0 secos.nd aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. >> the resurgence of the disease is certainly not good for the economy. >> with the vaccines insight, there is much hope. >> entrepreneurial america will come back. >> there is pent-up demand for getting out of the house. >> there is an enormous amount of stimulus that has yet to be spent. >> it is time to get in big and spend big. >> even though 2021 is supposed to be a good year, you may start off in a deep hole. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. everyone.morning, .e welcome all of you it is a simulcast, bloomberg

radio, bloomberg television worldwide. that silence you hear out there is the silence of the bears. an extraordinary stock market performance, and yields we saw yesterday out near 1%. david kostin coming, who really frames the bull case as well. what is the bear case right now, other than disbelief? jonathan: there's also consensus and every one is piled into the same trade. i don't know. we will ask david what he gets pushed back on and just a couple of moments. for me, i think that is the sound of capitulation over the last month, capitulation on the fact that 2021 is looking better, and the forward outlook looks pretty right -- looks really bright. that seems to be the take away of many people. how many have used but in including morgan stanley, that have been constructive for most of this year, who are now pretty cautious about the next month -- about the next few months? payrolls friday will be interesting. tom: i am glad you mentioned

friday. our calendars are all out of whack, particularly as i have been on sabbatical. we've got adp as well. lisa, what is your observation? we had that great conversation david coston -- with gregory peters of pgim. lisa: there's the reality that even next year, we will see ongoing bankruptcies, with businesses that maybe don't have the same kind of environment post pandemic. i am singing of hotels, airlines that might not be getting the same kind of volume stated in the past. needs to be a reckoning of that. it is not necessarily priced in. i am trying to square that with the fed support of higher inflation, and all of this is a model. that is why it is hard to feel too excited either way. the into to all of it, and this is the takeaway, lower returns expectations. what does that do to an environment of pensions and other retirement funds that need

that return. tom: benioff out with the purchase of slack. you get this like i don't. look at their financials. ebit.fit, no maybe they are cash positive sometime in the next year put -- and then the -- in the next year. but the idea that tech is dead, i don't see tech dead. jonathan: business continues. people are getting on with it into 2021, hoping for a better world. tom: it is going to be interesting to see. what we are going to frame is this bulla -- this bull and bear tug-of-war. what is great about david kostin is that he writes great research notes that look out 1, 2, and three years. blended in two to three years out is a constant 2% to 3% lift

of the market. he is with goldman sachs. david, good morning. i love how you give us spx 4600. how do we get there? david: we get there a couple of ways. we get there around 3700 at the end of this year, 4300 at the end of 2021, and then 4600 at the end of 2022. so what are the building blocks behind it? basically, an economy that is getting better, earnings that are growing, and you have the rates staying superlow. those are the three building blocks. alternative? what else is out there? equities becomes the default opportunity. i want to thing about it in the following ways. break the market into two pieces. let's take the five big stocks that are almost 1/4 of the

market, and let's take the other 75% of the market. those sales were up 18% this year. sales for every thing else, down 5%. that explains why these stocks were up around 50% year to date. we are looking forward. what is the path forward? these companies are expected to have revenue growth into the next couple of years of around 15%. that is kind of part of your leg going forward. the second part, if you think of the other 495 stocks, they are excited to have around 6% revenue growth of each of the next couple of years. that is basically the story about an economy getting better coming off of a pandemic, and generally getting better. the fed on hold. that is our general assumption. vaccinations, herd immunity by next of next year -- by the middle of next year, all of that

is positive. i think the market will continue to recognize that. jonathan: it just sounds like a multiples story, but when i read your research, it is not just about the multiples. it is about better earnings you are looking for, and above consensus earnings. can you walk me through why you are a little bit more constructive then maybe the consensus is at the moment on earnings specifically? the consensus expectation is around $165 of s&p 500 earnings next year. we are at $175. part of it is a better economic backdrop. we've got gdp growth something around 5%. the consensus expectation around 3.8%. that is a higher level of activity. inflation is under control, so that is basically allowing companies to have that broader level of earnings growth with not a lot of pressure on input

costs. your margins are basic a part of that recovery. the fed made it very clear in our view they are on hold for the next three years at least, perhaps as long as five years based on the economics forecast, so that is a pretty benign backdrop. it is a good backdrop for the equity market. when you think about the acid alligators, the portfolio managers out there, around 50% of the assets are allocated to equities. other less than 25% allocated to bonds. cash is offering zero. it is still an attractive place for the equity market. jonathan: that is the index story. going up to 2022, let's talk about a sector level story now. industrials, materials, the cyclical trade of the last month has played out wonderfully for some of the people. you're staying overweight information technology.

why? david: i want you to think about it three ways. think about growth, thing about value, and thing about cyclicals. the growth story is basically duration. those longer-term cash flows at the zero lower bound, those growth in mostly technologies is prized. that is worth a lot, and they are lightly to outperform. you have the best value, absolutely, and health care. they are the cheapest relative to the market in 40 years. the earlyback to clinton administration when they were trying to restructure art of the health care. look at the obamacare time 10 years ago. those are the only times they were similar, the valuation of health care is even more attractive than at either of those times. that is your value opportunity. is cyclical opportunity pandemic relief coming from the vaccination. that is your three-pronged approach.

i think other areas of the market are likely to do less well. financials tell edging the flat yield curve, energy still under a lot of pressure, consumer staples, utilities. but those other ways i would break that down. what i am-- lisa: hearing from you is perhaps the rally in some of the highest cyclical stocks, the travel sectors, areas that have gotten beaten up disproportionately during the pandemic, that that perhaps has gotten a little but i had of itself. is that accurate? the way i would break apart your question, the financials i think have challenging headwinds in terms of the very flat yield curve, the fact that there's big reserves that need to be taken for the uncertainty on potential defaults, from the consumer as well. the federal reserve has made

regulations difficult to actually raise dividends. limited,he banks are prohibited from buying back stocks at this juncture. those are many of the drivers that have been benefiting financials when those are in play, and they are not there right now. on the industrial side, the idea of vaccinations does offer better opportunity for some of the travel sector and some of those industrial categories. some of thet to aerospace defense companies as well. i sent the way is think about value opportunities is to look at 2021 and 2022 levels of profits, and compare those with the pre-pandemic level of profits in 2019. make that comparison. for the overall market, you will be a little bit higher. maybe you are about 7% higher. that is our estimate. 7% higher between 2019 and 2021. you've got other areas where you got a really depressed level of

profits. maybe they are 50%, 60%, as much as you had two years ago. i think that is the opportunity for normalization. some ofthere, we see the travel and hospitality area. they were falling into that category. i want to pick up on one thing you said earlier. you were mentioning credit, and what is happening. the equity market is telling a slightly different story from the credit market because if you look at the strongest balance sheet companies, they are up 26% year to date. compare that with a weak balance sheet portfolio. they are down 1%. that is sector neutral, so that is not going to skew towards one particular area. you are paying 35 times for a strong balance sheet portfolio, but that is telling us that fund managers are not totally embracing the idea that the economy is totally recovering,

and that we are in the clear. you are seeing pockets of opportunity, and i would say if you have a view that there's a path towards normalization, some of the weaker balance sheet companies would be attractive at this juncture, and they seem to be clustered around the companies that a been hurt the most independent. jonathan: data the most independent. -- the most in the pandemic. jonathan: you always make it so easy. that is the road towards 4600 in the back half of 2022. tom: i just can't say enough. --d, have they been right boy, have they been right. jonathan: the roaring 20's for goldman sachs. coming up, julie norman, university college london professor. the first word news, i ritika gupta. the u.k. has become the first western country to approve a coronavirus vaccine.

britt is regulators have given emergency authorization to the shot developed by pfizer and biontech. the two company's have said there vaccine is 95% effective in preventing the illness. it will be available in the u.k. starting next week. president-elect joe biden won't quickly end that phase i trade with china. biden told the new york times he first wants to conduct a review of u.s. policy with beijing. that will include consulting with key allies. biden also said he wouldn't make any immediate moves on tariffs imposed by president trump. in hong kong, activist joshua wong was sentenced to more than a year in jail for leading a protest outside a police headquarters asked year. it was one of the most high-profile cases in the government crackdown on the pro-democracy movement. wong'sher members of now disbanded political party received shorter sentences. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

gupta.ika this is bloomberg. ♪

mr. biden: right now the full congress should come together and pass a robust package for relief to address this urgent

needs, but anything passed in a lame-duck session is likely to be, at asked, just a start. my transition team is already working on but i will put forward in the next congress to address the multiple crises we are facing. jonathan: that was president-elect joe biden on the crisis we are facing in the response he would like to put together in the coming weeks and months. maybe even years as well. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the adp report rubbing across the bloomberg in the last couple of moment. here's the number. 307. it was 365. an upward revision 2404. so 300-7000. big downside surprise -- so 307,000. big downside surprise. but it has not been an indicator of payrolls. the payrolls estimate right now is 486,000, a deceleration previously. tom: jobless claims always

important, and they have really compressed down to a key point. that will be a talking point for us tomorrow on radio and television. right now, julie norman joins us. an expert on all sorts of issues of distress in politics. one of those is her study of activism. professor norman, thank you for joining us. on the president-elect, liberals , i guess they are called progressives now, and the idea of activism. what is the activism this president will face? julie: i think that is a really good question. i think we will see different kinds of rushers on biden from both the left and the right. we know that there will be pressure on biden to move forward on campaign promises he made regarding racial justice

and inequalities. i thick a lot of that will take the form of more positive activism, but most certainly some other kinds of pressure from the left as well, which we have already seen in some comments in response to his nominees so far. but i do think he has a very pragmatic team in place. peopleutting in a lot of who resonate with individuals across the spectrum. we will see what kind of mode that takes. tom: there is that washington word, pragmatic. in what way will moderate democrats be pragmatic with their more boisterous brethren? think this is going to be what the biden adminstration is actually able to do. we know that they will most likely be somewhat constrained to a more moderate agenda, as it is looking like a most likely republican congress.

if they are able to give some nods to some issues on the progressive agenda, i think one area where they will have the most ability to do that is with climate change. they have already seen biden appoint john kerry as the new climate czar, so there will most likely be executive action to unwind regular in regards to the environment. really some areas that are important to burgers is in the party, but it is also clear that he probably won't move us are in other areas that some on the left would want. lisa: and perhaps that includes china, although this has been a bipartisan issue. we saw in the interview with thomas friedman with president-elect biden, talking about he does not plan to roll back the tariffs on china in short order. his first order of affairs will be to reestablish the ties with allies. what will the united front look like when it comes to tackling the china issue as they define it?

julie: i think this is the area aere we won't see as much of real policy shift as much is just a shift in style. the biden adminstration will most likely maintain a somewhat tough on china approach, especially in regards to issues like security and technology, but there will be some room open for engagement on issues like climate change, trade, and doing so in a way that is much more collaborative with allies, especially european allies, rather than just on america first approach or a bullying or strong-arming of other countries. jonathan: we are talking about policies in the future, obviously. the president-elect is putting together his cabinet, and i thing we are all happy to see a smooth transition starting to form going into 2021. but when the president-elect starts talking about policy in thinkre and now, do you

that helps the formulation of policy or hinders it? julie: i think this is a challenge right now for biden. he obviously wants to weigh in on the big crises facing americans right now, the economic crisis and the pandemic, of course. but he has to do so in a way that is not only going to far in the current headmans -- that is not only impinging too far on the current administration, but also on congress. we saw the bipartisan framework that was put forward. there was some pushback to that from republicans and democrats in other areas of leadership in congress. that was kind of stepping on toes in negotiations. i think the is that for biden and for others who just went to see some real changes on these issues, they don't mind that pressure going forward, and they don't mind having a stronger push, even if it is seen as pressure by other in their own party -- by others in their own

party. jonathan: appreciate your perspective. it is a delicate situation. let's talk about that. it is a delicate situation for resident elect -- for a president-elect to be weighing in any firmer than he already is on setting policy that we need to see materialize in the coming weeks. tom: an important conversation here, and i can't remember who it was with, is the primaries of 2022. for some of these candidates, democrat and republican, it is not the general election of 2022. it is getting to the general election through the primary process, and that is really where the visit -- where the activism comes in in district around the country. jonathan: do you think it is helpful that the president-elect asserts himself with the existing administration and existing officials to try and make something happen before he is sworn in? tom: it is typical. i would say within a lame-duck,

it is typical for the new guy coming into show some grace and say let's get something done here. does it often happened? no. but nevertheless, it is not unusual to hear that kind of language from the interim president -- from the interim president. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. we count you down to payrolls friday. a downside to price on the adp report. not much of a move in this market. downy futures about 11 points on the s&p 500. the story of dollar weakness. euro-dollar adds two new 2020 highs. $1.2080 was where we got, and then we came back. after the move on treasury yields yesterday on the 10 year, we settled down, 0.9261%. what was behind that move yesterday? the fiscal talks? a robust read of the ism? lisa: fiscal talks, that's what

i think. jonathan: you think the fiscal talks, lisa? lisa: i do. we can discuss more. jonathan: let's see how those fiscal talks go. see if supply does start to weigh in on the curve. from london and new york this morning, this is bloomberg. ♪ - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker,

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jonathan: for our audience worldwide, live on bloomberg tv and radio. futures pullback from all-time highs on the s&p 500 and on the nasdaq. s&p,a third of 1% on the we pullback .4% on the nasdaq. interesting part of the session yesterday for me, not the rally itself. we are used to that. the bond market, yields higher. a few things going on. physical talks back on the table -- fiscal talks back on the table. we talk about that with jp morgan. the data was resilient. waited on earlier, and the tenure -- weighed in earlier. i want to finish on foreign-exchange.

euro-dollar,gh on 1.2080. the dollar weakness starting to come through. euro-dollar 1.2069. here is the important part of the conversation. where's the pain threshold for the ecb? euro-dollar is a very narrow way of looking at this. it is important to look at the broader market. this is a dollar move. it is not just a euro move. it is a dollar weaker move. ,hen you look at euro-dollar what did it do yesterday? euro-dollar flying, euro china, nothing. maybe that is the source of comfort for the ecb. a big move in euro-dollar. do not see the same way against china. ichael: i remember -- tom remember 1.22, we just saw discussion at 1.22 by european authorities. tomorrow, claims

jobless claims friday. we go beneath the headline numbers. michael feroli joins with jp morgan. definitive a number of years ago in calculating a shocking statistic for our potential gdp. before jobs discussion, do you have to reset your analysis of potential gdp after a pandemic? michael: that is a difficult question. there are aspects of the recent economic environment that would cause one to think potential gdp growth may be slower. then we have seen a nice recovery in capital spending. capital formation may be holding in pretty well. in the long run, given the demographic trends, probably trending down given slower growth in the labor force that is due to long run demographics, not necessarily the short run down we have seen.

tom what is the run rate on mom -- on nonfarm payrolls? what is your new run rate? michael: when we get back to a normalized state of the world, which could be many years, we think it should be under 100,000, which is to say the number of jobs created -- the days when we grew up when it was 200 plus are far behind us. lisa: we are up against a fiscal cliff and a number of people have talked about this idea that some of the other employment benefits are running out and will expire at the next couple of weeks. how big of a gap is there in your expectations for growth with an extension and without an extension of those benefits? michael: the cliff in terms of jobless benefits we do not think will be a severe as one we saw weakness when the $600

-- weekly federal pandemic compensation ran out. programst stake is two , pandemic unemployment assistance for gig workers and other employees who do not qualify for that, and then the other program -- most of the people graduate to state extended benefit programs. it is really people on the pua, and they were scheduled for only nine months of benefits anyway. i do notl be a hit, think it will be set as severe as what we saw over the summer. something that will be a priority in any stimulus talks. certainly we saw that in the proposal yesterday, as it should be. benefits like p, something the government has instituted in almost every

recession. jonathan: to turn to the ism that came out in the last 24 hours, a lot of people walked away confused. the number looked great and then the employment component was soft. they said "companies and supply continue to operate in reconfigured factories with absenteeism -- difficulties in returning and hiring workers causing strain that will likely limit future manufacturing growth potential." what you think about that quote? is that something that resonates with you about the prospects for the labor market in the near term? michael: certainly there were concerns -- getting back to the other question when we have the $600 weakness -- the $600 weekly bonus payments that was hindering the return of the workforce. with those behind us, we have not been here yes many anecdotes. i agree it was confusing -- we've not been hearing as many anecdotes. i agree it was confusing.

it has been a little bit confusing how strong manufacturing employment has been over the last few years. we have seen manufacturing productivity go down, which is pretty odd because generally we expect high productivity. over time we should come to expect slower manufacturing. i would not expect it all happened in one month like the ism. jonathan: do you think it makes it difficult to get a read on payrolls this friday given what we heard yesterday? michael: it was building up before yesterday. we were getting different signals. is between consensus -100 to plus 700 or 800, quite a wide range. hopefully the adp this morning is somewhat correct in saying it is in the middle of that range. ism, this friday's

numbers trickier than it normally is. morningreat grade this -- a great grid this morning showing relative optimism, and then the street, the imf, and .he oecd are we too gloomy? michael: it depends whether you're talking about the near term or the medium-term. i would sayum-term prospects are looking good, certainly given all the news on the vaccine which all of the viewers are aware of. if we get something like the bipartisan stimulus deal combined with a vaccine, that would be set up for a strong 2021, particularly as we get into the spring months. you're talking about the near term. we could be in for some pretty rough months, particulate

december, january, given the surge in the virus following the thanksgiving holiday and what that could mean for activity, particularly in consumer services. if you have a short-term view, i think there are reasons for gloom if you look beyond a few months i am quite optimistic on prospects. lisa: tom is just trolling me at this point, saying are we too .loomy and having you way in we keep talking to people about the potential for scarring. there is a question of how many -- of how much people are accounting for this in their models for the future beyond the next couple of months? where are the pitfalls in terms of what people are pricing in? is there weakness that will be more persistent than people are accounting for? michael: this gets back to tom's question about gdp.

there will be some scarring. theink the extent -- are looking -- relative to expectations -- when it comes to permanent unemployment, people who consider themselves probably unemployed, that has not moved up as much as i had feared. we are still depressed on labor force participation. if we had strong growth next year we can hope to bring those people back into the labor market, but i think there are reasons to say the jury is still out. what i would say is there will be scarring. the degree might be less that i feared. jonathan: great to catch up as always. michael feroli of jp morgan looking ahead to payrolls friday. payrolls friday just around the corner.

486,000 is your estimate in our bloomberg survey. 638,000.ous read, still decent numbers. deceleration. that is the takeaway. wild churn. the idea we are still getting claims around 700,000 is amazing. tom: if i've learned one thing, the pros love high-frequency data like the bloomberg consumer confidence index. i would suggest claims is very valuable because it is out weekly there is something about the weekly data. on the radio, this works. i am taking my hands and squeezing them together. lisa: on tv it works too. done -- claimse have gone down moving average, roughly 700,000. jonathan: for our listeners on radio, it does not work on tv. [laughter] the story as we are still close

to 800,000 for the improvement people hope to see towards year end. it is not there and claims and we have difficult weeks ahead. tom: we heard in interviews where people are suggesting the vector may have a left to it. day.you go on to jobs because of the arduous sabbatical i was on i am not up to speed on jobs day. i have to read in. jonathan: start with the estimates. we have just on that. you get prepared. payrolls friday two days away. i missed you. i did. i mean that. seriously. i missed you. we can have a moment. lisa: for our radio audience, tom is flying -- tom is crying. tom: radio, help me. a draw is un-american. you do not play for a draw. jonathan: we wait to see who

they will play in the fa cup. you have a little read and we can talk about it in a couple minutes. tom: it is un-american. you do not play freight tie. 0-0 celebrate. jonathan: we are talking past each other. have a little google. tom: on what? fa cuup? jonathan: tottenham. this is bloomberg. the first word news, i am ritika gupta. for the first time i coronavirus vaccine will be available in a western country. regulators in the u.k. have approved the shot made by pfizer. doses of the vaccine are regular -- are ready for delivery from belgium. in the u.s., an fda panel will meet next week to discuss the vaccine.

president trump reportedly has discussed whether to grant pre-active pardons to his children, his son-in-law, and his personal lawyer rudy giuliani. according to the new york times, the president has told people he is concerned the joe biden administration might target is three eldest children and giuliani. the white house is not commenting. the senate is expected to vote to advance the nomination of christopher wallace to the federal reserve board. that is likely to lead to his conversation later this week. wallace's research director at the st. louis fed. mitch mcconnell has not indicated of trying to revive president trump's other nominee, judy shelton. her nomination was blocked two weeks ago. walmart is investing to boost subscriptions to its membership program during the holidays. the world's largest retailer minimum on the $35 online orders to get free

shipping. walmart has reported online sales have boomed during the pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. . am ritika gupta this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i have always thought about what the next chapter in my life might be. there will be posed to disney soon.

giving back in some fashion, serving our country in some fashion is something i would consider seriously. the words of bob iger, walt disney co. executive chairman. you can watch the full interview on the david rubenstein show tonight at 9:00 eastern time. from london and new york, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up later, we will catch up with dan suzuki. equity marketsr, at all-time highs into wednesday. tom: dan suzuki, always interesting. looking forward to that, particularly with the bullishness we saw from goldman sachs. i talked about this a moment ago. this is important for global wall street and all of us where the data is a blur. michael mckee's expert at this. he is bloomberg economics and

policy correspondent and he joins us this morning. e. is a high-frequency mckew we treasure weekly data, don't we? michael: we do and we have. the problem is it is so hard to measure. we do not know what data is telling us what. the high-frequency data telling us things have slowed down in october and november as the pandemic has re-accelerated. you look at numbers that came out yesterday, not a lot of change. market pmi for the month went up. you have to take any kind of forecast with a grain of salt. one interesting thing i want to point out to you. tomorrow will be here at eight: 30 talking about jobless claims. the government accountability office found after investigating the jobless claims numbers are not accurate. there is too much duplication, too much fraudulent claims, so

they will start putting a warning label on the jobless claims numbers saying you cannot take them at face value. tom: this is important, and i missed this because of my sabbatical. brief us on this. there is a question about accountability of claims. i do not know who is wrong and who is right. what do they do going forward beside slap a label on it? the labor department can only report what the states reporting, and the states are struggling to get accurate counts, particularly in the continuing claims areas where they are adding up numbers and you have duplication in many areas and the numbers get skewed to the upside. economists have started discounting claims, but they still get a lot of attention in the markets. it'll be something to pay attention to tomorrow when we get a warning label on them. that effects everything else. i know you love to talk about skew. if you look at the forecast for

nonfarm payrolls, the high for friday.770,000 the low is -100,000. the range is enormous because people do not have a good way to make a forecast. lisa: especially when you have warning labels on the data. let's move past the headlines and look at the trends you've done a good job of highlighting come in particular the temporary layoffs from the permanent layoffs. what sense do we have of how that is shifting at this point? michael: michael feroli was talking about this and it is something economists are watching. the number of people on temporary layoff or reported they were on temporary layoff was high at the beginning of the pandemic. that number has come down as people of gone back to work. you saw in the 83 figures -- in the adp figures. thousands of people went back to work in october. we will see asay

significant change in that. the question is how money people are going back to work and finding there is no job because the company is close down because they cannot be viable without customers. that is the permanent job losers. the relationship between job losers has been rising. temporary job losses has been falling. it is something people have been watching closely. the other thing people have been watching our wage pressures. michael: no real wage pressures. the majority of people in the category of laid off has been people at the lower end of the wage scales, waiters and waitresses, retail clerks. those numbers drop out. it looks like in the data we are seeing wages go up, but that is not what is happening. it is just a mathematical change because you are taking out the denominator.

we do not have a good read on wage pressures, but at this point because there are so many job losses, nobody really thinks there is a wage problem. tom: i believe it was you who came up with a quote, when the facts change, i change, in economics. i look at an unemployment rate of 6.8%. where the deficit hawk republicans change their tune? do you need a double-digit rate to get them going or is it a different statistic? i'm not sure it is a particular statistic. the numbers will probably not change so drastically it would influence the political calculation at this point. washington is so fixated on my tribe versus your tribe that the good of the whole is hard to see them addressing. surprise, theyme

might react. -- tom:: michael mckee michael mckee up for a pardon from the president. michael: for all of my bad behavior. tom: for your question to chariman powell. michael had a question. lisa was on vacation. question and there was just -- as jay powell tried to figure out how not to answer michael mckee's question. michael mckee working with us on all the bloomberg economics. i look at the data and is it a resilient tape. lisa: you are seeing a resetting and people trying to factor the vaccines coming in and the increased chance of some sort of support package getting passed before year end. tom: i agree. lisa: i think that is a game changer. terry haines is increasing his

chances of getting something passed to 25% from 10%. not great, but still an increased chance. that would make a serious difference for markets. tom: bragging rights from what we had earlier. a pragmatic president-elect and perhaps an even more pragmatic republican senate. so much to talk about. futures -137.ow jonathan has harped all day on fx. i want to talk about the blended pacific rim currencies and the idea of adxy, the currency pairs in the pacific rim ex japan. you get a real look. that index is pushed out towards record highs. that is something worth watching. taking the headlines. euro 1.2072. euro-yen, 126.28 as well.

stay with us through this morning on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. good morning. ♪

♪ jonathan: from new york and

london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "the countdown to the open." the countdown to the open begins right now. we fall back from all-time highs. we begin with the big issue. pressure building in washington with infections continuing to rise. numbers forcing state and local officials to issue new warnings, potentially increasing restrictions ahead of the holidays. this coming with rising prospects for another stimulus package. jay powell urging lawmakers to provide additional support despite the recent vaccine developments. onir powell: the recent news the vaccine front is very positive. nevertheless, we have a long way to go. what they need is a grant to get them through this last bit of the pandemic rather than borrowing more through federal reserve facility. jonathan: secretary mnuchin calling o