>> there is an argument to be made we have got up too far, too fast. >> more money can be put to work, i do not think it can continue at the pace it has. >> is quite possible you will see numbers start to disappoint. >> a lot of the stimulus has already been priced in. >> the way people have been spending and the timing of this band has shifted. >> companies who've made it through 2020, when you get to 2021 some may decide it is too difficult to keep going. >> this is bloomberg

surveillance with jonathan ferro, tom keene, and lisa abramowicz. abramowicz,ro, lisa and tom keene on radio, on television. good morning to all of you driving on radio in a snowstorm on the east coast to a very snowy boston. drive careful. on television, we also say drive careful because it always be a threat on tv, you get your tv going, you're watching liverpool while you're driving home from the fed press conference. i want to get right to the markets. i want to start with the great voices we heard at the top of the show. hma of morgan stanley coming up. the divide on the big call for next year, it is enormous. jonathan: on different time horizons. morgan stanley cautious near-term, much more constructive long-term. what is interesting about the moment we are in is the near-term versus longform or

medium-term for the federal reserve. things improve, they will not step back in. that is a powerful message in the forecast. bob michele of jp morgan quoted mike tyson on my program yesterday and said at some point the fed will get smacked in the face by the data. can they pushhard back and say it is transitory? the pressure starts to build in the same way tom porcelli talked about. tom: in 1994 where the bank of japan, 2002, 2003. lisa abramowicz, i will still with anybody to come up with a good phrase. i think i actually came up with the pandemic partition. we are listening to the optimist , jon ferro is talking about a turnaround in 2021, and then there is the politics of the moment, the massive pandemic partition we are living. lisa: a question of what congress will do.

we are expecting the $900 billion bill, at least the tex t, possibly as soon as today. what happens if yields rise, if inflation rises, how does the fed respond? one thing jay powell said that was so telling, he said it looks ok if you look at the fed model. if you look at how low benchmark rates are. this equilibrium right now is so uncomfortable because of this, all is based on each other. as long as yields stay low, maybe these valuations to make sense. what happens if things change? michael: -- tom: on the data check, the vix comes in nicely. equities elevated come s&p futures up 18, the dow level 30,183. i will call that 180 points below the record high. the litmus paper of the global system is the currency market.

which pair interests you. jonathan: euro-dollar. when does that become a problem? 1.22. i think we are there. what can they do about it? i do not think they can do a lot about it. i think you are about to hear a lot more about dollar week spirit some people might welcome it. i do not think europe will be one of those people. dollar canada -- tom: dollar canada, a six standard deviation move. stronger canadian dollar. michael kuchma joins us from morgan stanley with a few decades of experience. income.lobal fixed we are thrilled he could join us. columbia talks about dynamism. we have a dynamic market. things are moving. everyone is adapting. what are you watching most closely into next year? michael: we have been most

focused on policy responses for the pandemic, both in terms of the course of the summer, as we moved in the fall, in terms of bs and flows of the pandemic getting better and worse, are they saying we need the boom in the economy in 2021 and 2022 to recover the lost output and lost jobs we had in 2020. will they stick to the script wearableive in circumstances not change the field if they are forced to change. fiscal policy looks back on track. monetary policy, i was happy with what jay powell said yesterday about staying the course about keeping substantial gdp until the objectives are met. jonathan: easy to say now. harder next year. how easy is it to say that even if things improve if inflation starts to tick higher we will not do anything.

michael: it will be a strong test. they have not change the way they think about monetary policy. they said yesterday there were focused on outcome based changes , basically saying we will not change until we make progress to lower unemployment and higher inflation. based upon trends in forecast and growth, unemployment will not get down to maximum employment until 2023. will they stick to their guns as the economy does get stronger summer? the proof will be then. we will not know until then. lisa: there is a question in jonathan's question of how much is a traitor investor can you rely on policy makers to have the markets back, whether it is the federal reserve or policy makers in washington, d.c. to come through with a physical plant that is baked into the market. -- a fiscal plan baked into the

market. how much faith you give them in coming to the markets rescue? michael: i do not know who said trust but verify. you have to take them at their word, but let's keep a close eye at what they say, how the economy is evolving. is evolving according to the way they think it will evolve, is there a surge in inflation? talked about the transitory nature of inflation for the past 10 years. there's been no sense any rise in inflation can be sustained. is that true? we will have to see? tom: jon ferro and his entourage are going into preprint for tomorrow's "the real yield." this is a huge deal. 20 to 30 people involved in london for the planning of his show. the only thing that matters is the real yield we saw in the late summer of last year, down to -1.10%.

we are getting there quickly. are we going to see a new low in the inflation-adjusted yield to an ever greater negative number? michael: that is a very good question. i think the real yield short-term and long-term is the best measure we have about monetary policy or financial conditions. the rise in yields and the back end of the yield curve reflect the rise in inflation expectations we are seeing. the real yield has not gone up, which is another reason the fed -- not adjusting quantitative easing, maturity, etc.. it will depend on the course of the data. the fed is looking through the weakness we are seeing in the sense there was a chance they may increase accommodation in some form yesterday because of the near term weakness in employment we see. the slowdown received because of increased social distancing, it

looks like they are looking through that. , they willlds rise have to say something about it, maybe do something if the rise is premature. jonathan: what is the market call going into 2021? short-term interest rates stay unchanged. long-term interest rates drift higher. higher treasuries drift over the course of the first half of the year, but not romantically so. we see a slow grind -- not dramatically so. i think dollar weakness is here to stay. jonathan: michael kushma, thank you. morgan stanley investment management cio of global fixed income. the treasury market well behaved in the last one he four hours. i do not think yields were up a single basis point yesterday -- the last 24 hours. tom: it is an important

observation. notice the curve steepening off the press conference. i will go back to the real yield, i do not mean your property, i mean the actual real yield. it does not have the accelerated tenancy we saw in july, but have you seen the vengeance of that thing? under 1%. michael: it is important -- jonathan: it is impressive what has happened over the last year. how many people have told us that is the epicenter of their bullish call? lisa: this is the interesting conundrum. it is interesting you keep honing in on next year. what happens if growth is higher-than-expected? what happens if inflation is higher-than-expected. it is interesting, what yields reacted to was assigned congress would give direct payment to individuals. this idea of inflation. that has not been tested. tom: it she turning optimism into gloom? [laughter] jonathan: i think she did. we all get a check.

but wait for it. this is what might happen. if that does happen, i think the federal reserve chair has the ability to make the argument this is transitory. the argument you would have to make for that to be durable is they will get a check every single month and those checks will keep coming at the money will keep coming, demand will keep building. they think that what you will have his vaccination start, the economy reopens, people flock back to services, you get service sector inflation. is joehe only caveat biden has talked about infrastructure spending, about actual stimulus and not just plugging the gap. that does not seem to be accounted for in markets. jonathan: lisa abramowicz. lisa: i'm just saying. jonathan: i love it. i enjoyed. i very happy you do it. it is important. lisa: thanks. jonathan: positive points. negative. much more to come.

greg valliere. we can hardly wait. what will lisa say next? tom: a winter wonderland. jonathan: there you go. what happens? a beautiful scene. tell us about it. lisa: sunny, beautiful. jonathan: there we go. this is bloomberg. with the first word news, i'm karina mitchell. congressional leaders close to an agreement on almost $900 billion coronavirus aid package. the plan includes a one-time $600 payment for individuals plus there will be $300 per week in supplemental unemployment insurance. what is not included, aid to state and local governments and lawsuit liability protection. jay powell sees light at the end of the tunnel after the policy meeting. how sound of the most -- jay

powell son of the most optimistic he is been since the virus began. at the same time he pledged the central bank will keep providing the economy would support into the future. france's president emmanuel macron has tested positive for the coronavirus. the presidential palace as he took a test as soon as symptoms appeared but did not say what symptoms he had. emmanuel macron will self-isolate and will continue to work. foru.k. and eu are heading a final battle over fishing rights. that is the one major issue standing in the way of a post-brexit trade deal. officials are predicting an agreement within days. the focus on fish as assigned the sides have largely settled their differences over a level playing field for business. ghanan has rally 20% and for 23,000 for the first time. analysts say the digital currency still has further to go. bitcoin and the crypto index

have both more than tripled. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels.

get gym results at home in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now.

president-elect biden: he will

help build things back better. we have selected pete for transportation at the intersection of some of our most ambitious plans. jonathan: president-elect joe biden putting his team together. from new york and london, good morning. i am jonathan ferro. here's the price action going into jobless claims. equities up 20 points on the s&p. up .5% with all-time highs inside. in the bond market, well behaved in the treasury market. yields 0.9196%. cross asset, the dollar weaker. back to 2018 for some of these levels, spring 2018 to see the euro where it is now. euro-dollar 1 markets isng sprightly to say the least. , onhe data, on the math understanding the fabric of this

nation, greg valliere is immensely qualified with hef investments. -- with agf investments. we speak to him about washington. indianapolis,to the first 13 cities are all democrat and if jacksonville slips in, fort worth slips in come in el paso slips in with republican mayors. the republican mayors need state and local aid? greg: the need is a cute. it is a desperate need for aid. in a lot of states run by republicans, let's take ohio, there is also a need. this is one of the great flaws of this bill that will probably pass in the next few days. tom: what happens after this bill? let's go out two at three months? is there a second stimulus behind this? greg: i think there has to be. the georgia election will affect

a lot. if republicans win both seeds it makes it less likely. even in that scenario mitch mcconnell needs protection on liability for his business friends. the democrats need state and local aid. i the end of the winter we will be running out of unemployment benefits. i think there is another bill coming, maybe as late february or early march. jonathan: i want to work out who has the leverage on those issues. do you think the republicans hate state aid more than the democrats hate liability protection? greg: yes i do. the republicans have a narrative that i think is not true that the states are profligate and spent money recklessly. there is an imminent move to lay people off. there will be huge layoff and city governments because the cities have run out of money. jonathan: it seems to me this comes down to january 5. january 5 goes democrats were does not come otherwise state aid is not happening. greg: the polls show this is a

virtual tie in both of the races. god forbid, there could be recounts in georgia and this nightmare will go on and on. if there is a clear verdict in georgia and let's say mitch mcconnell is still the senate majority leader, whatever a bill we get will be modest. on the other hand if the democrats get both seeds, we will get a big bill from joe biden, well over $1 trillion. lisa: there were a number of reports about senator mitch mcconnell talking in private discussions with other gop senators and saying passing this bill will help the republicans win the georgia runoff election. is that your sense that this would give a boost to republican chances? greg: yes it is. there are a lot of people in georgia who need aid. the longer we wait, the longer this looks like typical congressional dysfunction, the longer it helps the democrats. lisa: when you talk about if the

democrats to take the senate and gain the majority in joe biden is able to pass a $1 trillion plan, what are you looking at in terms of what will be in that bill and how easily it will pass , given where we are with the moderates? people,re checks to more direct aid. this bill we get over the weekend, plus the second bill, the bottom line is a recession becomes much less likely if we get these bills. tom: 1975, you and i remember the daily news headline. ford to new york city, dropdead. trump to new york city, dropdead. that is what we have now. when we start seeing city layoffs of sized, whether new york, indianapolis, phoenix. how will washington respond? greg: there will be something done, but everything is

politicized now. a lot of these cities are not bad people, they have had a drop in revenue with all of the restaurants closed and they have had a big increase in spending on first responders. it is not that they are evil or profligate, they are in desperate shape. that will become more widely appreciated over the next couple of months. this warrants a full conversation. forgive me for reducing this to one question. what is happening with the hacking of the u.s. government? is russia responsible and what are you learning at the moment? greg: is a serious story. the former director of security had a lengthy column today. i forget if it was the new york times or the washington post, a lengthy column on the damage that has been done, not just u.s. government agencies but u.s. companies. it is brazen and will have to be stopped. it starts joe biden's administration off on a frosty

tone with moscow. jonathan: it just got colder. greg valliere, thank you. investments g policy strategist. semi things on the radar that something like that is not getting enough conversation. tom: it is not getting enough conversation and it falls into the international financial community. i learned that from john taylor, the great stanford professor. things right that these and upholding in. the gentleman who wrote the op-ed, i do not have it in front of me. we've interviewed him a number of times when he served president trump. one time was at dabo's. -- was at davos. you are dead on to bring up the question. it does matter. jonathan: this is where joe biden has the most power. if we have a divided government, this is where he can put his mark on things come on foreign policy. tom: no question he can do that.

clearly he has been allied centric. i do want to point out one thing cuomo ofng is governor new york as attorney general. maybe that is a discussion for next week. jonathan: i've heard the same thing, although there are other names in the mix as well. for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro counting you down to the opening bell about an hour away. in five minutes we will have initial jobless claims. in the last couple of weeks we've had the wrong kind of upside surprise on claims. real concern about the economy rolling over as we work our way deeper into winter just as the vaccinations begin. can we build a bridge to the other side? the hope is we get a deal in washington, d.c. here is the price action. futures up negative on the s&p. 500,vanced .55% on the s&p

approaching all-time highs, potentially at the opening bell. tom: is out there. jonathan: i think you might have missed your chance of couple of times over the last few days. -- over the last few decades. i (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. get gym results at home. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands

to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. (upbeat music)

>> we are going to build back better with the vision and execution. we selected pete for transportation, at the intersection of some of our most ambitious plans. jonathan: president-elect joe biden putting his plan together for the labor market, data coming out shortly. from new york and london, good morning. good morning, michael mckee. mike: maybe not a good morning if you're looking for good news. we are at 885,000 jobless claims. that's up. we are waiting for the revision now. the forecast was for 818,000. we are seeing the signs of an economy that is slowing down and people are losing their jobs once again. you cannot trust the actual

numbers, of course, the government accounting office suggesting the numbers can be off, but the trend is not good. this is a time of year when it is hard to seasonally adjust because of the holidays. but you cannot look at this and it say it is good news. housing starts at one mile male 540 7000,ne up by 17,000 from the prior month. a 1.2% increase. up from permits are 1,000,545. so the housing market continues to be strong. and with rates where they are. the really bad news of the day was something i was not even anticipating, the philadelphia fed index at 11.1. it was 26.3 last month. the forecast had been for a drop to 20, but it dropped more than that. and the employment number is the one that really caught my eye.

let me call that up. it dropped so far down, the philadelphia fed employment versus 27.2.8.5 tom: you are an expert at this. talkw that jon wants to about the labor economy, so bring those together, the claims number. we have seen five weeks, the wrong trend and of the philadelphia number, how do you bring the two together? mike: we want to look at nonfarm payrolls. last week was the survey week for payrolls. the idea that jobless claims rose significantly. and the philadelphia fed number comes in so low, we will watch the rest of the regional indicators, but it tells you that the labor market is struggling right now. lisa: i am trying to bring all the numbers together. we cannot rely completely on them, they are messy, but the

initial jobless claims came in much higher than expected, continuing claims and that the people receiving aid from the state and federal governments actually went down. is there anything that came in below expectations? can we draw anything from that? mike: you can't because two things are happening. one, the continuing claims number is a week behind the other numbers. we are also seeing the number of people getting on extended benefits rise significantly. so we are seeing people move from continuing claims, continuing 26 weeks, then you go into the long-term and you can see that rise by 79,000 in the past week. so, even though that is delayed, it does show you that people are still out there and not finding jobs. that will be the hard part for the economic recovery. we have had faster growth, the unemployment rate has fallen because people have stopped looking for work, but you still

have people that were employed in february, who are not employed now. it will take time to get them back in the labor force. tom: michael, thank you. i cannot say enough about you and rich miller at the press conference yesterday, piercing questions. jon, is there the same doubt in the united kingdom on the labor statistics? jonathan: there is more because so many people have been on furlough and they have been supported through much of this year. the unemployment rate is not really the unemployment rate. a similar store across europe as well. in the u.s. committee cannot get a clear read on things. inre has been so much churn the u.s. labor market over the last nine months, that has been difficult to take claims and put them in your payrolls call for that month. i think that is the problem people are having for this month as well. we are looking for a negative print for december, for payrolls in the united states.

there's supportive data for that. but claims are moving in the right direction. i wonder what people are thinking about that. tom: we will have to see. this was called plug and chug, you had a formula, you threw in the data to come up with an answer. stephen stanley, can you do that now with the american economy? can you take the data and actually come up with an outlook? stephen: not if you are using your pre-pandemic formulas. there is no doubt the data has changed. with the claims numbers, the issue is that changes in the program, the extra benefits offered earlier in the year, all led to unusual activity. people filing who were not eligible before. some people who should not have gone benefits. the levels of the claims numbers are definitely off. point, the to mike's

fact is rising is consistent with what we are seeing, the pandemic, as it intensifies, you are seeing retrenchment and those high contact industries. jonathan: things moving in the wrong direction. it's still early, but if you had to put in a call for the payrolls report for this month, what would it be right now? stephen: i would say probably still positive, but certainly weaker than in november. i think that the areas that are most sensitive to the pandemic, the restaurants and service categories, are probably going to be down in december. but there is a good amount that is going on good in the economy, like housing, manufacturing and other categories. so we will see how it plays out. i think that the markets have concluded that whatever happens in november and december, things will turn up next year. i think in some ways it is less important now what happens in the near term because of the prospect of the vaccines.

jonathan: the experience of this year that we can turn the economy off, then on again, and it will snap back. this is know what happened in the financial crisis 10 years ago. it is what happened in china may be. if we can get a vaccination program ramped up, then maybe we can achieve what they did in china. do you share that view? stephen: i thought that from the beginning, that the recovery would be faster and more vigorous and than most people thought. that was true in the spring and summer. now, which a setback is understandable given the evolution of the pandemic. but i do see the economy getting back to something close to normal in the second half of next year. lisa: one thing we were talking about was the turn in the labor market. initially, people laid off were the lower wage workers. is that changing? are we see more higher paid wage

employees getting laid off and then trying to find something perhaps with a lower income? stephen: i think that the -- at the margin is still going to be the low paid, the high contact industries like restaurants, they have been the poster child for that dynamic. those will be lower wage jobs. but i think that the white collar phenomenon you discussed will be slower moving. it's in the background, but it will be overwhelmed most months until the pandemic is done because the greater churn is occurring in service industries. lisa: given uncertainty, with respect to the numbers, when do they matter or change the trajectory of the recovery to you? stephen: i think when we kind of turned the corner on the pandemic, really. it sounds like from the public health officials that we are talking about probably the spring when most people will have access to a vaccine.

i think at that point, that's when we will really have a sense of how much of what we have seen is going to be structural as opposed to strictly short-term. and i think that is the real question for the market, from the market perspective. you get all the way to where we were in february of 2020, or do we only go partly back with an unemployment rate at 6% or 5%? that is the question that the markets are most focused on as we go into next year. tom: you have a great clarity, stephen stanley, about what they do, not what they say. what are corporations in america doing right now? not the lipservice, not the ceo blather, but what are they doing in terms of investment and in terms of strategy, given this economy? stephen: certainly the durable goods numbers that we have

gotten so far this year have been consistently better than expected. so investment, especially in equipment, has been, i think him encouraging. it suggests businesses are willing to look past things. they have a longer time horizon than most households, so that makes sense. as the hope that we can get back to something close to normal gets closer and closer, i think businesses will get back toward a business as usual approach. to your point, that is mostly for big businesses. if you are a small business and you are in a sector that is being restrained by social distancing, then it becomes a day-to-day, may be week to week endeavor just to stay alive. so, we are hoping to see something from congress this week. but there are many businesses, i think, that are just hoping to make it to the next month and into next year. jonathan: small businesses

certainly asking for it much more loudly. stanley, chief economist at amherst pierpoint. yields down a basis point in the session. 91 on a 10 year. this is a theme. this is something we have expected through december. you saw it in november. you saw it in claims the last couple weeks. the wrong kind of upside surprise on jobless claims. tom: for those on the radio, it has been evident. you look at the u.s. 10 year right now, i am sorry, this is more than just a lower yield. this is a real drop down. and the dynamics -- the real yield, to go to your interesting program tomorrow, - 1.0459. look how that has moved. jonathan: inflation expectations creeping higher, no models have

been steady. they capture the story perfectly. looking at nominal yields, there is a lid on this right now and the fed talked a little bit about maybe moving in the future, but this data is enough. 91 basis points, the 10 year. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is first word news. leaders are haggling over the details of the coronavirus stimulus package. americans would get a one time paymentf $600 and democrats would have to give up their demand for aid for state and local governments as republicans drop their call for liability protection. in germany, a record increase in coronavirus infections. they reported more than 45,000

new cases today. at that is over twice the number from the day before. earlier this week left fatalities that a daily record. angela merkel has hinted a hard shutdown that just took effect it will remain beyond january. and the first major winter storm of the season is battering the northeastern u.s. with rain, ice and up to a foot of snow from virginia to new york. at least three people have been and then car crashes, storm has put more stress on hospital struggling with the coronavirus. facebook and twitter have now reversed changes meant to curb election misinformation. they say they temporary changes are no longer needed. twitter made it harder to retweet other posts. after the electric my facebook had boosted news sources it considered authoritative. bloomberg has learned goldman sachs plans on boosting bonuses up to 20%. in firm saw a 49% jump

revenue after a sluggish decade involving traders. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> you can buy more bonds, longer majority bonds. that would put more dollar

pressure on interest rates. >> that is not the problem facing the economy. global interest rates are not holding the economy back. the housing sector is doing well. so if the fed did more, it would not have that much consequence. jonathan: housing sector is flying. the labor market, not so much. that was bill dudley. to our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. coming up on the open, bank of america securities had a timely conversation with bloomberg in the next hour. you and i have one show left together after this one. tom: they got me medicated. you should stay around, because if you ever come back to new york you will want the first six months free, right? jonathan: i will be watching the first six months free. they are offering a 14 month contract with two months for then you brokers, and

get that lower rent for 14 months, snap back to normal may be in the spring. tom: have somebody in your entourage take notes here. we have mitchell roschelle. founding partner on macro trends advisors. mitch, i have commercial questions, residential questions, but let's pick it up with young jonathan ferro here, how desperate are they to rent units in these big pandemic cities? mitchell: i would not say it is desperation right now because i think demand is starting to leach back into the market. at lease they are making progress. months ago, i think they felt like they were in freefall, lowering rents and giving free rents simultaneously. now they are figuring out the right balance. you mentioned the 14 month lease. that is a trick they are using. i do not think it is panic mode,

but they want to do whatever they can to get the buildings filled. tom: is construction dead? mitchell: yeah. if you see a crane in this guideline, they will likely finish what they started, baidu not see new -- but i do not see new construction for quite a while. lisa: any way to get a true read on the big urban areas in terms of real estate values until the pandemic subsides? mitchell: lisa, i think that the spring buying season, when people are out and about, will be the first leading indicator of whether condos are trading for. there is tremendous overhang on the market for people who have listed condos for sale, then taken them off the market. that isxtra supply messing up the prices. if to have a two-bedroom, you rent it because you cannot sell it, so now you are competing with the landlords. we have to wait until spring to

see prices we can rely on. lisa: before we get those tea leaves, do you have a sense how much credence of the exodus from big cities really is in terms of having lasting power? mitchell: i think it is other than temporary, but it is not permanent. i did not mean to overly nuance that. i think there was a pre-existing trend of people wanting to move out of the cities that got accelerated, but if people cannot find homes to purchase in the suburbs, they are staying. people are moving out of those places that were cheaper into manhattan, because it has been repriced. tom: i asked you a question before, you gave me a really smart answer, but it still confounds me and our viewers. all those stores are empty, why not lower the rents? mitchell: that is the question. hopefully, i can hearken back to

my smart answer from the past, but i think it is happening now. they are getting there. the problem is they are remaining empty because there is no one to take them. for some time, they were being greedy, the landlords, trying to keep the rent level that they wanted. right now, i think there is a tenant for some of those spaces. you see some pop-up stores for the holidays, but now when you enter this new phase of no indoor dinings, we have taken restaurants out of the mix, and i think there is just not enough tenants for the spaces. i do not know what will become of it. tom: what do you say to the politicians who are struggling with this? what is the urgency mitch has to get enthusiasm in commercial and retail america? mitchell: i think that we need to create incentives for people to start businesses. the thing that will likely

happen is all these businesses that go out of business, tragically, somebody new will take over the restaurant that has closed. we need to create incentives in cities for people to want to put capital at risk and open businesses, even retail ones. new york city is a foot traffic city, so that storefront retail makes sense. i think politicians need to incentivize people to take risks. lisa: there is also the question about offices, do you think that the opposite is more dead or less dead? mitchell: less dead than people think. i would love nothing more than to be in the studio with you guys, and then load up my briefcase with cheese it's as i am leaving. that's a sixth floor inside joke. but i think people are wanting to get back together again. i think they demand to get back to the office from employees is there, employers are holding them back. as soon as it is safe, you

should see employees back in the office. heez-itsz it's is -- c is the reason i joined bloomberg. mitch is hugely popular -- lisa: cheez-its? tom: they are gluten-free. give me a break. lisa: you're always talking about the gluten-free. tom: i tried to keep it under three bags a day. robinhood, what is robinhood? lisa: it is the free trading platform catering to retail traders. that a lot of people talk about. they have been accused by the sec and others for basically encouraging non-educated traders of getting into markets and making risky bets. right now, crossing the bloomberg, robinhood is going to pay $65 million to end this probe over the order payments. it's interesting to see their scrutiny they have come under as

they have become popular. tom: i would have spent $65 million this morning. 2:00 a.m., going down park avenue -- lisa: in the bentley? tom: not in the snow. i was in the snow shoes. wax.ded glide i left it at home. i would kill for some of that. lisa: do you have an entire shelf of wax at home? you have the bowtie wax, what else? tom: that has wax all the way around the nose. lisa: wax around 2020. tom: this is a serious issue. i had to be picked up in a hummer to get me to work. but it was tough. lisa: i am still thinking about cheez its. i'm not sure i have seen you eating them recently. tom: me and the mayor of new york, we love them.

dow futures are up 85. an important conversation. john taylor of stanford university, leader. stay with us on bloomberg -- later. stay with us on bloomberg radio. and on bloomberg television. drive careful, those on the east coast. ♪

[bellringing] jonathan: from new york and london, good morning. this is the countdown to the open. 30 minutes away from the opening bell. futures are up on the s&p 500. we begin with a big issue. closing in on a deal in washington, d.c. >> we made headway. >> it is not a done deal yet. >> we will not leave town until we have made law. >> as we race the clock to reach a final negotiation. >> hammering out a targeted package. >> we are close to an agreement. >> targeted relief is now months overdue. >> everyone wants to get this done. >> we have met contender in these discussions. >> the finish line is in sight. jonathan: more aid on the horizon, more bond issuance, and a chairman committed to keep on buying. >> we are committed to using our full range of tools to