>> that are so many people out of work. >> we are starting a brand-new economic cycle. >> there's going to be a lot of investment, lot of support. >> stimulus isn't there yet and you have a lack of coordination. >> the central banks have locked themselves in to be stuck at lower bounds. >> is not that we are going to grow in 2021, is it will it be enough? >> this is "bloomberg keene andce" with tom

jonathan ferro and lisa. jonathan'ss using vacation days, i believe she returns monday. it is an amazing market. reading into the weekend, you say what is new? what is new is a new test the lower bound, another test of lower interest rates worldwide. jonathan: and a test of the recovery in the u.s. ,he claims delivered a surprise an upside surprise on jobless claims. ate people, the team bloomberg economics think we could get a negative print for december. are you still willing to have a size the rights around -- and these markets? it is still the same question. futures are down 25. tom: the president tweeted that

maybe we will hear from the supreme today. are these claims and the other is what we heard from dr. mcclure, this idea of the pros talking about a return to normal that is farther out. tom: 12 months. policymakers did a fantastic job urging the cap. they won the full job of replacing the shocks. disposable income in america has increased as unemployment surged earlier this spring. that allowed a snapback in the economy. if you have confidence in the next 12 months, i think you need that bridge to the other side, you need the fiscal deal in d.c. there is a possibility they go home for christmas without an agreement. tom: i want to get a data check. likeme on the data check you never let me join you on the data check. let's zero down. futures are -24.

we will talk to mr. holland and a moment. are reallyds retesting new big negative rates. tom: europe is gravitating towards the german ten-year. we have subzero on spain, subzero on portugal, negative yields earlier this week, italy all-time low. the bond market in the u.s., 10 year treasury yields come in a little bit, about 89 basis points. they topped out in december. they are finding it difficult to go higher. up do you expect wages to go if so many people are out of work? have you expect the labor market to get tight if the outlook is still so large? tom: some of the voices on our show are extraordinary about the perspective and what it means to get out one quarter, two quarters, three quarters.

co,ael holland of holland & he joins us. the retreat from norway after world war ii, they put it up every year, holland is not in london with pharaoh, he is here in the u.s. how do corporations adapt to the reality of no travel, no globalization and the constraints of this pandemic? michael: very well is the quick answer. myriad of zoom meetings i have attended over the past 10 months, the word "seamless" has come up with "frequency." people are adapting well -- companies are adapting well. ,f you look at the c-suite there are a lot of smiles there with respect to that question. jonathan: forgive me for cherry

picking aided the point that there was a huge smile and scratching the head over doordash and airbnb. you have seen it all. your take on the ipo's this week? michael: human nature repeats itself century after century. we have had what you can call pools.ind we have $80 billion in spats which are slips of paper coming out. people get to promote on the front end as they have done for centuries, make tons of money, dribbling it out to the public and screw the public. tom: eye frames this earlier in the week and it was a michael spxand russian which is the is up double digits. it is up over the decades double digits. back in the 1950's, double digits. why do we keep talking about

single digit stock returns? michael: because institutional mindsets have a way of trying to protect their jobs, not saying things that scare their bosses. at thes no way to look craziness of the capital markets today where we have 40% of the european market -- on market owned by the central banks. your risk-free rates return by which you judge stocks'value. it is thrown out the window. you talked about throwing away the textbooks. you have to say here is what we are dealt today and there is nothing other than equities that one can look at if you are a serious investor. this is so important about the idea of recalibrating. we have to recalibrate to a measured ownership of tesla.

everyone is under owned on apple, etc.. what is the institutional adjustment at year end you expect to see? i think a lot of people who are heads of investment committees and investment programs are going to look to protect their hides because the majority will have underperformed again, continuing triumph of hope over experience. you do a little bit more on the edges which means you probably in a little more buying terms of allocations because bonds make no sense in this alice in wonderland world when you talk about the craziness of the negative rates abroad and where we may be going. we may be going in the other direction on inflation. how can you justify buying a

great deal of fixed income? you can't. jonathan: let's talk about that more. you mentioned something about valuations. in isolation, what does it mean? going back to the early 2000's, the tender yield was almost 7%. many people looking at the price action, the ipo's and benchmarks and getting back to the crazy times of the late 90's, let's talk about where fixed income is right now. this is another world, isn't it? -- well it is truly described. it is another world and alice and wonderland popping through my mind when you think about these numbers. bloombergheard on from some people, 2% inflation

is going to be in the rearview mirror. you have a 30 or treasury at year 2%, that's a 30 treasury at under 2%, you have an opportunity to this money on fixed income. is quite incredible. tom: we lost a great one, robert stovall. tell us about bob stovall. michael: he had a wonderful voice. he was one-of-a-kind. he was one of the great technical -- great wall street lore. he would be laughing at the lack of guidance from the markets as to how you are supposed to comport yourselves in terms of losing money in the markets. today, i don't think we have enough of those kinds of people who have detachment from the craziness around us.

wideyou look at martin's -- martin and what he did in telling us about the fed. bob to of all -- bob stovall told us how to talk about the markets with his voice on the floor of the markets. there were times on wall street week where you lifted up on the kurds to be in the market. how do you stay -- on the courage to stay in the market. how do you stay in the market right now? own personalyone's accounts and how foundations or charities who rely on these -- first, do no harm. like doordash and tesla and airbnb and the craziness of the markets. you identify those for people and you say go to real businesses. there are businesses that are going to pay dividends. can you imagine that?

jp morgan yielding nearly 3% when the tenure treasury is yielding two thirds of that or less -- wendy 10-year treasury is yielding two thirds of that or less. you have to step in and say you're not going to participate in this craziness. jonathan was asking earlier about people at the end of the year, what do they do? i think avoiding the craziness so you don't lose a ton of money in the coming years is a step in the wrong direction. jonathan: michael, you are one-of-a-kind and it is great to catch up. it is great to hear you sounding well. michael holland of holland & co. so important to reflect on people who have seen it all. traditionalthose signals from fixed income where those traditional signals don't mean anything anymore. you know it well. once the measure becomes the

target, it is no longer a good measure. i think that applies to fixed income. tom: as young as i am, there is not much i have seen. 18% down or 35% down, just from experience. i am not predicting this. jonathan: you could tell us about the stock exchange back in the 20's, i look forward to that. tom: we are not as gloomy as lisa. jonathan: we are not, we will be monday when she comes back. edward mills coming up. good morning to you all. this bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. americans may be days away from getting a coronavirus vaccine. fda azar told abc news the is moving to authorize the use of the vaccine by pfizer. a's are says it could -- alex

azar says we could see people getting vaccinated by monday or tuesday of next week. a warning from boris johnson, he says business and the public should be prepared to leave the european union market without a trade deal. u.k. will continue to seek an agreement but he warned that they follow future changes may be an obstacle. toflix says it could have up 350 million subscribers worldwide by 2024 due to an onslaught of programming from marvel and pixar. spend $15 billion a year on content. haze fan is a chinese citizen x -- escorted from her apartment building by chinese officials. the company has been speaking to

authorities to find out more. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell, this is bloomberg. ♪ wanna lose weight and be healthier? it's time for aerotrainer. a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time.

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>> how many more people have to be laid off?

--laid off before nancy pelosi and the democrats will act? republicans will continue to work in good faith just as he put forth bills again and again. the blame gamen: has been going on since at least early july. that was kevin mccarthy blaming the democrats as the democrats blame republicans. good morning, a fiscal agreement loose in washington. the s&p's letter, down on the s&p 500. yields come in. the euro-dollar, 121. christine lagarde says she is watching it carefully. i am sure -- i'm not sure we are watching it very carefully.

this market unmoved by those comments. 13, a fancy room at the capital. edward mills has spent a lot of 213. in f he is a wonderful policy analyst with true experience on capitol hill. and is going on in s213 those hallways around it? forget about the media blather, what is the backstory of negotiations on capitol hill? edward: i think politics continue to get away. ,hat we saw before the election i think everyone i talked to was saying they were not sure if nancy pelosi wanted to get a deal, certainly did not want to give president trump a victory before the election. now that the election is behind us, we have two races in georgia

and most conversations i have is that mitch mcconnell is the person does not want to get a deal. we have a bipartisan group of senators trying to advance a $900 billion package. we have a government funded deadline tonight and a defense bill that has been passed every year since world war ii that needs to get done. tom: you can line up all the senate majority leaders, republican and democrat, and the fact that we need to pay for the pentagon and get a defense bill done. what is original about mitch mcconnell? speak to republicans, speak to them x. how it -- speak to democrats. how is he different? edward: people look at mitch mcconnell and say his motivation is his desire to win above all else. surertainly wants to make he wins these two races in

georgia to maintain his majority and is looking to see if he can set up a situation where a no deal on fiscal stimulus is blamed on democrats. currently pushing hardest for liability releases. he is doing the bidding of his donors. i think it is more about seeing if there is noia bill, that would be more negative to democrats who will now control the presidency and for the focus of negotiations on school relief -- on fiscal relief. he has not been involved in a lot of these negotiations, that is what has been surprising. he needs to be more involved in these conversations before we can be optimistic about the process -- the prospect of getting a new round of stimulus. case, no at your base

deal until after january 5? case is that it is not a question of if but when and how much. i give a sense that congress -- i get a sense that congress does not want to adjourn this year until something happens. something to see how immediately comes together unless people start taking hostage of the defense bill, he government bill. -- the government bill. we could have a brief shutdown tonight because there was not a sense anyone wanted to hold hostage any of these must pass bills before the election. now that we are past that, everything is on the table. jonathan: is there a sense of an investment, the prospect of the government shutting down tonight? is their embarrassment at the

fact they can't get anything done? d feel that in d.c.? -- do you feel that in d.c.? edward: i don't think there is embarrassment, i think there is acknowledgment that there are high-stakes negotiations going on in each side is looking to find some leverage. d.c. usually only response when there is a crisis, when there is a deadline. all of these fiscal relief packages have moved through other deadlines, have through other crises without getting done. there's finally the sense that something has to happen and people are ramping up. it is more of a political street fight at this point. tom: who applies pressure on the senator from kentucky? what power party moves mr. mcconnell to do what so many americans desire? edward: i think it is a political fame

coming from media coverage or getting pushed by his individual members. the bipartisan group is putting more pressure on him. last that was an interesting situation where you have bernie theers, josh hawley on floor together pushing for another round of fiscal support checks because they see their constituents suffering. where ites of events is not viewed as a one-party situation but there is a bipartisan, strange ideological mix pushing for things. fights,ast, on these the only thing that works in my mind has been the same. jonathan: great to catch up with you. a first week of january

2021 we have lined up for you all. tuesday the fifth, the georgia runoff. friday the eighth is the payrolls report in the u.s. for what many people expect to be a difficult month, the month of december. tom: you noted at the top of the show the idea of claims coming in ugly and we get two more of those before we get to the late january report. we are going to get a series of indicators to frame up what the unemployment survey will look like. jonathan: economists starting to ponder the prospect could be negative for payrolls. we will get to paul donovan shortly, joining us on this program. for our audience worldwide, heard on bloomberg radio and seen on bloomberg tv. base is back with us on monday. futures down 27 on the s&p 500. we are down by around three

quarters of 1% after thatto-back monster ipo's led the ceos of doordash and airbnb to sit there with a bit of a smile, scratching their heads.

jonathan: from new york and london to our audience worldwide, good morning. let's get some price action. equity futures come back on the snap. cash on the s&p 500. we came back. six straight weeks of gains on the russell, small caps lower this morning, down about 1%. it is a story for stocks, a story for bonds. subzero, negative fields. spain in the next this morning, there it is right there. negative .001%. ecb. all the risk,ng redenomination sitting on yields and it is

going to lift there until march 2020 two -- 2022. the ecb president pointed out they are watching this carefully. foreign, butet amasses. mandate ofs to our getting 3%, etc.. 1.21.ollar at the fate of euro against u.s. dollar lies in the hands of a global recovery. if you have faith in the global arevery through 2021, you likely to see a weaker dollar and stronger euro. if you don't, it will gravitate to the u.s. dollar and the euro will roll over. contributes to the recovery store -- the recovery story. no one thinks they're ever going to cut rates again. jonathan: the conundrum over

reflation and we will see where that goes. we are trying to advance the discussion and we could do that with paul donovan, usb economist. we don't say where our guests are because everybody is spread out. but if you hear incoming fire in his interview, that is because he is ensconced with the first artillery gate locked down with a third regiment royal horse artillery. if you hear missile firing, it is not coming after paul donovan. i have seen stories that president xi wants to constrain -- a newtalism in an way in china. this is the heart of your book, isn't it? paul: what we are looking at in china is that the five-year plan is trying to pivot the economy. it includes a larger role for the government.

i think there is some recognition that the world is changing. china, which did marvelously any third industrial revolution, it was perfect conditions for china to grow. they have or less that won't work in the future. and the fourth industrial revolution, they will be -- it will be a more digitized economy. that the something i think the chinese government is struggling to grapple with. coming out of the pendant with a head start on the rest of the world, they have a bit of time. your global trade is picking up now but over the next couple of years, that may not be as strong support for them. they have got to pivot the economy domestically. that is where we are seeing these efforts come in. tom: with a new administration in washington, what is the to do list for the biden

administration looking at the liberties for hong kong? paul: the tensions we have already seen with the tweets from the national tea advisor elect this week. . coming administration is focused on hong kong, it is focused on china. this is going to be a source of tension. it is why a lot of people in the market are saying the u.s.-china tensions are not going to disappear because we get a new administration. i do think there is an interesting question about iteris, the specific policy -- the tariffs, the specific policy. the key point is under the biden administration, you have a company economist running the treasury. no competent economist is going to defend trade tariffs as a policy in the 21st century. i think the overall direction of

policy from the incoming biden administration, we are not going to get much of a change. the way the policy is implemented, the tools that are put to work will shift. jonathan: this is really important and i would love for you to build on this. in the seat as an economist who trade innted view of the reserve, but now his secretary treasury, you become a politician. there is somewhat of a difference. is who isbottom line hurt most by the tray texas and the answer is u.s. companies and consumers -- by the taxes and the answer is u.s. companies and u.s. consumers. the current administration delayed taxes because it was doing damage to cash flow. there is a trend there of the viability of employment of companies.

from a political perspective, i think are other ways the u.s. can exert pressure on china. wto, for instance. we have seen use of sanctions and absolute limits. there are lots of levers of power they can use. u.s. do most damage to the , more soap than they do to china. -- more so than they do to china. jonathan: i think also having an industrial policy at home and building it out. that we didn't get in the last two years? asl: something as ambitious an domestic industrial policy is we don't have a unified government with control of the legislature. even if both georgia sits go to democrats and we get the 50/50

split with vice president harris having the deciding vote. the democrat party is a broad coalition of opinion. it is still going to be hard to get legislation through, particularly on something as normal and aggressive as a domestic industrial policy. to some extent, a lot of the issues around localizing production and on shoring, -- will take care of this. it is going to take time. it is not going to happen for the next two years. but three or four years more time, we might see more localization. tom: a cosmic question on our minds as we read into the weekend is the duration of the negative rate permit, this -- rate experiment, this treatment at the nominal rate. we heard from christine lagarde.

you are the excesses perceive or the behavioral excesses of chronic negative interest rates? is a get a gold? -- is it hitting old? -- is it getting old? paul: it was never great in the first place but what we have now is a old-fashioned tax. you could call it a wealth tax, a tax on savings. you have a tax in negative interest rates. this talk about how to be payback government that, you never payback government debt. you are talking about a situation where governments are going to be looking at things like negative interest rates as a wealth tax rather than as a stimulus policy. i think that is how we need to start framing this. financial repression is nothing new. the u.k. was doing this in 1945 and successfully as a method of

reducing debt. not to the extreme of negative rates, but low rates. i think this is going to be around for some time to come, very low rates for low value. tom: there is this cosmic belief that somehow the rules this time are different in nominal and real wages across all the cohorts. do you worry about real or actual wage declines? for some groups, real wage declines are a reality. a lot of people face higher inflation numbers than the headline inflation number. just because inflation and inequality has grown. i think we have start to be more careful. with the changes in the economy, of example, the strong pace business creation in the u.s. and the u.k., what we are

starting to see is households moving from single wage households to having a portfolio of incomes. maybe you are renting out rooms are air -- on airbnb, maybe you are selling goods on amazon, maybe you're a part-time farmer. we have these range of incomes coming in. with that, the concept of something as old-fashioned or a weekly wage or a monthly salary that you get by going to work for a single employer starts to fade as important. we need to broaden our approach and look more about the whole income a household is getting, not just the wage income. jonathan: can you promise us this -- back and up next year at the start of 2022 when things are normal, can we get tom down to the donovan farm? paul: absolutely, i have a myriad of tasks tom would be

doing. would be good at be out on the to scottish tundra. jonathan: i can see you on the farm, hard labor. icu. you. see i did a nice picture of you on the ice. i thought you might be men of the year, person of the year. nice black and white photo of you on the ice, gazing. tom: a few years ago. jonathan: was that actually you? was longi admit that ago and far away. jonathan: very cool. find that on my twitter account and keep grossman's -- and keith grossman's account. tom: the coach would look on the

bench and say, tom you sit there. [laughter] forthan: coming up, look up -- great to be with you. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ americans may start getting vaccinated for the coronavirus as soon as monday. that comes from alex azar. he tells abc news that the fda is moving to authorize the use of the vaccine made by pfizer. in germany, the number of daily coronavirus deaths and infections rose the most since the pandemic began. there were 604 deaths friday and more than 13,000 new cases. that is increasing pressure to impose a hard lockdown.

of mullisr and ceo and company says the coronavirus changes everything. he spoke with erik schatzker on bloomberg "front row." >> people talk about accelerating trends. that across the spectrum of businesses, including our own. the energy and the intellectual capacity put out and what is happening in business, almost every single enterprise, almost every executive is rethinking their business model and is trying to change and adapt weekly to survive what is a rapidly changing world. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the fda informed pfizer they intend to head toward any

authorization of their vaccine. as we work to negotiate, information doctors need to prescribe it appropriately, we should be seeing the authorization of this vaccine and we will work with pfizer to get that shipped out. we could be seeing people getting ax knitted monday or tuesday of next week. jonathan: absolutely brilliant. that was alex azar speaking to abc this morning. good morning to you all. i am jonathan ferro, lisa will be back monday. coming up around 15 minutes time. -- the president of queens college cambridge, that is coming up shortly. tom: i'm sure they wil the, we see in europe. the drama now is in washington and it isn't supported -- it is important to speak with anna edney.

someone has to read the document put out by the fda yesterday which goes into what the advisory committee is doing. adult,details with any anna edney joins us. what does the media not capture about the distinctions the advisory committee is struggling with? committee andsory up footing yesterday -- ended up voting yesterday that the fda gived get -- should authorization to pfizer for their vaccine. that was a recommendation to the fda. everyone wants them to do that now. tom: you know that. everybody -- you nailed it. to the dumb people like me, what the pros say about the initiation.

4-1, what doitem they say or what is there optimism about the dosing regime ? it 22 shot, you get one shot and you have to go back three weeks later to get another one for it to be as effective as they say. get one, you may have some protection but we don't know how long. people think i could get one dose and no big deal. we don't know how long that protection lasts. it has not been studied. everybody in the clinical study got a second dose. doing that might not be any good. these other questions the fda is looking at because they are trying to come up with a late. they are trying to say -- they are trying to come up with a label.

this is important. you have to write the document that tells doctors what to do to give confidence to the public. you know this history well. this is history from another time and place. i was on the backend of that fear. we convinced ourselves it was not solidified. what is the risk out there that the pros talk about? anna: it is not something so dangerous. the u.k. has started their vaccination campaign and there have been some allergic reactions. sometimes there is a reaction when you get a shot. i had an allergic reaction must not to the third martini, what you mean an allergic reaction? a rash?

anna: that would be normal. these are starting to be along the line of anaphylaxis. something where you will need an epipen. they are worried, thinking we it. to look at the u.k. has asked the fda for more information. they're not sure yet if you need to be cautious about taking it. i do not know what the fda is going to do. tom: how does the fda ended the health regime -- how do they do transition? all of the focus is on defense and justice. -- in thels alex halls of alex azar, how did they transition? anna: they have people who are on the ground working. they will send people to the fda

every day who are working with them and trying to do the handover. that is usually how it goes. i don't know how intensely they are able to be involved in any of these vaccine discussions because they are trying to keep that with the career -- the career officials, having nothing to do with the political people at the top because of trump's interference. tom: what will you look for today? kevin cirilli is trying to figure out what the supreme court is going to do. there is defense authorization, talk about stimulus. what did your calendar look like? anna: the cdc has advisors as well who are in on this vaccine. they're going to try to give advice on who will be first in line. they have already approved health-care workers and long-term care residents.

they're going to put on sunday for that. they're going to meet to start talking about that today. that is high on the health care agenda. if the fda doesn't send down the emergency use authorization, it might not happen today. it could be in the next couple of days but today we will be on the lookout. tom: thank you for joining us. just a pro at health regulation. the actual machinery that is going to end this pandemic. she is with bloomberg news. i want to frame out the correlations we see in the markets. correlate to weaker equities, -26. -165 on dow futures. the vix is interesting, it has finally moved. become 21.02 on the fix.

yieldnd market, 10 year .89%. i want to make note of a two year yield. jonathan does not agree, but the two year yield comes in. the two year yield. -.100%eld, digitsmands we do for and came up to me and said if it is four digits i'm walking out of the building. .9951 on the negative -- on the 10 year yield. this brings us up to the real yield. in john is in preparation to , but it is lorraine -- jonathan: [laughter] is that my promo?

thank you, tom. there are things you can say and i would get in trouble with saying. what a week, it has been a pleasure. liverpool, the summer 16th. -- december 16. jonathan: i can't wait.

jonathan: good morning, good morning. the countdown to the opening bell starts now with 30 mr. go. we begin with a big issue. new restrictions spurring first job losses. infections in new york nearing the darkest days of april. pennsylvania suspending indoor dining. ohio prolonging restrictions. >> today the department of health is extending the curfew order. this curfew order will go until january 2, 2021. in the next 21 days, it's vitally important all of us do everything we can to slow this virus down. jonathan: those restrictions hitting the economy. bloomberg economics increasingly cautious. it's consistent with our