>> the nightmare scenario for markets would be if the unemployment rate were to begin to go higher. >> even before the pandemic, we had a lot of frailty. >> the continued weakness of the labor market is going to drag the whole economy down. >> you want it to be measured. >> we are still in a deep recession. >> it is time to get in big and spend big in order to restructure the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. abramowicz, lisa i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene still out of the building. more vaccine news. lisa: and perhaps too much turkey. to file for u.s. and eu clearance for vaccine approval for covid-19.

this is widely expected. this is the vaccine that was found to be 94.5% effective in the primary analysis. there is discussion about possibly having some sort of meeting later in the month with the fda to make the approval. we heard from officials over the weekend that they are going to try to approve it in fast order. if you take a look at markets, not the response you would think, at least not much. jonathan: it has been the diminishing marginal rate of the additional vaccine news in this market that has diminished over the last several weeks. equity futures down 0.4 percent. expectations are already so well anchored by the vaccine news we've had over the last several weeks. we are down 0.4% on the s&p 500. in the bond market, yields up by a basis point or two to 0.85% on the 10 year. the news isn't this morning. it is the cumulative impact of the last several weeks and now it is shaped the forward outlook

under a much better way compared to what we face right now in the here and now into year end. lisa: i do think it is significant in this announcement that the public meeting with the u.s. fda is being scheduled for december 17. i think this is interesting because perhaps we will get a better sense of the rollout, how quickly we could get vaccinated, how quickly we can stop wearing masks and move on with life. but i agree with you, this is baked in at this point. the question for a lot of people looking at markets after the wondernth, you have to what will give this another leg higher. how much good news is baked in? how much does reality have to catch up? jonathan: the rustle up a 20%, absolutely amazing. this vaccine has passed several trials over the last several months. looking at the equity market more broadly, it is monday morning, which means we have to catch up with sam fazeli of bloomberg intelligence.

do you like what you hear, how quickly we can get to that destination this market is already pricing in? sam: good morning, jonathan. the update moderna put out is not just about the fact that they are filing, but also that they've got a full analysis of 196 covert cases. the efficacy has come out at 94.5% which is pretty close to what we already saw at the interim analysis. this to me sounds great. they haven't told us what is going on with the elderly. they told us of the older people in the number of cases. what i can tell you is they are seeing no severe cases at all, so 100% efficacy against severe cases. that must mean that none of the older folk who are usually the ones who developed severe cases -- who developed severe cases have severe cases. lisa: you're seeing no reaction

whatsoever in markets. do we have a sense of what needs to happen for another leg of positive news? do you think we could bring forward the schedule of vaccinations to possibly january or february, or are we still looking at april or may before is a critical mass of people inoculated? the problem sam: will be coming to do that, you will need to companies to find ways of manufacturing more doses faster. that is possible, but i am pretty sure they are doing the absolute best they can to manufacture the maximum number of doses possible. then you have the logistics of, you've got the doses. you've got to convince people to come through the door to get vaccinated. i think what would probably start moving the needle next would be perhaps another company coming up with a positive result. that could be novavax from the u.k. trials, which has just completed recruitment. that should come in the next few

weeks, months. as we get news of the rollout actually happening, this many people have been vaccinated, etc. jonathan: sam, great to catch up on another monday morning with some better news. for our audience worldwide, if you are just tuning in, but -- tuning in, moderna requesting clearance for its vaccine as soon as today. let's pick up the conversation with michael shaoul, market portfoliot management manager. is there anything that could derail the optimism around a better outlook? michael: i don't think so, at least i hope not. having said that, i will say that markets are quite stretched at the end of november, particularly the cyclical trade. it has had a hell of a move. -- i've seen plenty of

decembers which have had a cky couple of weeks in them. the economy is really firing on all cylinders at this point in time. i think a vaccine would helpful, but i don't think it is necessary. ve had such aha for thesenth equities. upgrade eurozone to overweight, with a potential bounce in relative earnings on the cards." that is just a flavor of what we've heard so much over the last several weeks around the international story. is it something you buy into, too? analysis doesnk

often follow performance. there's so much market cap tra pped in the stocks that had been working that any kind of reallocation away from that towards almost anything else is going to have an explosive impact. we would favor japan over the euro zone. i like what is in the nikkei. i liked that part of the world in general. i think that you had four or five years of tremendous outperformance by u.s. tech against global equities, and i think you've unlocked a little bit of a rebound. the tricky thing going forward is if this is a true turning point, you look back in five years and say that really was something, that normally implies a problem in the stock that has been working. certainly that was the case at the end of the late 1990's, certainly the case with em. finished outperforming in 2011, so i think the tricky thing

is if this021 outperformance continues, does that involve u.s. tech or the popular portions of the u.s. equity market going down? lisa: there's also a question of whether the pandemic still matters. does it? michael: it depends. it matters tremendously for urban service economies. it doesn't matter a great deal, and may even be having a strange beneficial effect come for the durable goods economy. think a slightly different question would be if we do have a successful vaccine and we arrive in the summer of 2021 in a better place medically and socially, does that come at the expense of the durable goods economy? ignited a just self-perpetuating cycle in that part of the global economy? lisa: at what point do you take a message from the bond market

that really hasn't participated in the rally? the idea that treasury yields have remained so suppressed despite the optimism we have seen everywhere else. take a: i think i would partial message from that. i do think that guidance has something to play, and i think that fixed income is something of a relative value play. think that if the cyclical forces do continue, you will have higher u.s. treasury yields. the u.s. ten-year will find its or 1.7 5% next year, which would hardly be a shocking level historically. jonathan: weaker dollar started to come through. the dollar in the sand for so many of you is $1.20. we know that is the line in the sand for ecb because whenever we got to euro-dollar at $1.20, philip lane came out and backed

it back down again. , thealls are lining up consensus view for 2021 is weaker dollar. is that the side of the trade you are on, too? michael: weaker against the cyclically sensitive currencies. i think em currencies can gain a lot against it. jonathan: michael shaoul of market field asset management, ceo and portfolio manager, thank you. we know what happened last time euro-dollar got near $1.20. do we see a repeat of that and start to get near that level again? lisa: you have to wonder at what point people care about the data. i know i am going to be debbie downer, but we are not out of the woods when it comes to the virus. is the point sluggishness going to weigh on the euro, especially if you see something different in the u.s.? jonathan: you can't argue with the data. claims last week, not great.

. the week before, not great. no one thinks it is going to get better anytime soon. the question you've got to ask, what would derail expectations for 2021 when we have had such encouraging vaccine news over the last month. and quite clearly, as we've experienced, two claims data prints isn't getting it done. lisa: and when people talk about scarring, especially some of the bigger companies taking this time to retrench, that is going to have longer lasting implications. i will say, michael dart a came out vehemently against the bears , saying they are going to use the sagging data to edify this narrative, but really the recovery is intact, and will continue to be, based on the savings rate, the stimulus, and the strength we have seen. jonathan: did it feel personal when you got that email? lisa: 1000%, yes. [laughter] jonathan: have you heard from mr. keene at all? lisa: i have not.

he is in a turkey,. jonathan: neither have i -- in a turkey coma. jonathan: neither have i. he's making cooking videos. i've had the tom keene breakfast before, and i can tell you if you go out for breakfast, you better hope that mrs. keene is cooking and not mr. keene. tom keene is back on wednesday. it might be tomorrow. who knows? he just turns up whenever he wants to. on the s&p 500, we are softer by 0.3%. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is the second biggest takeover this year. s&p global has agreed to buy ihs market for $39 billion in stock. current stockholders will earn a

.6 -- earne than 0 of thee more than 0.6% stock. modern is on track to have one of the first vaccines approved in the u.s. a group of up plus ministers couldn't reach an agreement -- of opec+ ministers could not on output cuts before a full meeting of the cartel. the uae and kazakhstan opposed a proposal to maintain the current cuts. online shoppers in the u.s. are expected to spend a record breaking $12.7 billion. . on cyber monday it is the busiest e-commerce day of the year. retailers such as amazon, walmart, and best buy have been preparing for months. this will be the ultimate test

for their new delivery capacity. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there is light at the end of the tunnel because we will really be seeing vaccines soon. we likely, almost certainly, are

going to be vaccinating a portion of individuals in the first priority before the end of december. jonathan: that is the good news from tony fauci, the national institute of infectious diseases director. from new york city this morning, and the city, "bloomberg surveillance -- and the city of london, "bloomberg surveillance ." in the fx market, give "bloomberg surveillance "bloomberg surveillance -- in the fx market, we get closer to -- in the bond market, yields up by two basis points to 0.8586%. where were yields when we started the month? pretty much exactly where they are right now. lisa: which is frankly, to me, the story of the month. i know this is, again, debbie downer. jonathan: it's what people

expect. it's what they miss. [laughter] happy to have you back. carry-on. lisa: i am just wondering why are bonds not confirming the optimism we are seeing in stocks. are they not confirming the reflationary trade, or is this confidence that they are going to accelerate their bond purchases? i don't know that the story is consistent. jonathan: i've spoken to a lot of people who think it is the latter, but we will find out. 's kevinus now from d.c. cirilli, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. just how quickly can we get these things approved down in washington? kevin: it is going to be fast and furious. the speed of this is just as interesting as whether or not democrats are going to be supportive of this. i am going to be paying careful attention to what is elect joe biden's transition team has to say this week about the vaccination front. we should note that the communication between the outgoing and incoming

administration finally beginning in earnest, and of course, there have been transition briefings on operation warp speed, on the issues of the vaccination front as well, despite the politics that have surrounded the issue all around. lisa: there also is today the first intelligence briefing for joe biden and kamala harris. how important is that? kevin: massively important. some extent, it is really what the conversation surrounding these intelligence and national security briefings. i can recall when senator lindsey graham, republican from south carolina, weeks ago called on president trump to make sure those transitions were going forward. you look at the development in the last 72 hours with iran, you look at the questions that have been coming up with whether or not north korea is going to be looking to test missiles as they frequently do anytime there is a changing of administrations, and this is crucial to national security. jonathan: what i think we have touched on is really important.

i want to get your view on where the administration is taking things. there's still a couple of months left in this administration. they have objectives in the middle east. what are the objectives, and do you expect them to look at achieving them in the several weeks they have left? kevin: first and foremost, the american objective is to make sure that iran does not maintain -- does not obtain a nuclear weapon. that unites democrats as well as republicans. secondly, the mechanism in which to achieve that is very different from both political parties. the trump administration had withdrawn from the iran nuclear disarmament deal, arguing it was a disaster for the region, as well as a disaster for america's ally in israel. ,he incoming administration with these intelligence briefings, is really going to have to assess the new geopolitics of the region. tony blinken's middle east is going to be much different than the middle east of former secretary of state hillary

clinton and the obama administration. that is where things like renegotiating the iran nuclear disarmament deal get more different. the president, for his part, just to go back to the first part of your question, he has been tweeting still about iran. he celebrated the killing of the nuclear scientist, the fifth nuclear scientist to be killed in iran dating back to 2010. jonathan: just a word on tony blinken, if you can. when we got the announcement of who would be going where in this cabinet, a lot of people said it was down the middle. confirmation would be very straight forward. things changed over the weekend. kevin: i think the 2024 race is up and running for the republican primary, similarly to how progressives and democrats like vice president-elect kamala harris and senator elizabeth warren at the time came out and opposed every single nomination that then president-elect trump had been naming there is it --

had been naming during his transition process. upon my reporting, antony incredibly well-respected respected in senior circles in washington, d.c. i do not perceive that he will confirmed, to get based on the conversation i'm having. -- based on the conversations i am having. lisa: is the legal conversation for president trump happening at this point? kevin: it is still a conversation in certain conservative circles, but i don't hear about it when i talk to staff. lisa: let's put it another way. is the legal team now rudy giuliani? kevin: yes. [laughter] i will keep it very simple, yes. lisa: president trump's acknowledgment that he is unlikely to get this to the supreme court is basically the death of this legal team. kevin: exactly. i don't mean to laugh off the question because it is incredibly important, but even when this is going on, in the days after the election i was talking to staffers, as well as

campaign staffers on the republican side who were really scratching their head. some of them didn't know the strategy was. i do want to notice that republicans, especially 2020 four circle republicans, are trying to ash especially 2024 -- especially 2024 circle republicans, are trying to plan this out, how states should be called and election security. democrats are saying you had an opportunity to look at this when there is a five -- when there was a bipartisan vehicle led by amy klobuchar to bolster election security. i remember talking about election security, as well as mail-in ballots, but this is something that was discussed months ago, and in fact, other republicans are wondering why the republicans and the president didn't embrace mail-in ballots in some of these battleground states last spring when this issue was first raised. jonathan: just to end things here, this is the key distinction. this is not about security. this is about counting them, and

how you come the boats. you've got to get everyone to agree on how to count the ballots. kevin: in may ways, the patchwork of regulation around the country is by design from a security perspective. it is a lot harder and more difficult to penetrate and infiltrate an election system when there is a patchwork around the country then it is to just take out one universal system. on the one hand, the conversation is a bit more nuanced because of that. toathan: kevin, always good catch up. kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. plenty of news coming through this morning. we got the news around a vaccine this monday morning. expected to request clearance for its covid next scene -- its covid vaccine in the u.s. and europe as soon as today. we heard from the u.s. surgeon general, saying he would promise rapid review of these kinds of applications, so how quickly will we hear back? lisa: and how quickly will we actually get the vaccine this trip did?

when do you expect to get the -- vaccine distributed? when do you expect to get the vaccine? jonathan: me personally? i expect that people in my group could be the middle of next year. lisa: that is my sense as well. jonathan: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends

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♪ jonathan: from london and new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on bloomberg tv and radio. a bit defensive after a massive month. on the session, futures -0.2% on this b5 hundred. -- on the s&p 500. the nasdaq up about 0.3%. the russell down about 0.5%. on the month, the russell up to 20%. what a month of gains for the small caps in america. switch of the board. as we get the vaccine news to come through and really anchor expectations for 2021, a lot of people talk about the value trade, the sickle clade -- the cyclical trade come of international versus u.s. trade. up almost 15%.0, that is the best monthly gain almost on record.

keep an eye on that as we go into the close today. 15%, thekkei in japan, best month since 1994. jp morgan adding to the list this morning, saying this is where they expect the gains to be in 2021. overweight europe on the stoxx 600, and going neutral on the united states for 2021 on the better outlook, this idea that we get the cyclical rebound. you see it in the commodity market. they expect more of the same in international equities as well. lisa: we've gotten this head fake many times for. the question is how much this can actually stick going forward, given the fact that we are still in the pandemic. that is the issue, right? we are not out of the woods. jonathan: this is about better or worse, and most people assumed that as the months go on, the outlook looks better, not worse. that all comes down to the price

of the story. the price of the story is getting more expensive over the last several weeks. the story that we will hear again and again is the valuation gap between europe and the united states is still attractive, and there are still legs here for 2021. that is the consensus view, and we have seen the consensus view wrong before. as kit juckes of socgen pointed out, it is important to remove her that sometimes the consensus view is right, and when using about the last time we had global synchronized growth was going into 2017. i feel like for many people, it is also that moment again in the fx market, which is why we have seen people lining up to get behind that dollar weakness story. lisa: i am smiley right now because i am thinking about tom keene and how he is probably contemplating his all-cash right now, as with get out the price of the story and where we go from here. the price of the story in the oil market right now is a little conflicted after an amazing month of gains for the crude industry. we have the opec+ meeting for

today and tomorrow to agree on possible production cuts. the question is increasing production. julian lee joining us now. there does not seem to be an agreement. what is the sticking point? julian: the sticking point really is whether they extend the deep cuts they have made so of 2021,the first part or whether they start to ease those cuts as was originally planned in the deal they struck back in april. week asooked last though it was going to be a straightforward decision between do they extend the cuts or do they let them ease as they are supposed to, and if they extend them, would that be for one quarter? would it be for two?

would it be somewhere in between, or may be the first month or two? things got a little complicated over the weekend, when the saudis and the russians called an unexpected meeting of the ministers from what is called the joint ministerial monitoring committee, a subgroup that sort of oversees the deal, and they came away from that with no real agreement on how they should proceed, and some countries seeming to dig their heels in over whether others have complied fully or not with what they said they would do so far. the whole thing is starting to look a little bit more complicated, and that is part of the reason that prices have come off little bit. jonathan: it always comes down to the saudis at the end of the day, and russia as well. what do they want ultimately, and will they get it? guest: ultimately i think what they want is to delay the easing

of the cuts. the saudis had been suggesting that they delay it for a quarter , from the start of january to the start of april. i am not sure they are going to get that in full. there's lots of talk about finding a consensus, and people having to shift their position a bit. ideas are beginning to emerge on may be a shorter extension of the current cuts, or may be more gradual relaxation of them rather than adding back the total of nearly 2 million barrels a day, rather than adding that in one go, perhaps adding it in stages. sent from someal countries -- real dissent from some countries, the united arab emirates in particular, who were chastised for overproducing in the summer. they have made up on that overproduction by deeper cuts, but other countries haven't.

they are arguing that they shouldn't extend the cuts until everybody has made up for their past cheating. jonathan: always great to get your view on things. julian lee, thank you. we have seen the best and worst of policymaking worldwide this year. andep reflecting on spring what saudi arabia and russia got up to, and that has got to go down as one of the worst policy decisions of this year. out of everything we have seen, that is up there. lisa: just a reminder for people who don't remember, that is when futures went negative on oil prices. so you've got to think they are not going to do a repeat of that. there is a question i keep thinking about. how has the decline of u.s. shale production affected the dynamic? does opec+ actually emerge from this ironically with more power, despite the fact that they made that catastrophic error in spring? $47.62.: brent crude,

joining us now is bnp paribas' head of commodity strategy. always good to get you on the show. again?sorry, come jonathan: your read on opec+ right now. what is it? guest: listening to julian's comments, there are a number of issues ahead of this meeting, but we at be a bear. believe they would -- but we at bnp paribas deliver they will -- we at bnp paribas believe they will deliver three months of cuts, and it gives flex ability to reassess options in q2. as usual, there will be debate, but given what we heard from opec and saudi in particular, i think it is time for opec+ to be proactive and adjust to market circumstances. jonathan: given how powerful the forces are ahead of 2021, how important is this agreement as far as your outlook for next year is concerned?

ofry: opec+ is facing a bit a dichotomy when it comes to oil demand, and particular in china, , increasing demand in korea. in the west, u.s., europe, demand is stuttering. i think what opec needs to do is get over the q1 hurdle in terms of demand weakness in western oecd economies, and that takes us over to q2 which we start having wider distribution of a covid vaccine, and onwards i think they could progressively begin to increase production again. so it is getting over that q1 hurdle that is going to be important for the market, and after that reassess at the next ministerial meeting in 20 when he won. lisa: i remember -- in 2021. lisa: i remember when we were talking about u.s. shale production, and that was the swing factor when it comes to

oil prices, and that opec+ was losing power. has that dynamic changed completely based on the decline in shale we have seen this year? harry: i don't think it has changed completely. it has certainly just postponed. in that sense, it is going to take some time before the u.s. shale patch decides to spend more money in new rigs and get the production backup. we are going to need oil prices, especially in wti, to end up somewhere around $55 per barrel. if you were to believe the dallas fed survey when it comes to win companies would significantly increase drilling, after that it means the rebound in u.s. crude production coming from shale at the earliest is 2021. impact shale is not an on opec for the remainder of this year and 22 anyone. -- this year in 2021.

until 2022.ned lisa: i want to build on this idea that we have to get to $55 a barrel. what has to happen for us to get up $10 a barrel, up more than where we are today given the fact that we don't expect international travel to take off in the very near term, and given the fact that we do see such an uneven recovery? harry: i guess the first thing to remember is that we are talking about oil futures, and oil futures move faster and ahead of the fundamentals and ahead of the fundamentals in the real economy. so when we get that vaccine approval and when we start getting widespread distribution sometime in q2, we are going to see readjustment of expectations around the timing of economic recovery, so the market will look past the weakness in q1 to the recovery in the second half of the year, and prices will reset accordingly. second, of course, opec has two continuous efforts. it's efforts -- has to continue its efforts. it's efforts are paying off, and it has to continue delivering

those cuts to avoid those inventory builds and pursue a rebalancing of the market and draining those excess inventories we built up at the beginning of this year. jonathan: always great to catch up. rry, thank you. opec+ decision just around the corner. crude on the month absolutely flying. energy equities up by 34% on the s&p 500. energy stocks with a bid. crude up by about 26%. in credit, ccc spreads have tightened 200 basis points through november. i imagine energy is a key part of that story. lisa: i have to wonder what this is baking in. in terms of international travel, you know more than anyone, the international corridor hasn't really been opened. they are trying to make inroads there, but we are not the cearley going to see business travel come back in any but we are not--

clearly going to see business travel come back in any meaningful way anytime soon. jonathan: if you are in an industry that was struggling before covid, i imagine you will be struggling after covid, too. this is just a relative game of things getting better relative to two months ago. they look better into next year off the back of this vaccine news. alongside lisa abramowicz this morning, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene on sabbatical. [laughter] lisa: nice. jonathan: i get to say that. that's my come back. , -1%.s down six this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. two of wall street's biggest data providers are joining together. s&p global has agreed to buy ihs market for about $39 billion in stock, the second-biggest deal of the year.

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,> in the run-up to christmas andumer spending increases,

coming into next year, i think the prospect of the vaccine brings us into what promises to be a pretty strong the 21, at 21,t from -- strong to pick at least from an advertising one,ective -- strong 2020 at least from an advertising perspective. jonathan: monetary policy decision are going out of their way say we won't get in the way for the next year or two, and i think fiscal policy makers arguably need to thing about doing the same. you cannot hang out the prospect of tax rises to come in 2021, 2022, 2023. don't even talk about it. keep the consumer confident without having to think about saving money because they're worried about taxes going up. for me, that is something on the policy side that needs addressing. it has been a failure here in

the u.k. from chancellor sunak. lisa: i do wonder from a markets perspective, let's say they throw money at the problem. let's say. . you see incredible growth. . let's say in consumers asked let's say you see in cripple growth -- let's say you see incredible growth. let's say consumers have money. what effect does that have if you start to see inflation creep higher? jonathan: lisa abramowicz not happy when yields go down. lisa abramowicz not happy if yields go up. [laughter] are you going to be in 32021 -- be an through 2021? lisa: tom didn't come in because he had to sit this one out. jonathan: i'm sure it had more to do with a bottle and a lot less to do with inflation. joining us now, bank of

america's senior retail analyst. are we shopping less, or just shopping somewhere else? >> i think where people are shopping has certainly changed. there's been this shift to online, and i thing some of that has been intentional on the part of the retailers. what we have seen this holiday season is an early start to promotional activity, which began as early as november 1 for a lot of retailers. promotet has been to these online channels, partly for health and safety reasons to avoid overcrowding in the stores, but also because the retailers have been seeing demand moving that direction, so they are not trying to fight against it. what we have seen a lot of this holiday season in particular, which was relatively new, was the move towards promoting curbside pickup and buy online, pick up in-store, which is beneficial to the consumer because they get the product sooner than they would if they

option,the ship to home and they avoid having to spend the cost of shipping that product to the consumer, so it is a win-win situation. but in general, we have seen a shift in spending also. this is longer-term, which has been towards home categories, away from things like travel and restaurants and entertainment, so those dollars have been shifted into the home, so we think this holiday season is really going to be about these home categories. jonathan: that takes us to home depot, which has had a fantastic year through 2020. for many people, the vaccine is kryptonite. i wonder what it means for the chopping trends -- for the shopping trends that have been reinforced. what are your thoughts on that? liz: for home improvement retailers like home depot,

lowe's, there has been a big benefit from people staying at home and investing in their homes, making those upgrades, doing the projects they put off for a while. but as we look beyond this year and into 2020 one, even post vaccine, one of the big factors we think is going to be a driver for next year is the fact that people have moved from urban markets into suburban markets. housing metrics are on fire. what that means is there is this whole new slew of homeowners that become consumers and become home improvement customers for life, essentially. for the next few years, that will continue to be of benefit. even though these retailers are up against this difficult comparison in 2021, there are longer-term tailwinds at play here, which are really those housing metrics that continue to trend positively. lisa: i do have to wonder, a lot of people have been home a lot. they can't go on vacation. they are spending their money on the place where they stay. when they can go on vacation,

when they can leave their homes, they will. ever when i talk to, especially if they have small kids come up to get out. how does that challenge the thesis you just presented? liz: i think there will be eventually a return, or may be pent-up demand for getting out of the house. at some point people will go back to travel. i think it will take time because comfort won't be immediate once there is a vaccine. it will take several months or quarters until people really feel comfortable traveling as they normally would. so for at least the next probably the majority of 2021, there is still going to be this continued time spent in the home and focus on the home, but after that, there is probably going to be some period of payback, or certainly deceleration. the speed of that will be contended upon the speed at which vaccines are distributed. risk that growth

will decelerate. i don't get as possible to continue with this 15% to 30% year-over-year growth phase, but i also don't think that is what is priced into the stocks. these are trading at pretty modest multiples relative to their historical rates, so they are not trading at companies that will continue to put up 20% to 30% growth year-over-year. jonathan: before we let you go, we talk a lot about companies, retailers pushing people to go to e-commerce. can you walk me through whether bed, bath & beyond have sorted things out for when things finally reopen properly to get a better experience? it is overwhelming and there. there's too much stuff. are they doing something about it? liz: i agree. the new ceo was the chief merchant at target, so the experience he brings to that role is certainly what the company needed. theink you are right,

floor-to-ceiling stuff, pillows you can't even reach up on the highest possible shelf, it is overwhelming. i think they are changing the merchandising in a pretty big way, and that is going to be a really big part of the turnaround story there. jonathan: liz, great to catch up. good to see you. liz suzuki of bank of america securities, thank you. lisa, the last thing i need is more choice. [laughter] pillows to the sky. just give me one so i can go in and walk out of there with it. lisa: you might be in the minority, at least in the united states. there aren't that made people who don't. as a parent, it is a fantastic activity to bring your child. jonathan: how much is a kid spending in there? are you taking kids on a field day to bed, bath & beyond? lisa: it is an experience. you want a decisive experience, but the idea of choice, of exploration. jonathan: go in with an injective. execute -- with an objective. exit cute -- exit cute.

get in, get out. from london and new york this morning, good morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> the nightmare scenario for markets would be if the un-limit rate were to begin to go higher -- the unemployment rate were to begin to go higher. >> even before the pandemic, we had a lot of frailty. measured.t it to be >> we are still in a deep recession. >> it is time to get in big end spend big in order to restructure the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. good morning to you all. this is "bloomberg surveillance ,"