>> the nightmare scenario would be if the unemployment rate were to go higher. >> the labor market is something that is going to drive the whole economy down. >> we want it to be measured. >> we are still in a deep recession. it is time to spend big in order to restructure the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and , typically alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. today, caroline hyde joins me. you can either interrupt the bests like tom keene, or super downbeat on the global economy and fill lisa's seat. it is up to you.

caroline: you know what? i will go for the interruption technique. no, i am going to play nice. by caffeine and sugar. i tried sweet potato with marshmallow on top, and american american top, an delicacy. not so sure about it. onathan: a quiet day ahead both sides of the olanta. caroline: -- of the atlantic. caroline: this is like a black friday of no other. we will have empty stores. everyone is online. but those traders will still be logging onto their computers. i feel as though perhaps we are going to get a little more activity than we use to. certainly we sought on the cryptocurrency front. jonathan: we start with equity

futures and work our way through the bond market, foreign-exchange as well. equity futures up about seven on the s&p 500. we advanced 0.2%. outside of that, and the bond market, mentioned the bid into treasuries. yields coming in on the 30 year to 0.86%. euro-dollar, some really big calls coming through. there's a feeling that maybe next year is a repeat of 2017, when we had that global synchronized growth and a really strong euro. we are nicely through $1.19 now. caroline: it is interesting, whether the eurozone manages to , as that fiscal firepower well as the monetary firepower, and in the united states as well come up with janet yellen coming into the treasury department. we will see some interesting headlines in terms of brexit. that brexit bickering once again as we line up towards the

weekend. i want to get you up to speed with what we are looking at in terms of events. is the official start of black friday, the sales event, the kick off to the crucial holiday sales period for retailers. department stores will be hoping that measures will help offset the trend away from brick-and-mortar to online. monday, an unofficial up meeting ahead of the official meeting on tuesday. we've actually got a little bit of weakness in oil on the back of that today. tuesday is day one of testimony from fed chair jay powell and treasury secretary steven mnuchin. haven't been getting on so well of late. that will be absolutely fascinating next week to see how much daylight there will be between the two of them. let's start the conversation off with peter dixon, commerzbank global equities economist.

great to catch up with you. just want to start with a basic one. seems to me that nobody wants to sell down risk for the first vaccination. do you share that view? peter: good morning. it is true, i think that at the , we are not entirely sure how this is going to play out. we had lots of questions regarding the astrazeneca situation, but markets not willing to sell off at the .oment obviously the holiday disrupted period has forced to do musters onto the back foot -- has forced investors onto the back foot. we had a couple of weeks of trading in fear to come. normally you would expect things to start winding down, but i think there were so moving parts that we can expect a very interesting two weeks.

my view is that we should be positive. a bit higher than we are now. downside risks. jonathan: let's talk about the slips we have hot already. jobless claims moving the wrong way last week, moving the wrong way this week. i keep asking how big will our tolerance be as we work our way through to negative data in the united states of america. can we shake off 3, 4, 5, 6 weeks? peter: that's a fair point. how many data points do you need to see a pattern or a trend here? i think the markets are looking a bit further ahead than this. the labor market in the states has taken a massive hit, and that is the case in other markets around the world. true that we are short of

where we were back in february, and as you said, it is running in the wrong direction. year get to the end of the without any major problems, i think the market can weather that. but if the claims number start to move in the wrong direction, that is the point at which markets will start to get worried, and given the mounting number of covid cases everywhere , obviously in the united states that certainly is a major risk. thatine: i am interested not all markets are the same this moment. forms, once again the so-called rotation trade, a turn of phrase we used too much of the moment, is on hold. can we move higher without big tech leading charge, or do you expect big tech will once again

become the game plan for investors? i think there are a number of issues there. in terms of the bigger picture, i do think that the tech buterse will boom higher, we have to look at the parts of the tech sector we like or which have a post-covid future, and those which perhaps have done well thanks to the lockdown. so do you want to spit with netflix in a world in which we are getting back to some form of normality, whereas it has been a game changer in terms of the online trading platforms? there is definitely still value there, but whether it is the same trade we saw prior to the lockdowns i would question. in terms of the nontext sector -- the nontext sector, it is -- the non-tech sector, it is

really dependent on the news at the moment. at the moment, there's nothing which is floating around. caroline: the russell 2000 up 20% on the months, a record month at record highs. the dow at that sacred number, 30,000. meanwhile, bonds remain completely range bound, never really getting above one percentage point. at what point might we see people back away from these valuations if the yield does pick up that much higher in the u.s.? peter: for this question, you have to ask yourself what are central banks going to do, and the likelihood is they will stay active for a long time to come, so i think we are talking another six months or there about at least before we have to start talking about significant moves in yields. the market could have a pickup

if we start to have good -- start to have more good vaccine news. but i generally don't think that yields are going to go anywhere anytime fast. so whatever they pickup in the first half of the year they probably do in the second half. jonathan: can we talk about why? i want to talk about the bond market for a moment. market has rallied, as caroline pointed out. we had that great rotation. this bond market, yields just haven't come with it. do you think it is technical because people believe the fed steps in and puts a lid on it, or there are some doubts in this bond market about the trajectory for growth, for inflation for the years to come? say it is 80% fed, be 20% of the fundamentals. there are some people out there

there have been such damage to the supply side of the economy that you might see inflation pick up. that is not my view, but it is out there. generally speaking, i would see rates going sideways. i think that is going to be the theme certainly for the early months of 2021. jonathan: peter, great to catch up. just checking on the bond market at the moment, we got a curve that is flatter, a bit into the bond market. yields down by three basis points on the 30 year, down on tens to about 0.86%. you can push through a more constructive view for 2021 with a vaccine, the comfort blanket of a better world around you. can you push that view through

the equity market? right now, yes. absolutely. in the treasury market, can you do the same thing? i think many people are struggling with an answer to that right now. caroline: it is going to be so telling what we hear coming from fed chair powell in the next week, what we hear from treasury secretary mnuchin, and what we alan blinder last week, that what treasury secretary mnuchin, he called it mean, called it crazy, the fact that it has gotten a little bit harder to have that safety net in terms of programs to support small to medium-sized enterprises, programs that supports municipals. but the insurance policy was there. how will we see janet yellen steer that from a treasury policy perspective and support theo's economy when some of the akamai data is not looking so the u.s. and support

economy when some of the economic data is not looking so pretty. jonathan: looking for to catching up with drew matus a little bit later. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president trump says he will relinquish power if the electoral college signals joe biden's victory, but says he may never concede defeat and could despite inauguration, no evidence of widespread fraud. the u.k. and the eu are ready to restart face-to-face brexit talks. there are substantial and important differences to be

bridged, i sentiment echoed by the eu's chief negotiator michel barnier. each said the onus is on the other to make a decided move if a deal is to be reached. ireland, which was the first western european country to reimpose lockdown, is getting ready to ease its coronavirus curbs today. the prime minister will lay out a plan likely to include reopening most stores, gyms and after his coming days cabinet finalize the details. across the border, northern ireland is moving to introduce new curbs, enclosing -- new curbs, including the closure of non-essential stores. caseshas 570 new covered in the past 24 hours alone, the highest one-day total since the pendant up again. the spike comes on the final day before a request for tokyo bars and restaurants to close early goes into effect saturday. officials are tracking cases in the capital as a yardstick for

requesting restrictions on businesses. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: it is going to be a very hard thing to concede because we know there was massive fraud. so as to whether or not i can get this apparatus moving this

quickly, because time isn't on our side -- everything else is on our soured. facts are on our side. jonathan: the president still yet to prove the massive fraud he keeps talking about. good morning to you all. live on bloomberg tv and radio. lisa abramowicz and tom keene will be back on monday. on the s&p 500, about to deliver another week of gains for the small caps. four straight weeks of gains for the russell on course. the sb 500 -- the s&p 500 on course for a weekly gain of about 2%. we see a bit into the bond market at the long end. flatter curve, down to basis points on the 10 year to 0.86%. $1.1920.ar, that is a stronger euro. the calls are coming in for europe, i think it was barclays looking for 13% upside on the

stock 600 and 222 anyone. into -- the -- 600 stoxx 600 into 2021. to pendulum has swung optimism. caroline: it is the rotation trade, isn't it? we have seen japanese stocks do well in this desire to get into ,he cyclical trade, and europe maybe it is finally time to start getting into it. jonathan: the tensioner on the fiscal side that we still have not resolved in europe and the united states as well. it's turned to kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. the president was asked in the last 24 hours would he leave the said,ng, and he "certainly i will, and you know that." i thing it was the first acknowledgment of what this process might looks like. kevin: in speaking with sources over the past week, i think it is really clear here that there is a political calculation that

the outgoing president is making with regards to the next two years and four years of his own political strategy, and for him specifically, it comes down to three areas. first and foremost, does he want to run for president again? secondly, does he want to play political kingmaker of sorts in midterms or in 2024? thirdly, what are next for his future business endeavors? whether it is in media circles or in additional real estate circles, if he goes back to his life prior to this, those are really the three spheres of influence that he is confronting every time he weighs in about the issue of concession because that has become a political bargaining chip and a communicative bargaining chip that he has now been able to deploy how he wants. jonathan: forgive me for asking

you to get out your crystal ball early on in this conversation, but let's talk about what the president was responding to. it was a question as to whether he would physically leave after the electoral college confirms bidens victory. can you walk me through what that period looks like, between that and the georgia runoff? kevin: it is quite remarkable because you have the january 20 inauguration for president-elect joe biden, so it really is a matter of hours on that day. it is quite interesting to see how former president's have reacted to that, where they fly off typically to joint base andrews, where they then become private citizens again. anti-semitic in that regard, -- very anti-climactic in that regard, and it has been for quite some time. really calming folks around the country who were worried about what the traditional peaceful transition of power would look

like. and then with georgia and the special runoff election, that is january 5. it allows for the president to play a significant role in trying to maintain and keep a republican majority in the senate. caroline: talk to us about the republicans and how they are responding to what might be the first sign of some concession coming from president trump and the fact that he will walk out of that building. how are they responding? how are they setting themselves up for any bipartisan nature going into january 20? kevin: to be honest, the issue of him leaving or being , icefully removed was really think most people expected that he will leave peacefully. i think there was a lot of andourse around it, sensationalized discourse around it. secondly, many republicans have been urging him to concede to be allowed to begin with the transition of power. the government

services administration coordinating with the biden team. there were the first meetings on operation warp speed with regard to the vaccination process, between the current and incoming administrations. but i think historians are definitely breathing a sigh of relief because the peaceful transition of power is truly a hallmark of american tradition. caroline: i'm still really taken with this relationship it would be treasury department and the federal reserve as well. the sort of disposition, the fact that they got drawn apart for the first time last week, with treasury secretary mnuchin coming in with a curveball no one really expected. we now have this optimism in the markets that the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy will be a close one if we get janet yellen. talk is of -- talk to us about the hopes and prayers for some fiscal spending, and whether it might be pre-january 20 or not. kevin: it is remarkable because

you go back to yellen's confirmation process in january of 2014, and she was able to about 11 plus of republican senators at the time, who voted for her confirmation process. she was obviously an obama pick. i bring that up because several of those republicans who voted for her are no longer in office, but one of those senators who did not vote at the time, in a situation that we are approaching where every vote is going to matter, is lindsey graham. whether or not he will vote to confirm her i will be looking for. i don't for see any significant hurdles to her confirmation process specifically, but it will be interesting to see if susan collins again votes to confirm janet yellen. a couple of things on my radar. december 11, they have to pass a continuing resolution to evert a government shutdown, right around the corner. secondly, the issue of outgoing treasury secretary manage and with fed chair powell --

secretary mnuchin with fed chair powell, that is falling along party lines. finally, to be honest with you, the biggest variable is whether or not the uptick in covid-19 cases are going to impact fiscal stimulus talks. jonathan: especially after thanksgiving and the amount of travel we have seen. in about 60 seconds, whenever you take time off, tom gives you such a hard time. he's not here today. this is an opportunity for you to take a dig. kevin: oh well. tom keene, are you listening? i am going to say tom, i want to be graceful -- i am known to ask, question. does tom keene think i could pull off a bowtie? to be honest, i don't even know how to tie a bowtie. i've googled it and i don't even know how to do it. jonathan: i struggled to take them seriously at the best of times, and if you do that, i don't know what to say. kevin cirilli, chief washington correspondent down in d.c., i

guarantee tom keene is listening , but with a little bit of a hangover. a long time -- alongside caroline hyde this morning, i jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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♪ jonathan: from london and new york this morning, good morning. for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside caroline hyde this morning. no tom keene, no lisa abramowicz, which means i can take my breath a little bit. no one is going to jump in. here's your equity market this morning. futures of about seven. do it, caroline. [laughter] where nasdaq, that is your outperformance is come up about 0.3%. a bit of a defensive posture. outperforming on the month, though. what a moment it has been. the russell having its best month ever, unreal. yields just haven't participated in a big way. yields are lower this morning. the bond market is bid, the

treasury curve is flatter. about twoyear, down basis points to 0.86%. finish on this board right here. i want to finish on europe and give you a picture of things right now. the optimism and constructive you on the -- constructive view on the continent has really started to pick up. of1, do we have a repeat 2017, that global synchronized growth? a 14% move on euro-dollar. where did we finish that year? $1.20, funnily enough. that is pretty much where we are right now. the stoxx 600 pretty much unchanged on the day. next year we are looking for 14% upside. that is the call from barclays. it is the vaccine story. have a vaccine. now it is about vaccinations.

rolling this out and getting the public trust. that is going to be key. some of these calls will materialize in the coming 12 months. caroline: it was just earlier in the week we were seeing analysts saying that we are worried about astrazeneca use in the united states, worried about the authenticity of some of the data, saying that to get any sign of approval, it is going to be interesting the way in which we play politics around any sort of vaccine. the nationalism we might see around it as well. i want to begin on that because it is so important to the markets. what we are hearing from astrazeneca today in terms of wanting a new trial for its covid vaccine after a lower dosage level appeared more effective, that actually resulted from a manufacturing discrepancy. joining us now is suzi ring. it would be a bit of good fortune to see that this data is kind of more effective. suzi: exactly.

the company is describing it as serendipity, but obviously it is cause for confusion. it was basically a manufacturing error in the trials that meant the wrong dose was given to produce offense. when they realized it, they decided to pursue with the group giving that dose, and they did include that in the statistical analysis at the end. the problem we now have is we have two very different efficacy readouts. that group showed a 90% rate, whereas the two dose regimen group, the main trial, had a 62% efficacy rate. the discrepancy has come into question because the 90% group were all under 55, and we know older people can have a lower impact from a vaccine, so that calls into question, was the safe luke? was it not -- was this a fluke? was it not? we need more data to find out, so they will do an additional global trial to trying to find out the efficacy. jonathan: just a final question

on whether this can be rolled out anytime soon in the united kingdom or the united states, your thoughts on that at the moment. yesterday there were still confident that they would be rolling out the vaccine by the end of the year and they would get approval on that rate. the u.s. would be slightly slower because of the mixed picture of the results. jonathan: great to catch up. bloomberg's suzi ring on the latest from astrazeneca. astrazeneca down by about 0.7%, but the key story is this will be sold at cost. this story is hugely important to large parts of the global economy and society as well, but for the stock, funnily enough, not so much. caroline: that is exactly what we had barclays saying, that this isn't a bottom line issue for astrazeneca. she sort of set i am frustrated by any market reaction to some of these headlines about the

efficacy of the pfizer one, the moderna one, because a lot of the times this is not what drives forward the p/e ratios of these businesses in the longer-term. is someis going to be sort of other innovation they have to be on. this is about making the world a healthier place. jonathan: the stock just a little bit softer this friday morning in london trading. we can bring in vincent chaignea insurance head of investment strategy research. the outlook for 2021, the comfort blanket of a vaccine, it seems we are willing to deemphasize a lot of negative news between now and when vaccinations begin. would that be your approach as well? vincent: hello. yes, absolutely. i believe once the vaccine is here, as you said, there are question marks about acceptance, about the rollout of the vaccine, but nevertheless, i very much believe that we had

one exhaustion is shocked on the economy -- one exile genesis shock onone exogenous the economy, and if you solve this, you open the door for a more sustained recovery, and the recovery next year should be strong. along with that, you have ongoing support in particular from the central banks. you have most importantly falling uncertainty. with falling uncertainty, you have also a fall in the equity risk premium for basically an expansion, so i do believe the vaccine is a game changer, and haveis why, by the way, we this quite remarkable market development over november, where the cyclical stocks are catching up. they have plenty of room to the upside. is up 21%urope value

this month, but in fact, they are coming from very far, and year to date, some of the weakest sectors, oil, banks, real estate, they are down 20% or more. jonathan: i want to separate some of the sectors with you, then. let's start with energy and for wendy banks as well. they are catch up trades -- and we can throw in the banks as well. they are catch up trades. you draw any distinction between the sectors right now, those that have beaten up so badly and those that have legs into 2021 and 2022? vincent: no, i think overall, there is room for the whole value complex. if you look at growth against value, this has turned very

strongly this month, but actually, look at that against the momentum of the development of the past two years. that is actually a drop in the ocean. course, you will want to differentiate based on the news that we are going to get. we talk about bank dividends this morning. that would be good news for the banking sector, if the european banks are allowed to pay dividends again next year. for oil, you want to watch typically very closely the runoff election in georgia in the u.s. because if the democrats were to get a tied senate, that would be an effective majority for them, and forntially that would be that sector, so they would be idiosyncratic movers, but overall, i would expect that the cyclical sectors very much benefit from this sustained

recovery that we are going to get next year. to take youwant cross asset class or cross capital structure. where are you looking in terms of the bond side of the equation for these corporates? is it time to be getting into more cyclical names? the bid there has been so strong already. vincent: they have performed brilliantly, and yes, we remain positive on credit, although spreads already tightened quite a lot, so we recommend to go down the capital structure, as you said. we like hybrids. we also like, in high-yield, bb historically. cycle, theat in this corporate default rate will be at a much lower level then after the great financial crisis. we are very selective.

obviously you need strong credit research to look at single credit names and make sure you have the right pix, but overall, we think yes, it is time to take a bit more risk in the credit segment. caroline: and while the americans are away, the brits may play. because wealk brexit are getting headlines today about the tough nature of negotiations over the course of the weekend. how much is that being factored into the appetite for u.k. stocks at the moment, u.k. financial stocks in particular? vincent: i think there's room for u.k. stocks, especially the more domestic stocks, to recover if we have a deal. sterling is a bit weak this morning. it has started to recover. if you look at speculative positions also, there is actually quite a lot of long

sterling positions. i think the market is positioned to some extent for a deal, but if that is confirmed, there's a big point of uncertainty that would disappear, and i think that would be beneficial to the mystic stocks in the u.k., two financial stocks in particular. but where is the oven ready deal? we were told that the deal would be ready, yet one month into brexit, to the end of the transition, we don't have a deal. there are question marks about this process. our view is still that we will get a deal, but i have to say, we were a bit nervous on this. jonathan: vincent, great to catch up. appreciate your time this morning. caroline, we have an agreement on this program. we don't discuss brexit. we have not had a productive discussion about brexit on this show for at least 12 months. caroline: is that because of the

lack of brits? jonathan:jonathan: it is not because of the lack of brits, let me tell you. the only thing that can make this a productive conversation, michel and prime minister boris johnson to finally give us something to actually discuss. caroline: by the way, do i get a nap in this show? i've had worried that maybe i did. jonathan: tom keene gets the nap, so you can have a nap, usually at about 40 past the hour. you can take this five minute slot or you can take one in 60 minutes, but you just take a little nap. you just have to give me a heads up. coming up on this program, hevsky of cfra. looking forward to it, right here on "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta.

astrazeneca's vaccine looks like it is headed for a new trial. the drugmaker is hoping to clear up uncertainty and confusion surrounding the results of its current study. it says more effective results came from a group given a lower dose of the vaccine due to a manufacturing error. a grim milestone for germany. the country surpassed one million coronavirus infections. cases in europe's biggest economy have more than tripled since the start of october. chancellor angela merkel and the leaders of germany's states gatherings tot limit the impact on the economy. in california, some thanksgiving celebrations turned dark as edison international began cutting power to thousands of homes and businesses. the power cuts affected as many as 100,000 people. . strong winds were raising the risk of wildfires. worstrnia is enduring its

wave yet of a coronavirus infections. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

br forecasts that the economy will contract this year

by 11.3%, the largest fall in output for more than 300 years. jonathan: unbelievable. rishi sunak, british chancellor of the exchequer. if you are dreaming of becoming the chancellor, you don't dream of making that statement in the house of comments, that's for sure. alongside caroline hyde this morning, i'm jonathan ferro. i want to check again on the price action this friday morning. last week, i week of gains on the russell. the week before that, a week of gains on the russell. the week before that as well, and this week as well. we advanced 0.2 5%. a bit of dollar weakness out there. some euro strength. $1.1925.ar, on the 10 year. realogy -- the rally in energy has been unreal. on the months, the s&p 500 energy sector up about 35%.

we have seen the moving crude as well, free have dollars on wti. the story of the month is pretty clear -- $45 on wti. the story of the month is pretty clear. caroline: they don't carry much weight anymore in the s&p 500, but still, the outperformance has been front and center. there's a little bit of cracks around the edges on what opec does, and terms of whether they cut back on that supplier not not, but for now, that trade higher in energy and financials has been phenomenal. jonathan: this is the vaccine trade of 2021, and market participants willing to look through the near-term risk. you would have to imagine that as a factor for the holiday season. hevsky joins us now, analyst with cfra research. with the testing rates in america, across the country, including hospitalizations, do

they lead to people shopping less just changing how they shop? camilla: shopping less for sure. thanks for having me. jonathan: fantastic to have you. why do they shop less? camilla: in-store, today is black friday here in the u.s., and covid-19 is completely challenging the traditional holiday calendar. i think we are going to be seeing very few shopaholics trending on twitter, camping outside of walmart or target or best buy today. that very muted outlook we have on black friday, which traditionally has been one of the biggest holiday shopping dates of the year, has to do with fear of covid-19 and daily cases reaching new daily highs. in fact, the survey in october found that a little over 10% of consumers said that they were very likely to shop in stores on black friday. medium which

people choose to shop is clearly shifting away from brick-and-mortar towards e-commerce. that has been clear for years, and accelerated through this pandemic. i am trying to understand what will people spend money on. home depot and the home-improvement channel, that has been absolutely massive through this year. is that where we see continued strength into 2021, even with a vaccine? camilla: absolutely. we have seen elevated interest for home furnishings, which doesn't come to us as a surprise given that, with covid-19 come of people are taking on more at home living projects. but also, the data that we've closingt has shown that and accessories continue to be popular categories this holiday season. caroline: closing, finally. everyone seemed -- clothing, finally. everyone seemed to have been doom and gloom on that one. have seen -- we

airbnb managed to pivot, but i feel that experiential has got to be coming off the gas. camilla: what we are seeing, and this is specifically with the higher income demographic, and why we have a forecast for the holiday season of a k-shaped -- economic recovery, those that have seen faster income growth are shifting away from pandemic reliant services like experiences, and that trend is shifting into retail this holiday season. so our holiday outlook which is that retail sales for the month of november and december will be flat year-over-year, coming in at $1.5 trillion. it is really reliant on how much these higher income individuals splurge this holiday season. caroline: this k-shaped economy is so important, and the nature

at which this rebound is occurring. who benefits by the fact that they are fortunately in a middle high income bracket that are able to spend on a piece of jewelry rather than luxury travel? who loses out by the fact that those who can't manage to get back to work at the moment are unable to buy for their children the way they usually what? camilla: on the retailer end, we did a digital traffic analysis that we run every year to forecast our winners and losers. the reason why we look at digital traffic is because we see a direct positive correlation between digital traffic and in-store traffic. we saw growing momentum of luxury brands like tiffany entering this holiday season, and one name we called out in terms of our top five winners digitaliams-sonoma, a first home furnishing retailer, specifically targeted to a higher income demographic.

in terms of losers, i think it comes more on the lower income consumer and because -- consumer and because we think this group are very likely to embrace frugality this holiday season as fiscal stimulus starts to run low. there are estimates that a 12 million workers are facing a jobless benefit cliff on december 26. jonathan: camilla, appreciate your time this morning. hope you had a wonderful thanksgiving. this year up 25%, and that is not just the derivative of a low rates play. that has been the story of people buying new homes, doing those houses up. if we go into 2021 and the story is about to shift, and we are playing this vaccine story, where do those names fit in? caroline: has demand been pulled forward? -- mi now so long

on my deck and heaters that i years?eed to buy now for jonathan: i think it is really important to reflect on what happened this year. we had one of the most counterintuitive experiences with the labor market ever. the most counterintuitive experience with the labor market ever. unemployment surged, yet disposable incomes went up. the savings rate is skyhigh in america, yet that does not to speak -- that does not speak to the disparities of food lines around america. caroline: it is so painful what you see on the streets. the stock market is not the economy, and we are starting to see signs of that when you look at the economic data. it doesn't look so pretty, and you have been saying it time and time again, jobless claims, jobless claims. it is going to hit at some point. matusan: coming up, drew

of metlife investment management. looking forward to that conversation. good morning. futures up nine on the s&p 500, up 0.25%. on bloomberg tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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>> the nightmare scenario would be if the unemployment rate continues to go higher. >> the continued weakness of the labor market is going to drag the economy down. >> we want it to be measured. >> we are still in a deep recession. andt is time to get in big spend big to restructure the economy. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. jonathan: from new york and london, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is the second hour of "bloomberg surveillance,"