>> there's an argument to be made that hasn't gone up too far or too fast? >> money could be put to work. i don't get continue at the pace it has. >> permanent layoffs increased. >> it is possible you see numbers disappoint. >> a lot of this has been priced in. >> the way people are spending, the timing of that spend has shifted. >> companies that made it through 2020, when you get to 2021 some may find it too difficult to keep going. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance live. a stormy new york city.

tom keene, that is the sound of the dollar rolling over. you know the dollar rolling over his front and center, what observe from chairman powell? jonathan: what a substantial progress. could you picture that meeting that goes through the statement? they have a conversation afterwards and you know what the first question is going to be, they will ask you what substantial progress toward your goal. do you have an answer? goes into the news conference it is the first question and what does he say? it means exactly what it says. right now it it is not a problem. in six months time it might define what it says for him. tom: i have been asking everybody. as you know you will get a straight answer from david rosenberg. theust told us here canadian finance minister yesterday or the day before finally started talking about

the bottom line is you will hear this from every single leader from beijing around the world about this weak dollar. we are there right now. cable 136, that is broad-based. lisa: are we actually going to bottom out? i will say to your conversation, the first thing they will ask you. he did his job even though he disappointed market expectations coming out and adjusting the theypurchases he expressed will remain for the foreseeable future. you raise a good point. six months from now, what do we see and how do we communicate? much looking to the exact expectation is the that the trend line. the biggest increase in jobless claims since september.

are we going to see that general increase as we see lockdowns? a.m., i'm looking out for this the fda committee is meeting to discuss moderna's covid vaccine. very exciting. moderna a little bit lower today in premarket trading. people are hopeful this vaccine you do not have to refrigerate at the incredible low temperatures. possibly making it easier to distribute. today might be the day. we might be getting that $900 billion stimulus plan we were talking about yesterday. a lot of people are expecting $600 of direct payments to continuess plus it for the unemployment benefit. really interested to see whether they could actually push this across. markets are basically pricing it in as a given. we might get a deal down in d.c. we have a chairman willing to buy the debt.

it is important to see the forecast go up in the trajectory for policy. for some people, that is easy. that is exactly what it is. it is passive easing. things might get better. we won't step in and ruin the party like we did last time. look at the bank of england and those headlines. they say bank of england says unusually uncertain. rest of thethe global economy is unusually uncertain? like tottenham losing to liverpool, things would be uncertain. the policy from the fed is really clear. littleairman is still a

bit all over the place. he seemed very distracted at times when he should have been ready to give straight answers to straightforward questions. and: i don't disagree markets did not freak out. yields remained completely under control. by all accounts he disappointed on the headline in terms of changing policy. telling. he was not that clean and still markets were disappointed. jonathan: i just don't think we should define the chairman's performance on where the market goes. we brought up the sustainability of the debt down in washington. the federal debt in the united states. we talked about real borrowing costs. a way of saying it is sustainable. that is the federal reserve keeping borrowing costs and keeping the physical stats in the united states sustainable.

i think that is a bit of a problem. it is not a problem now, it is a problem in the future. being overcome by events. on this show one of those themes is weak dollar. what does it mean for everybody else. jonathan: here's the market action this morning. head toward all-time highs on the s&p 500. point 37,ollar, 122 up one third of 1%. no drama here. a lot of people thought this might be a day of reckoning for treasuries. wells fargo's head of strategy.

does that mean? momentum strategies have gone too far. everyone during the recession ran to mendham strategies. they bid them up to a level i don't think is sustainable. 2003, 2009, you have a recession and everyone gives them up to a level that is not sustainable. -- they run for momentum. next thing you know somebody says we have this event would, which isn't true. we have a point of inflation which is what happens with momentum strategies. you make a deal with the devil. it continues to go up and performs. but it turns, it turns very badly. given the unusually uncertain in the united kingdom and united states and everywhere and, what is your revenue

income statement call? what is your fundamental call with what the stock market will do. ? stockmarket call is very pedestrian, mid-single digit returns. we have been saying is if you want higher returns or more competitive rates of return, you need to look down the market capitalization. covid data add more and start going into the financials. noa: right now, you said mo, the price of admission is too high. what you do with your money? opposite of momentum is contrarian. i will sound like a broken record. small caps have worked for the last couple of weeks and months. if you look at a multiyear basis they have really underperformed. you look for things that give you more value it will work in an early recovery.

in could find that financials, industrials, you could find that in the commodity space. we want to be diversified but we want you to have these certain characteristics in your portfolio. do you stay in the united states for that? chris: you go across the globe. it works better overseas. the u.s. is very growth heavy, tech heavy. you could source that in a number of different places. the rest of the world is going to act a lot better in 2021. tom: if that is the case, where is the opportunity now? is it running away from us? some of these are moonshot trajectories. chris: which is why we say we are anti-mo. there will be a day of reckoning. the value you are paying with the cost of admission is just too high. when you have an alternative, when the economy begins to recover, people come back.

they want the old economy and they will run very quickly from it. to answer your question, every day we go higher we feel like we are stealing from tomorrow. there is a limited amount of opportunity and it is getting less and less every day. anti-mo, you have been home with the kids too long. chris: you could not be more right. jonathan: great to catch up. our best to you and the family. what is anti-mo? tom: it is a factor thing. jonathan: thanks for that, tom. tom: i had a tough morning. slush, shows up with the big suv thing. it was in a hummer but it was joined norma's -- ginormous. i got here in four minutes. jonathan: i got a message at

1:00 eastern. i know how long it would take to walk to the office. it is not four hours. lisa: what was the email at 1:00 a.m.? anathan: some nonsense about football game or something. fromwoken up to lyrics africa, the song, literally. tom: todo! jonathan: do you want me to sing it? you need the song. we will have to get someone to play the song. lisa: i have a question. how much of the fed conference did you watch and how much of the game? tom: look at her. it anded about 70% of 30%. .'m doing the bed wars thing i'm in school virtual learning

and i'm doing bed wars on the side. lisa: we are still on air. tom: rich miller opened up and i could see he had them on in the background. he is looking at the liverpool win. were doing know you this during the news conference. the dollar weaker, down 6/10 of 1%. good morning. this is bloomberg. [laughter] ♪ karina:karina: congressional leaders are close to an agreement on an almost $900 billion aid package. it includes a $600 payment for individuals. what is not included? aid for state and local governments and lawsuit liability protection. federal reserve chair jay powell sees light at the end of the tunnel. after the last policymaking

meeting of the year, powell is the most optimistic he has been since the pandemic began. at the same time he pledge the central bank will keep providing the economy with plenty of future.well into the france's president, emmanuel macron has tested positive for covid-19. he says he took a test as soon as symptoms appeared. he did not say what the symptoms were. he will self-isolate for seven days and continue to work. the u.k. and european union are heading for a final battle over rights. that is the one major issue in the way of the brexit trade deal. they are cautiously projecting an agreement within days. largelysides have settled their differences over majorther -- over another point. for thetouched 23,000 first time. analyst say the digital currency

-- bitcoin and the larger bloomberg crypto index have more than tripled this year. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloombergquint take powered by 2700 journalists in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ every year, we set out to do one thing: help the world believe in holiday magic. and this year was harder than ever. and yet, somehow, you all found a way to pull it off. it's not about the toys or the ornaments but about coming together. santa, santa, you're on mute! just wanted to say thanks. thanks for believing.

♪ leader and iatic worked into the evening alongside the speaker of the

house and the house republican leader. we made major headway towards hammering out a targeted pandemic relief package that would be able to pass both chambers. it is bipartisan majority. closern: we are getting down and washington, d.c. that was mitch mcconnell, senate majority leader. good morning, alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. jobless claims about one hour away, they have been heading in the wrong direction in america the last couple of weeks. in the bond market yields up by about a basis point. in g10, some of these going back to spring, 2018. talk andhe happy synchronize global growth. euro-dollar, 122.38. 136 handle on cable. is the equity market up another

5/10 of 1%? up around 19 points with the s&p 500. might see a record high at some point later today. tom: no question about that. we really haven't seen that big move yet. 22.05. center.rilli front and i think this is very simple, what will you look for in the next eight hours? kevin: stimulus and in terms of the bottom line what is in the stimulus? you have to try to get inside of the mind of the negotiators of this bill. fort mitch mcconnell, even if liability protections are not in this go around he understands this is not the final whack at the issue of liability protection. he feels republicans will have more leverage in the next round of economic stimulus negotiation

when president-elect joe biden is sworn in. he iss the big if, if able to maintain control of the senate in georgia. i was struck by the headlines across the terminal yesterday in which leader mcconnell reportedly told a group of republican lawmakers that he believes fiscal stimulus will help senators perdue and leffler. on thatt is the gaming senate race? you are linking it directly into two races, could they both go democratic? kevin: they could. it is an outcome that is on the table. in terms of what yesterday's reporting suggests, this is the first time senate leadership and the republican side has brought up the issue of georgia in their negotiations. i bring this up because this is a difference from the calculation that leader mcconnell has made in the run-up inthe presidential elections

november. this is a separate issue, they don't feel that way this go around. jonathan: let's talk about the message to new york, california. in about 25 minutes we will catch up -- she has been asked repeatedly, we need state aid. we are not going to get it anytime soon. going to getre not it but they will likely receive funds from vaccination distribution. the democrats are essentially haveng them they will another opportunity in february or march once president biden is sworn in. the issues across the country now becomes a localized issue. will state governments, people like the lieutenant governor, they be able to deploy the national guard?

governor hogan did earlier this week in assisting with the rollout of the vaccine. it is a state issue. it is one republicans will be carefully monitoring as well as democrats. democrats saying they need more assistance financially on that standpoint. byely they won't receive it the end of the week. lisa: mike pence has come out and said he will publicly get the vaccine, as is joe biden. president trump has said he will not get it so far. he will decide when to. is there any word on his plans for vaccination and the public campaign to get people confident in this inoculation? kevin: it is important to note the president had contracted an beat covid-19. that theyvidual does have to obviously consult with their own medical personnel in terms of whether or not they should be receiving the vaccine. have to go through their doctor,

their process. we don't know that the vice president or president elect, they have all tested negative for the virus. yesterday president-elect joe biden, who had been receiving a series of questions from reporters traveling with him said he will get the vaccine publicly next week. holidayy a significant around christmas. be incrediblyould powerful for the president elect around christmas to get the vaccine before he is sworn into office. tom: the people you talk to every day will go home, what will they hear from their constituents? kevin: frustration. patients running out. understanding that something significant has to significantly change. dependent on what parts of the country they go home to.

the suburbs are very different right now than what is happening in districts that are more representative of cities. they are in dire need of economic assistance. more rural parts of the country there is a reckoning that is about to occur in terms of the republican party and reining in spending. i would argue it will start to be had in the next round of stimulus talks. let's get through this one. tom: this might be it. orathan: after january 5 january 20, nothing is getting done for two years. kevin: in terms of economic revitalization and $1 trillion worth of stimulus, it is a big unknown. whether or not president-elect biden could package another round of stimulus, protecting

domestic and international and digital infrastructure. that remains to be seen. typically in the first 100 days you go back to roosevelt for example, the new president has an opportunity to really come out swinging. that isest conversation being had in washington amongst the more think tank communities is whether or not president-elect biden's geopolitical plans will actually in the first 100 days be more significant than the ability to pass through meaningful package with a divided government. that is still unknown. jonathan: executive power is very strong. thank you, as always. bloomberg chief washington correspondent. tom keene, we are inching a little bit closer that this is just optics, substance, we get it somewhere. tom: we are getting somewhere because of december 26. there is nothing like jobs, jobs, jobs.

that is a key date for millions of americans. i'm sorry, december 26 is like tomorrow. jonathan: we will talk about jobs one hour from now. we will preview that. good morning, this is bloomberg. when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.

jonathan: just getting comfortable thinking about tom keene walking home in the snow a little bit letter. from new york and london to our audience worldwide. here is your intraday record high on the s&p 500. futures advancing icing -- nicely. spend -- recipe futures advancing. bond market, a powerful message from the federal reserve, not in the news conference but in the statement and projections. the outlook is clear, they think it will get better, get policy will stay the same. a powerful message from a central bank, the message the fed is trying to send. if things improve, we will not

step back in. they will not define substantial progress, but maybe in the middle of the next year, it will change and maybe that is when we have a bit of a problem for this bond market. at the comet, yields well-behaved. 10-year.the u.s. foreign exchange, the dollar index, the xy, about 57% towards the euro. bloomberg dollar index weighted against the euro by about 33%, more broadly weighted. same story, dollar weaker. intraday down .6% on the xy. broad-based clear, dollar weaker and federal reserve is not stepping back in, even if that economy gets better back in 2021. 1.02 print.h a .0304 right now.

i do not think i have ever done day 21alk about a jobs days ahead of schedule. a late jobs day, january 28. tom porcelli joints with rbc capital market. frame up the key january report. how grim is it going to be? but wel a little early, are acknowledging that you can see another decline for that report. just have not seen a lot of real improvement in continuing claims. we have seen initial claims rise a bit, but the continuing part will feed most into what our call will be as it relates to the peril report. look, it is not just the december report. the reality is if states continue to shut down, then you're going to see perhaps even the january report -- the report

for january, they negative. so i think we're going to go through a rough patch. while we arear, going to go through this rough patch here, we have to recognize that 2021 is shaping up to be a pretty good year. i should say it this way, all the pieces are in place for 2021 to be a good year tom: what does q2, q3 look like? when does the service sector go back to work, based on rbc research? >> so we -- as my daughter goes through the shot -- tom: that is ok. did you give her $10 to shovel the driveway this morning? tom, you have got to go bigger, got to go $20. lisa: welcome to 2020. tom: got to go $20. they will not shovel for anything under that. >> and now i see my dog is about to walk through, as well. tom: we love it. [laughter] >> i think the question was

about, when do we get back to gaining jobs? i think the reality is, we could be gaining jobs sort of shortly into the new year. it was funny, tom, one of the things i think is being really underappreciated is think about some of the recent reports we ism, theythe nfib or were talking about labor tightness. think about that, talking about labor tightness amidst all of this. as we continue into the year and states start the process of reopening again, we think we could easily be back down toward full employment by the middle of the year. i think that is a foregone conclusion from our perspective. how much progress do we make over the balance of the year, be on the middle of the year? lisa: tom, i feel like we are part of your family. it is lovely, i have got to say. you are doing a great job with

all of the distractions in the background. i do wonder, a lot of people discount some of the data we are getting, saying it is messy, noisy, complicated because the numbers are so big and the reporting from states has been called into question. but there has been a transformation in the labor force to a more technological society. i was looking at a store that talked about amazon warehouse workers and how they are paid pretty low wages, and a great number of them have to receive food stamps. what are we going to see on the others of this pandemic in terms of the transformation and the ability for people to get middle income jobs on the others? again, the job openings report is going to be pretty instructive in this regard. we have almost 7 million job openings, and they're fairly broad-based. report, look at the ism they not necessarily talking for ultra high

level executive jobs. i mean, they're looking for people in the manufacturing space, and they're having a hard time finding workers in that capacity. so there are jobs out there, but it is going to take time for the healing process to continue. again, i think next year at this time, let's promise to have another conversation on december 17, assuming that is not a weekend, and i think the story will be very different. you are going to be below full employment by that point next year. jonathan: we will be talking about how hot the fed is running it, tom, do you think, in nine months? >> i do, jonathan. we think the conversation is going to change pretty abruptly. i have said many times, i think even to you are, that powell is not incentivized to talk positively about the economic backdrop. he is more incentivized to say

that we are cautious and ready to do it we can, etc. but i think there is going to have to be at some point a pivot over the course of 2021 where we move from this, hey, things are sort of looking really bad, to, hey, actually, things are starting to look really good and we are seeing inflationary pressures start to build. i would not be surprised of the fed moves away from the notion of we will not be able to raise rates until 2023 and beyond. we can easily make an argument that you could see a rate hike in 2022. but people have to keep in mind is -- there is a difference between hiking rates and actually having tight policies. the removal of accommodation, in the and of itself, does not mean you have tight policy. it means that you are removing accommodation. we have 5%, to say wrote in upside risk, core inflation of more than 2%, even touching 2.5% over the course of 2021, i think it will be

difficult for the fed to latch onto this notion that they are not going to do anything until 2023. to me, that is too far-fetched. even powell himself has acknowledged that they were upside risks in the medium-term. to us, he is right to say that, because we think that there are. in that context, there will be no scenario, short of things really collapsing again, that they will not be able to touch rates until 2023. i think we have to keep in mind, i think everyone is looking for the steepener in 2021. aam synthetic to the idea of bit more steepening in the immediate term, but i think as the year progresses, toward the back end of the year, i think it starts to flatten. i think the front end of the market will start just about early and the fed will be late to the party. again, the curve is going to resume general come but i see

two-year yields rising faster than 10. you could see some curve flattening as the year progresses. jonathan: the communication we have had in the last one to four the qualitative outcome-based guidance a feature or a buck, you think? >> i love this question. they want it to be a feature, but i think it is a bug. look, the reality is we do not know -- powell, one of the reporters asked him a great question yesterday, basically, how do we know when we have met your objectives? you know, is the summary of economic projections, is that a good guidepost? powell basically said no, it is not a good guidepost, because he that whatnow exec it is. i am sympathetic to that. there is a problem with this guidance. if we do not know what output we are aiming for, then how do you know when you have arrived? so i think this notion of

shifting framework, i think it will be quite messy for the fed down the road because we will not have a guidepost in place. i am sort of sympathetic to the month on -- sympathetic to them on some level. but we do not know what the right guideposts are. tom: within your enthusiasm, do you just assume service sector inflation reverts to the 3%ish mean? >> yeah, we do. one of the things that i think people seem to forget is that, from a service sector inflation perspective, it persistently and guessd 3% mean, where we have a lot of room to make up from a spitting perspective in 2021, services. goods have killed it, well north of where we were pre-covid. services is the laggard, and that is going to be the area we really makeup -- tom: ok, so if services are

take $50does that mean to your daughter to shovel the driveway? >> actually, that is why she just ran away. [laughter] lisa: holding out for $60. tom: we will want to meet this young preston porcelli. is he around, tom? he has crested this year. >> [laughs] rbc, greatthan: from to catch up. tom, thank you. there is only one thing i love about this year, because this year has been terrible for so any reasons, how natural that has now become. remember when they had the interview in hong kong several years ago and the child walked in and it was like, whoa, there a child in the room -- now, yeah, everyone is working at home lisa: who else is going to come in? bring the dog. tom: i am trying to let the vet

in the building, but they will not let him in unless against the nose jab for covid. like, no, i'm not doing it. but you're right, everybody is so relaxed about it. jonathan: i was not relaxed when we started doing this. we did this radio show and all you could hear was cups and glasses in the cafe. lisa: i remember that. coffee. that is what they all say jonathan: not loving that who decided to do it in the kitchen? who decides to do the show and the kitchen? tom: the help shows up and do the dishes, what can i say? jonathan: misses keen will love that you're calling her the help. coming up, kathy hochul. a stormy new york city. stay safe, everyone. this is bloomberg. ♪ --with the first word news congressional leaders are

haggling or final details in the almost $900 billion coronavirus stimulus package. americans would get a one-time $600 payment, there would be $300 a week in supplemental unemployment benefits and aid for small businesses. democrats will have to give up demand for aid to state and local governments. republicans will drop the coffer lawsuit liability protection. in germany, record increase coronavirus infections. i 30's reported more than 45,000 new cases today, over twice the number from the day before. earlier this week, fatalities also set a daily record. the german chancellor has hinted that the shutdown that just take effect will remain in force beyond january the first major winter storm of the season is that during the northeastern u.s. and up drain, ice, and up to a fed of snow from virginia to here in new york and is moving out to new england. at least three people were killed in car crashes, the storm but more stress on hospitals struggling with the coronavirus.

and the playstation 5 console has been marred by scalpers buying up supplies at retailers and selling them at higher prices. most sales have been pushed online, allowing scalpers to use sophisticated bots to track them down. this is bloomberg. ♪

really involved in

people's lives. the decision whether to provide or fiscal support is entirely in the hands of congress. they are in the middle of these discussions, and those are issues for them to decide. i would say that the picture is mixed. jonathan: fed chair jay powell, we do not talk about fiscal policy, but -- how many times have you heard that over the last 12 months? we do not talk about fiscal policy, do not tell them what to do, but -- good morning. i am jonathan ferro. here is the price action this thursday morning. advance on the s&p 500. we might see an all-time high around the opening bell on the s&p, up .5%. the fx market, euro-dollar with a 1.22 handle again, new highs for 2020, up .3%. the dollar weaker broadly and very much so. cable out to a 136 handle briefly, right now at 135.99. this will be the extent of our

brexit coverage today, michel barnier says a brexit agreement is possible by friday, tom keene. this coming from the afp. possible, possible by friday. is that enough for you? enough for me tom: you killed it there, jon. complete coverage appeared we're going to migrate to this pandemic and what to do, which can be personified by a given restaurant in new york come in points inn l.a. and between. the lieutenant governor of the empire state is kathy hochul, and she joins us this morning on any number of topics. kathy, there is snow in new york. it is not going to work outdoors today, not going to work indoors either. business,does small how badly do local and state need this fiscal stimulus? >> we definitely need it. i have been saying this for months governor cuomo has been saying this for months. governor cuomo leads the

national governors association, a bipartisan group. every one of them, republicans and democrats, avenue been clamoring for help from commerce -- from congress to give to state and local government and businesses.small i was in the city yesterday, day before, and i sat down with restaurant owners, and they are literally starving. we have to help them. the federal government could right now help with a stimulus plan. it does not help the state and local governments, which is pathetic. we are in trouble, but at least get some money to the small businesses. tom: right now, the reporting is state and local aid will not be in this bill. i guess it is going to get done. you know the timeline, as well. what is your and governor cuomo's timeline to her things will apart if you do not get aid in the stimulus? >> right now our expectations are that it is not going to be in there, what we are being told .

going to do is be able to allocate $1.5 billion of state money to the essential services that otherwise would not be funded. you cannot have a plan to have a mass this tradition of vaccinations throughout the state and at the same time cut health-care workers from hospitals and clinics. it does not work. so we are planning on a joe biden presidency. we expect we will be able to get more help from the federal government. i tell you, it all comes down to georgia. amazing that the destiny of new york state will come down to who wins the election in the senate races in the runoff in georgia in early january. if we could have a majority of democrats, they have lives this and have empathy for people, they will be able to get the job done. short of that, we will have to deal with this in our budget in march, and we will have to make serious cuts. but right now, we're not going

to lay off teachers, not going to lay off health care workers, not going to lay off police officers right now just because washington is failing. we're going to get it done in state.k we will be in financial trouble, but we will have to deal with it in our budget in march. lisa: talk about what it means, major cuts, but it could also mean raising taxes. >> that is absolutely on the table, last thing we wanted to do in new york state, to raise taxes, particularly in these troubled times. we understand that that is not a c, but we may, or get to that point if we do not get that essential assistance from the federal government to help offset the $15 billion that we are facing. we're going to need to do something. we do not want to have to do it at the federal government can alleviate that. this is not because of how new york manages its finances, this is because of a global pandemic.

this is not anything we have any control over appeared we're doing the very best we can. and we will get this vaccine up. i am telling you, new york state will be the very first state to be covid free because we're going to be very aggressive about this, and that should be good news to businesses in new york. states across this country will not be where we are in a few months. we're going to be very aggressive. it requires us to have money for health care workers to get that vaccine in people's arms. lisa: you said new york state will be among the first rolling of the vaccine. what is the timetable for the rollout as you see it now? >> it is going on right now. we are in phase one, which is nursing home residents, staff, high-risk hospital workers. those are literally being administered in hospitals all over the state. we are proud that new york state at the very first individual, one of our front line workers in queens, be the first in the

nation. we are excited about that. we are also planning for phase two, which will be essential workers and priority general public, meaning this with comorbidity, underlying health conditions, focusing on them. we do not think that is going to come and till later january. but i will tell you, if we can get more supplies, this would be a wonderful gift, to get more supplies when moderna gets approved at pfizer is able to come up with more. we will have no problem getting this out to new yorkers. we have a very aggressive plan we have been working on since last july to get this into communities all over the state and rural areas and communities of color that have been hardest hit and will have to overcome reluctance, and that is part of our public relations campaign going on. jonathan: lieutenant governor, about 60 seconds left. where are we in terms of considering another locked down? we have heard a lot about that he read what is your take? >> we do not have to do that. there is a plan.

if people right now change their behavior, those who have been ignoring the mask mandates and ignoring our requests that they stay socially distanced, that they change their behavior, literally we could get through these holidays and start seeing a decline. new york state is about 6% infection rate, still the fourth lowest in the nation, so i give a lot of credit to new yorkers for adhering to this, but it is trending upward and we're worried about hospitalization capacity, now at about 25% available. if that gets more full, then we have to talk about shut down. that is where we hope not to end up, and we're not going to talk about that right now because we do not know what the behavior of people will be over the holidays. we cannot control that. individuals can control that. shut downs is the last thing we want to do in the state of new york. jonathan: new york lieutenant governor, kathy hochul. thank you very much. tom keene, that is the situation, and he comes on to something we have been healthing continuously,

care capacity. that is what it will come down to for these policymakers are tom: totally agree. new mexico, 102 percent of beds in new mexico icu right now jonathan: from new york and london, good morning to you worldwide. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> there is an argument to be made we have got up too far, too fast. >> more money can be put to work, i do not think it can continue at the pace it has. >> is quite possible you will see numbers start to disappoint. >> a lot of the stimulus has already been priced in. >> the way people have been spending and the timing of this band has shifted. >> companies who've made it through 2020, when you get to 2021 some may decide it is too difficult to keep going. >>