ae rotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. lose weight, look great, and be healthy. go to aerotrainer.com. that's a-e-r-o trainer.com. >> we are in a very serious reach real environment. >> the tea leaves have never been harder to read. >> the vaccine itself represents an enormous stimulus. >> i'm worried markets are getting ahead of the politics. >> what monetary policy can do most importantly is support fiscal policy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." thrilled you are with us. we do the markets here on bloomberg television and bloomberg radio. they are pushed aside today by

the history of a moment back to march, when we all said, when will there be a vaccine? it is now. the symbolism that it was not some fancy person, some elite in the united kingdom or the united states or the continent of europe. it was a 90-year-old grandmother in coventry. describe what it was like when you saw the headline. jonathan: it's a wonderful thing. the first vaccination taking place in the united kingdom, and the first step in a massive effort that is about to take place in the months to come not just in the u.k., but potentially in the united states as well. this headline crossing the bloomberg in the last five minutes or so from a report from the fda that will be used for the advisory meeting taking place in today's. the vaccine was found -- in two days. the vaccine was found to be safe. so we have the recommendation for approval in the u.k.. the vaccinations have started. we are hoping the same thing will happen in the united states this thursday. tom: there is the hope.

it is not buy the rumor, sell the news. it is buy the hope. what do you see in the market zeitgeist about it is here, then what? jonathan: doubling down on the story of last month and extrapolating it out 12 months. that seems to be the consensus view. the rotation, the cyclical story, the economy reopening. we are out to q2. that's how long this is going to take. we rolled out this vaccine, get enough people in the at-risk group vaccinated to a point where we can roll back some of the economic distractions -- the economic restrictions. it is not playing the game of q1 next year. tom: i learned with there was a time when amazon was really struggling. i learned that bonds matter. what is the credit market telling us right now?

ign high-yield, away from full faith in credit, what are the specs we have seen? lisa: i wonder how effective the signaling is when you have the federal reserve, the ecb that suppresses yields, suppresses borrowing costs to all-time lows. we are heading any all-time low on junk bond borrowing costs, 4.3 4% is the average yield. just to give you a sense, that is lower than the average investment grade yield over the past two decades. i don't know if we are getting a signal there because there's still a lot of pain, but what it is suggesting is that we are going to get a recovery and we are going to come out of the other side. jonathan: even on the cusp of vaccine approval, we had to get a lisa rant in on high-yield credit. lisa: honestly, i think the good news is baked in. if you look at the market response now, you're not seeing that much really of a retracement of the losses.

jonathan: tell us what you really think. tom: i respectfully disagree. i think this is such a momentous occasion that good news baked in or not really doesn't matter. lisa: oh, i agree. i just think that at this point, , this iso jon's point all fantastic news. i don't want to undermine that. there are just still questions, and that is why you are not necessarily seeing buy the news. tom: how about this? lisa, she doesn't know what she's talking about. tom, i don't know what i'm talking about. jon, he doesn't know what he's talking about. bring in our guest who actually knows what she's talking about. jonathan: michelle porter joins us now, bloomberg health reporter. walk me through what we have learned in the last 20 minutes or so. michelle: we have just received the food and drug and minister

ration's staff report -- food and drug administration's staff report on the covid vaccine, and we have seen the details of the findings of the trial. everyone is hearing the 95% efficacy rate which is great news. a fact, what they give is range, and they say that on average, they are thinking about 95%. in fact, it could be over 97% effective. more significantly than that, there are things like they are getting fewer adverse events in older people, very unexpected. normally older people are more vulnerable, so you would see more harm in those kind of people. we are seeing some evidence about what might happen after just one shot. tom: is it politicized right now, or is it a political -- or is it apolitical? michelle: the food and drug administration has been clear

they will not allow any politics to come into this process. they are speaking with the way they do it to the political dismay of some folks -- for example, requiring this advisory committee hearing. what we are talking about now is into days, we will have an outside panel of experts weighing in on this entire report. some people are saying, why do we need outsiders? let's just get it done. there are no terrible side effects we are seeing. the efficacy is very high. why do we need to have other people weighing in? look at the u.k. they've done it. let's go. the fda is saying not only that, we are not going to cut any corners here. we are going to do it all correctly. we are going to issue an emergency use authorization, which means we are going to allow people to use it, but you approval,ally have and we can pull it out if we have anything bad happen, so they are doing every

bureaucratic detail here, just at hyperspeed. lisa: let's get a sense of what this means for thursday's meeting and beyond. what are you looking for to determine their reticence to move on beyond emergency use? of we arein terms going to start rolling it out when an emergency use comes. the panel is going to recommend for authorization on thursday. we are not thinking we are getting for the weekend without a decision from the fda, so on monday i thing most people are thinking we are going to start seeing some distribution. what they are looking for in this document, 92 pages, executive summary. ofre's tens of thousands pages of the trial. did anybody have an unexpected side effect? did anybody develop some kind of multiple sclerosis, cancer, heart attack?

did anything happen that could potentially be harmful caused by the vaccine? they will dig into every cycle possible risks that they have found in this trial of over 40,000 people to see if there is any indication here. so far, it has been 20 minutes. i haven't seen anything, but i can only read so fast. jonathan: if you get it complete soon, please come back and fill us in if there are any gaps. michelle cortez of bloomberg on the latest from the fda, as it looks like we might get that approval a little later this week. tom: we will have to see. what is the timeline here of and always say for the union -- of an always safer united states? that has always been the history here. let's get to the markets, and maybe that folded to the vaccine. christopher grisanti is with us of grisanti capital management. the s&p 500, back to the great

trend coming out of the financial crisis, is exactly one standard deviation up. is the market extended? chris: i don't think so. that might be a contrary opinion, but i think the market is looking through what will be a very dark winter. i think deaths will continue to rise, maybe double the amount that they are now. 9/11's every day through january. that is going to be a tough period. but it makes victory in evitable, but there is still a lot of fighting afterwards. but by spring, jonathan was saying in the second quarter, i think the market is looking there, and i think the danger by the end of the year is that the market gets too hot. we see the fed start to back away from its foot to the floor. tom: to me, the great lesson of this horrific 2020 is that

corporations adapt and adjust, whether it is lvmh and tiffany in that luxury back-and-forth or any of the other stories out there. have you been surprised how corporations have adjusted to the realities? christopher: definitely, and of course, that is a great sifting mechanism to judge terrific management from mediocre. those who have been able to adapt to survive, and those who haven't, don't. so what we are looking for, the 2020 will not be winners in 2021. that's what we're facing right now. that's where we are directing our research. jonathan: i don't think i will never forget sitting in that studio with you earlier this year when you turned around to the three of us and said you guys are too downbeat, and it was february, and i think stocks were near all-time highs. a couple of months later, i think it three of us were right

for about five minutes to be downbeat on the market, but it didn't last. i just wonder the take away from , to keep thate confidence in financial markets despite the ugly death toll in the united states and worldwide. lessonpher: it's been a for all of us, and i hope it is a lesson we don't benefit from in the future, and a sense of we never go through that again. monthe did in march a after i was incorrect about it being not as bad as we thought it was going to be, it has dramatically changed for those countries to protect their margins in a tsunami of losses and dislocation. now the problem is that those terrific,have done but i suspect they will not be the winners of 2021, so we are directing our research towards

what if things get not just good, but almost too good. we will see record gdp for generation x year, and we suspect that will provide its own set of dislocations. so i would expect investors to be on guard for that. lisa: you said the worry is that markets make it too hot or that the economy may be too good. let's talk about the market being too hot by year-end. what does that look like if you are seeing short interest measured by goldman sachs? christopher: i get what you are saying, and i don't necessarily disagree with you, but when you are coming out of a deep drop, and we haven't had this steep a , thingsce the 1930's always look expensive as you , but i would agree with tom that you are underestimating the recovery. on yourd have 8% you're

growth in the fall, something we haven't seen since the 1960's. all of a sudden, folks aren't going to own enough equities. i think that is where it gets dangerous, because it brings back the specter of rising rates , so that is what i would be on god for next year. -- on guard for next year. jonathan: chris, thank you. right for a lot of the year, and i think that if the story. christopher: absolutely. [laughter] my crystal ball is no better than the next guy's, but we adapt quickly. that is the key. jonathan: i appreciate your time, as always. that is chris grisanti. that has been the story. we have touched on it so many times over the last 12 months or so, the ability to be nimble, to be quick, but also divorce how you feel from the world around you from your own analysis. tom: the great distinction to me

is do you want to be in tech or not? credit has that bold call that basically tech is still where it's at, and they've got other interesting things as well, but a lot of people are saying leave tech and go other places. who knows where that will be fourth of july? jonathan: have you and lisa made up, then? have you sorted things out? tom: now. lisa: no. jonathan: when me and my siblings used to argue, our mom would put a cereal box between us. always go for the rice crispies because it is just a little bit taller. tom: doing the whole gluten-free breakfast thing. lisa: no i'm not. eggs and toast. chalula. jonathan: that's what you have

in the morning? ok. do you make that at 4:00 a.m.? lisa: we can discuss this. [laughter] jonathan: do you have alcohol, too? lisa: depends on the day. tom: sometimes two, sometimes three. jonathan: tom's trick is to not go to sleep, but just keep drinking. lisa: i'm headed there. jonathan: we are -0.4%. i really do hate "the crown." this is bloomberg. [laughter] ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it will be the biggest immunization campaign in the history of the british national health service, and one the world is watching. a 90-year-old woman became the first woman in the western world to receive a coronavirus vaccine shot today. people over 80 were first in line for the vaccine from pfizer and biontech. in the u.s., the fda is out with its review of the pfizer

vaccine. it says the shot is 95% effective in preventing the coronavirus. the fda could issue emergency clearance. british prime minister boris johnson will travel to brussels -- to try toxit negotiate the brexit trade deal. he will speak with european council president ursula von der leyen. both agree that a deal is far off. tesla will sell as much as $5 billion of common stock. shares are up almost 670% this year. they have been boosted in part by the decision to include tesla in the s&p 500 starting december 21. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there is great hope for worldwide distribution. fullyelieve the world understands that you can't solve this problem just in north america or south america or europe or asia. africad to solve it in and europe and every continent in order to bring this pandemic to an end. jonathan: that was michael milken, chairman of the milken institute. good morning to you all. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. live from new york and london on bloomberg tv and radio. here's the price action for you this tuesday morning, about one

hour and 12 minutes away from the opening bell stateside. futures down 14. we bounce off the lows, off by 0.4%. the bounce coming off an fda report suggesting that the pfizer vaccine was 95% effective, and the stars are aligned now clearly for emergency use authorization. we could get that approval this coming thursday. 0.92 46% is your yield. tom: any number of topics to speak of in washington. sliet now, as le vinjamuri joins us now of chatham house. xpporters figure out there's number of slots and way more than x number of people who want those slots. how do you manage? what do you do when you only have so much high visibility

cabinet and jobs, and everybody wants to climb on board? dr. vinjamuri: especially in this situation, where people thought they were coming in with hillary clinton, they have been waiting in washington. certainly there's a lot of whorate republicans probably would have liked with president trump, and that is not happening. it is rumored that we are seeing the secretary of defense nominee coming soon, lloyd austin, who would be the first african-american secretary of defense. 43% of america's active-duty troops are people of color, so that would be symbolically very important. biden is looking ahead, thinking ,bout having experienced people plenty of those on offer, but

balancing women and gender and race in all of the things that have been central to his campaign. tom: because of his age, because of the pieces it is perceived he is picking up from president trump, is his first year the honeymoon, and after the first year, if that timeline unique? dr. vinjamuri: usually we think about the first year or certainly the first 100 days being a honeymoon period. i don't think we can even conceive of american politics in the same way anymore. there's a lot of dysfunctionality, and now we are looking at the tragedy of more than 2000 americans dying every day, the virus not under control, the need for economic recovery is very significant, when the vaccinations will be rolled out. there's no honeymoon for the --o that's for the biden honeymoon for the biden team.

those january 5 elections in georgia will determine who so i thinke senate, it is moving ahead very quickly with beginning to get the agenda up and running. i think we will expect a number of very significant , with january 20, into thee u.s. back wto, possibly back into the iran nuclear deal. if congress, if the senate is not in his hands, i think china perhaps to foil getting aid to mastic agenda on

the basis that we need to be competitive. jonathan: this sounds like what we have experienced over the last few years. do you see a big difference between the approach of this administration and the next administration on the issue of china? dr. vinjamuri: absolutely, you're right that people want to be tough on china. nobody wants to go back to free and open trade and thinking that china is going to change, but i think we will see a different approach. we are going to see a tougher approach. we are going to see a biden adminstration that is going to push on structural reforms, on market access, all of those things we have been hearing about, but not seeing a lot of movement on. and of course, as we have seen with the appointment of tony blinken and people who care a lot about the democracy question, values questions, blinken talks about

techno-democracies and techno-autocracies, so that question of technology, the standards and rights and norms that surround the use and exchange of technology is really one of the key items that the biden team is going to take on over the next four years, but even in the first year. jonathan: leslie, great to catch up. we appreciate your time, and i'm sorry it is sort. headline crossing the bloomberg couple of moments ago. the united kingdom to withdraw the brexit lawbreaking causes in the government bill. i will translate that to digestible english if you haven't hold of the story. ,he government is pulling back it seems, an olive branch to the europeans. europeans abide by international law. that is the story on the pound. the u.s. dollar, as you were, tom. maybe this brings us closer

together to try to get a deal. tom: i went to the google search on what this means for parliament, clause 45 and this. phrase like "to supply the obligation," i don't think any of us understand the nuance and the paragraph by paragraph details these people are dealing with. some of it to me doesn't even look like english. jonathan:jonathan: some people here do. i rely on guy johnson to translate this for me. guy is very good at this. he's spent the last four years following every single turn. guy get set. -- guy gets it. tom: but because of the pandemic, we have to frankly to supply the obligation of which is, at 10:00 a.m. in new york, there's a lodge football game. liverpool and the tots. they are playing on your

wednesday afternoon. jonathan: you are skipping something important, tom. what happens tomorrow? what is important about tomorrow? tom: i can't. i have no idea. it will be the queen's birthday in 24 hours. are you coming into work tomorrow? lisa: what is your birthday breakfast? tom: another [laughter] [laughter] cup of wonderful bloomberg coffee -- another cup of wonderful bloomberg coffee. [laughter] lisa: is that what you are having? jonathan: a bit philosophical, but is it breakfast if you never slept. does it count? lisa: what is breakfast? jonathan: what are we doing? lisa: jon ferro going fully existential. jonathan: we should all just cover a different story simultaneously. tom: of course.

it's entertainment. other.lk over each that's the pitch. we haven't signed off on it yet. they keep letting it happen every day. i don't know if that is tacit approval. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile,

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jonathan: honestly, the things i have to deal with on the show in the commercial break. tom keene asking me about "love island." equities pulling further back from all-time highs in the s&p 500. had nasdaq upper performance of last couple of days. nine day winning streak on the nasdaq 100 back into tuesday. a quick snapshot of the bond market going into the ecb on thursday. the ecb on thursday all about the duration of the program. that is what the policymakers want you to focus on. push back iny will the frankfurt's conference we get. we will bring it to you live . ,ields up, then yields lower then yields unchanged today. 10 year treasury, .945%.

will the fed allow the yields to go much higher, even if you think they should, will you get a green light from the federal reserve? foreign-exchange, all about sterling the last 10 minutes. cable gapping lower than bouncing back. the pound against the u.s. dollar. the chart tells the story of the moment the headline came through. snap, 1.3364. in olive branch coming from the british government. -- better moodic music over striking a deal in brussels over ursula von der leyen and prime minister morris johnson -- prime minister boris johnson. tom: it is your opportunity, "love island," they are casting into january. jonathan: i've been going to the gym just to stay in shape so i

can go on "love island," become an influencer. tom: let us move on. we move on on radio and television as we can. we improve the conversation with james sweeney of credit suisse, our -- their chief economist. he has been in front on the idea is going to slow down. where is the other side? you have nailed the idea of a slow down, difficult labor economy. can you frame out in 2021 where things get better? james: i think things get better in q2, maybe towards the end of q1. industrial production terms, we have had a big swing. , industrial for the period november is likely to be

in line with slumps. has the labor market, that no longer rapidly improved, which is something you need when you're short of where you were a year ago. this is because there has been another wave. the lack of stimulus. the deterioration in disposable incomes has been a major problem. -- toproblem should start go away. jonathan: a bit of disruption on the line with james sweeney. james, what we are going to do, we will reestablish the connection. hopefully we can get you on the phone and get a cleaner line and pick things up where we left things off. the story at the moment is not just about predicting what this economy looks like in the coming months. parts of the economy are in different places already. we talked about this with -- we will talk about this with emily roland of john hancock next half-hour. tom: i am glad you mentioned

that. jonathan: that is the plug. housing looks late cycle. housing looks late cycle. the labor market looks early cycle. a lot of the different parts of the economy are not aligned. tom: this is my final conversation with the late and giant alan melzer of carnegie money. understand int this society how you can aggregate, and he was he did in his defense of aggregate statistical study. i think you're right. in this pandemic, i do not understand how we can aggregate. the polarity among american economic society, we have never seen this in our lifetime. jonathan: this is a really important conversation. lisa, you and i talked about this recently. the markets have not traded on the disparity, the markets traded on the aggregate number

and that is what has been uncomfortable about this experience. we are all human beings and we live in this world of disparity. it is uncomfortable. the market does not trade on that. it is trading up the aggregate numbers. lisa: there is also an uncomfortable truth that the biggest companies are doing better. the idea that the big are getting bigger and they will benefit even as smaller individuals do worse. that is tricky. , andight buy the pain these companies will still be doing really well. jonathan: another one that gets me is the savings rate. michael mckee has dropped by to catch up with us on this. great to catch up with you. our chief regulatory policy correspondent and all of the above on the economy. when it comes to the savings rate we hear economist say how high it is. who has the money? that is the story. the disparity beneath the headline number. that is the key to understand

this economy. michael: one of the things that has become clear is the idea of a k-shaped recovery is true. therelks up at harvard, is a project that tracks alternative indicators. they are showing pay rates and job retention rates show the people in the upper income levels have basically cruised through the virus and are sort of back to normal. the people in the lower 50% are still below where they were. the people who got the checks originally and spent them right away do not have it in savings anymore. there is still a major issue as the virus hits and more people lose their jobs. very interesting data yesterday from the bureau of labor statistics. they surveyed american companies from january until the end of september. 51% of american companies told workers to stay home and not period.ing part of that

58% of those companies did not pay their health insurance. not only were people losing money, but they lost their health insurance at the same time. tom: we are thrilled to have you join us on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene. with us is michael mckee. james sweeney with us. we will go on inequality. james sweeney, have you ever seen this new pandemic need quality in america? is it original? james: inequality is certainly not original in america. i think the cares act was very progressive. the problem is it only lasted a few months. , it was cap.oyment the level of income that receive the stimulus checks. the stimulus checks were large if you had a low income, but the problem was it was a one-off, and a lot of the extra unemployment expired, and the job hits were concentrated for lower income individuals.

what is interesting is not the inequality, because that is not new, but the fact that you had a brief stretch of great cash flows for low income people during trying economic times and you swung rapidly towards tough cash flows for low income households. whiplash forl like the finances for a lot of americans. lisa: a lot of people have pointed to the fiscal cliff coming up. the data coming out of the consumer has been stronger than many people had expected. the decline in unemployment benefits is not had as big of an effect on spending and other metrics. what you make of that? do you think people are underplaying the legs the stimulus effort had earlier this year? james: i think they are overplaying the retail sales data. we have seen strengthen durable items, sporting goods, cars. the actual consumption of gdp is

to third services. it is services consumption. tourism and things like that. restaurants, hotels, where you are lower than normal levels. do not think goods, think services. the economy is doing worse in gdp than it is in the good sector, in industrial production and manufacturing, which is strange. what we're seeing on the consumer spending side is the same. goods not that bad, the services, horrible. jonathan: mike, can you add to the distinction james lays out? the distinction between services and goods and those two sectors? michael: that has been the case because you cannot spend on services. we have seen a decline in service spending. people not going out to restaurants, not being able to go on vacation, a lot of people not flying. more money has been spent on

consumable durables than on services. the question now is when do we start to see it go back the other way. you may have satiation on the durable side. how many refrigerators will you by? how many tv sets? we may see a period in which we are not seeing either because you cannot spend on services as more counties get locked down. people do not need or want anymore durable spending other than businesses that still seem to be stopping up. it'll be interesting to see over the christmas holiday how many , onle spend on services events, travel, that sort of thing, compared to the hard goods they buy. lisa: before we let you -- jonathan: before we let you go, james, can you tell us how big a package in d.c. you are

factoring in at the moment, if at all? james: we have been pretty pessimistic. will still be factoring in a package north of half $1 trillion, but closer to $600 billion rather than $1 trillion. if we had $900 billion or one trillion, we would regard that as an upside surprise. jonathan: great to catch up. thanks for your patience come into our very own michael mckee -- thanks for your patience, and thanks to our very own michael mckee. the language has changed for 2020 where we can say we are pessimistic about a deal north of half $1 trillion. tom: james sweeney has been way out in front. i go back to what matthew liz eddie has said. i said what is the all in blended unemployment rate, he did not miss a beat, he said 12%. the worst of the crisis was 10%. the clarity of who succeeded in this crisis is frightening.

jonathan: i will not forget that labor market report. remember -20 million, how could you forget? worse than that. what stuck out is that wages that day went up in that employment report. wages surgedd -- because the low-wage workers got decimated and fell out of the report. tom: mike mckee was great on that. there was a noise about all of the government stimulus and aid. where is that now to support consumption in america? jonathan: from new york and london, good morning. heard on bloomberg radio, seen on bloomberg tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. a 90-year-old woman was first in line when the u.k. became the first country in the west to offer coronavirus vaccinations.

the national health service calls at its biggest immunization campaign ever. boris johnson warned mass vaccinations will take time. the u.s. is now averaging about as many debts from coronavirus as it did during the april peak. the seven day average of reported fatalities went over 2200 on sunday. it is likely reported fatalities will increase even further. that is due to the lapse between infections, debts, and when the debts are disclosed. -- when the deaths. an african-american will be nominated to run the pentagon. biden will name lloyd austin as defense secretary. he was the first black commander to command troops in the middle east. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

liquidity lesson is -- i hope is companies were really think an optimal capital structure is and not price it to

perfection for the expected case , but will think more about the tail rest and what can happen. we are all seeing black swan events happening with alarming frequency. jonathan: the lessons of 2020 with all top men -- with paul tabuubman. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. in about 15 minutes we will catch up with emily roland, chief investment strategist at john hancock investment on the disparity in the economy. late cycle for housing, early cycle for the labor market. tom: that will be interesting. one of the things we have looked day, thes historic vaccine has been administered to a 90-year-old grandmother in coventry, england. right now, barry ritholtz joins us.

he has a podcast, masters in business. it is hugely successful. he manages real money. start, where i want to looking into next year. bloomberg has a spectacular article out today looking at ever lower fees for the asset management business. the news is even the low fee people like vanguard have lower fees. how low can the fees go? in some areas they are free, with the caveat there is no free lunch and free comes with a cost come as we have seen with robinhood traders, there is no such thing as free. you either float, or perhaps are not getting the greatest execution, or removing the friction of a commission allows for a lot more trading. that tends not to be a great

outcome. you will continue to see pressure on an ongoing basis. fees pressed. keep in mind when we look at the vanguard and the black rocks of the world, they are the fee leaders because their economies of scale are so immense they can do things other people cannot compete with due to their size. there are a lot of interesting niches developing. i will not say we are at peak passive index, but there is a lot of alternative types of investigation, where there is not the same fee pressure. is not as popular as it is because the fee pressure has not reached that space. tom: alternative investments, you have fees that are more opaque and you cannot see what

is going on. what is your trend for 2021? you have an industry going to scale? what is your vision for where we are a year from now talking about 2022? and easye lazy forecast is more of the same. at a certain point, the fee compression is going to become more and more difficult to exact a few more basis points. it is like pressure in any sort of fixed container. at a certain point, you can link compress it so far. we will eventually hit that point. the interesting thing is, to the average investor, back when you mutual funds were charging 2% with a 4% surrender fee, that made a huge difference over 20 or 30 years. let's be honest. what is the difference between seven basis points and nine basis points over the long haul?

that turns out to be pretty much a rounding error. high fees are not the drag on long-term investor returns that they once were. you should still be cognizant of it, you should be aware of it. the behavior you engage in is a much bigger cost than fixed basis point -- then six basis points versus four basis points. lisa: there is also a question of what value individuals at as managers. everyone is jumping on the same bandwagon. if you look at the consensus in markets, the strongest since late 2017. does groupthink worry you? the fascinating thing about markets is for most of the cycle, it is all groupthink and it works. the wisdom of crowds is that most of the time, the crowd is right. look at this recovery off of the

march or april lows when everyone was convinced we were going to hell in a hand basket. at extremes and at turning points, that is where the crowd is wrong. that is where groupthink does not take in and works against you. for 80% or 90% of a secular market move, the groupthink, the crowd, at least over directionally, tends to be correct. tom: greatly appreciated. barry ritholtz with us. we will do more on this looking into 2021. we want a comprehensive data check. lisa and i will dive in. it is fascinating, relatively quiet day. at some point that anne's. -- that ends. it can put up or cut down. is $1876, gold elevated

over last is go away. has: it is interesting gold become more correlated with risk assets. i want to go back to our flight from earlier. i want to bring it up because jon ferro is not here to stick a cereal box between us. talk about the market response to the vaccine news. we get a positive sense the united states will be giving emergency use authorization to the vaccine later this week. you have not got that big of a move in markets. 30 year treasury yields are down on the day, substantially, which would go against this. priced in, what do you make of this? do you think the markets are being positive with it? is uncertainty. as gina martin adams said, the great miss this year was how well earnings and margins did. she aggressively drove that forward into 2021.

it is one of those moments where people are just looking for guidance. i would point out always after the jobs report, you run into this. iseek after the jobs report usually a mystery. in that sense it is not unusual. i would say the key immediate attribute is the stimulus and any news on the stimulus. lisa: i agree. i think people are looking for the extra bridge. it is not just stimulus, it is how they put it out there. if they give checks to lower income individuals, that could get to the market for inflation. renminbi floating down today. pacific rim currencies are still elevated. adxy is buttressed against new dollar strength. today aboutalking his continued call of a weaker dollar. we continue across bloomberg

television come across bloomberg radio. futures -15. the vix showing stability. 22 for a sip of coffee. 21.84 on the vix. please stay with us on radio and television through the day. this is bloomberg. ♪

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london for our audience goodwide, good morning, morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. futures down .4% on the s&p. the virus versus the vaccine. the tug-of-war continuing. a new report from the fda staff calling the pfizer vaccine highly effective and calling for emergency -- and paving the way for emergency use authorization. americans remain diligent for the holidays. >> without substantial mitigation, the middle of january can be a dark time for us. coree time we get into the of the summer and into the summer ended of the third quarter of 2021, we should be in good shape. that is what i am hoping for. jonathan: hope coming in the form of the vaccine. huge week already underway. donald trump hosting a summit from the white house this afternoon intending to build coid