britain the first western country to license a coronavirus vaccine. it could be available as soon as next week. taking it slow. joe biden says he's in no rush to remove phase one tariffs on china. he tells the press that he'll conduct a full review of policy towards beijing. plus, a fresh offer. treasury yields spike amid revived fiscal stimulus talks. jay powell and steve mnuchin both back further aid. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm francine lacqua in london. tom keene is in new york. after a couple days off, tom. we have been quizzing people on the markets and what they do with their left overs from thanksgiving, so i'm expecting a full debrief of what the tom keene household those with them. debrief is that the leftovers evaporated by saturday. we came in with a 24 pound turkey. it was ok for 28 people, but next year i'm going the size with the corn and cobb, the

presidential pardon turkeys. were going to 45 pounds. for our worldwide audience, 8:00 new york time, it broke last night, rumors and speculation of a presidential pardon. that is part of the zeitgeist this morning. francine: i was trying to get to bed but was hoping to try to read all the news. we had a joe biden interview with the new york times. there is a lot going with the pfizer vaccine. it is amazing how quickly they got it done and approved. and breaks it, we cannot forget -- and brexit, we cannot forget. let's get to first word news with ritika gupta. ritika: the u.k. has become the first western country to approve a coronavirus vaccine. british regulators have given emergency authorization to the shot developed by pfizer and biontech, the two companies saying there vaccine is 95% effective in preventing the illness. it will be available in the u.k.

starting next week. president-elect joe biden will not quickly end the phase one trade do with china. biden told the new york times he wants to conduct a review of u.s. policy with beijing,. he said he would not make any immediate moves on tariffs imposed by president trump. a warning from president trump. he says he will veto the defense spending bill unless congress abolishes a law that protects tech companies from liability over most content that their users publish. president and his allies accused the tech giants of silencing conservatives. he made the accusation on twitter. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. let's get right to it, a change

to landscape from where we were five days ago, 10 days ago, where we were 90 days ago. it is real simple, with futures come off the record move yesterday. nasdaq 100 out to record highs yesterday. 10 year yield to four digits, .9228. john normand will join us in this hour. the dollar churning here, but nevertheless resilient. 1.2055a speaks volumes, 1.2055.speaks volumes, francine: what i'm getting from insiders is that the narrative has not changed. you wonder if it is a game of chicken again. and then ambassadors were briefed, but you could say you would expect that kind of thing at the moment. .uropean stocks are fluctuating when you look at the record highs, it is also surprising to

see that optimism over this coronavirus vaccine was already priced in. that is probably my biggest take away out of today, and i'm ,ooking at the chinese yuan after the report on the biden .ariff staff britain is the first western country to license a coronavirus vaccine. let's bring in steven riley. professor riley, thank you. it is an amazing day to think about the speed at which this was settled given -- when you have enough resources and great minds, when you can solve a problem. steven riley, how much of the population needs to be vaccinated to make sure there is herod immunity and your protect everyone? immunityhere is herd and you protect everyone? as we do that, we may

see the behavioral adjustment in the population. to be quite honest, it is not a straightforward question because at the moment the pattern in epidemics seems to be constrained by behavior, so as byreduce the population risk covering the most at risk, it is difficult to get a straight answer to that, i'm afraid. francine: we are also getting the u.k. medical regulator chief speaking in a brief with reporters saying that public safety will come first on the vaccine, and he continues to say that no corners have been cut on the vaccine approval. when you look at the challenge, is it a challenge of distribution? is it refrigeration, or is it going to be getting people to sign up to get the vaccine? what do you see as the biggest challenge for the national health service right now? steven: i think given that we are not going to be overwhelmed,

there is lots of preparation that has been done. i think the logistics, i would be confident about the logistics. the initial groups that have been targeted will have a very strong appetite. i suspect as we move forward and as volume goes up that the challenge may be about demand in lower risk, but it is difficult to say -- i for one have been incredibly impressed by the data before the vaccine has been

approved, and i generally hope everyone else has been as well. tom: professor riley, tom keene in new york. thank you for joining us today. i don't think it can be said enough, the study of thalidomide -- there was a tragedy in the 1960's with a drug that was rushed out in europe, the u.s. was fortunate to catch it. for our audience, can you make clear how different this vaccine is versus anything to do with the tragedy of thalidomide? steven: i think that the processes are in place to assess expediteven to kind of -- even with the expedited timeline, it is completely different and vastly, vastly superior than the processes that were in place during the period that you just mentioned, tom. i don't think right now that that is a reasonable comparison. this is a totally different time and very different technology. the level of transparency in the follow-up with the volume of data, it is extremely is beinge level that used to recommend these products. tom: you are definitive on viruses and technology, the movement around these pathogens around our territory. is there a point where we can

have so many cases, particularly in rural areas like north dakota or kansas where we get to hear rd immunity because everybody has been sick? steven: i think there is definitely the possibility. with some groups, by age or by other risk factors, there will be enough people expose for a short time that that will affect -- it can stop it going up quickly because the key groups that have been driving, this is the possibility. have soy groups can many infections that they change things going up. but there is nothing there to rely on from a public health point of view. peopleic message, it if don't have a way of controlling the virus, we should expect it to go up and we should expect pressure on our health care system until people change their behavior.

is aine: i know it difficult question because we don't understand 100% the pattern of this virus, and we also don't know whether once you have the vaccine you can still catch it, pass it on without being sick. given what you know so far, when will we have -- when will we stop having lockdowns, social distancing, and masks? how long does it take from that first vaccine to going back to normal? francine: you can approach -- steven: you can approach the question from both ends. the countries that have been fortunate enough to secure large volumes of the vaccine, we can work backwards from next summer and say that probably next summer is very high. spring depends a lot on the subsequent approval of the vaccines and the volume. moving out from now, what could

happen, we have got to remember that even in a single individual, it takes a number of weeks, six weeks from the first dose, to reaching a state where they are protected in a way that they have been in the trial. it is a long time. not in that protected state for some time. you have to work from both ends. you can say that you can see a window where things have to change. -- you can see a window where things have to change. riley, anssor official at baylor medicine has talked about getting a covid vaccine which over archers any number of pathogens over the years. a broader vaccine. with the specificity of this vaccine, do we get closer to a broader vaccine against the covid class? isven: that sounds like he

doing some great horizons, and it echoes the flu vaccine that has been a theme in influenza research for a long period of time. there is someat very good immunology being done. we need to understand how these or afic first vaccines up year-round. we need to understand how the affects those compartments and then how natural infection can affect those departments. if we can observe those things, if there is any waning in that department, at that point, i think that is like a moonshot thing, really trying to push people to think about the next five to 10 years and be ambitious. my eyes are much closer to the ground right now. tom: professor, thank you so much.

steven riley, on the geography and distribution around the world, of course at imperial college, london. we have seen the team in the united kingdom as they advance a vaccine and they advance it, worried about safety, the headline over the last 20 minutes. in the next hour, kevin tabb will join us, from beth israel lahey health in boston. futures at negative six but at record highs on the close. this is bloomberg. ♪

mr. biden: right now, the full congress should come together and pass a robust package for relief. with any package, passed in a

lame-duck session, it is likely to be a best just a start. my transition team is already working on what i will put forward in the next congress to address the multiple crises we thefacing, especially economic and covid crisis. >> for the american people, we can be an institution that wakes up every morning thinking about you. your jobs, your paychecks, your struggles, your hopes, your dignity, and your limitless potential. the dialogue moves forward here for the president elect, and with it the markets move forward. we are going to reintroduce right now the charts of pre-pandemic. let's bring up a chart here if we can. we are working with all the different constraints here we have on the pandemic, and there is a very famous charge with -- chart which john normand of

j.p.morgan knows. axis is a logarithm to shows the rate of change, the massive plunging yields coming off the crisis in the pandemic, and there we go with a little bit of a bounce in the vicinity of 1%. john normand knows this chart, and he joins us from j.p.morgan. i love showing the log chart. it shows the rate of change and it shows emotion. ability to get back to the trends of the volker years from long ago? john: it is going to be incredibly difficult to get back to our yields. precondition is enough inflation to get the central banks to tighten. that inflation may develop over the next two or three years, that i don't think it is part of the baseline for 2021. 30 or 40 basis points is a

pretty meaningless move when it comes to the broader assets. move, summinger up your work, his lower rates forever, and even some of your research is speculating on very new, ever lower rates. when do you know to buy the paper with price up and yield you lower? john: i think you are going to have yields lower in the u.s. because this is the only bond market that can rally more than 25 basis points. it is going to have to be on the back of some sort of macro shock or growth shock. doesn'tif congress manage to pass timmons in the lame-duck session, if the softening brought out -- broadens out to other sectors of the labor market and consumption, this is what you do. the rally in the mod market -- in the bond market -- if anyone is looking for bigger bond market rallies than that, it

will have to come in the emerging markets where rates are higher, to cut rates because of inflation. francine: how are you expecting the recovery to take place? good morning, first of all. how are you expecting they recovery to take place in 2021? how quickly can he come once a vaccine is approved in the u.s.? the vaccine will likely be rolled out with a liker of concurrent items fiscal stimulus in the u.s., increasing the maturity of asset purchases. i think the combination of those gives us a miniboom, maybe four or 5% growth. the maxi boom is what we saw over the spring because the lockdowns were so much more extraordinary. a bit of a repeat with a broad contours of what we witnessed in the spring and summer. the magnitude seems to be

smaller because the extent of the lockdowns is more modest, and the extent of stimulus is more modest. it will be pretty to easy that able you beauty good morning. gett will be pretty easy to that. how long will it take to go back to the growth trend that we would have seen, had we not had a pandemic? john: i think had there not been a pandemic, talking getting back to the previous level of gdp, this is probably a process that requires at least a year, maybe more so that you can combine the shortfall of the economy relative to that pre-pandemic trend, maybe 3% of gdp. we are already in month six or seven of the recovery, so it is a pretty deep hole in the economy. it is going to take at least a year to get back to that level. i don't think that is a constraint on asset markets

because in that interim adjustment process, the stimulus -- is extraordinary come allowing extraordinary levels of valuations in the economy. and profits are not back to pre-pandemic levels. francine: with us -- tom: with us, john normand. he will lead off the next half-hour. coming up, it is the christmas bear, and the christmas bear is there. usually it is the visit of michael ward, with me on the desk with francine on queen victoria street. this year, a challenge as we catch up with michael ward. we do that next. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm ritika gupta with your bloomberg business flash. it's one of the biggest technology deals of the year. salesforce has agreed to buy -- for $27.7 billion in cash and stock. that would give the corporate software giant a popular workplace communications platform. -- november 24 is the day before talks between the companies. mexico will cash in its insurance policy this year for

the fourth time in the last two decades. it will receive a payout of a 20202.5 billion as sovereign oil head. mexico locks in its oil revenue by options contracts it buys from a small group of investment banks and oil companies. hewlett-packard enterprises is making a major move. one of the founding computer makers in silicon valley is shifting its headquarters to houston. hp says it is already building a state-of-the-art campus. the move comes as companies and individuals leave an area known for its high cost of living. that is the latest bloomberg business flash. francine? onncine: a lot of the focus the data is on the pfizer news. it has not move the needle at all. it is incredible to see what was priced in and what was not priced in. a couple of things moved on the back of the interview that joe biden gave to the new york times, and one of them is

6.5634., at look out for pound as well. brexit negotiators are racing for a deal. ambassador said risks remain. i don't really know if this is new rhetoric or whether it is the right thing to do with negotiations, but i guess we will know in the next couple of days. tom: on the data front, i would note that the real yield has rolled over. i don't have it in the data check, but the real yield of -.92, we will talk about that through the morning. .he euro out for 120 -- out for 1.20. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom and francine. he is back after celebrating thanksgiving.

brexit negotiators working to strike a deal by the end of the week. boris is facing his biggest rebellion yet. john is with us. quite a lot of pound moves as soon as someone mentions no deal. is this posturing? if we get a deal, it is skinny. are repaying too much attention to day by day negotiations? think we pay too much attention to the daily headlines . be skinny deal will unhelpful to the pound. dislocation large but it is nonetheless against the backdrop of zero yield

currency the next couple years, the pound is the european equivalent of the dollar. i disagree there is a big opportunity in u.k. assets. interesting. are you expecting a deal? there will be a deal, meaning an agreement. push thety of it to economy -- four years has been a spent on achieving an outcome not particularly helpful to the economy. this is an historic event.

tom: i look at real yield. contained chart, elegant with remarkable abilities. which way can they cut? i think they will be around current levels -10 or 20 basis points for the next several years, then the move will be down because in years time, the fed sees firming in inflation. we probablyom now, see a pop higher. the market will get more excited about the start of fed tightening cycle, which it did in 2013.

higherill be a big snap preparesy as inflation for the next tightening cycle. that is in the distance. the story next year is real yields in a stable range. acute forink it is the next 12 months. tom: john emailed in and said do show.hart about the farro heaven for bid, there used to be positive real yield. we have managed our way down to the unique place we are now near -1%. how important is it for society to get back to constructive real yield? is that political noise? john: the bigger issue is at

what point are the games generated on financial assets being distributed? equality haveome many causes but one contributor is inflation in asset prices held across different members of society. yield is a much broader question of who owns financial assets. one positive consequence of monetary stimulants is broad asset price inflation. toncine: what is the answer that very good question? ben: my guess is it it will extremely difficult to have broader distribution of asset because the presumption around financial assets is one has to have a disposable income

after groceries and tuition. requiresn issue that leveling up of income to generate savings that can be put into financial assets. i'm not sure if there is another policy that achieves it as well as lifting the level of incomes. francine: have we come to the limit? is it gestating off deflation? hindrance?ul or a john: qe programs have reached credit spreads are below average. decided to move to other assets -- ecb has latitude to buy equity if they wanted.

in the u.s., we are closer to that limit. purchased isassets more constrained. programs have lost their usefulness over the medium. persistently low levels of yield and spreads continue the crowding in of investors into risky assets. the direct impact of qe has diminished. the indirect impact i don't think is complete yet. the longer reach, the more risk investors would take. avoid higherng to yield assets. francine: thank you, john norman. for the first time, coronavirus vaccine available in a western country. regulators and the u.k. have

approved the shot made by pfizer. 800,000 doses are ready for delivery from belgium. 50 hospitals are preparing to administer. in the u.s., fda will meet next week to discuss the vaccine. at least one of president trump's policies that joe biden will keep, at least for now. leave the phase one trade deal with china in place. he wants to consult with allies. biden said the same applies to tariffs. discussedtrump has whether to grant preemptive pardons to his children, son-in-law and rudy giuliani. the president has told people he is concerned the biden administration may target his three eldest children, son-in-law and giuliani. the white house is not commenting.

the senate is expected to vote today to advance the nomination of christopher wallace to the federal reserve board. director at the st. louis fed. mitch mcconnell has not indicated he will try to revive president trump's other fed nominee. her nomination was blocked weeks ago. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake from bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. .'m ritika gupta this is bloomberg. francine dying to talk to michael ward, managing director over the jimmy choo diamond crystal sneakers, priced $4000. francine: it was meant to be a surprise! tom: diamond crystal sneakers. only michael ward would have those in the proper size. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning, "bloomberg surveillance", francine and tom in london and new york. visity, this is an annual with a gentleman from harrods so we can deplete them wallet at the acclaimed store. michael ward, even he, unprepared for a pandemic. we get a briefing. what an original holiday season. what is your biggest headache now to make it a celebration? closures is normal.

lots of stock. we are going on sale today ahead of boxing day to make sure everybody gets a little love christmas. tom: it is about the experience. how do you manage restaurants? the acclaimed foodcourt. how do you manage that? escalators. how do you piece it together in a pandemic? changed.everything has we have standard operating procedures for every areas, screens to make sure people are safe. we are still creating units. the differences we want to make sure people get a normal christmas. i hope when you come to harrods today, you would not see any other difference from any other year. francine: good morning. what have you learned about e-commerce? what has gone well? what could you improve?

michael: we were lucky we chose the far-fetched system to go live in february. we launched into the pandemic with one of the tech leaders managing our website. that put us in a strong position. shoptime, we managed to from our shop floor. in the last breakdown, we had super sellers contacting our great customers to make sure we could get anything from the store anywhere in the world to them. francine: i bet you are missing the tourists. michael: i think we will see them gradually drift back. interestingly, we have taken preorders and all those beautiful customers from the middle east. i think we will see the corridors between the uae and qatar start to help during the

christmas period. tom: the gordon ramsay burger bar is an institution in las vegas. you bring it over to fine dining. how do you fold hamburgers into harrods? we bring the best of the best. i ate there yesterday. it is probably the best tomato sauce. there isn't the size and scale you may see in america. the salads are small and refined. [laughter] tom: francine: that sounds like the keene household. [laughter] tom: i guess so. i am glad you are serving small and refined salads. francine has picked out the jimmy choo's $4000, crystal spangled shoes. [laughter]

let's get back to the basics of harrods, whether the cosmetics, the watches, great. are you really going to move product? does a record stock market indicate a surprise year for your conventional sales? we have had amazing local sales. we have been selling 600,000 pound rings. it is still there. the customer wants fun. over the weekend, friday, we sold a beautiful evening down to someone who wanted to dress up in an evening down to watch strictly come dancing. tom: anna edwards was at harrods? [laughter] francine: that is probably something tom does. he is imagining himself with a cocktail. are we just going to be online much more? we have all changed habits. will we ever go back to what it was like in 2019?

michael: i went to shanghai for fashion week. i went through the pain of weeks of quarantine. partye got out, we had a for our best customers. it was just like going back to normal. china has gone back instantaneously for where we were. there is still the future for people who give great experiences to their customers. today, we opened the biggest louis vuitton store in any department store in the world with exclusive products. we make it special on every occasion. transfixed on netflix by the crown. some of us are catching up. huge event worldwide. explain the present royal family and their relationship. you go back to when the store burnt down in the 1880's, the

elite that supported the royal family. are they eating at the gordon ramsay burger bar? michael: no. we would not expect them to eat there. we occasionally do transactions with them. they have long-established relationships. it is not like the other royal families who may be profligate. hours tend to be more conservative than most. francine: you are such a good sport.