♪ >> a very good morning. welcome to daybreak australia. down towardsing the last trading session of the week across the major markets in the asia-pacific. rally facing stock losing steam as rising virus numbers tempora gains. -- temper gains.

astrazeneca is to resume vaccine trials. virus numbers rise but travelers defy warnings to stay home. imports of u.s. goods closed -- slowed last month. david: amidst all of that and a overnighthat markets -- we are getting futures coming online in about 60 minutes. been a veryt has good past two weeks for global equities. the nikkei 225 flirting with 27,000. kiwi dollar has been standing on

the platform. they are not getting a lot of action. it has been about a weak dollar. about vaccineing reflation trade. astrazeneca will run another global trial. amid questions about the program and the level of protection. initial test claims varying degrees of efficacy, sometimes as high as 90%. our deputy managing editor has the story. we have been asking a lot of the experts whether they can explain the gap between efficacy depending on the number of doses. no one has managed to come up with much of a thesis. is that why there saying more trials are needed? is that why they are saying more trials are needed?

[indiscernible] a lot of questions, whether the trials skewed to young participants. astrazeneca shares are down. ago, we talked about why the astrazeneca oxford jab is so important. a bit of a setback. trials andun more give it another go, according to

their ceo. world,for the fortunately, we are getting many horses racing toward the same finish line. the u.s. is closing in on approving some of these vaccines. what does that mean for astrazeneca in terms of them getting approval? does it change the timetable? >> i would think it does change the timetable. know.hard to exactly they typically do not like to rely on trials conducted outside of the u.s. aheadre going full steam on the pfizer biontech jab.

astrazeneca said they knew all along they may get approval for trials done outside the u.s. --looks like the astrazeneca the price and durability. david: you can get more on the vaccine race and other top stories. trials and tribulations, astrazeneca top of the list. it is available on the bloomberg anywhere app.

happening inare the world. 28 days with no new cases reported. slowed community transmission. state premier daniel andrew said the virus -- people should remain on alert. new data on the trade deal show target --ikely will as of the end of october, china has bought over $75 billion of goods. a further $95 billion needed to purchase before the end of this year. state media says china is likely to exit from stimulus measures

as soon as the economy improves. any interest rate hike remains off the table for now. .ight credit are inevitable anypaper failed to cite officials. reports in dublin say the european commission has told member states of full deal on financial equivalents with the u.k. is unlikely this year. sources on a brussels adding some progress has been made on bridging agreements. the eu has warned without further compromise, brexit negotiations may be terminated this weekend. new zealand says it will declare a climate emergency next week. -- the world is

mired in crisis that will affect every aspect of life. and the type of environment the next generation will inherit. statement to address the issue. those were your first word headlines. covidck friday in the era. analysts struggling to predict how consumers will turn up. this year will be like -- unlike any other. he joins us with his productions. medley global advisors will be here. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: welcome back. a quick look at the currency markets. the big story this week has been the drop in the dollar. that is picking up ever so

slightly as we get underway this friday. what does this mean for short-term rates? let's take a look at the stalling recovery in the u.s.. maybe a bit on the softer side. look at the initial jobless claims. consensus forecast on your screen for this quarter and next quarter, that is the blue line. there is downward pressure on these expectations of how much the u.s. economy can actually grow amid the spike in virus cases. let's bring in our next guest. you.ure to have good morning. let's get started. look at the data this week, mostly disappointing. morgank at's -- jp basically coming out and saying, look at the first quarter of next year, we will not get any further growth in the u.s.

morning. good to be back on the show. i think these forecasts show there is still a lot of stimulus could stretch a bit into december. i will be verily -- very carefully watching the isn data next week. strength underneath part the isn data will set the tone for what this quarter can look like. given the rebound in the third quarter, we have to acknowledge we are slowing down and facing a situation. we will have to bareback weivity to get the virus --

are going to have to stay accommodative until we get out of the pandemic. >> what does it mean for the near term direction of interest rates? normalizet rates can because the recovery of the economy was so fast, so rapid, it does tell me that next year could see growth. it will allow the slow normalization. i do not expect a major flight into safety back into treasuries. we know what the virus is about. that is pretty known. the only thing we don't know is

negotiations about fiscal stimulus at the end of the year. other than that, yields will continue to grind slightly higher. you are looking at longer-term earnings to structure the portfolio as opposed to the vaccine reflation trade or a fed reflation trade. >> it is a good point. if you think about it currently, the market has been in momentum this year about the opening on the back to normalcy thing. it is all based about the vaccine optimism. you have a market where the inlly big companies are open double digits, triple digits.

you have to start putting some balance in the portfolio. i do not think this can be done with treasuries anymore. not only low yields, but the risk. gold is not the perfect hedge. it comes down to looking at opportunities within the equity space. those equities -- that puts some balance in the portfolio as we go through this quarter. say this amount of foreign buying, do something bye a portfolio anchored asian em look like a bit of a haven or a safety play for the next few months?

year, a lot of equity in flows. because of asia having done so well controlling the virus, there is a perception from investors that the economy by a large will continue to perform better than the u.s. or europe. on that basis, it has been directing what flows into asian equities. you have to pick and choose. that could be a good counterweight against the technology outperformance we have seen here in the united states. good play in this environment.

haidi: bnp paribas says news of a vaccine means there is light at the end of the tunnel but plenty of hurdles remain. >> shareholders wish to have a dividend. this is normal. they allocate capital to the bank. we use the capital. they want to be rewarded if it is possible. the recommendation given by the ecb has been broadly well understood at springtime. it was a high level of uncertainty. nobody knew exactly what was going to happen. came as a negative surprise, it was part of the negative views out of the covid

crisis. extent, i think most of them have understood. you see what i mean. the question is the decision made by the ecb. today, we are still in difficulties. there is a second wave of contagion everywhere in europe and the world. there are difficulties, lockdowns are still there. reopening of the business is moving forward but there are still many difficulties. there is still a level of difficulties. there is more certainty we understand better what is going to happen. we understand better the risk had. we understand better the challenges we have in the have.ue --

i hope this understanding will help decision-making by the ecb about the recommendation they will give in december. >> the markets have to be less exuberant. we are not sure when a good chunk of the population will be vaccinated. jean: i think there is light at the end of the tunnel. scientistsonfident are developing vaccines which are going to help a lot. people to go through this virus crisis. there will be one. we note there are many questions -- we know there are many questions about production and distribution, about the impact and we should not expect a quick immediate impact.

it will take some time. at least, there is a light. that is what is very important. this is well understood. that was bnp paribas chairman. coming up, new data shows china is likely to miss its trade targets. we will have the details of that story coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

of u.s.hina's purchases goods under the phase one trade deal slowed significantly last month. stephen engle joins us from hong kong. what does the data show us? monthlykind of data has

surges and pullbacks, obviously. there are lots of variables that go into it. we have the coronavirus pandemic that has crimped demand in various parts of the chinese economy, although they are widely believed to be rebounding better than the rest of the world. and then there is the uncertainty of what is happening in washington. whether this phase one trade deal holds a lot of water under a biden administration. what will a biden administration do to keep these various tariffs? we have to look at the data, right? dataok at the bloomberg and it shows a very stark drop -- after septembers surge september's surge. we saw a drop off in october. in particular, energy products, crude oil imports into china.

under the phase one trade deal, china has pledged for the full year two by $172 billion worth of u.s. goods that included oil, agricultural products, and manufactured goods. $172 billion target. china had purchased $75.5 billion at the end of october. they would need to buy in the halftwo months, including of november, they would have to purchase another $95 billion worth of u.s. goods in order to reach that goal of the phase one trade deal. they are well off the mark. the top diplomat has been on a charm offensive, meeting with u.s. allies in the region. what are they trying to do to

boost those ties? >> it makes sense, doesn't it? there is a transition going on in the united states. donald trump and his posturing in asia against china will be coming to an end. there are a lot of question marks. how will biden take the boat -- take the baton of or will there be a reset? call the leaders of japan and south korea to reaffirm america's commitment to this region and its biggest allies. the foreign minister of china not missing a beat. he sees the transition as an opportunity to make visits this week to japan. he met with his counterpart there. they have just completed a visit with south korea where south signed a 10ina

point agreement on a number of different cooperation issues. they are going to have -- they will expand backtrack travel. -- theyl strengthen would agree that tokyo would lift some virus related travel restrictions. those two nations have a bit more of a stickier relationship because of their disputed claims in the china sea over islands. they both restated those claims. david: stephen engle. business you your headlines. the top apple supplier said to be shifting production of macbooks and ipads from china to vietnam to alleviate any trade threats. plant inbuilding a

vietnam which will come online next year. that is below the midpoint range. ever grab would receive about half of that. disney will cut another 4000 jobs. disney has cut 32,000 jobs since covid-19 struck. that is more than one tent of its total -- 1/10 of its total workforce. there is plenty more ahead. futures are mixed right now. the dollar is a little bit on the front foot. next, we will get you callsiew of the morning

to get you started this friday morning. keep it here. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: you are watching daybreak us trillion. -- daybreak australia. victoria has reported 20 days in a row of no new cases of coronavirus. it is an impressive turnaround center ofg the australia's worst outbreak of the virus. harsh lockdown measures seem to be paying off. paul, elimination is a strong word to use, but how confident are public health officials that the virus has been suppressed in victoria? paul: nobody is using the e word, elimination, but it is very encouraging. two incubation cycles now with

no new cases. so that is really in case her -- really encouraging. the premier says maybe there are a handful of cases we do not know about, but that is enough for the state to look at moving to covid normal sometime next month based on health advice. yeah, a huge turnaround from where we were over the summer and winter, where victoria endured more than 100 days of lock down. very difficult even go outside or do anything. 700 caseswas getting a day at one point. but most restrictions are now lifted it is still mandatory to wear a mask indoors, but life is getting back to normal, and it is just an example of what can be achieved if there is a strong societywidecohesive approach where everybody sticks to the plan. this path to normalcy also includes getting people

from outside back home. there are 30 something of them looking to return home from overseas. what is the plan for repatriating these people? paul: that is a difficult one. there are 36,000 australians believed to be overseas and are very keen to get home. each case is different. there is an example and local media. a language teacher in italy today, she lost her job, she has no money, no family there. obviously very keen to return to australia, but flights are scarce and very expensive. so we have the foreign minister confirming qantas will be putting on more flights. there are no details yet but the seats will be limited. of course when they return back in the country there is limited quarantine as well. andhat regard, victoria tasmania will be resuming whole

-- hotel quarantines next month. looking at a firm -- looking at a fairly normal christmas for australia. david: ahh, 2020. someone take it and throw it in the trash chute. a snapshot of some notable recommendations as we get underway. let's start with the fx markets. dollar-yen, a little bit of a pop overnight. any near-term weakness they say , cappedapanese currency around mid 104. this, as they say plays on better real yields keeps money flowing out of the u.s. dollar into currency like the japanese yen. let's move to commodities. oil is a big story this week. standard chartered sees opec-plus managing to still be able to push back any output increases.

the head of commodities putting out a note here for the clients. the bank sees a three-month delay in that. they also say there is reason for rallies. should give reluctant members like iraq and the uae time and incentive to go along with an extension to those output cuts. those were your morning calls. that takes us into your market story for today. let's bring in adam haigh from sydney. about the oil rally. it has lost a little bit of steam but it is very early this friday, from a technical perspective at least. what is the story today? still $45 a barrel on wti, so the question about the rally is how much of the momentum is getting to a level where you are start to think is this overbought, has it gone too far. and as you go into this key meeting, we often get these more significant moves and volatile

trading just ahead of these key decisions. so i think the point about the technical set up is it is pretty risky, reasonably overbought on a technical basis these week. so that suggests he maybe get thatpullback, but a lot of and the ultimate fundamentals behind the driver recently, a lot of people in the market still expect that to be there. and as you say, it's about that upse that the price has run pretty hard here, but does that give it a bit more leverage to those in these meetings that are coming up soon? haidi: right. in the absence of a leap from wall street, what else are we watching in the asian session on friday? adam: of course really what we are watching is whether we're going to get any material volumes here.

as you say, with thanksgiving and lack of trading in the u.s., it doesn't get much -- doesn't give us much of a set up. in november, only today and monday's left. volumes,see material above average volumes in trading today, then it could give us a sense of how we are going to end the month, whether we are going to continue to see caution and risk assets come off a bit, or whether the global rally can gather more steam and push through fresh record highs into the final couple days of the month. that is what we are really looking for, keeping an eye on volumes, seeing how the openings are across japan and china, and seeing whether investors are really prepared to continue backing this rally, or just taking some chips off the table incrementally and dialing basque -- dialing back risk. one of the big themes going into

december will be the portfolio rebalancing. we have had such a rides are equities and a lot of people who want to reallocate their equity and bond positions as we close out this year. global markets editor adam haigh in sydney for us. we are now hearing from president trump speaking to reporters outside the white house, saying that he will give up power, and he will concede if the electoral college was for biden. thate had earlier said conceding would be a very hard thing for do -- to do, he be heading to georgia over the weekend, and said he does not want to talk about it 2024 run yet. there had been speculation he would run again in 2024. he had fed into that, that he would be running. but he now says he will give up power if electoral college votes for biden. we do know in terms of the formality, it has taken extreme

proportion this year, given his legal team has sought to delay the results. the deadline we're looking ahead to is a vote taking place on the 14th of december. let's get you the first word headlines this hour. in number of air passengers the u.s. this thanksgiving are the highest since covid-19 shutdowns were imposed eight months ago, despite seeing people being urged to avoid travel. global numbers of virus cases continue to rise, with germany recording one million total cases for the first time. london may avoid the u.k.'s toughest virus restrictions when england's lockdown ends next week. france says intensive care numbers continue to fall. drugmaker astrazeneca has launched new vaccine trials amid mounting questions about the admission of a manufacturing error. they said their job -- their trial is at least 70% effective, but participants have been given different doses. none of the litter information was included in the company's

original statements. the malaysian prime minister has survived a key test in parliament, winning enough support for his budget plan. the $78 billion program was he remains- ensuring in office as the budget moves into a second round of debate next week. the pm remains under pressure with his allies calling for a vote of confidence, and a potential election. the southern indian city and surrounding areas are mopping up after a powerful storm cut power and triggered widespread flooding. it came ashore with winds up to 130 kilometers per hour. storm killed at least 100 in eastern india. that was the most powerful storm to hit the area and what than a decade. those are your first word headlines this hour. david: coming up, black friday

kicking off the holiday shopping season. we speak with veteran of the retail industry burt flickinger to talk about how the pandemic is changing it, adding a little bit of permanence to some of these retail trends. we talk strategy, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg. ♪

david: welcome back. black friday marks the

unofficial start of the holiday shopping season. but as with everything that has been happening this year, it's going to be a bit different. covid-19 has changed the way we shop, and retailers have had to adapt. rudy could cooped up reports. -- the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season is upon us. covid-19 has drastically change the shopping landscape season. stores are offering seasonal deals earlier this year to avoid a holiday crunch. stores are bulking up direct shipping and in-store and curbside pickup, with adobe analytics predicting a 40% rise in pickup shopping methods. traditional brick-and-mortar businesses are also focusing on shipping to e-commerce. online sales art peck specter to surge 33% to $189 billion. that will not only pressure

retailers to adapt but will -- getting that change is crucial for struggling storms -- stores to survive. shift towards e-commerce and contactless shopping methods could be permanent. so if shoppers do not have a good experience this season, retailers could risk losing them for good. haidi: that was ritika gupta reporting on the preview for black friday. let's bring in a veteran of the retail industry, burt flickinger, managing director for strategic resource group, joining us on thanksgiving from new york. we really appreciate your time with us on the holiday. online whatn about has been an unprecedented pandemic year. is that still the theme that carries through? and what does that mean for some of the consumer behavior that we associate with brick-and-mortar shopping, like impulse searches? it is like charles dickens

wrote a century ago in the first line of "detailed to cities." it is the worst of times and the best of times. it is the best of times for online, it is the worst of times for less capable brick-and-mortar retailers. that said, the record-breaking results for the food retailers, consumerategory, electronics retailers. the retailers that have bricks and mortar with online, buy online, curbside pickup and delivery, those retailers are doing well. and there will be a requiem for shopping malls and shopping centers as the wholesale clubs, costco and bj's, buy out vacant department stores. and there will be a requiem on top golf and a number of category dominant chains moving from retail power centers to retail shopping malls.

so suppliers in the pcr and throughout asia, africa and the americas can look forward for a good retail selling season a year from now, and starting next summer and in the decade again when we get through the tough times now. where are you expecting to see the most strength? anecdotally you take a look at just the crazy level of demand when it comes to gaming consoles that you cannot get your hands on a ps5 it seems from everything i have heard. sameit still be the stay-at-home demand trends we have seen all year? burt: you are completely correct. it is stay-at-home demand trends, and you're are referencing a very important point, that one of the things that will save the movie theaters and the malls is putting in gaming centers and gaming theaters, and gaming arenas in the shopping

malls -- ultimately what we are seeing from pricewaterhousecoopers, my millennials, the younger consumers from the ages of 25 to 38, and around those age groups, will buy actively online today, and will be in the stores aggressively shopping together for black friday as well as small business saturday, and the international council of shopping centers, with whom we have been doing a lot of work from south africa and worldwide, is forecasting for small business saturday for family-owned and operated is is is, consumer interest is up 54% for shopping in those stores. so it's idiosyncratic, in a word, but at the same time it is not death for brick-and-mortar retail.

the key thing is borrowing a page out of jack's genius, where singles' day bloomberg reported last month generated $55 billion sales u.s. compared to $11 billion for amazon prime day. every retailer should have a shopping mall and a store-based theme around singles' day, but instead of doing it once a year, borrow and build on jack ma's genius about every 90 days or every quarter. david: burt, david here. i wanted to pick up on that and bring in the macro backdrop of the u.s. that you have heard and talked about, and we have been talking about. the heartbreaking level of job losses in the u.s. the bulk of the u.s. economy is small business. we talked about how these big names are adapting to the changes. what advice would you give to smaller retailers that also need

to adapt for the same changes? burt: david, as background, the flickinger family cofounded famous whirlwind chains from woolworths to rexall to iga to federated to red and white. and for 100 years through may, our guidance to the retailers is base,d and consumable focus have different brands, work with universities, places where i teach, cornell university, with the students, and the entrepreneur team, to develop a unique product. whether it is fashion, fiber textile innovation and design, or whether it is healthy food and nutrition programs. and the key thing, david, is marketing and advertising. there is a very good firm in the u.s. that supports entrepreneurs, small good.

but most retailers, when sales declined, they cut or eliminated advertisers. the ones doing the best look at advertisement as an investment. and it does not just have to be walmart, target, amazon, alibaba that are doing well. -- along with coscong with cosco. the small businesses with the best advertising, and reaching out to great news organizations like bloomberg, can really power a requiem and a renaissance for their business, regardless of the economy and regardless of the economic and employment conditions. david: burt, thanks for the plug. your take longer term? what do you think is the most important, least obvious trend? burt: the least obvious trend is on the bloomberg green report

and the bloomberg terminal every day in terms of what thomas is thesaid, that the sun number one source of energy, and solar should be the number one source of power. and the shame of half american retail is they do not put rooftop solar on their distribution centers and their big stores. particularly the supermarket sector that has thousands of stores, and typically have done zero to solar installations. and the ones like amazon that do have solar are getting their power prices cut anywhere from 55% to 95%. most importantly, amazon is using those solar renewable make money ways to from solar to pass along the savings to consumers who are not only desperate for better bargains, but desperate to feed their families. and target and walmart and cosco

do an exceptional job too, as well as ikea. sector,u.s. supermarket whether it is family operated or not, they are like the flintstones, stuck in the stone ages. our survey work indicates that 90% of consumers want solar power, and 35% of consumers will switch to retailers who use solar. and the shame of review a street in particular -- the shame of u.s. retail in particular after wildfires and disasters, in food, they do not reinvest in sustainability. that shows up with pathetic scores on the bloomberg esg indices on the terminals, and the bloomberg green reports. and their board of directors are just as bad. the people's republic of china and across america and europe, even the middle east, solar is

the key breakout to help the retailers offset rising covid-19 costs with solar savings. my greats what grandfather call the nugget, or the unreported part of the story, that bloomberg reports so well, but the other networks and the corporations don't follow the clues correctly. just some crystal ball retail what does global look like this time next year? do we see some return to the pre-pandemic normal? or are some of these brick and we retail -- brick-and-mortar retail stores gone forever? burt: it is a combination of the two. the wall street-owned corporations that have been gutted, in my professional view, by firms that have filed for , and others, they are

literally on proverbial death's doorstep. for the rest of retail, as bloomberg reported, with 70% of tiffany's growth in the people's republic of china, you will see a real retail renaissance for luxury worldwide. on the bloomberg terminal, it's at an all-time high. so, luxury products will come back with travel, with style, with people going out. and for the highly capable, well-capitalized entrepreneurial retail leaders that advertise and have the good balance that you and david referenced between e retail, or online commerce, with bricks and mortar commerce, will be in the perfect spot, especially if they have goods related from food to toys, and pets as well. david: burt, happy thanksgiving.

thanks for coming on the show. managing director of the strategic resource group. as we were just speaking with burt, more live coming through. in terms of the retail offer, just under 54 times oversubscribed, according to the hong kong economic journal. essentially extrapolated from 74 billion hong kong dollars worth of margin loans. we'll talk about this later on. plenty more ahead here on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪ his is bloomberg. ♪

david: welcome back. let's gaze into the extremely near-term future will look at the open of australia in a couple minutes. no lead from wall street. it has been a great few weeks for risk assets. names we are tracking in australia, the big story this week, looking at the heaviest weighted sector in that market, it's really been this rally in commodity prices. bhp, rather. watch whenne to things kick off later today. have a look at these three names. i imagine looking at the early price, we might see some

retracement and reversal in yesterday's pluses. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪

haidi: a very good morning. we are counting down to asia's major market open. welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories this hour as we get underway, less trading session of the week, the global stock rally may be losing some steam as rising virus numbers temper gains in european markets and oil is down and cryptocurrencies plunge after a dramatic rise.