♪ francine: the group delays not until thursday after ministers set to reconvene. after arguments with board members over strategy. the bank searches for its successor. and credit suisse's new chairman. looking for its next german outside the establishment. good morning, everyone. i'm francine lacqua in london. it is december, so happy

december. it is crazy we already in december. a lot of jokes saying december, but of what year? the markets had a good month of november so we will see exactly what. we are getting some data. euro area november manufacturing at 53.8. the important figure was 53.6. pretty much stable. the focus is from what the markets are doing. a soft bounceback. you look at u.s. futures, up. i'm looking at bitcoin, trading at a record. i wanted to make sure we are hitting that as well. bitcoin trading near a record. day onling for a third the production policy after a meeting broke down without an agreement. two main stories out there. waiting for them for ages. heedit suisse proposing as t next chairman.

we will look at what that company is doing. credit suisse premature unchanged, but unicredit will not seek a second term. down quite a lot. down from 5.7%. yesterday come already down 5% on rumors he would step down. let's go to the bloomberg first word news freedom leigh-ann gerrans. yellen has been chosen as secretary of the treasury. she was rather excited to get the top economic job and confirms he will be the first woman in the role. yellen tweeted the country faces its great challenges and must restore the american dream. opec is delaying talks for two days to get ministers more time to reach a deal. that is after a long and tense meeting on oil production broke down without an agreement. the nations are discussing whether to increase duction in january or maintain the cuts to halt the rally.

china's economic offensive against australia could end up backfiring a minute ongoing spat. beijing has ramped up tariffs against a variety of australian products. it is a warning to countries not to criticize beijing but china's moves are adding to concerns about economic coercioand may end up putting nations closer to the u.s. dayal news 24 hours a powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you. the prospects of a court of rx vaccine have stocks rising in november. shares surged 20% yesterday after the company says it has plans to ask for emergency or approval. ofit will be a typical kind flu vaccination, just at a scale

that's never happened in the world and the terms of the number of people to be vaccinated at the same time. it is like a regular shot. francine: the fed chair jay powell welcomed the vaccine news but warns the u.s. economy remains in a damaged and uncertain state. joining us now is the cohead of global foreign exchange interest rates and global market strategy at goldman sachs international. thank you for joining us. goldman sachs is a month one of the most positive on what the vaccine does for the world economy. are we finally going to see inflation when 50% of the population are vaccinated? >> good morning, francine. yes, we are very positive on a vaccine lead recovery in the global economy. i think that is despite the rally that we already had peter it has been in november to remember for global markets. lots of economies in the world are still substantially below the levels they were

pre-pandemic with the exception of china. inexpect a strong bounceback the global recovery. along with that, you will see some price pressure come in, especially around the turn of the first quarter and second quarter because you had some point andects at that commodity price increases. on the whole, volatility and upward pressure, you don't really expect to see the kind of output gap tightness driven inflation that would worry central banks in a big way to come through in 2021 created 2021 might be too early for that. one wrinkle to that argument is we still have to see what happens in the senate were enough elections in georgia in the early part of january. in the off-chance democrats managed to win both of those, some of the production markets are expecting and they do control the senate and the

changes of a much bigger fiscal stimulus in the market then went we are factoring and comes back onto the table and then you can start to see potentially the more longer-lasting increase in inflation out there as well. for now, think volatility, yes. really theexpecting kind of inflation that would worry and prompt central banks into tightening action. francine: let's say there is not the stimulus action that could spur inflation. how deep can the recovery be and how broad can this recovery be just on the current stimulus we have now? central bank policy saying as it is but the vaccine coming in place in the beginning of 2021. its think the vaccine and efficacy is several times more important than the current juncture that the stimulus itself.

large parts of the economy, even in parts of the world you have positive recovery in manufacturing, recovery and some of those sectors, you still have substantial capacity output gaps in sectors that require a lot of face-to-face interaction. that is the kind of area you could see a very rapid bounceback if a safe and effective vaccine starts to get rolled out. and smalleronfident sailed lockdowns. we are confident you could see a deep and broad recovery as the vaccine gets rolled out. sectors out across the that have been left behind on account of the coronavirus, servicesy like the sectors that require face-to-face interaction paid my have been bullish on the outcome from a vaccine standpoint. francine: what does it mean for

the dollar? amakshya: i think it is fairly typical recipe for dollar downtrends to extend. the dollar started out this episode pretty overvalued. 20% over the valley that the peak of the coronavirus in march and april. it is about 10% overvalued peter the fed has cut rates quite substantially. five-year real rates to go down to something close to -2%. still further downside as inflation picks up. expectportantly, we global recovery. typically when you see that type of global growth, you tend to see a lot of the flows that have come into say phase in assets. it tends to reverse and go into riskier places like the more commodity driven currencies, emerging markets more broadly.

we do expect on the back of all of that the dollar to weekend by .oughly 5% to 6% francine: thank you so much. he stays with us and we'll talk about a lot more commodities and emerging markets. coming up, growing concern. oil stalls as opec-plus seeks to reach a deal on production policy. we discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i would say not just citi, but the banking industry had a good relationship with her. into, orhe is elected

if she is voted into the seat, i think she will do a great job and i would expect that relationship to continue. glassso shout out another ceiling broken in terms of her then becoming the first female secretary of treasury, which would be another great one for the books. francine: that was the citi chief executive. we will bring you more of that interview through the day. let's dig deeper into the oil market. opec-plus is seeking more time to reach a deal on production policy after talks about up without agreement. ministers will meet on thursdays to allow more time to deliberate on whether to delay a planned increase on output. still with us is kamakshya. we were talking about this broad recovery. we mentioned the commodity prices. more and more, copper is a good barometer of what is going well. is oil still a good barometer because of climate change or renewable energy talk?

kamakshya: i think that is a fair point. there are some structural reasons why energy has been a bit of a lagging asset class. i think if you look at the coming few months and for the coming year, i think you will see oil also participate in if global demand recovers in the way we are expecting. i think it is probably fair to say the recovery in china and parts of asia has been further ahead than europe and north america. copper is typically much more levered to demand coming out of china. i think the very sharp rise reflects the kind of significant recovery in china. place that probably got up to pre-pandemic levels of activity and expects a strong year. as the year progresses, however, and has how demand picks up, particularly transformation demand, we would expect oil

prices to move higher as well. the opec talks that are going on are important near-term issues as isdle, to get past, the resurgence of covid cases. that near-term issue to deal with. if we are right about the vaccine that recovery, i think,e especially as we get to the second half of 2021, oil prices where participate in that as well. francine: i think you were expecting emerging markets broadly to outperform some of the other markets. is there anything that looks particularly attractive right now? kamakshya: when we think about our global outlook, we expect china, as i mentioned, to be one of the strongest forces in the race. we expect commodity prices to do well. it is a good environment for cyclical assets and value as well. if you ask yourself, which asset class embeds all of those's

cyclicality values? china, commodities. emerging markets stand out. they stand out from a point where positioning has been pretty light. it has gone up in the last couple of weeks, but over the last couple of years, it has been an under owned asset class. the attitude of the u.s. administration to global trade might be shifting in a morgue friendly direction. you want to on those deep cyclical assets. those of the real opportunity performances. includes high-yielding em fx. the indian rupee. high-yield indian credit which has underperformed so far in this rally, both relative to dm credit bit more relatively disparate assets. cyclical stocks in general. industrial emerging-market banks have been a big lagging sector. we like these exposures and emerging-market. we think there is real opportunity here for cyclicality

value, china and commodities to come together. you can see outperform is across the asset class. francine: is there anything in the emerging-market space that is idiosyncratic, that makes you worry that you don't want to play in 2021? kamakshya: i think emerging markets always have idiosyncratic issues. turkey is very much in that group. you have seen some more orthodox steps recently. perhaps there is some stability after a long period of underperformance. expect perhaps some currency adjustment in nigeria. i think there are always these places you have to be concerned about. the level of debt distress, especially if there is renewed growth collapse. some parts of sub-saharan africa could be vulnerable. that is always there.

one has to be careful about those situations. what i would flag is there is a right tail possibility apart from the left tail possibility that there has always been. i think people should not forget about that when thinking about their targets and the extent of the outperformance that could occur, especially after the strong run we have had. francine: is there anything to do with coiled at the moment -- gold at the moment? is that something you look at or is it overbought? kamakshya: there is a case for gold. that case -- safe haven and protection. we are seeing this rally in risky assets, that has eroded the shine of gold. there's also the case of gold to come from the demand-side which is largely the emerging-market side. that has been extremely subdued. once again, as we see this

broadening and deepening recovery in the emerging markets, typically the recovery has been backloaded depending on when they get the vaccine rollout which is likely to be somewhere down the line. i think some of that demand may reemerge further out. francine: thank you so much for joining us today. cohead of global foreign-exchange, interest rates and emerging-market strategy research at goldman sachs international. next, the unicredit ceo steps down. credit suisse announces a new chairman. a roundup of the banking stories of the day. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. changes at the top and banking. the unicredit chief executive is stepping down after four years after clashes of the board with strategy. meanwhile, credit suisse is proposing its next year with the outgoing chief executive. -- shareholders will vote on the nomination in april. possibility of private ownership after the financial crisis. joining us to talk about both these stories -- covers banks for bloomberg opinion. thank you for making the time to

come on tv. first of all, when you look at unicredit, and there were rumors that the board was looking for a replacement or he was looking to leave. the fact that the share price yesterday was down 5%, again down five or 2%, are shareholders worried about what -- 5.2%, are shareholders worried about what is to come? >> absolutely. i think we are seeing a reaction of two things. one, the departure of an executive. clearly, four years he was there , although some of his decisions may not have been what everyone would have liked to see peter unicredit sold some of its higher businesses. he set out a clear strategy and delivered on the targets he set out. he positioned the banks after the pandemic hit for stem potential amounts of capital for shareholders. probably entering the time shareholders would have met the

recruits -- reports of his turnaround. on one hand, you have what appears to be intervention from the italians -- italian treasury in the kind of role it would like at banks to play and therefore greater commitments to italy. m&a which clearly he was not in favor of. expanding unicredit in an elite and resisting. italy over the -- which is desperately trying to find a buyer for. francine: what does it mean for the banking system as a whole? i know there are a couple of names that could replace mustier. none of them are bankers, but they are all italian. can you give us a sense of what will happen? elisa: it reinforces the theme we are hearing about. there seems to be greater pressure on unicredit to focus

more of its growth in italy. all the names are italian. that don't have the breath and depth and experience that mustie r brought to unicredit, from outside the inner circle. i think there is a concern investors could have. given the pressures on unicredit to take over. they're worried now will be whoever succeeds mustier perhaps will not get as good terms as he was trying to clinch in taking over. basically paying for a lot of the integration costs and any capital shortfalls. the concern will be unicredit will take it over on worse terms. francine: very quickly, but did you make of the possible appointment of the deloitte chief executive? elisa: they now have the swiss ceo, which they didn't have for many years.

to openbles them to go the search for a chairman outside switzerland. seeing more international experience, more institutional experience and contacts that will probably complement very nicely. francine: thank you very much. specializes in banks for bloomberg opinion. coming up, a tough year to take over. we will discuss the challenges the world is facing as the chair of the g20 business summit coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: economics, finance, politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua, here in london. the bloomberg first word news with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: federal reserve

jerome powell is warning uncertainties remain for the economy despite progress on a vaccine. positive shot will be for their medium-term, but things will be challenging for new term. a record,s hit beating its previous heights from december, 2017. it takes this year's surge to more than 170%, even with the recent rally, ownership remains concentrated with a small number of investors. according to crypto, about 2% of theunts control 95% of digital assets. tesla's debut on the s&p 500 come all at once, likely sending a ripple through the entire market. money managers will have to adjust their portfolios to make room for the shares of a company

worth over half a trillion dollars. s&p has considered adding tesla in two parts, which would have been unprecedented. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i'm 120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: italy's leadership of the g20 starts today. the presidency's agenda remains on three main pillars of people, planet, and prosperity. be focused onll planning their recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. alcan business leaders play their part? joining us -- how can business leaders play their part? joining us now is emma marcegaglia. thank you so much for speaking to us. is it easier to

talk at the g20 level because you have a biden administration that will take over in january that looks more willing to look at multilateralism as a way forward? i think you are right. it is not always very easy to talk about alter lateral is him. thee we have seen crisis on multilateralism institutions. but i think with a biden presidency, probably we can open a dialogue on this. i think, for example, as you know, we still have the appointment of the new director general that has been blocked by the u.s. administration. now probably we can go on with that. we can talk about reform of the wto, which now has not been able to convey new agreements. i think we can talk about the climate change together. i think we can talk about a

different relationship with china. so i have good hope that we can go back and have a good table where we can talk about the multilateral agreement and we can talk about the global problem because it is also the pandemic has shown that you need global answers to global problems. francine: there was a pretty big trade spat between the u.s. and the e.u. on a lot of cheeses but also subsidies. with that be different once biden takes over? we don't know because everything has to come, and probably the first month of the biden administration will be dedicated to internal problems, the u.s. and a lot of problems. i think probably the biden administration will look at europe more as an ally compared with the trump administration.

i think probably, you know, we can go back and talk about come as you know, we have big -boeings about the airbus dispute. we can talk about data flows, we can talk about the bilateral findionship, where we can agreement. of course, it will not be very ,asy when we talk about tariffs and also the biden administration, talking about buy american provision and their recovery fund. so it will not be everything easier, but probably at least we will have the chance to sit down and talk about also, you know, bilateral trade agreement. francine: how much will your work on these topics actually be hijacked by brexit? we are still king in the next couple of weeks to see what happens -- we are still looking in the next couple of weeks to see what happens. and with the e.u. recovery fund , which is not going to plan?

emma: as we all know, the transition period for e.u.-u.k. is coming to an end at the end of this year, so there is no time left. i don't think we can talk about further expansion on this. so i really hope that at the end we will find an agreement, there are still some points that are not stalled. fishery, weng about are talking about competition points. so still be problems. and i really hope that we will have an agreement because otherwise this will be a very big problem. as you know, companies are also to aadapt, non-deal scenario. but this would be very bad in a situation where all the companies are dealing with the pandemic. so it is still difficult, but i

really hope that we will find an agreement. as you said, there is no time left. we have to find an agreement this week, within the end of this week. as you know, the business community is pushing very strong to really find an agreement between e.u.-u.k.. askcine: i also wanted to you, there is big news in the banking sector in italy with the ier.rture of mr. must is there too much interference with you telling government and private affairs, and do you think that will scare off investors? emma: i think with the pandemic unknown and, and you know, negative impact that we have, everywhere in the world, the intervention of the state is becoming more important. what i think is that this has to

be only for a certain period of time, but then, you know, the free market and the private companies have to be the real leader of the market, and do what they want. in this market, of course, in italy, there is intervention, i think on banks here we are more talking about the consolidation process that is going on, and this is also normal. theink, of course, multiparty issue is there on the table. i understand that i have a different view from the board, from one side and from esthe mr. mustier on the other side. the intervention of the state, if it has to be only for a short period of time to try to solve the problem, but then that has to go -- the situation has to go back to private companies who are the one know what to do,

what kind of investment we need to do, and then the government has to put the views, which is of course very important, not to be a real player in the market. much,ne: thank you so emma marcegaglia, business summit 2021, with some insight of what could happen in italy in the future, with the g20. breaking news the u.k. -- retail, high street struggling after market restrictions. we understand that m's,istrators of dem and confirming that u.k. operations will close if there is no alternative offer. so we will have a look at the high street, all of the number of job losses. the total, it is

about 13,000 people that will lose their jobs. will talk next about fashion, retail, and the u.k. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get to the business flash with leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: credit suisse is proposing that its next chairman be the outgoing ceo of lloyds banking group, antonio horta-osoriio. and fullability private ownership after the crisis, credit suisse

is trying to force a run on those profits. after four years of leading italy's biggest bank, jean-pierre mustier is stepping down. clashing with abortive or strategy and the government's bank.bout its troubled he will remain in position until april or until a successor is found. j.p.morgan is planning to boost annual bonuses for sales in trading workers. --t is despite play out payouts declining across the company. after generating 23.5 billion dollars of revenue for the first nine months of the year, bonuses will increase by up to 20%, and that is your bloomberg business. francine? thank you so much. we are getting breaking news out of the european central bank,

and this is on stimulus and the crossroads between stimulus and monetary policy, and this is saying that the ecb should not ease the financial sense. there is quite a lot of theory put in place about what exactly it is here to do, if it works, and there is said to be an agreement on stimulus. she is talking about the span of the e.u. recovery fund. let's talk about retail. it is a chance for the fashion industry to celebrate his success. at london's hepa royal albert hall. it is december in london. withyear is different things taking place digitally this week. joining us now is stephanie phair. of the british fashion council. congratulations. i know you have done so much work in trying to do these words -- these awards digitally. it is time to take stock also of celebrate fashion but also going

through the difficult times. how much have these lockdowns -- how much has covid, the way we shop, changed, and how much of an effect is it having on the fashion industry? stephanie: hi, francine. it has been an unprecedented year in fashion. it has been particularly hard for the fashion industry. estimates say that the industry in the u.k. is set to lose $10 , and that his numbers, job losses, an industry that employs 900,000 people. why the be ft represents the top of the industry, this goes all the way to the -- it has been a difficult year if you count on the ongoing negotiations around brexit. you think about covid, policy changes around tax-free shopping, it is definitely a year of change. but covid has functioned as a catalyst to really look at the

shakeout that we have been seeing, and accelerating trends that we have been seeing in the industry already. francine: stephanie, when you look at some of the things going aren high street, there , i don'tbs at risk this doesn't translate into the fashion world, but what is the level of angst? our chief executives coming to you worried that their business cannot stay afloat in these difficult times? stephanie: we are definitely worried, and it is devastating for high street. if you look at job losses, many of the 13,000 job losses are regional, so it absolutely impacts the industry from top to bottom, and yet people are worried that the retail industry really has two sides to it. and it is not all bad. trendsaid, accelerating online is a big trend.

speaking to the consumers now are doing well. this is an opportunity to reset around consumer lines, to think about the things that consumers care about -- sustainability, prominencence -- the of clothing. while there is a shakeout and we will see losses particularly on the high street, there is an opportunity to reset. have been a lot of talks for a long time around the high street and online working in tandem where the high street becomes destination. so chief executives are thinking about this. they are thinking about how to adapt to this change. but in the meantime, we are seeing these losses and these , absolutely, not aided by covid. is it too much at

once? it is more difficult without the shopping experience without people being able to touch the luxury items, buying online. at their much, looking supply chains and becoming more green? stephanie: i think it is necessary. it is more difficult but it is necessary because the consumer is taking that way. it is the right thing to do, the economically viable thing to do. and in a joint statement with our partners, the council of fashion designers in america, this is the opportunity to reset because those are the businesses that will survive in the future. so use this opportunity to brand oldow down, re-think packages, re-think distribution panels, re-think overproduction come and go much more direct to consumer ultimately will be better for the environment. we have a lot of external factors that brexit, covid, government policy, and we need

as much support as we can get right now. francine: are companies ready for brexit? in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 -- 2021 is a couple weeks away. have been talking about brexit for quite some time, and has been a long road. e have encouraged them to prepare for the challenges of a no deal brexit. we know that a deal is better for business, whichever way you stand on brexit. the wto regulations that will come in will hit the fashion industry particularly hard because it is a very complex supply chain with a lot of import and export. we have already seen businesses make decisions, distribution centers to europe. they will be thinking where they will create manufacturing. so while the businesses are prepared for no deal, we would hope that in the last couple of

weeks that these negotiations, we could see a deal that is better for business. thank youstephanie, so much. stephanie phair, the chair of the british fashion council. is seekingmoderna clearance for its vaccine. we will speak to the chief executive next. this is bloomberg. ♪

thewo weeks ago, we had beginnings of a phase 3. the thing that is most important for me is the serial cases. zero, zero where people have a vaccine. if you think about what happened, with the cases leading to hospitalizations, i see you -- leading to the icu, leading to death -- i think that our role is to get to vaccine approved in the coming weeks. we are filing today to be able to do so in europe and the u.k.

and other countries, hoping to get approval in the next few weeks. example, theyor -- i wouldto have toect within 24 to 72 hours have committee approval. we are working very closely in , working to make sure that within 24 hours after approval, products will be out and vaccinations will start so we can protect as many as we can. we are still on track for 20 million doses in the u.s. before the end of the year. >> how do you imagine it actually working? what does it look like when this starts to rollout, when people start to come forward and say they want the vaccine or are being offered the vaccine? >> it will be atypical typical scale, flu vaccination,

the number of people at the same time. but basically it is like a regular shot. room, they a private clean your arm, they inject the product, they put a band-aid on, add next one. you need to get your boost 30 days after. governmentlot in the to be able to track which you have got in your prime injection, so you get the same in your boost. that is what it is going to look like. of having nochance disease if you get infected. get thethe vaccine, you infection, you get no disease. in the small percent chance that you get disease, it will be milder. this is why i think vaccination is going to be so important to stop this pandemic, because we

can save lives and go back to normal. >> can you help us break down the data older than 65? any sort of effect that you noticed in your testing? disclosed.not yet we will do that when the fda meets. yesterday.y got this the team is looking at everything. people, what we see is that it is very similar to the other age groups. -- by the time we meet on december 17 with the advisory board, we will have all the details, and most probably those will be put online by the fda. a few days before the advisory board, it is done by the fda.

guy: is there anybody who should not get >> today the study has only been done for people above the age of 18, so we are going to start very soon this year, studying teenagers, so teenagers should not get vaccinated because there is no safety data yet. francine: that was the modernity of executive, speaking with alix steel and guy johnson. the market affected not only by what is going on in equities today. after the month of november, december 1, and there is talk about oil and we will look at opec-plus and what it will do next. we will talk about bitcoin. this is bloomberg. -- more bloomberg surveillance next. ♪ in a land not so far away, people are saving hundreds

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francine: opec breakdown. the group delays output talks until thursday after ministers fail to reach a deal. c-suite clash. unicredit chief executive jean-pierre mustier is stepping down after arguments with board members over strategy. the bank prepares its search for its successor. shares sink. and credit suisse's new chairman. the swiss bank tapped outgoing lloyds group chief executive antonio horta-osorio as its next chairman, looking outside the swiss establishment. good morning and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. lisa abramowicz stepping in for tom keene in new york. i think we are getting breaking news out of pfizer. i know this is news that could move the markets. let's get straight to it. i don't know if you see it. lisa: i've got it here. we are looking at pfizer and about thepeaking covid vaccine. this follows news we saw yesterday in the united states with moderna, the objective, getting it out