>> from bloomberg -- romaine: tash caroline: from bloomberg headquarters in new york and london, i am caroline hyde. romaine: the nasdaq pushing onto a fresh record. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: the narrative continues with all eyes on the recovery and what can be done to

maintain that particular story into 2021. with a year for growth, or will it. jobs report paints a picture that more federal stimulus is the key -- the key component to making this narrative stick and talks over the $900 billion andemic relief bill ground to halt. any keyuggle to reach agreement. today we expected to get the details on the plan, but that was postponed for the sum of 24 hours or so. we wait with -- postponed for 24 hours or so. comeback willic be dependent on further push from stimulus. joe, it is interesting -- today there was a little more risk aversion in the market -- we went into that age-old trade that is big tech. joe: big tech -- that is something, even on the so-called risk off days, it just means buying tech stocks that are

doing phenomenally well. that is what counts as a down only tech0, when outperforms. absolutely. the breath is incredible. look at the number of stocks and the nasdaq composite surging, a straight line up. some of the highest levels we have seen since early 2014. 100e are stocks above their day moving average. pretty nice when the down these mean you are up in tech. someou are starting to see folks making further bets on economic recovery. sachse heard from goldman they are expecting 5% growth. this petition a 5% drop. you are also seeing other folks, out and say this could be the play for 2021.

if you're looking for some to rebound, dividend stocks could be it. taylor: for more on the market action, let's welcome in katie -- how are people thinking about down, the final chapter of the year? rine: you are seeing more momentum build around the inflation hold that has taken hold and continue to two december p are taken a bit of a breather, but when i talk to money managers in the market, there is still a lot of optimism over -- when they look to 2021, where active managers could get an edge, there's a lot of hope you will see more different -- differentiation within the sectors. maybe they will look to shine. of course that is taking a wobble today. it goes back to the stimulus

tug-of-war -- the $900 billion package that is in talks right now, that is kind of slowed as congress hashes out the 2021 you arepending bill. seeing some steam, out of that, but when i talk to money managers there does seem to be a lot of optimism. romaine: katie, -- caroline: katie, what is priced in? is the recent rant up based -- ramp up based on getting stimulus, or can it be sustained without it? it is interesting. when you think about the russell 2000 and the rotation trade i mentioned, there are two big ingredients -- the vaccine, a breakthrough if we get a viable vaccine that is distributed broadly. we need a bridge to get us there. a lot of folks are penned on fiscal stimulus and when that comes. it looks like that bridge will be delayed again. you are seeing some of that euphoria, out.

when we are about what is priced in, it feels like investors keep trying to price in the reflation trade. s etf is a most 900 billion you do get the sense that investors are really eager to put their money behind this trade. we were talking about the treasury yields and the potential to get above the 1% mark and what that would mean. if there is a bet on the reflation trade, bet on yields going higher, if there is an expectation that maybe the fed would try to contain that, are those opposing areas here, or can they work together. katie: you could get higher yields about the fed responding.

another has been talk about 1% and what it could mean. financial conditions that not tighten all that much. there was not a lot of strain in the system that could force the fed to act. bloomberg had a great article maras.the 2021 inflation you could get a jump in section -- in the services sector. it will be hard to maintain that inflation jump without a tight labor market. if forecasters do generally expect inflation to rise, but in this average targeting regime, unless it stays there with a well, you will probably not see a fed very ego -- eager to contain that. romaine: a lot of consumer spending to underpin that pat you have 18 days to get gifts for caroline and i. right here on this program, we'll talk about that stimulus

plan -- still waiting on it. why the recovery of the economy is very unlikely until a bipartisan deal is made. ? we will dig into that. coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: today we are focused on the economic recovery and what it means for investors. a lot of folks are looking to washington, d.c., to see if there will be another round of stimulus, joe. it is like watching paint dry. joe: i think it is riveting -- maybe watching that is riveting. we are expecting to get more details, nothing really going, i guess it is moving as fast as paint drying. still something expected in the range of $908 billion, but talks have slowed with all kinds of

issues of liability, state and local aid -- all the same issues with no deal still causing there to be no deal. romaine: -- guys, it is way faster than brexit compared to paint drying. it is completely frozen. meanwhile, catherine mueller will have more for us. talk to us about what is predicated on the big stimulus deal, particularly from the economic part of the equation. catherine: thanks for having me on today. one thing we do is track the economic recovery from the kp w restoration index, which was an index we created to track weekly changes to a number of different data points. we tracked 13 different data locations, workshop on implement, air traffic, rail traffic -- we have been really bullish on the recovery from this index. it started at 100 in february.

hit a bottom of 50 in april when we were at the depths of the lockdown, and it has been a slow ared down to 79, where we last month. we have been bullish and that has tracked the financial stocks in the markets, but one thing we are keeping a close eye on recently -- again, to your question, this is why we are focused on the importance of the stimulus -- our index has fallen for the past five consecutive weeks in a row, and this past --k you saw the big decline because the client we have seen since april. 7974. romaine: how are they waited --romaine: are there things they look at that maybe drive changes in the others? i look at mobility is a big aspect of it and i feel like that feeds into everything. if we're not leaving the house, there is not going to be any economic activity.

catherine: for sure. it is equally weighted. there are 13 different data points equally weighted. it is interesting. this past week, out of the 13 data points, 10 where negative. the three that were positive were airport traffic, retail sales, take into account black friday, and also jobless claims. of negativeeeks data points on jobless clams. jobless claims actually had a positive week. everything else was negative. if kobe cases were higher or we all stayed home because it was thanksgiving week. but ours and employee work declined. i think it is a combination of thanksgiving week. joe: i am curious think in about

it from a client's perspective -- people looking at the data. we have seen so much interest in the last six or so months or now data real-time data, open and mobility data -- do you think this crisis ends? a permanent shift in how people look at the economy were people will not accept waiting, or the weekly initial claims report or jobs report and want more real-time snap shots of the time of what is going on in the macro situation? i think so. it has been helpful for a spin we are financial analysts and we are financial analysts and we're looking at it through the lens of how to recommend financial stocks to our clients. for us, we were waiting for gdp data that we only got monthly. so we are using this as a gauge. we are very excited about the

vaccine, hopeful that there is stimulus, but there is also a truth out there so we are trying to balance the excitement around stimulus with the negative trends that we are seeing that might be real. romaine: with regards to the potential uptick we might see that the market is expecting here, is this something you will be synchronized among that of points, or will they be a little uneven. catherine: i think it is uneven. you can see in these two weeks the different data points move -- especially the past week with thanksgiving you saw that as well. you take that to some of the data points that really rallied throughout april through october, you know, it was mortgage applications that were very strong -- retail sales were very strong. mobility got better in the summer months. that drew back recently.

it does fluctuate week to week. one way we look at it is we break it into four different categories -- mobility, commercial, and unemployment. that tries to show us within those categories what is performing better in what is lagging, and the two broader categories that have lagged since april have been, as you would expect, unemployment and mobility. those are the two biggest factors where we are looking to beforeimprovement recovery. joe: thank you. our thanks to catherine mealor. coming up to mirza and you may have messed with some of the newulus talking -- apple's mac processor drying your reaction in the market. intel falling as the company expands its move into chips. you will be discussing the next. this is bloomberg. ♪

-- ine: now to something you might have missed -- joe was talking about it, apple and its new chip. joe, you did not miss it. joe: no club because i read bloomberg's fantastic reporting on apple's chip plan and that is indeed the stories, intel shares fell a little bit on the trading desk during today's trading on this news that apple continues to expand its chip ambitions. getting a lot of impressive reviews. potential a big game changer. romaine: for more insight, let's

bring in stacy ragson. stacy, this was an announcement a lot of folks had been expecting -- the promise of what apple seems to have put out with regards to performance --how real is it? stacy: i think it is real. i have seen some of the reviews for the current chips, but it has been getting rave reviews. it looks really good. i think to your point, i was a little surprised that the news filled today was seen as a surprise because the m1, the current chip -- it is just the beginning. apple said it would be a two-year process, and they would not be improving -- there was no way they would not be improving markedly over the next couple of years. caroline: it feels like the pace of them improving it is what caught people off guard. stacy: the other thing you need to remember, apple has been working on this for a decade. it is not just like they just

dove into the pool. they have shown significant improvement -- improvement in every generation of the chips. is current m1 they delivered sort of a glorified ipad processor. i presume that is the bridge product. i am not surprised the next generation, the second generation, is where they are bringing their firepower. joe: stacy, obviously we think about with chips, intel, and this 86 architecture -- the history that you have the chip company, your assembly computer company, they buy the chip from intel and so forth -- will this be a fundamental change where there is some advantage to a company being horizontally integrated like this, make it the computer, -- making the the chip the box, and

with its own needs? is a something reshaping how the industry works? stacy: maybe. we seen it with apple and samsung. this is been a controversy for a while. apple is the furthest along primarily -- you mention a number of factors. the chips, the hardware and the software -- i think it is a semiconductor and the software that together form the platform. apple has full control over all of those aspects, and it absolutely is doing wonders for them. we will see how plausible it is for other players within the space to do this were actually -- maybe that connection is not as tight. else, apple is showing it can be done and showing the potential of what is actually possible here given non-86 architecture. agoine: you said a moment

about how this has been something that has been a decade in the making. a lot of people look at the decision intel made more than a decade ago to sort of focus on those faster processors, not really focus on the mobile devices, which needed less attention with regard to speed and more attention to power consumption. that caused apple and a lot of players to start their own designs or research into this. this has been, sort of, a slow-moving train for intel. i'm wondering why we did not see when itke a move sooner became apparent this is the future of computing? stacy: santa tracker you are right there has been a controversy. -- they did try. you are right there has been a controversy. there was a comment from the famous ceo who passed away, they were given a chance to be in the iphone and they turned it down and they said they were wrong. the cost to produce it was a lot less than they thought they

would be in the volumes were 100 times what they thought it would be. --sa, if they thought obviously, if they knew that, they would have done it. were late, is they and apple had run away with the premium side. all that was really left was the low-and and -- low-and, in the parts were so deficient intel was paying people to take them. if you want to talk about the peak mobile system, in this quarter, they lost $1.1 billion on minus $6 billion in revenue. after that, and frankly, they have gotten out of that -- that is one thing the management team has been doing to clean things up. they missed the boat. at that point it was not possible to catch it anymore. does anyone gain in

particular -- i'm thinking of the chip designers. arm is busy, gobbled up by nvidia. stacy: the more apple could gain it would be a positive for anyone. rm goes, apple has an architectural license, so they use the arm instruction set, but it is the apple custom design built on that set. apple has a phenomenal group of semiconductors. they are some of the best of not the best in the entire industry. joe: really appreciate your perspective on the latest news. our thanks to stacy ragson, . -- a bnalyst at a

bernstein. lots more there. romaine: you have another show? joe: i'm sorry. i apologize. go check it out. romaine: great podcast. i listened to it all the time. caroline: how could you? traitor, dabbling with other cohosts. it really is amazing the diversification we're getting from apple. it feels like just today, tech is a big winner. the matter what, apple will continue to outperform. joe: is that a call -- will we roll the tape a year from now and say caroline's call from a year from now? caroline: no investment advice here. romaine: that is a nice back drop. robbins a -- robbins a blue.

caroline: i try. the airbnb pulled it out of the bag. romaine: living large. "bloomberg technology" is up next. romaine: ted a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ wanna lose weight and be healthier?

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aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco, and this is bloomberg technology. coming up in the next hour, airbnb and doordash boost their prices. the doordash valuation would be double where it raised funding in june. we will look at how investor appetite is shaping up. flag could salesforce and catalyzed a wave of ns