>> good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. it is daybreak europe, and these are your top stories. u.s. futures push higher after a record close on wall street. representatives backed higher stimulus checks. coronavirus hospitalizations in the u.s. reached a new record high. deaths pasts

50,000. -- passed 50,000. and ant group is said to be folding financial operations into a holding company. softbank jumps. record after record across the equity markets, across the global equity markets. the highest since 1990. and global, nasdaq, equities. the stimulus bill has passed, and it passes over to the senate. it goes from $600 in the checks to $2000 stimulus checks. that would pump up disposable income by 25% above the pre-pandemic level. that would add 1.5% to u.s. growth. all of it not in 2021, but p hased in. that comes from the nonpartisan

budget office of budget for responsibility. that is not made up by anybody. [cougihing] excuse me. that is what is driving the narrative in the equity market. it was growth overvalued for the first time in four months. what does it do to your dollar trade, your oil trade? it's a weary consensus narrative. the dollar is lower this morning. there's nothing shocking in any of this. but what caught my eye, let's look at the dollar along with bitcoin and a number of the other assets. the dollar pain index, what a wonderful phrase, is at the most extremely bearish level since 2011. how do you dissector the dollar going into 2021? russian support adding more oil. this is inextricably linked to

the downward trajectory of the dollar. there's your bitcoin. we flashed through new rec aids -- new records at $20,000. -- at $28,000. bill forhas passed a stimulus bills of $2000. the bill now heads to the senate. joining me now from washington, john. great to have you in may. so what is the likelihood the senate will pass this $2000 check? john: actually pretty slim. slim to not existent. the republicans in the senate, who controlled the senate, had forcted it as a long time this next release package slowly

progressed. they wanted it to be much smaller. adamant were insistent, that the relief checks be no more than $600, which of course was passed, and which president trump signed on sunday. of reasons variety for this but at this point it seems highly unlikely that the $2000 checks will get through the senate. manus: ok. so that is a voice of sobriety coming through from the perhaps overly effusive pump up by markets. what is at stake for the republicans in the senate? date, the, the big next big political date in this country is january 5, which h there are two runoff races for

senate in georgia that will control -- determine control of the chamber. so, this has sort of complicated becausean's efforts, they are trying to project a bullwork against the democrats and joe biden, who is about to take office. but as you said, president trump has been behind this $2000, these $2000 checks, and this puts them in a bind. they are against it, he is for it, democrats are for it. and it puts the two senate candidates in a very uncomfortable position. as they are trying to win reelection. slim to no pickin's chance of $2000 checks coming to

anyone's mailbox anytime soon. that is our editor from washington, john harney. let's get to my guest. chief economist and macro strategist. thank you so much for joining me. we just had our washington editor contextualized slim to no chance of $2000 checks. but i want to counted forward. let's say it is a $600 check. stimulus willf you look for from the biden administration to the macro story? guest: good morning to you. i think there are two aspects here. one a short term. even though we should have a reopening economy from next spring, we should have accelerating economic activity, the winter months are likely to be tough because of the ongoing restrictions in the ongoing lockdown.

so if you were to look at the short-term stimulus, you would look for breach measures that support incomes, that help transition from an economy that is part lee closed one that will eventually reopen. over the longer term, i would look at infrastructure spending, i would look at much more fiscal stimulus of that kind than being investment across infrastructure, across digital. for a much more active role. manus: this goes to the heart of the issue. he clarified in his twitter statement recently, where he warned -- he said he is in favor of stimulus. but he is warning about the folly of misdirected stimulus. and that is his concern.

so what exactly are you going to be looking for? he is worried about overheating. could it add to the bubble narrative? larry said $2000 would be a mistake. incomes are not dying as much from the pre-covid level. that goes to the heart of it. would beo for $2000 it something like 25% above the pre-covid income level. could this kind of twist cause bubbles to manifest? the reality is that in the long run, we are all dead. but it's a short-term problem. the short-term problem is because of the economic shut down. this is the first ever recession by government decree. so even that kind of stimulus, fiscal transfers, that essentially cannot operate because of the shutdowns, these need to be stimulated and supported. but yes, over the longer-term,

one needs to redirect the stimulus. there is important cooperation. central banks look at interest rates vary lower, rock-bottom. such that governments everywhere, not just in the u.s., can borrow and spend to a greater extent than they had done in past cycles. that is what i think we will be looking for. yes, you can call it overstimulation perhaps, and that is something very important for economic recovery in risk assets as well. manus: maybe this place of the what it means. thebulls will ssay -- queen of charts for this together this morning along with the king of charts. if i look at a breakeven, they are at the highest level in 18 months. so we have this momentum that is

building in the inflation narrative. do you concur with that? do you inflation as a risk next year? is it driven more by commodities in the dollar than it is by real inflationary forces? daniele: first of all, taking a step back, i see a lot of inflation already. of a different kind. this is asset price inflation. why we have again very low nominal and real interest rates. discountrs the supplied to risk assets. and that is why you have all this market dynamics you mentioned. this is asset price inflation, first and foremost. of that is the byproduct what the policymakers are doing. the banks have already east policy to such an extent, they are now anchoring real rates at probablyw level, and

for such a long time. plus you have the fiscal boost. so assets are well supported. when you talk about consumer price inflation, they are a better yield right now. that does not mean we will not have a bounceback in inflation next year like the breakeven suggests. it's more like it has just started. it is not driven from wage growth. upause we have probably pent demand, and a restrictive supply, we will have a recovery like what we are seeing in commodity prices, u.s. dollar weakness. but it's more like a bounce. it is not a strong cycle of accelerating inflation. when it comes to prices, already in the system because of economic policies being put in place everywhere in the world. manus: how does that translate to asset exposure in your opinion? which is good inflation, and a supportive economy.

how does that manifest itself for you from the top of the macro strategy treat 2021? daniele: there are several things. one is assets geared towards seller rating growth will likely -- in 2021. this means smaller and more cyclical businesses. value stock which has been particularly hard-hit because of the shutdown. it means some of the trends we have seen already will likely continue. this is rising breakevens. it also means u.s. dollar weakness. it means generally in risk assets, particularly in the regions, the sectors, the investment styles and factors that have been depressed so much since covid-19. manus: stay with me. daniele antonucci, private bank chief economist and macro strategist argus this morning. coming up, the final stage files are set for another covid-19

vaccine. we have the interview with the ceo of novavax next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ you can go your own way it's time you make the rules. so join the 2 million people who have switched to xfinity mobile. you can choose from the latest phones or bring your own device and choose the amount of data that's right for you to save even more. and you'll get nationwide 5g at no extra cost. all on the most reliable network. so choose a data option that's right for you. get nationwide 5g included and save up to $300 a year on the network rated #1 in customer satisfaction. it's your wireless. your rules. only with xfinity mobile.

the temerity to take a couple days off. let's get to the virus story because we have the latest data in covid hospitalizations reaching new heights in the u.s. officials warned of a post-christmas surge infection. fourthas become the nation -- novavax biotech company is starting the final stage of its trials of the vaccine. the president and ceo told

bloomberg he is confident and can be effective as the moderna and pfizer shot and also it will work against the new variant of the virus. in the middle of testing vaccines against that strain. use the same we has worked very well against the flu. we have shown that our flu vaccine recently showed a very broad response against multiple strains. so we are hoping that we had the same effect with covid. >> phase 3 is a big deal to be starting. can you update us then on your timeline? >> we can. to be clear, this is our third efficacy trial that we have started. we started with the phase to be trial in south africa and 4400 volunteers. in september it restarted a

phase 3 program and the u.k. we have completed dosing on that. like all the other vaccines, you unblind when you have a certain number of cases, so we are waiting to get to that level in the u.k., which will probably be early in the first quarter. now the u.s. where we started this trial will be doing the same thing. we will be accruing 30,000 volunteers and we will be watching for the number of cases. so we have three ways to look at the efficacy of our vaccine over the coming months. is it fair to compare the efficacy of a traditional vaccine like novavax as it is to the mnra and their efficacy? >> i think it is. we're all measuring the same thing. all having a fairly harmonized influence. we are taking a look at the type of jerseys -- type of disease we are trying to prevent.

alix: do you expect an efficacy in the 90's? is that something we can realistically expect? >> we do not know until we know. didn'td on what we preclinical primates and what we did in phase i trials, the immunogenicity data that we have demonstrated has been at or above the levels of moderna and pfizer. so we should have similar results. alix: do you have a good understanding yet of some of the side effects? did they increase? i know you said they are blind, but do you have a read on that yet? >> what we have is a read on side effects from earlier studies and what we have been doing on phase 3 in the u.k. and we have a benign, i guess you would call it, side effect profile. the immuneave with

stimulant in the antigen protein that we put in, we just finished a phase 3 clinical trial with influenza earlier this year with a very benign profile and early studies with our covid vaccine are the same. alix: you compare the flu vaccine, you mentioned that earlier to my question about the new strain. if you had to go back and tweak things for the new strain, how quickly can you do that with a traditional vaccine? >> well, that's a good question. it will take time. i have to say i do not believe we will have to tweak it, but if we did, it would take time and you would do some comparability studies in animals and humans. alix: are you concerned at all? do you think that would delay the scala process? i know you think -- the scale up process? but i think market purchase up its want to understand what the

risk is of the new strain and how they have to think about it. >> as i say, i think it is a low risk for our vaccine. risk that our vaccine will not work on the new stream. , if wewe had to do it had to change the antigen back intond put it human studies for some period. novavaxhat was the resident and ceo stan erck speaking to my colleague alix steel. let's get the latest on the situation in europe. the vaccines will be at containing this third wave? maria: there is no question the medical community agrees is probably the only way to combat coronavirus. but the focus very much in europe is about the increasing the capability to vaccinate

people. it is about how many people can you vaccinate and how many people can you vaccinate quickly. this of course is happening in the context of a third wave. there have been people going up and down europe trying to get back home for christmas. that can be an issue come january. the other focus is when you look at vaccines in europe is very much about the regulation. in the u.k. they could have approved today the astrazeneca vaccine. is scheduled to happen january 12, now moving to january 6. the european regulator has come under a lot of criticism for being perhaps too slow compared to the u.k. and the u.s., and that is something europe is now open to remedy, just to get more people vaccinated before the summer. manus: yep. in germany, the speed -- maria, thank you. one of the overarching themes is

a risk-on narrative and a growth trajectory for 2021. that sees the dollar lower and that is playing out the commodities narrative. i want to show you what exactly is going on. there's some nice bits and pieces tehre -- there. opec is next week. where she has secretly gone to. maybe she left me behind. with that in mind, he's all in oil500,000 extra barrels of to come to the market. this is the commodity complex. copper, i love the copper story. 9the in the midst of the consecutive month of gains. that's the longest winning streak since 1994. 1994. the last time you saw a beltre like this you get deficits, a lowered dollar, and you have a

whole momentum in terms of once in a generation move like this. so, will the deficits hold? you also have at the bottom of your screen, cobalt is back and unchanged. czink coming back a little bit, but it's undoubtedly the copper trade on the up. equities flying higher. you have a whole narrative of where growth is trumping value for the first time in nearly four months. global equities up by .25%. roll on the records. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time.

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europe.t's daybreak dislocation sits in in terms of the time, pace, and scale of vaccine rollout from europe and the u.s. to here in t

he gcc, everybody is at a different moment and different trajectory. daniele antonucci is chief economist and macro strategist. to what extent will that differentiation play in macro strategy in 2021? good morning. daniele: good morning. first of all, i think one theme is that the economies that are pen sooner rather than later will bounce back much more quickly. this means the developed world, initially, the u.s. and u.k. have already started the vaccination product. they expect a bounceback for next spring. degreeo a delay to some we should see a similar pattern and a bounceback also around spring. then when it comes to emerging markets, the situation is much

more nuanced, will be much more differentiated. some will also start to recover before the summer, or some other markets will have to wait later in the year. but we're also, from a longer-term point of view, positive on emerging markets both on the equity side and on the debt side of things. even though we do differentiate between very large complex. you took me right to the ground zero i wanted to go to. daniele antonucci, chief strategist. bloomberg has run the numbers. 3000 basis points of rate cuts in emerging markets. --y want to play it out number 14 emerging-market equities. for credits -- number one emerging-market equities. it is coming up to, what time is it? 6:30 a.m. what a beautiful shot of the

city of london. but it's in tier four, a city that fights hard and comes back very quickly. this is bloomberg. ♪ erg. ♪

good morning. it is daybreak europe. futures push higher. coronavirus hospitalizations in the u.s. reaching new records. 50,000.rus deaths we hear from the ceo of vaccine

developer novavax. centerfold in financial operations into a holding company. regulated like a bank, shares in alibaba shareholder softbank jumped. the markets are putting in new records all around. our reporter from washington says there is virtually no chance of $2000 checks going to the american public. this is the effective free money shot in the arm that equity markets are looking for, as the house passes the legislation on the pandemic relief bill and funding, it goes to the senate. it is a year of sheer wonder in terms of policy response, so who knows. $2000 checks, get it would be bringing your income in the united states back to 25%

above pre-covid levels. nasdaq trades above growth values for the first time in months. they find performance this morning, up one half of 1%. bybal equities margin higher one quarter of 1%. the elf of this, is it lower dollar, higher oil? who knows where bitcoin goes. the dollar is lower. to that extent, you are seeing that as an underpinning of the commodity trade as well. oil, 4790. a full-scale recovery and vaccine rollout, what does that do to the narrative? bitcoin, virtually parabolic in the last four trading sessions. let's talk about the lead story. alibaba and the stocks in hong kong are rebounding after pretty frenetic selling with china's

largest tech firms. the fear is that scrutiny will spread beyond desperate beyond jack ma's empire. so, will the rebound last? juliette saly has the answer for that with her morning call. you better not get this wrong. juliette: i will try my best but as with all of our morning calls, there are a few differing views. they reckon there is more pressure not only for alibaba, rebounding today, but also its three major rivals. had $200to monday, she billion in hong kong trade. saying these companies have been bywing at a piece deemed beijing to be too fast. the price target on alibaba's u.s. shares, citing some uncertainty around government

oversight and potential for further direct regulatory action. , they areprovides said to be mulling this holding company. significant pullback is holding a buying opportunity. tech giants have been hit incredibly hard, as we know. the white line is alibaba. it is further from analysts 12 month price target in hong kong. and analyst recommendations in hong kong after the new year break. manus: thank you very much. now, to the pound. question some of the details. the eu envoy unanimously

approving the accord. that is ensuring that the eu and britain can continue to trade goods. -- that eu officials financial regulation and oversight is strong enough. let's get the details with our finance reporter. the future,s around i don't think it is very much that laxity robustness, it is whether the equivalent will be granted. the equivalency, decisions where the eu has to be , and the u.k. pretty much is robust. decision.litical

the eu is using it as a tool. it is concerned that maybe the u.k. will undercut it and disadvantage financial. that is what is ahead. much more negotiations in the city of london. in many ways, the overall brexit deal is a. victory. giving away a lot more than we get. than a million finance workers. world's firsthe anti-trade. much more uncertainty in the city of london,. anus: we have already seen significant transfer of assets perhaps in name but also in human capital as well. what is the timeline and how

pressing is that timeline to resolve equivalents? >> the memorandum of understanding for financial services to be signed by march. negotiations, that we could be in a good place. as we know, these deadlines in , about 58 areas, and three months to do that is a fairly tall order. exactly will change on january 1? >> for the past decade, the advantage of the city of london is it has had these sport

rights, hundreds of thousands of workers in london. the world's biggest trading block the eu. what they have been doing is setting up outposts in paris, frankfurt, other european cities. that is another big area where there is a lot of uncertainty. so theyading in london, could move wholesale between paris and frankfurt. basically, this could be just the beginning. if we do not see this in place, we will see service workers and assets moving from frankfurt to paris. where the eu has granted access , wantingearinghouse

this bank in euros. it needs to be a period of time. 18 months granted for that. again, we will see that move over time. manus: ok, thank you so much. with thecial reporter very latest on the take on the brexit deal. bankest is quintet private chief economist and macro strategist. ofhave ceiling great deal enthusiasm by sterling, etc. there is a laundry list, it is time to reduce your underweight. what if any action have you taken around this trade deal being inactive? >> the trade deal was our own

and in itself, it would not trigger any decision at the moment. but we are looking at how this develops. one month for three-month horizon. frome long-term investors, an extended horizon point of view. the way we approach it is this. from the short-term, potentially border disruption, it also means limited to know regulatory alignment and provisions for services. it is also happening in the context of covid-19, which requires fiscal stimulus which will likely mitigate the blow. we are watching is how the relationship between the u.k. the economyand how

and sensors adapt to the challenges that may arrive from this. manus: we have seen considerable fiscal intervention. 2021, what england do you expect from them? the size, the shape, andy scope boeolicy response from the in 2021? >> generally, for the u.k. but also others, what has been changing is the cooperation between monetary and fiscal authorities. crisis,al financial euro crisis, central banks wanted to stimulate, they were engineering deflation. now they are both working together. they are no longer offsetting

each other but they are cooperating. i think this is the general theme. this is a health crisis first and foremost. no bad actors, quite a bit of deleveraging to do. risk fora positive markets, it is actually overstimulation rather than a sudden tight in fiscal policies. narrative inhat mind, are you less concerned about a more permanent scarring and unemployment as we come out the other side of covid? >> i don't think we will have rid of scarring altogether. this has been a quite sharp recession. way to say that the mitigate for site -- precisely this type of fiscal support. so far, the default cycle is not

in as bad as it could have been. that is why bankruptcies have not skyrocketed everywhere as one expected. importantnk is an point. yes, it may be that we could have in some areas of the world sometime before we get back to full employment. the economy that has recovered among the major ones. i think the fiscal support especially among central banks, this is what will likely mitigate the scarring over the middle term. the repricing that has happened, in the cable trade and the eurosterling trade, and number of people this morning, a possibility that eurosterling makes it to. t.

tradee sterling progressing in 2021? at this level? let's call it 91 for cash. or is there pot -- or is there a possibility of more dynamic move in the currency? >> i don't think sterling would euro parity against the given that now we have a trade deal. friction over the short term. i think such a movement may have happened if we had a particularly destructive no deal outcome. 0.89, takingis at a 12 month view. it is not that effort from where we are. normalization,ra some of the areas that need to be hammered out our in fact

agreed. we were to cd repositioning of sterling, this is what softens the blow. ifs is what you see again some of these disruptions are particularly pronounced, more than expected. you would think that the more vote -- the more global ftse 100 would outperform. u.k. markets are among the most liberal in the world. they may just about a quarter of the revenue in the u.k. thanks to currency we is, they may not perform the domestic markets where they are more exposed to a weakened domestic economy. manus: thank you so much for the and with us. -- for being with us.

let's get you up to speed. the house has passed a bill toing $600 stimulus checks $2000. it cleared the chamber and is headed to the senate. but, it creates a dilemma for the republicans. many had previously opposed large payments despite president trump's stamp of approval. say memberources states are urgently commission to complete negotiations on what would be a economic and political win for both sides. the deal would expand chinese markets access for international investors. women's rights activist has been found guilty of inciting regime change. she was sentenced up to five years in prison but may be released as early as next year

on time served. and allegedsted tortured through international condemnation. aides to president-elect joe biden described this as unjust and troubling. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. coming up on the show, saudi arabia has announced a renewed ban on alcohol sales. this is bloomberg. ♪

it is "daybreak: europe." we cover the markets across the globe. south africa has announced a renewed ban on alcohol sales.

it is the second wave of infections. the country passed one million, that pretty important mark at the moment. let's get to our bureau chief. the indications of the new variant of the virus in south africa> ? >> this more aggressive strain of the virus identified in the eastern part is a real game changer in terms of the country's response to the second wave of infections, which governments have already said struck the country much earlier than expected. the concern of course, that some countries including the u.k., turkey, and nigeria, have already placed travel restrictions, to make sure that this new lite should not crossover. ist will be a bigger concern

when it crosses over. that is certainly something we will be watching for. manus: that is the last thing that is needed in terms of the growth trajectory, and certainly not fiscally as well. the strict lockdown in march, but just contextualize the risks now. already suffered two downgrades since the outbreak in march. ,hat we will be looking out for something warned about a couple of months ago. that being a potential sovereign debt crisis in south africa. what investors and ratings agencies will be looking out

for. whether there is enough fiscal discipline as well as cuts to huge public sector wages. what will be at the center of this is whether there will be enough political will to make those decisions. these are decisions that need to be made to get the economy and 2021.tlook on of course, all of this amidst the country trying to get access to the covid-19 vaccine. president donald trump already said that we expect to get the first batch in the second quarter. discipline will have to be closely watched in terms of the access to the vaccine in 2021. manus: great to have you with me, our south african bureau chief. as soon as i get the vaccine, i

am on a plane to south africa. cannot wait to get back to the country. coming up, planning to fold its financial operations into a folding -- into a holding company. we have the details. this is bloomberg. ♪

"daybreak: is europe." fold its is looking to financial obligations into a holding company that could be regulated like a bank. doing to itsis ant structure? is --ir told is that and what we are told is that ant is planning to fold all businesses that require a financial license into this holding company. that would mean it businesses in wealth management, ensuring

payments, and mybank, which is an online lender, could all be folded into this company. finalize howors they plan to supervise financial holding companies in china. capital restrictions and also banks and fintech companies. that obviously has some kind of impact on the investors in valuations. quick response on investor reaction? >> it is interesting that we saw softbank shares rise after the news went out. i think many were fearing even worse, which is that they would have had to stop all businesses. that provides some investor

relief. manus: great scoop. and chen tracking ant alibaba. open" is up next with matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> good morning and welcome to "bloomberg markets." i am matt miller. rally flies further, global stocks had to another record after the u.s. house of representatives backed stimulus checks. here are your top headlines from the bloomberg terminal. payouts for the people, th