from t cheomfort of your own home. visits are confidential and affordable. need a prescription? your doctor can send it to your pharmacy or have it mailed to you. get the healthcare you deserve at goodrx.com. ♪ >> i'm caroline hyde. >> i'm joe weisenthal. >> let's get you caught up and where you stand. rollout concern for the of covid-19. >> what'd you miss? >> you might be a bit by staff or that latest headline from pfizer. 60 million is a number we always knew about, but we forget about

what was earlier in the day in the labor market data. 5.5 million is well above where we were pretty covid. continuing claims still elevated above where they were a year ago , putting a dampener on the recent equity rallies we have been seeing in the dollar, part of a broader move across anancial markets to price in brighter economic prospect for 2021. fromased interest republicans, raising a chance for a deal by the end of the year. underneath it all, is the job weket losing steam and can wait for stimulus once again? joe: we will learn more about the job market tomorrow and talk about it more later in the show, but in the meantime maybe, maybe. the stimulus is going to happen. there seems to be some convergence among a handful of players around the deal, somewhere in the range of 900

billion, gop senators picking it up. what's unclear is whether mcconnell was into it, the white house was into it. the lindsey graham thing today, he thought the white house would get there but that is a significant amount of aid money if it goes out. inen how much it has held up the near term, it could have a very positive impact. romaine: that sounds like a definitive maybe, joe. [laughter] romaine: take a listen to what others had to say about this. for anyonebeen aside willing to see it, agree where we agree, make that progress, take pressure off struggling people, and then keep debating the areas where we don't agree. >> we all want to get something done and we are all willing to give to get something done. but the republican leader holds he's open toe hope

compromise. >> they are getting close. i want it to happen. i believe they are getting close to a deal. >> and you will support it? it >> i will absolutely. >> for more on the latest, let's bring in erik wasson joining us now. so many false starts. so much pessimism about whether they will get there in the end. does it feel different this time? are the stars aligning? >> the math is aligning a little bit. we are looking at 300 billion. if the gap is too small, the politics are still there and mcconnell is talking about a bill that is between $500 billion and 600 billion dollars and the democrats say the basis could be this 908 billion. side-by-side in the terminal

shortly, mcconnell isn't talking about any supplemental unemployment benefits above the state level. this plan would have $300 per week through march. neither of them are talking about those $1200 checks that people have been excited about and talking about. as far as the stimulus effect, this would be best described as a relief bill. the main piece that they agree on is small business relief, pandemic paycheck protection extended, a double take where people who had taken alone before -- taken a loan before would have to take another draw and then pay taxes on the earlier half. for small businesses, i think they have the best position in both of these bills, that's the area of commonality i was talking about. but if they pass that they feel they have no leverage to get the other things they want. you mentioned ppp, but

many feel it wasn't executed particularly well. perhaps without efficient distribution. do you think that will be able to be more precise this time around? think that the curve, once they had done it once, would continue to be better. but we continue to hear the issues of bigger businesses getting into the smaller and there are many ways to negotiate these businesses where we could see them again and there is a provision in the bipartisan to look at community lenders especially. there are ways that they could do this. they are working that out over the weekend and into the early part of next week and we will know more that point. the defense bill in washington, president trump has threatened to veto it. if there are not protections for

these tech companies rollback, where do we stand on the prospect of that? , the two thirds majority of congress could override a veto before trump leaves office as the house and senate are moving forward with these very popular programs and neither of those bills have been reconciled into a final product. it does not have this section 230 liability for tech companies . they are just saying they are going to veto it, but they have the votes. whether trump vetoes or goes if they runmotions, out of time for christmas it will pass on to the biden administration. >> we talk about these things in buts of the money dial, obviously there is more internal

language formulas about how that is divided up. what is your sense, is that the money that's a challenge or is it about other policy language contained there in that could be toxic to one side or the other? >> i think the conservative republicans do not want to see it go to state and local governments. they think it is an opportunity to cut benefits that they are overly paid to state workers and this is not acceptable to democrats. they have been looking for a much more generous payout, up to $1 trillion. that's the main problem and the main sticking point. the issue of supplemental unemployment assistance on the conservative side. the people when they are getting $600 per week were making more money to stay home. they are not satisfied with rolling it back to half. they wanted to go back to the state level. those are bones of contention.

it's more likely to be a more generous ui rather than state local. >> all right, eric giving us an update there on this budget and stimulus bills out there. of course we have to remember there is a big labor market report coming up tomorrow where we are at a stage where there are about 10 million jobs in the hole from where we were pre-pandemic. up next.ming this is bloomberg. ♪

all right, tomorrow is

of course the u.s. jobs report. the last one of the year. you are talking about 9.6 million jobs, 6 million people still on some kind of extended unemployment benefits. joe, it's going to be an interesting jobs are or. not nearly enough to take us out of the whole. joe: still a long way to go and related tong furloughs due to the virus versus ongoing weakness, you can see the curve there. core unemployment, which is more permanent layoffs, things that are not going to come back when businesses reopen, versus the temporary job loss on headline unemployment, it spikes hard and comes down. we have not yet really seen any improvement in sort of the real economics. just with anecdotal

evidence from caroline stein, the moment they have to work with restaurants for the service sector to find homes to get back to work and then we will all want to go to restaurants at the same time and the supplies won't be there. absolutely. let's bring over the chief economist from in deed, who put together a great outlook at the current state of the labor market. this tension between headline unemployment and core unemployment really seems to be a key issue and might determine how much long-standing damage there is. in your view, have we turned the corner yet on the core unemployment? has that been turned down yet or is it too early to tell? >> at this point it's too early to tell what will happen with core unemployment. some of it depends on what happens with the virus. treatments and vaccine containments are going to

determine what happens in the labor market. we have seen the huge decline in the headline rate as lots of people that were temporarily furloughed have gone back to work. but there is still a lot of underlying damage that needs to be repaired and the labor market . >> there is a lot of underlying damage and i'm curious, there seems to be a general assumption in financial markets that because a lot of the job loss was in the service economy, the switch is going to be a lot easier to turn back on, presuming we are going out there to restaurants and etc. what you think of that general idea and how much of an effect could that have in terms of recouping our losses in a pandemic? >> for some sectors it might feel like flipping a switch. restaurants and retail might be able to reopen and rehire pretty quickly. but there are other service sectors that will take longer to recover. arts and entertainment may take longer to recover. they have gone through more

severe damage. when it comes to air travel accommodations, there may be facilities that need to get restarted or brought back online. some of the sectors that were not as directly affected by the pandemic, some of those people can work from home. tech, finance, professional services, they will not reverse right away in a vaccine. those are sectors that hire more expensive people. they will wait to hire until there is more underlying confidence in the economy and that's an area of services that could still hold back in recovery. caroline: to bring it back to anecdotal evidence again, i can't tell you how hard it is to get back up here at the moment, often say childcare, my nanny isn't able to come in, it's been totally, i've been unable to get any kind of childcare day after

day. even with the support given here from another business, the supply just isn't there. from a childcare perspective i'm interested, when schools reopen, how has that changed? how many have left their jobs to give full-time to their children and where are you looking at disparities in the labor market? >> we see it very clearly in the data when we compare working mothers and working fathers, there's been a much bigger drop in paid employment for mothers than for fathers during this pandemic. we don't see the same gap for men and women who don't have kids. that's strong evidence that it's a lack of childcare and closures that have created the burdens that mothers bear the brunt of and have conflicted with being in these labor markets. that could change.

there is aoon after vaccine. of course, there are also people who might have been hesitant to work if they work and in person jobs. and are concerned about getting the virus. all of that could hopefully change soon after. joe: this gets to an interesting question. you obviously have access to a granular look at job opening data and you track that pretty regularly on your site. seeing, what about the length of time it takes companies to hire? are there indications from how long postings are staying up they can speak to the question significance of -- there's significance to labor supply constraints? >> some of the evidence comes from the kinds of jobs being posted. a lot of them have been more prevalent during the pandemic,

they tend to be quicker to fill, the types of jobs that help support the stay-at-home economy. medical technician, pharmacy jobs, warehouse jobs. as the labor market has shifted towards those jobs, away from these harder to fill jobs, we have seen a shift there. i mean i think there are some patterns holding labor supply back, but for the most part it's a problem of labor demand. not enough jobs rather than under filling workers. >> and what does that mean for wages? at >> for wages we are likely to iod of higher unemployment than before the pandemic. even with a vaccine unemployment is likely to remain above the 3.5% that we saw before the pandemic hit. that's going to mean lower wage

growth with numbers looking a little off. there are big shifts in terms of the appointment right now. the biggest job loss of course has been minimum-wage jobs. average wages have gone up more than they actually have. once those compositional shifts settle out, it will probably be slower wage growth because the unemployment rate will be higher than before the pandemic. >> as we reflect on these systems and how they differ from one country to another, like in europe where people were put on furlough but remained, business was given money to keep people on board so that they could just ring them back when they were able to open their doors again, but in the u.s. you have to lay off people for them to get their unemployment benefits, do you have any perspective on where the damage will be harshest in certain labor markets? when see this differently it comes to the differences in

the data. the huge spike in the u.s. was because of temporary unemployment and it felt very different in places where government relief was really focused on keeping that employer employee relationship intact. the biggest differences we have seen in terms of job posting is how much of the labor market ins people can do from home the types of national economies where there are more job sectors that can be done from home, that's what we have seen, a bigger d-up -- bigger decline in job posting. great stuff. i encourage everyone to check out your look at the labor economy. for --enback working weakening for a third day. we will talk about what's fueling the decline in the u.s.

dollar. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: "what'd you miss? so,? -- so, "what'd you miss?? " dollar, where the euro is in a 2018, i have kept your eye on this. >> i love it, it's very exciting. the u.s. dollar weakening a lot. look, the dollar is down but that's a good thing because we have a vaccine and optimism and an improving economy with the dollar spiking in march when things were bad. although down, it's not necessarily out. joining us with more insight is the bloomberg markets editor, mike reagan. are scared wen we want to hold dollars in things are good?

market, i the stock -- things look terrible when we are in isys mode. like we saw in march, that left side of the smile. but then as we come out of it, and granted we are not out of the crisis yet, but i feel we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, people get foolish about not just the u.s., but the entire world. you hear that in the equity space where people work foolish about the world african market, x u.s., causing the lower part to selloff. i think that is the phase for it now. it doesn't make sense to look at these fundamental drivers like

yield spread, they don't seem to explain it at all. even the seasonality of the dollar towards the end of the year like this, there's kind of a big demand for dollars towards i think itthe year, is very much kind of like a risk low for the moment. toequity markets all seem favor right now risk assets at the other end of that smile, whenever it occurs. do we get to a stage where we have to start worrying about the correlation working against risk assets? correlation, 128 days between the bloomberg dollar it's or the dxy index, basically the most negatively correlated to stocks in about eight years. , as far as risk

sentiment, it provides an underappreciated establishment for the stock market as well. obviously though the dollar speaks earnings for exporters, they are going to go up. you are right, though, that inflection point, when it changes is going to be key. that's anybody's guess when that will happen. caroline: michael regan, breaking it all down on king dollar. bitcoin? choices,have only two according to everything i read, it's the dollar or bitcoin. it's just one or the other. toaine: by the way, i want congratulate you on making the bloomberg 50 this year. joe: another list for me? [laughter] romaine: after this it's all downhill. caroline: it is a great list. sadly, joe is not number one on

it, but there are quite a few others. "bloomberg technology" is up next. romaine: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ in a land not so far away, people are saving hundreds

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