>> how do wages go up when there are so many people out of work? >> we are starting a brand-new economic cycle. >> there is going to be a lot of investment and spending. >> the stimulus is not there yet. >> central banks have locked themselves in. that we will not grow in 2021. it is will it be enough? >> this is bloomberg surveillance, with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning.

this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom keene will be back with us tomorrow. a vaccine approved in the united states. there are several. vaccinations begin. how many people can we vaccinate and how quickly? lisa: and how much is priced in? market seem to be cheering everything. is it do not fight the fed, do not fight fiscal support, or do not fight the herd mentality? jonathan: in the s&p 500 we had some weight, up 31 points. the s&p 500.% on into the bond market, yields higher. the curve is steeper, up three basis points on the 10 year. s, 1.67.ar yield before you bury your head in the sand of 2021, we have to finish out q4, we have to get into q1,

germany going to hard lockdown. london going into the strictest tier in the u.k. of restrictions, it will be a tough time for this economy, not just in europe but we saw in the united states the wrong kind of upside surprise on jobless claims. retail sales wednesday, payrolls report in several days time. some people believe the payrolls print could be negative. lisa: but will it matter? at what point does the actual data and the facts on the ground matter when people are looking to valuations? a lot of the companies that have driven the gains seem to be benefiting from the stay-at-home economy. it seems hard to square the reality with the future. jonathan: on the stay-at-home economy, news from google. lisa talked about having problems with various parts of the company, outages with gmail, problems with the vast majority of users should now be resolved.

lisa abramowicz, back to school is on virtually speaking. why do you empathize with the kids? the parents are so relieved. jonathan: you think the parents are working monday morning at this time? lisa: yes, i do. even if they are not, they're expecting their kids to be home in their time to figure out how they're going to plan their day. theoretically, that might be what is going through somebody's mind should they be a parent who has children who are remote schooling. just theoretically. jonathan: i thought monday mornings and friday evening were just the dead zone where nothing gets done? that is what ceos will tell you. nothing happens monday mornings and friday evenings. lisa: does this dead zone? jonathan: it might be for some people. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: it will not be now. lisa hornby is joining us from

schroders. great to catch up. yields are low and spreads are tight. 2021 we have heard people say we can go a lot lower and a lot tighter. you agree with them? lisa h.: first of all, good morning. hopefully we are not in the dead zone. i think yields will be fairly stable this year. spreads -- i think lisa has alluded to it earlier. right now the market is willing to look through almost every piece of bad news and there is constant buying in the fixed income market. that probably continues in the near term, although you have to be more cautious when valuations are starting to approach the levels we are seeing. will doy the fed everything they can to not upset the apple cart. you have this environment for a while longer where you have negative real yields, which

encourages risk asset buying, but certainly you have to be more selective in your spot for this year. the sense theget test begins at the start of q2, that it is the data that will be the beginning of the test for the market and not the data between now and then? lisa h.: i think that is a fair assessment. people are looking through the next couple of months because everyone expects the stay-at-home orders to do nothing but increase over this period of time. .ata should deteriorate the service side of the economy is going to get a little bit weaker before things start getting stronger and we have enough people vaccinated. that is right. i think there's an expectation that by the time we get to early spring there will be enough people vaccinated, things will start to lift, temperatures will be warmer so the virus will start to receipt on its own from a seasonal perspective.

that is where we need to see things start to improve materially with economic momentum. know,i am curious to everyone is talking about how the true test maybe next year, the true test may be at the end of next year. the true test being default, companies being unable to pay their bills. it seems like the fed is willing to backstop markets indefinitely, and it seems like if we get a vaccine, it will only get easier for companies to borrow. are we going to avoid default cycles altogether in the immediate future? lisa h.: i think that is fair. it is not just the fed doing that. you look at what the ecb did and recalibrating their package to extend things beyond covid. they are now expending their programs into 2022. central banks and the federal

government are trying to say let's get through this tough part and then we will sort out the damage. congress this week to pass or get closer to it willa fiscal package do that on the consumer front. more small business relief, more help in terms of unemployment insurance for individuals. let's get through the rough part and then we will sort out where we are and what is left to pick up the pieces. lisa: i guess we have to start worrying about zombie companies, the idea of companies being kept alive, i do not want to say artificially, but artificially by fiscal and monetary policy and what the consequences are. does that mean invest in them or you have to recalibrate your assumptions around what growth will look like going forward? that is a great point --

lisa h.: that is a great point, not just something we are dealing with because of covid. companies have been allowed to happen and we are seeing more companies every day. for us, this means we want to look away from those type of companies. we want to look at companies that have positive cash flow momentum that can grow and generate earnings. when we think about where they are still valued, at least in the investment grade, it is companies that have the runway, and then should be well-placed to benefit from the vaccine and the economic momentum you expect to see next year. in all practical purposes, we expected to be a decent year from an economic perspective. i do not think you have to be forced to buy the zombie issuers

that potentially will have challenges in the future, particularly when we have a higher rate environment at some point down the road. i do not think we need to get involved in those. there are other opportunities that look more attractive. jonathan: the rules of the game have changed drastically in the last 10 to 15 years. i keep hearing this word distortion, where you twist something out of its natural state, that is the definition of distortion. if you had those distortions for a decade and more, lisa, isn't that part of the natural state, the fundamentals and we need to change our approach to markets, that sitting here with a moralistic judgment on how market should be, i get it helps people, but it does not help me make money, does it? lisa h.: i love that analogy. distortion the new norm now. i think that is probably true. we have all come to terms with the fact we are in a negative real yields environment for the

foreseeable future, and we have all come to terms with the fact that mean something for risk assets and we need to continue to find opportunities in markets despite this environment. that means valuations could compress to levels we do not feel are necessarily justified by the economic backdrop or the fact that leveraged metrics or as high as they have in in many parts of the investment grade corporate space there is still going to be demand for this paper regardless because there is price incentivized buyers in the market that will continue to be there for the next couple of years. that generally means a supportive environment ahead of us, but you have to be more cautious when you look at valuations and you have to be more thoughtful about where you're allocating your rest. jonathan: great to catch up as

always. my best to you and yours. lisa hornby of schroders. lisa abramowicz, that has been the story for the last 10 years, arguably. the rules of the game have totally changed and this year will go down as a classic example of that. lisa: you think saying it is distorted is a measure of group therapy? i love that. jonathan: i think we sit here talking about distortions and how market should be and where they should trade, but the market is ultimately the market. for people who study economics, price incentive buyers in a large financial market, fixed income, equities in japan, it was not anything that came up. it did not come up in the conversations you would have with your teachers. i think that is part of the story now. it is a feature. it is part of the fundamentals and people are finding it difficult to accept that. rightfully so. i get it. that is it.

you have to let it go. jonathan: at what point -- lisa: at what point does it matter? are there no negative consequences and can you just keep betting on it? jonathan: coming up, henrietta treyz. equities up 31. on the s&p, a percent. s&p,is bloomberg -- on the up .8%. this is bloomberg. vasta: google says the majority of its widespread product outage should be resolved. services including gmail, youtube, were failing for users in new york, the u.k., and across europe. third-party ads remain visible. meanwhile, hospitals in the u.s. started adding the coronavirus vaccine today. shipments began leaving pfizer's michigan factory yesterday. the shots will arrive in more

than 600 hospitals. the doses will be given to health-care workers and nursing home residents. russian government hackers reportedly hit several u.s. agencies. according to the washington post, hackers targeted systems within the commerce and treasury department and other agencies. the new service says the agencies were breached through a server. numbers of the electoral college me today to officially elect joe biden. some republican lawmakers have said that would be the end of president trump's attempt to overturn the results as far as they are concerned. electors are committed to voting for the winner of the popular vote in each state. the president has said he will continue his legal challenges. he was a master of the spy game --pite the moral ambiguities he was in berlin in the 1960's and that became the setting for his first bestseller, the spy

who came from the cold. he was 89. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. is bloomberg. ♪

>> i do not think we should leave until we get a relief package. we have a commitment to the

american people. we should make that commitment and fulfill our jobs and our responsibility. jonathan: many people agree with him. that was congressman dwight evans, democrat from pennsylvania. to our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. just want to go through the price action quickly. bond yields higher, equities deeper. the story holds in the bond market. up three or four basis points. in the equity market, we do follow-up session highs. , call still positive .7% a 26 points. lisa abramowicz, reporting from our team at bloomberg. weighing on the market a little bit. lisa: technology giants deemed gatekeepers by the european union could face fines of 10% of their annual revenue if they unfairly favor services, that would be the facebooks and googles of the world saying of

search results come back favoring their own products or their partners or financial benefit, they could get fined or otherwise forced to divest some of their businesses. you can see there is a bit of reaction in markets with google shares down a little bit. it is interesting, the e.u. has been leading the way. there is a question of whether other nations, particularly the united states, will get on board given the fact there does seem to be a wave of democrats in congress that could potentially also start increasing scrutiny. jonathan: the fines could get baker, this according to a draft of -- the fines could get bigger. a great guest to get a reaction. henrietta treyz joins us. we will get your first take and then we will talk about washington. this is the european story. what is your reaction on our reporting? henrietta: the interesting piece is to consider democrats and republicans both want to have a

broader conversation about tech, but one of the pieces that unites them unanimously as whenever the eu decides they want to tax any big businesses in the tech space. line a fight to the finish to see whether we can complete a digital tax negotiation first, whose regulation should be adhered to. the u.s. perceives the eu regulations to be overly burdensome and biased against united states corporations and effectively a land grab for dollars from tech in the united states. it is a unifying moment, one the trade negotiators are going to have to deal with as the senate finance and ways and means committees will have to deal with. jonathan: you think one single focal point could divide efforts elsewhere? you think this one point could divide efforts elsewhere? henrietta: i think you have to

view all of the tech issues holistically when you're talking about taxation's or fines. i think the tech space wants to see pushback from the united states because they know the end of the road will, and they will see more fines and tax generally , but they are trying to stall and reduce the overall scale of any regulatory or taxation components to the best extent they can. they know they are on borrowed time. jonathan: before we talk about -- lisa: before we talk about additional taxes, we have to get through the rest of this year and the fiscal support package in washington, d.c.. based on your conversations with people in the beltway, what is your sense of what could and would get passed? henrietta: i think we are looking some bring -- i think we're looking at something in the range of $600 billion. their proposals floating around, and we could see legislative texts later today. there is frustration with most

of the republican staff about the lack of text from a bipartisan group around mcconnell's plan or secretary mnuchin's plan. they want to see something real. that gets to the heart of the problem. you cannot put out a nearly $1 trillion to millis package 10 days out from a government funding deadline. i think tomorrow is when we will see real action. my expectation for our clients is 75% odds it is a matter of scale, not whether or not we will see a stimulus bill. somewhere in the $700 billion range to $600 billion range is what i'm expecting. that is bare minimum unemployment insurance benefits. funding for schools and health care providers, vaccines, testing. nothing in the line of a direct payment individuals or a federal booster payment on the on employment insurance benefits.

i described odds there has 30% to 40%. billion to $700 billion, we are hearing the bill is being broken into two pieces. the $748 billion, not including state and local aid. you think that is dead in the water, the financing for local governments? henrietta: i do. i think they want to sort that out in 2021. the same is true for business liability. they have not been able to agree on any of those components. i do not think anything has meaningfully move the needle. you have the dynamic of the two georgia senate seat, and the republicans are anxious to continue to be conservative, even as they passed deficit increasing finance legislation. the deficit has increased by three fold under the trump administration. it is a big issue for the base republican voter in the state of georgia, so if you can keep

spending down, especially on the they wouldocal side, prefer to see that. keeping state and local out of this is probably a necessity, somewhere below 160 for sure. jonathan: in many ways this is about mitch mcconnell setting us up for january 5. henrietta: i think so. you will not be able to see a trillion dollar package come out and then say you are fiscally conservative. it is incongruous for the senators running on a fiscally conservative basis. is mostlyn in georgia within the republican conference. will we see 5% to 7% of the voters boycott the election as a result of the outcome of the november 3 election? how can we turn out the republican base? happen we make sure voters come out and it is not just a

delusion of democratic supporters. they hew towards fiscal conservatism which has to keep your spending below $700 billion. jonathan: great to catch up as always. our best to you and yours. henrietta treyz of veda partners. lisa, let's talk about this. in 2020.nservative this is not me advocating for anything. let me put that out there. it is not $1 trillion anymore, but $500 billion and you are still fiscally conservative. it is worth recognizing just how much this year has changed our hawkof what being a fiscal is in washington, d.c. that is how phenomenal this year has been for all the wrong reasons. lisa: i will say this. there are no economists who says at this point it is time to save and pay back debt when you of costs this low. honestly, have you heard anyone say that? jonathan: i will find you a few.

give me two minutes. i will find you one. lara rhame is not one. she will be joining us shortly. right here on bloomberg, this is bloomberg tv and radio every year, we set out to do one thing: help the world believe in holiday magic. and this year was harder than ever. and yet, somehow, you all found a way to pull it off. it's not about the toys or the ornaments but about coming together. santa, santa, you're on mute! just wanted to say thanks. thanks for believing.

jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning to you on bloomberg tv and radio. this is "bloomberg surveillance." coming into monday, we are positive. about one hour away from the opening bell, up 27 points on the s&p 500. the wonderful lou wang of bloomberg news breaking down the numbers. the average forecast for the people we track, 4035. right now 3680 on the s&p 500. fromis the year end call the strategist on wall street. numberinto 2020, that was 3280. that was before anyone knew about covid-19. before anyone knew the global

economy would essentially be in recession. 3280 was the call on the s&p 500. we saw 3700 last week. switch of the board and finish up the bond market. yields higher, the curve steeper. going into a key week from the federal reserve. yields up three or four basis points. up five basis points on the 30 to 1.68. 93 basis points on the u.s. ten-year. moving in the wrong direction last couple of weeks. retail sales wednesday morning. if that will start to move in the wrong direction. we will get the federal reserve, which for this bond market is massive. the yield go higher. for this curve to steepen, they need to get out of the way. that is what will be looking for this wednesday and the news conference. michael mckee will be wondering whether they do get out of the way or offer any clarity on the asset purchase program. you wanted a name of a fiscal hawk. stephen moore, of course. lisa: we will call him and asked

him whether he agrees there should be no more spending whatsoever at this point. maybe does. i think we need to check in, we will do some research. in the meantime, let's pick up on what you are saying about the important week ahead, the federal reserve, what they will do with their bond purchase program. michael mckee asking the hard questions at those fed conferences. bloomberg international correspondent. what is the consensus expectation from the fed? michael: there is not a real consensus. market participants divided over whether the fed will take action or not. the best guess, certainly there is nobody who thinks they will change interest rates. the best guess is 55% think they will attach additional forward guidance to their statement this of qesuggesting the pace purchases will depend on the economy, depending on the

inflation rather than say they will keep it unchanged for the next few months. the idea they may change the weighted average maturity does not get as much support. about 77% of the economists we surveyed said they will do it in 2021, but not at the december 16 meeting. jonathan: do you think the state contingent guidance on an asset purchase program is harder to do that it is with interest rates? michael: is a little bit harder to do, but the point they want to get across in wall street as they are not going to be moving rates anytime soon. this just pushes the idea out of qe infinity in the next few years because nobody thinks will get unemployment down to 3.5% inflation up to 2.5% in the next two years. hitting is without eight -- without putting a timeframe, push it out to a couple of years from now.

that is my question. why they were not just choose a timeframe. we have several central banks doing different things. we have japan and australia picking a point on the yield curve and saying will sit on it. we have the time contingent guidance from the ecb saying will be in the market, this is the size of the package, we will use this going to march 2021. what you think is behind the different approaches from the different central banks we are seeing with the respective asset purchase programs? michael: they use their asset purchase programs differently in each of the various regions. the biggest difference may be the fed has completed its review of how they do things and they have decided they will be inflation contingent and not rises abovenflation 2% for a significant period of time. then ore not made it by

if you make it early, then you have to go back on what you have said. if you tied to the contingency, you can wait until it actually happens. mckee, alwaysael great to get clarity from you. joining us is lara rhame, fs investments chief economist. if you can build on that, what are you looking for this wednesday? lara: i agree. they have talked about wanting to do something soon. i think they will try to be more specific about locking in forward expectations. financial market support and economic support. something we forget if we look back at prior expansions, we do not know when this recession will end. 1991, 2001, the fed was cutting interest rates in the first 18 months of those expansions. they are actively supporting an economy as we are coming out of a recession, and it is not a

coincidence if you look back in 2009, interest rates were at zero. it puts them in a spot where they cannot do the additional support. qe we had wase 2011 and 2013. that is a sign of how years into the expansion they were still having to support the economy. very different recessions, very different expansions. the point is they are gearing markets up for the idea they will have to be accommodating them for years to come. mike's point is important. markets love to look for a change. they love to be forward-looking. they are not worried about changing expectations right now. they're worried about the five-year forward expectations. any kind of yield curve steepening, they want to sit on that. jonathan: this is an important cash lisa: this is an -- lisa:

this is an important point, the idea the fed has run out of ammunition. are you suggesting that based on their ammunition, they are not being easy enough, they are not necessarily increasing their purchases enough to support the expansion as they have in the past, just based on where we are and how receptive the market is to their measures? lara: that is a tricky question because it goes both ways. what more can they do? they are said squawking when steven mnuchin is trying to shut down the main street lending facility. they would he knowledge they want to more and are upset some of those pathways to impact the economy directly might be taken away. theyfeel very comfortable can help financial conditions. the question is what that is

doing for the main street economy. i think that is the issue. absolutely, they will argue they need to be doing more, they want to be doing more come into your point, they have run out of traditional mechanisms. how creative can they get? lisa: in the meantime you're looking at the economy and the hurt out there. we will be getting retail sales later this week and the employment filings as well on thursday. what are you looking for? how close are we to a double-dip versus the expansion people are already pricing in? lara: i think we are pretty close. that is not atypical during -- thinkwnturns we get we are looking at seasonally adjusted data. we forget when it is not seasonally adjusted, so much

spending activity and hiring takes place in this holiday period. we are already seeing claims and the other direction, we have already seen auto sales down in november. i think we will see a decline in november retail sales. you could get some pain inflicted on the fact that normally seasonal hiring is 5 million in december when it comes to retail facilities and holiday shopping. the december numbers could look ugly. whether quarterly gdp, you end up splitting it across the quarters, you do not get a negative territory, you have resilient businesses, that is the best we can hope for to power us through. , you arelook at hiring seeing permanent layoffs increase.

that is going to be a concern going forward. jonathan: you mentioned retail sales. a negative print on wednesday. theing for negative 0.3% on headline numbers. claims today, claims have been moving in the wrong direction last couple of weeks. claims have not given you a clear read on where payrolls might go because it has been a massive churn in the u.s. economy. how useful do you think that is for an indicator of what is happening in this economy? taught a canary in the coal mine. i feel like the direction it takes, how fast it moves has enormous predictive power. it has been very power and it has stymied a lot of us because you cannot draw claims in terms of plugging in exogenous factors into your model to get the employment number has weakened in that regard. i still think it is important to watch claims.

that number last week confirmed what we expect, which is we have seen the mobility data shrinking. whether or not communities are imposing lockdowns or whether people are selecting -- or whether people are electing to stay-at-home order, either way we are seeing slowdown in economic activity in november and december. it is making that monthly payroll forecast a lot more tricky because we are used to using that as a strong input and it has been all over the place. jonathan: great to catch up. always appreciate your time. lara rhame, fs investments chief economist. the cause of, round claims and what it could mean for the december payrolls report. bloomberg's economics carl riccadonna looking for a negative print in the payrolls report. the team on the u.s. side, off the back of claims moving in the wrong direction. lisa: i'm wondering at what

point bad news will still be considered good news in getting a support package or whether at a certain point it will just be bad news. , jetblue coming up airways ceo robin hayes. what is going on with the airline business? we do that in 30 minutes or so. equity or futures up on the s&p. we advance .7%. this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. issues with its services should be resolved for the vast majority of users. earlier users were reporting outages. google products were failing throughout the u.s. and europe. in other news, health-care care workers and nursing home residents will be first in line when u.s. hospitals begin giving coronavirus vaccine shots. the first doses will arrive at more than 600 hospitals over the next three days.

pfizer is sending the vaccine and containers filled with dry ice to keep the formula and 94 degrees below zero. the eu is taking aims at tech giants. the companies could face fines of 10% of their annual revenue. if they do not comply with other regulations. oft is according to a draft new regulation seen by bloomberg news. billions ofing at dollars in revenues. blackstone is increasing its bet in life sciences real estate. the firm agreed to pay almost $3.5 billion for a connection of buildings in cambridge, massachusetts even before the coronavirus outbreak blackstone was one of the world's biggest investors in biotech and other life-sciences properties. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg.

much more to come. ♪

>> if you play brexit in the currency market, obviously the

best place to play against is the dollar. for christmas to shed the excess pounds. shed the excess pounds now. this will not go well. the pound at $1.34. the wonderful david bloom, who i have missed dearly. independent currency strategist, formerly head of fx at hsbc. tobiasup on "the open," levkovich. end 2021 at the bottom of the pile of the strategists we survey. lisa abramowicz, 3800 over at city in line with the 3800 at bank of america. lisa: i'm interesting to see what he has to say. i am still stuck on david bloom's recommendations that also have to do with currency. jonathan: shed those pounds. lisa: love the pun. thanks so much. will be checking out the

interview. one thing that has been catching people's attention is the question of whether the big cities will remain hubs for the financial world. the latest weighing in, deutsche bank, with the financial times reporting they may move half of their staffers based in new york city out of the city into other regional hubs. sonali basak has been covering the entire wall street story as bloomberg's wall street supporter, what is this story, what are the details so far we know about deutsche bank's plans? sonali: there is no concrete plan right now, but we do know there is a concrete plan once they move into the time warner center next year they will create a lot more flexibility for their workers to work from home, from other cities, not just be in new york city all the time. something that is remarkable is how fast some of these plans have accelerated. deutsche bank, when they announced the move away from wall street to the time warner center, they/their footprint in

new york city by 30%. slashed their footprint in new york city by 30%. you are seeing them accelerate the move even more while staying committed to the city. lisa: the acceleration you're talking about is different than changing up plans and deciding to move out of new york city. deutsche bank had been cutting the number of staff and the more expensive city. also goldman sachs, which we were talking about last week potentially creating a hub in florida also has been looking outside of new york. how much of these new plans versus pre-existing ones have gotten accelerated? sonali: a lot of these are new plans. you are seeing private equity firms create a much bigger presence outside of new york where taxes are lower. more sunshine and business friendly regulations. to make this work, you also have to make a lifestyle that works

for them in those locations that are school systems, investment in those communities. this is a lot of new plans. there are certainly a lot of new plans. there's a culture of changing insane not everyone wants to work from the same hub in manhattan and also changes starting to come around and those other cities. lisa: is a question of how much people get paid? you can move to omaha but you will get paid 30% last? sonali: that is a huge factor for everybody. remember, there is a dirty little secret on wall street. it is that is firm start to move their base, it takes care of a lot of the severance packages. we are seeing cuts at a lot of firms. how much of this is just lowering the cost base versus paying people lower amounts other places versus making their headcount smaller in certain areas as well. it is something will be trying to track closely. the other interesting thing is

people are not just hiring from the ivy league, they are finding more of a rationale for higher outside of these big cities, outside of delaware, outside of florida. that change in culture is significant. lisa: there a lot on pack. want to talk about the cuts you are talking about. initially the pandemic there were staff cut freezes at a number of banks those have gotten lifted. housing of get are some of the banks going to be cutting their staff, both in response to what they are seeing economically, but also because of the low interest rate environment. it is just hard, you have to cut costs in order to be more comfortable. sonali: that is exactly right. they're only disco banks we know of, morgan stanley and bank of ,merica -- there only two banks morgan stanley and bank of america, that help to the we will not cut anybody philosophy. we have big bank earnings come and you will see over and over how bloated the cost base are for the big u.s. banks.

there is a big demand to get the costed line, even for the companies you've not heard talk about the issue very much. lisa: where the cuts coming? sonali: some of it will be headcount spirit a lot will be real estate. paying people lower is one thing. it is also cheaper for these companies to operate out of different locations as well, saving money on leases. there is a mix of things. you hope it is not all in the headcount, but we will certainly see some in the headcount. there is a reason the big cities have been magnets for the financial hubs, that is because they attract younger individuals and that has been the tradition over decades and decades. the people you talk to want to go to florida. is there a sense the big cities will continue to attract younger talent and will continue to be reservoirs for that hiring pool?

sonali: right now the narrative is yes, but that concern the older bankers will not be there to teach them, this is an apprenticeship model. if you have one banker leading you from florida and the younger banker in new york city, there is a big concern about the next generation of bankers. moreoncern is getting severe. lisa: who do you think will be the next bank to announce they are looking at a potential hub outside new york? guess, thei had to reason i would say jp morgan is because you've heard jamie but -- you've heard jamie dimon joking about this for year. the new york post says jamie dimon's complaints his servers in manhattan have a great view of the city and not the people. lisa: sonali basak, thank you so much for that. an interesting story. there has been a narrative of an exodus from the big cities.

the question is when the pandemic tends, how much that narrative will be confirmed or put to bed. we will see. right now we are looking at markets enthusiastic about the prospect of a vaccine getting rolled out in the united states for the first time, as well as this idea there will be a package past in washington, d.c.. you are looking at the s&p gaining even more come .7%. 36 to 79. 10 year yield a little bit higher. thel very muted with expectation the fed will expand their purchases, .229%. considering tom keene has his grip over how many digits we use, the euro gaining .5% versus the dollar and the vix lower. right now we'ooking at solid risk on. we also have brexit. jonathan tries not to talk about it, but perhaps we are dealing with the deadline that is kicked

longer. coming up today, we are looking at tony ressler, aries management executive chairman. he will be joining later today. , thisew york and london is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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[bell ringing] [applause] >> from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. the countdown to the open starts now, with 30 minutes until the open bell. up 27 points on the s&p, up 0505%. we begin with the u.s. ruling out a vaccine as talks continue on capitol hill. >> i am pleased to announce that late yesterday, the fda authorized for emergency use the pfizer/biontech covid-19 vaccine. we applied our high standards of review in reviewing this product so that americans can have trust and confidence that the vaccine meet fda's rigorous standards for safety and effectiveness? jonathan: the vaccination effort begins right now. the government had of distribution laying out a potential timeline. >> 100 million people by the first quarter of