>> central banks are showing no sign they want to take their foot off the gas. >> we still have momentum, but we are losing momentum at a creek will time. >> we are looking -- at a critical time. >> we are looking for a reboot, a restart and recover. that is the theme for next year. >> the post vaccine rebound is going to be incredibly v-shaped. some.will be v-shaped for it may not be v-shaped for others. >> i think it is going to be europe to out. -- europe too hot. >> this is "bloomberg

surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. oft: what an all-star cast investors and economists. unfortunately, the stars of this program, tom keene, jon ferro, and lisa abramowicz are off. carol massar and i here to keep you company on this monday morning. ryding there at the .nd with his santa claus cap on i think the most important comment is, and we're hearing a lot today about the v-shaped recovery, it is not going to be a v-shaped recovery for everybody. some people are going to see things bounce rate act. or some people, nothing ever changed. for some people, a short, sharp shock. carol: we talk about this over the past few months. a big majority of americans

didn't even have a few hundred dollars for a big bill that came up at some point. it is just a reminder of how on the edge so many americans unfortunately are living. it reminds us of the inequities that we are seeing in our economy. we talk about the k-shaped recovery come over so many have not felt necessarily the economic impact of covid, but there are so many that have. we talk about the fiscal cliff's so many are facing at the end of this year, whether they're going to be evicted, whether they can provide food for their families. these stimulus checks are crucial to many americans. having said that, we did finally get the president signing off on that the last night, so that has provided some optimism certainly in the trade today. s&p 500 futures pretty much staying at this level, as you can see. up about 26 points. but going, we just talked about

it with mike mcglone, another big story on this monday, up about 11 point 5%, above $27,000. that optimism all has to do with that stimulus and relief package. matt: it is interesting to see. i mean, you may not realize how powerful the u.s. stimulus is, but every time an issue like this arises, it affects global markets. we see a big rally here due to the package in washington. a lot of times, what comes out of d.c. has a bigger effect on european stocks than what comes out of brussels, certainly what comes out of the brexit debate. kevin cirilli joins us now to talk about the bill that was signed. it is a much smaller version of what many wanted months ago when this discussion first happened. and it does look like millions of people are still going to be unemployment

benefits will last for a while, right? kevin: for some republicans, it is too much money. for democrats, it is not enough. this is what the problem solvers caucus was able to yield. president trump urging for there to be $2000 stimulus checks, ultimately arriving at where the republican party is, that this is the best they can offer. president-elect joe biden has said this is just a down payment and that additional relief will be needed to conduct his first 100 days in office. he's going to be carefully looking at the georgia election runoff on january 5 to see how much republican support he would need from centrist republicans in the senate in order to try to get additional relief passed. carol: i wonder about the georgia senate runoffs, depending on the outcome, how crucial ultimately is that going to determine whether or not we get another round of relief.

kevin: carol, you know this better than anyone in terms of how every vote counts, especially on divisive issues. the republican party is very divided right now. look no further than larry p-ed on the bloomberg terminal, and president trump wanting additional funds. sayingry, larry kudlow on the bloomberg terminal that that additional funds would not be needed. the divide on full display. i bring that up because for the georgia runoff, senator susan collins admitted a willingness to work across the aisle on some divisive issues. but just how many votes are going to ultimately be needed? that is what we are waiting for to get more clarity on the runoff election. carol: kevin, the republicans lost some momentum as a result of president trump.

kevin: i think the republicans would look at the house and say they made significant gains in terms of the dynamic of the house of representatives, but no doubt, they lost the executive branch, and we are waiting for clarity and georgia. with a smart update, kevin cirilli in washington. kathy jones is charles schwab's chief fixed income strategist. of course, we are watching is more stimulus is pumped into the economy. what is the ultimate impact when it comes to fixed income? great to have you here with matt and myself. how do you see the stimulus package and what it does ultimately for the economy, for movies, and what it does for the fixed income trade? kathy: well, it helped fill a gap that continued to be open. when we this crisis, a huge output gap opened up. we've come about 0.6 of the way back -- 0.6% of the way back. that affects by and large the lowest income votes, so the

people who have the least cushion. now they have just seen some of away.ushion taken i think the fiscal aid is certainly buoying markets and raising optimism about the , and we are optimistic in terms of the second half of the year as well. we've beenimately hunting 10% in treasury yields. if we see inflation yields move , by the end of 2021 we could be close to the 0.5% area -- the 1.5% area. price-earnings ratios are

incredibly high, certainly in the u.s. the s&p is out almost 30 times .stimated earnings how does it work if we get extra stimulus? kathy: i think schwab and others are indicating that respected returns are going to be -- that expected returns are going to be lower. i think you have to have realistic expectations of where we are going. . but it is not an environment where i say let's move to cash the key is to be fairly selective. se -- we are saying keep the ration and move up in credit quality. there's still some yield to be

had, and the opportunity compounds those deals. carol: i'm looking at the piano behind. i'm not going to ask you to play. i do wonder if you are composing something, and you have to describe something for 2021, is it going to be more optimistic, but you've got to be patient, or is it a bit somber this year? kathy: i think it is going to start out on a more somber note. thinks aside, i economically speaking, it is going to start out on a much .our note and declines. we are always looking at this -- fortic scenario for a things that just glide in the way we want them to. i'm expecting a fairly tumultuous year coming. carol: thank you so much. happy new year.

coming up. check in with the stanford university professor of global health and infectious diseases. matt: you know, carol? carol: what did i do wrong? matt: i'm looking forward to that because i think one of the most important questions is going to be how quickly can vaccines get rolled out. you started there the u.s. already, and the u.k. has started already. the u.s. and the u.k., one of the big benefits of those two of --s is the lack whereas here in europe, there are benefits to living in germany as well. everybody has health care. it is difficult to get unemployed here. but things moved really slowly. ,e have to file paperwork

actual paper in triplicate, for everything we do. that is the kind of thing that holds the rollout of something back.his vaccine my question is, when we talk to the good -- how quickly can we get this done? if the u.s. gets vaccinated quite well and how well does -- germany holds back, what happens if i start spreading out there? these are the issues i really want to look into. carol:carol: in this whole process which you've got to -- we've talked about how you have to be patient. we talked about production and rollout. i was talking to the head of infectious diseases at northwell here in new york, a major health care system. what is interesting is he said, listen. to get a test, you've got watch a patient for 15 to 30 minutes to make sure there is no quick.n, so it is not so

the process is taking a longer time. tose are issues we need thing about. we will check in with the stanford university professor of global health and diseases on what she has to say about covid-19. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. has signed amp bill containing $900 billion in pandemic relief, backing down from demands lawmakers change the deal before he signed it. the government has been operating on temporary authority that expires after today. the two georgia runoff that will decide control of the u.s. senate begin their final stretch this week. president trump heads back to georgia to appear with a mourn a

dated purdue, and kelly loeffler. democratic candidate rafael worn after nine of the candidates capacity. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ if we can really get vaccines going in april, may,

june, july, and august, by the time we get to the summer, i think we can get to that goal of getting the overwhelming majority of the population vaccinated. matt: that is of course the famous dr. fauci, talking about the possibility of getting vaccines rolled out. he is saying hopefully by the end of the summer, we are going to be able to move about freely and maybe even mask free. let's take a look at the markets this morning because it is not just the vaccines that are having an optimistic effect. you had to brexit deal on christmas eve as well. most importantly for animal spirits and markets. , you had donald trump finally package and rescue the budget bill. that is going to extend unemployment benefits, extend

eviction protection, and it is going to spiked the punch just the way the market likes it, at least for now. the s&p futures are up zero point 7%. the euro stronger against the greenback as the dollar falls. treasury yields are rising as investors feel safe enough to sell the perceived safety of u.s. debt and nymex crude rising barrel.41 to $48.68 a carol: that measure signed by president trump certainly giving support to the market. let's go to our next guest and get an update on where we are when it comes to covid-19. maldonado it's with , head ofuniversity diseases and epidemiology. i think there's a little bit of a slow down potentially in data

because of the holiday weekend, but when you look at the virus headlines that are out there, over 4.4 million vaccines being distributed, but we continue to see cases rising in the united states and around the globe. i think the headlines are not expected it, and that is the increase as you just mentioned. we did unfortunately expect to see a rise around the world. in particular, what we are seeing in the united states, parts of europe, africa starting to see some increase is , iterning, but this virus is clear we will need the vaccine, so those are the big ones. is beingne distributive, and i think everyone can agree these are great products and everyone wants them as quickly as

possible. companies are doing the best they can to rollout in record time. i do: one of the things think, as we heard from dr. fauci coming into this segment, that he said he does expect if we get them out to people in april, may, june, july and august, by the time we get to the summer, maybe we get back to normal. the way the distribution is going and how logistics are working or not in terms of getting out a vaccine, do you think that is a realistic timeline, based on what you are seeing with your hospital? dr. maldonado: absolutely. i think the production, people are anxious and wanted to go fast, but i think we are moving at a decent pace. based on the transmission characteristics of this virus, i do think that the summer could be a good time to really start seeing a slowdown. not to say we won't see one before that, but by the end of as we see things go

right now. we should start seeing major reductions. we will learn for sure whether and distancing will be required over the coming year. i am guessing there will be some degree still required, but the reductions may be coming, given that there will be more immunity in the population. matt: the biggest question i think we have been hearing here in europe over the last week or mutations?about viruses mutate all the time. there raison like d'etre, anyway. will it still be controllable with vaccines?

is it likely that it mutates in a way that vaccines can no longer stop the spread? dr. maldonado: this is a tricky virus, and i think it really speaks to the way that virus organisms can really adapt to their surroundings. really hass virus adapted well to humans. the good news here is that the is so important to this virus attaching and replicating that it is a relatively simple way to develop .ommunity perhaps that is our downfall as won'tthat the virus mutate, but the variations that occur will be able to get around that immunity. it is a possibility. we know that it's not more

variable, and it may just be more likely to stick human cells and be able to affect them. but they platforms, especially ,he moderna and pfizer platform they look like they are flexible enough to adapt to mutations as they occur. the platforms look like they could be manipulated fairly quickly to adapt to any changes that could be coming. the companies are monitoring rigidly easyse are -- areat you could see regulating easily. matt: we want to get you back for more of this in the near future. dr. yvonne maldonado of stanford university, professor of global

health and infectious disease and epidemiology and population health. some of the -- she is probably one of the most important dinner guests you could have right now if you were allowed to have a dinner guest, right, carol? i don't know about you, but this is driving me crazy. i like to have big dinners with a lot of people and a lot of wine, and this is not happening. it doesn't look like it will happen in the foreseeable future. carol: even if we get most of the population vaccinated by the end of the summer, we were having a conversation at home. are you going to feel comfortable going to a dinner party? are you going to be comfortable --be going to a sort stadium a sports stadium? we don't know how long the stillty lasts, so that is so much we don't know when it comes to covid-19. matt: absolutely, and i've had

enough of these walks. all my friends went to grab a flask and go on a brisk walk. i guess something we have to deal with now. coming up, we talked to lindsay p aqsa -- to lindsey p when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store. i hope my insurance pays for it. can you tell me how much this will be? - [cashier] 67.

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>> this is bloomberg wrapped.

carol: this is bloomberg surveillance. carol massar and new york, matt miller in berlin. we are seeing risk on trade and some optimism because of the brexit deal, but largely because of president trump signing that pandemic relief will. you can see some support there in the s&p 500 futures, up about .7%. that has been the trade. the 10 year yield at .95. watching that when it comes to more stimulus. new york crude up, met. -- matt. matt: it does look like risk sentiment is up around the world this morning after president trump signed a bill containing $900 billion in pandemic relief.

that's definitely what moved markets here. avoids a also government shutdown. larry summers, former treasury secretary, spoke earlier on wall street week about a stimulus deal. larry: we are better off with stimulus than we are without. i don't think the $2000 checks make much sense. the real issue is going to be to sustain this expansion. 908think about it, the billion dollars stimulus bill, probably would payout $250 billion a month for the next three months. the level of compensation is running about $30 billion a month low what we would have expected it would. -- below what we would have expected. gdp is running lower. so it is quite an precedent i'm. we have stimulus already much

more than filling out a hole. given that lots of the hole is not that people do not want to spend, but they cannot spend, i don't necessarily think that the priority should be on promoting consumer spending beyond where we are now. i am not even sure i am so enthusiastic about the $600 checks. i think taken them to $2000 would actually be a pretty serious mistake that would risk a temporary overage. i would like to see more assistance to state and local governments. i would like to see more money put into testing. acceleratingt into vaccines, but, gosh, david, i think it would be a real mistake to be going to $2000.

carol: -- matt: that was former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers speaking to david westin on wall street week, saying he thinks $2000 is too much. it is interesting to hear democrats coming out and saying they don't think that americans should get $2000 stimulus checks. lindsey piegza, stifel chief economist talks about this. larry, secretary summers, wrote an op-ed for bloomberg explaining more. he said he thinks stimulus is necessary. more stimulus. oldhe used the anti-minimum-wage argument when it comes to stimulus checks, saying, if we are going to say 2000 is better than 600, why not do $10,000? what do you think? lindsey: this represents frustration we are seeing around the stimulus. for many, it stems from the fact that it has taken months to get

to this point. it is seen as smaller in scope than what was expected. there are pet projects in the legislation the issues itself. others are saying it does not matter how much direct relief we send out. it is about finding a long-term health solution. this was not a market crisis. this was a health crisis. so to have a long-term, sustainable path to recovery, we need a meaningful way to separate the healthy from the .ick, so there is not much further.t me push matt was mentioning, larry summers was, that $2000 stimulus check. he said total employee compensation is now running only

about $30 billion per month behind the pre-covid baseline. he talks about the congressional stimulus from this bill at about $150 billion a month to household income to replaced all of this lost. is he right? is he right and that we are putting too much into the economy when you are saying it is a health problem? unless we really give money that is targeted to getting that dealt with and stopped, is he right? lindsey: there certainly is validity to his argument. we look at replacing one's wages at 100%, in some cases and enhance benefits above 100%, you create a dense incentive for many of these workers to return. -- create a disincentive for many of these workers to return. we have heard in the restaurant industry that they are having difficulty reconnecting with workers as they try to reopen and some capacity -- reopen in some capacity, finding workers to fill those positions.

this is not a political statement or a judgment by any means, but if you are paid x to work,r x plus 20% to not most rational agents would choose the latter, so it is creating some disconnect. play devils advocate, there are millions facing eviction. i don't know how we make sure we are doing the right thing. i am wondering how you factor all of that into it. lindsey: we are talking about 10 million renting families that could be impacted by that eviction if it is not extended beyond this round of stimulus at the end of january. so it is a very delicate balance. we want to make sure that we encourage people to participate in the labor market. on the other hand, we want to make sure we support businesses and workers that have lost income through new fault of their own but by the government's design.

it is a delicate balance, but it does not come down to long-term sustainability via government funding or support. it has to come from health solutions. that is where the majority of our focus, the funding, should be driven, in my opinion. do you expect from a biden administration? it will not be too many weeks now until president biden gets into office. there is a possibility, depending on what happens in georgia, that he even has control of the congress and the senate as well. so what are you expecting from the democrats in 2021? lindsey: we will assume a balance of power in congress. we assume the republicans maintain control in the senate. that is going to remove a number of fringe agendas, from tax increases to medicare for all to the green nude deal, changes in -- to the green new deal, those

are all off the table for now, but the president will still have the power to to the needle. on apect him to focus sixth round of stimulus. we expect him to loosen the stance on immigration to a degree, so there are some moderate changes we would expect on some of these issues that you would otherwise prefer to have. it will be controlled by the fact that we have that presumed balance of power in congress. matt: so gridlock is good at least for markets. what do you think happens in terms of risk assets? i mean, we are living in an economy where you and your money to the government for no return -- you lend your money to the government for no return and at a 30 priceties earnings ratio. lindsey: the equity market seems

to be elated by the fact that we did reach a deal, a fifth-round stimulus package. at the market also seems to be getting a boost from brexit negotiations, which appear to have taken a step on the right direction. the equity market appears to be focused on everything but the fact that fundamentals in the economy appear to be moving momentum. matt: animal spirits, right? lindsey: right now, depending on the depth and duration of this resurgence and the policy measures put in place, we could see the first quarter to back into negative territory, yet you see little if any concern priced into the equity markets. -- gridlockbatch good for the market, but not necessarily for humans. i think about the first fed meeting of 2021. january 7, we will have a new administration. what do you think will be the kind of thing that jay powell has to do at that first meeting of the new year? lindsey: he will continue to

walk this line of highlighting the improvement we have seen in the economy, but continue to put pressure on the federal government, as we have seen him do, that the fed has passed the proverbial baton to the federal government to pass any stimulus needed. i expect powell to walk that line, but keep the pressure on the new administration. matt: it will be -- carol: it will be an interesting new year, no doubt. lindsey piegza joining us from chicago. now,roblem that persists yes, the pandemic relief plan provide some help, but we will still have these problems and it will hit the biden administration had on. matt: yeah. on the other hand -- and i know we keep going back to larry -- there op-ed piece is a lot about this recession

that is very different from the 2008 recession. he makes the point that, back then, consumers were putting everything on credit cards, deep in debt, nothing in there accounts, and retail spending dried up. now we are looking at a holiday season where retail season bounced 20% compared to last year. in 2008, it dropped 3.5%. so some things are very different, especially the average bank account. it is a different look this time than it was in 2008. carol: different. areorate balance sheets different and individual bank accounts. we have seen the numbers. savings are up dramatically, so it is different. as larry summers points out, and others have pointed out, people cannot go out and spend money. you cannot go to a restaurant. you cannot go to a store. it is a different environment. the retail numbers are definitely coming in better

than forecasted. that is something we will talk about. we will talk to the former saks ceo and mastercard advisor. we will see what he is saying specifically when it comes to this holiday season and the retail environment for 20 to anyone. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> president trump has signed a bill for $900 billion in pandemic relief. the legislation includes $1.4 trillion in government spending from federal agencies through the end of the fiscal year in september. the government had been operating on temporary spending authority that expires after today. germany's confirmed death toll in the coronavirus pandemic has topped already thousand. the number of confirmed covid-19 cases jumped by about 11,000 in the past 24 hours to 1.6 5

million. germany's death toll was relatively low in the first phase of the pandemic but the country has seen hundreds of deaths per day recently. a shutdown that includes the closure of schools and most shops is scheduled to remain in place until january 10, and will likely be extended. and a niche is banning all foreigners from visiting the country -- indonesia is banning all foreigners from visiting the country after learning of a new variant of the coronavirus. some high-level officials will be given exceptions. the two georgia runoffs that will decide control of the senate begin their final stretch. president trump heads back to georgia to appear with the two incumbents, david perdue and kelly loeffler, on the people of their runoff. pits those candidates against democrats rafael warnock and jon ossoff. global news 24 hours a day on

air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is a time to strike when the iron is hot and part of it,

i think, is not just relief. it is the since there is going to be a very positive market environment. was the jones day &a talking toof m bloomberg. coming up, alpha omega advisors jeannie, joins, us to talk. carol: it has been a hot year. ipo's, stocks. we have seen a fair amount of flow. it is crazy, and this year where we have seen so much volatility, and yet all of that performed off the charts. the interesting thing is -- i have been running the ma function a lot on the bloomberg, and you can look at

what is going on between dealns. you have got counts and volume of deals adding back to where it has been, but obviously, it has been a tough year. average premium on the other hand continues to climb. where you are really seeing that is asia, southeast asia especially. that's where investors want to go because they have got the virus under control there and that is the hot place to do big m&a deals with big price tags now. if you look at asian dealmaking, the average premium is off the charts. seeing --you are carol: seeing distressed dealmaking going into 2021. now, i want to talk about -- speaking of distress, we have seen that play out when it comes to retail. someone who knows retail so well is the former saks ceo,

mastercard's senior advisor. it is so great to have you here with us. it is holiday season, turning out to be ok. >> absolutely. i think it has been a healthy consumer environment. when you look at retail numbers, not just mastercard, it shows that from october 11 to december is up 3%ull season, it versus a year ago. if you asked me back in march whether there was a shot you would see growth like that, i would have said you are kidding. these numbers are essentially in line with what we saw in 2019. it is a healthy consumer. it is very different than we saw before. carol: let's talk about that. you, matt, and i were talking about everybody is kind of all in on the home right now. >> absolutely. you are nesting, not at work, fixing up your house, so

anything related to home furnishings, electronics, stay-at-home activities, groceries doing extremely well. apparel not doing well, department stores. 19%, youwhich declined still see strength in ath leisure. nobody is going to events, so they are not buying dresses and items like that. that will come back in time, but you have this gravitating toward the home. this digital environment, people are not going to stores. you are seeing big box retailers, which had been winning throughout this 's,ironment, home depot, lowe target, walmart doing extremely well, and that continue through the holiday season. and one thing that is fascinating is the strength in

the suburbs versus cities. people are not going into offices. it is also people that are not spending on commuting, eating on restaurants -- in restaurants. that leads dollars going towards items like home-improvement. inol: steve, how does this, terms of the patterns you are online,the increase in how much of that stays with us post pandemic in your view? we have been talking about online overtaking brick-and-mortar. we have a way to go when it comes to that, but i think there are people who have never ordered food online all of a sudden doing it for the first time. what changes dramatically potentially when it comes to retail post pandemic? steve: we have probably seen eight years of change in eight months. you have digital being about 20% of the total purchases. that means 80% is still being done in physical stores, so we storesnot be writing off

because stores are still critically important. a lot of the changes we are seeing are here to stay. the digitization of society. you will have working differently. people will have a mix of offices and at the home. that means they will have to be fixing up their homes on a continued basis. restaurants will come back. apparel welcome back. more importantly, some of the societal changes we have seen, the consumer -- edit used to be more -- and it used to be more customer, now it is everybody. social issues, what the brands stand for, those kinds of changes will stick with us.i also think the trend towards moving out of the cities -- right now, suburban sales are more stronger than urban areas. i don't think cities are going to die. that's for sure.

you have an enormous amounts of the cultural aspect of the cities, but some of these changes are going to be sticking with us. carol: what kind of retailer do you not want to be right now when you look at what is going to come in the next two to four years, let's say? steve: the ones you did not want to be where the distressed apparel retailers like neiman marcus, jcpenney, brooks brothers, j. crew, that have already gone bankrupt during the pandemic. linenk the end line -- in apparel retailers and malls are still distressed because malls are not where consumers are shopping. they are shopping and outdoor strip malls, but indoor shopping malls are slower to recover. that will be a difficult environment for some time to come. broadly, restaurants are still having a very difficult time. i am pleased to see that the bill gets signed last night, but

restaurants are in terrible condition. you will see a resurgence in restaurants in the post pandemic period, but you will also see a reset of rents. you will see real estate being different. of, ink at vacancy rates manhattan -- soho and madison avenue -- 30% or 40% vacancy rates. are already seeing that reset. just drive down the avenues in new york, you see those store shut down already. steve, thank you. have a great new year's. steve sadove joining us this monday. a quick check on the markets. optimism the trade throughout the morning. up about 28 points on the s&p 500. -- afterointing to that massive relief pandemic program being signed, but 94 on the 10 year.

we will check in with blank fitness's ceo coming up. we will talk about the fitness market. that industry saw a lot of changes in 2020. matt miller going to count you down to the open this monday. i am carol massar. this is bloomberg. ♪