>> there's an argument to be made it's gone too far too fast. >> there will be a day of reckoning. permanent layoffs increase. >> you will see numbers start to disappoint. whyhat's another reason it's going to be difficult to latch onto this notion. spend hasing of the shifted. >> i see the economy getting back to normal in the second half of next year. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. tom: a simulcast on bloomberg radio, bloomberg television. we want you across the nation and around the world to start back. jonathan ferro is off. how will we survive question --?

. we will have to do more data checks and talk about the real yield. lisa: we will be waiting for someone to rain on the fed. it's been an extraordinary 24 hours. we will give you more data checks through the morning. and the concept of united kingdom that is shutting down, we've been doing this all morning. thank you to paul. lisa, your thoughts on the medical interviews we heard this morning. lisa: there is an uncertainty here. there is a belief that the vaccine will also prevent against getting this new strain of the virus, which is more contagious but not different. there is uncertainty about how weekly it spreads. we don't have the sequencing. i'm not an expert. i don't want to speak out of turn. added to thishas

unease that markets have gotten past themselves, gone too far too fast. this morning, they are taking stock of the now. lisa: the jump conditions of two we have come at it a little bit. we will frame the data for you through all of bloomberg surveillance this morning. are -64. they were -100 earlier. dow futures are -48. lisa,'s give us the observation you see wrapped around washington and what we see in britain as well. expecting the congress to vote on that support plan. that's why this is a news day. people were expecting this to be passed. people shrugged.

will we get into how good or tepid this is in terms of bolstering the economy as the pandemic continues to rage. a 20 yearting treasury. it's a great day for the cell back. go down and prices up. they will get more money for their buck. thebiden is expected to get covid vaccine. the crucial aspect is the public relations one. trying to convince people it is safe to get the vaccine. they can get inoculated to prevent the spread of the disease. that's been the concern of a lot of people, there could be getting theut protection that will end the pandemic. tom: i'm not a big fan of case analysis. the analysis in the united kingdom is extremely difficult.

hospitalizations are front and center. hospitalizations are less of a problem in the united kingdom. i want to take you back two hours ago. me was to see ireland shutting down plane flights to the united kingdom, the netherlands. lisa, the euro start, which has been heavily truncated is shutting down. it's a shut down united kingdom. about theee headlines possibility of food insecurity, supply chains getting disrupted. i don't want to sensationalize that. we do not hear of food shortages. we do not hear about disruptions that are massive at this point. it raises this concerned that we are not out of the woods yet. and the mayor of

london said today to extend briggs it, move the talks out. of the year a few years ago. it's a book that is aged well. the age of oversupply. daniel, it's been an extraordinary year. everyone wants to forget. 2021, where iso the output gap? where are the dynamics of oversupply? recentlyhat we've seen is a resurgence in the imports from china and other countries. what we haven't seen is manufacturing, production in general. when i look at the import export

data, it's fascinating to me how much we are reliant on oversupply and at the worst possible time when the labor force. tom: many of us have projects for 2020 that we have not accomplished. together a terrific analysis of the labor dynamics of the nation. how bad is it? daniel: we have 12 million ,eople who are not employed prior to the pandemic they were. that masks the labor force. it is exhibited every week. these unemployment claims are no longer original layoffs. if you aggregate the entire amount of unemployment claims to date, you are at 40% of the labor force.

what you are seeing is the ability of workers to hold onto jobs. the classic example is what happened in the restaurant industry over the summer. warm weather and what have you allowed people to reemerge and open their restaurants. now you see the same thing play out. seeughout the economy, you repeat layoffs and repeat unemployment, any of the same people who filed in the spring are forced to refile again. does this stimulus effort in washington go to bridge the gap for all of these individuals you are talking about? daniel: it goes to the first quarter. it is a norm asleep necessary. forweekly benefit

unemployment is urgently needed. these people are going to lose all of their benefits. the extension of the benefits and the supplement, my big concern right now is the reestablishment of the ppp program. it's interesting. the program was an alternative way to get payroll back to getting called back to work. they were given the opportunity to receive funds. much thatm isn't so the unemployment system isn't working. the supplement is going to help. level ofp high savings. the problem right now is how the businesses are going to survive. i'm interested to see the language of the bill, specifically the use of the new ppp proceeds.

about $230 billion. our business is going to be able to use these proceeds to supplement people back on payroll. going toher they are be able to use it for other payables they have accrued. lisa: you talked about in addition to the companies the high savings rate among individuals. payments be effective given the fact that they will target people who are most vulnerable. with that money be more efficient elsewhere? to see an are going increase in the savings rate in the first quarter. checks for the00 middle class and the working class. those may get expended. they may not.

huge increase in retention of funds. surge, you have to ask yourself whether or not this is going to see an increase in consumption as opposed to savings. if people are worrying at home and not getting back until the second or third quarter, you are going to see some of the same phenomena you saw in march through june. tom: congratulations with your work on cornell law. i can't say enough about what of become a timeless book oversupply. lisa, i'm looking at a recovery as we reset off the shutdown down of the united kingdom. it is a shut down of a nation. lisa: it comes in the face of

some very real news, this idea of a new strain of the virus. the move you were talking about, the retracing of the decline in equity futures highlights the mentality. people are waiting for a selloff. that highlights how much money is out there. entry'm looking for an point. i'm not quite there yet. lisa: i have a couple of barrels of oil to sell you. tom: the backup on some of this foreign-exchange on a tear, that is abruptly a reverse this morning. we will do that with futures. are -413.s please stay with us on radio, on

television. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> most americans would get a payment and there would be an enhanced on employment benefit through march. the paycheck protection program would get $284 billion. that includes forgivable loans to small businesses. the house will vote on the measure today. cdc advisory panel says the elderly and front-line workers should be next in line for coronavirus vaccines. they include firefighters, teachers, grocery store workers. the first round of vaccinations is mostly going to health care workers and residents of long tear kerman facilities.

france and germany joined italy in suspending flights from the u.k. after london went into emergency lockdown. the new strain of the virus is out of control. boris johnson is allowing families to ch other at christmas. talks between the u.k. and the european union miss another deadline. either side is ready to compromise. there are two key disagreements. shares of tesla are lower on the first day. they appear in the s&p 500 index. tesla is the biggest company ever to be added to this benchmark. this is bloomberg.

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moments ago in consultation with our committees, the leaders of

the house and senate finalized an agreement. >> this bill is far from perfect, it is not the bill that we would passive democrats had a majority in the senate, it's a strong shot in the arm to help american families weather the storm. two gentlemen exhausted over a weekend on the bill, the stress if you will of trying to find stimulus. the german from kentucky in the german from new york. let me do a market check right now. it was grim two hours ago. it has recovered nicely. the vix says it all, up seven big figures. dollars strength founds the weak dollar. certitude, yen. the euro is 121.

i want to leave it there to get a good briefing on washington. kevin cirilli joins us. in the last hour, we talked about the president, his eventful weekend in the oval office. let's talk to the legislative branch. thethe president elect debt outcome he wanted with this stimulus bill? kevin: not entirely. it is still a holding pattern. to be candid, i don't think mitch mcconnell got everything he wanted with liability protections, nor did the democrats as we heard from schumer. if there was not going to be stimulus, that would have put incredible pressure on the buy demonstration when they were taking office in less than a month, for them to have a more sweeping package. stimulus,k at this

$15 billion to reinstate payroll to airlines. $2 billion for airport commissaries. $1 billion for amtrak. the paycheckfor protection program and $600 checks. it look like? how much overlay is in this bill? kevin: i spoke to a source that with in a nonpartisan role the airport regulators. the source told me the airlines were in desperate need of some stimulus. whatone illustration of people have been experiencing. minority leader schumer put it, this is a shot in the arm. what happens in georgia? does leader mcconnell maintained his slim majority in the senate?

is he able to get liability protection in the next round of negotiations? the republicans i talked to tell me this is a point of leverage mcconnell feels he has. lisa: from the people you speak with, how much of a shot in the arm does this give republicans in the georgia election? can they attack the republicans saying they did not get stimulus passed. that's the biggest contrast so to speak in terms of what happened in the november election, this was shaping up to be a closing argument for democrats. donald trump will -- ivanka trump will campaign there. joe biden campaign there. it's a high-profile race.

lisa: given the fact that there is popular support for these stimulus bills, to keep people afloat, the republicans be more amenable to additional stimulus next year if they have the majority? no, if the prism is as it is today. the perspective of the negotiation remains on simply getting people back to work. if the scope of the conversation is expanded, if it is expanded to include cybersecurity as we've seen the issue come up in digital week, to secure infrastructure, i think democrats will find more of a open ear from some republicans.

the prism of right now, no. justrepublicans are waiting to speak out against more government spending. tom: i look at where we are. it's a blur. you've got to get to the end of the season with the redskins in first place. 500 are not even playing ball. the washington football team. tom: we are trying to get to tuesday of this week. how are you going to get through monday? what you going to do in terms of the calls you were going to make? kevin: i'm interested to see and crosst the financial team agencies. that is going to be the guiding

foundation. when you are talking about this much stimulus, which is an incredible amount of money, you have to go back to roosevelt and hopkins to see this type of robust economic grassroots american worker mentality that we are shaping up to experience. tom: thank you so much. kevin cirilli with a great record -- historical perspective. are -66. the vix is 28.9. we will look at euro, the closing down of the united kingdom. sterling is 132.80.

this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪

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surveillance. ferro is off today. week, we miss him terribly. the markets are really on the move. let's review this. to see the vix go to big figures is a big deal. outside big figures, we are out almost nine big figures. that's a huge jump condition. we had the biggest consensus people had seen heading into 2021. weaker and weaker dollar, that

is being challenged today. raising questions about the stability of this, it's actually eased off. this is the first real selloff we've seen. was the two year yield handled for a bit. we are back to some form of normality. at two year yield comes in for basis points as well. oil is showing some angst. brent crude is down two dollars. now is bank lombard. this is there head of foreign-exchange strategy. the shut down in the united kingdom, by air, by sea, shut down across the channel, how will that filter into the financial markets of europe and the united kingdom? it's been manifesting

as we speak. generalized way, it's a mood in the market. treat it mored to as a temporary health event. eu iserstanding is the having an emergency meeting at see how they alleviate restrictions. for cannot be put in place a long amount of time. the same time, the market is keeping an eye on the brexit negotiations. they are still at a deadlock. we need to take that more into account. you be tactical this morning it? ago, we really

rebounded nicely this morning. placeu be tactical and trades and bets this morning? vasileios: i think this morning right now, there is very high-frequency trading. i wouldn't want to do anything it. we are struggling with something that is very temporary and short-term, something that cap more structural implications. ensure we need to keep in mind the big picture is the vaccine rollout. the pandemic outlook is much better going into 2021. perspective, there is a recovering global trade. rally in the dollar will provide opportunities for

reentering. case.that may be the the move we saw today, which was the strengthening of the dollar going back to march, it brings up positioning. people are piled into the same trades, whether it's long s&p, short the dollar. how much does that increase volatility going forward. it increases a big spike in volatility. ofare talking about a lot equities. dollar shorts are piling then. the euro dollar is long. it is very quite likely. there will be a point and i don't think we are very far away

of this, we are going to see some cleaning of the physician. i think we are going to see another in the dollar basically. lisa: do you try to understand the tipping point? do you feel it out? vasileios: i think you have to, you have to look at the number of various indicators. you look at various reversals. you also look at the expense anti-depth of the individual cards. you combine all of these indicators and signals and you come up with some sort of trade you would like to apply when you theeve the rallying of

dollar is behind us. tom: i love it when our listeners and viewers mail in. the likelihood of negative interest rates across the united kingdom and the united states? everyone is telling us this isn't going to happen. look, that's a very good question. tom: this guy john ascot. -- asked it. vasileios: anything is possible. if you asked me to assign much --ities, we have a said they are studying another exponentially. there have been voices who have been supporting negative rates.

if i was to bat for one versus the other, i would say they are bringing negative territory. that is more likely compared to the fed. permanence toa the em strength we've seen it, regardless of the united states dollar? is there a new permanence to e.m. strength? is an elementre of truth in that. that is largely because of china. we areng about china is at the pre-pandemic level. presence.very strong the pandemic emanated in china. they managed to overtake such a big crisis very quickly.

i think that increases the confidence for investors. --the extent you have these you see the authorities relaxed , the the general strength trend strength we see. has steps toccount internationalize even more. i think that gives you a solid out of china. outcome you a solid around china. a lot of people are pointing to the trillions and trillions of cash central banks have been pumping into the financial systems, directing risk assets. how much of an effect to all terry policies have --

policies have? how much do you view this as a guidepost for an exchange may do? vasileios: that's an excellent question. that brings us back to the point i made earlier. ton the fed dropped rates zero, it broke the level playing field. to that extent of when you compare countries with cooperate thin 50 basis points of the level playing field, monetary policy is not going to be that much affected. day, even of the quantitative easing can work in ways we didn't expect. had a massive package. we had further stimulus.

when monetary policy can play we see theere percentage of 200 basis points. that will increase because some central banks stop becoming more focused. it is difficult for me to imagine playing an important role. that's a terrific briefing on a two mulch was monday morning. i look at the end. the surprises more than anything. the yen has a back up against the strong bollard. -- dollar. lisa: the market doesn't want to stay down. keyink that highlights this question, how much can we see a selloff given how much money central banks have printed. this is the question. the markets are not a barometer

of economic health. how much can we see a selloff? herewhat is so interesting and important is the idea of the medicine involved in this pandemic, in this variant or mutation of the virus that is the cause of the latest crisis in the united kingdom. will that transfer to europe? things.number of it is likely. we will have to see how that plays out in the coming days. we will bring you those from johns hopkins. are -440.s the vix is 28.72. we are out over 30 earlier. isgermany, the two-year -7.44.

please stay with us on radio. on television. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> lawmakers won't have much time to review a $900 billion economic stimulus land. both the house and senate are scheduled to vote on it today. most americans would get a $600 payment. enhancedld be $300 in unemployment benefits. the paycheck program would get forgivable loans to small businesses. officials acknowledge there would be time to look at the russian hack on government agencies. mitt romney says russia acted with impunity. president trump has a blind spot about it. the president is contradicted intelligence officials and suggested china may be behind

the attack. president trump is turning to the supreme court to challenge the election in pennsylvania. it's another longshot appeal eight overturning three decisions from pennsylvania's court. the supreme court has rejected to efforts to overturn the victory in pivotal states. elon musk has had an exchange of tweets with a prominent booster of bitcoin. he urged must to shift you have dollars from the electric carmaker into bitcoin. he would be doing shareholders a favor. wall street is set for big buybacks at the first of the year. the biggest banks will be able to buy back $11 billion of their own shares. they got the green light to resume purposes after economic

stress tests on the bank. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we believe tesla will be in the pole position to dominate,

mostly because of its advantages in artificial intelligence and the amount of data it has collected. the winner in autonomous is going to have the most data and the highest quality data. that company right now is tesla. would, she is getting some notoriety over a terrific performance in trying to figure out innovation, trying to bet on a market to the moon. he is an oppenheimer company. tesla just goes and goes, confounding those that are negative. what's the next hurdle for

tesla? are a few hurdles given where we are at. they have a couple of factories they need to wrap. the quote you were talking thet, it hits the heart of matter. the company is going to have one million vehicles on the road collecting data for their ai system. taking that data and turn it into products that consumers could use, we think the company can use that for a fleet. tesla joining the s&p 500, what tesla does, is an unusual to you? is it business as usual as a fly sign -- highflying stock? clearly, with this,

investors are trying to come to the right exposure on this transformation. tesla has exposure on each of those elements. this is where you get exposure on a lot of disruption. lisa: this has been an incredibly difficult company to map out in terms of its trajectory. people call it a faith-based stock. we were talking about data and artificial intelligence, electric vehicles. you are talking about carbon credits. -- peter atwater said this could be a trojan horse for the s&p. clarity intoack of

its future, you agree? colin: i don't all. it's important to disagree with you on one point. at the end of the day, they are creating some very important technology that is transforming the economy. companyhallenge for a of the side and voluntarily -- volatility. goinggo forward, we are to watch this company closely. ofh the broader base investors, there is some hope. lisa: what about the argument that ford and general motors could rival tesla given their

manufacturing of and their experience making cars. toin: i think it's important of ip ands a lot material ip that goes into data reproduction. we saw that earlier this year. beyond that, taking that chemical energy in the battery and turn it into a propulsion system is complicated. of know-how in how the motor works. that, in terms of simplifying for a lightweight. there are capable companies out there. service trying to

legacy technology. all of the auto industry is challenged with the market. you've got consumer electronics and tesla is ahead of the focus. buried in the library at wesley in and there was a copy you didn't read it. in graham isn't donnan connell. two dollars to $31, why is that? about it's really investors looking for companies that are disrupting the big markets we were talking about. more importantly, looking at the right factor for a mode of application.

that, they are in warehouses, what are we going to see in terms of application strategy and? technology at this point, major plants are producing free hydrogen. that company is something that has all of the key elements. we see them executed well over the next number of years. lisa: thank you so much. thereg about tactless and -- tesla and their inclusion in the s&p. i got called out for saying it was pocket change. tom: you are correct. lisa: it highlights the volatility of this massive stock, entering one of the main

benchmarks around the world. tom: i did do a standard deviation. i take your point. it's going to have a more inherent volatility than stuff we follow. s&p futures are negative. that's a lot better than two hours ago. that thehave the sense news has changed slightly, not enough to change the backdrop. they are trying to step up and put some money into the system. a sense the pandemic will end. fromthe euro is 121, down 122. the dollar is stronger. i don't want to oversell this. it's a real push back against the weak dollar. it's a difficult day for the united kingdom.

we've got the stimulus in washington. in the u.k., horrific virus news, the shedding of their borders. common upon the credit market. tv, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there is an argument to made it we've gone too far too fast. >> there will be a day of reckoning. >> you look at hiring, you see permanent layoffs. >> it's possible you will see numbers start to disappoint. that's another reason why the fed is intact. going to doot anything. it >> the timing of the spend has shifted. >> i see the economy getting back to normal. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom