>> certainly there's an argument to be made that perhaps we have gone up a little too far, too fast. , youen you look at hiring are seeing permanent layoffs increase. >> it is quite possible you will see numbers start to disappoint. >> the real yield hasn't gone up, which is another reason why the fed has to act. >> the way people are spending, the timing of that has really shifted. >> i do see the economy getting back to something close to normal in the second half of next year. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. good morning, everyone. a simulcast, bloomberg radio. good morning nationwide come around the world. good morning, bloomberg television. extraordinary volatility yesterday gives way too red and green on the screen for

equity markets. 24.vix 31 comes into something like 1900 round dow points yesterday. lisa, what was great earlier is how we have come back, how we have rebounded so quickly. lisa: was it a viable dip? the answer, yes. what it really highlights is just the momentum is pushing towards further gains despite some concerns about the moment we have already seen. tom: our most important conversation of the day not about finance, economics, wall street, all of that. with the guy that runs a port of dover -- the port of dover in southeast england, all of that trauma of trucks lined up back to canterbury, back to jon ferro's coventry. there is a confidence, maybe not on brexit, but at least adding a lockdown united kingdom

straightened out. lisa: given the fact that we are less than two minutes into the show and jon ferro isn't here, it is our obligation to talk about brexit. that is very much front and center this week. there is a question, how much could a worsening of the pandemic lead to disruption in supply chains or other material disruptions in the economy? we are going to get a read on ancient history at 8:30 a.m., the third reading on u.s. q3 gdp . again, we are expect into see that 33% rebound for the third relief again, it is ancient history because we are looking at deterioration of the economic statistics is the pandemic does continue to spread. 10:00 a.m., consumer confidence for the month of december. interesting to see some of the more high-frequency data. p.m., u.s. commerce secretary wilbur ross will be speaking with david westin of bloomberg television.

i really want to hear what he has to say about the russian hack into a number of u.s. agencies. we haven't talked that much about that, but we keep getting dribbling's out of all of this, and frankly, it does seem like a pretty significant story. tom: i will admit, with the new slope, we have underplayed the russian hack. wonderful team on this. we will focus on that through the morning as well. right now, i think it is important to look at the data and go right to the equity markets because that has been the great mystery into 2021. red and green on the screen, but the nasdaq 100 buttressed up near record highs, up 0.4%, 49 points. 12,700 is the operative statistic there. the dow pack above 30,000 on futures. the yield space matures, but weaker dollar coming off the

gloom we saw yesterday in that flight to strong dollar. we basically reverse that with euro $1.2241. i guess i will mention gold. thank you, did this goldman, for wisdom there. the ounce. thishan joins us on market. you look for durability that to orseems a persistency momentum. tell us about the physics of a durable small-cap market. anna: you bring a great point. what can last? what is a trade we can sink our teeth into an ride foldable quarters, not just a day, a week for multipleide quarters, not just a day, a week? now you are starting to see that

your to date, small caps are leading by a couple of percentage points. we think that is just the beginning, and it is not just small caps. we like that contrarian love momentum trade as well. lisa: there was a story in "the financial times" that talked about a near record numbers of zombie companies among small caps, companies that are no longer able to make enough money to cover their interest payments, and this comes at a time when companies are incurring record amounts of debt. is that concerning to you at all? anna: it absolutely is because when things are cheap, you want to make sure they are not cheap for a reason. when we see credit liquidity and you see the fed really providing capital and access to this capital, companies that are able to take advantage of that appropriately are the ones we are targeting. those are the valued companies we think have a chance at outpacing the benchmark in the next month and quarters to come,

but these zombie companies are the value trap you really want to avoid. lisa: how do you determine which are the value traps, which are the zombies, and which are not? the next amazon, that is really the hard thing to predict here. but i think you go back to the basics and the fundamentals. you have seen some elevated valuations in some of the trades over the past couple years that have discounted fundamentals a bit, but you've really got to keep your feet on the ground here. look back to the balance sheet. look at the earnings of these companies, and look at what the projection is. most importantly, in the equity game, look where investor expectations are. tom: i want to get you in trouble with your general counsel. can you monitor your double-digit return for 2021? tom: frankly, that is not really -- anna: frankly, that is not really what we see. returns fortrian

2021. but rather than the absolute macro play here, it is the relative gain. what was in the s&p 500, or what parts of the market do we see potential for a double-digit growth? that is going to be in the more cyclical sectors, the ones more tied to the economic recovery, and a little bit of the more high-risk group. tom: what is the lesson learned from the tech dominance of the last 18 months? it is not that everybody got that wrong and there is a consensus call that we are going to ebb away from a tech dominance, but what is the lesson learned from you -- learned for you? anna: it is to respect the momentum trade, the phase that is in play. there's a reason that valuations were high, but given the liquidity we have and this pandemic we have gone through, it is not surprising to see the winners continue to win through times of difficulty. but now that we are seeing a bit

of a turning in the corner, we are seeing a rotation out of that as of these valuations that really have reached too far for investors, and investors are deciding that the value game is in play, and this really could be the beginning of a long-term regime change. lisa: we are speaking with anna han of wells fargo, equity strategist. a lot of people were discussing the addition of tesla to the s&p and how that would increase the volatility of large caps going forward. i wonder what your take on this is, especially after the tesla stock has been the third-most volatile stock in the s&p over the past five months, behind norwegian cruise line and carnival. anna: that is an interesting point you bring up. that is something that impacts us a lot. how does this affect my overall benchmark? as a portfolio, when you add a new constituent, it very much depends on how that constituent plays in the sandbox with the others. just because you are adding

something with a higher volatility than the benchmark doesn't necessarily mean the benchmark volatility will go up. it depends on how it moves with the other 400 or 99 names. so we are not surprised to see valuations on the s&p 500 have screeched up a touch, and you may see that volatility go up a , but broader scale, used to have several other names, and how that relatively -- that volatility plays and we will have to see. tom: you've got to stay with us. you single-handedly lifted the market here. anna han nailing it for wells fargo. futures up nine, dow futures up seven, and the nasdaq 100 really leading the way, up 57 points. we are not at a record high there, but we are getting there rapidly. lisa, your observation on the markets when you look at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. lisa: all i can say is the look of fear when you say to anna that you will stay with us for

the next two hours, which was palpable. bonds are boring. today the market is not really doing anything. people taking a pause. but what i find interesting is the in coherency and some of the innerworkings come of the idea that bond yields are generally still trending lower even after the stimulus plan, even as people lift expectations for next year. i wonder what it will take to shake that. coventry emails in and says talk about euro. [laughter] lisa: yeah right. tom: euro plunged yesterday down to a very weak $1.2130, and we come back 80%. we don't do enough euro. is hermetically sealed in a tier six locked down, we just don't do enough. he's now tier six instead of tier seven? that is all good.

in all seriousness, he's reading the pages that were released yesterday hours before congress voted on them of the stimulus bill. he will be coming back talk about your red sox and how much they are getting from that. tom: they are getting $6 billion to fix their relief pitching. we will see how that goes this year. i want to look at the data now. the vix comes in. it was in 0.44 points. we now come in a solid 0.85 points. that is a risk on feel. certainly we see that in the last 10 minutes in the market, with the dollar weaker. i really got to watch dollar now. dxy down to 90.09 to see an 89 to 90.09. to see an 89 handle would really be something incredible. we are thrilled in the next hour to bring you mark last three. this is going to be a really important discussion not only on

the state of the stress, but mark last three on the state of alternative investment in hedge funds. on his make it a comment clark university. stay with us. on radio and tv, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. it is a spending bill that has something for everyone. the senate gave final approval to a measure that combines coronavirus relief with regular government funding and tax breaks for businesses. president trump will sign the measure into law. it includes 900 dollars in economic relief. the second largest such measure in u.s. history. most americans will get a one-time payment of $600, plus enhanced jobless benefits will be extended. cyber attackers are said to have targeted senior officials at the treasury department, according

to senator ron wyden. but the extent of the attack isn't known. meanwhile, irs data and taxpayer data don't show any signs of attack. joe biden says the trump administration deserves some credit for the government program that speeded up vaccine develop met. the president-elect made the remarks last receiving a vaccine shot in delaware. biden joined vice president mike pence and other political figures who have gotten the vaccine in an attempt to boost public confidence. it is another setback in post-brexit trade talks. the european union has rejected the uk's latest offer on fishing rights. the u.k. proposed that the eu reduce the amount of fish it british waters by about 1/3. last week, the u.k. insisted on a 60% cut. on the s&p 500 wasn't a cheap one for investors.

in the first day of trading, shares fell as much a 7%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- and on bloomberg quicktake. i'm ritika gupta. this

mr. biden: this is just the beginning. it is one thing to get the vaccine now, and now moderna is

going to be on the road as well, but it is going to take time. it will take time. tom: we are getting used to a president-elect two is a little bit different than the many presidents before him. again, i believe 77 years old, and vaccining up yesterday. kevin cirilli is in charge of vaccines for "bloomberg surveillance," our chief washington correspondent as well. i've got to ask the obvious question. vice president pence has had a vaccination. president-elect biden has had a vaccination. do we expect president trump to line up and get vaccinated? kevin: there are sources i talked to who want to president get a vaccine, and to use it as an opportunity for him to discuss the successful nature of the public-private partnership that cap this vaccine into the u.s. in a matter of eight to nine months, but we have not

date on when he will get it. tom: let me ask you an open question after an exhausting night. i know you got out to page 3000. what in the stimulus bill has your attention? kevin: with regards to the federal reserve lending facility , senator pat toomey was negotiating up until the last possible minute with democrats in terms of whether or not, and the next round of congress, there would be a clone clause inc. in the 5500 page economics to be with bill that will prevent democrats from being able to use federal reserve lending facilities to fund state and local governments. this was really the battle. it was twofold. first and foremost, getting the leftover funds back to fund the crux of the $900, but also to prevent democrats from using federal reserve lending againties from happening in the next round of economic

relief battle, when president-elect biden is sworn in. i bring this up because yesterday i spoke with two senior staffers to senator pat toomey, and asked about the criticism they have received with regards to the independence of the federal reserve. they pushed back on that criticism and said to me that they believe that the fed should be the lender of last resort, not the lender of first resort which is what they were hoping to prevent from happening. lisa: it is a conversation that i'm sure will be heated and ongoing. any push forward to next year? when do the provisions laid out by this latest round of stimulus expire? what is the appetite to do more? kevin: march is when the next round of enhanced unemployment benefits expire. in addition to that, we touched on the fed lending facilities' liability reforms. republicans were unable to get liability protections reforms as comprehensive as they would've

liked. other part of your question about the appetite for the next round of leaf, it is going to come down to bargaining power, and that runs through georgia. will republicans have the bargaining power for liability protection reforms? will the democrats be able to push for further funding for state and local governments? we will find out in georgia in just a couple of days now. we are down to the wire. lisa: we really are. we keep talking about state and local financing and the abstract or monolith. within this bill, there was financing for public transportation, financing for state led efforts with respect to vaccinating, as well as testing. what are the remaining aspects of state and local financing that has not been supported by the federal government that still will be a contentious issue? kevin: they want more money.

while public transportation was portion,h -- or was a do not use descriptors, of this $900 billion proposal, democrats are arguing that there needs to be a significantly more investment invested into public infrastructure. digital infrastructure could also be a part of the conversation, very quickly, i would note i talked to republicans looking at the $7 trillion in the national debt, and that conversation is only going to grow louder in the months ahead. tom: you have been way out front on measuring the moderates. how do the moderates do on this stimulus bill? kevin: they won. for the problem solvers caucus, the republicans and democrats who worked together to get this, because, and this isn't

a critique of speaker pelosi, it is a critique of the original price text democrats pushed for him upwards of $3 trillion, and when you look at the opposite side of that with what republicans are pushing for, which was don't spend money, 900 billion dollars was because of republicans, as well as democrats representing suburbs as well as more bipartisan areas of the country who said this is the path forward, and the centre held. tom: on the beltway and inside washington, i thought the autopsy of the democratic party in the post overnight was absolutely extraordinary. carryforward on that. in how much of a panic are democrats over their performance ? kevin: it is going to be interesting to see whether or not those cries for the identity

crisis of coming from the progressives in the party are going to grow louder or fade depending on the results of georgia. that will always be the flashpoint in a lame-duck type of runoff election. i mention that because regardless of the outcome of georgia, senate majority leader mitch mcconnell was just elected to another six-year term. if you look historically at the tenures for speakers of the house, that would suggest his tenure will outlast, where he is the minority leader or senate minority leader, that of the current occupant of the speakership in nancy pelosi in the house of representatives. so there always is jockeying in the house of representatives. it is the nature of the institution itself. but it is going to grow louder over the next six to nine months. tom: thank you so much.

green on the screen, and i slipped to the market. about 400 futures are points, just a little bit from record high. it will be interesting to see if we get there. the vix comes in even more. what do you see? lisa: the lesson of the past couple of days is don't count the market out. we are looking at session highs on futures. i just keep thinking, even if you don't have a depth, people are going to buy. that has been the consensus, and continues to be heading into 2021. back a full basis point, so a nice recovery. risk on field to the markets this morning. you havep nine lisa: been so good about the negative real yields. today they are actually the most negative they have been in several months, and i think that is interesting. inflation x petitions going up. yields remaining really suppressed. tom: i look at that chart an

hour ago. switzerland flat, united kingdom flat, europe a little bit of an bb up, and the u.s. on a tear to higher inflation. nathan sheets of pgim. that's every year, we set out to do one thing: help the world believe in holiday magic. and this year was harder than ever. and yet, somehow, you all found a way to pull it off. it's not about the toys or the ornaments but about coming together. santa, santa, you're on mute! just wanted to say thanks. thanks for believing.

♪ tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." it's a simulcast, bloomberg radio, uber television. lisa abramowicz -- bloomberg television. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro is off. he's on a tear seven lockdown. let's do it at a data check right now. ,he vix comes in almost a stick 24.30. 31 was the level yesterday. i am going to say we are 70% back to the team spirit -- the team spirit of nevada of yesterday. the dow buttressed right up against record highs. all you need to know is the calming influence, if not really

risk on. curve steepening a little bit, wondering up the exchange. dollar, stronger dollar yesterday. you really got crushed, though. you had a great day yesterday in your tripper levered cash. -ple leveredto four all-cash. all in all, a weaker dollar. euro gets my attention. europe has received the attention of nathan sheets in an esteemed career as under secretary of treasury, provided leadership on international affairs, with the international monetary fund. he did terrific work, and then leading the charge on international economics at citigroup. he's now with pgim and has had a terrific year melding economics

into their global call on fixed income. nathan, let me go back here just a bit. in melding0 for you economics into the animals like greg peters? nathan: well, that's a great question. that is my challenge, but i hand isat the task at very much articulating an economic narrative, and the narrative for 2020 has been quite clear. it has been about viruses and lockdowns, and then bounce backs as that lockdown has eased and come back in again. i think are investors pay a lot of attention to what is going on in the macro, and also bring with them the micro market narrative. tom: someone that can do that is janet yellen. it will be the great transition from fed to treasury you know

chair yellen quite well. what will janet yellen be like a secretary of the treasury? what will be her challenge in that political shift? nathan: i think the employment of janet yellen -- the appointment of janet yellen to be secretary of the treasury is a splendid appointment. she comes with platinum plated credibility. when she speaks, others will listen to her across the political spectrum. the treasury is a different building than the federal reserve, but i think that janet yellen's insights into the labor market are going to be critical in helping to get the economy back on normal footing. i think it will be very hopeful there, like the actual regulation managing the dollar, the china relationship. these are all things that she has thought about and dealt with at the federal reserve and as and i can to make for many

years. i think she will have a very six .ctive and constructive tenure lisa: there's been some concern about whether she will continue the strong dollar being a good thing narrative, or whether she will piggyback with what president trump was saying and what a lot of economists say, which is that a weaker dollar will give a tailwind to the u.s. economy. nathan: i think this is one of the key issues on the international side of the treasury. on one hand, i think there might be a case that the strong dollar alicy has been around for long time. can we still say that a strong dollar is in the u.s. interest, and particularly in the interest of u.s. workers? i think for some time, organized labor has challenged that. on the other hand, the strong dollar did a lot of positive and constructive things that policy in the international realm,

where the united states' moral standing said we will play by the rules, and we expect others to play by the rules as well. it,hey want to deviate from what would another structure look like? would it carry those positive benefits of allowing the united states to influence the policies of other countries in the same way? i think it is something they are going to be struggling with. lisa: we are speaking with nathan sheets of pgim. the backdrop today is of vaccines that are gaining steam, a 900 billion dollars stimulus bill that was passed in congress, and just now crossing the bloomberg that alex azar, the head of hhs, essay into expect late february, early march general vaccine programs -- hhs, is saying to expect late february, early march general vaccine programs. is the fiscal support already on the table enough to carry the

economy through? nathan: my feeling is the goal was to build a bridge, and this $900 billion stimulus package certainly does that. over the next few months, we will be putting a 4% of gdp into the economy, 17% at an annual rate. i think it protects the economy from downside risk, and importantly protects the most vulnerable parts of the household distribution, as well as small firms that may be at risk. so i think it does very effectively build that bridge into the vaccine. i think once the vaccine arrives , put on your seatbelt. i thing this economy could really rip. tom: i want to go to your wheelhouse, which is international economic dynamics, the idea of the movable parts out there. does a dollar move in 2021 with

a traditional framework, or are things so distorted that we need a different prison to look at dollar six months or a year from now? nathan: i think this is a fantastic question. dollar isa weaker associated with a stronger euro, and as the euro moves, that then escalates and moves into the emerging market space. but i think we are in a place where on the one hand, the dollar is likely to weaken. on the other hand, i am not sure that euro area is well-placed, given the, challenges they are facing with the virus. happen in it could the end space. tom: you are truly world-class on this. there's a do men bloom fear out ruben dollar redux. aren't we in a largely floating exchange rate economy where we

have done away with so many of the rigidities of those older systems? nathan: when we go back and look at some of those past accords where there were broad agreements with respect to andency, the miss valuation miss alignments were must -- were much larger. sector was much larger. on the one hand, i don't see those same misalignments. i would expect some broad-based agreement. and on the other hand, it is a lot harder for the public sector to enforce its will on the fx market. so i think at the end of the day, it is about these macro fundamentals, and i think that going to a somehow weaker dollar may not point to a stronger euro from here. lisa: how much is inflation part

of that weaker dollar call? nathan: my feeling is that inflation over the medium term is going to stay relatively muted as it was before the pandemic. as we are coming out of this we have a could temporary boost in inflation where there are some bottlenecks and shortages? yes. so in general, we will continue to be a low-inflation environment, and from my view of a weaker dollar -- and so my view of a weaker dollar is not so much predicated on an inflation call. lisa: you have said that the next year, you could see the economy, to use your high-level rip."ic speak, "really so i wonder what the consequences will be if we continue with this goldilocks scenario where we can see growth

and jobless rates go down, and inflation stay muted. can you walk us through that whole narrative? nathan: my feeling is that during the second half of next ,ear, as the economy is booming we are likely to see some shortages and bottlenecks manifest themselves in a temporary period of somewhat elevated inflation. to some extent, we saw that in the third quarter of this past year as we came out of the spring lockdowns. but then as we move into 2022 and beyond, these deep structural factors like demographics to leveraging automation and inflation expectations being well anchored on the downside would reinsert themselves, and will continue to withlow-inflation world perhaps even further disinflation as we continue to age. tom: nathan sheets, thank you for wisdom across this 2020.

look forward to speaking to you into the new year. with pgim, nathan sheets joins us this morning. futures with a lift. talkingare -- mr. azar about a vaccine over at fox. , way incomes in nicely from the gloom yesterday, down to 24.3. really says it all. i've got to go back to weak dollar, which has reasserted itself over the last 24 hours. lisa: it is a reversal of what we saw yesterday, and it comes after this stimulus bill. again, on one hand, if it supports the economy, you would think it would increase the dollar. on the other hand my generally a risk on feel, which is what the support means, is a weaker dollar. tom: we talked about this earlier this morning, but you really wonder pacific rim dynamics this year as well, another one of the great

mysteries. we will drive forward this conversation on international investment, but simply on how to catch up after missing this great pandemic recovery. lisa: who are you talking about? tom: everything. [laughter] come on. brian levitt of invesco to salvage my portfolio. and tv, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. now it is up to president trump. white house aides say the president will sign a giant spending bill that combines coronavirus relief, regular government funding, and tax breaks for businesses. the senate gave final approval last night. there's $900 billion in economic relief, the second largest such measure in u.s. most americans will get a one-time $600 payment , plus enhanced unemployment benefits will be extended. in texas, coronavirus

hospitalizations surpassed 10,000 for the first time in five months. the second largest state in the u.s. is struggling with the latest wave of infections. traumahalf of texas's service areas have more than 50% of their capacity occupied by coronavirus patients. the u.k. is trying to reopen trade routes to france after a day of chaos. france shut down traffic from of a fast fear spreading mutant strain of the coronavirus. that caused the government to impose a strict locked down on london and surrounding areas. and fixed income traders at deutsche bank may get rewarded for a bumper year. the german lender may raise their bonuses by roughly 10%. the debt traders have kept ceo christian sewing s turnaround plan ash christian seven's- christian turnaround -- christian sewing's

turnaround plan on track. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> there will be relief for millions of americans by extending unemployment benefits.

we're looking at the final leg which, 10 or 11 weeks -- final language, 10 or 11 weeks. also making millions available need moreses that money for the logistics of the vaccination campaign, help for the schools. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance." the gentleman from springfield, illinois with david westin yesterday. of course, a lot in there. i heard about tax benefits for racehorse owners, policy on tibet, and some assistance to the boston red sox to get their pushing straightened out as well. lisa: what paid was that on? tom: it's on page 2312. lisa: who did you have to pay offer that one? tom: it was lobbying like you couldn't imagine that it took to get that done, and i would like to thank senator markey of messages for advocating for it.

right now we are going to digress. we have been doing wonderful work on economics with nathan sheets. brian levitt to join us in a moment. we are good to have gina martin adams on come on her wonderful courage through this pandemic to stay in the stock market. we have to digress because we haven't done this yet, and lisa said we've got to do tesla. gina martin adams on tesla and the s&p 500. an elon musk s&p 500 look like? gina: i think lisa is correct to suggest we need to talk about this because this is one of the underlying trends that has created the stall speed for the s&p 500 over the last day or so. tesla interesting about being added to the s&p 500 is probably more but it doesn't do to the index than what it does. there's this overwhelming fear out there that we are going to see volatility in the s&p 500

suddenly spiked because of the addition of tesla. well, tesla has been in the bloomberg large-cap index for the last several years. over the last year, the bloomberg large-cap index was simply the 500 top-ranked by market cap in the united states. the average daily price changes, otherwise known as volatility, is exactly the same for that index versus the s&p 500 over the last year, so simply adding tesla to an index of 500 doesn't change the volatility on the index largely at all, but the investment universe is complete captivated by this idea and really thinks that tesla is owing to create a sea change. it is not counting alphabet, it is google, so if you take out the top six, tesla is number six or seven. hathaway,f berkshire

j&j, and a small bank in new york. lisa: basically, it is a myth that tesla's inclusion make it tom'solatile, but to point, all of these behemoths, apple, facebook, all of these are such large parts of the s&p at this point and the nasdaq if any of that them have volatility, it is going to push around the index much more than it had in the past. does this lead to increased volatility down the line? gina: probably not because the volatility of those bigger names is only declining over time. this is not a trend that happened just in 2020 or necessarily purely a reflection of what is happening with respect to coronavirus. but if you look at the stocks like google and facebook and amazon as good examples of this, they were much more volatile five years ago than they are today. they were also more expensive stocks five years ago than they are today. they are growing into their valuations and growing into

their s&p 500 status. -- theyy, their big cap are big cap tech stocks, but they are significantly more defensive than smaller segments of the index. the most high beta segments of the index right now are value-oriented, energy, materials, commodity sensitive names. you would have to have a really significant change in how these stocks trade. he would have to have a very significant change in their profitability sort of status in the index to experience such a massive change in volatility if it were to be driven by those names. i think the bigger story is the imbalance that has been going on in the s&p 500. it has become a very gross heavy index and a very value light index, at a point in time when value stocks should start to

outperform growth stocks. we think this is an enduring trade into 2021. that could leave the s&p 500 continuously lagging. much morning bow, much more volatile, much more value-oriented segments of not only the u.s. come up the world equity market. lisa: how significant do you expect this to be? gina: we don't make for -- we don't make forecasts necessarily, but i think the trend is higher growth entities will outperform over the course of 2021 to outperform slower growth companies. in general, the lower, cheaper stocks will outperform, the emerging markets, the more volatile stocks globally should outperform some of the more defensive sorts of stories really drove 2020 as we move our way into recovery. tom: very quickly here, consensus is consensus. what does consensus have wrong right now?

gina: it is a really good question. i think what the consensus has wrong is the degree to which the fed could maintain very low rates for an extended time. you've got a consensus that thanks that right through 2023, the fed is going to have the back of the equity market, but at the same time, everyone is talking about the potential for at least a short term inflation spike. i think we are maybe overestimating how much the fed is going to be able to tolerate and inflation build in late 2021, early 2022, and we did very well be talking about the fed backpedaling in terms of their accommodative policy i next year or early 2022. tom: congratulations to be in the equity market running our shop at bloomberg intelligence. i bring up the fomc schedule, and off of what secretary a czar -- secretary azar said, what is a mystery to me is the complete mystery of the april 28 meeting next year.

who knows where we will be then? lisa: and what gina martin adams was just talking about, crude echoing some of the things we saw last week. if you have inflation excitations of 2% over the next five to 10 years, at what point will the fed have to back away from ultralow -- from ultralow interest rates start to have to talk about raising again? tom: chris verrone publishing moments ago over extra tickets strategas- over at research. i am not quite sure what to make of that. lisa: that also comes on the heels of the approval of reinstating share buybacks by the federal reserve last week. it was friday afternoon they came out, and this led to a huge surge in the values yesterday of some of the biggest banks. we can see they are expected to buy back $11 billion of shares in the first quarter of next year.

tom: onto the pandemic. coming up, this is an extremely important conversation. these are the leaders in bacteriology and the microbiology of this pandemic. deborah fuller will join from the university of washington and their acclaimed medical school. this is bloomberg on radio, on tv. good morning. ♪

>> this really is a stopgap. it has come really late, and it is a little lame, honestly. >> i don't know if it makes a lot of sense to give people that have jobs and incomes checks at this point. >> this is not a normal environment, hard from it. so the way people are spending, the timing of that has really shifted. >> i do cs getting back to some the close to normal in the second half of next year. >> it will take a long time before we have a normal end of your gain. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. lisa: