>> how do wages go up when there are so many people out of work? >> when you look at hiring, you are seeing those layoffs increase. that is going to be a concern going forward. >> the really important thing to keep in mind as we are starting a brand-new economic cycle right now. >> i think a lot of the standing stimulus has been priced in. central banks have lots themselves into being stuck at their effective lower bounds. >> it is not that we are going to grow in 2021. enough?ll it be >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa

abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. on bloomberg radio come on bloomberg television, it is a most interesting, diverse tuesday. futures up 24, but far more, it is about the different definitions of lockdown, new lockdown, tier three, and the rest of the language which simply identifies a pandemic that won't go away. jonathan: i think the easier way to put it is direction of travel. we are heading in the wrong direction. in germany, and the u.k. in london, in new york, warning people that we could be heading for a lockdown as well. that has been the tug-of-war over the last couple of months. the forward outlook is brighter. the news from moderna, we are moving forward with that potentially later this week. the vaccinations can't come soon enough. i think governor newsom in california yesterday said the amount of doses they were receiving from pfizer was in-line with the amount of cases they received on sunday. tom: we've got a great guest

coming up to really dive into the 2021 views that are out there. there's only one view right now from every single guest, whatever their politics. we need fiscal support. does that $700 billion number get any traction in the markets? lisa: i think that would be at least confirmation of the expectation. they will be some bridge to the other side. that seems to be what is big and. the question is, what happens if they get nothing done? what happens if a stalemate continues with the expectation of the january 5 elections, the runoffs in georgia possibly resulting in some kind of verdict? what happens if all of those businesses are forced to shut down because there are no customers? x trillionsone from of dollars down to a working number of $900 billion, and elevate sudden we are 20% below that. seriously, from where you sit, this isn't funny.

you have the united kingdom with a drop in gdp that went back to annn and and -- to queen and i believe 1709. is there any stability in your united kingdom? jonathan: no, there is a sense that it could get worse. that starts tonight at midnight going into monday morning. this market is not priced off that, though. there's two economies. there's the economy you and i talk about at the moment, on the economy in the back half of 2021 that this market has been living in, so it is a great place, and i hope we get there faster, but that is the story. that is where attention is, and that is why it feels so uncomfortable as well. the conversation i believe we had in april was looking for a bridge to july. forget about that. if you take the extrapolation of the amount of deaths in the united states, all you need to know is 400,000 is in the

vicinity of the third week of march, which i know is truly unimaginable, but that is the way the math falls. she knows her math better than good. from the london school of economics, seema shah joins us with principal global. her work with her majesty's treasury, with pricewaterhousecoopers, and now at principal. i thought your note was extremely nuanced down to the soft give of 2021. 2021?ill win in seema: i'm sorry, can you repeat the question? tom: that's all right, that's does to me all the time. what does 2021 look like if you are so selective? what will be the winning sector of 2021? seema: it is such an imprint question going into 2021. i know this is probably

shocking, we still like mega cap tech. it is not our favorite, but we still think it is really important you have an allocation because we think the magus speed bumps -- the modest speed bumps are not a very smooth one. we also like cyclicals. , within the value space. because of all of the pandemic scarring and all of the problems coming up, the most important thing is just distinguishing between good and bad companies, and that sounds really obvious, but some companies are going to have taken on some horrible debt that at some point will come to the surface. you need companies that can weather the storm which is still going on through the first half of 2021 and are able to come out on the others that. . others -- and are able to come out on the others

in one part. the vaccine, if it is successfully distributed, it is a game changer. ishink the road to that logistical. all of it take you threw two about covid q1 of next year, but it is not enough. you are seeing restrictions in london that keep coming. we can't get through the winter waves, even despite the vaccine. on top of that, to us the biggest problem is vaccine acceptance e. surveys are suggesting only 70%, less in some countries, would be willing to take the vaccine. that and youwith will have protection in your portfolios. jonathan: we were pouring over

the bank of america fund manager survey this morning, and what tom doubts is when people know start to will have to think about an economy starting to improve over -- starting to improve. it is not that critical mass yet. your note seems to go away from the consensus jon and i were talking about, the strongest ever when it comes to certain trades, at least on this fund manager survey. i am wondering, is this a tactical positioning, trying to take advantage of the overweight in small caps and the mood to cyclicals going it's that, going against the go to your of trade. if the some of that as a long-term trade? seema: it's a great question. some of it is certainly a long-term. we believe in mega cap tech

until the regulations really start to turn, and i think we still got a bedtime before then. we still at the u.s., and i think that is a structural space that we like. europe should be doing really well, but is just a perennial disappointment. we think the macro story just continued to weigh it down. that is a real structural and cyclical play. special is that they come together with or without the vaccine. if you look at asia, as long as you think that the dollar is going to week that's going to be week next year. tom: is the pop in revenue, or in surprisingly good margins because of the actions of corporations? is i still there think some movement. you can look at the companies. what have they been doing for

the last year? one of the key risks for next year's whether there is potentially fed tightening, but the other thing is companies who have made it through 2020, when -- intointo fund 21 2021. we expect to see a lot of european countries interest rates start to rise and struggle through the first quarter of next year. fantastic to catch up. stay well. that is seema shah, principal global investors global strategist. tom: we make jokes about it, jon. we got this thing going where ferro and lisa read everything and i don't. that would be a complete fiction. but there is some renewal.

[laughter] you look at what seema shah did in a nuanced note, where they are looking for tech to restain. it is worthk watching the real yield. jonathan: since this show has gone totally off the rails, i just heard from alliancebernstein. about 20n the phone in minutes. he made the final table into vegas in two weeks of the main event of the world series of poker. supposedly, the prize money will be 1.5 million dollars, plus another $1 million if you the international bracket. i am hoping that we can get him to talk about this. tom: that's like "the queen's gambit." jonathan: something like that come about with cars.

lisa: that's where you can make money, i guess. jonathan: i hope we can get him on the phone in about 20 minutes and discuss with him, if of course he is telling the truth. this comes from gershon himself, so who knows? he plays pretty of tricks on me. lisa: maybe some of that triple leverage cash can be a tax allocation. tom: it can be a tactical allocation. i am the worst poker pull your known to mankind. got fleeced. i lost all of my budget for the first semester. jonathan: were you having a drink? tom: i was having that coors light. jon, you are so lucky you missed it. jonathan: i can't imagine you ever drinking coors light. emma: i am so old -- tom: i am so old, it was before bud light.

>> jonathan: you've been who you 12 --nce you are about she's been who you are since you were about 12, 60 years. lasses, bowtie. we are up, 0.6 percent, 0.7%. this is global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. with the first word news, i'm emma chandra. the food and drug administration says mother has coronavirus vaccine is safe and effective . next up for the vaccine, an fda advisory panel will look at the date and recommend this week. recommendations could lead to the be improved in the u.s.. . vice president biden said he is

be improved ino the united states. mr. biden: at the time, president trump called his own election tally a landslide. these numbers represented a clear victory then, and i respectfully suggest they do so now. trump offered no public reaction to the electoral college vote. price -- trump p president trump praise outstanding attorney general william barr of doing a fantastic job. the president criticized bar in an interview last weekend. the crude oil glut left behind will clear by next year. aea says they

overestimated construction coming out of lockdowns. . global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm emma chandra. i'm emma chandra. this is bl - i sent your new prescription to the pharmacy. - any idea how much it will cost? - you have a choice. insurance or goodrx. - i have insurance. - insurance is not what it used to be. people struggle to get their prescription covered and prices keep rising. i recommend goodrx. you get free coupons to save on your prescriptions. - [narrator] compare prices to get the best discounts. - goodrx, smart. - [narrator] stop paying too much for your prescriptions. download the free app today.

>> the sexing has gone through clinical -- this vaccine has

gone through clinical trials larger than other clinical trials. it has gone through the independent vaccine monitoring board. jonathan: alex azar, health and human services secretary, trying to instill confidence in the process that is going to roll out in the next couple of months as vaccines begin in the united states of america. good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the story of the market so far this morning, a good one. risk assets up-ice 0.7% on the s&p 500. we are up 24 points after four straight days of losses on the benchmark. euro-dollar coming in. we give up the gains of the morning, now down about 0.1%. in the bond market, yields just a little bit higher. we hang out at about 90 basis points on the u.s. ten-year. going into that federal reserve meeting tomorrow, dolonc and waiting to see if we get any clarity around that asset purchases program because that

could be a powerful force going vaccine rollout is effective and fast, yields are going one place, and it is not down quickly. tom: i take your point. a really is about the vaccine, the efficacy of it, g it distributed, and seeing what the results are. dr. passaretti a little bit ago telling us that the second shot is three weeks out. what we have again tried to do is talk to pros. califf, they work he has done with google is one thing. he has an expert in cardiology, and particularly expert at the nitty-gritty of clinical trials, and we are thrilled he could join us this morning. i want you to give a score to the fda on what we have seen in the recent weeks. it seems every article the media is skewed by politics or emotion or angle.

you are the grizzled pro. how has your fda done? califf: i think what's were markable is the fda has done an a plus job. the politics have swirled around. there's a lot of stuff in the press, pressure and all this, but fundamentally, the fda worked with the industry to do the right development of the vaccines, the right clinical they can assess any public view the results of the clinical trials. so i would give the workforce an a plus.workforce within the workforce, is there a risk to taking on the vaccine? dr. califf: there's a remote possibility there might be some tiny little cardiac risk for some people, but it would be a very rare thing. we have tens and thousands of

people who have been in the clinical trials. no evidence of any toxicity at all, other than some side effects you would normally see with a vaccine. so if there is a risk, it is very small. when you vaccinate millions of somewhereu will see events occur, with almost any vaccine. that is far away from the benefits we are seeing. lisa: sort of the heart of the question is will this vaccine be any more dangerous because the process was expedited. that is the fear of some people who are perhaps unwilling to take the vaccine. what do you say to them? a 100%iff: we can have conversation where it is not more dangerous for the first 100 days because, even though you are expedited, the trials were done like any other clinical ,rials that a randomized

everything that happened was recorded. it is there in the public view. it has been analyzed in the penalty body of the fda, which is a really important role. it is not just a company analyzing the data, or even the researchers. you have this third check of the fda itself, doing an independent analysis. so people should really be comfortable that we've got a lot of data showing that this is a safe and effective vaccine. lisa:lisa: in the meantime, we see the number of cases rising genetically. how much will this vaccine actually change the trajectory of the pandemic? dr. califf: you've heard a lot of talk from people, which i think is quite appropriate, and springikely to be late before we have a major effect

come but it is not right to think of this has just sort of a binary yes or no kind of thing. we will see a gradual reduction in the transmission of the iris as the number of people who are vaccinated increases, combined with the number of people who have already been infected. probably most important todd during the vaccination period, when we are rolling all of these people through, we will make an enormous difference in the number of people who died the time of the pandemic as well. tom: at the margin, how do we convince or force anti- vaxxers to get back into society with vaccinations? is it the job of government? is? it the job of business is at the job job -- is it the

of business? is it the easy job of transportation, saying you can't ride unless you get a vaccine? dr. califf: people who are deeply imbued in the ideology of anti-vax, i don't think we are going to change their minds, and i don't think it is necessary for the most part that we force them to get fascinated -- that get vaccinated when you get them , their families and everybody else. there is a massive campaign already underway to get knowledgeable people to speak out. very important in all of this are the clinicians. the doctors, the nurses, respiratory therapists, people who know about health care in vaccinated.

my son is getting vaccinated thursday. most people i've talked with, even sophisticated professors at duke university, what they tell me is i am going to ask my doctor. for other people, it may be the nurse they sever quickly. - they see very frequently. jonathan: measured conversations like this one are important ones, so we appreciate your time. there, verily lifesciences advisor. a month ago, qantas airlines, chief executive of that company, said if you want to get an international flight at some point, we will require you to have a covid-19 vaccine. i have no idea whether everyone follows or if they will defiance your that. if they will be in

defiance to that. tom: this moderna headline this morning, it is important. jonathan: it is important. hopefully we get another vaccine before the weekend. in the united states of america, for our audience worldwide this morning, good morning. new york loo every year, we set out to do one thing: help the world believe in holiday magic. and this year was harder than ever. and yet, somehow, you all found a way to pull it off. it's not about the toys or the ornaments but about coming together. santa, santa, you're on mute! just wanted to say thanks. thanks for believing. wannit's timeight and for aerotrainer. a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time.

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jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on bloomberg tv and radio. futures up .7 percent after four day of losses on the s&p, the longest losing streak since september. i mentioned yesterday, the consensus target into 2020 was 3280 on the s&p 500. .665 the consensus target was 3280 before anyone knew about covid-19 in this market. that is the story right now. switch up the board. the s&p up 12.9%. big advance on the back of a huge policy response. that has been the story for the long end of this curve.

10 year yield 90 basis points. year yield up about a basis point. it is about the next 24 hours. tomorrow morning, retail sales print in the united states. 24 hours from now people think the retail sales print will be negative. the month on month read could be negative. it is about the economic data and the federal reserve. we talked about it repeatedly through the last couple of months. we want the clarity on the asset purchase program from the federal reserve. will we get it and will the extent the bond buying, which means if you're looking for that, you might be disappointed. hours, italk about 24 would look at 24 days. that gets us through a late jobs report in january. michael gapen joins us from barclays. you look at december and then you have this wonderful phrase,

looking at the hope that is out there. what is the character of our hope and will our hopes be dashed? michael: i do not think our hopes will be dashed but i think the next several months will be difficult. the data is slowing, momentum is ebbing. restrictions on activity are decreasing mobility. it is showing up in higher frequency data points. the hope and optimism around the medium-term is anchored around vaccines, which are now being distributed. we have a blend of near-term pessimism with medium-term optimism. given what we know, i do not think the hopes will be dashed on the rocks. i think we will get there but it will be bumpy. lisa: when you talk about bumpy, there seems to be more weakness in the manufacturing sector. the empire manufacturing survey came in at 4.9 versus 6.3. this is the first read to get a

sense of the december data. how much are you counting on manufacturing to remain robust as services are unable to employ people and take off as people tried to social distance? michael: we are depending on it. it is our view that manufacturing and factory output still has room to run to catch up from where demand is. industrial production is 5% below where we were in february despite the strong demand from households for goods. we are expecting the manufacturing date of the holdup , even as some of the personal spending data fades. we think factory output has room to pick up, not just to meet demand but to replenish inventory, which has been down. we are counting on it to hold things in place. this will likely come at the end of the first quarter. jonathan: still work to do for fiscal authorities.

some people think for the federal reserve. what you expect on the forward guidance front in 24 hours? something thatk qualitatively ties how long the fed will be buying assets to achieving the dual mandate. they have anchored rate hikes around threshold of achieving maximum employment, getting inflation to two, expecting and overshoot of inflation. all they are saying is we will keep buying until we are confident we are on the path to that outcome. right now they are saying we are buying assets over the coming months. that is not long enough of a time horizon. something qualitative in nature about confidence the economy is on a recovery path and we expect to be meeting our dual mandate. to me this is not a big change. this is about aligning the language with where markets are already priced in with what fed members are already saying. i do not envision this is any

big change forthcoming from the fed in terms of guidance. ,isa: to tie this all together the consensus is looking past the pain and looking towards a post-pandemic world, what would you have to see in the higher frequency data to change the view and account for greater degree of scarring? fed, it wouldhe have to show up in the labor market. as tom mentioned there is the late report in january that will come out around january 8. that shows a market deterioration, so we are losing jobs rather than adding them at a slower pace, that changes the calculus for the fed. they are losing jobs, then may feel more inclined to do something as we move into march, whether that is change the composition or increase the pace of purchases. my guess is that would also let a fire under fiscal policy if we do not have a package in place

by that point. at the end it would come back to the labor market. jonathan: always appreciate your time. great to catch up as always. michael gapen. about 20 minutes ago i said we have breaking news. we can build on that story with gershon distant felt. the final night of the 2020 world series of poker and gershon gets a seat at the table. can you walk me through your news and it is great to break this news on bloomberg surveillance. gershon: good morning. how are you? jonathan: very well. not as good as you. ofshon: it was a little bit a condensed version this year, the world series of poker. most of it was plate online until they got down to the final nine players. i the opportunity to play online , so it was two days of intense

poker. usually it is held over 10 days. i do not usually have 10 days due to my job. i was able to play and i made the final table. poker is a lot like investing. decisions based on probability with incomplete information. i have dabbled in poker over the years. have not have as much time to play as i would like given my full-time job is investing, but i was gratified to make a final table. tom: congratulations. maybe it is like the queens gambit where she sees the chess pieces on the ceiling and uc see cards. what is the number one mistake the 700 people made who did not make it? what is the number one thing not to do in losing money at poker? gershon: the same thing as in investing. it is thinking you know too much. being overconfident, thinking

you know exactly what the other person has, thinking you know the exact right moves in realizing the future is uncertain, realizing you do not know when the next cargo, -- when the next card will come. like life and in poker, there's uncertainty. there's little but of luck, sometimes a lot of luck. in the end, still does win out. lisa: i will beat -- i do not know, debbie downer -- you have to know what you do not know and know when you are overconfident. do you feel there's too much confidence in markets? know aboutdo not now. i think there is too much confidence in general. people believe they know everything. , i've are hardwired studied a lot of behavioral toance, people are hardwired feel stories.

we like to create a mosaic, the therefore xthis, and y and z. the world is a lot more complex. one of the most influential things i have read is a book by a former poker player. it is called thinking in bets. something i would recommend to everyone. it talks about how in life you have to look at everything as a series of decisions. realizing there's a lot you know, but for everything you know there are so much more you do not know. if you take that approach to poker,o investing, to not only will you make better decisions, you be much happier. lawyers of my divorce sent me that book. lisa: [laughter] the honor of interviewing ed thorpe years ago.

what did you learn from ed thorpe? i have not read ed thorpe tremendously. i have learned a lot from many authors. i tend to learn the most from those that are less certain about things. when people put out a thesis and are so sure of themselves, you tend to doubt them. i have always found i learned the most from people who are humble and those that realize there's a lot more they do not know then that they do now. jonathan: always great to catch up with you. i was going to finish with the year end target on the s&p 500 for 2021 and see if you respond with confidence and conviction, but i doubt it. good luck. we will be in touch no doubt. that was spirited, wasn't it? lisa: i think it is fabulous. good luck. tom: i am picking up snowshoes.

it will snow. lisa has the alpine tubular esowshoes for when she portag with the canoe. i am looking at the woodlands. -- at the wood ones. will cox and somebody. they wanted me to get in a motel 6 near where we are. lisa: i think i am staying there too. tom: i will snowshoes to work. lisa: jonathan is checking out. jonathan: are you done? tom: we are getting ready for the week. out atn: he checked 6:59:30, before the show started. firmly checked out. i get to check out in two minutes. tom: one of your other properties. jonathan: play the music.

there is the music. lisa: look at that. jonathan: turn the music up. that is glorious. that music never sounded better. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. jonathan: i do not think -- tom: i do not think it is the same liverpool. with the first word news, i am emma chandra. joe biden is calling on the american people to respect the outcome of the election. after the electoral college confirmed his victory, he called on the country to turn the page after what he called an unprecedented assault on democracy. it turns out four u.s. agencies were targeted by russian hackers. the department of homeland security were hit and the new york times says there were parts of the defense department.

the washington post says the state department and the national institute of health are also hacked. in china, and economic recovery is picking up speed. industrial output was up 7% in retail sales grew 5%. china's economy is likely to be the only major one to expand this year. it is being boosted by strong demand in home -- at home and abroad. the city of london could face the toughest coronavirus restrictions as early as tomorrow. infection spread out of control and hospitalizations are rising. threethe so-called tier limit, pubs, bars, and independent entertainment venues would be forced to close. arroughs percentage of -- percentage of american homeowners are looking to delight mortgage payments. -- to delay mortgage payments. it rose to its highest level

since august according to the mortgage bankers association and could eventually lead to more closures. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am emma chandra. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the chinese market will never be like the international market.

the international market will never be able to suit into a chinese market. there'll be enough middle ground where they do intersect dirt it is -- they do intersect. it is in that intersection where hong kong will find the most relevant voltage play. -- the most relevant role to play. jonathan: that was charles lee. alongside of vocal tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up, kate moore of blackrock will be joining me. li's life has changed. it is interesting to hear that. hong kong 2021, what does that look like. jonathan: it has changed a lot this year. lisa: have any more days? three? tom: he is counting the hours. counting down. jonathan, go away. lisa: the real calendar. jonathan: three more days left

for jonathan in 2020. tom: the s&p up 25, dow futures up 1.60 -- up 162. we will do what we love to do with barry ritholtz and that is rip up the script. you can do that with him. his podcast a been interesting. barry, there was a young child at st. paul's in concorde whose , but whatayed cards she did was turn the cardplaying into a lifework, and the book we were just talking to gershon distant felt about, you interviewed her about poker and about our behavior. this is the year where we need ms. duke to tell us how to behave into the next year. what would she say? barry: probably the single biggest take away i got from the book was what she described as "resulting."

resulting is the tendency poker players and investors have when they look at the outcome of a variable, they look at the result in they draw the conclusion that what they should have done was what would have led to that result, completely ignoring all the unknowns come all the variables come all the randomness that may have led to all the unknowns, all the variables, all the randomness that may have led to that result and discounts probabilities. tom: this is heavyweight academics. there is a book that is accessible. jonathan was talking that up eld on his waynf to las vegas. thinking in bets. go to cache 2020. a huge body of people got that wrong. what is your bet for 2021? that thee fact

calendar year is flipping over in december is absently meaningless to these longer-term underlying trends that drive the economy, the drive corporate profits, that drive the stock market. tom: stop, stop, this is critical. what he just said is absolutely the most important thing in investing. forget about the calendar. go. barry: what is the underlying driver of the current market in the current economy? we have previously discussed the recovery where 30% or so of people who work from home, the white-collar professional workers are doing fine. forced into a furlough or layoff situation because of the pandemic are not. we now have the vaccine in the united states. we are seeing it begin to be

distributed by sometime next year, let's caught the second quarter. will begin the process of adding back to normal. how much of that is already built into the stock market is anybody's guess. we have been anticipating this for a a while. we can start to look at things from a more traditional perspective and stop it falling as to what happens next. at least the economy will start to resemble something approaching normal with a bunch of caveats. lisa: to complete the theme of making smarter decisions and thinking in bets, with the moment we are in whether such a heavy consensus about the more optimistic moment you say increasingly is priced in. does it make sense to go against the consensus by virtue of positioning and probability, or is this a much trickier equation when you look at the scene at

hand? barry: i have made a couple of those bets and they are always nerve-racking. one of the things you learn when you are on the opposite side of the trade from the crowd is that for the most part, the crowd gets it right. it is not a coincidence that momentum and persistency and trends are such important parts of trading. it is not usually a minute by minute or day by day energy that is driving a particular sector or market or economy. trendsroad secular pushing things in a given direction. guessing when that friend ends, and i use the term guessing very precisely, making that against the crowd, there is a very brief moment when you can do that and be right. most of the time it is a challenging and money-losing exercise. tom: thanks a much, barry ritholtz. love that.

podcast,ty of the 40ie duke on and others, a to 60 minute conversation with these experts. upures up 26, dow futures 175. four days down in all. i have to admit i am not focused on the market data so much, but the news flow we are seeing right now, particularly on the pandemic. i kid you about grim, but it is grim. lisa: is grim and hopeful, this is the binary we are in in december 2020. the pandemic numbers are getting worse, but the moderna vaccine, which the fda said seems to be effective and safe is a bait deal. it does notct is have to be refrigerated at the incredibly cold temperatures as the pfizer vaccine, which means perhaps it can have a

distribution process that is easier. these are key aspects at trying to get everybody vaccinated and trying to get us vacationing and you back in your wooden snowshoes you will be trekking in from motel 6. tom: they have the short ones in the long ones and the big fancy tail. lisa: i cannot wait. tom: they work on park avenue. they do not work on lexington. it is actually beautiful, snowy manhattan, when it comes down, until it is a mess. we may see that in a couple days. i want to run through the data. we have been remiss on that. upures of 20, dow futures 174, 29,955. german yields are not playing. ..s. yields play i will call bonds a churn. the dollar a churn over the last couple of days.

commodities a churn. you get the picture. lisa: anymore churning? tom: we will see. coming up on thestephen corwin,k presbyterian. stay with us worldwide on bloomberg radio and bloomberg television. ♪

♪

jonathan: from new york and london for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. "the countdown to the open" starts right now with futures up 26 on the s&p 500. we begin with the big issue. vaccinations underway. the threat of lockdown steadily growing. governor cuomo with a warning for new york. governor cuomo: we could be headed for a shutdown, and shut down is something to worry about. that is really something to worry about, because all of these businesses, closed. we go back to where we were. jonathan: warnings throughout the nation as infections surging . americans are looking to congress for action. lawmakers calling on leadership to get it done. >> this is our consensus. it is ready to go. >>