mixed picture for stocks as german coronavirus cases pass one million and infections in ew york hit a seven month high after astrazeneca will take a global vaccine trial. shares in sabadell plummet as bbva have a disagreement in price and italians look to delay the sale of monty pass ey -- montepaschi. and president trump said he'll leave the white house if the electoral says so and might not seed and skip the inauguration. thank you so much for stepping in. i know the festivities were large and markets are taking stocks as there is a resumption to valuations and question it and look to a number of cases and seeing markets largely

trading sideways. caroline: parties being halved in the markets, the euphoria over the do you -- dow and sacred number with record highs in the small caps all comes home to roost a bit and people digesting where we go from here and whether that longevity can be withstood in the market. valuations front and center and we start to question mark the rotation trade that's been upon us particularly with the dire headlines continuing when it comes to the coronavirus. francine: we're also looking at portuguese 10-year yield nearing zero. now to bloomberg first word news. hi, erika. >> president trump will relinquish power if the electoral college confirms victory but may never formally concede defeat and may skip the inauguration. he's calling for the election

to be overturned despite no evidence of fraud. there is a warning of long months ahead in the fight of the coronavirus. europe back to restrictions after the four week partial lockdown. the rules are stricter than before and london says rules are falling on cities like manchester and birmingham. china's latest target with australia is happening and beijing expected to impose anti-dumping from the exports this weekend. barring imports from coal and copper to bali, china is the biggest buyer of wine importing $900 million over the last year. global news 24 hours a day on air and bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 companies. caroline and francine?

francine: stocks ending the week on a cautious note and investors setting valuations to see if the rotation has further to go. among some of the things we're looking out for, the portuguese yield, i've been looking at it for quite some time and painfully close to zero and not there yet and could happen today or next week or not happen as well but we look at that. oil retreating with rising tensions, and treasury advancing and dollar slipping heading for a second weekly decline. caroline? caroline: fascinating when it comes to the mark ins in the trade and s&p has been ticking higher. the s&p i think in there by mistake. we'll get you the futures updated because they have been on the higher side. we're looking at the japanese yen and money moving into the yen and the havens. the yen takes my attention. bit coin no longer the haven of choice as it was seen in yesterday's massive move to crypto and now seeing 16,000

handled and the question is it we g.t.e. to 19,500. copper, just maybe the market out there thinking there canen growth going forward in terms of us moving on to a post vaccine world. then we have futures market painting in the green. francine? francine: let's get a market analysis and prospect, a much needed perspective. the chief strategist. i love your morning notes because they're funny and a bit of humor never hurt anyone given with a we're living through. you look at your pairings and don't know if you like europeo dollar better than others but does everything point to dollar dynamics and a weaker dollar here? >> in general, yes. what are the features of markets it seems to me they move in regime changes more than anything else and i think

the question people have to ask themselves the end of this year is does the collapse of real yields, real rates in the united states reversing most of the gap that opened up with the rest of the world, represent a lasting regime change and would say yes because jay powell told us the fed is staying down here for a long time. and it's not surprising to me the effect winners like the yen are winners and the service economies that have to export to the rest of the world cause they have services and being asked not to do so if they have higher rates and bearish on the dollar being consensual this year and what would explode that consensus is jay powell turns up and says i told you i'd let the economy run hot and overshoot and didn't realize a vaccine is coming and we'll have to

analysis money policy and that's really not going to happen next year and on that basis i think we have a weaker dollar ahead. francine: you really think there's no chance of inflation surprising on the upside or you're saying it wouldn't surprise on the upside enough o warrant a policy change? >> if it does will they reduce what we've had with europe? we've had a 1% narrowing in long interest rate differen shals in the last 18 months or so. i don't think we'll widen that gap back out, no. i think we'll stay in this new range. a bit of inflation would be good in that regard but have to take not just a lot of inflation but enough to make the federal reserve react. in practice it's more likely when we look who blinks first in a bit of inflation but you get normalization in new

zealand where they're worried about house prices or eventually in australia or this world of vaccines that the e.c.b. starts thinking of tapering its policies before the fed turns direction. so no, it's unlikely in relative terms that this paired with this administration coming in will be the first one to change and is a lasting change for the environment and good one for the entire country. i'm interested, the dollar is on a downward practice generation from here on out and no longer seeing the haven play. does it become resolutely the japanese yen where we go the days are back to the days with vaccine in the future but right now i'm looking at covid headlines. kit: i don't think the yen behaves often as a haven before because it's not unusual in having superlow rates.

it tends to be relative interest rate story more than a relative safety story. i do think in that sense, if we got really worried about the long term environment the dollar still is the haven. going pack to this year, the aggression of the fed with the swap program and treasury reoppose program and everything they did to make sure the world wouldn't suffer a crisis dollar liquidity again, that's another big change from had past cycles. but look, the dollar is a haven at the moment with vaccines on the horizon, the markets are not looking for a haven. caroline: finally, kit. i'm interested in your take of where it goes fiscal or monetary policy because the euphoria in the market earlier this week was janet yellen, one known in london because they found fiscal can work alongside

monetary policy and have you been seeing in europe, we hope at least but maybe not quite in the united states, still fiscal policy the question mark of the day but your perspective the way ugochi: goes in their money making and if they can fire on all cylinders in the economy and whether euro reverses where the dollar goes? kit: that's a huge, huge wurks huge thing in europe as far as how long it goes. we went over the past decade, euro-dollar was trading 150, averaging 135 and then with this austerity we've had since then with the e.c.b. being the only game in town, really 1505 and 125 as a new level rank. to break into a higher range you have to get the recovery fund to exist and have to get a rethink on fiscal policy and have to be joined up on fiscal policy so e.c.b. isn't any

longer the only game in town but won't stop us from seeing what's happening in the united states but at the moment the euro is going up on the fed news and its policies. so europe really deserves found up fiscal policies and hope it lands but thoroughly in the hands of hope at the moment. francine: what do you think will happen, kit, will we have the recovery fund and is it political posturing from hungary and poland, will the e.u. give them something to unblock this? kit: that swoined from the recovery fund so they give away a lot in that argument. so i suspect at least this round but the e.u. wins it and the recovery fund and the budget gets put through because that makes sense and the compromise is fact and the rule of law debate within the european union comes back in a different form another day but doesn't stop this.

i'm more concerned with the recovery fund, not that it gets stopped here but the next step to join physical policy takes a long time to having the progresses remain slow because news of the vaccines and economic recovery next year, the fiscal hawks return the same way as the monetary hawks return. that's more of a trend. the hurdle from hungary and poland, i think they'll back down in at least so far as where it concerns, having that fight now and blocking the budget and the process of the recovery fund i think we'll get this done. francine: thank you so much. we're getting a bit of breaking news out of the u.k., the regulator on the as practice citizen vaccine and more questions about one of the fastest moving shots after a company yesterday said a lower dosage level that appeared more effective resulted from after

mag -- manufacturing screp answer and bloomberg speaking to the chief executive and he spoke about what happened in the vaccine and it's interesting to see the regulators trying to reassure the public that safety will me first and the astrazeneca vaccination. they have confirmed of course that their astrazeneca has often to look at the vaccine and safety will come first. item important to reiterate though it seems intuitive that will happen. coming up, a chief medical advisor coming up at 9:00 a.m. in new york and 2:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg.

♪ francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. caroline: i'm caroline in new york with francine in london and filling in for tom keene, fueled on turkey and sweet potatoes with marshmellows put on top. it's delicious. first time having it. kit duke is still with us. i want to pivot over to e.u. and brexit and something we don't discuss nearly enough in the american hours the ongoing disaster that is brexit. i see a headline crossing the terminal with a diplomat saying only the obvious. we know they're getting back and in london we under come next week. any hopes in some sort of a breakthrough? kit: look, i think we're at the end of the negotiations in the sense i want to have a

conversation with the europe's fisheries and then off to london but seems to me a very skinny sort of deal is possible and if we don't get one is because something goes long paw both side want to get a deal done now. it's not at all possible it all ends in acrimony and failure to get it over the line. whereas i'm surprised the foreign explaining market hasn't gotten plor nervous but the central best case has been a week or so is they get something out of this. caroline: how much farther could we fall if we do get a nerve rattling and get more game of chicken coming particularly from boris johnson, how far could we fall? kit: game of chicken could take us down to 1.30 and don't know

why we haven't done some of that. if we get more stress you would think euro-dollar at that range might feel some of the nervousness and let him poof in other directions with that otherwise being the case. if we come in monday and does nothing to suggest any progress was made on sunday, i think we'll probably be coming down towards 1.30. if we announce we don't get a eal, we'll trade at 1.25 quite quickly. we'll move down if that happens. nervousness is a disk if they get nothing over the weekend. francine: do you think it will get something s there a will? kit: there must be a will at this point in time. i think if they don't is because something has done frong and they'll get it over the line.

the base case for back of a etter word, a deal gets done in the next few days and muddy the water tnd and sort it out and still a series of moves at has to happen but chg comes throong over the mask and s and a huge everyone wants to avoid that. francine: we've been speaking to a number of ambassadors in london worried that companies don't know what to do are still not prepared for a no deal brexit. what happens in continental europe, are they prepared for a no deal brexit or will we see significant movement on the other side as well? kit: my guess is that not completely prepared but they are better prepared than

companies over here partly because it's easier to make some preparations because it's not quite as big a part of your business trading with the u.k. as it is the other way around. i know i've been talking about brexit to my firm's clients on the continent for longer than i can remember this point in time. a lot of work was being done to solve it. both sides will find that not only if there isn't a deal, they're not fully prepared. the economic reality of the deal costs them money either way. we brace ourselves, headlines coming to the e.u. commissioners to present contingency plans and without u.k. decisions it is impossible nd fighting ahead as le wind up conversations and where are

we not talking about, what currency pair are not talking about and where are you on the phone saying it's a real opportunity now. kit: i'm not sure opportunity but the biggest conversations i'm having, yesterday i had conversations about the euro and conversations about brexit and emerging markets which is my full-time specialty. the biggest change that will happen at any point next year is a global economic recovery movers the dial from capital flows as optimism returns to the global economy with sack seens and haven't gotten to that yet but if there's one thing we'd like to bet ride over the next year is more optimism in that regard. francine: thanks so much, kit.

chief effects strategist. coming up, we track covid-19 and we have our daily conversation with johns hopkins experts. coming up in the next hour, johns hopkins bloomberg school virologist ssor and and look at the treatments out there. this is bloomberg. ♪

that

francine: >> i have your bloomberg business flash. walt disney is cutting another 4,000 jobs after lockdowns forced the closing of its theme parks. it takes a total number of layoffs in the first half of the fiscal year to 32,000, thorn 10% of its work force. the entertainment giant is switching focus to streaming service disney plus which is seeing surging growth. bit coin is steadying after its biggest slump since march's meltdown and been on our roller coaster rides climbing within reach of an all time high before falling to $16,000. bit coin is up 140% this year and there are questions about he durability of this rally. a family office will be opened in singapore to run the philanthropy in the region, and bridgewater associates long had ties and is opening an office

there and is excited by the region's prospects and is your bloomberg first. caroline? aerial ine: the futures market is bit more steadying after the record high fell from wednesday. same with the russell 2000 and the dow that sunk off that heady, some call to the sacred level but we're pairing back .10% as our nerves steady past the thanksgiving holiday and a shortened day of trading and money moving into the treasury about the japanese yen and coin off 1.5% and copper falling 2.3%. up next, the head of european pharmaceuticals join us.

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance and i'm francine lacqua in london and caroline

in new york. the germany total coronavirus cases passed one million yesterday a day after the government extended a partial shutdown until just before christmas. on the vaccine front the astrazeneca executive said the shot likely is headed for an additional global trial in an effort to clear up the confusion crowneding the latest results. we're likely to be joined to talk about all these pharmaceuticals by emily field, barclays head of pharmaceutical research. thank for you joining us on bloomberg surveillance today. how is it the astrazeneca trials were confusing and what does it mean for the company going forward? emily: i would say you know, i think we've all gotten very wrapped up in the confusion but i would take a step back and think of things at a high level and sort of even worse case scenario they have a dosing regiment 62% efficacy and we

know they'll sell it at cost and there's a lot of geographies in the world that need a low cost vaccine. at the end of the day, this still is overwhelmingly a positive but we need to wait and see how the rest of the data comes out and the company along with oxford is working as fast as they can to get all the data in a peer review journal. so hopefully we'll get a clearer picture soon. francine: emily, does it just point to the very increasing battle to get the virus first? does being the first one really matter that much? emily: it really doesn't a large ere's such global demand for this and while there's so much investor attention and the three candidates being pfizer, more thana and others will get it with so many coming in the first and second quarter of

next year that hopefully it all these continue to show efficacy it will be a com oddtized market and won't really matter so much who is necessarily involved and as it relates going back to astra specifically they said they are not profiting from this so from a financial perspective it's really not that important. caroline: you're getting a knock to your name in terms of clarity and transparency and the way you're divulging this to the market, if you're not profiting on the bottom line, it's not great to face the headwinds from a p.r. perspective. i was speaking to annalist last week, and they were questioning the data saying the u.s. will never actually license it. do you think there's territorial nature to this and will we see certain countries not want to take for example oxford and astrazeneca's work

and will be jockeying for other distributors instead? emily: we've heard media reports of vaccine nationalism but as it relates to astra, they said all along -- this data from a u.k. or brazilian trial whether it would be sufficient for u.s. regulators and they saw reports that's not likely to be the case but they have a large u.s. trial ongoing and we should results soon. nothing changed in terms after regulatory geographical perspective from what we learned this week. caroline: you rate astrazeneca and you have it overweight, emily. when you say these companies are doing it for the greater good of humankind and won't be benefiting on the bottom line but their share prices react so much when we get headlines and particularly we saw that with the likes of pfizer and seen it with the likes of moderna and astrazeneca. does it frustrate you we get these knee-jerk reactions to

the head libes when you think it doesn't affect them in the long term? emily: frankly it's been frustrating seeing astrazeneca underperform because we don't model anything in our contribution from the vaccine above consensus forecasts predicated upon growth within their key oncology franchises. one thing i think investors seem to be missing is european health care has very much underperformed the broader indices, particularly since we've gotten the vaccine news but phrma like other sectors benefit from the rollout of a vaccine particularly across third quarter earnings. we've seen companies struggling with fewer patients going to doctors, etc. because of social distancing and lockdowns, almost every sector out there, phrma benefits from a rollout of vaccines though it doesn't appear to be reflected in sentiment in the european names. francine: when you look at the other stocks you're watching

what do you do with novartis going forward, is the focus so much on who has the vaccine and share price movement justified keeping to wraps some of the innovations the other companies are doing? emily: i would say that hopefully as we get past the fourth quarter and into early next year when we're thinking about 2021 guidances, i think we can really -- within the phrma space investors or companies are rewarded for innovation and innovative products and at least among our special investors is where the focus has been and there's been so much capital chasing vaccine plays and why we saw the shares prices react the way it has. hopefully as we get into really coming back to the farmer's corps wred and butter and

innovation of products and guidances in february of next year we should return to just thinking about the primary drivers of earning and growth which really won't be covid accines. francine: anything mispriced among the stocks you follow if novartis roche, is there anything we should be mindful of? emily: of the larger european novartis ate stra and and novo and astra have the best rates and novo is a former first pick and is flying under the radar because they don't have anything -- it's a very innovative company but investors are pointing to not a lot of splashy things from the pipeline upcoming but are very optistic on innovative growth

rates such as a m.s. drug and a drug for spinal muscular atrophy drug that is just launching and very positive on roche in addition to astra and novo. caroline: love talking covid and all things outside of covid. emily field, we wish you and your family members a happy thanksgiving the day after you're living in the u.k. but an american heart i'm sure. et's look at british news. u.k. prime minister saying there are substantial differences remaining with the e. pumplet. interesting we're getting a drip feed of comprehensive headlines from the e.u. ambassadors and the u.k. as we head towards hopefully a weekend of negotiations. e u.k. british pound off .20%. is it a game of chicken and will we get a consensus over the course of the weekend?

we wonder. let's get you up to speed with the first world news. >> astrazeneca's vaccine is headed to a new trial and the drugmaker is hoping to clean up confusion surrounding the results of its current study and the more effective result came from a group given the lower dose of vaccine due to a manufacturing error. the u.s. and the e.u. are ready to restart face-to-face brexit talks as we've been talking about that after key officials were forced into quarantine and michelle barnier is headed to london and tweets there are significant stumbling blocks in negotiations. hungary and poland are vowing to veto the e.u. package, in a defiant briefing leaders of both nations demanded changes and show signs to reverse their objections. brussels is investigating the two companies over democratic backsliding, making them prime

candidates for funding cuts. global news 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quick take powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 20 countries. rancine? francine: thanks so much. in all this news we forget it's black friday but next hour we talk retail with joey, a research analyst and ask him where people are buying and how they're buying and what they're buying at 6:30 a.m. in new york and 11:30 a.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg surveillance. bloomberg ter, our opinion columnist and economic advisor. this is bloomberg.

caroline: this is bloomberg surveillance, caroline hyde in new york and tom keene gets well deserved rest with francine lacqua in london. bbva and sabadell ended discussions with a disagreement over the pass of a transaction. shares of sabadell plummeted but they've recovered some losses earlier and now down a cool 13% and the group will shift focus to developing the retail business in spain. we're joined with the senior bank analyst at bloomberg intelligence and we can discuss the fervor that is bank consolidation in europe as we see a focus on all things trying to take on the latest slowdown in the economy but jonathan, your perspective on this deal being put on ice, bbva is set to spend. where might that money be put

to work? jonathan: bbva, fantastic sale of the u.s. business with a lot of cash. wouldn't be surprised if the e.c.b. switches back on dividends and capital return next year if we see a big buyback program from bbva. i think the fact that sabadell clearly turned around and wants a higher exchange ratio also reflects the sector and sabadell was trading something like 1.95 times the capital base. covid ravaged the share prices and in many cases very good reasons, the sector always was trading at a discount so figuring out who gets the job -- top job where following the multidecade lows we saw earlier in the year is a clearly difficult topic. caroline: sticking to what you started your discussion with the fact the e.c.b. might limit the dividend payments coming back bull all banks do that and who tentatively takes steps

back to rewarding shareholders this time? jonathan: definitely all banks will not offensive board allowed to. i think it's going to be pret straightforward. the well capitalized banks that are profitable this year, i bmpp and we'll cap the returns but you may begin to return capital. some of the banks are sort of break even at best and maybe even loss making and the weaker capitalized banks where we have bad debt unknowns and the regulator won't let them start returning capital yet and don't forget the e.c.b. was aware about m & a in the sector and put out a paper earlier in the year because they said we recognize they're they're trading below capital you potentially could get a good deal on a bank but don't take that value and return it to shareholders. even for the bbva's of this

world it isn't as straightforward like aumplet b.s. or k.b.c. francine: just getting breaking news and let me jump in and tell what you we're hearing from the prime minister boris johnson, he is talking about brexit. i know for everyone following the story closely it was touch and go and first we were close to a deal and then the europeans stormed out saying it was a waste of time and now there johnson is saying a brexit beal will begin from the e.u.'s and the prime minister saying there is substantial and important differences to be bridged but says the u.k. can still prosper even without a dial and having an impact on the pound 1.3336. i have a million questions on dividend but what's the state of the u.k. banks now, are they worried some of the companies they either lend to or represent are not ready if here's a no deal brexit?

jonathan: definitely exposures, matt west group and lloyd, not west group is very, very overcapitalized after years and years of government ownership. we're not worried about solvency but you look at profitability and the government response today, bank lendors, that type of thing, it will be ugly and financial services as well. you think financial services within brexit fail is the one thing not being talked about and there's a big risk we see an exodus in london from barclays and say, jp morgan. there's a lot of risk not only on bank loan books but the u.k. status and think clearly. nobody is talking about it at the table and that's a very big problem.

francine: because it could be a systemic problem or just because it will hit some of the revenue? jonathan: it's going to hurt london quite badly, i think. in everything the u.k. was pushing for, clearly not on the table. we were talking about fishing and sausages and that thing, financial services goes back to years ago and dominating talks and this year it's a dirty little secret and from the perspective of the banking structure and derivatives and clearing contracts, they were rescues we were talking about over and over again and haven't been a part of the discussions which from my side is a bit after concern. francine: jonathan, thanks, jonathan tyce, senior bank analyst at bloomberg intelligence. the headlines coming thick and fast from the u.k. prime minister boris johnson and saying a brexit deal depends on the e.u. and substantial

differences remain important differences is what the prime minister is pointing to and getting on with it and the u.k. can still prosper mightily without a trade deal. 'll see in the next 24 hours r so because michel is here. coming up, a national economist . this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i have your bloomberg business flash. unions representing tens of thousands of amazon employees re planning to walk out at the year's busiest shopping season gets underway and protesting e commerce handling everything from sick pay to covid restrictions to policy. and they plan to make it an innovative business. the largest airline is raising as much as $3.2 billion to shore up finances. a.n.a. will use the money to

repay long term debt and buy new boeing aircraft to improve capacity and comes amid the worst crisis in air travel history as passenger numbers are hit hard by the pandemic. that's your latest bloomberg business flash. francine and caroline? francine: ritika, thanks so much. the u.s. market has been relatively resilient and we were told his firm could benefit from acquisitions. mark reed the chief executive from w.p.p. spoke to us earlier and asked him about the recovery from the covid crisis. mark: we used the vaccines this side of christmas and certainly early next year and do think it gives companies a lot more confidence to invest in the future. i think what's interesting is back in march and trail it once delammed on the brakes, understandably when the first lockdowns were issued and haven't seen that quite of reaction even with the run-up

to christmas, clients are still -- i wouldn't say optimistic but concede consumer spending in christmas and coming in next year the process pect -- the prospect of the vaccine seems to be a pretty strong 2021 from another perspective, taking the u.s., we spent about 9% this year and expect that to grow at 12% next year. and in the u.k. we expect a sort of similar progression into 2021. francine: mark, overall, what are the regions but sectors that have surprised you on the upside that are stronger than expected? what do you do with china now and what sectors are spending more? mark: pretty interesting, coming into this if you said our revenues would be down 9%, 10% this year, i think we probably would have predicted,

a much worse indication and the marketing industry hasn't been as impacted by covid as i think ourselves d both and also analysts. one reason is consumer spending has held up relatively well funded by government and the other is the clients need to continue to invest and communicate. what is striking us is the growth of our larger clients and actually in the third quarter, 11 of our top 30 clients increased their spending. so we are seeing good growth in consumer package goods and health care. we've seen strong results from mpany such as unilever and conquistador the largest in company history. and we feel terrible for business in hospitality or leisure, small companies that find it harder to operate. geographically, i think china maybe hasn't bounced back as

quickly as we would have xpected it and some of it is presented by automotives growth and expect that to come. the u.s. has been relatively resilient when you watch what happens over thanksgiving with some hesitation perhaps as we do over christmas here in urope. bart: that was mark read, the chief executive of w.p.p. speaking to me early on. the focus is what's firmly on the president clinton of infections rising certainly here in europe. if you look at the data chip, it's a mixed bag and we saw earlier in the week we're settling in for the shopmakers and weekly decline could be lower than average along with stocks and bonds because of

thanksgiving. happy thanksgiving and hope you had a wonderful day with your family. if you're watching us from the u.s. and then in general, it's just a bit of caution out there, investors are setting valuations, caroline? caroline: they really are and question valuation with record highs on the dow and s&p and the small caps as well with the rotation trade maybe catching a breath and tech performing well trading on wednesday and today we wonder what pushes the s&p 500 and the feature signal up 10%. the yen currently in position of strength versus the dollar. krypto catches a breath and copper sales up and maybe there's hope in the future and we are seeing great british pound down on these headlines and we anticipate a bit of heart. . ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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stocks as german coronavirus cases pass one million and infections in new york pass a seven month high. plummet as shares takeover talks begin as italian lawmakers look to delay the government sale. standing defined, president trump says he will leave the white house if joe biden's win is confirmed by the electoral college but he says he might not formally concede. good morning, everyone and good afternoon if you're watching from asia. hyde is with me after a thanksgiving feast. we have a couple of pieces of news when it comes to the market. it is trading sideways. the market is questioning