>> we are in a very serious environment. >> we have a lot to get through over the next quarter. >> the tea leaves have never been harder to read. >> these reports are getting overshadowed. >> what monetary policy can do most of lee is to support fiscal policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg live.llance," tom keene is away, he will be back tomorrow. 500, lisae s&p abramowicz, the story is pretty clear. more support for that bipartisan bill. lisa: it also shows the diversions between the

underlying economy, bad news being good news once again, with that idea for a 908 ilion dollar stimulus will back in washington, d.c. what are the fundamentals that matter, when do we have to see something positive in order to respond to it? ofell, it's the fundamentals 2021, pricing in that story later. if you are asking the stories of the fundamentals of the here and now mattering anytime soon, the data for this month, yes it matters for the policy conversation. we saw that on saturday. and meanwhile we do have other issues. those talks in brexit are not going that well. we have that, trade concerns, harder line tactics by mike pompeo. all of these things are factoring in but are being brushed over by an incredible

amount of fiscal support not only in the u.s., but in the european union. the deadline for the string -- stimulus budget deal today, there are some nations pushing back in the eastern european block. euro skeptics. the broader implication is that they will get something done with a bit of negotiation. on the u.s. side details of that bipartisan u.s. relief will are expected. the key question to me, and we keep talking about this, aid to state and local governments. are we going to get that? we can see those stocks pricing and right now. the cutoff date to register to vote in georgia, those senate runoffs are happening january 5. it's really important to see whether the composition of the senate will shift, the idea here being that if there is a democratic majority you could increase your expectations for an even bigger fiscal supports package or stimulus next year, john.

all really important points. 100 and $60 billion in state aid in that bill, we should all start to get some support around that story or are we playing politics? lisa, i struggle with this idea. they don't want to help what they call poorly managed states, but they are happy to help the airlines and give aid to what many investors consider to be poorly managed airlines for the last five years. lisa: that's a good point and i won't be weighing in on it, we will leave that to the politicians. there's a point here, how do you parse out a pandemic driven weakness versus a weakness that was already there? the fact that they are trying to do that is a no-win game. how can you get those aspects out? if you want to help, try to help. 7 we are negative about --

jonathan: this morning is a dollar strength story, and about 27 minutes we promise a brexit freezone for 25 minutes. in the bond market, two basis points, the yields just out to that new post pandemic shock high of friday off the back of a stimulant to make the stimulus happen. the fed meeting lest -- next week, jumping past the ecb for now, the fed meeting for this bond market is very much in place for those who don't believe that the fed will allow the yields to go high -- higher on the long end. how much could it selloff if they don't extend their duration on purchases? brilliant conversations for stimulus. i'm going to have to use that.

jonathan: you like that? you can have that, lee said out. i will take that bottle of wine when i am back in new york. steve shall road joins us now. eastern time it's become like therapy for investors in the audience after rattling through all the negative news and it has been the job of the investor to receive that therapy. all the stuff going on around us is absolutely dreadful, thinking about a better 2021. you went to, steve? >> what you have seen in terms of recovery is shocking with the number of people going back to work, retail sales, manufacturing, housing, you have an a lot of sectors of the economy a v-shaped recovery with a lot of stimulus coming. not just the fiscal stimulus and probably just a little bit more from the fed in terms of

extending duration and things of that nature, but the vaccine itself is in a norma's stimulus over the next year as we gradually get back to normal and that is what the market is looking through. that doesn't mean we don't need support for the parts of the economy that are in for it with these increased restrictions. that's about the right thing for the economy. the market as a whole is in a healthier place. and: i get this argument pricing in 2021 where we are looking past the pandemic. yet if we have already priced it in, what more can we price into drive the market higher? weve: lisa, i don't think are just pricing in 2021. it's a longer runway of growth. outside of 1980, 19 81, there are no real examples of double-dip depression since the great recession. these last 3, 4, 5, 6 years,

sometimes as many as 10. we have cleared the deck are -- and are in early cycles for 2021. but in reality you have to price in the idea that we have got a of recovery,rs expansion, and markets will respond well to that. tom, and i have been going through the same story for weeks, frustrated and sometimes board of the outlook. i wonder if the groupthink has become group action. are you worried about actual crowding? concerned,s you are is this just talk? steve: this is the scary part about the early part of a cycle. you will think you missed the whole thing. put it in perspective, right? small caps outperforming large in september by 10%, 15%, but they have underperformed for the

last five years, flat for the last two years. value versus growth, the performance you have seen their, it's underperforming by 15% of the first half of this year. we think it really is uncomfortable trade, around value, small-cap, international, which has started to show signs of life, and around dividend payers, which are going to into new over the course of the next year. we think they are still relatively early in their days. while it has priced through 2021, we don't think it has priced in longer-term growth trajectory. it being this idea of early and uncomfortable, uncomfortable to get in in the early part of the bull market, april was uncomfortable. right now can you call it early when we have a record high in andrussell, the s&p 500, the nasdaq? you looking at recoveries,

know that when we start early stage recovery, do we start at record highs? steve: we don't get their this quickly, but you can. of 1987.ut the supply you were back to all-time highs within a year of that incline and i can assure you, you didn't want to sell in 1998. you still had a marketable run until 2000. it can happen, looking at the last recession we went through, you went back to the all-time high in 2013 and it would have been easy to say that we are back to the all-time high. it's another six years after that. weno, i don't think it means are late because it is all-time high. it's just the nature of this recovery and the stimulus that we got that allowed us to get back to the highs so quickly. lisa: i was looking at morgan stanley's yesterday and one reason they are bullish is they

expect fiscal monetary policy to work together and expect the monetary yield to get up to 1.45 percent by year end. how long cannot go before it derails the equity rally? steve: i think it is a function of the economic context. if you are still in economic malaise or have slowing economic data with a surgeon yields because of expectations that the fed, that's something that's bad. if, on the other hand, you know, we are getting higher yields on the back of stronger, stronger economic data, more and more people going back to work and normal levels of activity, i think that's fine. right now the yield and the spreads are so low, so tight, it suggests equity multiples could be in the mid to high 20's. we don't need them to stay that high. -- up. there is room for with the market to be ok with that. -- steve, fun to

catch up. too early to say happy christmas? steve: no, take the opportunity this year. merry christmas. jonathan: enjoy the holidays. steve, thank you. promised i wouldn't do this, i'm going to break that promise. in the eu they will be holding a phone call at 5 p.m. with boris johnson, 5 p.m. local time. i feel i am obliged, i have to. i don't want to cover brexit for the next 20 minutes. lisa: but i have to. i understand that -- but i have to. lisa: i understand you don't want to, but it really is a story today. for the next year, two years. a story because they are talking and because "the son" reported this -- sun reported that these briefings have an audience, the headlines have an audience and the audience isn't necessarily the

british public or the european public. it's the other side in the negotiation. lisa: jonathan ferro is ready for 2020 to be over. jonathan: i'm ready for the brexit negotiations to be over. everyone is ready for 2020 to be over. sterling, starting the day with a one pleat -- 100 and 34 handle. coming up later, jc draw ho of ubs. >> i'm richter cooped up. getting on board with a bipartisan 908 million dollar package for coronavirus relief, they told fax -- fox news that that they are a member of the group pushing the measure. reports, rudy giuliani has been hospitalized

with covid 19 in washington. he is reportedly getting great care and feeling well. giuliani has been leading the efforts to overturn the results of the election. in china exports jumped the most since 2018 to a monthly record high, underlying how global pandemic goods export is helping the chinese economy rebounded. another blow to the ute -- ,tature of new york city goldman sachs is planning to move to south florida, operating remotely, they persuaded leaders that they can move the jobs out of new york to save money. and this week facebook will be had by federal, state antitrust lawsuits. they have learned that there has been an abuse of dominance and a thwarting of competition, led by the ftc and group of state attorneys general led by new york.

global news 24 hours per day on air and on quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 100 20 countries. i'm richter cooped up, this is -- i'm rikta gupta, this is bloomberg.

>> neither have said we will sign your bill. that's a fair, we have final language, chris, will finally

come out this week, people can look on -- look at it and modify it as needed. but the indication i get, the pain of the american people is driving this and i'm optimistic those leaders will come on board. jonathan: that optimism is building. that was bill cassidy, speaking on "fox news sunday." , today.e is a way price action briefly this morning, another week of gains, two weeks of gains in the s&p, pulling back 12 points. talk this morning, reporting from us that the united states might be lining up to sanction more chinese officials. we will try to touch on that later. the euro-dollar, softer, weaker, going into the ecb meeting this thursday. bond market yields coming in after a significant remove last week.

the 10 year yield this morning, coming in to basis points or so. let's pick up where senator cassidy left things on stimulus aid discussions. kevin cirilli joins us now. how important is it that we see more and more signs of senators lining up behind a bipartisan effort? massively important. they run the ideological spectrum. candidly, it's why so many here in d.c. feel that there is optimism to get behind a fiscal stimulus bill in the lame-duck. people like cassidy and richard shelby, a deeply conservative member from alabama, to the likes of more moderate or centrist republicans like rob portman or susan collins, all expressing an interest in this. even secretary mnuchin and president trump having optimistic messaging from the white house. it has been a remarkable turn of events, falling between losey

looking at a shrinking house majority and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, who has really held strong in terms of the $500 billion number and as a result was able to get democrats to go below the $1 trillion mark. jonathan: within the bill as you know is 160 billion dollars in state and local aid. i think we will get more today on what's inside this, but i have heard, as you have, many have as well on the administration that they are uncomfortable with what they perceive to be poorly managed states. can you maintain that position given what's playing out across the country right now over the last several weeks? lisa: republic -- kevin: republicans say yes provided the price tag stays low. even beneath that, once it is released, i will be looking carefully at the text to see what lending, grant, and loan

programs there are coupled into this 908 billion dollar bill. many of the republicans i speak with are much more interested in trying to make sure that main street, businesses, even beyond main street, sectors heavily hurt as a result of this, like tourism, hospitality, and others, that they get some type of lifeline as we head into what will hopefully be the final months of this global pandemic. are: a lot of people viewing the proposal as a stopgap measure, a medium plan where another will be passed next year, but it seems that given republican pushback if there isn't a democratic majority in the senate it seems like it might be an uphill battle. am i reading too much into that? kevin: no, that's incredibly accurate. the united states is in a position to spend and spend big and the first piece of legislation in the lame-duck is

going to be that lifeline to get the economy injected with some more economic stimulus. but the second one, and this is where it gets interesting, you could see longer-term investments in stimulus funding as it relates to infrastructure, digital infrastructure, manufacturing, and a host of other lifelines that yes, the political argument will be made that to get the economy moving from covid-19, it is an toortunity for the country really look into the longer-term investment strategies and infrastructure strategies over the course of at least the next decade. lisa: yes, but we have been talking about infrastructure week, infrastructure year. here we are with pushback from a bill to provide a lifeline and i'm wondering, if the georgia runoff comes back with a ,epublican win, as many expect

does it seem likely that there will be an additional bill? or is that more uncertain than people are making it out to sound? kevin: it's much more uncertain, but based upon my reporting, if they are able to tie this to longer-term digital infrastructure, through the prism of national security spending, they might have a better shot. i'm talking about the incoming biden administration. they might have a better shot at luring those moderates to get them on board. look, i think that without question it's going to be another fight, but this is going to be based upon the public comments of the president-elect, the first political battle that he seeks once he assumes office on the domestic front. i want tokevin, finish on the current president who went down to georgia to campaign. many keep asking if it actually helps, he thinks that as he

continues to continue this through the courts, the current president thinks things should be legally overturned. does that help turnout republicans? kevin: many republicans based on exit polls who are much more supportive of president trump than they were of the republican party. but the unknown variable is whether or not his presence draws out progressives and the .ase in an opposite effect we will find out in january. and we wish the former new york city mayor, rudy giuliani, the best, having tested positive for covid-19. kevin, you know why i got distracted? another brexit headline, the eu seeing wednesday as the cutoff date for brexit deals. lisa? headlines are imagined, aren't they? just something that we imagine, that we all agree to,

and then they move again. think that there will be follow through on wednesday, thursday? i have no idea. lisa: you are getting existential on the brexit thing. headlines, they come out. i understand, there is something fundamental here, we have a december 31 deadline and boris johnson has to get a certain amount of political support in the eu is digging in its heels. it still is a real issue because there is a deadline, john. jonathan: is it wednesday or december 31? lisa: i get your point, that they keep drawing lines in the sand. 31st is the harder line. jonathan: is it? how many deadlines have there been over the last 4.5 years? it's a deadline? [laughter] bea: you are fair to skeptical. existential mondays with jon ferro. jonathan: good morning.

maybe there's a part of me that would like to see tom come back. i don't know. maybe i miss him. maybe that is what the mood is about. who knows. the pound, $1.32. we are down a little more than 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ - [narrator] this is kate.

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monday morning, live from london and new york, good morning to you all. let's get right to the price action of the morning with equity futures coming in at 4/10 of 1%, record high on the s&p, the nasdaq, and the russell. down to tenths of 1%, the nasdaq on a winning streak. i think about those eight days moving higher coming in at 1/10 of 1%. that's the equity market. switching to the bond market, you know all about the treasuries last week. the yield, up and away. the payroll, that's the nudge in d.c. to get over yield down. this morning, yields lower, the spread between the united states and germany, how wide can it get if the 10 year is going to be pinned to the floor.

end ofthat on the back 2018. is that what we are looking for again? in italy, how much tighter, wider, tighter in germany can it get? the portuguese tenure last week zero. 60 basis points off the all-time low from earlier in the session. people see it even tighter in germany given what's happening on the periphery elsewhere. let's finish on foreign exchange. is, sterling,e it intraday, cable gapping lower off the back of a tabloid report from the sun newspaper, reporting that talks could and within hours it goes from 1.34 to start the session down to around 100 3280, just a bounce off the low. it really is that exciting, just

a continuation of what we have been talking about, except i'm told this time it matters. lisa: in the scheme of human history this morning, existential mondays will get less existential. we have more from brussels, the european union is set to see wednesday is the cut off for a deadline. going to jonathan ferro's point about these artificial deadlines that keep coming up to go to the players into agreement, what is the reality right now of brexit negotiations? number ofre a ailments and issues to keep in mind. first, the talks are ongoing and the situation is very fluid. then you have the object, this needs to be seen as difficult. everyone here needs to be perceived as fighting high -- fighting hard for their country, a political decision, not a technical one. we understand that at 5 p.m. there will be a call between the

head of the european commissioners that could set the tone for the talks going forward . we also understand that from the european perspective they don't believe that the prime minister is going to -- is close to walking out and they believe the talks will continue through wednesday and after that there will be a summit in brussels, in person. angela merkel, macron, they will all be in brussels and the decision could get made. i will stress that this is fundamentally a political decision. europeans need to make a decision that they can trust the u.k. going forward and the prime minister needs to make the political calculus that it will pass the brexit test about taking back control and sovereignty. actualn: what is the deadline? >> i would say it's friday of this week. we know that for technical talks that will probably be wednesday. there is simply too much to be done for a breakthrough to hours,over the next 48

that is what we hear from european diplomats with the summit happening here this thursday, ending friday, potentially going into saturday, seen very much as the deadline. on the legal basis there needs to be time for both parliaments to ratify this but the understanding is that once you get to an agreement, both will put it through in a vote. jonathan: europe has done it before, they could do it again. maria, great to catch up as always. is where the underperformance is this morning. lisa, the world has moved on with global markets and investors. i have said this repeatedly for the last few years, it was the global story of the markets for a month after the vote itself and it was a story for europe for the next few months and since then it has been a story from the u.k. -- for the u.k. and the world has lisa: lisa:

increasingly moved on. this because the u.k. is becoming increasingly isolated from other areas, talking about financial services and other areas, but in the scheme of pandemic, brexit just doesn't feel that big. jonathan: absolutely. it just doesn't feature in the 2021 outlooks that i have read, you have read, that any of us have read. jason has one of them. i guess a question for many of us over the last few weeks or so is what would it take to really given how ittite has been over the last month? >> it's news of the vaccine being sort of rolled out, leading to either herd immunity or a clear abatement of pandemic by next year. that's the consensus view, i guess, and what everything is bullish on for next year. if we find out in the next month

or two it doesn't happen in the timeline expected, that's the one thing that could really disappoint markets and on the policy front we have always learned the politicians can just move the deadline we have talked about before. that would be most disappointing to the markets at this point in time. jonathan: also as we know from experience over the years, nothing changes the narrative quicker than price. the breakout in 10 year treasury yields, we have been asking that question. what kind of level does it start to kick in at? where it really starts to take a punch at the risk appetite going forward? mind, have levels in jason? jason: 110, 120 is perfectly fine. it's that the level, typically, but the pace that matters the most. points, one94 basis point 3%, 1.4% in a few weeks,

that will take time for equity markets to digest and pull back there. but only if the fed for some reason is less dovish with itself, tantamount to a rate tension in this case. if it is more gradual with improving fundamentals, you can see the markets absorbing that reflux as well and it's unlikely you will see it get above those levels because what the fed will be concerned with is our financial conditions getting tighter and if it looks like it's getting tighter, you will see some languish from the fed towards it being dovish. perhaps u.s. equities will be resilient to a point but it raises the question of whether they can outperform and goldman sachs put out a note that in an environment where treasury yields are rising they expect international stocks to do better. tech stocks, other sales -- shares have done well in this

interest-rate environment, not necessarily doing as well when the yields go higher. do you buy that argument? we don't know what's driving that scenario. if the rates are rising because a situation where emerging markets in europe could do better than the u.s. the parallel is to the 201620 c grade. 2016 time the good old days of very low volatility and total return at 22%. but it was a year where the economy was going above trend and accelerating. a conducive environment for risk assets and equities to do well. we could be sitting up for something like that in six months. -- jasonou have heard jason, perhaps you have

heard that jonathan is existential today and he's not wrong about the groupthink coming from the markets in late 27 -- 2017 2018. does that worry you? jason: it would if we had bullishness combined with complacency. i don't think we have complacency just yet. where's the vix? it still above 20. that strategy, it is not near where it was in early 2018 with a look at the market melt up in january. people are definitely bullish. if we look at the landscape to see the environment of next year , a global environment of accelerating growth above trend, and that quadrant of your matrix that's historically best. fundamentals have justified a fairly bullish outlook. you think what could turn us bearish? well there's the pandemic comments he made earlier. i would be more concerned about euphoria.

we are not there yet. over the next couple of months as we get vaccine rollout, fiscal deal, georgia election out of the way and that political risk taken off the table, we get the market melt up from next year, to me that would be a temporary risk. other than that it is the positioning and overall sentiment that is bullish. that's the key. jonathan: euphoria is so much easier to identify after the fact. in the moment it's always these great stories to justify and rationalize why we are where we are. in 2018 it was that huge short trade that blew things up and i remember i think it was just one big payrolls report that undid things. people started to think about a different regime, breaking down into a different regime. 2021, anything like that in your mind? a regime change and what could spark it? the payrolls

number that exceeded expectations and an hourly report number that was better than expected until they got concerned of tightening in the market. on friday we saw the jobs number disappointing with bad news being good news. people expect more fiscal policy. as long as we are in that environment where people are looking for near-term weakness, what can change that are signs of the recovery not being completely on track. it could always be some other factor that we are not thinking of. we know that some of the exterior was forecasting pandemic with early signs of something going on in china. could be something along those lines. probably won't be 2018. the mission is there to that extent. but obviously we have to be clear that something could happen. six months to 12 months, fundamental elements look like they will be something that pulls back markets where it's a buying opportunity.

really deteriorating those fundamental environments and falling off significantly. jason, really great to catch up. futures lower today by 4/10 of 1% on the s&p 500. isn't that the story, lisa? the appetite to buy the dip is so strong there have hardly been any dips in the last month. lisa: isn't that the truth? the story of 2020. jonathan: coming up, from the northwestern university apartment for vented of medicine , their vice chair joins us shortly here on bloomberg. the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. javieren has chosen becerra to be his health and human services secretary. his job will be to curb the coronavirus pandemic and expand the affordable care act. he's a former congressman with

little experience in the health industry. william barr is considering whether to step down before the trump term ends next month according to "the new york times." the president was angered last week when william barr acknowledge that no widespread fraud was found in the election. apple is looking to outperform the fastest input -- the fastest intel chips as early as next year with engineers working on several successors to the m1 custom chip, their first main processor debuting next month -- last month. if they do, they will outpace the performance of machines running intel. universal is purchasing the entire bob dylan song catalog in what is described as a blockbuster deal, spanning six decades and including songs like blowing in the wind and the times are changing. universal has not said how much they are paying but people familiar with it say that the

dylan songs are worth more than $200 million. global news 24 hours per day and on quick takes, powered by journalists and analysts in 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we will not get out of this quickly. we expect to get close to herd immunity sometime during 2021.

for the major economy, that will change the mood. we expect a strong rebound. jonathan: we all hope for that. that was the ubs chairman speaking this morning. tom keene is away, he will be back tomorrow. price action, futures pulling back on the s&p 500, up by 4/10 of 1%. more assertive, stronger u.s. dollar. the euro slightly weaker. in the bond markets, the euro 9361, .93 seven, whatever you want to pick. coming in three basis points on the 10 year, the next big stop for this bond market has got to be the ecb meeting this thursday. they have communicated clearly that they want to focus on the duration that they will be in the market purchasing bonds. do you think the size of the package is what investors will

still be focusing on? to divert want attention, but what more can they buy? if they indicate emphasis on duration, will people get nervous that they are running out of room to purchase more debt? the 10 year yield is at all-time lows for this session. that's the bond market. more on this brutal pandemic sweeping the united states, we have the vice chair of the preventative medicine department . professor, thank you for joining us. by q2, all perhaps americans who want the vaccine could have access. is this the timeline you are putting into your models and thinking about increasingly as well? >> that is what i have heard, that by april availability of the vaccine will be such that everybody who wants it will

start to be introduced to the opportunity to get it. you have to keep in mind the two factors, how many doses do we have available and how can we get it out to the people rapidly. let's talk about the process of getting it. -- getting it out. where to be go after first responders and nursing homes? >> it's important to remember that. note behaviors, those are the individuals with the highest likelihood of circulating the virus in the population or spreading it. nursing home residents are in nursing homes. they aren't out there. it's the 20 to 39-year-olds out there who are spreading it. what it means is that for the long game we are looking good when we can get this rolled out, but for right now the behaviors can't change.

the -- lisa: this is the question, right? how can we best distribute to prevent the rampant spread that many are predicting? >> what i would like to see our discussions of essential workers who are delivery drivers, front page -- front facing pictures -- people in stores being eligible early on. for a large proportion of those workers, those individuals, their income isn't as high, they are not able to socially isolate themselves and don't have large homes to spread out. those populations are often at highest risk for the most severe outcomes and hospitalizations. it would be ideal to see that population in the next round.

jonathan: we have had months to roll this out, that's the good news, but how long before we have to go back again for another shot or vaccination. i understand that with pfizer you get one shot 21 days later another shot. what is your immunity like after that should mark how long is the immunity -- after that? how long is the immunity? >> if i knew that i would be taking a lot of money. we know what we know and we don't know what we don't know. i'm not sure about the answer of how long one will remain immune. the information stands to come out at the time when they published their trial results. right now they are getting emergency use authorization. we haven't seen the final reports and hopefully there will be some hints in their. jonathan: are you worried about the duration it might be? do you have a range in mind? i apologize for putting you on the spot, but we are all sharing this hope that by the middle of next year we will have society to a position where we can rollback these district --

restrictions but the big worry from people would be that if we have to do this over and over again quarter after quarter to make sure it lasts, that would be a much bigger effort. do you have a timeline? remain hopeful that this particular vaccine, unique approach to vaccination and how it targets the virus, that it will not be like the flu vaccine . so, the flu virus mutates quickly. the coronavirus doesn't mutate quite as well as the flu virus. however, and the way that these vaccines have been developed, there is something targeting something a little more central to the virus so that ideally this will last longer than one year. however, i haven't seen the final reports yet. lisa: i want to wrap up where we are in the pandemic right now, mercedes. hospitalizations

and icu units at capacity. how concerned are you about the worst aspect of this pandemic? mercedes: the worst aspect is you can always build field , but how will you staff them? as we use up this life saving equipment, we need people to run it. that's where we are really running short right now and that concerns me a great deal. the health care providers are burnt out, they are exhausted, this is emotionally and physically very draining. the best thing we can do is adhere to mask wearing and social distancing so that we can try to tamp this down. professor, we appreciate your hard work and contribution to this project. and lisa, the hard work is not over yet. soa: the people are soak -- sick of social distancing but how do you deal with restaurants

closing down because people can't go inside? it's getting cold, they won't be eating out. all of a sudden there are more job losses. it's going to be a tough winter, you can see it on the street. jonathan: official struggling with compliance. did you see the pictures out of london? oxford street, that's the story, people just getting out there and trying to get out -- get on with life and maybe from the officials point of view that's premature. lisa: but what is interesting to me is that right now markets are shrugging it off. people would look at the numbers and they would trade off the numbers. nobody cares. at what point does it tip the economy? at what point does it matter for people where they put their money? to small it matters businesses and i don't see what's going to rescue that if people cannot leave their homes. jonathan: the markets, not much were now.

-- right now. up next, morgan stanley's director of fixed income research on the year ahead. got to get through december, first. if you are familiar with the crowd, we will get into that next on this program. this is bloomberg. ♪ businesses today are looking to tomorrow.

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>> we are in a very serious environment. >> it's a lot of bad news to get through in the next quarter or so. >> the tea leaves have never been harder to read. >> these reports are getting overshadowed. >> what monetary policy could do most importantly is support fiscal policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: four four our audience -- for our audience world ride, i'm jonathan