- [narrator] compare prices to get the best discounts. - goodrx, smart. - [narrator] stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today. haidi: very good morning. we are counting down to asia best of a major market open. shery: welcome to daybreak asia. the asia-pacific markets look set to start the week with gains oil is back in the spotlight with attention rising among opec

and its independent allies. estrella seeks global support -- wanting the wto to step in and to end discrimination against its exporters. breaking news. a little bit of a mixed picture when it comes to those month on month and year on year numbers. contraction of 2.2%. this is a huge miss because the expectation was for marginal gains. perhaps this negative and disappointing data was helped by the holidays in october. we saw the holiday export contraction. on year numbers are huge disappointment.

we have the final third quarter gdp numbers coming out tomorrow. likely a surge of 1.9%. haidi: to can look at the trading that was just getting underway when it comes to the australian markets. we could possibly erase those losses for the year. it will be the best november. we are seeing moderate gains at the open ahead of the rba decision. dollar, 73-93. the u.s. dollar falling to the lowest since 2018. as we have been talking it has been a november to remember. posting their biggest monthly performance on record.

joining me is ahead of markets. what a year. we started off with the global recession. >> if you look at the performance drivers of the market -- shery: we are having some trouble hearing you. we will try to get you back in a moment. president trump has acknowledged that the fight to overturn his election defeat will not reach the supreme court. he tells fox it is hard to send

a case there and that he probably won't succeed. president trump indicated his legal options may be running out but but suggested that there is no end date in mind. iran is prepared to bury the man it sees as the father of its nuclear industry. it's policies and strategies will not change because of the death of the top scientist who died in an attack on his car. no one has claimed responsibility. on limits. to agree most participants in the informal discussions supported maintaining current levels. oil producers will reactivate almost 2 million barrels per day .

brexit teams worked to seek a deal. top eu negotiator says that talks will continue despite warnings that brussels would like more compromise. a deal still remains possible although discussions have already passed the deadline. to naomi who we can hopefully hear this time. what in november, what a 2020. ?oes this continue i think in some areas it will be new. of the market that benefited from stay at home or work at home, the technology -- the best of the

environment. look at a big part of the market benefiting from the economic recovery, moving from this location to normalization. olde wass -- in the economy. 2021 will be a strong year. there is a lot of liquidity in the system. there's a lot of room for gains in a rotationary kind of way. not very different to what we saw in 2020. that reflation trait, does that continue to add to the rotation we have seen from the start of 2020? economicbut as long as ,ata trajectory is improving

they improve these technical areas. yields. matter, bond the u.s. versus where bond yields are, there is a lot of dislocation there. cyclical areas are likely to be beneficiary of this environment that we have gone into. shery: we have already seen the rotation happen with the russell. 1000 value index on track to overtake the growth index for the third consecutive week. i wonder how sustainable it is when any time that we have uncertainty, we see big tech surging and we again see that defensive positioning. that has been the theme over

the past seven years. you have had big massive spikes. it fizzles out. this time, when you look at the -- big enough to become significant. nasdaq was the peak of 2000 in tech stocks. we've got to a point where apples market value is -- higher than 2000. some rotation. what we've seen are strong gains in november to remember. if you look at the long-term chart, it is a small blip and there is a lot more room after activity normalizes. shery: is that the similar logic

you are applying to shorting health care? >> absolutely right. health care in the u.s. in particular is very political. it is not as much a political risk. the risk aversion that we have seen over the past 70 months. strong in a been risk aversion context. we are likely to see more money flowing into these cyclical areas. we are watching treasury winds and we have seen a decline of over 11% in the first few seconds of trading. revealed it's strategy

marketsg to find other despite relying upon china so heavily. we knew that those tariffs are over 200%. some ofs make you avoid the consumer names that may have an exposure? we don't know what the next target will be. >> it does. the unfortunate that that's direction that australia and china are going. at this age, i'll be avoiding any consumer stock that has a heavy reliance on this distribution in chinese markets. look at the local conditions in australia, strong. it looks like they're going back to normal.

opposedportunities as to taking risks in the areas that have a hard -- for dilatory risk. t -- regulatory risk. movebiden presidency, the toward more unilateral trade wars,= these but it will take time. shery: where does that leave the aussie dollar and i ask that knowing that we are heading toward the rate decision. -- at the same time, you have this headwind of potential trade friction between australia and

china. overall, despite the huge demand of fiscal spending, the rating is unchanged. australia's recovery is strong. the policy response has been strong. it will be capped by the tensions we've seen in china and the u.s. and australia. shery: always great to have your thoughts. one month left in what has been a turbulent year for global economies. we will get an assessment from carlos casanova about which are poised to fare better. as the virus situation worsens, we have indonesia -- while korea

and hong kong tighten restrictions. this is bloomberg.

shery: hong kong is closing all school classrooms. engle is following the developments and he joins us from hong kong. is the plan for parents? >> we have to put this into perspective. hong kong has fared through this coronavirus outbreak fairly well. just 109 deaths, but this is already the fourth wave of city.ions for this

haiti one infections of every 100,000 people. the government is coming under increased criticism from officials and from parents for their increased ad hoc approach. into triple digits and we were getting about 80 each day in the last part of last week and they were adding restrictions the closing of bars and nightclubs. businesses say that they cannot because every friday it seems like there is a new restriction based on a surge of cases.

they are calling for more of a structured system. a structurede of response system like in singapore and new zealand and south korea. closed as ofbe wednesday. year.h the rest of this in thesouth korea are middle of a third wave, what are we seeing in terms of the cases and any further measures? this is a country that has fared well during the pandemic but we are in the third phase of infections in the government has added this tiered system of response. now they are talking about the

-- seoul.ide of soul distancingocial requirements. they cannot serve customers after 9:00 p.m. prohibit eating and dancing. this is a country with 33,000 cases and a relatively low proportion. daily infections have climbed by for the past five days. as i go into the winter season they are worried about even larger spikes. engle with the latest on the virus.

seeing the markets off of session lows. they were off by as much as 12% earlier on. on friday when they had these , they hadg measures already declined. treasury wine had earlier given an update with its plan to shift to tryry away from china to divert labels from china as they are being hit by 169% when it comes to those tariffs. it doesn't look like investors are buying into their planning for years of negligible demand in china. we'll continue to watch that stock and other movers throughout the course of this

session. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: let's trick -- take a look at treasury wines. asir opening lower as much 12%. repairing some of the damage but there.own by 6% this after friday when we had that stock almost crash, being hit by duties of almost 170%. looking to divert their brand to other markets. limited scope for the recovery for its product.

the asia more from agriculture report. taylor, with mitchell and he called this move completely devastating for the injury -- industry. anys hard to describe it other way. it is really a matter of trying to divert. that is a process that could take a number of years. the markets, indicating the rest

of asia, but the fact taht they -- that they can't sell into dollars worthion of wine. it's devastating and we are seeing that show up in the share moves. shery: we are seeing pushback on the wto. >> they indicated that they the wto.to they werehina said putting tariffs of about 80% on australia. something interesting to keep in treasurer this morning

said the government is looking into ways of supporting these companies that export heavily to china. would vague on how he support these companies that have the heavy china market focus. if this trail you would be going down that path, we've got to be careful about actually being seen as subsidizing a lot of these companies. elevated now that we're talking about going to the wto. we have to be careful about what we are doing to support the ad commodities that have been hit by the worst in regulation. haidi: this comes at a time when the australian economy has zero

external tourism. china is usually a big source of demands well as huge when it comes to international students. could this play into demand even after there are reopenings? isn -- is the consensus, concern, isn't it? we have to think about different ways to export to china. andof those is tourism education. we know that nearly 40% of the international student population are chinese. that is a huge amount. open, it is unclear if we will get that revenue stream from china, especially given that earlier this year, china warned are international

to rethink studying in australia. definitely something to consider. is a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. said to be considering its retail banking network. review may also suggest reducing investment banking to concentrate on asia and the middle east. the times is reporting that jp morgan and -- have expressed interest in a british banking start up. written's lark largest consumer banks.

raising doubt about the ceo of the italian compnay. we will have plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health?

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now it's your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com, that's a-e-r-o-trainer.com. karina: this is daybreak: asia. global reported coronavirus infections have soared past 62 million with the u.s. as the epicenter. cases in california hit a record with los angeles and san francisco imposing tighter restrictions. a vaccine is expected before the end of the year. germany says that infection rates are falling too slowly. therts from tokyo say organizers from the year's $2 billion.pics -- the organizing committee has

has agreed costs but with the international committee to stage a simpler games. china says it needs annual growth of 4.7% to achieve the goal of doubling the economy by 2045. the nation possesses the conditions to meet the target despite the virus fallout and the global downturn. president xi jinping has said it is completely possible for the economy to double in that time. playedho originally darth vader is dead. the british actor who was the body but not the voice of luke skywalker's nemesis passed away at 85. he was originally a weightlifter and portrayed darth vader in the original star wars trilogy. the addition for darth vader and chose thebut says he

villain because you always remember the bad guy. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. on mondayc-plus meets and tuesday. delay thedecision to production increase until january. the smaller panel. failed to come up with an agreement. james, what are the latest signals coming out of the meeting? >> we seemed to have some discord over the weekend. i do think it was a huge surprise. there were a couple of countries who were not so keen on postponing the hike. they want to get through production levels back up and

get the revenue flowing back in. we still haven't got that agreement to delay that. it is not to say that it won't happen. i'm sure there are a lot of backroom talks going on and the formal meeting doesn't start until -- does not start until monday. the expectation is that there would be a delay of three to six months but i think it may even be shorter. market have seen in the is some downside. we have seen a little bit of weakness this morning. far. huge reaction so haidi: it sounds like you're reasonably optimistic that a compromise could be reached.

>> you never know with opec. there are the diverse views going on. arabia say that saudi and russia are unified on the need to delay this. market. uneven the combined power of those two would suggest that there is some sort of deal to be had. united -- united arab emirates and kazakhstan where the two that i mentioned. a question of whether the delay might be shorter, but it has been noted and if they do go ahead with this plan, we will inventoriesthose

rising to surplus again. that is the basis for some agreement being reached. does the cartel rivalry factor in at all? >> it will certainly be a consideration. with the really big producers, most of their oil goes to asia and that demand has been recovering quite nicely. that economy is starting to come .long quite nicely of can't discount the impact u.s. and european consumption

which remains pretty weak. factor, but i'm opec producers will not be making decisions to benefit shale producers, so in lookingse they will be after their own interests. about you can read more opec-plus and other key additions. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: let's take a look at this final trading day of the month. what a torrid november stop let's look at some of the markets we have been watching. lagging compared to the rest of asia. we are seeing a modest upside despite reaching a record high. the nikkei 225 going into the start of trading. we're looking at u.s. futures after the thanksgiving weekend

as we continue to watch for indicators of that recovery. intois trying not to fall biden incoming administration. what signals have we been getting when it comes to the future of u.s. iranian relations with the person considered the father of the nuclear industry in iran? >> it was certainly a provocative move. the outgoing trump administration working with israel to lay down some landmines. iran is keen to see the back of president donald trump, secretary mike pompeo, and other

iranian hawks. foreignear from iran's minister that there will continue to be looking ahead. start. for a fresh there have been indications that president-elect by is interested in rebooting the iran nuclear deal. ishink that everybody negotiating around this in a careful way at the moment. shery: have we heard anything from the incoming administration? >> we really haven't. biden and the people here are quite traditional in their approach to governing, i'm sure they would say that there is one administration at a time -- they're not going to step in and

shadowdo some kind of foreign policy. we did hear on one of the morning talk shows from the form ofhead of the joint cheifs staff that he hopes biden can calm the waters. there is so much anticipation that after the volatility of the trump years that biden will make things all right. it is a pretty big task. that is among the people in washington and beyond. one thing we heard is that jared kushner, the white house advisor, who is also president taking aon-in-law, is team of middle east negotiators back to saudi arabia and qatar to try to do some calming of the

waters themselves. the middle east peace initiative they have been working on. time is running out to get more initiatives done. they're on the way. whether they will engage on the issue of iran is hard to know. asia andming up next, japan work specter to grow at a healthy 5% coming into the year. we will discuss plunging projections and the outlook for 2021. if you're away from a screen you can find in-depth analysis on bloomberg radio, broadcasting from our studio and hong kong, listen via the app or bloomberg.com. stay with us. ♪

haidi: traffic regulators in the u.s. are investigating whether faulty suspension parts on more than 100,000 tesla cars could mean damaged tires. they've received dozens of complains about the tesla models s and x. three years ago, tesla admitted that some of those models had been fitted with suspension links that did not meet specifications.

reportsa's financial that google is looking for a global media partner -- the value of journalism on the platform. the tech giant is said to be looking for a content partner and has been in talk with news corporation and seven west media. there are currently no offers on the table. taiwan's global is in talks to buy siltronics for $4.5 billion. they expect them to offer one to five euros per share which is attractive and appropriate. a german company owes 30% of siltronics and says it is prepared to sell. the deal is expected to be announced in the second half of next month. shery: let's turn to economic growth across asia. large economies in china leading the recovery, expected to grow by slower than originally

expected. new zealand is worse hit. taiwan's success has made it has seen the smell of -- smallest cut to growth forecasts. let's bring in carlos casanova. it's great to have you with us. givensafe to assume that, these new waves of coronavirus cases, that the expected growth rate will not be as solid as previously thought? carlos: correct. that is a good point. there are two main things driving that point. first of all, early in the year, the economist were not effect -- expecting that the second wave -- takes place in september. second, on the sales side,

analysts -- themselves looking at end of year data. some of those projections might not have been so mindful of what that implies on a quarterly basis. china, we canike see that the current year-end forecast is too high. we saw disappointing numbers in south korea with projection -- production falling 2% year on year. we are seeing what monitory ash monetary authorities have tried to do which is to lower the rate and keep it there. they have not taken more action in south korea. can they afford not to when we are seeing a third wave of infections? keep conan definitely it iss accommodating, but unlikely that there will be more interest rate cuts. the government is concerned

about other fiscal imbalances that have been building up in south korea with the rounds of stimulus. the figures are deceptive because we had weaker numbers in october, but compared to october of last year with a national holiday. it is early to say how bad things are going to turn. things on the external end seem more positive. we expect the figures to rebound in november. most likely what we are going to see are more measures. things to ensure that the liquidity remain suitable with other potential banks around the region keeping an eye on this, on the loan moratoriums that are expected to expire in 2021. expecting china

pmi data to continue to expand. we are going to the point of the calendar year where you start to see distortions in the data. how important is it to not make any conclusions about the recovery until we get the february or march, post-chinese new year? >> it is that time of year. with the pmi figures we saw a significant uptick in nonmanufacturing pmi's. still well within the expansionary territory. [inaudible]

and exports as they have been that's notthe summer going to be a source of concern. it looks to be a little bit more volatile. it's important to monitor these fitgures but also the medium-term secular trends regarding the shift of consumption in china. that will lead to a broadening of the economic recovery and will make it more sustainable. haidi: we are getting a mixed bag of japanese data coming through the preliminary industrial production month on month numbers, a gain of 3.8%. better than expectations of 2.4%. the year on number is a contraction of 3.2% but better

than 4.6% contraction expected. those are the early numbers for october as japan continues to recover from the effect of the lockdown. base ofales, we have a 6.4%. softer than the gains of the previous month. we were expecting the month on month number to be stronger but largely in line with expectations. department stores and supermarkets sales are up by 2.9%. still falling short of estimates. the problem is with countries like japan, even some of these countries that have seemingly successfully handled the pandemic are starting to see a return of cases in clusters. to what extent is this the biggest

recovery? >> in the case of japan, we are seeing better activity. like in korea, we are seeing some risk going forward. that is predominately coming forward from this uptick in covid-19 cases. we are becoming more adept at navigating some of the risks working from home, ordering food instead of going out to restaurants. vaccine a lot of expectations. it's likely that the downturn will be less. it could have implications on the recovery. it could be we are looking at lagging growth figures. depending on the , for thechedules

asia-pacific, we might not see some of the kick-in until the second half of the year. much of the pent-up demand has already been sent out or used? we know that those cash handouts to runn are starting out but south korea is looking for another 4 trillion yuan. how much of it is left among consumers and the general public? there is still room for domestic demand growth in these economies. everything on the external side. korea have been impacted in other parts of the world. especially europe with the spike in the demand for electronics over the summer as we move to

working from home. there is a risk that that uptick could phase out heading into q4. 5gthe other hand, we do have productne launches, new launches that will help to sustain the demand a bit. what's more important heading e,to the next year is to se not exclude the possibility of there being weaker external the domestichether demand side, whether the subsidies will have a meaningful impact on consumption. there is room for improvement. it's not going to be as strong as the push that external demand has. we can see the dollar index falling to the weakest since april 28.

how much further downside is there for the greenback and how does that play out in terms of a headwind when it comes to emerging markets in asia? >> for asia, it's good news. it means conditions remain supportive. the investment outlook, we expect the u.s. dollar to continue on a gradual path. there are two reasons for that. the economics department -- performance will be a little bit more subdued in other parts of the world. you also have burgeoning levels of debt. deficits withtwin the -- deficit and the fiscal whereas youeasing, have a surplus in the euro zone and the asia-pacific. that's conducive to further u.s. dollar depreciation, conducive

to an environment of -- yields around 1%, or higher for the 10 -year. as investors seek returns, some of those funds will flow into higher yield domestic assets. china, we might see a more favorable environment for some of the risk here and in emerging markets as well, especially as we start to see those positive growth figures into 2021. haidi: carles casanova joining -- we will be getting more of a preview over the next hour with ubs. we will be getting the thoughts of the market analyst with the start of trading across tokyo in the next hour. let's look at how asian markets are trading.

broad upside on this final trading day of november, heading for the best month on record. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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she even beats her insurance price. good for you kate, good for you. goodrx, stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today. shery: welcome to daybreak asia. asia's major markets have just open for trade. our top stories this hour -- asia-pacific market that to start the week with gains as investors weigh coronavirus vaccine progress. it's been a record month for global equities. treasury one is a big loser as china's latest trade tariffs kick in. thisalia once to end

cremation against exporters. and sources tell us jack ma's group may struggle to lunch is ipo year as china demands a comply with new regulations. shery: we have more details on that breaking news -- according to regulatory officials familiar with the matter talking to bloomberg, the stock sale may be pushed to 2022 as we continue to see the overhaul of aunt group. tona is forming a task force make sure they comply with regulations and as it is still in the early stages of reviewing those changes to satisfy regulators who are demanding its business comply with new and proposed guidelines in areas including lending to consumers, there's so much work that needs to be done that these regulatory officials are telling bloomberg the ipo may not get done before 2022.

any delay in this ipo would be a setback for jack ma. slim chances of getting that done next year. let's take a look at the markets right now. the picture looking pretty good in japan. a little mixed when it comes to the nikkei, gaining half a percent and adding to the highest level since april 1991. topics unchanged at the moment but we have a little strength for the japanese yen, holding at that 104 level. we had seen some numbers as investors trying to divest including retail sales. the 10 year yield right now holding steady. , reallyook at korea taking the stock market to the highest on record already. the korean won at the moment is losing ground against the u.s.

dollar. we have seen a little resistance after the bok center it was ready to step in and stabilize currency markets if needed. haidi: we are watching trading here in australia. a potential to wipe all its losses for a year, but off the session hi, sidney trading higher at the moment, still the best november on record. the aussie dollar strengthening, we see the u.s. dollar trading at the lowest level since april 2018. the 10 year holding steady going into the rba decision. it is across asia or here in the u.s., the theme has been value. our next guest did not expect it to happen so soon. let's bring in the market

analyst at ig group. we had seen big tech be a big winner when it comes to the trading session on friday, but the general theme has been a rotation to value. dothis sustainable and why you feel like growth? textbookom a perspective, -- i think it is on the basis of the fact that this news came sooner than the market was pricing in. onre was the reversion going suchis unfolding after extraordinary outperformance that,ear, going beyond the past decade or so. my core thesis for longer term, for those looking for strong returns that growth remains the play and that's on the basis of deflation and interest rate expectations.

there is a sort of reversion in the ratio between value and growth but if you look further down the line, we will still be seeing growth outperformance in the bigger picture for a few years to come. why you feel like gold, despite the outflows shows weekly outflows when it comes to those gold etf's? more or less. it is an inflation and interest rate call. central-bank policy and what they are going to do to support markets. if you look at what's happening with gold at the moment, that massive liquidation is going on and that speaks to the market. a lot of retelling, it's panicked and a lot of end of world trade when it purchased gold effectively throughout the aar, realizing now there's light at the end of the tunnel and they want to put money to

work and are starting to outperform. look atingly, if you what really drives gold prices long-term, it is the u.s. dollar in real interest rates or real yields. gold prices diverge from real yields and the dollar is looking weaker longer term. this is a terrific opportunity to buy back into gold but that output is probably meaning it's going to decline in the shorter term. haidi: we have seen a robust rally going into the opec decision. nothing over the weekend and potentially more of a delay but it is hard to see any kind of sabotage on the supply and by opec. interested in you energy? to a certain extent.

getting into the market, market prices are starting to look a little choppy. we have a pretty significant break to the outside from a technical point of view through price resistance in the last couple of weeks in the energy space. i think there are two things as a growth energy play and that is how does the biden presidency go particular when it relates to normalizing relations with iran and on top of that, getting throughtion and data the vaccine being rolled out. i think the next step will be starting to watch the supply and demand dynamics from a political point of view but also from the point of view of a recovery.

shery: how much of those commodity calls reflecting the downward trend in the dollar and where do you see it go from here? kyle: i think we are seeing a cyclical downtrend. wasweekly close last week fascinating. i thought it settled right on ,rize support and obviously settling to the downside of the dollar index. the argument potentially being the dollar might be slightly we come backif with a solid november or december, there could be a recovery in the dollar overall. but we are looking at a business cycle starting to pick up. a dollar that sticks through that 92 level and has a lot of room to go to the downside,

that's in the dollar index, although we could see a little , theery in the rebalancing market is incredibly bullish at the moment. i think it would quickly become realized for 20 to anyone. like -- feels like the market has turned the page when it comes to u.s. related election volatility. even though we have president trump refusing to concede, the transition is happening and we don't expect anything to change to the contrary. is that a risk from a policy perspective or uncertainty perspective in this last month or so in office? the market is not pricing in a great deal if any political risk, at least domestically in the united states. , whatever his

challenges and whatever he to bets, he's going leaving office in a few months. the vix curve more or less flushes that out quite clearly. one thing that could upset the apple cart which the market is risk ining, meaningful ashort-term, there could be few landmines thrown so to speak by trump on his way out of office and some of that might center around the u.s. and china trade war. i think trump blames china for his election laws in many instances because of the virus and the way it disrupted the u.s. economy leading into the election itself. i think that could be something the market is discounting that

anything with trump is highly productive both. it's one of those situations where there is a risk that china policy, even domestic policy, trump could move to disrupt things and make the transition of power quite difficult. always great to have you. let's get you to karina mitchell who has the first word headlines. karina: president-elect joe biden has a senior communications team area -- composed entirely of women. stocky was a commute occasions director under president obama and spokesperson for the state department. kate bedingfield will be the white house commute occasions director, ashley atn will be commute occasions director for kamala harris. president trump has acknowledged that efforts to overturn the election will reach the supreme court. he has rehashed a litany of

claims about november 3 but failed to offer evidence of widespread fraud. president trump indicated his legal options could be running out but suggested there is no end date in mind. brexit teams worked over the weekend in london to seek a deal amid complete -- amid conflicting signs of progress. talks will continue despite warnings that brussel wants more compromise from the u.k. deal remainssays a possible though discussions have passed the mid-november deadline set by both for agreement. the operator of the japanese exchange is to be punished for the trading outage that halted business last month according to public broadcaster nhk. , including the tokyo exchange president will face unspecified penalties with the financial services agency expected to release further details later today.

global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake , powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. shery: still had, the outlook for china's recovery and pmi data do in the next hour. delay on the and group ipo. we will discuss what needs to be done next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: let's get more on the scoop we broke, the and group ipo is said to be facing slim chance of happening next year. it is another devastating blow for jack ma after the regulatory of his highly

anticipated ipo. what does the timing now look like? guest: kid morning. was thwarted rather abruptly. this could be revised in the next few months. our sources tell us it is slim. it's still in the early stages of reviewing changes and what they are demanding is they are facing new and proposed guidelines in areas including one of ants big businesses. with so much work needing to be officials sayry the initial public offering may not get done until 2022, well over a year from now. what does it mean not

only for jack ma, but those early investors? >> the biggest stumbling block is how big the landscape has shifted and many people expect the changes to continue starting from september. china has issued rules for big conglomerates like aunt that are involved with two financial vectors and has capped interest rates on some loans and capped the use of asset-backed securities. monthe out earlier this with stringent guidelines for online lending. finalized need to be and there are expectations that we will see more rules and regulations come out and next in line, could be wealth management, for instance. bigger concern, that this is not a one time deal. what sort of big changes could

we anticipate, given everything we have heard from beijing? candace: we have seen moves to raise more capital in these units and we have other companies looking at ipo's in a certain environment, they might have to change their plans. certainly, the model of an asset like online lender looks less and less likely to hold for the long run. we expect more capital, less leverage, greater scrutiny, which means the head evaluations of just a month ago look less likely. up to aand, it all adds lengthy series of changes.

just a month ago, they were on the cusp of the world's biggest ipo. you so much for everything. the latest on that and ipo. worse thanis brexit covid? we will look at the risk to the u.k. economy and the latest deadline. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: as the deadline for a brexit deal approaches, the risks to the economy are becoming increasingly clear. with just over a month to go before britain leaves the you and a warning that failure to reach an agreement could inflict long-lasting damage compounding the hit from covid-19. joni snyder joins us with the latest. how big a hit to the economy are we talking here? the u.k. economy could

if they don't have a trade deal in terms of disruptions and it has suffered from coronavirus. this could end up inflicting more damage than the pandemic in the long run. what we are hearing is the pandemic has put britain on a coat -- on a course for the biggest depression. gdp would be 3.75% lower than in march. office of budget responsibility estimates transitioning to a free-trade agreement would shed in the long run but without it, it would be losing 1.5% gdp.

it is clear that either way this is going to be costly, but without the trade deal, it will be much more costly. haidi: what about the damage on the job front? jobs really are on the line. unemployment is set to rise with 2.6 million people being out of work. trade deal is reached without that, they are saying you could see unemployment of 8.3% and financial services and manufacturing which relies on manufacturing would be really hit as well as food and textile producers. news. way, it is not good but with the trade deal, they are saying the pain will be somewhat mitigated. in the longer term, the picture

would be brighter, so a lot of pressure on that deal happening. we are still hearing optimism that we could see a deal within days if some compromises reached. if there were a november deadline and there's no sign of compromise? jodi: dominic raab has been saying both sides are showing pragmatism and good faith and, as you noted, a deal to be done. but the upstanding issue to be resolved in the final days of talk is fishing rights and he has called on the eu to recognize regaining control of british waters is a question of sovereignty, not something they can easily avoid. it is a big issue and has become the issue and a major obstacle. they only have a few days left to get a deal to push this

becauseby that deadline it takes a while and you have to have all the eu nations buying off on it, you can't do it just before the december 31 deadline. the question is whether they would extend the deadline and they have said they are not extending the deadline again but this hugeandemic and hit that would happen to the u.k. economy, there may be some willingness to extend the deadline. haidi: jodi snyder there with what we continue to say is crunch time when it comes to brexit negotiations. other key negotiations taking on mobile. available let's get you the latest check

on business headlines. told management at hvc is looking for a complete withdrawal and a complete retreat is said to be unlikely. toucing investment banking concentrate on asia and the middle east. they slashed more than 30,000 jobs amid tensions between the u.s., china and hong kong. they are planning to relocate several best-selling labels to other luxury growth markets where demand remains unsatisfied. treasury says it will look toward europe and the u.s. to fill the potential void left by china. an insurance group bolstering its position as the biggest insurer in eastern europe. around a billion dollars. it makes them the largest insurer in hungary, which has

been a long-term goal. shery: justin on the bloomberg, we have an update on president-elect biden -- he is likely to use a walking boot for several weeks. he sprained his foot. a hairline fracture has been confirmed in the middle of his foot so he will be walking with a walking boot. he hurt himself playing with his dog. he is still full on when it comes to the transition team. he is getting daily briefings and his meetings and transition advisors as we get a shape of his cabinet with various nominations to different posts in his government. china pmi data due in less than an hour. .e get a preview this is bloomberg.

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visits are confidential and affordable. need a prescription? your doctor can send it to your pharmacy or have it mailed to you. get the healthcare you deserve at goodrx.com. karina: this is daybreak: asia -- global reported current virus infections have soared past 62 million with the u.s. still the epicenter. recordn california hit a with los angeles and san francisco putting down tighter restrictions. a vaccine is expected before the end of the year in the u.k. says it hopes to start before christmas. areany says infection rates falling too slowly and the festive season could trigger a new surge. opec-plus failed to agree on output increases. discussionsmost

supported maintaining current levels, but the uae and kazakhstan wanted to lift output. producers will reactivate almost 2 million barrels a day of currently halted output. iran is preparing to bury the man seen as the father of its nuclear industry but says it withnot fall into jeopardy future talks with the u.s.. they say their policies won't change because of the death of the top scientist who died in an attack on his car. no one has claimed responsibility. chinese regulatory officials have said the chance of jack ma's and great being able to revive its ipo your are looking increasingly slim. still looking at reviewing changes needed to appease regulators. an additional delay of a year or more would be a set back in the scuttled ipo.

global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake , powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell, this is bloomberg. we are counting down to the latest pmi data out of china. the manufacturing pmi data index is likely to rise further, reflecting more working days and a rush to advance projects before year end. the nonmanufacturing center -- sector continues to be revised as well. we will be with her shortly as we get her connected. look at what markets are doing across asia right now. seemednow seeing gains -- same thing for the nikkei. we had seen gains in markets that are now losing ground with the cost down half a percent. both of these markets were at a historic high that we have not

seen in a few years. the nikkei coming down from its highest level since april 1991. might that surprising we be seeing some consolidation. we will get back with more on daybreak asia, especially when it comes to the china numbers. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. an investigation on whether faulty suspension parts on tesla cars could mean damage tires. they say they have received dozens of complaints involving failure at low speed and general driving. three years ago, tesla admitted some model s cars had been fitted with suspension links that did not meet specifications. australia's financial review reporting google is angling for a deal out of legislation that would see it and facebook forced

to pay for the value of journalism on its platform. the tech dry and is said to be looking for a content partner. are currentlyere no offers on the table. the german manufacturer of silicon wafer says it expects them to offer 125 euros a share. they say they are prepared to sell at that price. the deal is expected to be announced in the second week of next month. we are counting down to the latest pmi data out of china. the manufacturing pmi index likely to rise further into expansion this month. let's bring in our next guest, tao. china economist, wang

great to have you with us. we are expecting some strength when it comes to these numbers but if you look under the hood, we have seen some weak employment numbers. one of the components of the pmi. can you break down what we are expecting today? wang: we are expecting it to indeed show another expansion. orders, especially export orders may be weakening somewhat given the european and u.s. economies are seeing some mobility restrictions with virus cases rising again. there could be some weakness pointing forward. on the domestic front, we think consumption demand, retail sales in november should have been relatively strong as well. i think the employment number

may be gradually picking up but there may be export order weakness ahead. does this weakness threaten the financial stability picture? there is a chart showing how china's overall levels are passed 300% of gdp. what can we expect from policymakers? think temporary weakness of export in the next couple of months is going to have a meaningful impact on the financial stability. china is on a pretty solid recovery pass. we are looking for fourth-quarter gdp growth around 5.5%. debt has increased quite a lot. maybe 25 percentage points as share of gdp, but policy is gradually exiting with

incredible slowing, gdp growth rebounding quite sharply. we are looking for a debt to gdp declined by two percentage points. of course we could see a bit bee default and there could market volatility in the credit markets, but we don't see symptomatic problems. haidi: when it comes to the level of liquidity, around november or december is when we start to see a wrap up of fiscal spending. do you expect liquidity conditions to remain supportive even if there is talk about a potential tightening? think it will not tighten right away. if there is an increased need for liquidity in the last couple of weeks because

-- there were great spreads and they injected liquidity and so i think they continue to do this kind of operation. on the fiscal side, there's not much of a new bond issuance. whatever has been issued will continue to be deployed. i think the liquidity situation in the bond markets will probably be ok. we have seen the top level ambition to double the size of the economy by 2035. we have heard that is going to require 4.7 percent annual growth to hit that target. what about risks of going back to these arbitrary gdp number targeting when for a long time now most economists have said they should not be doing that to reach some kind of magical gdp number every year?

: first of all, the setrnment has not quite that number, so it is a proposal. nominal time by growth, ih is nominal think it is achievable and will require real growth much lower than that. a pragmatics approach over the longer-term. theimportant thing is government feels they need to toe some kind of target anchorpolicy and expanding in various areas, for example infrastructure, public services, r&d and so on. increasingly, there is a d emphasis on a particular growth target, so the range will be

pretty wide and the medium target is going to be more pragmatic. is the range for the chinese yuan? policymakers getting uncomfortable with the strength of the yuan, but not so much this month. why is that? wang: i think they have indicated that they have become more tolerant of you want appreciation. they wanted to have more of a market determined exchange rate which means there's naturally more volatility than there used to be. with the dollar weakening and china recovering stronger and more portfolio inflows, there are fundamentals supporting the r&d trends.

i think it's indicating to the markets they are more comfortable about this than before. we are looking for further appreciation ahead. next year we are looking for 6.4 and in the middle of the year, the currency could be even stronger, say 6.2 if the dollar weakens more. seen in theve latest report this focus on the alignment of monetary aggregates alongside nominal gdp. what does that tell you about the potential path to globalization looks like going into next year? tone ofe general monetary aggregates gives them a lot of freedom in moving it a bit tighter or looser. the situation is the economy is rebounding, debt has increased a

the so next year, authorities are increasingly going to focus on containing financial risk, containing leverage. practice,in actual there statements of monetary aggregates is -- this year it has far exceeded that. central bank pursues this kind of monetary policy where others are keeping policy very low, there's going to be quite a bit of support going forward. keen toral bank is very promote the rmb globalization, so as it stays strong, that is going to attract more investors into r&d assets. how much do economist like yourself factor in more

geopolitical tension between the u.s. and china? we continue to hear perhaps these big chinese giants could get this delisted from u.s. exchanges. how that effects corporations in china and is there a way you can quantify the economic impact of that? wang? those are great questions. indeed, we do think geopolitical intentions that have increased will probably be here to stay and there's not going to be a fundamental change in u.s.-china relations even though a biden administration means more predictable relations and less ad hoc moves. forcing chinese companies to delist that will hit the financial markets. be the economy, there will minimal impact. i think what matters more is if the u.s. focused on tech

rivalry, tech restrictions and broad export restriction to china to various industries, not just a company or two, that could bring a more significant impact. it is very hard to quantify. we think it could lower china's forward. growth going it could be a significant impasse depending on specific u.s. actions, whether they work with allies and how china responds. we always appreciate your time and insight. as we look ahead to the china pmi data coming out later today. take a look at how markets are trading on this last trading day of november. asian equities heading for the best month on record. we see muted sentiment when it comes to trading in japan despite factory output continuing to gain and we see the emergence of the virus there as well.

we are also seeing downside now with sidney stocks trading lower by .3%. kiwi stocks still keeping their head above water. you can always find the in-depth analysis over on bloomberg radio. in on the apple or bloombergradio.com. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: hong kong is suspending all face-to-face contact through wednesday as they battle a new spike in coronavirus cases. my guest comes to us from hong kong. we know this latest rise in infections is obviously something that impacts you as having kids in school or not in school anymore. guest: that's right. but before i get there, let me tell you where we are in terms of numbers. we are definitely on heightened alert again, the territory reported 115 new coronavirus cases on sunday. 62 were linked to a cluster involving dance studios that still remain open. dancerings cases that studios to almost 500. i know for people listening in

new york, that such a small amount of infections but what is important to notice hong kong doesn't report a triple digit rise in daily cases. it is really unusual for us. we usually see single-digit rises was out anything more puts .nyone -- puts everyone on a they have announced a fresh wave of restrictions and a lot of people are unhappy about that. shery: here in new york, we continue to see thousands of cases a day and they are reopening schools even though we are above the original threshold. just staying in hong kong, you're telling us during the break that as a parent, having these schools closed down again is really challenging. mood around the city right now? oanh: for sure. i spoke to parents last week and a lot of our children's parents and friends, they announced

yesterday they are going to close all face-to-face classes at kindergarten, primary and secondary schools. that's going to start on wednesday and will remain shut through the christmas holiday. it's unlikely these kids will return until 2021. people like me are frustrated, parents like me are frustrated. this is the third round this year. i think a lot of parents feel school in hong kong seems to be targeted very early while other cities -- you mentioned new york, they seem to be opening schools and keeping them open until the last minute possible, so there's a lot of frustration about that. we spoke to business owners who say they are confused by some of these restrictions. a lot of these infections in this last cluster were specific to a dance studio. with the announcement of the restrictions are related to bars and massage parlors and karaoke

parlors. inse businesses are going up arms. people want to see a more transparent alert system that will help them be able to plan and prepare better. you look around asia almost a year on, you look at which countries have handled the pandemic well. hong kong, korea are seeing surges. can we say there are some models that work better than others now? i speak to parents is -- parents and businesses, the model i suggest is singapore. they announced a three-phase system, a roadmap and gradual resumption of normal life. you have new zealand, which introduced a four tier alert system and that has received a lot of raves for being clear in communicating the system to residents. south korea which is seeing the

highest number of new cases at about eight months, they have sociallaxing restrictions. that is the kind of system that bar owner say they want in hong kong. the latest there on hong kong and virus cases in asia. the world's largest advertising company seeing renewed confidence among its clients amid that progress. as the holiday season rules closer, mark reed spoke exclusively to bloomberg about where he is seeing the most resilience. >> we are used to vaccines coming in this side of christmas coming early next year, i think it's becoming a lot more confident to invest in the future. back in march and april, everyone slammed on the brakes, understandably, when the first lockdowns were issued. i don't think we've seen quite

that reaction. i don't think you could say they are that optimistic but you could see consumer spending at christmas. it bridges us into what promises to be a pretty strong 2021. at least from an advertising perspective. we expect the u.s. to be down about 9% this year and expected to grow 12% next year. in the u.k., we expect a similar progression into 2021. the regions or sectors that surprise you on the upside that are stronger than expected. what sectors are spending more? mark: coming into this, if you down 9% orould be

10% this year, we could have predicted a worse situation. the advertising industry or marketing industry has not been as impacted by covid as expected by ourselves and analysts. one reason is consumer spending other isup and the that we continue to invest and usmunicate -- what strikes as the growth of our largest clients in the third quarter, 11 of our top 30 clients increased their spending. we are seeing good growth in consumer packaged goods, health care and technology companies. we see good growth from companies like unilever. that are cases terrible for businesses, small companies that find it harder to

operate. geographically, china has not oz back as quickly as we would have expected. we do expect that to come back more strongly. i think the u.s. has been resilient. we will watch what happens over thanksgiving with some hesitation, perhaps as we do over christmas here in europe. we have breaking news -- s&p global is in talks to buy ihs markets for 44 billion dollars according to the dow jones. this would make it the largest deal of the year and this would be the biggest deal that would combine two of the largest providers of data to wall street. globallion deal that s&p is in talks to rick watt -- to acquire ihs markets. that's it for daybreak asia. the china market open is next. this is bloomberg.

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>> it is not :00 a.m. in beijing and shanghai. welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open." i am tom mackenzie. >> we are counting down to the opening of trade. our top story today, the latest reading on china's economy is due at any second. analysts expect manufacturing and services to continue the recovery despite weakness outside. >> of bloomberg