ministers fails to reach an agreement at the end of opec-plus meetings. recovery on track. china second at been on mac .edound gathers pace it comes as shares of cnooc slump on reports it could be added to a u.s. blacklist. and bone of contention. the u.k. foreign secretary, dominic raab, says there's a brexit deal to be done, potentially within days. but he says both sides must continue working in good faith on all important fishing rights. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." lisa abramowicz is stepping in for tom keene in new york. great to have you on surveillance this morning. we look at the markets. tomorrow is december 1, so we look at an increase -- a pretty incredible rally that we have seen so far. look at brexit and opec-plus back at the forefront. lisa: it is an agonizing time for people. i do hear that tom keene is still brining his turkey, so we

will try to fill in his space as he expresses his culinary abilities. francine: we will get clarification on what he is working on. let's get to the bloomberg first word news in new york city with ritika gupta. ritika: good morning. s&p global is on the verge of a giant deal in the financial information industry. bloomberg has learned that the company is in advanced talks to for $44s markets billion. an agreement could be announced as soon as today. it would be the second biggest deal of the year. president trump's coronavirus taskforces propping -- promising a rapid rollout of the vaccine to 2 million americans i the end of the year. the surgeon general expects that most americans will have access by early in the second quarter. he says the government hopes to quickly ok requests from two drugmakers for emergency

approval of their vaccines. a group of opec-plus ministers could reach an agreement on whether to delay january's oil a fullincrease, before meeting of the cartel and its allies today. bloomberg learned that the uae and kazakhstan opposed a proposal to maintain the current cuts. in the u.k., government officials believe a brexit deal could be done within days. they say the key is to work in good faith on what the u.k. sees as the last big optical, fishing rights. dominic raab called the e.u. to recognize that regaining control over british waters is a question of serenity for the u.k. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. the focus is firmly on oil, also on what's going on with the pound given brexit negotiations.

one day we are doing fine in brexit, the other, fishing, we cannot agree on who needs to fish what. today, a bit of optimism creeping in, usc sterling. it is the last day of the month with this record-breaking rally of global equity markets, oil extending on signs of discord on opec plus minister, and still in portuguese, 10 year yields watch. nearing zero. they still haven't touched zero. lisa: talking about the fisheries, it seems like everything is back-and-forth when it comes to brexit. with the s&p 500, it is not back-and-forth. you cannot keep a good market down. it is down just .4% after being down much more earlier after a record-breaking rally for financial, energy shares, for the month of november. skip over oil, i will say 10 year yields also initially were

falling, now rising just slightly, 0.84%. still notable that those yields have not increased in tandem with a rally that we have seen in equities. copper -- i wanted to point out that copper is at the highest level. since 2013, this is both on an inflationary but but also on a bet at the biden cabinet will put a greater emphasis on green technologies, which will increase investment in metals such as copper. francine: lisa, oil falling as opec-plus numbers failed to reach consensus. the discord raised tensions about a crucial meeting later today. joining us is javier blas. this seems like they are shooting themselves in the foot. if they don't have an agreement and then we have a big glut, a big surplus in the market. is it politics above common sense? absolutely right. opec is always risk -- it has

done a fantastic job on recovering the oil market, bringing a lot of volume out of the market. now they need to decide whether a production increase is scheduled for the first of january goes again or not. call witha conference the oil ministers, that ended without an agreement, but let's not forget that the real meeting happens today from 2:00 p.m., 1:00 p.m. london, 8:00 a.m. in new york. that is the real activity when diplomacy is going to happen. we have a single day of meetings on tuesday when all of the countries known in that group will become a part of that conversation. so there is a lot of fostering going into the meeting, but i expect that opec will come with a final agreement within the next 48 hours. francine: how will they find

this cohesion? will it be saudi arabia trying to pull all sides together? i know there are some splits in countries that are in the past allies. toier: probably it is going require a bit of opec diplomacy. we are not going to probably get the clean deal that the market was looking at only a week ago. there was a three month delay. it would be more complicated. different proposals delegate their reaction of the market, but it seems there is enough self-interest of everyone within opec. they know what the rate of value is because the pandemic has not ended, the vaccines have not yet there is a lot of lockdown. where there are usually open conferences. it is in lockdown.

they are restructuring a lot of activities around the hotels, especially ended today. there is a lot of self-interest to find some kind of compromise over the next 48 hours. lisa: where are the lines here? where are the alliances? who wants the opec cuts that have been proposed, and who is against them? javier: interestingly, in saudi arabia, the different counts through the year are very much aligned at this time, and that is why they think a deal will happen. you have the two most powerful members of the opec-plus alliance together in seeking a delay. the delay?iving kazakhstan,ve iraq, and you have the united arab emirates, although the uae is saying that is not its official position, although it is acting as a broken element.

so the saudis need to work on those three holdouts and try to convince them that the best outcome for everyone is for the delay. i would expect that will not lean heavily and kazakhstan to try to push them into an agreement, and i suppose that saudi arabia is working the phones and talking to iraqis, and abu dhabi come to make sure that they also supported deal. but the important thing is that and -- sicko to build on what you're saying, some headline -- lisa: to build on what you're saying, some headlines -- he has no plans to talk with the saudis ahead of the opec-plus meeting. however, he also said that the opec-plus differences now are less serious than in the spring, this coming from vladimir putin, the president of russia. the question going forward --

what is the market response? we are seeing oil prices decline on the lack of agreement ahead of the summit between opec-plus meetings and members. what do you expect if they do come to an output cut agreement? happens to the price of oil? if they delay the production increase, rather than increasing production on the first of january, the first of april, that is definitely bullish for the market. a lot of that was pricing. if the production happens as planned from the first of january, that is obviously -- we can go a few dollars down from current prices, from about $47 a barrel. goldman sachs has put a note to clients a few hours ago saying that potentially oil loses about five dollars if this meeting ends with no deal. but that will still keep oil above $40.

having that warning that you risk -- i think it will concentrate the minds of every opec minister to try to find some diplomacy and some kind of agreement. concentrated minds. always a good thing to focus on. javier bloss our chief energy correspondent. up next, we talk oil, inflation, pound. with the one capital head of research. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm lisa abramowicz filling in for tom keene. francine lacqua is in london. there is a question in december

after a record-breaking november, how do we reach an inflection point with the rotation encyclicals away from big tex? ?- from big tech joining us now is themos fiotakis, glenn point capital head of research. can you give us a sense of what you are seeing right now when you look at this incredible rotation, these records printed across the board globally on riskier assets on the heels of a number of positive vaccine developments? are you buying this rally, or do you think this is a head fake yet again? that theo, i think rally is very likely to extend, and for the very simple reason that the markets used to be based -- used to be bifurcated. you had companies that had enormous structural stories, growing really fast. the speculative tech companies, whether that is your mega caps like microsoft,

amazon, or the chinese equivalents like alibaba, etc.. on the other hand, you have cyclical assets reporting. most of the emerging markets come all the way to airlines, hotels, because of the coronavirus, or even banks come etc. have beenvaccine may more priced in some sectors than others, like banks, for instance, a vast majority of cyclical assets, this thing is still underpriced. we still can see airlines or atels or hospitality or number of cyclical sectors moving up 20% to 30%. when you have breaks in the market, you can build very diversified portfolios and accommodate inflows and the move can extend. on top of that, the fact that we think at glen point, in our estimates and our analysis, the

reopen is going to be quicker and more rapid than the market expects, then you are pretty much looking at the beginning of next year, the point where the economy will be accelerating really fast, and in these periods you cannot afford not to own risky assets. in particular i would say emerging markets are likely to wee performance of the likes have not seen in five or six years. we already have seen a pretty impressive scene for emerging markets. msci had its best month if you consider we will continue the rally. since march 2016 at the highest level since 2018 come how much higher could we potentially go? how much more is there to the emerging markets rally? we are not even scratching the surface. i would give you example. take a mainstream stock like

alibaba. you have years of revenue growth expansion, yet we are only -- we are not that much higher than 2017 levels where the trade war uncertainty started. and definitely we are lower than where the counterparties are, despite that this is a more profitable -- the company is facing a faster growing economy. so the risk is there. equities, bonds, credits in emerging markets. there is a big risk premium. we have seen five years of -- post five years of capital inflows drying up. capital inflows are coming back on come and you are seeing a structurally better set up. it is not just recovery from the coronavirus, which is ahead of us. it is also the fact that these guys are facing now a much more

regular conduct with the united seeing the transition of leadership. saysine: goldman sachs when we have a vaccine we will see pretty strong growth. what does that do to your inflation forecast and what does that do to monetary policy? themos: yes, i read that note. goldman has done a phenomenal job this year with forecasting. i thoroughly buy that view, and i think that they are being conservative because in our view, once you start vaccinating the more sensitive groups, you are probably going to be reopening a lot faster. and this pent-up demand -- i think that them trying to be ahead of consensus, they are being even a little bit conservative. what does it do to the inflation forecast? look, francine, you are going to have a basis that is going to be high.

what was set short-term with the opec meeting etc., it is more likely than not that oil in the middle or late part of next year thanbe $10 to $20 higher it is now. that would create a headline inflation balance sometime next year. however, i really, really don't see how core inflation is set to pick up in a meaningful way for a long period of time. and it is not just the slack in the economy, which needs to be reduced that is going to take some time. it is not just the fact that as opposed to now, a couple of years from now, you know, fiscal, monetary set up is not going to be necessarily as it has been so far, but it is also the composition of inflation and inflation drivers globally which makes it very hard to go to inflation levels much higher than we used to see in the been

part of the previous cycle. francine: once we see a bit of thattion, an inflation holds -- will the markets freak out? themos: that is a good question. i think that a lot of it will be depending on the fed. and this is a fed that has made a major mistake in their communication policy. from the time that chair powell was in charge to now. it means that their commitment is true. if you look at the forecast, they are going to have very low rates and very easy policy, well into this inflation rise that you're talking about. which in their forecast is also coming a lot faster than i think it is going to happen. i think the market is going to look through an inflation of if the inflation uptick

fed stays true to its word. lisa: we will find out possibly later this month when they do meet again to discuss monetary policy. thank you for joining us, to most ceeo talk us -- they most ceeo talk us -- themos fiotakis. longer duration bonds and their upcoming meeting in december -- numbing up in the next hour, carl weinberg, high-frequency economist --ef i i'm sure he will weigh in on what the fed should and would do. from new and london -- from new york and london, this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. there could be another takeover in what has been a record year for deals in the semiconductor industry. taiwan's global -- is in advanced talks to buy germany's new tronics for $45 billion. corner -- up 48% this this quarter for citroen next. china is overhauling rules that will govern the sin tech industry.

they in the early stages of changes. a completetemplating exit from retail banking in the u.s. it would be part of its restructuring aimed at boosting profits in the u.s. and europe. bloomberg has learned that recommendations are expected to be presented to hsbc as soon this week. the bank makes almost all of its profit in asia. that is your latest in bird. francine? lisa: thank you so much. we are looking at markets that are cooling a little bit after the record-breaking month and a lot of different indices. the s&p, to give you a sense, is down .4% now to 36.20. just to give you a sense, it is up more than 11% so far this month. i'm looking at crude, given the fact that we have the opec bus confab today. confab today.us

its -- adding to francine: i'm looking at european stocks pretty much steady, you saw that rotation, stocks at an all-time high showing slight reversal with technology company holding firm. thanks and energy producers broadly lower. you are right, it is all about opec-plus and pound. we could have a deal, but then one day we do and the next day we are more down. -- downbeat about the prospects of that. coming up, we talk about brexit, and this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. mime francine lacqua in london. lisa abramowicz is in new york. negotiators on the u.k. side

believe a deal can be reached in days, but fishing rights remain part of the discussion. the rutter, for international audience and people in the u.k. who are confused about what will be negotiated, are we looking at only a skinny deal, or could we have a more comprehensive deal between the u.k. and the e.u.? jill: it will be a comprehensive deal in terms of coverage. it is about trade, about , aviation, transport, other things in that. in that sense it would be quite wide-ranging, but in terms of what we used to call a deal with the e.u. that implies good market access to the e.u. in return for a lot of u.k. regulatory alignment with the e.u., that is something that big government has not been -- that this government has not been interested in. it says it wants the free trade deals that the e.u. has done with the more distant countries

like canada and japan. we are looking at the skinny end --the deal, but it might francine: what happens to finance? have a great story that is getting a bit of a bellows. you can read it on our website or the bloomberg terminal. a -- whats that happens to finance if a deal is unlikely? as part of the political declaration last year, it was agreed that both sides were trying to give equivalent decisions in the summer that did not happen. that was going to be a decision on whether u.k. firms could continue to passport into the e.u. and vice versa. the u.k. has made a decision on the e.u., the chancellor of the exchequer, treasury secretary, finance minister made his decision to give e.u. firms access a couple of weeks back

with the waiting on that decision from the e.u. it technically is separate from all these trade negotiations, but i think looking at the way in which the e.u. has downplayed in the past, would say that actually if there is no trade deal, the financial services equivalent decisions coming on a quicktime table. what the u.k. did want was to look and see whether a mechanism was saying that is a deeper corporation, and one of the things that people like that -- it can be unilaterally withdrawn with 30 days' notice. a great state for building businesses on the backdrop that the u.k. floated some ideas for much more cooperation, longer time period, but also we expect to see that in any sort of deal. lisa: francine knows this better than anyone -- people are leaving the u.k., people are leaving london.

big banks are shifting outside the operation -- outside the nation to be in operation with the e.u. do we have a sense of the financial hit to the united kingdom, and will be as a result of these shifts? know thatn't think we yet. at the moment there has been some that have moved and some assets moved, but it has not been enormous yet. one of the questions is does one of the e.u. capitals managed to build up, or is it a significant financial center over time? i think the key thing, you're quite right. we talk a lot about impact on different firms. i think these big financial services firms -- many of them started to move last year, when we kept on marching up the hill and down again about whether there would be a no deal exit last year. so i think a lot of them have moved already. they started to make -- moving some assets, some people so far. not as big a move yet, but to ensure that they are able to get

service there to their european customers. i think one of their interesting things is those firms -- they will continue, take a bit of extra cost, but they will manage to have continuity. the big loser is the british economy, both in terms of gdp but also the financial services sector. economy is atish big contributor to tax revenues. value-addinghigh tax sector. risknk that is a potential for the government down the line if a lot of that business transfers, a lot more than we have seen so far. lisa: and this comes at a complicated time given the pandemic and the financial requirements pushing the economy forward out of this hole. do you have a sense of how the brexit negotiations are being complicated or complicating the pandemic response basically,

these two massive issues hitting at the same time? jill: you said you would not want to start from here, that is partly the government decision because it had that option back in the summer, of seeking an extension. we might have been able to push negotiations into next year or even a year after, the option there of really quite a long extension with u.k. government -- if the u.k. government wanted it, but decided not to. it decided to stick with that. so we are managing simultaneously. there are some people in government that argue that there is a short-term disruption from brexit would be eased because there is less travel, less movement of things between here and the continental europe. the real problem is the budget responsibility, so the u.k.'s independent fiscal watchdog, independent fiscal forecast makes it clear in the report

that was published last year -- last week. youreal problem is that if like, covid, mixed in the non-services sector, hospitality, personal services, things like that, whereas brexit mixes in credited goods, and there is a perfect storm by doing the two together. drawing attention to that conjunction that in the longer run, a no deal brexit could be worse for the economy than covid. covid you would expect to come back. the chancellor of the exchequer chose not to mention that at all in his economic statement last week. whether: i don't know we were talking about fishing rights, but -- question, the bigger even if we had some kind of a deal, everything changes

paperwork on trading goods and things like that, coming into the country. our business is for it? what about the smaller businesses? the twothink dimensions, you're are absolutely right that the government -- i find it quite thatto get the message with deal or no deal, there is a vast amount of extra paperwork that every business that wants to continue doing business with europe will need to be ready to comply with from january 1. the big difference between deal go with no if we deal, the e.u. will charge on anything coming in from the u.k., and the u.k. will apply it on a tariff schedule. particularly heavy duty on agricultural goods and automotive. massive there is a increase in bureaucracy.

bigger firms i think are compliant insofar as they can be, but they give absolutely no detail, and that is particularly relevant, although not a big part of the economy, particular irrelevant from moving goods into northern ireland, where there are lots of things -- remember, we are getting that border in the irish sea, and a lot of details need to be thrashed out in the joint committee, which the minister in charge of that, michael gove, minister in our cabinet office, says will be settled during this week. but a lot of retailers are still asking, how are in earth are we going to move goods onto supermarket shelves in northern ireland? that will be complicated up to brexit -- after brexit. of small to medium-sized firms have said we have not got the bandwidth to do this. there are shortages of custom basis and things like that. francine: thank you so much. jill rutter.

that's get to bloomberg first word news with three to could go up to. ritika: it would take the biggest takeover this year. bloomberg has learned that s&p global is an advanced talks to buy ihs market. the price, 44 billion dollars. that would combine two of the biggest wall street providers. bloomberg learned that joe biden will name longtime democratic tendon toffer near a be his budget she. budget chief.- the president has named a senior communications team made up entirely of women, including white house press secretary. the third largest oil company in china reportedly will be named to a u.s. blacklist. cnooc is to reuters, among four companies to be added to a list of companies owned by

the chinese military. that could lead to major outflows if u.s. investors divest. iran is vowing not to fall into any future talks with the bite administration. after thens two days assassination of a top nuclear scientist. iran has blamed israel. joe biden has made it clear that the u.s. will rejoin the nuclear record if iran will comply. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm ritikauntries, gupta. this is bloomberg. much.ne: thank you so up next, we talk u.s. politics, we talk about, of course, the trump administration, the biden administration, and the transition. lukens. lew this is bloomberg. ♪

>> to encourage use of what previous pulses have put in place in order to respond to the tension that the economy was suffering at that point in time. so this coordination, fiscal and together that ash puts with the ron temple with the right temple and the right coordination actually helps a great deal. ♪

lisa: good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. over the weekend, president trump came out still talking about the fraudulent u.s. election, which has been debunked by many. conceding just a touch, talking about a biden administration. the question now is, what can president trump do in his remaining days in office to lock in the biden administration certain polity -- policies? , -- joining us now, lew lukens. let's start with over the weekend, blacklisting certain chinese companies from doing business with u.s. firms. what is your sense of how effective president trump is going to be to locking in biden, joe biden, to certain policies internationally? lew: good morning. he is running out of time to lock in the biden administration. with every day that goes by, he

has less time to cement his , heading to a biden administration. it is a most too late for any major regulations that have an economic impact. it has to be done at least 60 days before the change in administration, and where past that point. he can do some things on the edges, things like blacklisting chinese companies, but all that is relatively easy for joe biden to undo. it creates busywork that he probably doesn't want to deal with for a couple of weeks, but it is not on possible -- it is not impossible to do these things. lisa: getting a signal out of the biden administration, based on his cabinet picks that he publicized of the week -- do you have a sense of which policies he will continue in his administration? lew: i think he will continue to take a hard look at china, and i think where he really will shift andone is the environment

energy. president trump introduced a lot of executive orders early on to overturn the obama era environmental regulations. joe biden will move very quickly to undo the undoing of those. i think as far as the international stage, he has already committed to rejoining the paris climate agreement on day one, so that will happen quickly. day one,happen on but probably a month later. as you said in the previous segment, he will reach out to the iranians and restart , creating a new version of the iran nuclear deal. francine: in an interview over the weekend, president trump repeated these unfounded allegations of voter fraud. could it actually reach the supreme court? lew: i don't think so. he has not had much success in the courts so far, losing pretty

much every case. i think all the major states will have certified by this week, and then next week is the date by which all the states will formally submit their slate of electors, to the electoral college. december 15 is when the electoral college meets. what will happen is on december 15, the electoral college will vote for joe biden, and any hope of a legal challenge or political way around the result will be over for a president trump at that point. francine: what does it mean for the gop? when it looks at the legality of what has been supported so far, does that slowly change? do you see a shift? inis he their only chance 2020 for? lew: i think they are sticking with him for now because they are focused on the two senate runoff elections in georgia on january 5. they have been able to thread this needle of saying the

president has his rights to challenge the results legally and to go to court, but after the electoral college meets and formally votes for joe biden, there is still 2.5, three weeks until the georgia runoff. it will be much more difficult for the republican leadership at that point to continue to not acknowledge joe biden as the winner. but on the other hand, they need trump's based to be fired up and to come out in january so that they can maintain control of the senate. it will be a difficult balancing act, especially after december 15. francine: thank you so much, lew lukens. coming up in the next hour, we will talk about china and we will talk about the relationship between the u.s. and russia. that is at 6:30 a.m. in new york, 11:30 am in london, and this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. bloomberg has learned that

airbnb and doordash will companies areth starting their roadshows, billiong a range of $30 to $33 billion. claims $28 billion. both companies are looking to go public by the end of the year. j.p.morgan -- the largest cryptocurrency bitcoin fell last thursday lot long after nearing its highest level ever. j.p.morgan says the recent tumble cleared out -- the bank says momentum traders likely late a big role in that. andhead of hsbc's wealth personal banking unit, charlie nunn will replace antonio rosario, who is at the british bank, nexgen. executives working on a

strategic overhaul. that is latest bloomberg business flash. amro -- then company is targeting as much as 4.7 billion euros in cost cuts as it scales back its international presence. amro's cfo spoke with us earlier. >> that is a plan on rolls reduction through 2024, through four years, and it is a material amount can tribbett into the $700 billion in cost savings, but is roughly what we have executed over the past few years and will do steadily over time through natural route -- natural attrition, retaining our staff. considered,teady, and deliberate. >> good morning to you. steady, deliberate, and considered. which portions of the business will have the biggest job

losses? will it be the retail branch network, or on the corporate investment banking side? clifford: our cost savings and role reduction will be across the business. we have a small branch network in the netherlands, a little to bring thatect down steadily over time, so no figures there regarding branches. when announced that we would wind down our corporate bank outside europe earlier this year, and that is a part of that 15%. we are also digitizing a lot of the processes within the banks, and that will have an effect on rolls as well. we will be creating roles, as i indicated earlier, on growth segments that we see in our business. we will use technology to deliver banking daily services and increasingly we will apply

our people to helping our clients solve their financial problems. promised an update this morning on -- why is dividend unchanged? clifford: we have announced a payout ratio will be 50% of earnings. we have also indicated the level of capital that we are targeting. will consider buybacks when we are in excess of 15%. as you know, the ecb has a recommendation that banks in europe do not pay dividends right now, and we are clearly complying with that. but over time as that is listed and conditions improve, we want to give clarity on dividends and possible buybacks in our

approach to that. that is what we are doing today. that was abn amro's cfo. christine lagarde speaks at the policy center forum. she does a number of these webinars. she says europe must do better for job providing equity finance. she also says debt must stabilize at some point but not now. she continues of course talking about fiscal policy, saying it is critically important when services get hit. up next, a full round of brexit, the market, and u.s. politics. hope we can put in place. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends

are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? delegating? oh, good one.

move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. for me fades.you

a panel of the o's -- the opec's meetings. recovery on track. china second mnr agree pound -- china's economic rebound gathers pace with manufacturing pmi at a three-year high. shares in cnooc slump on reports it could be added to a u.s. blacklist. and bone of contention. the u.k. foreign secretary, dominic raab, says there's a brexit deal to be done, potentially within days. but he says both sides must continue working in good faith on all important fishing rights. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. lisa abramowicz is stepping in for tom keene, still troubling with the feast or not. a couple of days of well-deserved rest. the focus is on the markets. i cannot believe tomorrow is december. honestly, november such a superlatives month. you can just take a look at one record after the other. dow jones,