>> it is 12:00 noon here in lone dornings 7:00 a.m. in new york. u.s. markets are closed for the thanksgiving holiday, but it is still a regular trading day near europe. from london, i'm anna edwards. this is a special edition of "bloomberg markets." let's check those markets for you now. we'll go to the ones that are open. european equity markets moved to the down side, down around .1%. some of the sectors that are really being wasn't up today, the banking sector and energy, and autos and auto parts. with banks and energy moving down, it's difficult for london to make ground, difficult for the spanish market to make ground. as a whole, european equity markets retreat, even though some of these indexes are fairly flat. the german dak and cac not moving all that much in this morning's session and into the afternoon in europe. we are kind of directionless without the u.s. trade.

u.s. futures, for what they're worth, no u.s. equity trading today, but futures are flat to positive. positive if you're looking at the nasdaq. flat elsewhere. in terms of f.x. markets, the euro had been strong of late, a little bit of weakness, 1.1904. the pound, with all things brexit in mind as we're hearing the latest lines from u.k. politicians around easing of lockdown measures here in the u.k. and what kind of arrangements we go to, the focus still for investors in part is on brexit and trade negotiations. 1.3357, down .2% for the pound this morning. that's a look at the markets. let's get back to the virus story. astrazeneca and oxford university are facing mounting questions about their covid-19 vaccine trial, the results of which acknowledged a manufacturing error. let's get the details from bloomberg intelligence director of research. reading through the story, sam, good to speak to you today, reading through the story, it's

interesting. it seems that an error resulted in only half doses being gin to some participants, but they decided to persist with that. now the so-called error has resulted in some really divergent performance of the drug in trial. give us a bit more detail on what we know about this error and what happened. sam: good morning, anna. whether it's the error in that group that led to the difference, the apparent difference, i want to choose my words very carefully here, where there's the error in the dosing group that led to the apparent difference in efficacy is unknown. they don't know why that would have been the case from a scientific perspective in regards to the dosing, etc., why the response would have been different. and we still don't know what the difference between the two groups was in terms of age,

co-morbidity, etc. finally, whether it's actually real, whether they added another 3,000 people with that dose, the effect would have been 100%, which, of course, is impossible, because you only have x number of cases on advance seens, or less. so lots of questions left. i do not want to -- i do not believe that number until i see the detail. anna: we've had some suggestions coming through from some, the head of u.s. vaccine program, operate warp speed, suggesting those who were given the lower dose were a different demographic, were younger, and we just don't know exactly all of those details. it has struck some as quite surprising we're seeing such high efficacy rates in older people being reported by other vaccine programs and indeed across the board for this one, because we know that vaccines in other situations, in flu, for example, simply don't work as well when you're talking about older age groups. i suppose there's a lot we still don't know about the

demographic profile of the various groups here. sam: not in this trial. we do know from pfizer, however, that the efficacy in the folks over 65 years old was pretty much the same as that of the whole trial. at least in that seating there was no difference. if there's a difference here, then you do have a problem. that's the group that needs the vaccine most in terms of the severity of disease. but again, until we see the details, all this has done is create confusion and we were of the view all along that the best this trial can do, given the complexity of its design, that oxford university designed, not astrazeneca, is quite clear, it will be a best hypothesis generating. unfortunately, that's exactly what happened. anna: if you're a country buying up supplies of vaccinations at this point, do

we know enough to decide which vaccine you want to go for? you might not have free choice in that. you might have already done deals with some other suppliers. how should governments be thinking about the relative measure its of these different advance scenes at this point? sam: that's a difficult question to answer and an excellent question. at the end of the day, i do wonder whether we have a vaccine that clearly does something, we just don't know how much or how well and in which groups and what dose, so there's a lot of things we don't know, whether these governments were reliant on the doses they ordered. the only country that's gotten complete coverage for its population with moderna and pfizer is the united states. from our math. so u.k. accident european union, many other countries rely on the astra vaccine as well in terms of inoculating their folks. how much would politics, economics trump science and

detail is something we're going to find out quite soon, i'm sure. anna: yeah, they're priced differently and they also have different conditions attached in terms of transportation, different requirements. sam, thanks so much for joining us, sam fazelli. lots of questions surrounding the vaccine. joining us now with an investor perspective on how we navigate the pass through here, the founder and c.e.o. and editor, very good to speak to you once again. as we look at this sort of medium term optimism around vaccines, questions around efficacy maybe around astra and oxford, there does still seem to be medium term optimism, but short term, lot of pain and human tragedy, but also a lot of concern for how difficult the winter becomes. how do you go about thinking through the short term difficulties and the medium term optimism and balancing the two? >> that's a very good question.

the first thing i would say is that because we're in a second or third wave of the covid virus, markets, it will have less of a negative impact on the markets in general, leaving aside the advance seen. the first cut is always the deepest, so march, april was a period of maximum uncertainty, so we have less uncertainty around covid. the lockdowns are smart they are time compared to the first one. but a general observation is that even without the vaccine, a second, third wave would have less of a negative impact on markets. the second point i would make is that the vaccine is very significant in the sense that one should in general wait much more toward the vaccine side of the story than the current covid case side of the story, because if you know that you have a vaccine that will be distributed at some point over the course of next year, that gives a lot of certainty about how long these lockdowns will last. this is generally to wait much

more toward the vaccine than the current covid cases. that said, we do know that the winter period will be quite difficult. geographically, one can then say that perhaps one should wait towards countries in the southern hemisphere who will be going through the summer, so whether that's south america, australia, new zealand, those sorts of countries, so there could be some nuances there. the other point i would make is that there is, from a purely market, economic perspective, this is not just the covid cases and, unfortunately, the debt, but also the lockdown measures, how much does the current covid second or third wave have an impact on economic activity, and there there are major differences around the world. europe is much more strict. the u.s. less so. that will then be represented n the economic data. anna: you might want to think about the seasonality, that's a really interesting point, bilal, which hemisphere you're investing in, and you almost

want to think about the geographies and restrictive measures. even within europe, do you see big divergence, or is that overstating things? the most recent news point suggested that the u.k. is loosening a little, that france is loosening a little, germany is maintaining its stricter stance ahead of christmas, ahead of the holidays. maybe that's too simplistic. what do you expect to see as things develop through the winter in europe? bilal: that's a fair point. i expect a loosening of some of the measures closer to christmas, probably in most countries. you have to remember with germany, the level of restrictions wasn't as aggressive as some of the other countries in the first place. i do think, just like we've seen with the u.k., there are lifting of restrictions as we go into the christmas period. many of the countries recognize that, from a retail perspective, christmas is incredibly important stage for businesses, but also from a cultural perspective. it's a time for people.

and what we have seen with lockdowns, and if you look at the political responses to the current lockdown measures, there's less support for lockdowns this time around. and so the governments across europe have to be very careful about keeping the public on the side, so i do think there will be some loosening as we go into the christmas period. anna: for those watching in london, london is going to enter, england's middle level after this lockdown part two is removed. as we look at all of these measures, what this does to our ability to get out, out and about, bilal, as we enter into december, do we risk missing the bigger picture changes, the big structural shifts? we talk about those as well, but is that where your thought process goes? how much of this works from home, which i'm enjoying so much this week, how much of that work from home will live on into the post-pandemic era? what big changes should it make

for investing strategies? bilal: my kind of sense, and this is something i'm telling investors and clients and so on, is that for me the biggest story is not so much the current kind of lockdown measures or the vaccines even, it's more about what's going to be the enduring impact of 2020 on our lives. in some ways, if you step back and think about this, what happened in 2020 was essentially the world went on pause. it was like a major reboot of the world, where everything stopped, and everybody has to suddenly find a way of working when you weren't able to be mobile, which essentially meant a mass wide spread adoption of existing technologies that weren't adopted before. and this is in some ways quite revolutionary, and what we're finding is, and this is academic work that came out, a lot more people have discovered that they can work remotely and managers, people who were very skeptical of remote working virginia suddenly said actual it will kind of works. in fact, most have had a

positive experience from it all. i do think there will be some enduring impact on the labor force where we'll see much more remote working. if we do see that, that has some significant implications. one, it has an impact on cities versus smaller cities and villages and so on, where people will now find it more comfortable to live outside the big city. also, people will have access to jobs that they didn't have access to before, because they can now access it remotely. that opens up the opportunity that's available. so i think these will have some quite profound impacts on markets. anna: i'm sure it's a short-term phenomenon. i'm sure for some industries it will have long-term impacts. and the distribution of wealth around various geographies could be interesting. bilal, thank you very much. stay with us. we'll have more with bilal shortly. let's get a news update. for that we stay near london. >> hi, anna. here in the u.k., london will avoid the toughest coronavirus

restrictions when england's partial lockdown ends next week. the city's been placed in tier two, that means pubs, restaurants, and bars can open for business, but alcohol can only be served as part of a meal. households will not be allowed to mix indoors. it is a close to a long and bitterly fought criminal case involving president trump's first national security advisor. the president has pardoned michael flynn, who pleaded guilt toy lying to f.b.i. agents about his talks with the russian ambassador. conservative allies had portrayed flynn's prosecution as evidence of a conspiracy against the president. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg "quick take," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna? anna: thank you very much,

leigh-ann with your first word news update. coming up, investors with expectations for higher u.s. inflation after the down turn may number for disappointment. we'll take a closer look at the lasting impact of covid-19 on the services sector and what it means for the inflation debate. ♪

anna: this is "bloomberg markets." this is a special edition of the program this thanksgiving. let's check out what's

happening in the markets. many closed stateside, and we've been tracking the market action here in europe for us today. >> it really does look like traders are happy to take a pause today off what we've seen as an impressive rally so far in november. stoxx 600 down .1%. also what we're seeing is a reversal of some of the euphoria that's been in the markets the past couple of days, with higher beta cyclical sectors, really what's leading the market lower in the stoxx 600. u.k. stocks certainly having a big drag today as tiers get announced. s&p futures are flat, but this goes back to that reversion to a safety trade, though cash markets are closed. futures in the nasdaq are getting a bid of .3%. again, it's that safer, sort of tech trade we're seeing. let's look at some of the currencies and switch up the board. dollar spot, it is gaining. there's been a huge corporate

bid for the dollar ahead of the thanksgiving holiday, so just really holding on to that bid during a day with lower volume. bitcoin, we've been talking about this a lot, nearly 8.5% decline. it's so volatile that sometimes perhaps an 8% decline isn't that huge. the c.e.o. also talking perhaps more regulation across the currency space, so that's pulling back from some of the record rally we've seen in the digital currency. pound also moving lower, trading at the lows of the day, down a quarter of 1%. some of the news dragging the pound down perhaps in brexit talks as well. but i want to get into the charts, because the trend of the pound over the past few days has been higher. yes, it's lower today, but in look at what it's been doing, but underneath the market, that optimism is not there. it's more bearish. the risk reversal is trading near their low nest september. not enough risk for no deal is

currently priced into the market, so perhaps we're seeing that in options. anna: really interesting, dani, thank you very much. she's talking there about u.k. assets. worth mentioning the health secretary says that the virus cases are rising in parts of london. a lot of work still to do to keep london in tier two, so that's ahead as we head into december. if you are in the u.k. capital, till with us, bilal haez, we talked about the virus and how it's managed and how that impacts investment strategy. what about the impact on inflation? i know you've been given thought to the way the service sector has been hit through the pandemic and what impact that should have so our inflation expectations. can you link up some of those thoughts for us? bilal: of course. one of the biggest debates at the moment is will inflation go up or will it fall in the period going forward in the people who are very bullish on

inflation or expect it to go up are focusing on debt, the amount of printing by central banks. to me, the more important thing is supply side aspects of the virus, and which part of the economy is affected the most. unlike any other resgs, it's a service sector that has been completely impacted during the covid period. so that's the part of the economy that is really dropped significantly, held up, and if you look at inflation in advanced economy, in rich countries, most of inflation is service sector inflation, and so it's really -- if you go back over the last 10, 20 years, the only area of inflation we have seen in rich countries has been service sector inflation. goods inflation, cost of tv's and such things, have been close to zero. my sense is if it's a service sector, therefore, you should naturally see a downward call on inflation. and then longer term, my point

there is that within the service sector, the technological adoption that you've seen over the covid period should structurally lead to lower service sector pricing pressures going forward. anna: it's really interesting, because we're dealing with low inflation and lots of questions as to why that was, even before the pandemic, and now we've got added dynamics to consider. i wonder if one of those is the news about the vaccine and what that does to people's propensity to consume, who consumers and investors' propensity to invest. businesses' propensity to invest, rather. if you know the vaccine is coming, does that change things, add more pricing power? how do we deal with that vaccine news flow when it comes to inflation expectations? bilal: that's true. i do think that this will lead to a buildup in demand and great optimism, great investment and so on, which could in the short term have somewhat of a positive impact on inflation, so there could be

sort a pull up in inflation, and the effects we'll see inflation pick up. but already a lot of that is likely to be seen through commodity inflation, so oil prices have been picking up, food prices have been picking up. the food and energy component on inflation, it's probably the area where you'll see most of that occur. and outside of that, i think it's less clear, because if you think about the main areas of service sector inflation, one is medical costs, there's been a big spike in medical costs this year because of covid. that's probably going to start to head down. there's education,, so you know, our educational establishments, are they going to increase their prices in the years to come? i doubt it, especially with remote education and so on. here's a big one, housing, rents, are rents going to pick up significantly going forward? or instead, are we going to see a move out of high-rent locations, like cities or lower-rent places, which will

then have an impact. anna: we've seen the chief economist at the e.c.b. saying that it is essential not to let the yield curve steepen prematurely. this feeds into the inflation conversation, the extent to which central banks are going to try to keep yields low tone able all indebted parts to pay back those debts. bilal: absolutely. europe has a chronic low inflation problem. inflation, co-inflation is around .2%. it's anemic, the inflation. europe really does need to do whatever it can to boost inflation. the importance of the yield curve is that if you have inflation so low, if the yield curve steepens a bit, you end up with positive rates in an environment where you really to want boost your economy. so this is a message from the e.c.b. that they really want to keep policy loose, keep yields low to really allow consumers

and businesses to have the best interest rate environment ossible. anna: thanks for joining us. bilal hafee stpwhr, thank you very much for -- hafeez, thank you very much for spending time with us on the program. coming up, a u.k. economist and co-head of european economics will join us. lots to talk about. we'll talk about the e.c.b. latest news, because there's an adviser to the italian prime minister who's been calling for the e.c.b. to forgive some of the pandemic debt. we'll get into that conversation, and we talk about debt forgiveness and increasing the maturity of debt, what if any of that is going to be possible in the eyes of the e.c.b. we'll talk about all of that coming up. markets stateside are closed for thanksgiving. european equity markets are open, moving to the down side, down by .1%. banks, autos, auto parts, energy stocks under pressure. interesting mix of things to the upside. healthcare and travel and

leisure stocks going higher, providing a little bit of upside where we find it. european equity markets on the back foot looking for more guidance perhaps tomorrow on black friday from the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪ wanna lose weight and be healthier?

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anna: this is "bloomberg markets" live from london. if you're here in europe, equity markets are open. european equity markets looking directionless this hour, down around .8% as a whole. ftse 100 down .6%. cac and dax do a little better. the ibex in spain also down around .3%. the euro down .2%. we've had interesting comments from the chief economist at the e.c.b. e.c.b. phillip lane says he sees the first signs of worrying financing conditions, what implications does that have for the banking sector and for european corporate and the broader european economy. think about that as we go through the next couple of hours or so. let's get a first word news update. or that, we go to leigh-ann. leigh-ann: the trump administration plans to keep up

the pressure on iran during its final days in power. the u.s. sanctioned five companies in china and russia for their alleged dealings with iran's missile program. more sanctions on iran are expected in the coming weeks related to weapons of mass destruction and human rights. it looks as though china will not meet its target for buying american goods under the phase one trade deal. chinese imports of u.s. products slowed last month after hitting a high back in september. as of the end of october, china had bought only 44% of this year's target of $172 billion in american goods. a divided u.s. supreme court has blocked new york's governor, andrew cuomo, from reimposing attendance limits at some worship services. he wants to hold down crowds at some synagogues and catholic churches in parts of new york city that are covid hot spots. justices voted 5-4 against those limits. chief justice john roberts

joined the court's liberal wing in dissent. and shipping industry associations are calling on the world's richest person to bail them out. the problem, some 400,000 sailors are stuck on merchant vessels because of restrictions to stop the spread of the coronavirus. shippers wrote an open letter to the amazon founder, jeff bezos, to pressure global leaders to recognize sea farers as key workers. they say amazon's success relies on shippers. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quick take, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm leigh-ann garrans, this is bloomberg. anna: leigh-ann, thank you very much. germany has registered a record increase in new coronavirus cases, bringing the social just under one million and prompting an extension to the country's partial lockdown. >> the measures that were put

in place on october 28 will be continued. first until december 20 and we're expecting, and this is something that the states and federal government are in agreement on, that because of the very high infection numbers the restrictions will have to be in place until the start of january. anna: here in the u.k., the chancellor has set out spending plans as the country faces the worst slump in the economy in 300 years. in italy, the prime minister's closest advisor is calling on the e.c.b. to consider wiping out government debt bought during the crisis. let's get the latest on some of these developments, bloomberg's maria joins us now from brussels. let's start then on the german situation. as we were hearing from bilal hafeez, it's difficult to compare one part of europe with another. the lockdowns that we saw in germany were not as tough as other parts of europe, and maybe that's why it needs to be extend. different parts of europe

facing slightly different strategies from here. marie: that's why this is becoming difficult to implement . the numbers are different in every country. if you look at the situation in germany, angela merkel was very clear she doesn't like the numbers and that christmas doesn't mean restrictions have got to be lifted or can be lifted. in fact, they're now being extended until december 20. when you look at the situation in france, it's different. emmanuel macron is gearing up to reopen by december 15. you could argue the french were immersed in a second wave and they're more in a stop and go strategy. other countries haven't gotten a national lockdown. you get different situations in different countries, and still policy whiplash between member states that is making this difficult. i would say on that note there's somewhat of a diplomatic spat that is being -- that perhaps could brew over the next few days, which has to do with the skiing resorts,

what to do with them as we enter into the christmas period. this is a crucial time for skiing resorts. this is a big industry for europe, as you know, italy, france, germany, and austria all share skiing areas some. countries like austria want to go ahead and open. germans are saying they don't want it to happen. the big implication is that in europe we operate under freedom of movement, and that may implicate things better. so again, that feeds into what you were saying, it's a different measure that are making this a one approach coronavirus response difficult in the e.u. 27. anna: meanwhile, we saw the role that skiing played or skiing destinations played in the spread of coronavirus in the first part of this pandemic. on another matter, we're watching these lines coming through from the e.c.b. account, and we'll get analysis that have shortly with our next guest, but on the subject of the e.c.b., one of the other stories that's really interesting this morning near europe has been this italian call and a key advisor to the

prime minister in italy asking for or suggesting that the e.c.b. should do debt forgiveness when it comes to all of the debt bought up from european governments. what's the latest on that? maria: this is an interview by bloomberg that's generated a lot of reaction today. we're talking with one of the key aids of the italian prime minister who's put out three ideas. the european central bank could cancel some of the debt that was taken on during the pandemic. they could also exclude from the deficit calculation the money that you put forward for green policies, and they're also perhaps putting forward another idea that suggests that some of the maturities of the debt could be extended for so long, that in a practical way you end up not retaining it. i would say this is a debt that is not new, all of these ideas have been floated. what is interesting is this is coming from a member of the italian government, from someone that is close to the italian premier. this is not just some professor in a university considering or

floating ideas. i would say, however, when you look at the reaction, we have heard already from the french, the finance minister, almost pushing back against the idea saying that debts, you have to repay when you take on a debt, you assume that as a rule to repay it, and, of course, you run into a much bigger issue here, which is the opposition that you could get and probably italy will get from brussels and berlin. they've always said canceling debt is something the europeans do not allow for, but also repeat as many times the idea the best thing you could do when it comes to sustainability is the fiscal response. so a number of hurdles here for that idea that the italians are floating. anna: maria tadeo, thank you very much. i want to get next to george buckley, a economist and co-head of european economics. good afternoon to you, george. i want to come to you on the latest signs from the e.c.b. and its account, talking about how the area of recovery was losing momentum, the risks are clearly tilted to the downside

according to the e.c.b. account, also making an interesting point, and this ties into what the e.c.b. does from here. the account saying more bond buying might not have the same impact now. do we see a sort of diminishing return when it comes to the program and other quantitative easing, bond buying programs? what's your response to that line of thinking? >> certainly e.c.b. is saying that it can't exclude, for example, a double dip recession, and to be honest, i think it will be surprising if we didn't get a double dip now, so they do need to do more. they are going to do more at the december 10 meeting. of course, when you start to increase the amount of quantitative easing the scale that they have done, it is questionable whether it's doing the same amount of good. one of the reasons is you have to question why is it helpful? one of the reasons it's helpful is pushing yields down, but yields are already exceptionally low.

it's questionable just how much more they can do. of course, by taking government bonds out of the mix, we have to buy something else, and that could be very positive in financial markets. but it may have been the case that by preventing italian yields from rising even more than they did back in the early part of this year, that's had a much bigger effect when we on't have the problem. anna: what can the he want c.b. do that are within the rules that means governments can increase borrowing substantially to help their economies through this pandemic? is the e.c.b. doing exactly what it can do, the buying of government debt and that's what we've seen already, or is there call ng in this italian for forgiveness of debt, or some of the other european government debt? >> well, we were talking about earlier torked it's all about

keeping financing conditions as favorable as you possibly can. whether that means means keeping a lid on long-term interest rates, so, for example, government bonds via the program and the asset purchase program, or whether it be via short-term yields, and whether that be potentially cutting interest rates again or more likely making the generous, the lending to banks much more generous. and encouraging banks to lend that cash to the real economy, lower interest rates. so i think it's all really related to keeping interest rates lower anden couraging firms to -- and households to borrow. anna: is that going to be the focus of things from the e.c.b.? is it going to be more pet q.e. program? just looking at the lines from phillip lane today, he said there are some worrying signals in recent survey data, and this is about financial conditions or financing conditions, he

said we will recalibrate our instruments to respond to unthe folding situation and ensure they remain favorable. is there a worry the banks might not be able to do as much as governments want them to do, or central banks want them to do, to support businesses at this time? george: i think there is a worry, but i don't think we should rule out quantitative easing as being important. i suspect the european central bank did nothing to expand or extend its pepp market. the markets would be exceptionally disappointed. i think it would be better to do more. it's always better when you add all of these policies together and try to loosen in various ways a package of measures, if you will, throwing the kitchen sink at the whole problem, because the two problems is in the very near term we have g.d.p., which is likely to fall again over the winter months,

but the second problem is that inflation, even before the pandemic was being revised lower, expectations of inflation, and it's still the case that we're not expectation inflation to be above 1%. the european central bank won't be that far ahead of our forecast, 1.3, 1.4, but that is materially below what the e.c.b. would like it to be, which is close to below 2%. i think they need to do a lot in order to try as best they can to throw everything at this point to help g.d.p. and the economy through the crisis, but also to try and encourage inflation expectations higher. anna: in terms of thinking about that, we heard from the e.c.b. over the last 24 hours, he was saying the vaccine has bolstered sentiment. i wonder if you've seen that in any of the data that you look at, any of the data we're used to pouring over. does any of that suggest as we

have more concrete proof that consumers have been prepared to spend more, that the businesses have been prepared to invest more. as any of that come to pass? george: i think it's quick to see that in the data as of yet, but certainly we have seen the equity markets respond very positively to the vaccine news and also that will have an effect on some of the surveys, which measure things like expectations and analyst expectations of where things are going in the future. to the extent that the markets are responding positively, that might also be encouraging for household and firm expectations. anna: george, thanks so much for your time. george buckley of nomura. thanks very much for joining us. coming up, it is the biggest shopping day of the year, tomorrow, how retailers are transforming to a more covid-friendly solution for the

holiday season. we'll talks about black friday. that conversation coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: live in london for you, european equity markets moving to the downside, down by around

a tenth of a percent this afternoon. european equity markets are open. u.s. equity markets not open, not giving us the usual direction. u.s. futures look fairly flat. nasdaq futures point to the upside. in terms of f.x. markets, we see weakness in the euro. interesting comments from phillip lane around financing, about financing conditions in europe, and, of course, we have the e.c.b. accounts, not ruling out the double dip recession for the eurozone. let's talk about shopping, shall we? black friday marks the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, but as with everything in 2020 it's going to be different this year. covid-19 has changed the shopping experience, and america's biggest retailers and department stores are rushing to attack. here's a report. >> black friday, the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, is upon us. while retailers would normally showcase door buster deals, fully stocked shelves and a frenzy of shoppers, covid-19 has drastically changed the shopping landscape this season.

stores are rushing to adjust, offering seasonal deals earlier this year to avoid a holiday crunch. stores are bulking up direct shipping and in-store and curbside pickup with adobe analytics predicting a 40% rise in pickup shopping methods. traditional brick and mortar businesses are also focusing on shifting to e-commerce. online sales are expected to surge 33% to $189 billion, according to adobe analytics. that will mark not only pressure retailers to adapt, but stretch fulfillment networks. getting that is crucial for stores to survive. shifts toward e-commerce and contactless shopping methods could be permanent. if shoppers don't have a good experience this season, retailers could risk losing them for good. anna: that was a look at holiday shopping stateside. charles allen, senior retail analyst for bloomberg intelligence, johns us now.

i know your focus is more on europe, but just reflect on what we were hearing there on just how different this holiday shopping season is going to be compared to other years. today looks different for a start in terms of the u.s. retail space, doesn't it? charles: yeah, it's almost all the big u.s. retailers that had gradually had a few hours opening on thanksgiving, usually in the afternoon. they've decided to close, wal-mart, target, best buy, etc., will not be opening today. i mean, you can shop online if you want, but it's sort of employees that the have a holiday as well. anna: in terms of european experience, clearly black friday has become an increasing presence in the u.k. either on high street or in terms of online shopping. is that going to change this year? there's certainly pushback. the u.k. is dvent than other parts of europe. there's certainly pushback against the black friday,

amazon in particular, phenomenal in some parts of continental europe recently. charles: sort of all sorts of different things going on. i mean, in france, they postponed it for a week, including amazon, so that all the small retailers can participate once the lockdown finishes tomorrow in france. i mean, in the u.k., it's a mixed picture, obviously nonessential retailers are closed tomorrow, so you can't go to some shops. i think the other thing about this year is that when typically associates black friday with things like electronics and computers and things like that, sort of big bar bans for that. i'm sure there will be some of those offerings around, because people will have offered it. but you also have to remember that these have been really strong categories through the whole lockdown. so an awful lot of people have bought themselves a new omputer or a new tv this year.

the things that normally people would buy are not necessarily going to be in as much demand as they may have been last year. anna: the u.k. shopping experience, charles, clearly black friday has become increasingly important, but there's also a big sales phenomenon that happens on what we call boxing day on december 26. i see a headline just crossing, very timely for our conversation, headline just ossing from marks & spencer, colleagues can spend time or more time with loved ones, that's another part of the balancing act that these retailers will throw into the mix. it's about making the most of the time they are able to be open, but also mindful of the tough year that 2020 has been for many of their staff. >> yeah, and given that it falls on saturday this year, it's really quite a big

decision to say you're going to be shopping on that saturday. but yes, again, it sort of mirrors what the people in the u.s. have done and what was traditionally a holiday for shop workers as well. it then became more and more of a working day. decision to just make it an online-only promotional day probably makes sense for a lot of people. anna: we always look to illustrate in tv land, we look to illustrate these stories with images, pictures of people crowding in through doorways, try to get to the latest bargain. that simply is not going to happen. are some stores on both of these occasions going to be taking quite drastically different approaches to actually limit the number of people who can get into their shop? charles: yeah, i'm sure that they will be, and i'm sure they'll have to. there has to be concerns for

the safety of their employees as well, so you don't want 10 people crowded around every employee, even as everyone is earing a mask. i think companies like trimark have got one-way systems to go through stores. you've got to make sure there's more distancing. there's obviously more protection around all the points, things like changing rooms are either closed or under different regimes. so yes, i think this is probably even more true in some countries in europe, where social distancing will be even more enforced than it is here. anna: when we normally talk about black friday, we talk about the danger that can be posed to margins. is it going to be that same conversation again, or 2020 is just so different?

charles: i think retailers have moved on from just discounting their regular stock for black friday. once it became apparent that it s a major promotional event, they had merchandise specially for it, just as they had done for boxing day sales and things like that. the tv that you see at a really attractive price either today or on boxing day has probably been bought specially for the occasion, and the retailers will make a good margin on it. anna: charles, thank you very much. thank you for the analysis. we'll keep an eye on on that margins. charles allen of bloomberg intelligence, thank you. coming up in the next part of the program, our next conversation, we are going to be talking with a portfolio manager. we'll talk about what he's been learning through the pandemic, what 2020 has taught him as we get closer and closer to the

end of this year. this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,

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for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music) anna: 1:00 p.m. in london, 8:00 a.m. in new york from. london, i'm anna edwards. u.s. markets are closed for the thanksgiving holiday, but it's still regular trading here in europe. welcome to "bloomberg markets." european equities down by .1% right now. stoxx 600 down by .10%. difficult for the london market and the spanish market to make ground, as we see selling in energy stocks and banks. interesting moves in the pound. we heard from phillip lane over

at the e.c.b. talking about concerns around financing conditions for small and medium-sized businesses. that was an interesting story to watch last hour. 1.18 is where we trade. we drop down from the 1.19 on euro dollar t. is thanksgiving. let's kick off with u.s. politics. in the u.s., two very different messages from the incoming and outgoing presidents this thanksgiving. >> starting on day one of my presidency, we will take steps that will change the course of this disease, more testing, we'll find people with cases and get them away from one another, slowing the number of protections. more protective gear for businesses and our schools to do the same, reducing the number of cases. clear guidance will get more businesses and more schools open. we all have a troll play. beating this crisis >> every american can be united in thanksgiving to god for the incredible gifts he has

bestowed upon us, the blessings of family, community, and this exceptional, beautiful, and great country. reater than ever before. anna: contrasting visions there, contrasting assessments and priorities, i suppose, from the u.s. president and u.s. president-elect. let's talk to kathleen hunter, who covers u.s. politics at bloomberg, and joins us now. i suppose we shouldn't be surprised that the messages are so different, given the different focuses we saw in two presidential campaigns, running through much of this year. >> absolutely, and i think those different messages we saw reflected in the thanksgiving speeches that we heard, thanksgiving addresses that we heard from zprump biden now. i think that it's also important to remember that trump is the incumbent at this stage, and so he obviously is going to pant a rozier picture of how things stand in the u.s. than biden might paint. biden is going to talk about

the need to change things and make them better, and then i think in that sense, it's kind of traditional what we would spree an ingoing and outgoing president, but everything is more of a stark contrast because this is trump and biden. anna: not necessarily tip demal that sense. we are coming to the end of the trump presidency, but he is, of course, still president, and he's still making decisions, and he's still taking actions, as you would expect. to what extent is there nervousness in the democratic camp what president trump might do through december, whether that's on iran or on china or in other policy areas? >> i think there is nervousness out there. we've seen that reflected in the news stories that have come up, and i think it's a result of the reports he has considered some kind of a military strike on iran. that's not indication that would, in fact, happen, but i

think that's a question that's on people's minds, taking actions already for china, and this is all against the back drop of having major shakeups at the pentagon and the department of homeland security. and right after the election, he fired the defense chief. so i think that that is making people nervous. there's still about a month and a half that trump is going to be president, and he is going to be the one setting policy or the u.s. through that time. anna: kathleen hunter, thank you very much, with an assessment of the u.s. political back drop this thanksgiving. let's get to how markets are reacting to news from around the world today with our portfolio manager from investments, who joins us now. alberto, good to speak to you. we were having a conversation with kathleen about the contrasting assessment of where the u.s. is at the moment. when you try to look at the latest data, some of it has looked quite mixed when you look at jobless claims and retail stories not looking -- the consumer story not looking

so rosy, but other parts may be asset investment by businesses, maybe more positive. how do you assess the tough winds ahead in the u.s., alberto? alberto: there is a lot of good news in the market. the first, most important news is we have a vaccine that is going to be distributed before the end of the year, so we're going to get the first out both in the u.s. and europe. before the end of the year. and at the same time, the economy has rebounded. mobility data shows us people are out, even though there are some lockdown measures. if you take a look from 30,000 feet, it looks very much like a v-shaped recovery, but if you look under the hood and you look closely, it is a k-shaped recovery, and there's still a lot of sectors and businesses that are behind and also states and parts of the country that are behind. markets are very euphoric. we went from euphoria in

quarter one to panic, and now we're back towards euphoria. the greed index is at 88%, where 100% is maximum greed. we are definitely happy, because there are some positive developments. but our investment stance is a lot more cautious compared to march, april or may, where we were deploying capital and buying a lot of rates and assets at fire sale prices. we're a lot more selective now. anna: ok, right, i wanted to ask about you what you're seeing with your portfolio, but you mention the fear and greed index. how greedy are you for some of the more cyclical plays at this time? how tempted are you to reposition the portfolio around some of those reopening trades, the cyclical stories, the value stories, given what we know now about the vaccine? alberto: we want to position for a reopening of the economy. we have been legend money to firms in sectors that are

linked to face to face activity. for example, hotels or cruises or airlines. we want to be in the right part of the capital structure, so have a senior or secured claims on assets, and investors have been paid very well for lending through these sectors. in a world where interest rates are very low, zero or negative, and they're likely to remain low the next few months, possibly years. we like those sectors. we also like the cyclical, traditional cyclical like industrials and banks. generally i would say across asset classes, we still see some value in equities in non-u.s. markets, so europe and emerging markets, but only in those sectors. so the indirkse the benchmarks have gone a long way. they're back to pro-covid levels. so we want to be more selective. the real question is who's

going pay the bill. there's been, as you know, a lot of investment from governments, a lot of borrowing to bail out the private sector. and interest rates are capped at very low levels, but eventually high government debt will call for some measures, and we know what they are. it can either be forcing investors to receive low interest rates, negative against inflation, or higher taxes. so we see very well value in government debt at these levels. anna: if somebody has to pay, when does that paying back start? when would it be sensible to start those conversations? the i am and i am others have been urging governments to keep their cyclical caps open for the moment. alberto: if you're a bond holder in government debt, you can either lose money slowly or quickly. you lose money slowly if central banks keep interest rates low and fiscal stimulus drives inflation a little bit

higher, not to very high levels, but we're talking about a range of 1%, 2%, it.5%, which is higher than what you get paid on government debt. you lose money quick physical bond vigilantes wake up and start unwinding holdings of government debt and move into other assets. but so far central banks have leaned against this. something in the end has to give. and generally i would say we're in the first scenario, where bond holders are going to see price drops, but very, very slowly. central banks will maintain a stance, as we seen from phillip lane earlier today. our government will try to essentially borrow more at very low levels and inflate out the debt. there are also some governments that are more aggressive. we saw in the u.k. the reform about winter pricing, bonds referred to r.p.i., which was a complex indicator with a lot of flows. we'll now refer to c.p.i.

starting from 2030, and that usually pays a lot less. bond holders are not getting compensated for that change. essential medical countries may just change their inflation indicator and pay you less on your inflation-linked debt. on nominal debt, they're already paying very little. anna: ok, so those are some of the risks for bond investors. where are the bond vigilantes, al per snow do you think given -- do you think they'll come back? alberto: i think they're asleep at the moment. i don't think they're completely dead. we need to understand how much fiscal stimulus the biden administration will be able to create next year. we still have the elections in georgia with two senate seats that may be won by the democrats, and in that case, with potentially blue senate, the door to more fiscal stimulus is open. i would say that there is a lot of optimism in markets, and it's a good thing, but a lot of optimism is underpinned by very

hawkish stance from monetary policy. i think that will continue for next year. we were bull initial the period just following the virus. now we're going to be a lot more selective. and if there is a trap in the market, it's to be invested in sovereign debt. we definitely don't want that overin all our asset allocation. if you are, you want to be a lot more selective, only a few countries. a lot tougher now. anna: alberto, thank you. i think we've got a different view coming up later on in the program. really interesting to get your perspective. alberto gallo, thank you very much for your time this afternoon here in london. let's get to the first word news now, some of the big stories we're covering here at blood vessel. igh-ann: here in the u.k., london will avoid the toughest restrictions when england's

partial lockdown ends next week. the city has been placed into tier two. that means pubs, restaurants, and bars can open for business, but alcohol can only be served as part of a meal. households will not be allowed to mix indoors. now is the apparent close to a long and bitterly fought criminal case involving president trump's first national security advisor. the president has pardoned michael flynn, who had pleaded guilt toy lying to f.b.i. agents about his talks with a russian ambassador. conservative allies had portrayed flynn's prosecution as evidence of a conspiracy against the president. a cryptocurrency boom has just turned into a mini bust. bitcoin and other digital currencies have plunged by double digits. that is likely to stoke speculation about the durability of the rally. even with the retreat, bitcoin has more than doubled this year. and disney has announced 4,000 more job cuts after virus

lockdowns forced the closure of its theme parks. that takes the number of layoffs set for the next six months of the year to 32,000. more than 10% of its workforce. the coronavirus pandemic has hammered disney's traditional businesses, like studios, parks, and cruises. and the trump administration is considering a move that could boost travel. several agencies are urging the white house to lift an entry ban on non-u.s. citizens arriving from europe. it was put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, but the ban has caused big losses for airlines in the transatlantic market. global news 24 hours a day on and air at bloomberg quick take, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna: thanks very much for that, leigh-ann. coming up, managing differences. china's president glates joe

biden on his election win. we'll look at the relationship between the two countries under a new u.s. administration next. that conversation coming up here on "bloomberg markets." ♪

anna: welcome back. this thanksgiving, a special edition of "bloomberg markets." markets are trading, and we've been looking at the movers.

dani? dani: there are markets trading, but it's important we keep in mind that those that are trading, volumes are still severely depressed n. europe, volumes are off as much as 30%. keep that in mind as we look at a market that's really struggling for direction. the stoxx 600 has paired some of its losses down around .1%, but it's value. those more riskier stocks are leading the decline after posting pretty solid gains this month. traders perhaps happy with taking a pause after those november surges we saw. that same story is playing out in u.s. futures. yes, the cash market is closed for thanksgiving, but at the same time, we're seeing this trend of nasdaq doing better, those big tech things, and also the dollar getting another bid, according to fipfip, there's a big corporate bid coming in to the dela dollar before thanksgiving, and that is holding. the pound also slumping today along with u.k. stocks, falling. some different forces in here

that continue to be the two that the u.k. is really focused with. we have london is in tier two, that's going to be decided every two weeks. and, of course, brexit negotiations ongoing. finally, bitcoin down 8.5%. this comes after it was just within $7 of hitting another all-time high. it continues to be volatile. but i want to jump into the charts, because as one says, i ink put so greatly, bit konn is the comeback kid. these intense rallies followed by bear markets, according to fitz patrick, that is the characteristic that will continue to define bitcoin. that means more gains are possible from here, and perhaps that's the way to look at it technically, because if it's driven by hopes and dreams and not fundamentals, perhaps it's that pattern we should keep looking out for, anna. anna: thank you very much, dani. i wonder what the bitcoin crowd

are up to today, perhaps overdoing it on the turkey. thank you very much. we're looking at the markets. back to the geo politics. china's president has broken his silence on joe biden's election victory, sending the president-elect a message that he hopes they can manage differences. let's discuss the future of u.s.-china ties with bloomberg's executive editor for international government. really good to speak to you. many people have said their working assumption is that the u.s. government, the new u.s. administration, doesn't necessarily about-face on chinese policy at all, but that the tone of the conversation will shift entirely and will be back to the more diplomatic language of old. does that have the power to actually make quite a big difference in this bilateral relationship? rosalind: it makes things more predictable. i think one of the difficult things under the trump administration for china was that it was very hard to get a sense of what donald trump might do from one minute to the next. that made china a bit

trigger-happy, a bit overreact friff time to time. what you might find is that things are a bit more of an even keel, a politer kind of relationship, if it becomes more predictable and therefore less reactive, you might see the extremes of reaction perhaps diminishing, but that said, joe biden has every reason to be tough on china as well. in fact, he may in some areas be more so, because the democrat may not hold back from criticizing china more heavily over human rights issues, for example. so you wouldn't expect it to be a warm relationship, but it may ecome much more predictable. anna: given the questions around human rights, the way the democrats like to reference that, it might be very difficult to see a rollback of some of the sanctions put in place on china by the trump administration. i suppose we limit our expectations for change on that front.

rosalind: very much so. you can see that president trump is escalating sanctions in some parts of the world on the part of china, but also iran, libya, elsewhere. he's scattered these land mines in front of joe biden, because sanctions are on, they're very difficult to remove. you wouldn't imagine there would be much appetite in congress, either, for that to happen. because both the democrats and the republicans are likely to see the stronger stance on china needing to remain. it's very difficult for joe biden, even if he wanted to, to try to unpick that, and he probably wouldn't want to waste political capital doing so. so you can imagine those sanctions regimes will continue. what you might see perhaps a deescalation of this endless tit for tat action, and further retaliatory action does indeed slow down from here, because, of course, they need to create some space. in the early part of the biden administration, to have their next round of trade talks toward a phase two trade, which is going to be even more difficult, of course, than the

first one. anna: perhaps if we see an end to diplomacy or lack of diplomacy to communications with the chinese government via chinese media, perhaps we do revert back to something we understand a bit better, looks more predictable. what about taiwan here? this is clearly something that china views as important, that the u.s. presidents understand the chinese position on. is that an area where tensions could flare up still under a new administration, or will the new u.s. administration be very careful on that front? rosalind: you can see joe biden being more careful in taiwan. i think we've seen them making very clear that he doesn't want anyone going near that red line, and in fact, beijing will crack down further if it happens. we saw a series of high-level officials from the u.s. coming through taiwan in recent

months. you might see joe biden being a little gentle other that. the democrats have long held to the view that you don't want to provoke china too much when it comes to taiwan. there are other things to focus on. you can see the anxiety in taiwan as a result that the democrats might be soft other that issue, and they might feel less supportive. there's the anxiety that the administration may change things for them, and they will probably in turn want to see some sort of commitment from joe biden to defend taiwan if necessary. but you could see some of the heat about that issue come off the table slightly. anna: yes, and as you point out, the trump administration in its last days, sanctioning further on china and russia. just briefly, are there things you're watching in the last month or two months almost under president trump here? rosalind: the big one, aside from china, is iran. you can see a very high level of concern in parts of the middle east. iran's opponents that joe biden will come back in and try to

re-energize or breed any kind of life into the iranian 2015 nuclear deal that donald trump withdrew the u.s. from. he might at least crack open the door and try to resume some kind of conversation with tehran. and you can see that there's anxiety amongst the republicans and donald trump that that doesn't happen, hence sanctions, and there have been these reports even that the u.s. is considering whether they should undertake some sort of military strike on iran before trump leaves office, which is obviously highly remote prospect. he's sort a lame-duck essentially the next two months. it would be very odd to do so, and saudi arabia would be very fearful of retaliation in that happens. but certainly we need to watch iran very closely to get a sense of what might happen again. anna: thank you. bloomberg's executive editor for international government. still to come on the program, germany spending lockdown restrictions as the nation reports a record daily jump in

new cases and virus-related deaths reach a seven-month high. we discuss the way that markets are positioned around some of the story into the winter. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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♪ >> welcome back to the special edition of bloomberg markets this thanksgiving. european equity markets are awake, trading. we are midway through the afternoon here, european side. underwater.markets, the banking sector, the energy sector both heavily weighted in those indexes. they find it difficult to move higher. fairly flat this hour. equities, nofor trading, of course, like cash markets, but nasdaq futures point to the upside. let's get first to our news update. >> the trump administration plans to keep up the pressure on iran during its final days in

power. sanctioned five companies in china and russia for their alleged dealings with iran's missile program. more sanctions are expected in the coming weeks. related to weapons of mass destruction and human rights. it looks as though china will not meet its target for buying american goods under the phase one trade deal. chinese imports of u.s. products slowed last month after hitting a high back in september. china had bought only 44% of this year's target of $172 billion in american goods. it divided u.s. supreme court has block andrew cuomo firmer imposing attendance limits at some worship services. justices voted 5-4 against the limits. chief justice john roberts joined the liberal wing in a dissent.

u.k., a new risk within the conservative party. moving to cap the country's foreign aid budget. some conservatives say it is wrong to reduce spending on other countries but the move shows his priorities are at home rather than those overseas. and the astrazeneca and university of oxford face more questions about the coronavirus vaccine trial results. led toacturing error later stages of the trial halfi ng a dose instead of a full one. that has led to some doubts that u.s. regulators will approve the vaccine. global news 24 hours a day on air and @quicktake on twitter. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

anna: chancellor angela merkel urging germans to do more to rein in the coronavirus. with infection rate and fatalities on the rise, earlier restrictions in the nation showed little progress in slowing the spread of the disease. it has had an impact on the sort of exponential growth, not as much as had been intended. let's go back to daniel schaefer who joins us now. for the most recent news around big dealn, which is a in terms of the amount that europeans travel, and also an important role back in march. no surprise that you finds herself focusing on that. >> yes, indeed. she should talk at a european level about banning the skiing season until january 10 this

year in order to avoid such super spread of events as we've resortsaustria skiing this spring. she said she would do it, but she said it is going to be difficult to come to an agreement amid a lot of resistance, particularly from where it does have a big economic impact. >> meanwhile, we some meetings go late into the night between chancellor merkel and state out howto try to work the lockdown measures would be extended, and they have been extended into much of december. i say lockdown, but that doesn't really mean anything anymore. i'm sitting here in london, i know that we are going to be in tier 2 until christmas. records will shut at

11:00 and various other things. up -- lookhat look like in the run-up to the best of seasons? -- the festive season? >> this year, all the hotels,nts, cinemas, all the activities are closed and they will remain closed through at least december 20. one of the things that will impact the christmas season that will be changed from december 1 is that there will be tighter roofs for retail stores and shops. they will not be allowed to let as many customers in as previously in order to avoid big crowds during the christmas shopping. this has already prompted some warnings from the retail associations saying that this will lead to chaos in the run-up to christmas and huge queues in front of the shops.

that's interesting to see in comparison, it sounds a lot more like what we understand in the u.k. thank you so much, thanks for joining us. good to speak to you. i want to talk you about when it comes to the euro. let's start with when we are going to see any pushback about how strong the euro could get. have we seen that already? the euro has actually fallen off its more recent highs, just over the 119 level. are we nearing levels that start to concern the ecb? areell, surely we definitely approaching levels that we seen back in september. is struggling with

a really bad and deteriorating inflation. you start excluding potential base effects that we are going to have. that theseite likely voices are going to increase, is quite likely that they are going to step up global intervention. one really has to consider how much of an impact this is going to have. i think it is likely that is going to curb the appreciation, potentially flatten out the curve around 120, 122. but it will not be possible given the exhaustion of the tools that the ecb has done so far from the central bank to be able to sustainably talk the currency down. if we did see further quantitative easing coming from what kind of impact

will this have? i remember recently when the bank of england announced in earlier rounds, that had been currency negative. but now it is currency positive because the market, the citizenry, i suppose, has concluded that further support was desirable at this point. and is the link between qe year at this point? >> it is certainly not linear and it can be different at points in time. theously if you increase supply of money by the central bank, this is going to increase the value of your currency. correctly point out, this time around, we've actually other central banks resolving two additional quantitative easing which resulted into two things here.

first of all, the big player in the market which has taken interest rate at zero, and therefore introduce a level playing field. the second thing is that this time around, additional quantitative easing, as you mentioned, basically removes or and is the tail risk actually seen as beneficial for growth over the short term in the medium-term. this time around, i don't expect that the euro is going to react really positively unless the ecb does something for the market. expecte time, i don't that we are going to see an extension of the ecb pandemic asset purchase program. the main factor right now in the market is really the dollar and the dollar remains in a downside

trend and it will remain so over and i think months, the path of least resistance is going to remain for the upside. but at the same time, i don't think that the euro-dollar is going to be the big trade next year. >> ok. and where will we seeking interesting trade with the dollar in mind? if you think that the dollar is going to keep falling, what is the best place to play that? >> i think to be honest with you, we are going to see a ,otation toward more interest toward emerging-market currencies. especially the asian currencies. victory is a game changer, it does not need to be elaborated any further. it just puts it into a dialogue situation between the u.s. and china, and removes the threat of

additional ties. the same time, what is also interesting is that irs commits, .he market has a redaction we don't expect it is going to happen over the next months. theif that manifests, dollar-china has actually dropped significantly more than we currently expect. i think the risk is to the downside. >> so we will watch that with interest and not expect too much in terms of that comparison. we've heard from the irish foreign minister today. both emphasizing the importance of the coming days. it sounded quite short-term, the language. wonder what your expectation is. the reality of it is how important the next few hours in

the next few days are. i have been preparing for the past four or five years, that is the reality of it. i think we need to start cutting trying toe noise and establish an essential view here. both sides have made progress, they have converged. as far as we are concerned really, the important thing is how they will draft the agreement in a way that they can actually sell it politically to their internal audience. personally i think we are already positioned, and a lot of things will be kicked down the road. is going to rise alongside the dollar downside. we have to remember, there are going to be a number of structural headwinds in the u.k. at the same time, the country is

struggling with a huge -- >> ok, thank you so much. brexit,the subject of coming through from the u.k. prime minister's daily briefing, saying the u.k. is keen to identify talks and reach a deal with the e.u.m, it is up to them to decide if they travel to u.k. for brexit. perhaps the french delegation did not see a point in traveling, such was the lack of progress in their view. coming up, with the u.s. election behind us and three promising vaccines on the table, investors are positioning for what is next. we managed stocks and bonds in a low yield era. we've also been reflecting on how we best use the time between now and maybe spring, summer next year, to live a better life. we will talk a little bit about

what he has been doing to use the time that covid has afforded him. special rendition of the program because of that thanksgiving holiday, european equity markets going exactly nowhere this hour.

♪ >> welcome back to this special edition of bloomberg markets for thanksgiving.

investors have been focused on equities in the u.s. election but bloomberg opinion columnist barry writes that the overlook the fixed income part of that portfolio. to explain why, we welcome barry. he is also the host of bloomberg's masters in business podcast. great to speak to you, happy thanksgiving to you. thank you very much for joining us on this special edition. let me ask you about your thoughts on the whole bonds app this moment. we were talking to a guest earlier on who is saying that he does not want to hold bonds at this point, he does not see a reason to. what is the argument for holding it right now? >> i don't necessarily disagree with him, but the issue is, what are your alternatives? people seem to forget that bonds serve two purposes in a portfolio. one is a yield. the other purpose is to act as a

dampener -- volatility and it is much easier to write out the february-march 30 4% selloff in equities in the u.s. if you are not 100% equities. andou had some cushion, typically, that is a 70 had been 30 or a 60-40 split. it doesn't mean you should be all treasuries, and certainly not a longer duration once, but you need some ballast in your portfolio to offset the volatility of equities. >> does it provide that diversification that people searched for? is that part of the reason to hold? four should we not look at them for that? so many things seem to be correlated these days. >> look what just happened in march in the middle of that selloff. stocks plummeted. even things like preferred stocks sell just as much as equities. it becomes a safe harbor.

my the way, you don't have to only hold long-term treasuries. high-quality corporate are yielding significantly higher than the 10 year. you also could look at things like municipal bonds that have a higher after-tax yield and if you feel like you can manage your own behavior, you could shorten your duration in your portfolio, hold three-month notes instead of 10 year notes and allow yields to eventually return to normal with a plan of rolling out of 10% of the short duration holdings every couple of years as rates rise. the best solution is a bond-yield ladder, but that takes a decent amount of cash and not every portfolio is going to be able to do that. investor has their own risk tolerance. i suppose you have got to keep that in mind when we hear investors talk about going up

the risk spectrum. to see if they can find more yield. are you having a lot of conversations with people about that at the moment? >> we spend a lot of time educating clients on the fact that stocks go up and down, and that is a feature, not a bug. the reason you get a reward in equities is because there is risk involved and there are years where you're going to see substantial pullbacks 5% just about every year, 10% every other year. something like a 30% drop like we saw in 2020 comes along much more frequently than people realize. i have heard a number of people advocate for 100% equity portfolio. if you are 25 and you have a 50 year time horizon and you are not going to open your statement each month and freak out, sure. if you are a 25-year-old, you are on robinhood and getting updates every day. if you have the ability to ignore the ups and downs, you can bump up your equity exposure a few percents.

from 60-40 to go 90-10. you're going to have a hard time managing yourself the next time we see a 40% drop. >> ok. a good time to have this conversation and as interesting as it is to talk about this, i'm really interested in your blog on how you're expecting we are in the midpoints of this lifestyle we are all in during thatduring and the way people should think about spending their time. when you reflect on what we've done with last seven or eight months, are you making changes? >> i've done a number of things. to march,wn dates best estimates of the three different vaccines being distributed in some form of herd immunity is june, we are just about at the halfway point,

which is kind of horrifying to think about. what a good part of financial planning is the ability to project forward and imagine how you're going to feel when you're looking back. that june date made me stop and think, what am i going to wish i did starting now so that after the next eight months, i have something to show for it beyond, you know, being sick to death of the same four walls and walking the same few miles of trail around where i live. i have friends who want to learn to play guitar, want to learn a different language, i am pretty handy in the kitchen but i really would like to learn how to be a better chef, so i've started taking some classes and reading some books with that. some classes i took in college in astrophysics. that always intrigued me, i have been doing more and more of that. the list is endless of these things you can do in terms of,

what do you want to have to show for your 16 months of lockdown? hopefully, it is more than just boredom with where you live and some minor changes at the edges. littleiano is getting a better. it wasn't very good to start with. guestsen a number of our posting on various social media platforms, they're performing music. i suppose it is whatever makes you happy. how is the book coming along? >> you can see the cards on the wall behind me is a method of structuring. it is slow and steady progress. you have to make a concerted to do to set time aside the things you want to do. and all of us who normally would be commuting anywhere from 10 to

20 hours per week, that is found time that could best be put to work with this. it is very easy to get lost on twitter and social media and online distractions. i am building a number of breaks within my day to make sure i don't fall into that rabbit hole. i just keep trying to generate my calendar, my schedule, and get better at managing my work time, my playtime, and my self and learning time. >> thank you so much for your time, good to speak to you. walking, that is my new rediscovery. thank you so much for joining us. and happy thanksgiving to you and yours. up, we will talk -- the annual macy's thanksgiving day parade is do due to get

underway shortly. like many things this year, it will look very different. a virtual parade with performances in a closed set outside the flagship manhattan store. not quite the thanksgiving you're are used to, but still. this is bloomberg. businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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guy: 2:00 in london, 9:00 in new york. u.s. equity markets are closed for the thanksgiving in the united states. happy. welcome to bloomberg markets. let's talk about what is happening. light volume. interesting narratives developing. european stocks going sideways. -- s&pa similar story futures doing nothing right now. elsewhere the story is starting to get a little bit more interesting. euro-dollar at 1.19. are we starting to approach levels where the ecb is going to be concerned about what is happening with the currency? we have had ecb accounts, some indication concern about what lending conditions will look like. does that of the empty with what we can expect in december from the ecb?

bitcoin, a huge reversal continues. 17,000 is now the price. is there going to be a ripple into stories such as tesla? we will watch all the stories with interest. great coverage coming up the next three hours. the virus remains front and center. europe continues to grapple with the pandemic. germany is extending its partial shutdown to at least december 20 as it sees a record increase in new cases. joining us with all of the details is bloomberg's emma chandra. and: you mentioned germany, we are seeing more than 32,600 new cases in the last 24 hours in germany. that is a record increase. the number of new cases had tripled since the start of october bringing the total cases in germany close to one million. that is why we are extending -- that is why we are seeing the extension of the partial shutdown in germany until at least december 20.

and the rest of europe we are seeing more of a new wants to story. the bloomberg terminal chart will show you new cases among the major nations in europe. seeing is while those cases have surged through the end of october and through november, a lot of those are trailing off in the likes of france, great britain, italy, and spain. we are starting to see those countries change their lockdown measures, perhaps easing restrictions as we head towards christmas. guy: thanks very much. emma chandra on what is happening with the virus story. the question we are asking ourselves now as we approach thanksgiving and look at what is going to happen, are we going to see an uptick in the united states as people get together? we are seeing some loosening of restrictions in europe as we approach christmas. are we going to see a similar thing in europe and if so what is the playbook?

jordan rochester joining us to discuss this and other issues. if we see this uptick in numbers already elevated in the united states, what is the playbook? jordan: the playbook is do not overreact. what is happening in the real world than what happens in markets. considerhat we need to is does the pickup in virus cases lead to a change in the current label, which is central banks easing monetary policy, keeping financial conditions loose, and fiscal policy keeps pumping out. that will not change of the virus cases pick up your you have virus cases going up and lockdowns needed, it will lead to the fed striking a more dovish tone in december. it could lead to the ecb also being dovish. the question we have to ask ourselves, this will change the playbook when it comes to currencies is does it lead to rate cuts?

we had the fed cut rates earlier this year. the ecb avoided that. the playbook would change if in december they were look at the virus and the impact it is having and decide the best step forward is quantitative easing and a smaller pandemic emergency purchase program and a rate cut. to jury is undecided as whether the ecb will do that. the market is not thinking it will happen. if it does, it does change the playbook for the likes of the europe. i have all of my medium to long-term charts which is saying with the vaccine on the way now's the time to be long euro, time to be long countries that have underperformed during the crisis. a country that is overexposed to leisure and tourism and travel will be on people's minds when it comes to what the traits -- the trade next year when the vaccine is rolled out. we have to get through the winter. it is how long investors can ignore the virus data. with thanksgiving the risk is a

massive spike in u.s. cases. the last time i spoke you was the day before we went into lockdown and you call it a last hurrah. wednesdayurant booked -- i had a restaurant booked wednesday before went into lockdown and it was one of the busiest opentable days of the year. the day before lockdown everyone went for a dinner if we could and we saw that impacting the data. we saw 30,000 cases in the u.k. on a single day the main point from that lesson is it came off. the numbers start to fall in terms of cases for the u.k. the quest will be will that be the same for u.s.? will lockdowns be rolled out after thanksgiving to reduce the spread of the virus. it is an open question. guy: we will certainly see. it will be done on a state-by-state basis. it certainly seems we have a patchwork operating across the

united states. let's talk about some of the other issues you have raised. i want to start with the ecb. we have the accounts earlier on. about to lane is talking the fact that financial conditions are starting to tighten in the euro zone. he may be the canary in the coal mine in terms of what you discussed, the possibility we do get more from the ecb in a few days. we start thinking about a wider range of assets being used at that point. christine lagarde has talked about this. how high do you think the barrier is for the ecb to get over to have to achieve that? lane is already talking about it now. jordan: you also have a stronger currency feeding through to that credit lending conditions. still supportive, but some tightening in terms of the amount of credit tightening and standards being attached to that. what we do not want is for the

credit channel to tighten up, especially with the vaccine in the pipeline. it would be really unfortunate if we see a tightening in conditions that leads to a permanent scarring in the economy. the idea is to hope for a v and at least get a u-shaped. that is why governments have stepped in. when it comes to the ecb, that is the point. there pandemic emergency purchase program is so powerful that the likes of the peripheral spread, the spread market have tightened, allowing the sort of typical traits during a recession. during your session credit spreads widen. that is not happen in this recession thanks to the actions of policymakers. peppcb needs to make sure is stepped up your and the speeches christine lagarde made recently the focus has been on

pepp. rate cuts will be there in rate cuts tend to be talked about when we approach 1.20 in euro-dollar. the main thing i point out is but versus dollar -- actually versus the likes of china, 22% of all european traders with china, it has not strengthened much at all. it is reflective of the broad dollar weakness. i think the market is not too convinced december will be a rate cut. you have my colleague on earlier , he has a rate cut penciled in. if it does happen, it will be a shock to the system. the question i have is this a one and done or a series of rate cuts? if it does happen, it is more likely to be a one and done with next year being a reopening trade, where central banks will not need to be cutting rates, they will need to make sure fiscal will continue and have a lot of qe. guy: final quick question.

crude down a touch. lockheed being the big beneficiary. how much more is there in that trade? oil is the problem with opec trying to manage the supply side. with return to normal trade next year, i would be optimistic on energy. it would be optimistic -- it is just how much demand picks up versus the supply we think will be given. for the time being opec will be trying to make sure prices say -- prices stay sustained. i think nokia could be one of the outperformers. in terms of the return to normal trade, have to look at the likes of aussie, kiwi, those high beta currencies will likely be the one investors look at. 2009.of us are looking at you had the big commodity boost. the question is does that happen? i'm not going to call for a big commodity boom but it will at

least be in one direction, slowly drifting higher. currencies should outperform year. guy: stick around. we still need to talk about brexit. i cannot believe we gone this far without mentioning it. jordan sticking around. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: 12 minutes past the hour, live from london, this is bloomberg markets. let's talk about the u.k. assets and what is happening with brexit, the pound, and everything else. here is dani burger. dani: a quick look at u.k. markets. they are underperforming. the stoxx 600 is a story of what we have seen over the past few months and that is a confluence of factors for the region, not

just covid but brexit concerns as well. we have seen the pound to better over recent days in the past week with speculation we are getting closer to a deal today. overnight the french foreign minister says the u.k. is dragging its feet. unclear whether that deal be reached. we are seeing the pound decline but this is reversing a couple days of gains, about four days of gains. there is not a lot of volume. what that gives us is a picture of divergence. i want to dive into the charts. the pound floating around a three month high despite the fact we have seen a decline. here it is in blue. it continues to do well. says, there isly perhaps not enough risk priced into the pound. here is what risk reversals are doing. one week risk reversals now at their most bearish since september. investors perhaps pricing in that things are not as sunny as

the cash markets are saying, perhaps gearing up for any sort of hedging because the cash market is higher. more investors are saying any temporary boost we get from a deal will likely be followed by a drag lower in the pound as the coronavirus continues to hurt the economy. guy: dani burger setting up our next conversation. still with us is jordan rochester. his cash not pricing enough when it comes to the downside? the u.k. economy is taking a beating. brexit, the risk of a note yield lingers. are we really pricing that in at 1.33? jordan: dani burger set it up really well. if i look at the future positioning data, the market is not long sterling, is actually net short a small amount. the numbers are tiny. why? a lot of people have said i do not have a good idea what brexit is going to mean this year end.

let's not have too much risk. the speculative market is playing this very lightly. it is why you've seen the drift higher in cable as the chart just showed. the one week risk reversal hedging toward the one week downside. looku look the spreads, we at 26 different u.k. assets. there is a premium priced in for brexit. the trait we have had, i've had long cable looking at the 1.35 that is theto 1.36, target i have in mind in the short term. bear in mind we are talking about cable. a strong view the dollar should begin in the immediate term. that should drift cable higher along with it thanks to what the euro is doing. you have risks priced in, just not as crazy as in previous hard brexit episodes. that is because we are so used to the trade deal or the necessary steps being made at

the very last second to avoid that cliff edge. boris already threatened a hard brexit several times more recently. the market shrugged it off. that is because the base case remains a skinny free-trade agreement. it is not a game trader. -- it is not a game changer. it is a small positive and in the long-term makes little difference versus a hard brexit. is a deal should be done, it is just boring when it will happen, this week or next week. the front end of fx markets have to deal with that. i agree with the comments of dani, it does not look from cash markets that enough risk is priced in and the short term. the problem is we have had four years of it. the market has to grow thick skin to the drama and focus on the base case with a deal done with brexit in the medium term. would you fame -- would you

face the move and is there a set up for a countercyclical short-term rally in the dollar? jordan: if we have a deal, i've said when we get a deal it will be by the rumor moment. sterling will go up and trade sideways and then start to trade lower. looking at the situation with the u.s. and the congress we have come in terms of the payments in the u.s. and the lack of fit qe, it is actually hard for the dollar to rally. that is why with cable it is a tricky one to be bearish on the pound with. if you want to have a clear investment outlook, for me it is the euro. perhaps the buy the rumor and sell thefact -- and fact trait is not in sterling. if we have the return to normal trade next year you will see commodity prices do well.

which country has had the biggest hit to its economy from this crisis? the answer is where we are right now, the u.k. it will also be one of the countries we look at as the return to normal trade, even though it has brexit in the background. it is definitely a mixed picture. going to the dollar question, there is only one chart i can show you that suggest to by the dollar, which is positioning. it is everyone's favorite consensus trade, short dollar, which leads to position squeezes. we thought this week. euro went 1.19 to 1.18 in a few minutes. you will see more price action like that. i have about 40 charts telling you to buy euro-dollar and just the one chart which is speculative positioning. in fx, the speculative market is the most insignificant part. the real money flows from corporate.

central-bank data to follow as well. all of that shows continued dollar selling in the new year. we just got a deal with the speculative market that got overly exposed. we will see rotation out of the ?uro into the high beta trades guy: what is your view on bitcoin? jordan: i do not have an official view. i did hold it when everyone found it exciting, i have since then decided is not for me to mess around with. whippy is a little probably an understatement. thank very much, indeed. nrdan rochester of omura joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: happy thanksgiving. time for the bloomberg business flash. -- at thethe biscuits biggest business stories we are watching. disney has announced 40,000 new job cuts. that takes a number of layoffs set for the first six months of the year next year to 32,000 -- that is more than 10% of its workforce. the coronavirus has hammered disney traditional businesses like studios, parks, and cruises. bloomberg has learned foxconn will move the manufacturing of some apple ipads and macbooks from china to vietnam. the company is trying to mitigate the risk that a trade war between china and the u.s. may continue after donald trump leaves the white house. apples partners have already ramped up on production in india astrazeneca and the university

of oxford are facing more questions about the coronavirus vaccine trial results. error set a manufacturing led to some participants getting the half dose instead of the full one. that is your bloomberg business flash. let's take a look at the picture in european banking. francine lacqua spoke to bmps chairman a little earlier on today. she started by asking him the big question for european banks. that is, when will they be able to restart vanke dividends? -- restart bank dividends? >> shareholders do wish to have a dividend. this is normal. they allocate capital to the bank, we use the capital they put in the bank, and they want to be rewarded if it is possible. made by thedecision ecb has been broadly well

understood in springtime. it was a high level of uncertainty. nobody knew what was going to happen. even if it came as a big negative surprise, it was part of the negative news out of the covid crisis. to a large extent, investors are not positive. i think most of them have understood. the question is a decision made by the ecb, the recognition they will give in december. today we are still in difficulties. there is a second wave of contagion everywhere in europe and in the world. there are difficulties, lockdowns, and the reopening of the business is moving forward, but there are still difficulties. i think there are still levels

of difficulties. i think there is more certainty. we understand better what is going to happen. we understand the risk. we understand the challenges we , and in the dialogue with the supervisor he has all of these questions. i hope this understanding will help the decision-making by the ecb about the recommendation to give in december. francine: do markets have to be less exuberant given we are not sure when a good chunk of the population will be vaccinated? once more, on the vaccine, i think there is light at the end of the tunnel. i am very confident scientists are developing vaccines which are going to help a lot. people who go through this virus crisis.

there will be one. questionsere are many about protection, about distribution, about the impact. immediatenot expect impact. it will take some time. at least there is a light. that is what is very important. this is well understood by the market. of bnp paribasan speaking to francine lacqua earlier on. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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the toughest coronavirus restrictions, but england's partial lockdown ends next week. the city has been placed in tier two, meaning pubs, restaurants, and bars can open for business. households will not be able to -- it looks like china will not meet its target for buying american goods under the phase one trade deal. china's imports slowed last month after hitting a high in september. at the end of october, china has bought only 44 sets of this year's target of 172 billion dollars worth of american goods. u.s. supreme court has blocked new york governor andrew cuomo from imposing attendance restrictions at worship services. andrew cuomo wants to hold down crowds at some synagogues and catholic churches in parts of new york city. justices voted 5-4 against the limit.

chief justice john roberts joint to the court's liberal wing in dissent. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. focus on thee coronavirus crisis. u.s. authorities say airline passenger numbers reach their highest point since mid-march as americans fly for the thanksgiving holiday. all of the travel could worsen the pandemic. joining us is johns hopkins senior scholar. thanks for joining us on thanksgiving. what is your expectation in terms of the uptick we could see in k's counts in the united states as a result of all of this travel and gathering we will see. >> based on airports, travel patterns, mobility, and peoples desires to get together with their families, is inevitable we will see is he to be an uptick,

maybe 10 to 14 days after this that will end up leading to more hospitalizations and more hospitals worrying about capacity. if you look at the canadian thanksgiving about a month ago, we saw that same type of phenomenon. i think we will have the same phenomenon in the united states in a system already feeling a lot of stress from covid patients. thatu think as a result of we will see tighter restrictions in terms of social mobility? tightere we do not have restrictions. i hope we can understand many people would be affected at -- privateherings health cannot reach into peoples homes like a restaurant or a bar. it is important we understand how people are getting infected and target only those activities in which people are getting infected. this has to be a sustainable approach and we are facing a lot of pandemic fatigue in the

united states. we want to make sure we are doing the most measured types of actions that do not cause ancillary damage to keep our hospitals out of crisis. problem is we do not have a way to reduce the harm from this virus without home testing and i am hearing a lot of discussion about home testing nobly that is something that is allowed to move forward prior to the vaccine. you think the change in tone from the incoming administration will have any effect? dr. adalja: i think the change in tone will have a dramatic affect. we know the highest levels of our governments evaded, misinformed, and lied when it came to covid-19. it can only get better with the change in teams. if you look at what the transition team has articulated, it is what many of the same of us in the field have been articulating since january. finally we may have a pandemic response on track to get some

level of control of this virus. guy: i have heard over the last few days, "light at the end of the tunnel" it seems we are starting to understand how long the tunnel is. what is your sense of how long the tunnel is? dr. adalja: the tunnel is several months long. if you think about the united states, we are looking mid-2021 for them to have the vaccine. health-care workers may start to get the vaccine next month, but it will be in small numbers. we have to think about trying to control the spread using social distancing, washing hands and wearing face coverings and avoiding congregate settings. this will go on well into 2021. there are lights at the end of the tunnel, but as we said, there is a long tunnel we still have to try verse -- have to traverse and a lot of people died during that time and a lot of hospitals will worry about capacity. guy: in terms of the new

administration, what is your sense of their ability to handle what is going to be a huge undertaking in terms of getting the vaccine rolled out, particularly the mrna version of the vaccine, considering the temperature restrictions required to keep that stable? dr. adalja: no matter who is in charge it will be a herculean project, one of the biggest health measures ever done in this country or the world. it will require a lot of ordination and challenge. it is good the trump administration is allowing the transition team to meet with those individuals and allow the handoff to be seamless. speed, of operation warp this is one of the bright spots and oblique pandemic response, there is a lot of work that has been done, a lot of logistics with u.s. military, with ups, with the company that delivers products to hospitals, i am confident this can be done. it is challenging with the visor candidate. cold.uires an extreme

that will take extra steps. ups is making freezer farms in places like kentucky so they can distribute. the other vaccines are less logistically tricky but it is likely the pfizer vaccine be the first to be put in the arms of americans. there will be hiccups. it will not go off without a flaw. it is questionable how well states can deliver the vaccines. do they have the funding to set up distribution channels? all of that will be important. it will not been easy thing and we should expect there will be holdouts and issues with the supply chain, but i do think this looks to be a robust process and hopefully it goes off without a hitch as fast as possible. guy: thank you for joining us on thanksgiving. we appreciate it. of johns hopkins university. he also works with the bloomberg school of public health with

michael r. bloomberg -- which michael bloomberg supports. coming up, we will talk shopping. amazon backlash. that is a phenomenon in your. retailers are getting ready for black drivers but the e-commerce giant is in europe's bad books. we will find out why, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: this is bloomberg markets. happy thanksgiving. retailers all over the world are getting ready for black friday, but amazon has ended up in europe's bad books. in france, the e-commerce giant has agreed to postpone the event until shops reopen in december. union has polished

striking amazon warehouses for the biggest shopping day of the year. joining us now is maria tadeo. walk us through why this is happening. maria: there are a number of reasons. the first i would say is obvious. it has to do with coronavirus and the lockdown. if you have a clothing store, if you're a bookshop, you have not been able to do your normal business hours, you're not making the money you hope you would've made and your revenue has plunged, you're still having to expand the rent of your store in the office space you take. on the flipside, what you look at the business for amazon it has rocketed under coronavirus. being reflected in the market cap of the capital -- of the company but also the personal wealth of jeff bezos. that is something for the small companies of europe but governments also have to react to this.

they can tell a small companies do not have the same amount of distribution. they do not have the same means a u.s. company would have. that is being reflected in some of the measures the french government has put forward forcing amazon to delay black friday so there would be fair competition for everyone. there is a huge debate happening on the tech and taxation. the europeans do feel the american should be paying much more and they should play under the playbook. a lot of different issues but the pandemic hitting a number of countries in europe your -- in europe. guy: is this becoming a populist issue? you noted matteo salvini was talking about this in italy. we also have barcelona talking about this as well. is this something populist parties are starting to talk about and using as a point of

attack? do, because it taps into the anchor we are seeing and we are going to see. by the spring of 2021 we are .oing to see companies go down the moratoriums we are seeing on payment are going to disappear. we will also see unemployment level likely go up. you have a group of people unhappy, that feel they are not being treated equally, that american companies does get some advantages they do not get and whether this is a national or regional election, it is a market of people that is something they want to tap into. for the government, it is difficult to handle. they are trying to appease everyone, but they will have to decide whether you are funded company or not and some will have to go down. guy: thanks for the update.

maria will be rejoining us later on. as with everything in 2020, black friday will be different. covid-19 changing the shopping experience and america's biggest department stores are rushing to adapt. bloomberg's ritika gupta has the details. ritika: black friday, the unofficial start of the holiday season, is upon us. while retailers would normally showcase doorbuster deals, fully stocked shelves come into frenzy of shoppers, covid-19 has drastically changed the landscape this season. ,tores are rushing to adjust offering seasonal deals earlier in the year to avoid a holiday crunch. stores are bumping up direct shipping and in-store and curbside pickup with adobe analytics predicting a 40% rise in pickup shopping methods. traditional brick-and-mortar businesses are also focusing on shifting to e-commerce. online sales are expected to search 33% to 189 billion dollars according to adobe analytics.

that will not only pressure retailers to adapt but will stretch fulfillment networks across the u.s.. getting that change is crucial for struggling stores to survive. industry analysts warn that shift towards e-commerce and contact us shopping methods could be permanent. if shoppers do not have a good experience, retailers could risk losing them for good. previewing gupta black friday tomorrow. for more on this across the atlantic, let's bring in bloomberg intelligence senior research analyst and bloomberg's emma chandra. how big a deal is black friday in europe? it came about 10 years ago. --has not embedded itself has it embedded itself in our cultural identity? emma: is an american import. it started because we had amazon go after the big black friday deals.

amazon the transatlantic company we all came to know and i put a lot of pressure on companies in the u.k. and the rest of europe to follow suit and offer deals. it has been something we've seen a number of companies adopt as a way to get shoppers into store. there is some evidence to say it is starting to wane in terms of its popularity. information from price waterhouse cooper coming out saying u.k. spenders are less likely to spend this year on black friday. only 40% looking for particular deals this time around. that can also have a lot to do with lockdown fatigue, the fact that a number of stores have closed. we are starting to see a weighting of interest in black friday in europe. whether or not we will see the end of it, whether 2020 will see the end of black friday in your remains to be seen. it is not as big as in the u.s., certainly. let me bring you

into the conversation. when i was growing up we would wait until the boxing day sales or the new year's sales. there was a lot up to christmas -- there was a raptor christmas that would allow -- there was a run up to christmas that would allow retailers to make money. now black friday -- how difficult is that for retailers? there are a lot of promotions around and things like that, but these are plan promotions, just as many of the boxing day ones are. people are planning to make a profit on black friday. the bigger problem is arguably peak how you created this at the end of november which drags a huge amount of business from early december to that peak and then you get the build up to christmas, the after christmas and new year's sales everywhere.

not think you should see black friday as it was in 2013 just discounts instead of full priced sales. guy: is it starting to fade? charles: it is difficult to know. this is a very unusual year. i think one thing you have to is during lockdown we saw what you might say is traditional black friday items like laptop computers, home appliances, televisions, some game consoles and things like that all sold well over the summer. i am not surprised. if you bought a laptop in june, you are not going to buy another one in november. i think it will have to be more than one year before we see that. it is part of the planned promotional calendar. who willl be retailers

be sitting down next week and planning what their promotions for next year's black friday will be. guy: nice to look at pictures of people out shopping, not wearing masks, normality, feels like a distant past. contrast the experience on both sides of the atlantic. emma: it is difficult to compare and contrast looking at 2020. certainly in years gone past, i used to spend black friday standing outside macy's on herald square in the center of new york and we would be looking at thousands of shoppers going into the doors, long queues through the morning. that is perhaps what we will see on both sides of the atlantic this year with black friday. more and more people buying online. talked about curbside pickup your we are also looking

to see online shopping to hit a record in terms of the amount of items and the value of those items being bought. not just on black friday. artainly in the u.s., it is whole holiday shopping weekend. it gets going after people of their thanksgiving dinner today, then into black friday tomorrow, over the weekend, and do not forget monday is cyber monday, that is when we are expecting to see the highest number of transactions. will leave it there. emma chandra and charles allen. thank you very much indeed. coming up, the bitcoin roller coaster. the strength of the crypto boom in the latest bust coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: live from london, i'm guy

johnson. happy thanksgiving. bitcoin on track for its worst day since may. the route just hours after bitcoin rose near its record highs. joining us to discuss the boom and the bust is dani burger. in terms of the impact the turnaround will have, how are investors likely to take it? will it be a blip or do you think this is something more serious? dani: even though some of the weakness may have been driven around concerns of u.s. regulation, i think it is difficult for investors to write bitcoin off. bitcoin is the comeback kid of the market. we see any weakness, even extreme bear markets can be met with rallies. more people participating it bitcoin. wall street is interested i am not the biggest fan of technical analysis. perhaps it does make sense to

look at for bitcoin, because it does seem to be driven more by hopes and dreams than fundamentals. patrick from citi points out bitcoin has these intense rallies followed by bear markets , followed by another intense rally. that boom/bust cycle will continue and history will continue to play out, than today is just a blip. if today is the start of a bear market, that does not mean it cannot come back later. eddie, he has up recently changed his view and what will happen in gold. gold falling out of bed of last few days. is there connection with what is happening? people often compare them but is the comparison valid? dani: eddie is a fantastic barometer for what is going on in the markets. there are people who have started to question gold as a value trap. we have seen it in the etf markets.

the etf market is starting to capitulate when it comes to gold. bitcoin is still too volatile to be seen as value at the moment. if the volatility comes down, than it does become a serious contender to gold. at the moment we also need to see more products come to the market that are more regulated. for example the etn, the exchange traded market has a lot in europe. they are not allowed in the u.s. the u.k. put new regulations that make it very difficult to launch anything volatility coming down and more of the products are key to see bitcoin start to challenge gold. through you walk me what that regulatory concern was in the states? do withrt of it has to protecting retail investors. we have seen concern about leverage, and in the u.k., the same story, concerned about protecting retail investors that

think bitcoin is too volatile and too much money can be lost. guy: great update. dani burger on bitcoin. to continueortly the discussion in the markets. what else we have coming up? chris watling will be joining us. we will get his take on the ,ecent volatility we have seen particularly around value stocks. we will also get his take on the pound. chris will be joining us shortly. this is the state of play in markets. light volume. it is thanksgiving. happy thanksgiving. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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guy: 3:00 p.m. in london, 10:00 a.m. in new york. i am guy johnson. u.s. markets are closed for thanksgiving in the united states. this is what markets look like right now. european equities going nowhere in a hurry. below the surface, the rotation, the rotation of the rotation continues. technology is leading, up by around 1%. the cyclical sectors are underperforming. energy, insurance, the mining sector coming under pressure. u.s. futures are telling us we are going nowhere as well. not much action there. euro-dollar starting to alarm the ecb a little bit. bitcoin now trading with a 16 down by 11%.6, europe continues to grapple with

the pandemic. shutdownxtending its to until december 20 as it sees a record increase in new cases. joining us now with more what is happening in germany, emma chandra. emma: a record increase. we have seen new cases in germany triple since the start of october, with the total number of cases approaching one million in germany. the lockdown is going to be extended until at least the summer 20th. we are not seeing a tail off in new cases in germany, as had been hoped with the reintroduction of restrictions. this is a more nuanced story when you look at other european nations. the bloomberg terminal chart shows you how we saw european cases surging through the end of october into november, but they are starting to tail off. not in germany, but they are

starting in france, u.k., italy, and that is what we are seeing from those nations, is this discussion about what they are going to do about the restrictions that were reintroduced. u.k. is going to be in tears again. emma: let's talk about france. we heard from president macron, one of the strictest three introductions of restrictions. they will be easing from this week, from saturday. in the u.k., we will see england lockdown. it is a more nuanced issue in new england because of the different issues but it is due to end on wednesday and what we will see is that reintroduction of the tiered systems with different cities and regions put into different tiers. london has avoided the toughest restrictions, being put in tier 2. pubs and restaurants, as long as

they are secure, they will be able to reopen on wednesday. guy: emma chandra with the latest in europe. watling,s now, chris longview economics ceo and chief economist. , etc. likely to drive an uptick in the virus case counts. but the markets are very much focused beyond this, they are focused on the vaccine story and life beyond covid. has that gone too far? very: it has been dramatic. you have seen some of the numbers are quite extraordinary. the energy sector yesterday, up just short of 40% in the month of november. quite extraordinary, some of the sector moves and rotation. major turning points in market when you get a. major shift in leadership you tend to get --

long,med so poorly for so and you get a scramble to start moving into the short. i think that is behind why the move is so dramatic. having said that, there is quite a lot of speculation in the very near term, and you can see that in terms of the level of auction buying and some of the moves we have seen. i think -- as i look at some of our indicators, the markets have become very green on a short-term basis. i think this is the start of a very major medium-term, long-term move, but i suspect we need a very serious pause of breath before we get back to some of that excessive greediness that has creeped in. guy: potentially better entry points, still to come? chris: maybe better entry points then today, but not better than

what we had at the beginning of november. guy: in terms of how you manage this process, there is going to be -- at the moment, everybody is kind of all in on one trade, and that is the areas that are most beaten up. travel sectors are getting a lot of bid. i look at what is happening here, and i look at the trends that have changed as a result of covid, and i worry about the movesity of some of those -- sustainability of some of those moves. isn't there a case to be made now for a little more nuance being taken? the travel sector in particular is still in a position where they will have to raise significant amounts of cash, and that is likely to be diluted. chris: their way -- there may be -- some of these

beaten up sectors get cleaned up a bit in the next 12 months. there are the guys who win in the sector and pick up business from the guys who go bankrupt. the so-called winners. there may be something in that, and at a major turning point, everything goes up. stuff,t uninteresting from a fundamental point of view. there is a bit of that initially. it is the trade of the month, and it is becoming the investment seen, but these things don't happen in a month. these things take multi-quarters, multi-years. nobody likes the banks. they are not interested in owning banks and haven't been over the last few months, and they are still not convinced. genuinely change the nature of gdp growth, add more

inflation, we expect rising volumes from here. yes, you can be nuanced, i the investment story has just begun, and it is a pretty dramatic opening. that's all. guy: let's talk about a couple things you focused on. bond yields. in order to get confirmation of this move we are seeing at the moment, do we need to see bond yields rising? at the moment, they are not really. bits andis kind of change. we are trying to get up around 1%, but it feels like a struggle. if we can't get there, does this move into value run out of steam customer -- run out of steam? chris: i would say it is quite a move already. we are now 80 and change, and moving higher.

that is quite a move on the percentage of the basis points. 1.5%.d to get to the biggest risk to this equity butet is not a steady move, a dramatic move higher in volume, over six or nine months. there is so much stimulus in the pipeline, so much cash in people's bank accounts, growth being strong next year. volume at 80 bits seems to be the wrong level to me. on top of that, the positioning of markets is completely wrong. everybody is long 10 years and 30 years. it is an enormous amount of risk. think we would have some challenges in the open market. guy: focusing on the banks, you

told us about european banks. philip lane, the chief economist at the ecb saying earlier today, that it is essential, not to let the yield curve steepen prematurely. there is also this ongoing resistance, certainly at the central bank and ecb to allow dividends to be paid at this point. i would say, the one trade we've got on is a widening of u.s. treasury yields. there is a much stronger case for treasury yields. will back up toward zero but they won't be as far as treasury yields because the demographics are much more favorable of a younger population. there is much more

consumer spending and consumer credit culture in the u.s. the spread should widen. if you look at the eurozone yieldswith u.s. treasury -- i would argue because of the ecb, it is somewhat of an artificial market and is not helped by the demographics. i understand what lane is saying. you don't want the yields to back up too quickly. it has to be orderly. i think the key here is what happens to the 10 year u.s. yield. guy: stick around, chris. we need to talk about what is happening in the u.k., brexit and the spending review. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: live from london, i am guy johnson. this is bloomberg markets. the irish euro minister making some comments on brexit. brexit talks at a critical junction. very little time left. i'm pretty sure i've heard that before. let's figure out where the markets are, when it comes to brexit. here with the details is dani burger. dani: this sort of roller coaster ride continues to impact assets. some speculation we have seen over the past week, that we were heading closer to a trade deal helped to send the pound up for four consecutive days. you can now see sterling down about 4/10 of 1%, versus the dollar. i wanted to point out this

divergence we are seeing in europe versus u.k. assets. trading is light because of the u.s. holiday, but this continues to emphasize the dual risks that the u.k. will have to deal with. the economy and the effect on the economy of covid. the u.k. has been very hard hit, as well as brexit risks. you can continue to see what is happening in the cash sterling market what is -- versus what is happening underneath. i want to dive into the charts. this diversions has been occurring over the past week. this is a virus flareup from europe. we have seen the pound continue to gain. it is about a three month high. one week risk reversals are at a september level of bearishness. the offshore market is saying the pound is going lower and wants to protect itself against one week, where the cash market is not saying that. the cash market is not pricing in enough of the risk that we

don't have a deal. there is the chart and that divergence. guy: better late than never. dani burger, on what is happening with sterling. chris watling joins us from longview economics. chris, do you sell the pound here? it seems we have a bunch of risk coming into view. we still don't know what is going to happen with brexit. we saw the dire economic projections from the charts lest -- from the charts yesterday. i guess the u.k. could be well-positioned. chris: everyone is well-positioned. the u.k. has the special factor of brexit. clearly the currency has rallied in part, because the dollar has been going down against everything over the last few months. i think brexit has its own sort of special interest in the u.k.,

and markets are very forward-looking. it, we areink about going to get to a deal. i think the market expectations are relatively robust for a deal to come through. no doubt we will get a little pop on the announcement of the deal when it happens. we do know that it is supposed to be last week and this week and now it is supposed to be next week. we will probably get a small pop on that. we are at quite a key level for sterling. it has been quite a resistance level, a number of times. we have only been above it once over the past few years. andre quite close to that, we popped above it briefly over the announcement. i think that is an opportunity to sell sterling because fundamentally, we know it is as good as it could look and brexit is a bit of an impediment in the medium-term. it has also performed very poorly relative to the rest of the world.

our gdp numbers as well, some of the worst. our bearishness on sterling has become a consensus sentiment. you want to lean against that. you have an interesting resistance level, and i don't think the u.k. is going to be outperforming the u.s. economy. average theoking to short positions on the pound with the dollar. guy: cannot come back to that thee of how beaten up british economy has been, by covid? there was a lot of consumption in the u.k., a lot of hospitality. a lot of that has certainly been a result of covid. in theory, that should make it one of the bounceback trades, shouldn't it? chris: that is true. there is something to be set for that, but i think our approach to lockdown and health care, to be fair wasn't that good in the states. you could make that argument.

the real issues -- thee london related, real challenges that the economy faces. of course there has been a -- there is a bit of cash in. bank accounts. that will help -- in bank accounts. that will help. bad would a no deal brexit be? it does seem as if you could put a very thin piece of paper between a deal or no deal. manufacturing would certainly suffer. one of the areas that has actually stood up during the covid crackdown. how bad would it be? the bank of england is suggesting it could be even worse, in terms of its impact than covid. think the real challenge is short-term. they will get all of those cues and the paperwork, what will

happen to the financial sector? a lot of uncertainty as to how that is going to pan out between equivalents or not equivalents, between the city of london. i think we are struggling in terms of supply chains and financial services. i think it would be a real issue for this economy over the course of the next six to 12 months. that is clearly a u.k. specific risk, that has had knock on effects as well. i think it could be quite serious. guy: on that note, we will leave it. chris watling of longview economics. just getting some numbers through from andrew cuomo. new york reporting 6493 new positive cases. that being tweeted now just a moment ago. that is a pickup of around 1000,

versus yesterday. new cases for the first time, picking up quite sharply. hospitalizations now above 3000. what we've got coming up for you, a brewing diplomatic spat over skiing. the german chancellor, angela merkel, pushing for european ski resorts to be shut down this winter, due to the pandemic. not everybody is on board. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: live from london, i am guy johnson. a diplomatic spat over european ski resorts is now brewing. german chancellor angela merkel basically said they should all be shut down for the time being, to rein in the virus outbreak on the continent. joining us now from brussels is maria tadeo. not everyone agrees.

how big an issue is this? theydon't agree, -- maria: don't agree and this would seem almost like a parody if we were not in the midst of a pandemic. it is becoming an issue between four countries, germany, austria, italy and france. theyerman viewpoint as believe resorts -- resorts should not be operational. angela merkel believes we could see a third wave after the christmas holiday. she also pointed out one of the lessons we should take from the summer is that opening up too much and too quickly is public that it. the austrians say they do not fully agree with this. they have taken the measures, and they want to open. they also signaled that if you are a resort and are not able to open up this year, not able to do a normal event, you will turn to the state and up to mentally -- optimally the government is going to have to pay for this. it is also leading to some surreal regulation coming out of european governments.

today the french government said they would go ahead and open, but the cable car that takes you to the top of the mountain, that would not be able to be operational as useful -- as usual because that means too many people in an enclosed space. if one country decides to open, the neighbor says they don't want to, but this is just some surreal regulation coming out of this. it is difficult for people to follow. probably not so good. to a moret to turn serious issue. we are starting to get comments coming through out of hungary, that they were to accept the eu plan that parliament does not. they joined ace -- they signed a joint statement on the eu budget, saying that the eu must separate the rule of law debate from the spending plan. how does this get resolved

because at the moment, the seven year budget plus the attached rescue plan is going nowhere. anda: it is going nowhere, that december 10 meeting is looking more complicated by the minute. there are a lot of issues that leaders will have to deal with. you are looking at a potential veto on thential recovery plan. -- countries they do want to see this recovery fund operational by january. to see a separation between the funding and the rule of law. they see one as a purely economic one and the other is about politics and ideology. they don't agree with the liberal view of the world. -- likepean union is the netherlands, very liberal democracies of europe that made it clear that they are not

paying a cent if it is unchecked. it comes down to my -- it comes down to angela merkel ended it -- and it is difficult to see how you compromise right now. guy: you wonder what the plan b is. we may find out after the meeting on the 10th. thank you very much, maria tadeo. to -- coming up, we talk more about what is happening with the ecb, the ecb stimulus plan luring investors into the euro zone. we talk about the accounts, and those comments that came through from peter lane. bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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optimism that the end of the pandemic is insight. for investment grade and high-yield debt are retreating. peter, let's talk about the sustainability of this move. over the last few days, we have seen carnival able to come to market and raise money unencumbered. it was able to do it without having to put ships up as collateral. lufthansa was in the market as well, raising money and doing relatively well. i am wondering whether or not you think these are sustainable as you worry that the long, hard winter we are all facing could undermine them. was the keyaccine turning point here. that means this prospect of societal normalization in the summer of next year are very high. that means that the covid

afflicted sectors such as carnival, lufthansa, they really do have the opportunity to get back to some sort of normality on their top lines. what we then need to see and really assess over the course of at least the first half of next year is these accommodative financial conditions, are they going to be used correctly? are they going to be used for balance sheet repair, or is it just a case of loading up for more debt. if it is the latter, we will have a rally in the first half of next year, but then it will stall out. what we think is that there is going to be a significant mount of balance sheet repair, and that is going to mean that credit markets continue their outperformance of equity markets , and then they will go and reach the tightest spreads since the great financial crisis. in terms of the danger around that thesis, a lot of

companies, as you say, have raised an awful lot of money already, and there is this fear that if the economy doesn't pick up sharply enough, that balance sheet repair not be viable, and as a result of which, these companies are not really going to be able to cover their costs on the credit side. , andig a threat is that how granular are you going to need to become in terms of picking individual credits and working out who is going to be able to manage it and who isn't? peter: that is a super question. i think the ecb will have a major role to play in assessing the type of financial conditions they are creating, and whether or not it is turning to be problematic, whether or not the incentive structure is incorrect. it will mean that the value in real detailed digging and analysis of corporate balance sheets comes right to the surface.

that is going to be where the alpha generation is next year. i think there's going to be a lot of performance from beta if our thesis is right that we need to add alpha to that. some fundamental credit analysis is going to be super important here. guy: where do you see the areas you want to be? get granular down at a sector level, and maybe even down to individual credits. there is a lot to choose from out there, and it is pretty clear that covid has accelerated a bunch of trends that aren't going to have a meaningful impact on business models. look at the risks facing us now for next year, i have to say that covid is not one of those, or it is just a small component of that. i have that feeling of confidence because of the vaccines. the only risk i see which could have covid coming back under the vaccines are not

accepted by society, if there is a big anti-vaccine movement. otherwise, the main risk factors geopolitics,ut about the possibility that corporate's don't the right things and repair balance sheets , so actually i feel very comfortable in picking the covid afflicted sectors. let's take airlines, for example. i think the recovery for those will continue. themes, and sort of i would recommend long in the covid afflicted sectors and recommend i would doing those positions, being long those positions against the low betas, looking for continued spread compression. i think that is going to be a theme for the first half of next year. just about a month of really good performance. i think it's got a long way to go yet, probably six months.

guy: let's just stay with this theme and think about what is going to happen. changedg that covid has his business his appreciation of how many times they need to put their people on the road. airlines traditionally a lot of their money at the front end of the plane, particularly those that cater on the north atlantic, for instance. even if we see 20% to 30% of that business disappearing, that is going to have a massive impact on the ability of these businesses to make money. how does that factor in? the pandemic has changed a lot of behavior. some of that behavioral change is going to stick. peter: indeed. when we have done our analysis, we have not assumed a normalization of topline for the afflicted sectors at all during 2021. what we have done is looked at the revenue paths and assumed that we have forecasted a revenue paths based on our macroeconomic assumptions and

forecasts, which doesn't see the revenues getting back to normal until almost 2023 for some of the afflicted sectors. taking that into account in looking at where they can raise debt, where they can issue equity if they choose to, that is how we still come to this picture of outperformance for many of these sectors. really, we are looking at the lowest risk ones as being the best value right now on a market neutral basis. some of the people i know in sales before the crisis, they were flagging to me that some of the stuff that was going out the door, the covenants that were attached to them were really not designed to provide that much .rotection to investors very light covenants being applied. i wonder as we go through a

rolling period in which defaults may not spike as they traditionally have done, but just continue at a more elevated level, which is probably looking more and more likely, how protected are investors going to be in terms of recovery rates? what do you see recovery rates looking like? peter: so far, recovery rates have really surprised to the downside. i think the point you make there is extremely valid, and it is why doing your full fundamental and legal research on the higher risk names is absolutely crucial here. the way i think next year is going to pan out is that there is going to be this selection notess whereby if you are overly financially engineered, haven't issued these covenant light structures, and are simply trading at a wide premium because of the sector you are

in, or you have lost an ig rating, gone into crossover or wider into high-yield, but you are still viable once society normalizes, then those are the businesses, those are the names inch are going to perform quite a powerful way the first half of next year. but we are still going to have this backdrop in the weaker names, in the ccc kind of area where there is still going to be a lot of risk and we are still going to be realizing quite elevated default rates with quite low recoveries, and i think that is just a fact. but don't forget the amount of investors there are with very deep pockets that are going to be chasing returns, and particularly in european fixed income because the story for next year is not just about the return to relatively normal

spreads are much of the credit market. it is also about the cyclical recovery in many currencies, the euro being a key one for that. as the euro appreciates, more and more investors are going to be coming into european assets, and that is going to mean the wall of liquidity which is been chasing european assets in the past six months is going to be growing. emea will have a degree of mispricing developing over the course of next year. guy:guy: peter, thank you very much indeed. peter chatwell of mizuho. astrazeneca and oxford facing mounting questions over there covid-19 vaccine candidate after acknowledging a manufacturing error. we are going to talk more about this next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets." the coronavirus resurgence is making it an unhappy thanksgiving for many new york. hospitalizations are now over 3000. in the united kingdom, london will avoid the toughest coronavirus restrictions when england's partial lockdown ends next week. the city has been placed in tier two. that means pubs, restaurants and bars can open for business, but alcohol can only be served as part of a meal. the trump administration is considering a move that could boost transit lentic travel. several agencies have -- boost transatlantic travel. several agencies have recommended a lift in the band

noncitizensban from coming from europe. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. let's stick with the virus and vaccine development. development questions mounting over astrazeneca and oxford's vaccine candidate after they acknowledged a manufacturing error that affected trial results. joining me with more from london is sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence director of emea research. who messed up here? somewhere between the oxford vaccine group and the manufacturer, which obviously was the people who make the viral doses, and then fill and finish them. somewhere in that group,

possibly involved in the clinical trials organization, if there was one involved, that is where it has gone wrong. it is not like a batch was made and it was only half active. --y little real gave people they literally gave people a vial that had half the dose in it. it was the issue with half active, that is a bit more concerning. but i don't think that is the case. astra can't be thought of i think as really guilty here. some ways, this was serendipity. it allowed a higher efficacy rate to be generated. how will this problem with the dosing affect acceptance of the vaccine? there was much criticism earlier on this week from the united

states, some suggesting it wouldn't be given approval there. sam: i am going to go as far as you have. this hasn't proven anything. aboutou know much more that group of people who apparently gave -- i am choosing my words very carefully here -- apparently gave 90% efficacy, then we can start deciding whether it was the half dose, full dose thing that drove it, or whether it was because they were younger patients, healthier patients, or because we have enough numbers in those group. that is something we still have to figure out, which is why i suspect there's all these question marks not just from the u.s. guy: what needs to happen? does this need fixing? how does it get fixed, and how does it get put right? sam: this combined group of brazil and the u.k. trial, up to

about 23,000 people in it, what we can do is get to the end of it, subtract the half dose/full dose people, and go on what the trial was designed to test, which was in fact the opposite hypothesis, high dose followed highw-dose, and also two doses, and see what that shows us. if this group has any other reason to explain the 90%, you go back in another trial and test that. you can't run away assuming that have those doses are what we should give people. you can't make that decision for 2 billion people on the basis of a 3000 patient outcome. in terms of why this is important, and to get an idea of the scale, how much of the world is relying on this type of vaccine, the j&j vaccine, as opposed to how much of the world

is likely to rely on the newer mrna vaccine, which has the issue of stability in temperature? sam: i've said this a few times, and probably said it to you on your show as well. we put satellites into the sky and put people on the moon and exchange amazing things with the international space station. i am sure we can solve the logistic problems of shipping something at -70 and -20 if we put our mind to it. the ebola vaccine needed those kind of temperatures, except they were given to far fewer people, but still they managed it in the congo, so i am sure it is doable. obviously, it would be much easier to have a vaccine you just put in your pocket and take around. today, the united states has sufficient doses contracted with moderna and pfizer to cover its

population and more. union and theean rest of the world are currently vaccine. on the astra so that needs to get sorted out. , we will geturse news from johnson & johnson, and we will get news from novavax, and find out whether those vaccines, how effective they are. once we have that, we can start thinking about how quickly u.k. and europe can open versus united states versus elsewhere. to have critical economic impacts. sam, thank you for joining us. sam fazeli of bloomberg intelligence. this is bloomberg. ♪

from: live -- guy: live london, i'm guy johnson. this is "bloomberg markets."

disney has announced 4000 more job cuts after virus lockdowns forced the closures of its theme parks. that takes the number of layoffs for the next six months of next year to 32,000. that is more than 10% of its workforce. the coronavirus pandemic has hammered disney's traditional businesses studios, parks and cruises. company intends to wind down the search for oil and expand its renewable capacity by fivefold in the next decade. the first major oil company to set a target. , startingted states tomorrow and black friday, the $5 billion american dream opened retail stores.

the american dream is built like waterriences parks that no longer hold the same appeal. of that ino see much europe for a while. let's turn our attention to what is happening in the real estate market. the amount of construction on new office space in central london has plunged. in the sixhalved month threw two september, according to delete -- according to delloitte. here was more is dani burger. dani: what is starting to emerge because of the coronavirus is this very strange bifurcation of the london real estate market. this is really a global trend as well. what is occurring is because there are so many yield hungry investors out there, real estate is of course a great place for

that. anything that can still command high rent has seen its value growth. at the same time, older office space is seen as value lessened, so we are getting more of a divergence in these different markets. it has turned real estate into a market that is really all about quality. you can't just really buy it anymore under valued property thinking you are going to get a return on that because workers won't necessarily come back to those offices. instead, what is important is quality, esg, top amenities that will bring people back into the office. i spoke earlier with lasalle investment management and europe ceo about this topic. here's what he had to say. >> we don't believe the office is dead. however, the near term outlook for the office sector is going to be a lot less certain as it was prior to the pandemic. the long-term piece is going to be that much more interesting, and he will probably need almost a social psychology and human behavior to see how people return to work.

working is now a more diverse picture. dani: that's how complicated it has become to find valuable real estate, but the demand is certainly still out there for that flight to quality. guy: that makes it presumably a much more specialized asset class. dani: it's really does, not just for investors that will maybe still have the same demand because of that yield, but these investment management firms themselves need to get more specialized. it is getting more complicated, and you need to have more attractive real estate for offices. guy: to return to the issue we were talking about a moment ago, breaking news coming through from the ceo of astrazeneca.

saying they are lightly to run a new global covid vaccine trial, and that that probably is going to mean the clearance from the fda is likely to take longer, saying the new need will be faster and potentially lower numbers of patients. nevertheless, i delay looks likely now in terms of approval for that oxford vaccine, certainly over in the united states. we will carry on the conversation over the next hour. we will talk more about what is happening with the global economy. janet henry, hsbc global chief economist be joining us. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ london, 11:00 in

a.m. in new york. from london, i'm guy johnson. happy thanksgiving. welcome to "bloomberg markets," everybody. with u.s. markets closed, like volume a theme across most assets. the stoxx 600 now negative, but not by much. below the surface, the rotation back towards tech continues. that is where we are seeing the outperformance in europe. the energy sector underperforming a little bit. euro-dollar has a one dollar 19 cents handle, though it is off its highs. we are starting to track towards some areas where previously, we have had some concern from the ecb, i.e. $1.20. bitcoin now trading at 16,000 in 1600 800 $63-- at -- at