that keeps on giving. president trump overrides courts, juries, and prosecutors, and the presidency is "a hoax." this isbraska they say " rotten to the core." years, first time in 53 the president vetoes the defense spending guilt -- bill. the veto.ust override it is christmas eve among the pandemic partition. there is no stimulus or income replacement. under the tree, the mercedes suv starts at 160,500 with vibration reduction for the kids in the shofar, and they can listen nonstop to mariah carey killing it this year, in the 26th year of all i want for christmas, that classic hit. >> were you the one who got me

that car? it is thel you, strangest christmas eve ever. we welcome all of you. we have great guests to help you -- help us with this. we have some others in the next couple of hours and my brain is freezing. lefton saidan ferro i wish for you to talk about brexit for all of next week because i have zero desire to hear about it. well, merry christmas. tom: i want to start with the basic idea, the markets are closed. bonds are in their own world. lisa: everyone is going home. and everyone has if you look at look at the price action. tom: we are looking at brexit, and the markets. i do not think christmas eve is an entry point, i do not believe it.

with our first word news, good morning. ritika: president trump has paul -- his 2016 campaign manager, paul manafort. he had been convicted on financial crimes. he also parted roger stone who had already commuted stone's sentence for lying to congress. -- his pardoned the son-in-law. convicted ofw was crimes including witness retaliation. nancy pelosi has sought unanimous consent to increase stimulus. but house republicans are likely to block the attempt. he was in a call with gop lawmakers. if the attempt is stopped, my credits will introduce a bill that will raise payments from $600 to 2000. u.k. and european union resolve their differences over fishing rights and are set to unveil a

post-brexit trade agreement. negotiators worked to polish the compromise. theill formally complete separation four point five years after the 2016 referendum. there's a monopoly investigation into alibaba, and at the same time regulations have styled them -- have summoned them to a meeting. this is part of a broader effort to rein in the increasingly powerful internet sector. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. more in the markets, let us brief you on that before the bond closes. futures up nine, a continued left. 30,108 up 74 points. figurescomes in nine

off the crisis of three or four days ago. 22 point 55 is constructive. bonds tell me nothing. 10 year tips of a -1.05. recovery,ut to her 13601. lisa: the sterling is the one moving spot, otherwise it is the day before, a big holiday. looking at the futures. one point -- .1%. the dollar, a little bit of weakness on the strength we are seeing in the eurovision -- euro area. it seems like everyone is already home. tom: it is the markets and the moment of this pandemic, but what is so important is that we also have the pandemic, but we finally have britain and the ofopean union at some form agreement. nancy goodman is -- matthew

goodman is a professor of international politics. i am hearing back and forth and all of the platitudes. what matters right now? matthew: good morning from a cold london. what matters for boris johnson is that he is able to sell a deal showing a meaningful break from the european union. on those all-important tension points around fishing, a level playing field and how we will police the deal, and he you say with a straight face that he has delivered on his election promise to deliver the withdrawal agreement, and to sign a deal with the european union. the lost in translation is support of the prime minister. i look at the british newspapers and one has one angle and one has another. i cannot tell how the prime minister fits in with the people

of the united kingdom. where does he? matthew: this is the most important moment, potentially in historys postwar alongside that referendum. what boris johnson is doing is remolding britain's relationship with europe and the wider world. he promised with that three world slogan -- word slogan to get breaks and the -- brexit done, this is the entire issue. this is him delivering of the objective of his premiership to leave the european union with a deal. the one thing i would add is along the whole way over the last few years, we have consistently actually got boris johnson wrong. we said he would prefer a no deal over the withdrawal agreement. we said he would prefer a no deal over a trade deal, and it looks like he has a trade deal. this is why i personally think

he has emerged with the largest majority in reddish politics since margaret thatcher's final majority because he is able to tap into the public mood in a way that very few other politicians are able to do. lisa: let us get a picture of the significance if it may or may not be voted on between the u.k. and european union. it has been five years of contentious talks, deadlines that were false deadlines and jon ferro saying when will this be over. we have an agreement on the fishing which assumes -- which takes up zero point 15% between the u.k. and european union. what does this set us up for going forward in terms of the foundation for a new trade agreement between the e.u. and united kingdom? matthew: what it does is it avoids the very disruptive no deal alternative where there would have been a radical, sharp

break between the u.k. and european union. by putting together this thin deal covering key aspects like fishing, how we are going to police the deal, like issues around equivalence, even though we have yet to see the agreements on financial services, what it does is it creates a foundation on which u.k. and the e.u. can continue to talk and develop their relationship. there will be no return to the u.k. joining the european union in the next three decades at least, if that even happens, but it provides a skeleton that the two can work around and ensure that there is minimal disruption. tariff u.k., it means free access, meaningful break from the european courts, big control over the u.k.'s new immigration system. in terms of the

elusive concept of national sovereignty, it means that the more directly a accountable, transparent democracy. for the brexiteers, today is incredibly important. lisa: what are the big question still to be determined? tom: the big questions will be around things like financial services, like ongoing relationship beyond the provisions that have been set up in the thin deal around things to do with different sections of the economy and how they are going to be inspirations over the longer term. we have a big question mark over what we mean by global britain. boris johnson will talk about the need for the u.k. to be signing as many trade deals with non-e.u. powers as possible. we also have an interesting moment for the european union, which very few people are

pointing out. this is the first time in the history that a major power is leaving, so for the european union it will raise questions over who is going to contribute to the budget, how they are going to negotiate a move on without the united kingdom. they may say this is not going to be a big deal, but it is. bigwe have some really geopolitical strategic things still to unfold. tom: in the time we have left, help me with tier four and the politics of tier four. is it to the point where it is just what it is, or is it a labor-tory divide? matthew: i would not say it is a divide. i am in north london. it is essentially a full lockdown as we grapple with two new variants. we have a sex -- second south african variant. my prediction is that the entire

country will be in tier four almost full-blown national lockdown as we go into january and february, but let us not forget that the vaccines are getting rolled out. my mother-in-law had her vaccine. we are moving to the exit strategy as quickly as possible, which is keeping people hopeful. it will be not as smooth, but the recovery is coming. tom: thank you so much. matthew goodwin, the professor of politics and international relations. that is one of the items and there is some confusion. one million vaccinations in america but these numbers are movable. the question is as you and i learned yesterday, you have to get up to 60% of the population. lisa: in the meantime one thing i was wondering is supply disruptions and there have been delays in other areas and it is just a question of how much more does that delay when

we get that 60%. i do not think we can do this that much longer. not this, this is great. i mean the pandemic. tom: it is questionable about this. and we areve, folks, in the strangeness of strange christmas eve's and we are enjoying ourselves. we hope you do amid the pandemic. we will do much on the markets and with -- with us, the societe generale, and we will look at the weak dollar in evidence right now, with mostly strong starling. stay with us. ♪

>> the u.k. is undergoing an economic amputation, and basically having an updated brexit deal is saying that there were no complications from the surgery. >> this looks like a pretty disastrous step. perhaps they are making bets on it now, but argue that this looks like the worst condition in peace time made by any country ever. >> talking 140 plus within the first quarter. it is not my intention that it will get across the line for a little while. there is a lot of upside in that scenario as i get patched out. lisa: we have wall-to-wall brexit. we have bloomberg guests offering their views in the brexit trade deal set to be announced. our next guest noted that he tunes and occasionally at odd hours and you were always on.

merry christmas for someone who notices how hard you work. which one? we drink outside, it is good. joining us is the chief asset -- fx straddled strategist. what is your take on the pound for this brexit deal that might be signed off on today. i am looking at the pound-dollar at 1.36. that is just kissing up on that highest level since 2018. kit: relief. you have a lot of positioning in the options market with sterling falling on no deal, but it is clear that no deal during a pandemic was as bad as an idea as you could possibly imagine, even worse than the worst idea of all. i think i am on the side of people that say we will not go on a straight line, but we will go to 1.40 in the early months of next year. most of the move is going to be

sterling following the euro. up, i thinkar goes sterling will rise with the euro against the dollar. i think sterling now, it is now just this morning in the bottom half of the range it has traded in against the euro, so stronger for sterling, since the referendum, and that is the right place for it to be, but it is not far off in the right area for now. most of the storing -- story for where sterling-dollar goes, it depends on the euro going hollow -- higher in the dollar being weak. we will get positions out and get closer to 1.40 on this initial euphoria. lisa: we will be talking about brexit again or, is this behind us and we talk about the state of the economy? kit: i think this is nearly behind us. we have scrutiny by the british

parliament and a whole host of parliaments and the rest of europe, we will go on talking about that and worry about and then go on to talking about other trade deals on services. thaty, the big question is from a position where the u.k. economy looks to be the major economies are the ones that suffered most in the pandemic, and are going to be hampered even by brexit with a deal. what can boris johnson do to improve the medium long term outlook from where it is now, and that is what will be with sterling. tom: can you see assumptions, internationalp equities in front of the bullion, and it has been a moonshot. all of my radar is up on that, how do you hedge, or do you need to again stay weak dollar? kit: you need to be careful.

the big problem with 2020 outlooks is that a lot of the move happened in q4. dollar happen before we get that. because some aware markets were ahead of ourselves and foreign exchanges is a good example. and now we need to be aware about the fixing of everything. i cannot remember a time where everything was so dependent on the combination of vaccines delivering good news eventually, which i am confident of, and the federal reserve underwriting the whole thing by keeping rates down until 2023, which i am confident of everything i hear jay powell and less confidence -- confidence -- confident when we look at what the fed produces. those are the two foundation stones. tom: i think it is important. we are way out front as well. do you just assume that the

international enthusiasm will be we go through 2021 as through currency compensation? kit: i think it takes a pause. what i would like to see if -- with what we hear -- what we saw with euro-dollar when it went in -- when it went up in july. i would like to see consolidation for three months, i would like to be bored to tears of markets for three months before they make their next move. that would be healthy. we have seen a lot of new year's where we have gone back. i do not think i would like that -- the idea about pandemic concerns returning and nerves around the u.s. political process after the results in georgia, whatever happens there, and all of that trying to give us a big wrist -- risk-averse move. it does not sound like a fun outcome but that is not inconceivable. i would tread warily into the

start of next year. toa: kit staying with us talk about a tier four lockdown christmas and what that means as well as the weakening dollar. coming up, robert at 8:00. 6:00 in new york. ♪

lisa: -- ritika: this is "bloomberg

surveillance." low yieldsn of how are pressuring funds. fidelity has weighed fees and expenses for its largest funds without the waivers invested into hundred trillion -- $200 billion that it would have faced negative yields on its holding. by class has been hit action lawsuit. it was accused of failing to inform clients it was selling stock orders to other companies. back set to be charging door commission fees. to similarset -- allegations from the ftc. digital payment company square is hopeful about buying jay-z's music streaming service. it would be part of its push to diversify. jack dorsey has discussed a professional -- have discussed a deal. the talks may not result in a

transaction. that is your latest. lisa: nothing going on much in markets. equities are trying to creep higher. 2/10 of a percent gain. it is a weaker dollar and that seems to be on the heels of euro strength. was just headline that had on fidelity providing cover for a low yields on money market funds is a next year headline. lisa: it is why most companies are moving away from money market funds. tom: coming up, robert. this is bloomberg. ♪

lisa: this is "bloomberg surveillance" live.

ofare looking at pictures the coast of the united kingdom. we are looking at pictures of dover, the ports were reopened after being shot down by france on fear of the new strain of covid. is 50he chunnel kilometers and i will call it dirty miles underneath and it is absolutely vile -- vital. what a joy to speak about the dover report. the basic message i heard is that when we go, we go, and i believe the going is going right now. i heard is going, and reports about log jams about drivers getting tested. you have the united kingdom still in tier four lockdown if you go to london where kit is sitting in his bathrobe and waiting for christmas and santa drop some dollar weakness.

kit is still with us. what is -- what is tier four christmas like? kit: it depends on where you are. if you are planning to go somewhere else, you are trying to find something to celebrate with at home having not been prepared. if you were expecting other people to come and see you you'll spend christmas eating far more than what is good for you. because you have enough for twice as many people in your house, but at least we should be positive about something, it is cold but sunny and is supposed to be tomorrow, so i'm going to barbecue tomorrow. lisa: good luck to you, share with some friends. there is a question of whether people will continue to get what they want in terms of currency trades. how about that for a segway. the dominant trade being weakening dollar. how much further doesn't have to go as we see negative real yields reassert themselves in a

major way? kit: i think we have done half the move. 10%dollar is a little over undervalued from now in terms of where it is overall. we will get more of it. if we can have what we wish for, i would wish for a v-shaped global economic recovery where money flows out to the countries that have had a hard time and capital flows to emerging market countries. if they continue to struggle, and the danger is that they will, the dollar can only fall more slowly. there is only so far the euro can rise if a lot of its trading partners do not see their currency appreciate. the chinese can help out by money. their and arsenalarsenal, is under threat if they lose that game. one of the trials of resiliency

has been premier league football. to me it has been extraordinary how they pulled that off as well, and it speaks to the resiliency out there. you perceive society will spring back? when we finally get vaccinated. think the rebound will be incredibly quick. the scarring that we saw after 2008 when we had to rebuild of financial systems to be safer and when we had a lot of lost jobs took a long time and we still got negative about it, and that is what you expect. this time is different. like aarring, we are coiled spring, frankly. let us lose and we will go forth, and the vaccines, as fast as they get there, will do that. see the underpinning as the recovery of trade

volumes? kit: trade in goods has been remarkably healthy for this pandemic. the chinese have been big beneficiaries, but we have set it home buying stuff online like loons. retail sales on both sides of the atlantic have been stronger than you have expected. i think the big beneficiary will be things like tourism. there are people who are longing to go away from the countries they are in when it is safe to do so. you hear that, and go out, go to the theater, and it is great. i had tickets for one game of football and then we went into tier four, so i would like to go and see games myself. all of that, we will get back to doing very fast around the world. tom: a christmas eve to you. has been a generale

benefit to surveillance through this year. we have been showing images of dover, and the port, a huge ferry business, and huge trucks and tunnels as well, but there are also the white cliffs. we forget the grandeur of the key of england. lisa: this is as close as we get to traveling in our pandemic world. we will show every picture that we can. notre looking at a -- it is quite moving yet, although it has been. active channel of trade re-engaging on the pandemic concerns. tom: the confidence that we heard from mr. banister is remarkable. we may hear some of that confidence. there is confusion on whether the prime minister will hold a press conference. it was scheduled earlier and unscheduled right now, but our team is monitoring the if and when we will hear from the various parties of this historic day for brexit. futures up 10.

80 one.res up shortened trading in the united states today. with the first world news is ritika gupta. ritika: republicans are likely to block the bid for $2000 relief checks according to a person who took part in a phone call for republicans. pelosi took up president trump's demand for larger payments to individuals in the coronavirus police act. she wants to seek unanimous consent to increase the payments, but all it takes is one more to stop that. president trump has vetoed the u.s. defense policy bill. that set off a battle in congress that could result in his first override by lawmakers. the president called the measure a gift to china and russia and he wanted to attach an unrelated privilege and to eliminate the law that protects that protects tech companies from liability for most tech content published by users.

calling for ap is special counsel to investigate election fraud. the latest demand came on william barr's last day in office. does not the evidence merit a special counsel. now the pressure will go on jeffrey rosen. the u.s. leads the world when it comes to the number of people receiving the vaccine. more than 1.1 million doses have been given in the first 10 days. three states have vaccinated more than 1% of their population. north dakota, west virginia, and alaska. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. it is a story that we have been a little bit tilted away from as we look at the financial markets and what we see in the global trade system, and that is that the president and his actions over than the last number of

days including pardons and commutations. with us is someone who is truly expert at this at the london school of economics. and a legend at the university of texas. we are thrilled that he will join us. futures up 10. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. coming up later, the senior scholar at the johns hopkins center for health at 6:30 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. tom: good morning, "bloomberg surveillance." and we welcome all of you around the world. excitement in europe over a possible solution to brexit. lisa and i looking for a press conference and some images

beginning to form at 10 downing street. really unsure on the timing on this. no doubt, getting the comments right will be important. joining us from the london school of economics, there professor of international relations, who is truly expert on the fabric of american democracy with his work at the university of texas. generated twoton pardons for the whiskey rebellion. we have now come to something very different. how does president-elect biden and future presidents adapt to what we have seen from president trump? prof. trubowitz: they are going to have to change the way the pardon power is being used. use the, presidents pardon power to write wrongs -- right wrongs, and correct miscarriages of justice and that

is not what is going on. most of those that trump is pardoning have a personal or political connection to the president. issued fewers pardons than past presidents, but what is noticeable about it is that the pardons are really toward -- he's granting them this islose allies, and something that the biden administration and congress is going to have to focus on. there might have to be a constitutional amendment and i think that will be hard to get through, but there has got to be some focus on the norms that have really been trampled on. tom: how do we do that within our democracy and the huge gridlock in the battles over each issue? is it a formation of a special committee by special -- by president-elect biden to study this for x-number of years? prof. trubowitz: why not?

but over several months. if he were to push something like that, it would tie his own hands as well and it would be more credible at any rate, and something that he might be able to push through congress. i think a lot will depend on what happens on january 5. if biden i think that were to push something, some set of proposals that he had to live by, it makes it more credible. i think everybody realizes that what is going ryan -- going on right now is beyond the pale. the: there is a question of isolation of the current president, not only in general, from the democrats and congress, but republican leadership, as he vetoed the defense bill and is threatening to veto the fiscal support package that we had passed by senate and house earlier this week. what does that tell you, how

significant is the fisher between president trump and the republican leadership? prof. trubowitz: i think it is significant. puts a lot of republicans in a pickle. the view on the defense bill certainly does that, because they are facing that if they override the president and join override them,nd a tweet storm for sure. if we do not override them, they are voting against a pay increase for the military which is too much for most of them. so there is going to be in override. the thing is is that what they are worried about proximately are the implications of trump's actions for the special election taking place in georgia on january 5. look at those two republican senators. loeffler,d perdue, --

and perdue, they have backed the relief built to see trump savage it. they are forced in a position where they might have to eat their own words in public, and the democratic candidates are having a field day with this. that i love how 2020 comment was, that republican leaders face a tweet storm and how this is a viable threat. there is a question of president trump's power among voters. our voters in georgia going to the polls to vote for trump's republican party or a republican party independent of the president? prof. trubowitz: yes, this is a great question and it is kind of like the outstanding question. i am not saying that i think that trump will definitely veto the covid relief bill. i think what he is doing right now is what he has been doing since day one of his presidency.

which is flooding the news cycle with so many stories and controversies that the issue that he is most worried about, which i think is scrutiny of the pardons, does not get the attention that it warrants. but, you know what this does is -- it kindublicans of whipsaws them and it shows his strength cool -- post trump presidency. tom: 13 years ago you wrote a definitive article about the grand strategy of america. we will hearken back to the whigs of 1840. with the republican party into the 2024 election, do they threaten to be modern-day whigs? prof. trubowitz: look, i think joe biden will have his hands

full, even if the democrats pick up the two seeds in georgia, which is a long shot. so, they control the senate. that is because the country is still so polarized and -- and political sectors, and it has really taken hold. you know, it is going to be very hard on the floor on the policy front to do programmatic things. focus is going to be domestic, principally, and many of his foreign policy positions will be judged by what they do for the country domestically, and what kind of dividends they pay. tom: thank you so much. we thank you for all that you have done for us. washingtonater, the conversation, we drive it forward and we have not talked a lot about hacking. david westin and conversation with christopher painter.

and on cybersecurity, an important interview. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: "bloomberg surveillance," good morning everyone. we are thrilled you are with us. futures up 10 and 81. sterling, 1.3612. anthony fauci, the man of the year with his leadership in the crucible of this pandemic has been extraordinary. from saint regis high school in the upper side to holy cross, and then his sterling career in medicine and virology and comforting a nation. his conversation with david westin. auci: for at least five or six hours i did not feel anything at all. then, late afternoon and early evening i started to get a little bit of an ache, nothing to distract or bother me, something that when i press on it you can feel it, i had a good

night sleep last night and i did not get a lot of muscle aches. i felt something a little different like there was something going on, maybe a little warm and flushed. woke up this morning and i feel fine. the only thing that i have now is that where the injection site is is a little sore. when i say sore, not very distractingly sore. just baseline and borderline. david: if there are side effects, how quickly will they kick in? dr. fauci: usually within the first 12 hours in a last between 24 and at most 36 hours. it is extremely unusual for someone to have something beyond 36 to 48 hours. david: you said getting your and chelation, you are a physician and treating patient -- you are a physician and you are treating patients, and he wanted to show the people that there was nothing to worry about. do you think there is resistance

in the vaccination program? dr. fauci: it is getting better. when we did surveys a month or so, almost 50% had reservations or skepticism about getting vaccinated. the last survey, last week, they said that more than 65% of the people said they would be willing to get the vaccine. we really want to get that up even higher than that because the projection is that if you get anywhere between 70 and 85% of the population vaccinated you would create an umbrella of immunity over the community, which could really get the level of virus so low that it would not be a threat, and you could answer the question that everyone seems to be asking appropriately, when can we start approaching every -- some degree of normality, when can we be doing things like safely having children in school, or going to

the restaurant and sitting indoors, or going to a movie theater. i would think if we start getting the general population vaccinated, let us say mid april, between now and then, we are going through the various priorities. we started off, health care providers, people in nursing homes, and long-term facilities. the second level is people over 75 and individuals in necessary societytant places in to keep society running, and that can be anything from a police officer, to a fireman, to someone who runs a grocery store. when you get through those priorities and you get to open season, like anyone can get the vaccination, even though you are not a priority group, i imagine it will be sometime in april, and then if we can really get vaccines going, in april, may,

june, july, and august. by the time we get the end of the summer we can get to the goal of getting the overwhelming majority of the population vaccinated. tom: we should be running out on the hour at bloomberg worldwide, that was beautifully clear. to me, the data you need to know from the good gentleman from holy cross is that he got a good night sleep last night, something that you and i have not seen for weeks. lisa: maybe i can get a good night sleep after somebody sticks me in the arm with a needle. i know at some point i can get back on an airplane. the data.ty is on futures up nine. the vix comes in 22.44. i will let you warble on about the carol of town-sterling. lisa: i do not know if i can meet your expectations. we are seeing pound strength

after signs that they will sign a brexit deal avoiding the worst case scenario. there is a question of how much this is coming on a weaker dollar story. year withing the futures climbing a little bit more up a quarter of her percent and yields ticking up a little bit. and looking at the markets, the beauty of southern england, one of the truly historic pivot points of western civilization. toer and the path down london through canterbury, kent, and through the tunnel built in the 80's and 90's and the need to get transportation moving. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this morning, it is the

gift that keeps on giving. president trump overrides courts, juries, prosecutors, and grants clemency to loyalists. sasse of nebraska says "this is rotten to the core." for the first time in 53 years, a president vetoes defense spending bill. congress must override the veto. and it is christmas eve amid the pendant partition. there's no relief -- the pandemic partition. there's no relief on stimulus come up there is news on brexit. we await the prime minister of the united kingdom and ms. von der leyen in brussels. good morning. i'm tom keene, alongside lisa abramowicz. it has been a story j