the electoral college confirms joe biden's victory. he asks americans to look ahead to the urgent work of getting the pandemic under control. curbing the virus. new restrictions threaten major economies. london is set to enter tier 3 rules. new york could see another full lockdown. and credit suisse will restart share buybacks in january. it also sees fourth quarter investment bank revenues ahead of the previous year. good morning, everyone, and welcome to "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene, welcome back. in london andtom, new york. a lot of the focus is on tom's bowtie. a lot of the focus actually on brexit. good that you had a couple days off so you didn't have to look at volatility and pound. joe biden is finally president-elect, confirmed. tom: i would say the virus overwhelms everything, francine, even brexit, the story in london, and certainly different stories in the u.s., a fed meeting coming up as well. everything said and done, the

virus has taken a new leap of new attention, certainly in new york city. francine: and london, we are definitely in tier 3, and that starts tonight. it is interesting to see how quickly and damaging to the economy it is, the stop and start, the fact that restaurants still have a lot of things that they -- they certainly have to lock down. better in lockdown, and it is easier for planning. tom: mayor de blasio yesterday, for those of you across the country, it is really pretty grim, the tough decisions he and the governor of new york state have to make. mario cuomo. i had to take a day off, francine, just to prepare for your birthday. i had my birthday, and francine's is worse than mine, folks, because it is closer to christmas, where everyone around here could care less about her birthday because christmas

is right there. francine: this is the reality of having children. if you are born december 15, you are at the home stretch to wrist miss. -- to christmas. my mother is making homemade lasagna with pesto. so thank you, tom, and the team. tom: i did not get homemade lasagna with pesto for my birthday. francine: next year. tom: leigh-ann gerrans with first word news in london. leigh-ann: good morning, tom. president-elect joe biden says it is time to turn the page on what he calls an unprecedented assault on democracy. he spoke hours after the electoral college sealed his win. 306oted that he won electoral college votes, the same that president trump did in 2016. trump callsresident the electoral college tally a landside. -- a landslide.

by his own standards, these numbers reflect a clear victory, and i respectfully suggest they do so now. leigh-ann: president trump offered no public reaction to the electoral college vote. now a grim milestone for the u.s. battle against the coronavirus. the death toll gone past 300,000. more than 600 hospitals across the country are receiving vaccines this week. givenrst shots are being to health care workers. president trump praised outgoing attorney general william barr done a "outstanding job." he is leaving this month after having crossed the president on two key issues. his claims of voter fraud investigation into joe biden's son. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more i am120 countries, leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine?

tom? tom: let's get a data check. equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. the trap is to go into a zombie state because there is not much going on yet. yet there is. it is interesting to look at the correlations and non-correlations out there. we will wait to see what the vix does with a love love 22.41, -- up 22.41.el the two-year yield, to four digits. 0.1170 was actually a bit lower. it was sitting three days in a row on a new lower bound of the lower two-year. that gets my attention with a solid negative stick, is what we call that, at 1.0000. that is as good as i can do. now a birthday data check with francine lacqua. birthday -- birthday treasuries

little changed. european stocks are mirroring u.s. futures, which you are seeing a bit of a rebound after the slide yesterday, but overall trading is pretty much mixed. they are looking at lingering worries of tougher lockdowns, and they look at exactly -- less travel because more restrictions, what it means for the travel industry. you can see oil droppin nine-month high on that concern. joe biden, officially the president elect after the electoral college confirmed his victory yesterday. it puts him of the 270 votes needed to win, and he will be inaugurated as the 46th president on january 20. joining us now is leslie vinjamuri, chatham house head of -- we have a million questions for you. is it now a done deal? does president trump move on? leslie: it is legally a done deal. of course, there are a few more

a done deal.it is i think the real turning point in many ways was the supreme court decision not to pursue the case. problemmber, the real for president-elect biden, now officially president-elect biden, is that he is facing a divided country. he's facing a house where house republicans have not supported him, a majority of them supported the texas led supreme court case to undo the results in four battleground states. he is also facing a republican electorate where 77% of republican voters think there has been fraud in the election. so the division across the public, in congress is going to be challenging after january 20 when he looks set to govern. we are seeing some of that play out again and again in the debate over fiscal stimulus, which we know is critical at a time when so many americans need the unemployment checks. but those sticking points on aid

to states, and on liability for covid, for businesses, schools, and other organizations, those are big sticking points for republicans, and democrats not agreeing. we are seeing the challenges of governing in a deeply polarized, deeply partisan congress. talkine: i know we want to about stimulus, but how significant is it that the attorney general steps down one month and five days before the new president becomes in charge? leslie: well, it is significant. at the end of the day, president trump has shown time and time again that when that loyalty is gone -- and remember, attorney general barr was as loyal as they came in the inner circle -- when that loyalty is gone, what is at stake for the country simply is no longer the primary consideration, but having that seat vacant is not a good thing.

we saw that in the defense department as well. the transition process continues to be fraught, but the big story is, as tom said earlier, the pandemic over everything else. the big news is a vaccination, but there is a lot of work to be done. tom: good morning from new york. i've got eight ways to go, but the time that we've got -- i want to harken back to the warfare. i read from allan nevins years ago on the 1880's and 1890's. we seem to be back there with the polarization of congress, where it is truly embedded. administration's have a honeymoon, or is it gone in this day and age? leslie: i think there is no honeymoon, and not only because of the depolarization across the united states and partisanship in the senate and house, it is also because joe biden will enter and take lead of a country

where well over 300,000 americans will have died and where the numbers will be continuing to accelerate and the need for economic recovery will be acute. those conditions sometimes lead people to rally and to forge compromises and to move forward, but that is not what we are seeing right now. thate not seeing any signs mitch mcconnell, if he remains a senate leader, depending on the results of those two races in .eorgia on january 5 if mitch mcconnell remains in position, it does not look like we will see that kind of compromise emerge, despite the strong personal relationship historically between biden and mcconnell. what we have seen in the past. tom: explain to us your estimation and chatham house's estimation of a glide path -- we have a fancy log chart of the deaths in america -- where 400,000 deaths is a cup of

coffee away, and 600,000 deaths is modeled by our wonderful steve dennis. by the fourth of july. that kind of pressure -- will that affect our congress, or are they immune to that like they are immune to doing stimulus? leslie: the problem, as we know, is that those deaths are highly distributed full it is not a pandemic that is having equal effect. the infection rate is high, but the death rate is just riveted -- the rates are higher amongst minorities, amongst low income groups. everyey are not affecting seated elected official the same in terms of their political calculations. very deeplso still a divide in the electorate between those who simply think the vaccination is there, we should move forward, open up the economy quickly, and keep going, and obviously the economic costs are high. and those who think we need to have a much tougher policy. so the divisions are in the

american electorate. they are in congress, and it doesn't -- it seems to be impervious to the rising number of deaths, that deep division. francine: how does president biden, when he comes into power, try to bridge that divide? leslie: i think the first thing come apart from the international agenda, which will be serious, what i think we are going to see a president really work the domestic policy agenda at the state level, at the local level. he has put people in the white house who would have been in foreign policy positions, people like susan rice, who is a woman of color, obviously, to focus on the domestic agenda. i think he's going to do his best to work congress to get more fiscal stimulus quickly. one key thing here is that the republican party holds a lot of the cards, will probably continue to hold a lot of the cards in the senate, and we do not know how their calculations

will change once president trump is out of office. surely he will continue to mobilize support, to rally the hard core of the republican party that are completely committed to him. but things will change. the space will open up. that will change the dynamics in the senate amongst the toublicans, and the need forge compromise, i think that will play a bit to biden's favor. but it is going to be very challenging work. a couple of good places for him infrastructure is widespread, bipartisan support, i think that will go well. but the second order in light of the grave circumstances right now and the need for fiscal stimulus and vaccination distribution, i think on some of that, especially with the able -- we will will be able to get a consensus. tom: i'm sorta speechless, folks, because we have to get

from tuesday onto wednesday, and hanging over all this is pardons. i did a search of the legal backed up of pardons, and i was shocked that the little information i found on the legality of it. is the pardon process of any given president and this president -- is it a mystery? leslie: i think the pardon process, historically it is there for a reason. reconciliation is important. protecting people from partisan politics, especially when you're transitioning from one -- a president from one party to one of another. there are strong reasons for the pardons. but it has become subject to pardons -- two partisan considerations, politicized in the current context. there are a number of days left in this presidency, and there are any number of things that are worrying. the use of pardons is one to

watch. at the president cannot pardon himself, and that i think something -- is something that the president is -- tom: state cases versus federal cases. what a disjointed interview, eight ways to go here. i believe kevin cirilli is said to be with us later on this money. coming up this morning, futures up 21, dell futures up 160. peter schaffrik with us from rbc. this is bloomberg. stay w

tom: good morning, everyone. thank you for being with us from

london and new york. it is an extraordinary moment. i know i've said that eight time this year -- eight times this year. but with the covid update at bloomberg news today, it is really a different memo today, and really, really serious come about cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. right now we recalibrate on the national economy. peter schaffrik is with us from rbc capital markets. how does the virus and the trend of the virus buttressed up against the good news of a vaccine -- how does that adjust or adapt your call for 2021? and i i think our call think frankly most people's call, was always predicated on a very rough winter, and i think we are now in the middle of it. it is one thing if you are sitting in autumn and predicting a grim winter, and when you're in the middle of it and see the cases rising, hospitalizations rising. this was unfortunately not

expected. you could see it coming for miles. now we have to go through this. as far as the market is concerned, the market has already implied that and is looking forward. the forward look, luckily, looks much better. that is also embedded in our forecast. we expect a fairly decent recovery coming out of this next year. tom: a decent recovery as well. what to central banks do? clearly fiscal is not happening. do central banks have to step it up even more even if we get to some turnaround midyear? peter: i think we have to be careful which distillation we are talking about. staying in europe for a second, i think very clearly fiscal is coming. it is coming with quite a force. particularly on the continent of europe but also in the u.k. the u.s. will have to see what the current negotiations, if they bring in anything -- we president andthe

power, what comes thereafter. clearly the central banks have already delivered quite a lot, and i reckon with the latest situation that we have, they cannot just sit there for the next six months and see how that pans out. francine: are we going to see inflation after six months, peter? peter: i think that is rather unlikely. we can talk about a little bit of technical inflation, but that is not real inflation. i think six months is way too short a time frame. we start when do worrying about debt? is it something for 2022, and what happens when investors start challenging debt levels as soon as mid-2021? when we look at household debts, they are not necessarily all that troublesome. that is not the issue. corporate debt is a different the flipsideiously

of corporate debt is investment. if you have high corporate debt levels, that means corporates will not make the same kind of investment as they otherwise would. i don't think investors will be worried about buying parts of it. the real question in my mind is how can we get corporate america, corporate europe to invest in an environment where debt levels are already relatively behind? this goes back to what the fiscal can do, maybe in ppp partnerships, something like that. tom, are you there? tom: ok, peter. we will come back. we had some technical difficulties, folks. we will come back with peter schaffrik. stay tuned, peter orszag from

lazard. upures up 21, dow futures 1.57. this is bloomberg. ♪

leigh-ann: this is "bloomberg surveillance." the federal trade commission has ordered some of the biggest tech companies to handover information on how they collect and use customer data. nine companies were mentioned, including amazon, facebook, and

youtube. sec is also asking about company advertising and user engagement practices and how these affect children and teens. credit suisse has signaled that business is considering a mixed performance in the first quarter. the investment bank is doing well with revenue higher than it was a year ago, but credit suisse warned that write-downs and legal positions will weigh on earnings. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: thank you so much. u.s. futures signaling a rebound after what we saw over the last couple of days. the same here in europe. looking at the european stoxx 600. u.k., they aree looking at germany. investors focusing on the vaccine rollout. trading is quite a little bit mixed. the dollar and the pound steady for the moment, but we have quite a lot of news when it comes to brexit shortly, and while investors are pricing in

optimism it at the start of vaccine shots, was ongoing concerns about whether a stimulus bill from a bipartisan group of lawmakers in the u.s. will gain traction. the virus, as tom said, continuing to rage in the u.s.. that threatens harsher restrictions across the nation. city mayor bill de blasio warning that people should be prepared for a full shutdown. my mentioned london, i mentioned the southeast, england, germany and others tightening measures. i'm also looking at the price of oil. this is because there are worries out there that extra restrictions mean extra travel restrictions, and therefore the re is dropping from a nine-month high. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i know this is difficult news, and that the business is

affected, it will be a significant blow. but this action is essential. >> if we don't change trajectory, we are going to go to shut down. and then your businesses are going to close. >> [speaking foreign language] is spreadingvirus faster than predicted. that is why the netherlands will be going into lockdown for five weeks. >> there is no such legislation such as a penalty so the only thing we can do is to ask people to cooperate. tokyo residents have been cooperating with us. >> i want to say that if we have it isny contacts, then our last christmas with our grandparents, we would have been negligent. we did not do that, ladies and gentlemen. tom: these are leaders from around the world dealing with what we have all dealt with in the last 24 hours. we each have our individual stories.

peterne spoke with schaffrik. i got a chart coming up which is frightening on this natural disaster. i want to go to the liberal economist of washington who says all of these suits and ties are out of their minds. we are looking at multiple trillions of dollars of income replacement. are we off the mark in our calculation of the stimulus necessary? peter: we have to differentiate between stimulus on the one hand and rich on the other. about incomelk substitutions in the here and downthe mandates for shut are very good reason. from a moral point of view,

substituting some of the income helping these people get over the bridge, that is necessary. it is necessary from an economic point of view because what could happen is liable businesses will go under and cannot come out even if they are allowed to operate in a normal environment. stimulus going forward is another thing. when we talk about coming out of this, we know there will be businesses close for good and we also know that we were already there before that. the question is how do you stimulate the economy in the environment that we are in in a way that we can regrow once the pen is over. these are two separate things. of: the labor economics michael fagan is something. he was standing at the end of

the queen's bid, this was the intruder who broke into buckingham palace twice, and he said to the queen there is just no jobs out there, i am paraphrasing. peter schaffrik, is that where we are right now? peter: this is not entirely true. when you look at the part of the economy that remains operational , when you see once we have reopened the economy over the summer how quickly employment did come back, that was one. however, there is one element where jobs will be destroyed, where they won't come back. there is going to be a higher residual unemployment on the other end of this tunnel and we afterwards what are we going to do, can we revise them so that the people who are working in those areas that are

no longer viable can find jobs again. that is different from the mandatory shutdowns that is viable once we seize -- cease to shut them down. francine: taking those into account, how much destruction will we see on the jobs front? we keep on hearing that the new economy which will be based on climate change, how much disruption will we need to retrain people to be in those jobs? answer, are estimates about where unemployment levels currently will sit if you take the substitution into account is quite significant. in the u.k. it could be as high as maybe even 10%. in europe, it could involve all parts. the question is how quickly can you reduce coming out of it. we will easily end up with 2% to

3% unemployment that has to be worked through and that takes time, easily one year, maybe more. francine: thank you so much, peter schaffrik, rbc capital markets. let's get straight to bloomberg first real news. leigh-ann: joe biden is calling on the american people to accept the outcome of the presidential election. that was after the electoral college sealed his victory. he calls on the country to turn the page on what he calls an unprecedented assault on democracy. president trump has no public reaction. more u.s. agencies were targeted by russian hackers. the department of homeland security was hit in the new york times says so or parts of the defense department. the washington post says the state department and national institutes of health were also hacked. federal agencies have been told

to disconnect software that the russians were manipulating to break into networks. in china the economic recovery is picking up. output was up 7% in retail sales grew 5%. china's economy is likely to be the only major one to expand this year, it is being boosted by strong demand by both home and abroad. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. ,ne of the great aspirations u.s. 10g to quote the year to experience is what 10-year.to francie -- that is what happened to francine lacqua.

, matts important here miller is on speaking terms with francine as well. is double the size and fourfold the size of mine. it is amazing. on behalf of all of us at bloomberg, francine, next year have your birthday five years closer to christmas. -- five days closer to christmas. francine: thank you. it is also good memories. we need to get those jackets back, the bloomberg surveillance jackets. valuable items. , ubs seniorjackets

advisor, very important here, a conversation on the moment we are in and the linkage of our markets to public policy. futures up 22%. this is bloomberg and it is her birthday. ♪

♪ good morning, everyone. tom keene and the birthday girl in london. futuressteenis without. up 28 --huw van steenis with us. you abouttalk with the experiment of negative interest rates. you are truly expert on this. out, 2019, 2020

and then all of a sudden, this horrific pandemic. is 2021 a to.4 -- point?-- tip huw: you look at the latest statistic, banks will make just 2% for the next three years. behink that is what needs to from the special funding program is so important. one of my concerns is one of the concerns of policymakers is is the bank small enough -- strong enough to lend to businesses when it has been such a tough environment.

i can see it continuously expended because of the society rates more corrosive by the day. tom: what is keeping the united kingdom -- what is keeping the united states from joining the negative rate experience -- experiment? huw: some of it is a matter of belief and some of it is a matter of fact. it is never a good experiment. japan has had low and negative rates, the japanese regional banks are the most unprofitable banks on the planet and that is why the japanese recently offered a special bonus rate to pay the bank to restructure. we think about the anglo-saxon world, australia, u.k., america, they have all contemplated negative rates but this is not something they want to get out of the toolbox. they fear that once they are there, there is no reversing.

why be tempted by this road that none of us want to get into -- this world that none of us want to get into? francine: are banks strong enough to fund the recovery? huw: happy birthday, francine. they are. they have been resilient. is almostn for us all comes from this year lending. u.k., 42 billion loans were guaranteed. they were never that strong enough. the larger banks are not strong enough to lend and there is lack of demand. there can be weak and strong. one thing we discussed is whether the pandemic, not only

has it accelerated digital gender -- i think that is something stronger banks just get stronger and i think this maud banks are going to find it rip -- the small banks are going to find it tough. francine: what happens when the loans expire and they don't have access to the funding that they need? will it become dangerous for the banks because they keep on lending? huw: it is a great question. the ppptates, some of programs were written off as grants. that is not the case in new york -- europe. is are the real concern these loans which are contingent will come back which they have to repay, whether they can get these written off. is the government guaranteed loan senior to any financing on

the recovery. economy regains course, some parts still under stress notwithstanding rebound trade, having to fuel businesses. it is important for us to make sure the pipes are clean. i think there is overhang of guaranteed lending, whether it is government or private sector, it will remain something. piece on important december 3, it is a real tour de force. i will get it up on twitter. it is a huge tour de force on where we are in our worldwide commercial banking. i don't want to go sherlock holmes on you, but the issue is we got through this year with banking solidity. we have japan, we have europe coming like japan. anglo-saxonassume

banking becomes like japan and that we really have to worry about the barking dog? tom it is a great question, . it has been on my mind. i strongly believe that the oneer banks with the scale, thing we will be debating is largely accelerating. you can invest three to five years in the next 12 months. and aequires the pockets scale of the larger pockets -- that requires the pockets -- deep pockets. i think the challenge of a lack of scale is going to weigh on the banks. when i did my work for the system is a healthy

cross for one. the real challenge is the lack of profitability. that is my concern. i think the anglo-saxons will avoid that. huw van steenis, he is with ubs and formally working with the bank of england. ,oming up, ebrahim rahbari citigroup's global -- head of global analysis. this is bloomberg.

francine: -- this is bloomberg surveillance. according to the international energy agency. demand will clearly be lower for longer than expected. worldency forecast for consumption following a new wave lockdown. is neil atkinson, headed oil industry and markets. -- head of oil industry and markets. when you look at the potential market disruptors into next year, i was reading a note that

seeing we did see oil at $20 if opec were to rupture. is this the key year we can see this happen? that is a very interesting piece of analysis. yes, it could happen if we get a combination of further significant downgrades in demand because of the covid-19 crisis and at the same time, a breakdown of producer discipline on the side of the opec-plus producers. so far, that has not happened. compliance has been pretty good. francine: i like that. could, might and maybe. willyou look at opec, they meet on january 4 to decide whether the market can take more oil after the 500,000 it will add to the market next month. could the market take that much oil?

in the balance we published, we assume there is a scenario that they will increase by 500,000 during the early part of 2021 each month. on that basis and on the basis deterioration, stocks draw in the first part of 2021 although not by very much. there is not much headroom for oil thanupply more they currently anticipate. communique that was published at the end of the meetings, they talked about this 500,000 barrels a day each month. in one of the press conference is following, i think it was the sounding minister that said that could be 500,000 barrels a day -- saudi minister. there is a suggesting that the

implementation of the deal could be flexible. we praise the current deal as being flexible and sophisticated and it shows that they are concerned about the short-term fragility of the market. that is why they have this monthly procedure which they meet again for the first time on the fourth. tom: they teamed up at door two years ago, i don't know anybody who has pounded the spreadsheets of oil and supply and demand like you have. eia, all of at the these different firms, and now at the international energy question, do you believe the spreadsheets? do you believe the actual reported supply and demand integrity we are modeling for next year? very you hit on a important point. i have been looking at these numbers for nearly 40 years.

there has been a huge improvement over that period of time in the timeliness of data. that is great. we have pretty good data. they could be better, but it is pretty good. anotherlem we have is world where china -- the number we describe as demand for china is derived from our assessments of net trade and invested production. it is not an officially published figure. the other uncertainty we have is the level of reported oil stocks in china which is also not an officially reported number. before banging on too long about this, we were in a meeting recently where we pointed out that the number of countries that are reporting data to the joint oil data initiative has

fallen in the last five or six 36rs from a large number, all reporting data now down to only 14. if anything, we have less transparency. this is a factual point -- there are 19 countries that are part of the opec-plus supply agreement and the last time we looked, only 8 of them supplied data regularly to the jodi initiative. transparency is not what it could be and i accept your premise at the beginning of this that data is not all it could be and yes, the underlying picture could be different from what we are seeing. i don't believe directionally, we are wrong. we called that correctly. segment,as a little , the head informativeneil atkia

of the oil industry and markets and decades of experience and the always difficult oil demand. $50.44 onnow, american oil. $47 as well. i want to look at futures. dow futures at 29,000. 154. spx of 21. the vix, we will see how that opens up your two year yield is my number one statis. n, the gentlemanm .azar, peter orszag this is bloomberg.

tom: this morning, a hard

lockdown, a third wave, it is all the same. the virus spreads exponentially. cases to hospitalizations to vaccine, there is a but 600,000 american deaths extrapolates to the fourth of july. here is the door, what is your harry, it is all the same. -- what is your hurry. the two year yield drifts ever lower. chairman powell will have limited degrees of freedom. fed day here, i believe it is tomorrow. good morning, everyone. bloomberg surveillance. i am tom keene recovering from a birthday and in the trenches of a december birthday, francine lacqua. francine: i thought we were moving on? tom: it is un-american to have lasagna with pesto, discussed. francine: