is back. manus cranny has been very busy over the last 14 hours.
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there he was speaking with south africa's finance minister at the bloomberg capital markets virtual event. this morning, he has also been speaking exclusively to emirates president tim clark. i am quite jealous of that view you had. what is your take away from speaking to both of them? i love what he said, do not compare us to the emirates. it does not seem like the south africans have that kind of capital. manus: they do not. it was a very long ranging conversation. it's out on twitter, shameless plug, on bloomberg.com. what he emphasizes is the public investment fund may welcome and help out eskom. that was news. when i pushed him about what he was doing on twitter for 24 hours, he went on to break a bit of news that there might be an equity offering in the pipeline on the national airline. it was a very long ranging
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conversation. i challenged him about the possibility of a debt crisis. that was full and plentiful. it's nice to go out and do an interview. here, this is what we do. you have to turn on, you wear this and then they let you do the interview. annmarie: safety first. safety obviously forefront as well for the airline industry. you and i talked about getting back to traveling to be able to go home and visit our families. tim clark, what was his mood like in terms of getting back to normal? know, what i think, you natural bullishness from tim. the core of his message was, you're going to get this vaccine in the second half of next year. that takes you to flattish demand by the end of the year. he hopes to have all of his a-38 0's back in the air by the first quarter of 2022.
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she does not think he needs a lot of -- a lot more money from the government. they are going to take another delivery of two a-380's. premium to the economy and it is coming from those two airlines. no quotes from tim. it has been a busy 24 hours. annmarie: it certainly has. i was waiting to hear whether or not he was going to say that that jab is going to be a necessity. how can an airline mandate a vaccine? that really comes down to governments. we are an hour away from the open. quick look at where we trade in the futures market this morning. we are coming down on that momentum. yesterday, the dow crashing above 30,000. s&p another all-time high. s&p 500 futures this morning relatively flat and the dax this
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now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. >> good morning. welcome to the european open. i'm anna edwards. global equities are on track for a record month after the s&p hits an all-time high. european futures suggest the optimism is set to continue. europe divergence. emmanuel macron says he will start lifting france's lockdown from saturday, but chancellor angela merkel opposes tightening
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