>> the nightmare scenario for markets would be if the unemployment rate would begin to go higher. >> even before the pandemic, we had a lot of frailty. >> i think we will have weathered the storm, and i do hope that the worst will be over by next summer. >> that back of 2021 could be a little more precarious. >> we may experience a bit of a dip economically. >> we are still in a deep recession. >> this is as much a risk of a double-dip, it is a risk that we extend the rebound. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.

dow 30,000. 2009,were you march 10 of while you were up 16% per year on the dow? spx i believe better as well. there have been reasons along the way to go to cash, and yet here we are with solid double-digit returns across 13 years. jonathan: and some houses got it right. one of those houses, morgan stanley. it was really uncomfortable to make the call coming out of march 2 remain committed to the recovery in the u.s. economy. it took some real confidence, and one thing that has frustrated me over the last couple of months is every time someone says the easy money has been made. there was nothing easy about going long in early april during lockdown. let's be clear about that. we are going to keep this short with mr. wilkinson -- keep

wilsonort to get mr. of morgan stanley, but we are not even seeing the version of those trends, are we? jonathan: not yet. bank of america proposes holding the bonus pool flat for traders, this on a year where in the first of nine months, revenues or bank of america are up 20%. i think some people were hopeful that may be they would get a boost around that, but of america proposing holding the bonus pool flat for traders. that headline just crossing the bloomberg. tom: we've got to get to mike wilson because he's going to be on the phone to bank of america. this is what happens here. this goes back to what ubs wants to do in switzerland, where they are trying to rejigger away from bonus compensation. my experience is that works until it doesn't work. lisa: the key tension here is how much will it be difficult to recruit people as a result of it, or how much will the entire

wall street employee base shrink next year, making it possible for bank of america and others to move to a leaner model, especially if they expect loan losses ahead? this goes to the underlying tension in markets with an economy that isn't going gangbusters, and this is why it has been so difficult to get this call right. tom: this goes to compensation and resetting, whether it is hedge funds, alternative investment, institutional managers that are behind. imagine the panic out there right now to get to a shape up of your portfolio. jonathan: i think some policymakers are panicking, too. from chancellor sunak, the u.k. budget. to overseas aid the budget pulled last year for international aid was about 15 billion sterling, so that is getting cut, which will be somewhat controversial when it comes to the ukase to that's

when it comes to the u.k.'-- when it comes to the u.k.'s standing. that is controversial within the united kingdom and within the conservative party as well. we can talk about the headlines from chancellor sunak. tom: this is from the year-end into the holiday season, and you are going to get the mother of all annual data dumps. mike mckee will join us on the economy. of course, ellen zentner at morgan stanley looking at, i believe her phrase was a winter of discontent. her colleague mike wilson joins , chief u.s. equity strategist at morgan stanley. do you share the discontent about equity markets? mike: good morning, tom. the discontent in the economy may not necessarily mean discontent in the markets. markets trade differently from the economy. we are looking at a slowdown for sure as case counts rise,

potential lockdowns and all of that good stuff. while the s&p 500 is basically flat since early september, there's a raging bull market going on under the surface. this is the point we have really been trying to emphasize. as we look forward to next year, there is still a lot of undervalued assets within the equity market that had not participated yet. that is the big story really going on in the equity market. tom: do you unload your tactical over to materials, cyclicals, and the rest, or do they participate as well? mike: that was the strategy. you guys are talking about stepping into the fray back in march being difficult. a thicket was even more difficult to kind of move away from the former leaders to the laggards. that is a real risk for a lot of people. i think folks have thought that itlong as they can, and now

is becoming about that move. that is what it is really about, the election result bus the vaccine news forcing people to consider the possibility that this leadership change is not temporary, that it is more sustainable, and positions are not rate for that. jonathan: we've got two time frames here, the near term in the medium-term. you've had this trading range that you have developed, and it has evolved slightly as the year has progressed. can you walk through that range right now and why you think we may be in for a test of the lower end of that range? trying to call corrections in a bull market is sometimes a fool's game. we were bullish for march through august, and we thought the market would then go through some consolidation. that wast this range technically driven, it worked really well from basically august through the end of

october. we made a trading by call at the lower end of that range right before the election, and it worked out really well. now we are at the upper end of that banding and actually -- through he 635 it, at 3635. at the end of the day, at 3635, you have baked in pretty much as ach upside as you can come legitimately confirmed with fundamentals. on a fundamental basis, it is hard for us to stretch it much beyond that. liquidity may be surging in the market, but our job is to tell our clients when the risk/reward is attractive. right now it is much less attractive than it was three weeks ago. it doesn't change our view about the bull market extending into next year, and once again, the main message we want to leave with clients is don't focus so much on the index. up 20% this2000 is month, and just starting to have relative outperformance.

those are the types of things we want to focus on for clients. somehan: some -- lisa: research notes after janet yellen was nominated to be treasury of the secretary saying that the idea of a treasury working more closely with the federal reserve willing to run the economy hot is good for inflation, and is only going to fuel the trades you are talking about, russell 2000, financials. do you agree that janet yellen at the treasury is, if not a game changer, really adds momentum to what we are seeing in the market? mike: absolutely. one of our themes this year is that we are moving out of what i would call monetary policy dominant regime to a fiscal policy dominant regime. in fact, janet yellen and ben bernanke have been writing up beds for the last six months -- eds for the last six months imploring congress to do fiscal. the fed has been imploring the

government to say we need your help this time. we need to get more fiscal cooperation to use the cheap money to finally pull us out of the slow growth environment. putting janet yellen as u.s. treasury secretary can only help that effort in my view because it does come down to a negotiation with congress, and obviously janet yellen has tremendous street credibility, and we know who she is rich he also has a penchant for some of these programs that are more favorable to the lower income cohort, which is exact a what has been working this year, getting money to the folks who need it and will spend. tom: mike wilson, international investment now. which inning are we in? is it just beginning, or has it just been a nice pop and that's it? mike: it's another one that has been a bit of a widow maker for the last six or seven years, in the sense that every time it tries to make a move, it is like the value versus growth phenomenon. it is the same trade. i think we are at an inflection point right now for the more

cyclical parts of the market to work better because there's economic growth acceleration not just here, but globally. some of that is inflationary. there's no doubt that those markets, if we are worrying about our fundament to i can view, those markets should have better outperformance over the next 12 months. jonathan: best month ever on the stoxx 600 in europe this month, up around 15%. tremendous work for the team this year. fantastic to follow some of the research. have a wonderful thanksgiving, sir. here's the range, 3150 to 3550. ofclosed yesterday north 3600, and then looking for a test to the downside. that has been the story over the last couple of weeks, the tug-of-war between the near term in the forward outlook. the forward outlook overwhelmingly is dominating the trade environment. how much bad news do we need to test the tolerance, the patients of that argument? lookon the bloomberg, you

at standard deviation analysis. grimm is 3259. we've got what is called room to 3735, so that is the pullback they are talking about. jonathan: data 20 minutes away. last week, claims were softer. retail surprise. i just heard about pmi's for much of this week from the united states. typically we don't talk about market pmi's in the united states, but it has come up again and again. the data this week has been good. lisa: what i am looking for is the personal income and personal spending. what i think could really shift the market conversation is of holiday spending comes in much weaker than people expect. that challenges the entire narrative of a resilient consumer and that confidence, and that to me could potentially be a near-term game changer, at least for the markets. jonathan: on this thanksgiving eve, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan

ferro. the economic data about 20 minutes away. the economic data comes first, then the opening bell comes 60 minutes later. record highs, tuesday of the close. the real yield comes this friday. i am sure you will be watching it with your turkey. "bloomberg surveillance -- with your turkey. [laughter] tom: watching the lions, the detroit lions. jonathan: i watch the detroit lions on thanksgiving. i always do. tom: my deepest sympathies. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the number is stunning. in the u.k., chancellor of the exchequer rishi sunak says the british economy will shrink the most in 300 years. sunak told parliament gdp will shrink by more than 11% in 2020. the government budget office projects 5.5 percent growth next

year. president trump heads today to pennsylvania in his campaign to overturn election results there. he will meet with state lawmakers there, examining allegations of voter impropriety. complained that observers were not allowed to be close to workers counting votes. u.s. health officials are working on guidance to shorten the 14 day quarantine period. . if they are exposed to coronavirus officials are starting to see more evidence that they would spend less time and pouring team as long as it has negative for the virus. mean more people complying. ibm is about to cut 10,000 jobs in europe, and attempt to lower cost added slow growth services voltaire, the business for a spinoff. cuts are also planned in poland,

slovakia, italy, and belgium. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

mr. biden: we are already meeting with the covid team in the white house on how to not only distribute, but get from a

vaccine being distributed to what should be a person able to get vaccinated. so i think we are not so far behind the curve as we thought we might be in the past. jonathan: that is the good news, getting our heads around the idea that we have a vaccine that is about to roll out a vaccination. president-elect joe biden speaking to nbc nightly news. bit, takeck a little about six points off the s&p 500, down zero point 2%. in the fx market come up needed --ce action -- down 0.02 in down 0.2%. market, some needed price action. move in the last 10 days. right now, and this comes up on the economic data we are going

to see and what jon has talked about happening in the house of commons right now, with britain in recession. it is a compare and contrast to years ago.300 tobias adrian is one with skill on this, of the international monetary fund, the director of monetary and capital markets. tobias, i love your essay which links the path forward one to 2023, andr, out you link it directly to the financial stability that the chancel your of the exchequer -- that the chancellor of the exchequer desires. can we have our turkey and eat it, too? tobias: good morning. thank sir have me -- thank you for having me. yes, central banks have deployed extraordinary measures this year

in order to fight this terrible pandemic. that has been tremendously helpful in easing financial conditions, getting financial markets to work, allowing firms and governments to borrow from markets. that is a very good outcome. an unintended consequence of this is for risk-taking to return in financial markets, and indeed we there is high risk for loans, but you have to make sure there is not excessive risk-taking. tom: this goes to the blue book, the brown book, and the green book of the international monetary fund. have you calculated the percent of gdp we will have to spend,? progressive -- to spend on this? progressive and liberal

economists would say it is a higher percentage of gdp. do you have a perspective on this? tobias: we have looked at the fiscal expenditures this year, and there were about $12 trillion globally. , innding on the economy advanced economies it is up to 15% of gdp that has been spent in 2020 alone on fiscal expenditures in order to cushion the economy from this terrible pandemic. lisa: and yet, people still say monetary policy is doing the heavy lifting. even though we have that incredible fiscal expansion, it is the idea of incredibly low interest rates, bond purchases and beyond by central banks. what are the stability risks of this disconnect we keep talking about, with markets flying at records even as we look at a pretty bleak winter? tobias: for the moment, things are in pretty good shape. banks have entered this crisis with much more capital then they

entered the 2008 crisis. have come markets back, and that has been very helpful in terms of sustaining the recovery and sustaining the economy. we worry about the next three to if monetary conditions tell me that -- ifgiving remains easy monetary conditions tell me that lending remains easy, and there could be excessive risk-taking in some corners. jonathan: you pointed out this was the objective of policy, to divorce financial conditions from underlying fundamentals. he used the word excessive. who gets to decide whether it is excessive? tobias: it is a balance. you do want lending. you do want to a support the sick -- you do want to support the economy, but you want it to

be measured. , support of monetary policy is going to be appropriate for some time in many countries for many years, but that has to be combined with regulatory measures that make sure there isn't excessive risk-taking in terms of risky lending or the buildup of leverage. thinking ofe you the market tools, those kind of things at the moment? tobias: it would cover the banks, the nonbanks as well as the household sector and the corporate sector. so you really have to look at the economic system as a whole. jonathan: tobias, come back soon. love to continue the conversation. , imf director of monetary and capital markets.

what point do you decide that we need to recalibrate things once again, that maybe things are to excessive? and if you do and there is an adverse reaction in markets, you get a tightening of financial conditions. what do you think a policy maker does, get back in again? tom: you see it in europe in the battle between hungary and poland. a philosophical debate about income replacement. there a huge part, including bank of america traders, that aren't doing well. we can joke about it, but there's a huge body of people this thanksgiving who are not getting by. that is an indisputable fact. jonathan: and i believe you're not talking about the bank of america traders. this situation right now is kind of just utterly bizarre. we saw chairman powell try to do this in the back end of 2018. financial conditions tightened. the primary market seized up in

higher yield. chair powell stepped back in. we saw president lagarde try saying the ecb in march, we are not here to close spreads. get what the ecb is doing now? closing spreads. we should be making an effort to deemphasize financial markets away from policymaking, but how we already gone too far. i think maybe we have. lisa: he was talking about how joe biden has an opportunity to try to change the narrative because as president trump displayed yesterday at that press conference, he has been very connected to the market, using it as a gauge of economic health, which tends to be problematic if you see this divorce continuing between the economic health as measured by unemployment rates and other highs.s to record but how are they going to do that? jonathan: lisa is such a beast on twitter. as we are having this

conversation, tweets already out of the column. i just can't keep up with that. just ridiculous. hot: it is the cholula sauce. jonathan: minutes away from the data in america, the coverage continues. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: sparrow thought for michael mckee thanksgiving eve. -- spare a thought for michael mckee this thanksgiving eve. in 10 seconds about 14 data points across the terminal. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. economic data slowly pouring out. let's say hello to michael. michael: thanksgiving brings a cornucopia and today we have this cornucopia of economic data. let's talk about the ones you will trade on. watch the bottom of the screen for all the data we might not get to. initial jobless claims. it is bad news again. claims, up from 742,000. i do not have the revision yet washe prior week, but it 742,000. continuing claims continue to

fall. 6,071,000. that means people are moving from the regular jobless claims benefits to the extended benefits. the wholesale trade, the advanced goods trade balance, the advanced trade report, an $80 billion -- $80.3 billion trade deficit in the month of october. that is just slightly lower than the 80.4 billion that had been forecast. 79 billion last quarter. another drag on the third-quarter growth numbers. this would be on the fourth quarter growth numbers. we are just getting the durable goods numbers. that is one people will be watching closely. durable goods overall up 1.3%. that is more than the .8 forecast and not as much as 1.9% in september. capital goods orders, ex-defects -- nondefense

-air is up .7%. down from 1%. numbers..5% forecast durable goods better than expected. jobless claims worse than expected. pretty much what we have seen in terms of the narrative. the labor market is deteriorating but factories and production hanging in because inventories have been low. we have wholesale and retail inventories. wholesale up .9%. some of that factory work is going into warehouse. i cannot convey how difficult this is for mr. mckee when we used to get the data all at once. what i find so important is iva 33% statistic on gdp, looking back to the summer when jonathan ferro was hiking in switzerland or wherever he was.

how far are we from the boom of that 33% bounce? michael: we have, a long way down. do not mention gdp. this is the first revision, 33.1%, exactly the same as the prior quarter. no real change. the point is the economy was bouncing back. now we are in the question of whether or not we are expanding again. the latest data, we do not incorporate today's numbers, but the gdp now is a 5% increase in gdp so far for the fourth quarter. that will come down. we are expecting something 3% overall by the end of the quarter. lisa: i want to go back to one data point. this is a flood of information. one stands out. that is initial jobless claims which comes out substantially higher than people had expected.

it was revised upwards. the headline is more people are filing for jobless support at this point than last week. this is not what you want to be seeing, especially because we are in a recovery. can you give a sense of why this matters, why this data point is potentially the most important among a slew of information today? michael: consumption is two thirds of the economy and if you do not have a job you will not be buying a lot. that is what people are concerned about. on a longer-term basis, and this will be an issue for janet yellen as treasury secretary, how do you get those people back to work? lisa, areyou see now, about companies that had barely made it through to this point. now with covid cases accelerating everywhere, a lot of those places are not going to be able to reopen. they will run out of their ability to stay open, particular without any kind of stimulus coming in.

a lot of people will be off work for a long time. the thing everybody is watching as the growth in long-term employment, which has been very large. jonathan: this is the test for this market. we have had two weeks of jobless claims going the wrong way. set to continue. any people think going into year end, possibly to q1. weakness looking for at the start of q1, saying the economy is set to deteriorate even further in the face of a record high market in the euphoria of the forward outlook. muted price action of the back of that disappointing movement initial jobless claims. futures unchanged on the s&p 500. a bond market down not even a basis point on the 10 year and it market well behaved. we will see more of these tests, will it test the confidence or euphoria many people have about the year to come? itherine: i agree -- tom:

agree about the testing and the two part economy. some good news michael mckee gave us. much more on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio this morning. catherine mann joins from citigroup. on thanksgiving we are supposed to take a broader view. somebody mentioned there are another major bank looking for slow down, looking for recession. can you be so grim as to tell folks we will begin to approach and nber recession. catherine: that is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. i do not think will be looking at that. that does not imply we will not be looking at a very difficult situation for a lot of people. upset you have this two phase recovery. one is manufacturing doing quite

well. having a trade deficit in durable goods or capital goods is a good sign for business investment going forward. labor market weakness, the continued weakness of the labor market is something that will track the economy down. you have two speeds, one is extremely slow, that is what the initial claims is telling us, that is in reverse. the capital goods trade deficit is positive. that is going to keep us from being an official recession, but it will be very grim. jonathan: can you give us the medium-term outlook for citi, the base case, the contrast between the two. catherine: i outlined the fact that the continuing claims in the initial claims are pointing to a difficult time over the next few months, possibly into the second quarter of next year. our official forecast is that

the u.s. economy will have returned to the pre-covid level of gdp in q2 of next year. i think that happens to be considered in light of the caseload around the country. that is clearly going to weigh on that forecast. lisa: we keep talking how markets are ignoring the near term, looking to brighter time with the vaccine and traveling. the question we keep coming back to every morning is what is the damage? the longer term damage being done by the virus that is spreading at an exponential rate and is affecting the employment picture dramatically with worse than expected jobless claims coming in. what is the scarring? how do you measure that? catherine: there are different ways of measuring it in the labor market data. different u's and so forth. market, itis a labor

is the small businesses that are disappearing. it will take time to bring that back. i also think there are other potential changes in the way the economy works that is a consequence of this divergence between what is happening to companies in the real side and what is happening in the financial side. one of the things we are seeing is the companies that are doing well are buying their competitors. m&a. we have seen more m&a, looking at more of that over the next six months. when we come out the other side, the structure of the economy looks very different, or potentially quite different with more concentration. that is not good for labor markets, people in the labor market being able to get their wages once they get employed. consolidation is great for markets. great for stock prices.

it is bad for innovation and for workers. longer-term, the type of m&a concentration we might end up with its months from now is not something we are happy about in the longer-term. tom: a fancy question on foreign exchange. what happens is you end up having dollar dynamics which harm countries. they complained. then you get an abrupt reversal. with a weak dollar, i guess the parentheses get stronger. 95have one house go to a yen which is a shockingly strong again. is that what is in store for -- which is a shockingly strong yen. is that what is in store for us next year? catherine: there is a general view in the market that dollar depreciation is in the cards, baked in almost.

i think we have to look at a lot of variation in how economies will be performing over the next year. we do see a lot of differences in potential improvement in the economies over the course of the year based on policy differences, based on vaccine differences, so i think it is we are lookingy at a situation where the dollar gets too weak and everybody has to go in and try to reverse course. there is a lot more choppy waters. depends upon whether you're looking at latin america or asia in terms of the merging markets. even the differences between europe and japan against the dollar. a lot of different factors at play. jonathan: reaction to the data dump of the last 11 minutes. catherine jones, a good friend of this program. rising morele goods

than expected. same old story. manufacturing good, the job market not so good. you touched on this earlier. how long that dynamic can persist, these different economies that seem to be persisting at the moment, not just in the united states, but in europe. catherine: manufacturing is being supported by the policies put into place to replace worker income at a time when they cannot spend it on anything else. that is why we have seen manufactured goods look so good. --ail sales looking so good looking good in terms of the bounce off the bottom, and then the furlough scheme in europe. these are designed to replace worker incomes, but they have limited things to spend it on and retail sales is one of the ways they are spending. there is that. then there is replacing the inventory.

least inhose, at united states, are coming to an end, especially the support programs designed to support people's incomes. without a move towards replacement or move towards another strategy of tax changes in regulatory changes that will promote business investment, then we do have a situation where ultimately the act of consumption -- the lack of consumption will drag down the businesses. you cannot go out too far on a limb, with manufacturing doing well and employment doing poorly. ultimately you fall off. jonathan: always wonderful to get your perspective. catherine mann of citigroup. still about 13 minutes to go. attendant economic data drop across the united states. everything from capital goods, durable goods, continuing

claims, initial jobless claims. claims, youobless plug all of the data into markets and it looks like this. 1.19, dollarhrough weakness into the mix. the smallest of bids into the bond market. the 10 year yield down about a basis point. futures unmoved. claims going the wrong way. durable goods orders doing ok. the story is the direct feed of negative data around the jobs market into year end. jonathan: i will go with david rosenberg it was wonderful on slicing and dicing the spirit service sector inflation has come in, disinflation since march. you wonder, do we reverse back to the 3% plus service inflation or not? to me that is a raging debate that leads right into policy and then right into yield and then

right onto markets and equities. jonathan: a debate into 2021. i will step away. i will let you close-out. bob michele of jp morgan will join me on the others. looking forward to that. i know you will talk about getting back into first class on the plane soon. tom: is an influencer on instagram. jonathan: very cool. i will join you on facetime tomorrow with little bit of pumpkin pie. how about that? we will link lisa into the mix. we should do it over zoom. lisa: i am bringing my iphone. jonathan: i will bring some makeup along. push that on instagram. ritika: this could be an omen for wall street. bloomberg has learned bank of america's leaders are planning thatthis is -- bonuses

break with traders hopes for big raises. pushingxecutives are plans to keep the bonuses at last year's levels despite a 20% jump in revenue in the first nine months. joe biden has made it clear he wants to calm international relations after what has been a tumultuous four years. the president-elect introduced a team of foreign policy experts he plans to nominate. the appointees will work with joe biden on his goal of restoring u.s. ties and international organizations that president trump has burned. joe biden is encouraged after a day of talks with the brunt of virus. -- a day of talks on the coronavirus. he spoke with nbc news. areident-elect biden: we talking with the covid team on how to not only distribute but how to get from a vaccine able to distribute to a person able to get vaccinated. we will not be so far behind the curve as we thought we might be

in the past. ritika: global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪ >> of course it is going to help. let's assume they have a rapid testing system that has the efficacy and the reliability. oft should deal with a lot the concerns some countries have, but not all. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." we say good morning this wednesday before thanksgiving. a time normally of immense travel. i call it the fourth wednesday of november. the kids come home. all of the things we have done over the years, and then there

is a pandemic. it has hit no one harder than the hospitality industry, particularly how we transport in our business and hospitality. that would be travel. it would be good not to speak to a ceo, and we have done a good job on that. thanks to guy johnson for leading the coverage worldwide. how about talking to somebody who single-handedly changed how we travel? his name is brian kelly. he has never gotten the credit from the business community about what the points guide has done. it was a website, it was a joke. everybody laughed at him until they realized jp morgan was listening and jamie biden -- and jamie dimon was taking notes. what are your thoughts into 2021? brian: first of all, thanks for giving that intro instead of just saying i am an influencer. i am kidding. this year has been absolutely wild for consumers traveling.

i do see hope on the horizon. talking about our millions of readers on social media, i feel this bubble of revenge travel in 2021. i do see good things on the horizon. tom: when we look at things like qantas setting up rules, do you feel your world will be the rule makers that force 100% use of vaccination? ghana quite al to bit and i've to show yellow fever vaccination. i would not be surprised if countries -- this virus, it is crazy how quickly it can spread. politics is a couple of mistakes and it can spread like wildfire. i do see more countries putting in a virus passport once these billions of doses are out and we can actually track it. lisa: i hope i can join the wave of revenge travel. a lot of people look forward to getting back on planes and seeing the world. i am wondering if it will be

more expensive? the hospitality industry has gotten hit very hard. how willing to you think, based anecdotally on what you have seen, do you think there'll be points and loyalty programs when they need cash and they need the money? brian: points and loyalty programs bring in billions of dollars in upfront cash. we saw hilton and marriott cell billions this year for future use of the credit companies. the loyalty programs need people to use those points. even black friday, virgin atlantic is selling their miles at half off. you can fly to new york or l.a. $1000 or $1500 when you factor in the promotion. it is a great time for consumers and i do not see prices going up. supply and demand, still so many people sitting it out until they can get a vaccine which may not be until the end of next year.

a good time for deals. lisa: something has to give. we are looking at a market that has been decimated. if you look at the lawsuits in the airline industry projected, how will they recoup that, and if they do not does that mean no soda, charging for your luggage, talk about the practical implications of the quality of life aspects of these hospitality industries. brian: the airlines have actually made it better for consumers in waving most change fees. you can now book the cheapest flight and change it for free. they say that before ever. a shoe is going to drop at some point. the way they are doing that is managing capacity, retiring all caps, the industry has been right sized. spirit i doold jet not see punitive -- retiring old jets. i do not see punitive changes for consumers. tom: klm and air france are talking to the dutch government about dale out.

-- about bailouts. do you assume we will see more government aid to the industry to get them to the other side of the points guide bridge -- of the points guy bridge. brian: i do not see it. we saw norwegian air got the big no from their government. u.s. has not been willing to extend. i think these publicly traded companies have learned a lesson that you should probably stock up more on cash. i do not foresee another big bailout. i think they just have to right sized things until the demand returns. goinghis summer lisa was through the adirondacks. the adirondacks or north of new york city. portage andeing and all of that. she is trying to use her point miles to help her pay for the

portage between the legs. what are the banks got -- between the lakes. what is the next step for the banks? you get 200,000 points? it is funny you say that because banks this summer took a break from big promotions because the credit risk was so unknown. are people going to be defaulting left and right? it appears that is not the case but we are not server -- we are not sure how many consumers have been defaulting. the banks came back with big offers. i have seen a shift towards more flexible points instead of credit cards that offer airline miles. now even chase's offering future points on groceries at a rich right. i for see the credit card companies allowing those points to be more flexible for use on things like merchandise. tom: thanks for keeping the spirit up. it is wonderful during a kelly.c to see mr. six bathere for $142 and

jillion points. brian: i am going to rwanda. tom: why am i not surprised. brian kelly, traveling all the places lisa and i would kill to. lisa: i would like to make a correction. you cannot use your points to portage. i learned this the hard way. tom: get the truck out and put the canoe on top of the jeep. [laughter] it has been something. three day week again. more data in the 10:00 hour, looking at a lot more data. you can see that. michael mckee will have all of that. lisa, what you observe in the market? i love your thoughts on the zombie bond market. it has really settled down. lisa: what is interesting is the muted reaction from the data. the idea we have a labor market that is worse than people have

thought and getting worse as we get into the winter months, you are seeing a bid to bond market strengthen with yields near the session lows. .684%.r yields down i wonder at what point we tipped the scales into a change in narrative? we do not have that when you look at equities. tom: let me do a data check. commodities, our interview of the week in commodities was jeffrey currie of goldman sachs talking up a new bull market in commodities. ,ou see it with brent crude $48.25. that has to be my surprise of the week. jonathan ferro mentioning copper earlier. dollar weakness, 104.43. lisa asleep in the bond market. no surprise. red and green on the screen. interesting to see how we stagger on an interesting wednesday into friday and next

week as well. coming up, an important conversation. trumpvarro, president strong advocate for stridency to china in conversation with kevin cirilli on "balance of power." stay with us. this is bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. equity futures down .1%. we begin with the big issue. clarity emerging on wall street, driving global equities to fresh records. >> exuberance has been off the chart. >> the market has good reasons to extend its risk rally. >> a different type of rally. >> a very unusual situation. >> we have a perfect storm around some clarity. >> markets are sitting pretty . >> we have clarity of the peaceful transition. >> a janet yellen treasury department. >> positive develop men's on the vaccine. a lot of positive