aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. ♪ manus: good morning. i'm manus cranny, with annmarie hordern. here are your top stories. ending with a whimper, stocks slip at the end of a record month as investors monitor progress toward the coronavirus vaccine. anthony fauci says there is life at the end of the tunnel. gatherseconomic rebound pace with manufacturing pmi at a three year high.

company's shares slumped after reports it could be added to the u.s. blacklist. discord rains. oil retreats as opec fails before today's meeting. the uae and pakistan are said to be opposed to the current cuts. 6:00 a.m. in london. it has just gone 10:00 a.m. in the dad. rally?uld stop the maybe if yields bust above 1%, but that looks highly unlikely in a world of quasi-yield controls. good to have you back in hq. annmarie: good morning, manus. glad to be back in london hq. one of the things the market seemingly continues to forget about, but this weekend we heard from all the top experts in the united states. dr. deborah birx saying post-thanksgiving we are already seeing the disease

likely.s 10 times more awake is -- w keeps her awake is what could happen after memorial day. aboutey are dealing with 100,000 infections a day. manus: go to the front of bloomberg.com. we have the headlines coming up across the bloomberg terminal at the moment. take a look at bloomberg.com because at the front of that, because of the lockdown, and i emphasize the word lockdown in the united kingdom, cases have fallen by 13%. the medicine is a lot tougher to get a drop that you want to come up with the markets are giving back a little bit this morning. records have been break in, but we are positive. what gives? annmarie: global equities, as you say, are softer this morning, moving to the downside. msci asia-pacific down, along with s&p 500 futures.

we are seeing weakness in the dollar. inchinglar, 1.19, closer to 1.20. what does that mean next week when the ecb meets? brent crude, down 0.9%. you and i would have been at that meeting today in vienna. now all of that moves online. there is some drama from the home country, the uae. they do not seem to want to ratchet back production. they are ready to get what they can back on the table. it will be very interesting with the group ends up coming up with. the first doses of the coronavirus vaccine are potentially just weeks away from distribution. the white house covid task force is promising a rapid rollout to millions of americans by the end of the year. >> there is light at the end of the tunnel because we really will be seeing vaccine soon. certainly, arest

going to be vaccinating a portion of the individuals in the first priority at the end of december. alsorie: the u.k. is hoping to begin its own vaccine program before christmas. joining us is the ceo of potassium asset management. what is your initial thoughts of this record november we had? do you think the market is running too hot as risks still remain? guest: markets have come through far too fast in the month of november. we have global markets up 13.6% in the month of november. particular ise in overweight at the moment. you can understand the euphoria around vaccine news, around the election results, but christmas poses a real covid spread event risk and we have to be sensitive with that, with the numbers increasing.

everyone expects a vaccine on their. expects a vaccine on their doorsteps q1 or q2. we have seen significant inflows, massive volatility, we have seen the cost of hedging declining. economic data, earnings look better, but they are from an overstated low base. it is time to be cautious rather than enthusiastic and bank the gains we just seen. manus: good to see you. it depends on what you believe the big shifts are going to be into 2021. one of the stories i read yesterday is we could all be complacent, and one of those underpriced risks is that the melt up could only be getting going. could you subscribe to that? what would it take for you to subscribe to further melt up inequities? -- in equities? guest: it is tough to see

immense of decline at the moment. i suspect we have some tail risk around the u.s. elections. we have some tail risk around brexit and brexit uncertainty, particularly in domestic u.k. equities. they are probably the most vulnerable in all this. if we see a trade agreement being reached shortly, that will be positive, but there are massive differences that still exist. i know you have been covering that quite well over this last weekend. there is talk of potential for your review calls. we will see if that plays out. this will have an impact on consumers, workers, travelers, lots of inflated costs, lots of restrictions, and financials are for t -- are potentially vulnerable. they have been left out of all the trade talks. we have also got really bad unemployment data, european unemployment data, and it is

looking quite grim. that is not something investors need to be focused on at the moment. annmarie: as you mentioned the financials, a redhead just crossing the terminal this morning. they are going to cut further about 15% of staff by 2024. we will be speaking to the cfo a little later. when you look at the rotation into cyclicals, are all cyclicals created equal? guest: definitely not. cyclical trade is here at the moment. we saw massive rotation out of u.s. into europe with numbers we have seen in november as well. we think the cyclicals have more to play out. but it really does vary from sector to sector, and also from geographical region to geographical region, depending on where they are with covid, where they are with stimulus plans, where they are with government issuing more debt. it varies from place to place. you have to be specific when looking at the investment

criteria and the way to look at things going into 2021. yogi, let's break a few more of those lines. we have got abn. these are substantial headlines in our worth taking a moment to reflect on. abn amro cutting. this lies to the point of cyclical exposure, perhaps excluding financials. they will restructure and make a provision of around 150 million euros through to 2023. they are going to have a task -- 2024 cost target. 7 million euros of additional cost savings. down thegoing to wind corporate institutional bank, and they say that as well on track, but they are still trying to get a return on equity of 10%. therein lies the point. within the financials, you need these dividends to return. but you have got net interest

pressure and margin all the way around. do you have anything -- one minardaid we have to pay to take financials. what would we need to pay you to take the banks on? guest: we would stay clear of european banks. it is hard to see them making money in this environment. it does not look like rates will increase quickly in europe. the crisis for european banks does not look good. we are steering clear of them. is that just in europe or is that around the world as well? guest: that is primarily in europe because of the exit rate sentiment. you have rates in germany, france, even the u.k. when you

get into the yield curve. the u.s. markets and financials are not looking as bad. the rate environment is a lot more positive. you have more stimulus, you have dividend yields returning more quickly. the u.s. market is looking better. the valuations in u.s. financials are so beaten up. we are starting to see exposure in that space. manus: stay with us. yogi dewan, hassium asset manager. you will have to pay a lot of fund managers to buy these banks. let's get the first word headlines with laura wright. laura: good morning. opec-plus has failed to agree on a delayed to january's output hike before today's meeting. bloomberg sources say many members support keeping production at current levels, but the united arab emirates and because asked on -- and kazakhstan oppose. the cartel could add to millions

-- 2 million barrels a day back into the market. a post-brexit trade deal could be done in days if the eu is willing to compromise on fisheries, according to u.k.'s former secretary -- foreign secretary. if negotiations fail, millions of businesses and consumers could face higher costs and disruptions to supply chains. swiss motors has rejected proposals i could have altered the corporate landscape in the country. almost 60% opposed and initiative to ban the swiss national bank from investing in defense companies. a second measure to hold multinationals responsible for human rights and environmental lapses also failed. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie, manus? manus: thank you so much. laura wright in london. coming up, china's recovery on

track. strong economic data pushes the gauge to a three-year high. details to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

."nus: it is "daybreak: europe the latest numbers from china are in, and we are in recovery increasing. meanwhile, the pboc injects $30 million into financials, addressing the concerns of liquidity. yogi dewan is at hassium asset management. we will have to pay you to buy banks, but how much

encouragement are we going to have to give you to load up on china mainland equities in the first instance, given the data sweeps we have just had? guest: we are overweight china, specifically commerce, education, and health care. we saw the recent trade deals as positive news in the currency markets. we have seen massive yuan strength. we expect these to continue. hashe bond markets, china overtaken japan as the second biggest bond market in the world. the u.s.-china relationship is taking a back foot post u.s. election result. china is not going to concede much. biden is not looking to aggregate. it looks to be well ahead of much of the developed countries in terms of bringing the covid cases under control. they have managed to avoid a second wave. you have xi jinping congratulating biden, you have positive gdp growth numbers, whereas the u.s. and

europe were contracting. the markets are almost up 6% to date. 14% year today. we have been overweight for quite some time. wonder a lot of the demand we are seeing with the pmi was domestic demand. higher could we see china move if the rest of the world is still falling behind? how much does the next leg rely on the world getting their acts together when it comes to covid-19? guest: china has always been a domestic growth story, not an export growth story. so we think there is a lot more in the china trade at the moment. areoing a lot of thin to sportheir economy, avoiding the second wave. their financial system is financed and backed. you are seeing this reflected in the pmi data, and also gdp growth numbers as well. we think there is a lot more to

come with china as it continues to grow. of course, if the rest of the stay focusedsuit, on the domestic growth story as you quite rightly say. that is how we have been approaching the investment news. pboc: what does that do to if it is full on bull mode? does the pboc move to a more normalized setting in 2021? guest: it looks like they will continue to apply more stimulus, more support in financial systems. get that banking system to develop the bond market. pressure not got the of the second wave that europe has, that the u.k. has, and that the u.s. has, with the increasing death rates we are

seeing. annmarie: i wanted to ask you about the yuan, because some businesses are saying profits and export orders are coming under pressure because of the strength of the yuan. do you think the pboc is going to have to step in? guest: they will inevitably have to step in. a lot of this is being driven by inflows and the fact that they have such a large trade surplus. you cannot really stop the inflows. expect it to continue. expect to see some intervention because the pboc will not want to see too much yuan strength. but it is much stronger than it has been the last year, up about 6.55%. that is quite meaningful. pay close attention to it. i found something which i quite like. it is goldilocks, but with a different hue. under loves, under owned, under positioned. if you look at e.m. through the

fourth quarter, the highest in eight years, and deutsche bank is saying this is one of the most underinvested assets. on a new dollar weakness story, if you believe in that -- by the way, that highlighted block at the end was the inflows for the quarter -- if you believe you are in a regime shift on the dollar lower, does that bring you to a regime shift tire for 2021? guest: yes, it does. there are a lot of things happening that are encouraging for opening markets. youou quite rightly said, have seen a lot of dollar weakness.we are of the belief that will continue. we have currencies on the pbp basis. about 16 percent undervalued. we are expecting to see significant dollar weakness, and em will be the big beneficiary. the other thing to look at is as

we see the world r reboot next year, we will see commodities doing well. gdp. a recovery boost to the big beneficiaries are the emerging markets. we are overweight in emerging markets. we expect to see them do really well over the next six to 12 months. annmarie: our colleague in hong kong david ingles points out a really good question. we constantly point out how china is doing well, but where is the inflation? emerging terms of markets, inflation seems to be less of an issue. and inflation in the u.s., europe, and the u.k. is very unlikely at the moment, bearing in mind where gdp numbers are, where oil prices are. it is very hard to see the theage investor going out,

average consumer going out and spending when unemployment levels are so high. people are losing their jobs. we are not expecting huge amounts of inflation at the moment and that is reflected in the bonds and their pricing. in the emerging markets story, we would like to see some inflation. less of a positive in the developed markets. manus: -- annmarie: yogi dewan, thank you so much for joining us, ceo of hassium asset management. coming up, oil uncertainty. .rude retreats at a not so boring meaning at -- meeting after all. this is bloomberg. ♪

is "daybreak: europe." annmarie hordern in london. they will begin vaccinating the general public this year. russian authorities are racing to distributive vaccine as hospital beds phil and cases rise across the country. russia's largest lender is saying the economy will rebound, but a slow recovery will not be immediate. we spoke explosively to our -- we spoke exclusively to our guest. guest: according to our preliminary assessments, the economy on the whole will be rebounded. that will be the condition of the economy, upward dynamic. 3.5% going to be 2.5% to that is going to be the recovery growth, a rebound.

see it, next year, the economy will not go back to the 2013 levels. 2022 will probably be the year -- well, but again, the vaccines in the medicines and the most recent inventions will be achieved. if all those help to stop the spread of the pandemic, then by the mid-or end of 2022, the economy will rebound to parameters of 2013. that we canafter talk to returning to our profit targets. sberbank'sannmarie: cl on reviving the bank's profits. formal talks ahead of the opec-plus meetings failed to

reach a consensus for the hike in january. juliette saly has the morning call. what are you looking at? juliette: quite a few interesting calls coming through after we saw opposition from the uae and cause it stand. kazakhstan. the relationship between the u.s. and china could weigh on demand. we have had for weeks of gains on the oil market. will that uncertainty from what we will see from opec-plus break the winning streak with crude on its best weekly gain since may? rebalancings sees a led by the vaccine we are all hoping for. they say that even though they expect opec-plus to rebound, they will see $65 a barrel next year. in europe, you could see short-term demand increased due to the -- decreased due to the lockdowns.

millionbe a 3 barrel a day drop. they have also reiterated that you should take profit on june 2021 brent versus june 2022, reiterating the recommendation to belong on december 2021 brent forecast. all of this coming as we hope there will be this vaccine and some normalization in the oil market. but certainly today, you are seeing a replacement coming through on the trade price. manus: thank you very much. that will not last for very long. there is a word in arabic. no. i say it a lot on this show. what do you reckon? [speakingi will say foreign language] to your

arabic. they say that if there are not cuts, it will be five dollars to the downside at the current level. ♪ in a land not so far away, people are saving hundreds

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>7 good morning. i am annmarie hordern. this is a regular. stocks slipped as investors monitor progress towards the coronavirus vaccine. anthony fauci says there is light at the end of the tunnel. recovery on track. china's economic rebound gathers pace as manufacturing pmi is at a three year high.

it comes as shares slumped on reports it could be added to u.s. blacklists. abn amro will cut a further 15% of staff by 2024. the outgoing cfo joins us shortly to discuss the group's strategic plans. you off. morning to normally you and i would be together in vienna. we are following it all virtually. it is the last day of the month. a record month of november. what can it take to pull back from where we are today? good morning. reality between the delivery of those vaccines and possibly the risks that come over the next three months to six months. take your mind back to when russia exited through the doors in vienna. let's talk about the oil story.

that was literally a flamethrower class global risks. they walked out and the entire world imploded that night. and we were 10% screaming from the sidelines. what is the risk to the oil market? the uae is not in a happy position at the moment. is interesting. it is supposed to be quite a boring meeting, wasn't it? we planned for them not to bring oil map onto the market because it is a precarious situation but that vaccine means mobility and mobility means an economic recovery. inching further to get some more crude on the market and you are seeing decent prices. manus, that risk that you remember when you were there, it's one that many of them had in the back of their minds.

manus: equity markets are flying. bond volatility at a low. equity market volatility is above average. global equities on record at central record months. record after record. commit and look at what has happened in the european market, up 15%. markets, onety point $7 trillion added to them. spain, italy, greece. have a look at the oil market. the fractious nest comes through. are.ests say you the under loved and under own with value is in ems. let's shift to the narrative slightly. ambitiousannounced 12 sustainability goals for the

coming decades including achieving gender parity throughout the workforce. it wants to support 10,000 women entrepreneurs in the diamond producing partner countries and make its own operations carbon neutral by 2030. the man with the plan is the ceo of debeers. a very good day to you, sir. ambitions you are setting in terms of sustainability so the question i have for you is is this an internal enlightenment moment or is this pressure, reality and pressure, coming from shareholders? these are pretty big ambitions. >> good morning. thank you. this is very much an internal target. we have been doing this for years, incidentally. a call for a decade for action,

more inequality coming out of covid. such a great story to tell. we launched these really ambitious targets. both targets, as you say, to ensure that you can create a positive lasting impact in our communities and in the natural world. in simple terms, it's about making the world a safer, fairer, equal, and healthier place. annmarie: what is the trajectory of carbon footprint for mined diamonds? diamonds, wel recover diamonds from the earth. are so when they precious because they are unique. they are forever. a diamond is forever. they will last forever. it's important that we are consistent with the way the world is changing. we have a very ambitious task to

be carbon neutral 2030 and we will get there in a couple of ways. we will reduce the amount of energy we use in our minds. will use things like solar and wind. opportunity.at is rock in which diamond found has natural carbon capture qualities. we are confident that by 2030, we will be carbon neutral. you still produce synthetic diamonds as well. the core and the lifeblood is mined diamonds. our the move today on carbon this in many ways esg,p forward that we are very aware, and that we have very laudable ambitions?

and perhaps to convince people to stick with you? and the beauty of a diamond is forever? bruce: the two markets are completely different. the natural business, our core business, is different from the board tory diamonds, -- laboratory diamonds. the real beauty of a natural diamond is it is unique, rare. there is only one individual diamond, the one that you have. it has done an incredible amount of good. ingive you a couple stories, botswana in 1967, it was one of the five poorest countries in the world. it has 4000 miles of roads and 3000 schools, on the back of the government wisely investing. that is the kind of things natural diamonds do for countries. thehe hiv space, we were

first mining company in the world to provide retro virals. we operate in botswana and countries where disease is rampant. that can only be done because of the benefits of the natural diamond to the communities in which we operate, very different from the fashion that is laboratory diamonds. annmarie: i want to ask you a question on what you are seeing right now in terms of sales. we saw diamond sales hitting a complete halt, down 96% from a year earlier. christmas, chinese new year, these are massive events for diamonds. what are early sales looking like? may have been better than we would have hoped. china has bounced back. i would later suggest china is doing at least as well or slightly better than it was a year ago. invested in the

natural diamond as they were before the pandemic. the recovery was a bit slower and more catchy. very encouraging. people have come out of lockdown understanding things that really mattered to them like relationships, and diamonds are the perfect thing to celebrate a relationship with. even though consumers may have less coming out of covid, we are positive they will be spending a little bit less but more on things that matter. the diamond is well-positioned for a strong christmas. thanksgiving to christmas in the u.s. and chinese new year are very important to us. a lot of focus is going into marketing. but we are very positive. manus: you are giving annmarie a lot of ideas. i am not in the diamond category. i am in the synthetic. can we get a distinction from you in the markets?

how much more business are you doing online as a result of covid? what has that trajectory been like? the person-to-person sales, how much is it down or are they in recovery as we come out of covid? industry softmond sells the bulk of diamond -- people browse online and then to bring them into their stores. there's no question that under covid, those businesses have done really well. we have seen online sales just as much as double over this period but probably about 20% of all diamonds are sold online. there is a long way to go and it's partly for the reasons you mentioned. consumers like to come in and see the goods. an expensive diamond is a tremendous experience. a long way to go before we go beyond that.

that's a great channel for those who do have an online business. at the very high-end, we have seen very good pickup as well. you see pockets of people buying. there's no question that there is significant interest at the very high-end. financial markets are volatile. bruce cleaver, ceo of debeers, on where the market is in terms of diamond sales. we will get a strategy update. abn amro will cut a further 15% of staff for 2024. the outgoing cfo joins us to discuss those results and lines, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. this is daybreak era. i am annmarie hordern alongside manus cranny in dubai. abn amro is cutting 15% of staff. the bank is aiming to save 700 million euros on top of substantial cuts in a bid to regain earnings. clifford abrahams joins us. thank you so much for joining us, clifford. let's kick it off with job cuts. 15% of your staff. you have 18,000 employees. this is almost 3000. is this it or are there more job cuts to come after this? clifford: no, this is it. 15% represents our plan on reduction through 2024, so it's four years and it is a material amount contributing to the $700

million of cost savings but it's roughly what we have executed in the past few years and we will do it steadily over time. we will retrain our staff. it will not be all that once. it will be study, considered, and deliberate. manus: good morning to you. steady, deliberate, and considered. which portions of the business are going to bear the biggest job losses? will it be the retail branch network? if so, what portion? how does it split down? our cost savings and consequently our role reductions will be across the business. we have quite a small branch network in the netherlands, a little over 100 branches. we expect to bring that down steadily over time. regarding there branches. we announced we would wind down

our corporate bank outside of europe. early this year. that is part of that 50%. and that will have an effect on roles as well so we inl be creating roles respect to growth segments we see in our business. we will use technology to deliver convenient banking daily services and increasingly we will apply our people to helping our clients solve their financial problems. annmarie: you promised to come with a capital update but this morning, you have a same target to the dividend. why is it unchanged? clifford: no, we have given our capital framework and we are willncing our payout ratio be 50% of earnings and we have also indicated the level of capital we are targeting.

13% and we will consider buybacks when we are in excess of 15%. we have given clarity around our capital framework when we are able to resume dividends. the ecb has a recommendation. banks in europe don't pay dividends right now. clearly comply with that. as conditions improve, we want to give clarity on dividends and possible buybacks and our approach to that, and that is what we are doing today. frames, ithe time have been through this with a targetof ceo's, and that is a contingency for the payout. what is your timeframe and how optimistic are you that it is realistic? are doingwhat we today is we are adopting basel our primary metric.

we think the time to do that is today and not wait for the rules to come in because we want to be well prepared and to manage the it. through currently, the expectation, 2023. we are prepared for that now. our capital position is 15%. by adopting this as our primary metric, we can give the bank and our investors comfort and stability about what they can expect so we are well capitalized at this uncertain time and when the ecb recommendation is lifted, we will consider dividends and buybacks based on the framework i gave you earlier. annmarie: do you think investors are too demanding in their hope for shareholder payouts given the economic crisis and the uphill battle a lot of banks, especially in europe, face? clifford: i think it is right that investors look to banks to provide dividends. that's why investors own stocks

and banks have been an income stock but in times like these, uncertain economic times, i think it is right that banks really safeguard their financial strength. that money remains within the bank. i know investors get frustrated ban, bute dividend the money is in the bank and we stand ready to resume when conditions are less uncertain. shape ands in good our capital positions, around 15%, so it's around the level we would consider buybacks at the right time so we are pretty resilient in current times. what scale of buybacks with the ambition be? moves -- do they back away a takeover possibility?

clifford: i would say they are responsible plays. an uncertain environment. we have strong franchises and a strong capital position. what we are setting out today is where we will leverage those strengths in our core markets, cost reduction plans that we indicated and discussed earlier. i'm giving clarity on dividends and how we will think about buybacks in the future. we need to recognize that it is still uncertain, times are still tough, but what we are doing i think is being confident and ambitious in setting up our plans for the next four years despite the uncertainty so investors, staff, and our clients know what to expect as their uncertainty diminishes over time. annmarie: this might be one of your last interviews as the cfo of abn amro. you said he will be moving to virgin money. what advice do you have your successor at the bank? clifford: i have been intimately

involved in our new strategy which i discussed earlier. successor would be to really continue the out thatthat was laid our ceo and timo set out later today to investors and analysts. i'm confident that it's a strong bank not only with strong capital liquidity but also great and i'm confident in the success of the bank going forward. manus: we wish you well. you have always been a great friend of daybreak europe. best.h you the very let's see how investors take the topline line headlines. clifford abrams, cfo over at abn amro. thank you for joining us. president-elect joe biden announces economic and

communications team appointments. more on the story. this is bloomberg. ♪

annmarie: good morning. 6:53 in the city of london. with manus cranny in dubai. let's take a look at what is coming up this week. we have to watch for consumer trends, it's cyber monday, and opec and its allies are meeting virtually to discuss oil supply, looking like it will be a bit of drama after last nights's ritual chat, manus. manus: -- virtual chat, manus. manus: absolutely. they are mistaken. tuesday and wednesday, we will watch comments from steven mnuchin and jerome powell. when they testify on their responses to the pandemic, and on friday, get the very latest jobs report, and therein lies the point. that job is critical, isn't it? annmarie: especially for joe biden. we know he is sticking to his

word of a diverse administration as the senior communications team is all women. the communication director will be kate bedingfield. ashley will be calm's director for kamala harris. mms director for kamala harris. manus: a longtime democratic policy staffer, cecelia, will head the council of economic advisors, becoming the first black american in that role. there is a lot to get our heads around this week. i cannot remember -- there's something like 50 central banks that will have their decisions before the end of the year. 50. martin malone makes a great point. to get these record runs in equities, you have 20% thrown at global markets, 20% of gdp in terms of stimulus. will you get the same stimulus in 2021? that's my question. annmarie: it's a very good

question. for the united states, it depends on the runoff election in georgia and how much it could push. republicans and democrats are still billions of dollars apart and what they think but it's a very good question. with vaccines at the end, how much more are governments willing to do in terms of fiscal stimulus if they think the light as they are at the end of the there at the end of the tunnel? manus: the durability of growth into value. the biggest move since 2001. you are looking at china. it is the alpha. america is the lion's share of the inflows. $200 billion has gone in in terms of the flow of money into that market so a cracking start but let's keep an eye. -- are you logging in for the opec?conference on annmarie:annmarie: certainly. a little bit of drama. i thought it would be a boring meeting and a snooze fest now, there's drama involved. i will be logging in.

on thend -- on the end price of oil. anna up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends

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anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards in the city of london. the cash trade is just less than an hour away. stocks and future slide at the end of a record month as investors monitor progress towards a coronavirus vaccine. china offers a glimpse of hope with manufacturing data at a three year high. below 35 dollars after opec-plus representatives fail to agree on prolonging output cut