finally signing the virus relief bill. a government shutdown has been avoided as well. by waiting until sunday night, the president basically depriving around 14 million americans of one week of unlimited aid. that is a big deal -- one week of unemployment aid. that is a big deal. the u.k. government is expected to approve the astrazeneca oxford vaccine within days. alibaba shares sinking as chinese authorities tell ant group to shrink its business model. is the whole chinese tech sector now at risk? this is bloomberg surveillance. i am in for francine lacqua and tom keene, both of whom have a day off. let's check the headlines you need to know about. here is "first word news," with

ritika gupta. ritika: president trump signed the 900. -- nine hundred billion dollar relief bill passed by congress. the president is still calling for a vote to increase the $600 check to $2000. that nonbinding request is likely to pass. the u.k. and the eu have finally signed a post-brexit trade deal. prime minister boris johnson admits it does not go as far as he wanted on financial services. there is still little clarity on so-called equivalence that allows non-eu firms to sell services into the eu single market. the internet empire of billionaire jack ma has faced increase pressure from china, telling ant group to go back to its roots as a provider of payment services. -- creating timeline to

overhaul. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy? guy: ritika, thank you very much. let's talk about the markets this monday morning. london is closed for a national holiday. --ht volume in europe on the as a result of that. we are seeing a weaker dollar, though it is starting to come off of the lows. we are seeing the pound under pressure. we are seeing we in sterling on the table rate. we are watching what is happening with the oil market. highs.session

we are seeing a brexit affect early, industrial sectors benefiting. u.s. futures positive as well, up by around 7/10 of 1%. the bitcoin story continues. hit 30,000? to we'll keep an eye on what is happening. breaking news from the european banking sector. we will talk more about that later on today. commerzbank confirming they will eurosn extra 610 million in restructuring provisions, as it slims down the bank, a huge impact on the retail side of that institution as it basically tries to cut its way to growth. we are going to be talking politics later on in the show. huge moves late sunday with the

president signing the bill. sharyn o'halloran, columbia university of political economics, joining us for the conversation. , 11:30m. in new york a.m. here in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ are you frustrated with your weight and health? it's time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. (announcer) aerotrainer's ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. do the aerotrainer super crunch. the pre-stretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core.

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>> no matter what, the u.k.'s relationship with the eu is changing.

europe's freedom of movement will no longer apply in 2021. you will need six months on your passport and will only be able to stay for 90 out of 180 days. there withdrawal agreement protects the rights of those already abroad but they will be new residency requirements for the new year. goods trade will see more friction. you will need the right paperwork to even get close to some u.k. ports. to avoid chaos, the u.k. is giving importers a six-month grace period but the,. suit --t following grace period. but the eu is not following suit.

guy: anna edwards, looking at four freedoms the u.k. is no longer a part of. they are going to change but we don't know how much they are going to change. we will have to see, now that the u.k. has left the eu single markets. brexit in theory for the time being is done. that is one political issue that is off of the table. the other one is the president signing the relief bill late sunday. that is another risk that has been taken off the table as well. in terms of what that means for markets, let's figure that out. hugo rogers, joining us now. hugo, thank you for joining us. for the moment, we have seen two big factors in terms of political will -- political risk

removed from the market, but there is likely to be significant political volatility in 2021. how big a discount do you think we need to apply and where do you see the challenges coming from? hugo: the obvious risk is the georgia state election. if there is a sweet, if biden actually does get his majority, which is the 50 plus one with the vice president, then you have a completely different political and economic landscape, an opportunity for democrats to bring in significant stimulus and changes in the tax code as well. the very first political risk is georgia. ofn you have the slow reveal biden's political agenda, regardless of that outcome. those are the two first risks. beyond that, i think the most

important political risk is brexit. we can talk about that if you have time. the struggle between china and the u.s. is going to continue. phased multiyear skirmishes followed by significant differences of worldview, which we are going to see over a number of years. got the angela merkel era coming to an end. in the need to factor impact of vaccines and the differing speeds at which they are all going to work. there is a lot to talk about and things to think about, as we go into 2021. i have a vix of 21.74 right now. going to bes something that investors are going to have to deal with, throughout 2021.

what strategies do you think are going to work best in a more volatile environment? in a higher vix environment? that presupposes the vix is going to stay elevated. , theree raise a vaccine is a distinct policy -- possibility that the policies might subside over the course of 2021. ist we always discuss revival equals rotation. the value over a multiyear period has been sub -- has been so substantial. we can get some kind of cyclical recovery and while we are in this goldilocks period were you not only have the potential of a growth recovery and stimulus from both central banks and from governments, you can get into a

situation where you are getting waves of rotation and cyclical recovery, and that could see the fall.fall -- the vix where could rise is if that whole set up unleashes the inflation beast we have been talking about. it is not something we are worried about yet. low volatility is correlated with low interest rates. if interest rates start rising again, that could be your next bounce in volatility. watch out for that inflation monster, if it gets released. we were to think, if see some kind of inflation, and it really depends on which kind of inflation we get, do you

sit on anyed would kind of steepening of the yield curve? we have yields just shy of 1% stateside on the 10 year. if that was 1.5%, do you think the fed would react? fed wants thethe steep yield curve. i think it was designed to effectively steepen the yield curve, so i think they would allow it up to 1.5% but they must at that point start to get very wary that the steepness is going to have some sort of tightening effect on financial conditions and unwind some of the good they have done over the last year. initially yes, they would live with it but if it steepen's too much, they might worry that you might have some problems and it

could stymie economic activity. guy: you talked about the fact that there are going to be deep waves of rotation back in the cyclicals into some of the value that has been created by the pandemic. think thosedo you investment decisions are going to be? do you think that everyone that has been beaten up is going to bounce back or that it doesn't really matter? you just cast a fairly wind and you will catch some gains? will you have to be significantly more selective, and if so, where? hugo: an excellent question. i think the way to frame that question is to understand what sort of risk appetite you have. if you are more prone to trading, then you can buy big swaths of value.

you can get rid of them quite quickly. it is not what we do at deltec. it is not what i advocate as a long-term investor. certainly we think you should be the high quality components of the value face. demand collapse in some industries like air travel, some leisure and retail as well, but we like companies that have very significant positions, very strong brands, unique asset values. obviouslylike, and the big piece, the traditional value analysis fails to capture some of the assets that are there. stocksselect your value

with that quality lend applied, you can pick up long-term holdings at good valuations, and we think they will benefit as much as the more beat up things, but then you can be looking to buy and hold, rather than trading in and out. we would suggest reimagining value. factor, a high quality intangible assets, unique rand positions and market positions, -- unique brand positions and market positions. revival leads to rotation. differentiated are you going to have to be, geographically in this movement? as you start your soft screening, are going to see those emerging earlier on the atlantic or the other?

i am wondering if vaccine rollout is going to be a factor. you say this is a return to cyclicality. if europe is significantly behind the united states in terms of its ability to roll out the vaccine, do you think it is going to have an impact in terms of the stocks you want to be selecting? hugo: another excellent question. you have seen the differential performances between different geographies and how they have help -- how they have dealt with the pandemic and how that has led to different economic performances. some of the performances underlying asset-backed -- asset markets. global trade has recovered very quickly, so companies sensitive to global trade have been some of the best places to be.

callers of the emerging markets have been recovering much more quickly. these areas have recovered very quickly. you can assume that with a effect rollout and the that that has on economic activity, you are going to see the same kind of differentiation between different geographies. you can say that the u.s. has bad in terms of people who have been infected and died, but economic activity has been much more consistent and has not fallen as far. now, under pressure a lot but as you point out, europe domestic activity is still really an indulgence and we are in the middle of a double-dip in

terms of european domestic activity. that is why we differentiate looking at banks. to europeans. banks banks, because we think the loan losses have been recognized in the states and now you are into a world where you are potentially going to see a more rapid recovery in terms of growth. that contrasts with european banks, but then the european , sostrials have more export they benefit from trade so even with geographies, you have to be selective but your points about the difference between geographies is well-made and there is going to be significant difference in the exit as there has been through the pandemic itself. guy: what we have seen consistently around the world, less for china is a huge monetary push. i read in your notes, talking

about maximum monetization, and liking things like bitcoin and gold. we touched $28,000. how much more? hugo: that is the $500 billion question. we started with the thesis of maximum monetization. we've had a lot of gold and alternatives for a couple years. a very large position in bitcoin that has worked out incredibly well. how much further can this go? fed is still buying $120 billion a month. there is still a huge wave of monetary stimulus coming through the ecb. monetization is still going on. legs ifsay it has lost we get the kind of recovery we

are talking about next year, but still, the unemployment cap is too high. fiat currencies is going to continue. the analogy is an elephant trying to get into a crowded room through a narrow doorway. investors trying to get into this alternative non-fiat store of wealth. as they try and get in, they move the market every single time. a $50 million allocation from a large institution as they diversify for alternative positions, it caps on market up and we think it will continue a lot further, despite the huge rally we have seen. the actual number is difficult to define but having broken high, itts previous can go a lot further and we are

holding big positions in that alternative asset. guy: $30,000 looks like it could be on the horizon. we will see whether or not that happens or rather -- or whether regulators will put some cold water on it. thank you very much, hugo, deltec chief strategist. stick around. we will have a conversation about where yields are going next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: a national holiday in the united kingdom. nevertheless, we are seeing a bit. the brexit deal is done, we have the stimulus deal signed in the united states, both of those are sniffing and factors in driving the equity markets higher. we see. the pound coming down up next, we talk more about that brexit deal. robin niblett is going to be talking about that deal. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance.

i am guy johnson in london. tom keene and francine lacqua both have a well-deserved day off. the brexit deal is raising many questions across the board. after four years of negotiations, leaders announced the agreement on christmas eve, but the deal leaves some if not many major issues still up in the air. joining us now to discuss where we go from here, robin niblett, chatham house director. good morning. the british pound is trading at session lows. the market seems relatively unimpressed. what is your assessment? think the markets are reflecting the reality of this deal. it was always going to be a bare-bones skinny deal. thes remarkable because of size of the economic relationship and the $700 billion in bilateral trade agreements, it is huge in terms

a the relationship, but it is -- they made their economic relationship less effective. hard to find positive news about this once you start chipping away. you are breaking up, so let me jump in with a question. when we look at what happens next, is this going to be a permanent brexit negotiation that we are going to find ourselves in? everything is going to continue to be negotiated on a ongoing nation -- ongoing basis? the two areas where this is apparent straightaway, fisheries where we have a standstill, but they are beginning to get to annual

negotiations, so that would be a constant area of tension. more immediately, financial services, where the eu has said we are not quite ready to grant equivalents to u.k. financial regulators. the bulk of financial services are not going to be able to be treated in an effective way between the eu and the u.k. standards that the u.k. are implying, -- are applying, you have constant negotiations and that is every time the eu increases regulations on environmental's standards or farm products, they will have to check with the u.k. , is this good or not and if not, it will impose some kind of disadvantaged eu producers and the eu could apply or to supply favorable trade -- or disapply favorable trade. this is going to be endless negotiations for the foreseeable

future. getsrobin, as politics taken out and the discussion becomes more technocratic, do you think this will become easier to do or will this remain a high-energy political story in the u.k.? well: a lot depends on how britain is doing. i know that is a weird thing to say but let's say the johnson government strategy is working and it starts to come out of the leavecrisis, then it can the eu negotiations to go in a more technical bureaucratic annual process, but the danger is whenever things go wrong, an external enemy or problem, historically, especially the conservative party has always seen brussels in the eu as part of the problem.

any negotiation getting , budget negotiations for example, could flareup. the british press is always looking for those dastardly europeans over the channel as an excuse. more of a be plain-vanilla process but in reality, the politics will rear its head at awkward moments in the calendar. what were the objectives from the european union -- one of the objectives from the european union side was to make -- that life would be more difficult on the outside. that must be an ongoing process. again, is that going to make these negotiations more difficult that will increase the political element within them? robin: i don't think, for the moment. the assumption is going to be that given that we now just have

a plane trade area -- plain trade area, it might be zero tariffs or quotas, but you will have new regulations that need to be approved on an almost product byproduct basis and constantly being reviewed. willssumption is the u.k. no longer be quite as attractive as an offshore location for exporting. i think the eu feels that the impact, the negative impact is likely to reveal itself for the next two to three years. the u.k. government hopes to show they can be more dynamic outside the eu, and more attractive to foreign investment. until we start to see how those stories play out in the next two or three years, both sides will keep their powder dry. guy: one of the ways in which that might happen would be to see further trade deals being done by the u.k. around the world.

the key would be the united states. what are your assessments of the likely timeline to get such a trade deal done? tough one. is a very we know that a deal with the u.k. is unlikely to be as much of a priority as it would have been for donald trump. the bite into administration is not in a hurry to do this -- the biden administration is not in a hurry to do this. johnson is not going to be in a hurry to do it if it means having to make concessions on u.s. agriculture, who would look like it was undercutting some of the high standards of animal welfare that the british public like to believe they are part of, and genetically modified organisms, these issues are highly toxic, politically relevant in the united kingdom. the u.k. has its hands full trying to finish up the last few

deals it had as part of its e.u. membership. then they want to look for some smaller deals it can strike. australia, for example. some countries where it could test its teeth, including on agriculture with a smaller country that has less leverage over it. i think both can afford to wait for a year or two. britain is exhausted and its negotiators are exhausted after this huge deal with the eu. better to take a breather and let the biden administration check itself in and then worry about this in a year or two. that would be my guess. guy: i think we are all exhausted by this whole process. a well-deserved holiday. thank you for joining us on it, robin niblett, chatham house director. let's check in on the headlines that you need to know, with the "first word news." here is ritika gupta. tom: united -- ritika: the

united kingdom and the eu have finally signed a deal. johnson admits it is not as far as he wants to go on financial services. little clarity on so-called equivalents which allows the u.k. to participate in the eu single market. bloomberg sources say regulators could clear the astrazeneca shots for use early this week. it could be rolled out from january the fourth. the u.k. has already vaccinated over 600,000 people using the vaccine from pfizer and biontech. the european union has begun a coordinated vaccination campaign, less than a week after clearing the shots by pfizer and biotic -- and by on tech. -- pfizer and biontech. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by

bloomberg, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy? guy: thank you very much. columbiahalloran, university professor of political economics will join us. that is all coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg surveillance. i am ritika gupta. coming up, master class senior advisor. this is bloomberg. guy: this is bloomberg surveillance. monday morning, i am guy johnson. francine lacqua and tom keene both have a well-deserved day off. let's talk about what is happening stateside. particularly, the president's

decision late last night to sign the nine hundred 9 -- $900 billion relief bill that reverses a government shutdown as well. this will have meaningful impact in a number of areas. buteconomy will benefit, there has been a delay so there will be a drag. we have to look at what is happening with the georgia runoff as well. sharyn o'halloran, columbia university professor of political a comp -- political economy is joining us now. the president finally signing the relief bill late last night. we do have a delay that will cause around 14 million americans do not get a week's worth of extra on the limit benefits -- extra unemployment benefits. we now finally have this behind us. what will it do in terms of the impact it is going to have on the u.s. economy? what effect is it going to have on u.s. politics? we basically have a relatively straightforward transition into the -- into the biden

administration. little highoran: a drama from trump as he goes out. what we also see is this is good news for a lot of individuals because of the $600 checks they are going to get. even though there is going to be a break. for all of that, this is positive. hass a large package, that lots of things involved in it, that some are very relevant, helping middle or working-class americans. others are perhaps less directly hitting people, but there is going to be relief for rentals and the paycheck protection those are going to have a direct impact on making

sure that people can make it through to the next couple of months. guy: the big effect i wonder about is whether or not we are going to see an impact in the georgia runoff. it is so pivotal to how the next wer years will turn out, if see the democrats winning, it would take the gloves off of the biden administration side. a big meaningful effect in terms of the way the green agenda is likely to be rolled out as well. do you see any impact of what happened over the last few days, into georgia and what is your assessment of what is happening there? prof. o'halloran: my assessment is it is very close and it will be hard to predict that one. in any case, we will have a divided government or very close to a divided government, so getting anything done will be difficult for the biden

administration. we will not get to have sweeping overhauls of the tax program or the green agenda, so everything is going to be limited because you will have a divided government and the republicans will maintain control most likely. ways, it is not onng to have a direct impact changing the vote in georgia. you are a trade specialist, so let's talk about that. what are you expecting in terms of the trade agenda from the biden administration? we have been talking about the brexit deal and how tricky it has been to get it done. what is your assessment of what the biden administration is going to deliver on this front? prof. o'halloran: the biden administration will face a divided government, and i think this is going to make passing

any trade agenda difficult. expectingaren't anything much different than what we have seen from trump, and it is interesting because in --y ways, i think where we will see movement is perhaps in some of the areas that were contentious with some of our more prominent trade partners such as japan and europe and issues around national security, steel and aluminum. beould not expect there to in a very big new trade agendas -- new trade agreements being negotiated and in the first couple of years -- negotiated in the first couple of years. discussions about u.k., but they will be a top purity and maybe some of the asian

issues, so i think those of the areas but what is most likely to change is going to be the approach to trade, and that is instead of using the unilateral domestic laws retaliation types of loss, using a multilateral trumpch, something absolutely refused to do. sharyn, we appreciate your time. sharyn o'halloran, columbia university professor. -- ist, talking about going to be joining us as we continue to roll out the vaccine on both sides of the atlantic. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: welcome back. this is bloomberg surveillance. i am guy johnson, in for both

francine lacqua and tom keene who both have a day off. whole phase, bloomberg has developed a unique partnership with a leading authority on covid-19, johns hopkins, at the forefront of the national response. every day, we bring you insight from experts in public health, and emergency preparedness as a result. joining us now is the johns hopkins university bloomberg school of public health vice dean. good morning and thank you for your time. can you give me your assessment on how the vaccine rollout has been proceeding stateside? >> i think it has been proceeding pretty well. coming out of the fda advisory committee meetings and authorization, people had a pretty good sense of what the vaccine is. we are seeing a lot of vaccinations and increasingly at nursing homes around the country, without any real

surprises or allergic reactions that are not entirely surprising. but no major problems and people are still excited to get the vaccine and increasingly at nursing homes, but i think it is going to get more difficult soon. guy: why? sharfstein: once we go beyond -- and hopefully some of the community health providers nearby or a nursing home where there is a partnership with pharmacies, they were only summoning nursing homes. it is a lot harder to figure out where to vaccinate and how to find people at the highest risk. older adults live in homes, they live in assisted living and senior housing, and as you get to essential front line workers, they work everywhere. how to actually set up

vaccination in a way that they feel comfortable going, that they can really access despite working jobs. veryf that requires a strong public health system, and we just got the funding yesterday for vaccine distribution in this country. i think there are going to be hiccups around the country. let's talk about some of the limitations and opportunities. the pfizer with there is accine, temperature storage factor, that you have to keep in mind. waiting and could potentially get clearance this week for the astrazeneca vaccine in the united kingdom, and we vaccineing at the j&j

clearance early next year. vaccine is a single shot and the astrazeneca vaccine can be stored at much higher temperatures. had -- how big a shift is that going to provide in terms of this rollout process? dr. sharfstein: i think authorization of more vaccines is going to help with supply, because they will just be more vaccine around. as you mentioned, it is easier to move around. pfizer requires a huge batch to be defrosted at the same time, which is hard for a small clinic to handle. i think it is still going to leave the actual mechanics of setting up vaccine clinics and figuring out where to put the vaccine, trying to reach hard-to-reach communities, i think it is going to help with part of the problem, but not the whole problem. we are going to have to see that investment in the public health system really pays off.

we will have to figure out a way to push vaccines to communities that need it. staffing, talk about and also the interaction between what is happening on the ground at the moment, with the surge in the case counts we are seeing around the world, and also the staffing to be able to deliver the vaccine. is it a zero-sum game. is it that we are dealing with more virus cases with less vaccines to vaccinate people? is there an issue with staffing? dr. sharfstein: certainly it is, in a lot of places. it may not perfectly be a zero-sum game, but there is a lot of competition. the health care system does step in to lend a hand when you have major projects like vaccination, but the health care spit -- the health care system is spilling over in parts of our country right now.

similarly, the public health system tries to help out the health care system, through planning, through messaging and testing. it is the same staff. there is no extra staff for vaccinations. they have all been pulled to help with the response. guy: thank you for your time, dr. sharfstein, johns hopkins university bloomberg school of public health vice dean. markets are quite well. up next, we will carry on the conversation. more bloomberg surveillance. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ federal banks are -- "central banks no sign -- central are showing no signs they want to stop. >> it will be v-shaped for some. it may not be v-shaped for others. >> next year is going to be too hot. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. >> from new york city and berlin , for audiences worldwide, a very good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio. i'm carol massar, alongside matt miller. jon ferro, tom keene, and lisa