>> the nightmare scenario for markets would be if the unemployment rate would begin to go higher. >> even before the pandemic, we had a lot of frailties. >> i think we will have weathered the storm, and i hope the worst will be over by next summer. >> the backend of 2021 could be more precarious. >> we may experience a bit of a dip. >> it isn't as much a risk of a double-dip. it is a risk that we extend the rebound. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market unchanged on the session. on the month, just wow, what a melt up. tom: it is a melt up in the certain areas that were way

behind, but what is important is the symbols along the way, and the number one symbol is the most unloved bull market since time began. you do measure the wall of cash on the sideline. how does that feel this dow 30,000 morning? left out,very lonely, isolated, and i imagine some of it has capitulated. we talked about a tug-of-war at the start of this month when we got deposited vaccine news. overwhelmingly now, this market is looking through the near-term risks into year end. i had a conversation with someone who suggested we could get a negative payroll sprint -- negative payrolls print for the next couple of months. it is an outlier call, but deteriorating data is consensus, and here we are running straight through it. tom: maybe it is a biden administration, the fed coming on, stimulus coming on. you keep talking about the russell 2000, up 11% year to

date, and it has been a moonshot the last number of weeks. the nasdaq 100 lagging recently, up 34% year to date. 500 up 12.5%.&p for you, we do the standard & poor's to 0.1%. jonathan: thanks a lot, tom. i like my indexes market cap waited, but we can talk about that another time. let's talk about the month to date figures. energy is up almost 40%. tom: upper merits -- abramowicz is all over that. it is a catch up trade. you look at any kind of regression, and all of this is a reversion almost to the mean, even in the bank stocks. are up.they jp morgan is up 24%, whatever it is, and november. t is just getting back to

towards where the trend was. jonathan: there's a night layer -- there's an outlier here. not in foreign-exchange. it is an sovereign fixed income, treasuries not spitting the same way. lisa: is it because longer-term growth is not going to pick up, or because the federal reserve comes in and extends the duration of their purchases? it goes back to this question of reality versus future hope. you keep talking about this. today we are going to get a data dump. it is going to be a tremendous slew of figures about the bleakness of the pandemic worsening. u.s. initial jobless claims, third-quarter gdp, the pce report looking at personal incomes, as well as expenditures, durable goods orders. all of this should give a sense of a slowing recovery. will anyone care? probably not. they are already expecting this.

we will get the november consumer sentiment survey, and this follows yesterday, the sentiment survey out of the conference board, which showed the biggest deterioration in three months in consumer sentiment. did anyone care? no they did not. my question is, are they going to confirm the belief baked into the markets that they will extend the duration of their bond purchases at the meeting next month? will it matter? why would they do that? we are not seeing bond yields rise, and yet they want to give the impression that they will support asset prices with anything they have. that seems to be the consensus as we head into a pretty dire winter couple of months. jonathan: chicken and egg, lisa. maybe that is why the long end is not getting a lift, because people think the fed will be stepping in. here's your thanksgiving eve price action. we shape up as follows on the s&p 500. we pull back in a very muted way, down by not even one

quarter of a point. euro-dollar, $1.19, just can't keep it. $1.1864. the dollar weakness you are seeing is elsewhere, captured nicely on the pbx why. treasury -- on the bbxy. treasury yields come in about a point. copper at the close yesterday, a june 2018 hi. you had this night lift -- june 2018 high. you had this nice lift in the commodity market. tom: jp morgan on fx today, strong yen is there call into the 90's. jonathan: let's get to our guest, julian emanuel, btig chief equity and derivatives strategist. not all equity highs are made the same. can you walk me through the internals here? the market breadth, the

participation? is this healthier, so to speak? julian: it is, jon. if you go back and pull out the history of any long-duration bull market, and we do believe that the bottom in march was the beginning of a longer duration bull market, you will always see a period about performance from the laggards. the small caps, the financials, especially the financials, the verycyclical elements evocative of midcycle action. it is also why we are seeing breakouts in japan we haven't seen for more than a decade. relative strength in europe. the rally is broadening. it doesn't mean that tech underperformance can't hold the larger indices like the s&p 500 back, which is why you see new highs in the dow and the russell 2000, not the nasdaq. but again, what is different about this cycle, we've never

had a one quarter recession where gdp was down over 30%. 12 tothink that the next 24 months are going to be more smooth from an economic perspective, the market may be a little but i had of itself in pricing and that kind of good news -- a little bit ahead of itself in pricing and that kind of good news. tom: what is the price to sales ratio? i saw the mccormick take out of some hot sauce. ferro puts it on everything. ferro puts it on his fish and chips. mccormick bought him out yesterday at eight times sales. what does the price to sales ratio look like in this great bull market? frank's, byids love the way. that is their preferred hot sauce. it is extorted nearly hi, and these are the numbers -- it is extorted nearly hi, and these are the numbers.

all of these numbers are uncomfortably high, but again, we have to step back and realize it is all within the context of the 10 year yield that simply will not budge. lisa: i will just say, you said frank's was the preferred hot sauce. i would argue that tallulah, the brand -- argue that show lula -- , the brandchalulah that mccormick but yesterday, is better. this is turning into the shopping network. but the lack of participation jon was talking about of the bond market in the euphoria we are seeing in certain pockets of is thisty markets, indication that the central bank is putting their thumb on all bond yields indefinitely? julian: there's no question about that, particularly when using about europe. they have been more forthright

on full on monetary stimulus. obviously the fed is behind the markets. our question is, we are not so sure they are going to extend the purchases and maturities because frankly, when you look perspective from a of an ever exploding budget borrowings,massive it may not make a lot of sense to suppress longer-term maturities because that is where you risk a run on an already weakening dollar potentially. jonathan: sunday morning, i was doing the sunday morning routine, getting ready for work. tom: getting ready for the tots. jonathan: getting ready for the games on the tv. then i had an email in the inbox from btig and julian emanuel. i open it up and read it. not everyone gets read. bitcoin comes of age. it was not what i was expecting. allare we getting

up in arms about bitcoin right now? julian: bitcoin is actually a manifestation of all of the activity we have seen these last several months. it is a search for diversification in a world where it is entirely clear that since that peak in september, investing in five large cap technology stocks is not necessarily the way forward. as the cycle gets to this point where people are looking elsewhere for diversification, particularly if those bond yields are ticking higher -- tom: you are killing me, julian. [laughter] come on. what is the constraint on the pool of bitcoin? mike mcglone, matt miller, everyone is telling me this is the currency equivalent with some constraint on size. do you buy that?

isn't there going to be pressured to expand the underlying denominator of bitcoin? julian: well, you can technically do it, but frankly, the transaction issue is one of the headwinds, but we do think these types of things are going ofbe subsumed by the logic the fact that you are depreciating the u.s. currency by expanding the debt, interest rates, the fed has said we are not going negative, so there is a constraint on the 60/40 investment for for leo -- investment portfolio. particularly when you've got a thatation of investors bid nasdaq options off in july and august and have a 40 year investment horizons, and may not have checking accounts, that is where the demand is coming from. jonathan: you've been at home with the kids too long, reading those blogs that lisa reads. [laughter] i know what's been going on.

julian, it is great to catch up. to: jon, he is going to have be up earlier to be on with matt miller in berlin. jonathan: that's true. when matt gets back from paternity leave, we should line that up. talking bitcoin with matt miller. tom: matt is on what? jonathan: looking out for his baby, tom. lisa: baby. jonathan: you know, you take time off. lisa: he's just done. [laughter] tom: can we get some cholula? i need some cholula two-putt to putis -- some cholula in this. and where's my celery stick? jonathan: on this thanksgiving stick, enjoy the holidays -- on this thanksgiving eve, enjoy the holidays. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. to changewants

the white house slogan from america first to america is back. he introduced the plan of policy -- the team of policy advisers he plans to nominate. u.s. health officials are working on guidance to shorten the 14 day quarantine period if they are exposed to the coronavirus. officials are starting to see more evidence that suggests people could spend less time and quarantine as long as they test negative for the virus. shortening quarantine times could mean more people comply. in hong kong, chief executive carrie lam has vowed to keep strengthening ties with china. lam used an annual policy address to defend beijing's tightening grip over the city and announced new plans to boost economic links with the mainland. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

♪

pres. trump: the stock market has just broken 30,000. never been broken, that number. that is a sacred number. nobody thought they would ever see it.

that is the ninth time since the beginning of 2020, and it is the 48th time that we have broken records during the trump i adminstration, and i just want to congratulate all of the people within the administration that works so hard. jonathan: unoriginal briefing from the president of the united states in the last 24 hours. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. for those that don't know how this works, typically if the president is going to make an address and a briefing like he did yesterday, you get a tomb in it warning right before he comes out. we got a two-minute warning about the press briefing, which lasted about as long as that clip lasted. a milestone that was celebrated by the administration, then he just walked straight back out of the room again. tom: it was odd, to say the least, and on we go staggering towards this thanksgiving, the holiday season, and into 2021 and a new administration. let's regroup right now.

we have important economic site 8:30. kevin cirilli joined us. outstanding onst the realities of small business and restaurants in the united kingdom. lisa has been wonderful about the challenges she has seen. kevin, i was thunderstruck by our president-elect yesterday with lester holt of nbc, where , talkingimply said about his childhood, how his father was crestfallen, i believe over health care. we are all framed by our childhoods. what is that going to be like for president biden? frequentlyink he is -- he has frequently invoked in autobiographical terms his upbringing in scranton, pennsylvania and how that really shaped his worldview.

i think be on that, he has also spoken in great lengths about his own experiences with personal grief. i mentioned this yesterday, but i do think it bears repeating on the people thanksgiving, to really look at the relationship he will have with senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, also overcame polio in his pre-formative years. i bring all of this up because yesterday i spoke with a source when viceto me that president joe biden needed to deal with congress, that was his job. that was who former president obama looks to to really be the dealmaker with congress. so as we head into what is likely going to be a contentious confirmation hearing for some of his cabinet secretary picks, that is an opportunity where mcconnell feels he has leverage, but also with regards to fiscal

stimulus, those are the pressing matters of the debate on the domestic front that will shape the next six months. tom: just to carry this forward, how alone is the president's republican party? kevin: i just spoke with a source before coming on air. goesrms of where the rnc in the next six months is being figured out virtually right now in real time. i think that the donor class is looking to see and assess their performance during the last cycle. they are looking at the diagnostics for this. they feel they made significant gains in the house of representatives. they were able to hold onto the senate, likely. they lost the executive branch. there is a sense that it wasn't the donor class that lost the executive branch, but the president's reelection team that lost the presidency.

as a result of that, a lot of those types of conversations are being had. jonathan: just to move things forward on the policy front, where are the talks on the fiscal front? who is leading them? kevin: right now, the back channel discussions are between leader mcconnell, and he is really having a significant driving framing of the debate. december 11 will be the continuing resolution deadline, and beyond that, whether or not they are able to pass a targeted relief bill by the end of the calendar year remains to be seen. yesterday we spoke with congresswoman haley stevens from detroit, who noted that in the heartland, look no further than republican-controlled north dakota, which has seen a significant uptick in covid-19 cases. the biggest unknown variable is whether republicans in states where there have been a significant uptick, and increased restrictions in the short-term regards to businesses

, whether that will drive some momentum forward for additional fiscal talks. lisa: i want to talk about targeted and what that means. i know one of the biggest sticking points was money to states and municipalities, and yet that seems to be a growing concern as places like new york city start to threaten layoffs if they don't get aid. where are we on that provision, given the pushback from republican leadership? kevin: first, they are a world away. in the short term, the issue with regards to 420 $6 billion that the federal reserve is having to return to outgoing treasury secretary steven mnuchin, who is putting this in a fund that will make it difficult for incoming treasury secretary janet yellen to be able to send to markets as a relief, that is $500 billion. the third point, and this is very in the weeds, but the financial markets in the business community like the idea of senate banking chair me --

senate banking committee chairman pat toomey as the caretaker chairman of the banking committee, but in this regard, he is going to have oversight over yellen, so to speak, and the issues pertaining to the treasury portfolio. as a result, republicans are sympathetic to the argument that outgoing treasury secretary mnuchin is making. tom: a one minute press conference yesterday. i saw you missed it because you were out at starbucks. kevin: for the record, i was on air. [laughter] tom: mr. pentz was on stage with mr. pent -- mr. pence was on stage with mr. trump. what kind of thanksgiving will the vice president have? kevin: i will have to ask, but i remove her when he was chosen for the ticket, and i asked what he was going to do, and he said he was getting pizza with his family. does senator john mccain have

any turkey frying tips he passed on that we should now? so thanksgiving in d.c. can be fun. maybe next year. tom: ben's chili bowl. kevin: yes. jonathan: good to hear from you, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. let's touch in on the market action after a record month for global equities and a record high on the dow, the s&p. the equal weight s&p 500 as well. it has been brutal if you have been in cash and set out this whole bull market. an hour from now, we get some economic data. jobless claims, and i think anticipated by many, the data in the united states of america, not necessarily jobless claims, but more broadly, going into year end could be softer. second look at gdp as well. the day before this

thanksgiving, this 8:30 moment is really important. jonathan: live on bloomberg tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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♪ jonathan: live on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get straight to the price action this morning. we pulled back just a little bit on the dow. throwing that in there for tom keene. this morning a little bit more defensive. the nasdaq positive by 0.4%, and the russell coming back by about 0.1%. the russell on the month up by more than 20%. the monthly moves have been amazing. in the commodity market, copper at multiyear highs coming into wednesday. we have seen the crude market advance. $45 onto beauty i. -- on wti. the copper-gold ratio in the mix as well. it is going the right way in terms of the view on growth, but something isn't participating.

switch up the board. -30's, the treasury market. we closed out october with a twos-tens spread of 70 basis points. we are closing out november with a spread of 71 basis points. . whetherion right now is this is for technical reasons, people believe the fed will step back in, or whether it is fundamental reasons, people in the treasury market just don't believe the hype going into 20 putting one. it needs in -- into 2021. it needs an explanation. tom: always out front of equity market in thinking time after time. you see the bond market get the expectations game right. there is a zombie bond market. talk about a global commodity market, a commodity bull market.

are is without question most important bond call of the week. ian lyngen is the bond strategist you don't know who has won every award out there. jaw-dropping 11 consecutive awards from the .cclaimed i i survey he is at bmo capital markets, and is absolutely must-read on wall street on bond strategy. thrilled he could be with us on this thanksgiving eve. you mentioned in your note about demand, price up, yields down. is there just insatiable demand overwhelming all analysis? ian: first of all, thank you very much for the kind words. i appreciate that. in terms of what is going on with the market at this moment, there is a giant natural buyer in treasuries, and that is the.

the fed is buying $80 billion -- that is the federal reserve. the fed is buying $80 billion in treasuries every month. it sounds like because of the politics playing out in washington, they are going to transition even more of that buying even further out the curve, focusing on sevens, tends, 20's and 30's rather than the very front end. i think that is what led to this disconnect that has a flatter curve, record high stock prices. tom: we have negative interest rates in europe, japan like a zombie market as well. there is a fiction to this. there is a constructed artifice to it. how fictional is your bond world? ian: i think the fiction is best described as have nominal yields, then you have real yields. the fed has made it very clear they are not dropping into negative policy rates. that puts an effective floor on

where nominal rates are going to be, but layer in inflation, and we see what is playing out in real yields space. tom: we have to stop the show. jon ferro, because of thanksgiving, do you not do a "real yield" this week? jonathan: we will do a segment in our earlier. tom: is it longer than the president's press conference yesterday? jonathan: i can confirm it will probably be longer than the president's press conference yesterday on the dow. [laughter] we will do something a little longer on the bond market. how much has your view changed in the last 10 years? ian: it has evolved. that is very clear. it really has become an issue of ,ot identifying the big trends the 100, 200 basis point trends, but figuring out how to trade a relatively narrow range with the

fed having much more control than they have in the past. a lot of that simply is a function of central banking generally, their push towards general communication. think about where we were in the early 1980's, for example. the fed didn't even tell us what they thought they were targeting for the daily fed funds rate. now they are telling us what the target is, a range on other sides, on either side, and what they expect it to be for the next three years. that takes a lot of volatility out, and it means we are playing arrange for the next several years. lisa: if market participants really believed inflation was going to pick up, that we were going to see growth going gangbusters next year as everybody gets their sea legs and goes flying around the world, you would probably see substantially higher yields, especially on the longer end. they haven't actually been tested yet. i am wondering at what point they lose control. to iner words, do we get

inflation outlook where it matters and they have to step in? or is this all just theory because the outlook isn't necessarily confirm that yields should be that much higher anyway? ian: the fed is going to be willing to look past what will probably be an initial uptick in inflation with the beginning of 2021 simply because there's year-over-year base effect, and it is not the type of inflation that the fed wants to see. the fed wants to see the unemployment rate low, which leads to wage inflation, which leads to true demand-side price inflation. that is not what we are most likely to see. we will most likely see asset price inflation, commodity price inflation, and as the dollar comes under even more pressure, asset price inflation. theird does not risk credibility by not responding to that. to a point, i think that does put upward pressure on the yield curve. we have seen a bit of a stephen

bias in the year ahead, and the fed -- a steepening bias in the year ahead, and the fed has plenty of time to respond given their new framework. they can retain credibility and stay sidelined. jonathan: are you saying that this new framework just reinforces their commitment to looser financial conditions? for all the talk about broadening out this recovery, lifting all boats, is it still just about financial conditions? ian: it does come down to lower for longer, and emphasis on financial conditions as a way of pushing down the unemployment rate. the fed targets are their objectives and projections for for 4% byoyment rate the end of 2023, that is a big change from what we used to think of as the neutral rate for unemployment. jonathan: so this market has got it right outside the bond market, and your mind?

ian: i would argue that the market is pricing in the realities of very low real yield environment for a very long time, and that is good for risk assets, good for consumption, especially on the back of the vaccine optimism. we can be in a world where there is disconnect between equity valuations and u.s. yields that persist for a very long time. a ton ofve also won awards for technical analysis. about whenalk to you trends move, when they start, it is usually out of catharsis. i don't see catharsis in the bond market, or frankly and many other markets, except maybe bitcoin right now. when you look at the technical charts of bonds, notes, bills, yield, do you see emotion that makes trend move?

moment, from a technical perspective, the biggest thing we are looking at is what is the pain trade. where are the positions? what we see is that there are a lot of people very short in the longer end of the curve. so that bet that rates are going to steadily rise is very consensus. for me at least, that suggests that anytime we do see a re-steepening effort on the part of the yield curve, that will lead to short covering, and that will be bought. the flipside being if we grind even lower, you will see people just capitulate. if rates grind lower, that could even further flatten the curve. lisa: what could prompt that? what is the trigger here? ian: i would say you either shift ofe the fed's bond buying appropriately priced in, so the extension being undervalued at this point, and

in that eventuality, let's call it 16 december, people wake up and they say, we are not going to steepen as we initially anticipated, and that is where you get that covering and that pain trade really take hold. the flipside is we are trading two different macro narratives. one, the short-term ramifications for the real economy from extended shutdowns, higher covid-19 case counts, and the other being a vaccine that will bring us back to some version of normal by the second half of next year. what happens if the short-term downside is more dramatic than we are currently anticipating? i think that is where you get that bull flattening that exacerbates the pain trade. jonathan: a lot of money on the latter. great to catch up. there of bmo capital markets. like the word

asymmetrical there because to me, it can cut both ways. i don't have a clue what yield is going to do, but i do agree that all of this public policy is dampening, as you and i heard from bob prince and davos. that is clearly what we have seen since davos. jonathan: i think this belief is widely shared that if yields start to push higher, the fed is in the game. going to put a lid on it. a lot of people share that view. lisa: i also think a lot of people share the view that is opposite of what ian was saying, which is the fact that growth is going nowhere and the overhang of debt is going to keep growth very slow for the foreseeable future. how dissident is that view with the high equity prices that seem to only grind higher? jonathan: lisa abramowicz, doom the day before thanksgiving. [laughter] you can always rely on it. lisa: just put me in black, you know? ula. and chol

jonathan: i am not a hot sauce kind of guy. lisa: really? i like to spaced things up a little bit. nice.an: tom: if the pilgrims were as gloomy as you, they never would have gotten on the boat. [laughter] you cooked the wrong bird. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. joe biden has made it clear he wants to calm international relations. the president-elect introduced a team of foreign policy experts he planned to nominate. the appointees will work with biden on his goal of restoring u.s. ties with international organizations that president trump has spurned. meanwhile, biden has -- mr. biden: we are now meeting with the covid team in the white house on how to not only

distribute, but get from a vaccine being distributed to a person that is able to get vaccinated. so i think we are going to be not so far behind the curve as we thought we might be in the past. ritika: meanwhile, biden is encouraged after just a day of transition talks with the trump administration. he spoke with nbc news. u.k., the coronavirus restrictions will be eased over the holiday. as many as three households will be allowed to meet in a so-called christmas bubble. england has been under a lockdown that is set to end december 2, replace with a regional three-tiered system of restrictions. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm rick -- i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

vaccinesws about the have had a very positive effect on animal spirits, so i think

that there is a ray of hope. this is something that we have to take into consideration, but the level of uncertainty continues to be very important. jonathan: that was the ecb vice president speaking to bloomberg. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. eve, hereanksgiving is the price action. it is tomorrow, tom. lisa: you've been brining for two weeks. jonathan: the last several weeks. told me domerengue not brine. i am doing merengue cooking. jonathan: all right. can i do the stocks now? [laughter] down three on the s&p, down 0.1%. in the fx market, just south of $1.19 on euro-dollar. in the bond market, settling down at 0.875%. crude up another 0.7%.

$45.20. tom: somebody emails in, they think i got my boats wrong. they came over on the mayflower. [laughter] it wasn't the nina, the penta. jonathan: it wasn't. this is the problem with you, tom. when you say something, people believe you. they think you mean it. do you really think i have a child in brazil, 10 wives? [laughter] tom: for all of you on radio and tv, and this is said with wonderful affection, we would listen to the great comedian stan freeburg. one of the great bits was they cooked the wrong bird on thanksgiving. they were supposed to cook an eagle, and they cooked a turkey. with that, we're withdrew drewrong -- we are with

armstrong. it is a hospital crisis. what is the staffing like at our hospitals this thanksgiving echo -- this thanksgiving? drew: it has become widespread across the u.s.. there's going to be a lot of doctors and nurses working thanksgiving in the hospital, taking care of covid patients, because for 15 days and around, the u.s. -- days in a row, the u.s. has hit record after record of people who are in the hospital, very sick with covid. americansr was 88,000 . it is not a great place to be heading into what is supposed to be a time of family and traveling and gathering. it is pretty depressing to see. lisa: i think jon ferro called

it what could be the largest super spreader event in history. where are we in the exponential curves of the spreading of this virus in the united states? drew: i think what we see in the week or two after the thanksgiving holiday is going to be very telling. did people listen to the warnings about not attending large indoor gatherings? how much of an effect on spread did they have versus large public events? what do these numbers look like coming out of this? cases are picking up kind of all over the place. pennsylvania looks very bad right now. the dakotas appeared to be turning around, but there still remains a lot of the country vulnerable to this disease. inathan: chancellor sunak the u.k. delivering an outlook for the economy that we already kind of noon.

the deficit forecast to be 394 2021,n sterling in 2020, and chancellor sunak only one i've heard so far thinking about plugging that cap anytime soon. ae market is looking through lot of these headlines largely because of the progress we have made on the vaccine front. how will this work? drew: i think if you work in the health care space or, for example, in a nursing home, you are likely to be on the front lines of getting this. pfizer has said they have 6 million vaccines ready to ship as soon as approval happens. this is going to be a phased rollout that really goes after people who are at highest risk of this disease, either because of medical conditions or what they do. the rest of us are going to be waiting for a while. that said, very good news that

we appear to have highly effective vaccines coming. one of the things i think it's important is how will we find out about this? government,al there's been a lot of complaints that the fed has not provided the leadership and resources on this that is going to be needed. i have a feeling it will probably look a lot like flu vaccine season. that is a very good template to use. the logistics are a little bit trickier, but i think a lot of americans are asking the same question. how will i know when i get a vaccine? that is unanswered in many places. tom: you are encyclopedic on this. will we see many more vaccines? what is your gut feeling of april and july of next year. drew: we are certainly going to see several. we've got this leaders, pfizer and moderna, right behind them

astrazeneca, and there's another cohort of these coming along that have just been waiting to get their trials fully enrolled and tested. the reality is that it is a good thing to have a diversity of vaccines available. they all are manufactured differently. they all have different storage requirements. they may perform differently in certain groups of people versus another. riskore spread of that that you have about how you make these, the better. so you have companies like j&j , all doing, merck this work. being first did not mean being only, and given that this could be a seasonal disease or when we live with for a while, the picture a year from now in which vaccines we are using may look very different than the picture a month from now. jonathan: drew, great to catch

up, as always. enjoy thanksgiving, sir. some headlines dropping across the bloomberg in the last five minutes. the chancellor saying the budget forecast will be 394 billion pounds, the deficit in 2021. important to point out that these projections around things like on a plane and and growth are made by the office of budget responsibility, independent of government. this is not the chancellor saying this is where i think it will be. this is the office of budget responsibility saying we think these are where the numbers will be, and he is trying to build a spending plan around those numbers. tom: is that stimulus? this is like what we are not doing here, right? jonathan: no, that is the outlook based on the fact that tax income has fallen so much, and spending has had to rise. that is basically them just projecting the gap between income and spending among into next year. the one to watch in the next couple of minutes is the aide

budget coming out of the u.k. keep an eye on those headlines if you can. from london and new york this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ hope it doesn't cost too much.

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>> the nightmare scenario for markets would be if the unemployment rate would begin to go higher. >> even before the pandemic, we had a lot of frailty. >> i think we will have weathered the storm, and i do hope that the worst will be over by next summer. >> that back of 2021 could be a little more precarious. >> we may experience a bit of a dip economically. >> we are still in a deep recession. >> this is as much a risk of a double-dip, it is a risk that we extend the rebound. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, ene