francine: hey november to remember for the markets. the dow hit 30,000 for the first time. it is far from a wyatt thanksgiving period. -- quiet thanksgiving period . steveary of the treasury mnuchin, his successor will need approval. speculation grows over repayment. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london.

there is quite a lot going on in the markets mainly because of the threshold that markets crossed yesterday. let's have a look at what that means for european stocks and even the global stocks rally pausing. we did have the best monthly gain in three decades. investors awaiting a lot of economic indicators that could support the. rally in risk assets. . we have consumer confidence and of course personal income. we did have a gauge of asia pacific shares gaining. above $45 alding barrel, and i also wanted to show you bitcoin and a second, because they were also, you know, within a sliver of a record high for bitcoin. at 19,130. it now let's get to the bloomberg first word news in london with leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: good morning, francine.

france will gradually start using its lockdown from sunday. museums will follow suit from december 15, but restaurants will remain closed. president emmanuel macron says vaccinations could start at the end of december or in early january. meanwhile, german chancellor angela merkel wants to tighten the country's coronavirus restrictions, and set the stage for another round of 10 stocks for regional leaders. she has called for more lenient -- who have called for more lenient measures. she was to bring a new measures for shops and schools in virus hotspots. last night, president-elect joe biden officially announced his policy team, led by antony blinken as secretary of state. after four tumultuous years after president trump. biden: it is a

team that will keep our country safe and secure. it is a team that reflects the fact that america is back, ready to lead the world, not retreat from it, ready to sit at the head of the table, ready to confront our adversaries and not reject our allies. ready to stand up for values. leigh-ann: treasury secretary steven mnuchin and is leaving $40 billion jan the reach of his successor, janet yellen, putting it into a fund that requires congressional approval. democrats are criticizing the move, with one calling it illegally. the treasury reflects that analysis. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg @quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much.

now, another record rally yesterday, on promise of a vaccine in a peaceful presidential transition sent stocks soaring above 30,000 for the first time. here is a look at, you know, exactly what happened with the rally, is our dani burger. dani, hi. dani: hi, francine. i feel like it was just forerday i was at the dow the s&p hitting 20,000. they are looking extremely bearish today. one of the remarkable things we have seen into the rally into new records is the amount of volume, the amount of action underneath those headline numbers. shares traded hands over the past few days. why is this volume remarkable? because it is the week of thanksgiving, it is a holiday week. usually we see traders disappear from the market, but they have

not yet. in fact, this period 72% higher than the volume past year. perhaps the vaccine headlines, presidential transition, all of that boiling up all of this optimism to the surface pushing to new highs, francine. dani, what role will retail traders have in this rally? dani: retail is participating, and what they are per dissipating in are some of the more unloved stocks as well we saw bank of america merrill report online brokerage outages yesterday, francine, not even the infrastructure can keep up with the exuberance we have seen. retail investors have generally been crushing it, they have gained 85% so far this year, prototyping the hedge fund, doing better than an s&p 500 the so far this year. it is clear that retail has a

big part in this, there i say, perhaps even leading that rally, especially on the day we have bitcoin doing what it does, definitely a retail flare. that is where we get the record gains in francine: the dow, francine. francine:thank you so much. dani burger with the latest on oves.of these equity m let's get more with our mark kudlow, our bloomberg live manager. what do you do with inflation in this environment? mark: i think the fact that this rally has been built on the fact that we will have deeply negative real yields for a very long time to come, and if we go in and inflation spike, while they might stay negative in real terms, we have to change our models of future cash flows, and that might change the equations on some of these equity decisions and therefore make it

a harder investment environment i am more worried about the short-term, though. while we see this general euphoria in assets, we see a surge in global stocks. it is interesting the s&p 500 did not break its pfizer vaccine highs two weeks ago, despite the fact that we have had wave after wave of new good vaccine news, generally a lot of good news and euphoria elsewhere, get futures have not broken that hi, intraday cash market did not break, either, and asia in today's sector is welcome aware as well, where asian stocks drifted to a new lope your we will see a massive rebalancing in the next few days, and a low liquidity environment, though, as dani points out, we have not had low liquidity for a while. francine: so, mark, what are you telling me? that we could see a correction,

because there is not enough to support this rally? mark: i think the next few days are worrying a. it does not mean there will be a big collapse. we are expecting tens of billions of selling in the next four or five days on a rebalancing in u.s. stocks at a time when the price action has not been particularly exuberant, despite several vaccine announcements. we have not broken the intraday high from november 9. already, though, the price action in u.s. stocks is slightly worrying. now we know we have rebalancing, this idea that is meant to be harder here, we know that the virus numbers continue to get worse. we are getting the story overnight that many u.s. homeowners are expected to get affected by the end of the year, at the exact same time that they are expected to lose unemployment benefits, so therefore, it is not looking great for u.s. stocks in the short-term. dramatic thishow is going to be, but i think it is a downside move rather than

an upside move. francine: is that when risk assets price inflation, or will that be at 22 anyone story, mark? mark: i think the inflation story is definitely a 2021 story. there will be some stimulus packages that will come through from the u.s. that will help some of the commodities component, but i think we will kind of see that inflation threat come into at least a certain extent last year -- next year, partially because we have not had much for so long, but i am not worried about inflation this side of christmas. francine: what are you expecting on stimulus? what are the pressure points that we could see? is it data today, or is it something else? mark: well, i do think if we get stock correction, and there is a risk given the complacency, the fact that investment is refocused on the top side, there is a chance it could get a

little bit messy in the short-term, and that would, of course, raise the pressure on the stimulus. the other thing to watch on the stimulus argument is i think investors are very much complacent around the idea that whatever the final senate composition in the u.s. will be, that it will support a very large stimulus package in the u.s. finalt whatever the senate composition will become a will also stop biden imposing some of those tax and regulatory plans. i think there is a slight the economy here between how investors are thinking about the two issues that both hinge on the same thing -- what is a final composition of the senate? i think the stimulus will stay interesting pair we also want to watch down in georgia, but we will probably see markets have another swing in the next few weeks. francine: mark, thank you so much. bloombergre there, mliv managing editor.

this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from saturday morning, several changes will become reality. extent thehat weight has been long and how much this contributes to our daily lives, our city centers, town centers, and therefore, our shops can reopen and home service can restart, but with a strict, tough protocol. that was the french president, emmanuel macron,

announcing a gradual easing of the lockdown before christmas. now let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash, here's leigh-ann gerrans. hi, leigh-ann. leigh-ann: hi, francine. in thiindustry group -- could lose $50 billion between this year and next, more than predicted back in june. the vaccination program is taking time to revise a travel demand. president tim cox says rapid testing will only deal with some of the concerns about travel. tim: of course it is going to help. let's assume they have a rapid testing system that has efficacy and a reliability that they should have to do that. that should deal with a lot of the concerns that some countries have, but not all. a startup should be chasing new funding that could double its valuation. sources tell bloomberg a new round could add up to more than

$70 billion or even as high as $100 billion. and compete with paypal others and look for more shoppers online here finally, bitcoin mania is that, retailers piling into the crypto currency, driving prices to all-time highs. it is now more than 40% in november alone, a level not seen since 2017. the frenzy is coins. spreading to other and that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? francine: leigh-ann, thank you so much. let's take a look at what is coming up today. 9:30 a.m. u.k. time, the ecb publishes its financial stability view. in the u.k., the chancellor, sunaksue not -- rishi will announce a package to get employees back to work.

airlines, and to south africa's finance minister theonce again questioned need for th saving the troubled airliner. manus cranny spoke to tito mboweni about the bailout he agreed to less than a month ago. mboweni: we need it in order for the markets to operate. my view is that, look at british airlines ink at ireland, look at airlines anywhere else. emirates,ifference is which is, you know, funded by, you know, when fall, profits

don't look at that. the market is going to clear, and if that market clears, with the participation, so be it. manus: i was asking the question of the president, the debt, i speak to minister, hower, and what exactly is the plan to deal with debt? mr. mboweni: well, there are a number of issues about the debt. first of all, they are not all redeemable on the same day. low maturitiese and so on, so don't look at the number that says may be $400 billion or so and think that -- 484 billion mr. mboweni:

yes, it is not due tomorrow, it is spread out over a number of years. the key issue is when a particular bond matures, what is going to be done? actually,o the world, i had investors published and the banks and so on, and i think it is working on this market better with the next administration, and south africa, to make sure they smooth it out as they mature. francine: that was the south african finance minister, tito mboweni, speaking to our manus cranny. somes of hsbc have surged 15% from the five-year low at the end of september. we will focus on dividends and the banking sector next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am francine lacqua here in london. paying dividends. the bank's stock have surged more than 40% from its lows. meanwhile, officials say banks may be able to resume dividend payments next year if

their balance sheets are strong. let's get straight to the banking sector with jonathan, senior banking analyst at bloomberg. one-off? is hsbc a jonathan: it is definitely not a one-off. it is a special case, because they have a very large hong that paid off when they could not pay dividends. when we think about sector and capital returns, hsbc is not one of the names that would immediately spring to mind as a way of claiming the capital return had been switched on. yes, we think the banks are strong enough, not just the bank capital return, it is also about a decent business plan and returning to profitability next year. they will be allowed come up to a point, probably with a para ratio limit, to begin to return capital. the ecb: jonathan,

also, we understand, is reportedly signaling that it could lift soon. jonathan: we expect that the ecb will say after more on a case-by-case basis, and definitely in conjunction with the domestic regular, banks that tick certain boxes will be able to resume. dmv come a very probable, lloyds in the u.k. is running a very large capital right now, and i think if the ecb doesn't come of this was will probably do it. the swedish are being quite cautious, but i cannot really see how you can say no, so i think you will probably get a sort of cautious return, a capital return on a case-by-case basis. don't expect the weakest banks to take advantage of capital relief that you have had over the past three months to start returning capital, but for the stronger banks, absolutely.

jonathan, overall, is there a danger of ecb faults and bad loans and a lagging time with what we are living in 2020? is it a bit dangerous to resume dividends? jonathan: well, not really, because we know about all this. the banks have been taking provisions for the standards for loans, whichhase 3 is when things do start to get that already. one question will be the extra stimulus. will it be enough to stop a very vicious spike in bad loans, in q1 and q2 of next year? if they got it wrong, the banks itld have to to switch off again. i suspect they will stay more focused on transitional, we will give you all the support we can, so for the strongest bank sectors, i think it is unlikely

that that gets derailed, but as i say, there are a few banks that will break even this year. this is not a free-for-all, everybody switches on the dividends. this is the strongest franchises. francine: yep, thank you, jonathan, jonathan tyce. senior bank to a analyst at berg intelligence. coming up, we will have plenty more on climate change and of course transitioning the economy, aiming for a zero. europe's largest gas pipeline company says it wants to hit in 2014.on emissions our conversation with -- 2048 hour conversation with the chief executive officer of snam is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

adapting. innovating. setting the course. but new ways of working demand a new type of network. one that's more than just fast. you need flexibility- to work from anywhere. and manage from everywhere. advanced technology. with serious security. and reliable coverage, nationwide.

forward-thinking enterprises, deserve forward-thinking solutions. and that's what we deliver. so bounce forward, with comcast business. francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance."

i'm francine lacqua, here in london. thee is a lot going on in market yesterday. the psychological threshold of 30,000 on the dow definitely means that the focus is firmly on the markets. let's get to first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. is relaxinghe u.k. coronavirus restrictions for christmas, allowing three households to meet indoors. the christmas bubble will last from december 23 through december 27. doctors are raising concerns that this will lead to even more infections. the dose of the oxford astrazeneca vaccine that showed the highest level of effectiveness was tested in younger people, according to the head of the u.s. vaccine program , giving an initial half dose with the full dose, 90% effective. was done with only

62% effectiveness. the e.u. top diplomatic it is warming about -- warning about -- renewed tensions between eastern turkey and cyprus. foreign policy she says the blocks needed will tackle the issue at the upcoming december meeting. hong kong's leader, carrie lam, is vowing to continue strengthening ties with china. she used the annual policy speech to extend beijing's tightening grip. the aim is to restore confidence after another tumultuous year. one of her key economic policies on commercialty properties. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? much,ne: thank you so

leann. we are just getting some news out of the european central bank. this is the financial stability review, the ecb saying setting aside -- the bank is setting aside more loan provisions. we were just talking to jonathan tyce about that. the ecb also saying rising debt levels create risks in the longer term. this is something we have been watching out for very closely, but the timeline is extremely important because we can see defaults into next year as we have a vaccine and maybe there is less fiscal support. don't miss our interview on the financial stability report with the european central bank vice president. you can catch that at 12:30 p.m. london time on bloomberg tv. let's turn to the future of europe's largest cap pipeline company. netmbitious goal to set zero emissions by 2040, euros.ng 7.4 billion

am -- joining us this morning is marco alvera, the .hief executive of snam s you have been one of the first people that care about climate change as a transition. is covid an opportunity to do some of the things more quickly than you thought 12 months ago? marco: yes, good to see you. it has accelerated the pace at which companies have adopted a concrete net zero target. we have announced hours today in we think it is the first the industry to get there 10 years ahead of europe, in 2040. but as countries get to net zero, this triggers what we call a net zero super cycle that can toch 100 trillion dollars

150 trillion dollars of investments. it is probably the biggest challenges our generation to get to net zero. there is a lot of hurdles but there is opportunity for people like us who want to invest in the super cycle. francine: how do you intend to get there? marco: we intend to get to net our emissionsng significantly. cut our co2 equivalent to emissions by 2030. we are the first of the world to invest in dual fuel stations, so the stations now burning natural gas will be able to use electricity as well. so it is equivalent to building thousands of electric hybrid cars in the industry. we see this as a trend that will stand in the industry in the future as a hybrid model where molecules and electrons work together. have beeni know you

very big on hydrogen. you have written a book on hydrogen, written several books on hydrogen, but how much will hydrogen make part of our energy demand in europe in 2025, in 2030, and in 2050? marco: 25 negligible, 2030 -- the important things to look at 2050. we get to the fully decarbonized outlook. green gases of hydrogen will account for 25% of the global energy mix. we are starting essentially from scratch. the good news is we can use existing natural gas infrastructure where they are available. give me a sense of what happens with bio methane.

is it just a different kind of market? marco: it is a different market because bio methane is solving a problem. bio methane is solving a problem of suburban waste, agricultural waste. it is a way of turning waste into completely renewable energy. i think all of the agricultural waste will turn into bio methane. but as the cost of hydrogen falls, he hydrogen made from solar and wind will be cheaper than bio methane. bio methane is different by the waste that we have, solves that problem. hydrogen is a way of bringing solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy to our homes, our trucks, our factories. francine: could you give me a sense on hydrogen, the demand in europe? you talk about italian numbers. are they reflective of what could happen at european levels? some veryope has set

ambitious goals, so we think that globally in europe, and in italy, the long-term potential for hydrogen is between 20% and 25% of the primary energy mix. mix is made upat of oil, coal, and natural gas. will bessil molecules transformed into green molecules with hydrogen making up about 25 percent. electricity will make up around be, and the other 25% will biofuels, bio methane, and synthetic molecules. marco, how are you expecting the overall gas market to perform in 2021 in europe? are we going to see a big pickup because of a pickup in activity after the lockdowns of 2020? marco: the energy markets are rebounding. we saw oil yesterday, gas is

doing well, prices are up, demand is up. gas has a benefit compared to oil, because if we look at the cost abatement curve, it is really cheap. it is cheaper now to drive truck inas in a diesel most countries around the world. we are bullish on gas demand in 2021 and in the medium to long-term. over the very long-term, natural gas itself will be replaced by hydrogen. but until 2030, 20 40, there is a robust demand growth from using gas in heavy transport. francine: are we going to see consolidation in your industry? some of your peers have been really inquisitive. what does it mean for us now? marco: we have been focused on buying small companies and bolt on acquisitions. we have startups that have started from scratch and are very well positioned, and we have announced this morning we target over 150 million of ebita in 2024 just from the startups.

so we don't like the acquisitions. we think the utility space, there is not a lot of synergies because the assets are where they are. you add assets, there is not a lot of synergy. i don't see a lot of consolation. -- consolidation. what i do see is a lot more collaboration. using the word major, partnership yesterday, i think the model we are going for is where the opportunities will look more like the oil companies, where there is a greater degree of partnership and collaboration in the industry. as i said, the challenge is huge, and we need to join forces to get there. francine: may be a final question. in 2021 lng perform compared to piped gas? marco: i think lng is very strong. big countries that we talk to and that we work in like china and india, as they look at their

important balance, they notice cheaperorting lng is than importing diesel. so it is a big opportunity to switch from diesel to lng when it comes francine: to heavy transport. -- when it comes to heavy transport. francine: marco, thank you so much. alvera, i want to show your book for kids, but it is in the lacqua library. despite the vaccine optimism, it is going to be a while until jebel reaches its previous altitude. our interview is a little bit -- until travel reaches its previous altitude. our interviews a little bit later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg etf iq europe." -- this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. let's get to the bloomberg business flash with leigh-ann gerrans. resumenn: hsbc will soon paying dividends. tuesday goldman sachs advised they are up 50% from a 25 year low at the end of september. dell and hp are both getting a boost from the pandemic. they have reported quarterly results that topped estimates. listed by customers upgrading their computers to and from home , dell shares climbed nearly 3% over the three months, with hp shipping a record 19 million pcs over the same period. gap is reporting weakness at its namesake brand and banana republic that says old navy

helped sales jumped more than expected. the retailer is closing poor performing stores to focus on its online offerings. the company still is not providing long-term guidance. by to uncertainty created the coronavirus pandemic. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine? thank you so much, leann. treasury secretary steven mnuchin plans to move 450 $5 billion in unspent stimulus into willcount his successor need congressional approval to use. that may mean a tricky start for janet yellen, biden's presumed pick for the job. his comment from over the years. >> we need support for the economy, both for monetary and fiscal policy, and monetary policy has already done a huge amount. i strongly believe central banks need to be independent and need to do everything they can.

i do see the sentiment and the inh is now going very much the direction of the regulation, reducing buffers, reducing authorities, and i am worried about where this is going, appropriately designed tax reform could have a favorable effect on productivity. it obviously depends on the details of what you do. we need public policy oriented toward making the big difference on climate change, a very efficient way to price carbon the mind head,to thatell, where energy creates carbon emissions enters the economy. tariffs may make good more -- may make goods more

competitive, the differences in currency will offset that. let me be clear, i do think the united states has real issues in terms of its trade relations with china. francine: a roundup of some of the things janet yellen has said over the last 12 months. joining us to discuss the latest ndc, our senior writer stephanie baker. ray to have you on the program as always. what is steven mnuchin trying to achieve with this? he is saying is legally mandated under the cares act, that the money expires and it should be returned. democrats have rejected that, saying essentially that it is yet another move by the outgoing trump to box biden in an limit his ability to maneuver. it is kind of incredible that it is happening at this point where there is such desperate need for

stimulus package to deal with the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. desperate need for money to be injected into the economy to help struggling businesses, unemployed, people who have lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic. and janet yellen is going to face an unprecedented crisis coming in. arguably as big as the 2008 financial crisis, possibly even the great depression. unlike obama when he came in and 2008, had a democrat-controlled congress, it looks like we will have divided government, so she will have to work incredibly togetherry to pull different sides to come up with a comprehensive package to get the economy back on track. experienced.ibly she had some degree of bipartisan support, so hopefully that will help her.

but the challenge facing her is enormous. what is the latest on president-elect biden's cabinet picks? marco: he has for -- stephanie: he has focused on foreign policy and national security with the first crop of nominations, and it is an incredibly diverse group. very experienced, some people have called it -- that they are dominated by career politicians, but really huge depth of experience across the board. women first in various posts

diverse range of candidates, including the first immigrant to keep an american to run homeland security, who will be in charge of immigration policy, which i think is a really strong signal as to where biden is going. and i think the overall message from his crop of nominees is that america will be pursuing a sort of coalition building on the international stage that trumps the policy of america first that is behind us, that will pursue a united international front on a range of global challenges from climate change to iran to china, and i think it is a real sign of the change of attacks that biden will take internationally. baker withtephanie the latest on the u.s. transition. coming up, the head of the international airlines lobby group says that despite the vaccine, optimism, there is going to be -- it is going to be a while until travel demand

reaches its previous altitude. our interview is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we were put on a list of u.k.

countries that didn't have to grant when they arrived. that has triggered an enormous increase in a loss in bookings, particularly in december, through christmas and new year, in all counts. that is not to say -- business class is very strong, but don't forget, our business class is a little bit of a --nomer in the sense that there is a sense that business is traveling business class largely come and they are not. at the moment, in the holiday period, they are primarily leisure. >> but if we take it in terms of benchmarks, you have three airports back in march of 2019. when do you see getting back to that?

tim: if you're talking by the end of next year, we will not get back to all of the flights that we had. birmingham -- all of those we tend -- we plan to put back. bubbles in ther pipeline? tim: not that we are aware of. we will see what happens. manus: space is a premium. space and space around me is a premium. next year you have two deliver a premium economy cabin, are those plans afoot? receiving later in december a premium -- which has a premium economy cabin. network was put on ice because of what happened. we will restart that in the course of 2021. manus: and what scale can you get to? you have two coming by the end

of the year. tim: actually three? i would say we have to get a critical mass of aircraft that we can make a meaningful use of those, but i would say by the middle of next year we will roll it out, hopefully start it on certain routes. by the end of next year. manus: you talk about business class being full with different types of people. i was reading bill gates. he said post-covid we are going to see at least a 50% of operations in real business class, i.e. i've got to do a meeting, i've got to do a schedule. that kind of business class is going to drop precipitously. are you sure that perhaps evaporation -- what is your worst-case scenario on that kind of business? tim: i do not share that view at all. i think i'm on record as saying that it is likely that as a result of what has happened that business will actually increase, and all the segments will return and with greater volumes than we have experienced before.

i am not in that school at all. the emirates president , tim clark, on the way forward for the industry. yesterday was a big day for the markets, the dow crossing the 30,000 threshold. that is quite a big deal psychologically. global stocks, the rally is easing somewhat. if you look at europe, they are down a touch. investors are awaiting a lot of economic indicators that could support the rally or not. i'm also looking at bitcoin. we will have plenty more from bitcoin shortly. later on, our conversation with the ecb vice president. this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,

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for the markets. the dow crosses 30,000 for the first time. it's far from a quiet thanksgiving period. transition troubles at the treasury. mnuchin plans to place nearly $500 billion in unspent stimulus cash into an account his successor will need congressional approval to use. and hsbc's turnaround picks up speed. the bank's shares rise as speculation grows around a return to dividend payments. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. we look at the markets, we also look at what the ecb put out in its financial stability report just moments ago, and we have an interview with the vice aboutent of lynn door in an hour from now. he warned of bed provisions going forward, so there is a whole question of dividends in 2021. ," there is only one story -- tom: there is only one story in america, and that is