how do wages go up when? some people are out of work? >> the important thing to keep in mind as we are starting a brand-new economic cycle right now. >> there is going to be a lot of investment and spending. >> the stimulus is not there yet. you have a complete lack of coordination. >> the central banks have locked themselves in. >> it is not that we will not grow, it is will there be enough? >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. new york andm london, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" radio. bloomberg tv and tom keene with me. lisa abramowicz taking the weekend off. another uncomfortable 24 hours for the global economy. jobless claims in america going the wrong way. at the same time, that contrast

with the airbnb ipo -- get your head around that. claims went to wayward and then you had the ipo go where it went. tom: put two and two together here. lisa abramowicz, 8000 shares of doordash -- she cashed out on that puppy late friday night. really good conversation here on the equity scarcity that makes those deals go up, up, up. what i want to look at here is your bond space on the move as you and your entourage do the real yield this afternoon. you have got something to talk about. the two year yield in america has gone four standard deviations from top to bottom 330, a lowerean, . u.s. yield. jonathan: where did it start the year? 1.60. why is it here? the fed took it although i down

to zero, and they are staying there. that is the anchor at the front end of the curve. i say check out the 10 year yield in italy, in march, april, we almost saw 3%. now we are at 50 basis points and an ecb committed to being in this market with maximum flexibility all the way into 2022. jonathan: i believe -- tom: i believe it was the former head of the ecb saying -- all in all, in the conversation, it is how unusual is the nominal yield. tom: -- jonathan: record lows in europe. good morning to you all. equity futures coming in. 29, 30 points, down eight times of 1%. i am not sure you meant to say that is good. foreign-exchange, euro-dollar, 1.2120. , at two basisield

0.8882%. at one point, we were a little under 1%. the gravity of the market at the epicenter of this universe is the german ten-year. tom: i totally agree on the pivoting around the german dynamic, the two year yield negative, 0.73, really has not broken down. woulde number one thing i look at, and i hate to say this -- i am over promoting -- this show needs promotion. the real yield this afternoon. look at that statistic on the 10 year inflation on just the yield. -1.0127. and that is moving ever greater negative. jonathan: both a complement and an insult at the same time -- an -- andpliment an

an into a same time. dean curnutt joining us now. do we have a scarcity of assets right now? a reallyhink it is important question. it sits at the center of the debate we are having in terms of how to invest in 2021. you have $18 trillion of negative yield in that. deficit, so5% u.s. these bond vigilantes do not seem so active anymore. and yet the force of pricing in the bond market, perhaps it is demographics, perhaps it is the ecb and the fed doing what they're doing, anchoring short rates so low and sometimes negative, but it really matters. it really impacts the calculus for global investors, and where it shows up most is in the corporate bond market. iswe round out the year that 2020, a never say neville year -- we printed negative 27 front

month, made an all-time high in the vix -- the corporate bond investors, you have the lowest starting point for treasury yields we have ever seen an incredibly tight credit spreads. the nominal yield environment for both the ig investor and the high yield investor is unappetizing. as you referenced airbnb and doordash, which is a $50 billion valuation, you just have to wonder what the side effects are of monetary policy. perhaps it is a scarcity of safe assets, but it is forcing people into a decision-making process that is leaving head scratching valuations. jonathan: let's talk about the scarcity of income, of safe assets, forcing people to go elsewhere. there is nod alternative, pushing people to places where they do not want to

be. what i've experienced the last couple of weeks and months is people are struggling to get a read on this market. we saw it on doordash. we saw the reaction from the airbnb ceo on bloomberg tv with emily chang -- when he was told where that stock was about to trade come he was shocked. how many people do you speak to now have a struggle on reading what is going on? dean: so many people. it is a tricky environment to foliosfully look at the -- difficult timely for eking out income for 60 percent of the portfolio, and i just do not think we should forget how big of a tailwind the 30 year to 40 year rally in u.s. treasury bonds has been for the overall equation of putting money to work.

as well, there is a tremendous number of questions to be asked around the efficacy of rates in a portfolio. that stock pond offset that we have seen pretty consistently throughout episodes of crisis, thee duration rallies on risks out of the portfolio, it is an open question as to how efficacious that will be going forward. it makes it very tricky. as people do their review and outlooks this year and look ahead to next year, what we are saying to macro risk advisors, especially people on the corporate bond side who are trying to use credit as a way of managing risk and generating return, there are some really interesting things to do in the equity derivatives market. it is the one market untouched by the fed. they have not acted directly in that market. so risk premiums on a relative and absolute basis are fascinating to look at. tom: what is so important here is trying to figure out how to

we -- how we exit out of it. none of this is in our textbooks. it is nothing more than an ipo equity.-- scares it is also the bond market and the rest of those dynamics. what are the first and second derivatives looking like down the road? is it something that can be contained, measured, and profited by, or do you look at it as one great instability? one, greatk at it as instability. the unfortunate part of this, i believe, and as i talk to policymakers, they all say the fed is captured. the exit is nearly impossible. just give in -- again, where we have moved pricing in the safe asset. the capacity to actually raise rates, even in the midst of inflation, will be potentially so disruptive to the risk

complex, it will be very tricky. , oftentimes, where the rate of changes in the market, where the gamut is in the market, and as i stare at the price of a 5-year note and look at the implied volatility on that, it is as if the fed is promised to the market, in the market believes that, that these rates are not going anywhere five years. that could be the case. but remember, we do have a vaccine, and it is a very strong vaccine, and we have in ration rising. toxicis a real, almost mix of uncertainty, i think, and it makes it tricky. -- and this is a little fancy for friday, but we are going there. you have to re-hedge. if we start whatever the trend is and you are setting up in your hedge your cactus of the markets, the bottom line is you have to affect a re-hedge with stability or instability.

is it a real risk that global wall street will not be able to re-hedge because we are moving too fast? important is an point. the markets move for a lot of reasons -- monetary policy, geopolitical risk -- but sometimes, the markets are beholden to the trades that live and breathe within the market. in the world of options, what has been -- you mentioned doordash and airbnb -- this forever for tech stocks, this rampant speculation we are seeing through this retail arm of the market that is really powerful. a lot of it is playing out in the options space. options, in part, were imposed on the market place this need for dealers to constantly re-hedge. oftentimes, the stock goes up because someone bought an option that requires someone to her by the offsetting star carriage. that, is a driver of volatility. it is difficult to really know

how big these numbers are, but there is no doubt there is a risk of the market essentially ganging up on itself as a result of this re-hedging. jonathan: the tail is wagging the dog -- we just want to say thanks from all of the team -- thanks for the contribution through 2020, it a difficult year for so many. dean curnutt, macro risk advisors ceo. we talk about central bank policy as if it is a temporary distortion for maybe a year or so. i think many people are starting to have the conversation as to if this is just a fundamentals now, you have to accept it, and it is difficult for many to accept. to 2022, 20 is up 23, according to christine lagarde it i would say expect the unexpected. what is the unexpected within this quiet at the zero bound? it will be out there. i would say, as we beat up on

airbnb and doordash, their capitalization is a fiction. they put out very little equity, and there has been a frenzy for that very little equity. 10% ofn: doordash, shares sold, airbnb just 8%. we are talking about the unexpected. let's talk about the expected. secretary a's are telling abc the u.s. fda -- secretary azar telling abc the u.s. fda will grant vaccine emergency use authorization. from london and new york, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> this is bloomberg. the u.s. is one step closer to getting a coronavirus vaccine. say the vaccine's benefit outweigh the risks.

meanwhile, a warning from reddish prime minister boris johnson. he says business and the public should prepare to leave the european single market without a trade deal. he says that u.k. will continue but -- an agreement, disney is predicting netflix style growth for its services. an onslaught of programming, disney plans to spend up to $16 billion a year. and authorities in china detained a bloomberg news fan was seenhaze escorted out of her apartment. a spokesperson for bloomberg says the company has been speaking to authorities to find out more.

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more time, we will take more time, but we have to have a bill, and we cannot go home without it.

i have to believe the administration and the republicans in the senate when they say they do not want to shut down government. jonathan: if we need more time, then we will take more time. the words of the speaker of the house nancy pelosi. do they have more time? that is the question we should be asking officials down in washington. from london and new york, good morning. alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz taking a long weekend. we are up 7/10 of one percent. thattary azar indicating pfizer could get fda approval for emergency use pretty soon. that is good news going forward. tom: good news going forward. and you look at the screen flow of the secretary, he has been busy out on media, conveying the message. and i am sorry -- in the old days, it is like you take a

lovely celebrity like lisa abramowicz and line her up to take the vaccine and you take photos and move on. how hard is it for the president of the united states to say i want to be first? he goes over to walter reed, and he and the doctors and nurses get the vaccine to show confidence in it -- i do not understand why we will not have that conversation. jonathan: i think we will have that conversation as soon as we get the emergency use authorization. how do you keep the faith in the process for the public? that is a big effort here in the united kingdom, and it would not shock me to see that in the united states. it makes sense. tom: let's drive it forward with kevin cirilli. part of the problem with the theine and ruling it out is finalization of getting the vaccine out. are the distractions of washington -- help our national

and international audience. how distracted is washington about the president leading at 1:00 a.m. about this up in court? kevin: to be candid, not that distracted. with regards to the conversation you are having, the national ad council, founded in 1942, will be crucial in the rollout of getting the trust of the american people to trust in the vaccination process. in fact, there is a group of bipartisan lawmakers who are calling for there to be increased funding in the omnibus bill which could be lumped with fiscal stimulus which would launch a national campaign from the national ad council to get the trust in the vaccine. i was struck by this one former presidents obama, clinton, and bush all put out a public statement saying that they would get the vaccine, all three of them together, to again try to show trust in the process. jonathan: let's talk about the

process in the talks that have been going on since june, july -- we talked about several different deadlines, at the end of july, and now we are having a conversation with recognition, more broadly, it may be the new year when these guys have to get together again in the real prospect that congress could leave washington without a deal and go home for christmas. the comments coming from rank and file members is only scratching the surface of the anger that americans feel, that lawmakers were not able to get to a deal. forward, based upon conversations i had yesterday, i would suggest it is a coin toss with regards to whether or not there is a fiscal stimulus between now and the holidays. but if this has to wait until

january, it will only further embolden the incoming administration that they feel they have the upper hand. and also, senate republicans who feel they are staring down the brink of a party that is starting to question more loudly -- though they have always been questioning it -- the fiscal responsibility elements of these type of matters. tom: if i go down route 150 out of louisville south to bardstown , and also there is a springfield, kentucky -- how is this playing in the land of mitch mcconnell? does he have the support of the people of kentucky in this delay? kevin: yes, he does. tom: why? kevin: because similarly to how these fiscal negotiations were not a driving force in the november elections, they have not really been a driving force -- fromiorating support

individuals abandoning their respective parties. as a result of that, republicans feel that they are essentially on the cusp of a similar revival of tea party elements of fiscal responsibility. tom: brilliant that you bring this up the way you do. if this is a reaffirmation of the tea party, what is the price to the rest of the nation? kevin: look, i think that is the biggest question here. to more moderate republicans come over the past two weeks, where they suggest is that they are willing to spend more money as it relates to stimulus, especially if it is going to be linked with more national security elements that they feel would help better position the united states against china and other foreign adversaries. it is a catch dynamic right now, push and -- it is a catch-22 dynamic right now, a push and a pool, which is incredibly frustrating at the staff level

-- i thought you covered this well. they have been having the same conversation for months, and there is a frustration on the left that we should allude to his speaker pelosi may have cake elated her political cards -- may have she miscalculated her political cards in the sense she thought she would be stronger in the lame-duck session, and that is not true. jonathan: and the news from secretary azar that americans may start getting the vaccine monday. but before you can really wrap that up, scale that out, there could be several months before you even think of route moving economic restrictions and helping to get people back to work. we have been talking about this for nine months. the problem i have is the same old story -- and you just mentioned it. if liability protections won, it is state aid two. -- too. you accept both up at both to one side.

leader mcconnell is there on that very issue. he has said that repeatedly. the person who has not is speaker pelosi. speaker pelosi, i think, needs to make a decision. either both or you put both to one side and pass what you can. kevin: and the reality of the political landscape that speaker pelosi finds herself in, based on my reporting, is in the first 100 days of president biden's administration, republicans are signaling they will be less and less likely to feel the need for there to be additional fiscal stimulus support. the first footnote in this conversation, to use a neutral word, was between secretary mnuchin and the central bank. that support that secretary mnuchin received from senator pat toomey and other mcconnell orbit leadership was indicative of a coming fight which is

republicans are not suggesting they will spend more for years to come. 8 -- $853. what are they waiting for? this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

jonathan: from new york and london, this is "bloomberg surveillance." this is the price action this friday morning. we pull back just a little bit, dan 7/10 of 1% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, we had a week of losses. the russell heading for a sixth straight week of gains in small-cap america. that gain could be talent this morning. that could be challenged -- challengedould be this morning. the center of the universe right now is the german ten-year now. the yield is around about -64 basis points. to keepingmitted financial conditions loose and easy for an extended period of

time. this is yield curve control by any other name. that is what this story is in europe right now. everything is gravitating towards the 10 year in germany, 55luding in italy, about 24, basis points. spain, earlier this morning, subzero on the spanish 10 year. where does that leave the united states? around 80 or 90 basis points right now. this is really important. how far away can a 10 year treasury at away from this? yesterday with a downside surprise, leaving for the team at bloomberg economics to look for negatives in the month of december. tom: and on a friday, that dynamic that the dynamics are important. the german 10 year yield, we are nowhere near the march negative

yield from march in germany, but other than that, we are on the cusp to breaking down to an ever greater negative yield. we need to get back to first principles, and there is no one better than that at frances donald, the dangerous excel sheets at manulife. give us the updates on the 1,erican economy this q4, q and into the fourth of july next year. frances: it is not great. we are heading into a very soft patch, something that looks like a double-dip on the services component of the economy. i agree with bloomberg economics. there is a chance we see a payroll fridge on the -- how would the markets trade that? maybe they have a little bit of a step back as they focus on the longer-term, but this is not a rates market that i think will

struggle off a lot of the challenges that we see. ast importantly, this is not federal reserve, or any global central bank, that will shrug off the damage that will be equated -- created in the economy. this is a period that carries higher potential for credit events, for long-term scarring. fancyorget about the mathematics you know so well. talk about the emotion and the behavior if we get yields to break down, if the 10 year yield actually comes in back again, then you low yield -- i note a -- i know in on this hsbc is in on this. what is the societal impact of low yields? frances: i would be more concerned if we were to see a breakaway higher. this is everything every day -- rates are moving higher, too much inflation in the system --

we should be more afraid of stagflation and painful inflation coming through and the fred losing control of the yield curve. important, aso france is always lays out so well, how widely asymmetric in the behavior is. everyone is in a panic about how yield, yet we observe on the bloomberg tests of lower rates. thethan: which begs question where this expectation for higher inflation comes from, given your analysis of the economy, how it will materialize in the next 12 to 18 months. frances: in some ways, higher inflation is justified. heading into april of 2021, we will hit inflation that haps comes as close as 3% with upsides. -based,f that is math disruption in the goods based thatmy, the weak usc, but

is not permanently high inflation. if inflation is not permanently 3%, the bond market will not price in 3% inflation. we then come back to a period where inflation is back around 2%. most importantly, we will have areas of the economy that are experiencing painful high inflation, its sectors, other areas that will be in painful deflation. this is huge asymmetry within a price action. we have to be mindful of that. this is not boring 2%. everything is 2%. there are huge dichotomies of what is happening in the price phase. jonathan: clearly not your grandfather's bond market either. given everything you just said, do we need to recognize the position the central banks are in is the position central banks will be in for the foreseeable future -- i am not just talking about the 22 that christine lagarde was talking about -- i

am talking about 2023, 2024, 20 25 -- frances: exactly. my call is rates stay extraordinarily low. we are talking about a 50 basis points, maybe 100 basis points. we are not going back to even pre-covid levels of interest rates even as inflation moves higher. looking at the fred primary mandate, inflation and employment -- listen to what the fed is talking about on the sidelines. housing affordability from the new zealand central bank. we are talking about things like climate change at the bank of canada. powell talking more and more about racial inequality, as he should. these are central banks shifting their perspective to a broader mandate than just inflation to point -- 2% or they will be happy to allow short-term over shoots. tom: let's go over to secretary yellen and the future of stimulus in america. take all of that you have said

and frame it into the amount of stimulus through this pandemic. 500 billion dollars, $908 billion is ok? ofl there be trillions dollars of stimulus, or are you or $6ting $4 trillion trillion of stimulus will be required? frances: i am expert thing persistent, continuous stimulus without an end date or number. we are seeing a shift towards demanding a larger size of government. we are demanding the government take over the reins of central banking to address very large inequalities, to address the need to shift to a greener economy. we are moving towards a government that will become a larger segment of the economy. for the market, that is incredibly important, because you have monetary policy that says i will think of that front end for a long time and probablyt policy

primed for macro issuing. policyift from monetary as the main tinker of our largestis the implication of what covid did. tom: bring it over to chapter 23 of your entry textbook -- i believe it was on the equity markets. fold what you said over into how corporations will adapt to this to the profitability of our business environment. frances: i suspect we will be rewriting a lot of those textbooks. from the investment side of the picture, you have extraordinarily low rates for a very long time, very cheap money, you will see larger and larger allocations towards equities. that does not mean it is a straight line higher. we are totally primed for a bit of a pullback right now. but more and more money into that equity market is what i

suspect over the five-year. so even though i sound like i am bearish and concerned, it is hard not to have a bias over risk assets over that five-year to 10 year horizon. jonathan: that is what it has been torture on the psychological front for any investor -- your feelings about the world around you in the here and now, you have to park them and put them to one side. and i think people still find that really, really difficult. they are looking at their moral compass, and they seem to think the markets should align with it, and i think still now, even after the conditioning we have had through 2020, i think it is still difficult for many people. can you walk me through the conversations you have around those clients and the lessons of 2021 and beyond? frances: i am a chief economist and i am head of strategy. in the past, that was the same job. if you thought rates were going rates were going higher.

what has been challenging is we have not just had to set aside our moral compass, where our heart is, watching lines for food banks that go around the block three times and say that is not the trade, we have also have to set aside our fundamentals. when we say things like a negative print on december but a meansolls, lower interest rates and larger asset managers -- those are the connections we are coming to. this is no longer a situation where fundamentals are the primary driver. does that come back? maybe. but we have to break out the correlations between a lot of the economic factors and the market that are uncomfortable, and we will probably have to rewrite at least some chapters in the textbook. jonathan: i thing we have to get rid of the book. you for your time. frances mcdonald of manulife

investment. the best part of eight years, 10 years ago, you and i having a conversation about getting rid of the textbook -- i do not see you introducing old chapters anytime soon. tom: it is stunning. i think at home, i have the library of those textbooks, some of them given by wonderful guests throughout the years. none of this is in the textbooks. i want to point out the president tweeting actively -- it is a mismatch, i will call it come on the vaccine and on north korea. i just want to point out the president of the united states messaging this morning. on the screen, i go back to the real yield, -1%, that speaks volumes from a week ago. jonathan: that is the story and the story of the equity market a little bit softer on the week on the s&p.

down 27. off three quarters of 1%. , the -- don side school of public health. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first word news, i am karina mitchell. secretary azar says the fda is rapidly working to finalize the go-ahead on the emergency use the vaccine. of the fda does not have to follow recommendations, but it often agrees with its advisers. in germany, the number of daily rhinovirus deaths rose the most -- the number of daily rose theus deaths most --

battleground states search the supreme court to declare the .20 election over. the lawsuit wants to overturn andlts in pennsylvania other states. and 17 otherexas republican controlled estates would join the suit is unprecedented. the u.s. will impose sanctions on turkey for buying a russian missile system. president trump signed off on a package of measures. thes not there what sanctions involved. the president had resisted bipartisan pressure to punish turkey for a deal with pressure -- with russia. larry cohen has found a new way around giving back $10 million by giving it to charity. goldman wants to demonstrate mdbountability for the 1

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>> i think we have a lot to be optimistic about in this country, but in the near term, even with these vaccines,

moderna and pfizer, we have to allow them to be even to the people who need them the most. health care workers, vulnerable people locate eventually, we will have enough to roll out across the country, but that will take more than six months. jonathan: we are getting closer to starting, closer and closer. that was the merck ceo. i amside tom keene, jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz taking a long weekend. there is a wait to this -- weight to this, down around three quarters of 1% on the s&p. the euro-dollar, down about 1/10 of 1%. look the pound sterling. we will not talk too much about brexit. but session lows. the prime minister speaking to a broadcaster here in the united kingdom, sky, says it is likely to leave without a deal.

tom: cut to the chase. hereis the "so what" versus two years ago, three years ago? jonathan: it depends on how well businesses are to deal with it. were prepared, maybe they struggle a bit. they were not prepared, crash out and start to see the negative consequences. there will be negative consequences on both sides of the channel, not just in the u.k. but across in europe as well. tom: one of the things we agreed on in march was we would speak -- the good work of imperial college, washington state, -- the university of washington and their microbiology. and then there is the math of it all. the math really, really matters right now. out of the acclaimed kansas math program and biostatistics at michigan. leslie mcclure joins us now from

drexel. truly expert on the math-iness of all of this. what is the key mathematics of the vaccine that our audience needs to know? leslie: great question. mathematically, what is important about the vaccine right now is the number of people and doses of the vaccine. tom: that is the size of the vaccine, and we will imputed onto society. on what mayeffect be a statistically large body saying i will not take vaccine. what is impact on those brave enough to get in line? leslie: i'm putting my parents in line before me. it is important we all get in line. as a public health official, it is contingent on us to get the messaging out, to tell people how important it is and to really educate the public about the vaccine and the benefits of

it. thethan: let's talk about benefits and how we harvest those going forward. the question we have asked so many times now is what number of people, what percentage of the population do we need to reach before we can scale back instructions? -- restrictions? thee need to just vaccinate most at risk in society before we remove all of the restrictions around social distancing, etc., or do you need to achieve herd immunity to go forth and do that? leslie: that is a really difficult question. the assumptions you make to answer that differ depending on the day of the week. but my stock answer is we cannot remove those restrictions and we have to continue to be cautious even after we vaccinate a large proportion of the value -- of the population. as we learn more and more about the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. jonathan: in terms of who needs to be vaccinated -- we know the

most at risk in society -- are we aware of the people who have already had covid-19, whether they need to be vaccinated? understanding is the advice about that is mixed. that there are some saying that those who have already had covid-19 perhaps do not need to be vaccinated, but the recommendations, i believe, are that they should be vaccinated in that it will incur additional protection on them. comingu know this cold out of michigan's prestigious program is where thomas francis was -- he is the guy who stood up and said polio will work, take the vaccine, where we got to 90% on the polio vaccination program. how long is it going to get us to take to get to april of 1955? , we need to build a

time machine, to go back to a time when people trusted science more. my hope is that we can get there. frankly, i do not know how long it will be until we have the capacity to vaccinate that larger proportion of the population. going back to the numbers game, we need more information about the timeline for wide is sheepish and up the vaccine. my hope is that by the time we are in wide strip asian, that the public will be more trusting and more people will be willing to take the vaccine, because we need to get back there. head, askingyour this as a complete amateur, when mcclure think we will be comfortable again in society. when the kansas city chiefs can go out in the field comfortable that no one will get the virus? opinion ispersonal that it will be at least another year before i feel that comfort.

i hope i am wrong. hope we will have a super bowl in february with no issues at all. jonathan: we are so lucky to catch up with you today. please come back, even if that was a depressing end to this conversation. leslie mcclure of drexel university. 12 months is not the number of people are thinking about. tom: nobody wants to hear that. dr. fauci, with respect to her academics, would tilt towards her and say let's get to actual adults talking about the efficacy of distributing the vaccine. the answer is we do not know. there are a lot of mysteries right now. jonathan: you have to factor in something else -- the people who will make the call -- it will be the scientists who give the advice, the politicians will make the call, and they will have to weigh civil liberties as well and factor in everything in

this decision, which is why a lot of people think of the pressure will be so great. are once the most at risk vaccinated, the pressure to remove restrictions, regardless from advice from scientists and health care professionals, will be so great. tom: i would look to businesses to provide constraints, including airlines. this is widely rumored or 20 -- ferro will get on a jet plane. it will not happen until everybody on the plane shows they are vaccinated. jonathan: to be clear, i hope it is sooner than 2023. i know you do not want me back -- tom: can i interrupt? nobody cares about the markets. yours and my favorite guy at bloomberg, roman the technologist, he had a birthday the other day and did not even bring it up.

jonathan: did he? roman birthday, like a roman holiday. tom: we are not on speaking terms with him, but who cares? jonathan: i am on speaking terms with him. what colorrket on the yield should be. [laughter] ♪

>> that are so many people out of work. >> we are starting a brand-new economic cycle. >> there's going to be a lot of investment, lot of support. >> stimulus isn't there yet and you have a lack of coordination. >> the central banks have locked themselves in to be stuck at lower bounds. >> is not that we are going to grow in 2021, is it will it be enough? >> this is "bloomberg