♪ >> the house passes a virus really built increasing payments to do thousand dollars per person and now heads to the senate. europe's vaccine scramble. your vented lisi to speed up the rollout of a covid shot. spain becomes the latest country to record 50,000 deaths. u.k. stocks trade higher, trading for the first time since an eu trade deal was struck. we get the latest on brexit.

welcome to bloomberg surveillance. i'm matt miller in berlin, for francine lacqua and tom keene. let's check in with what's going on with the markets. the ftse is trading higher, now up almost 130 points. 6631. the first day of trading since the brexit trade deal was agreed because yesterday, the ftse was closed for the boxing day holiday. ftse had beenthe one of the worst performing european equity indexes, down 14%, 15% year to date. it is now clawing back some of those losses after this deal has been agreed. you can see the pound right now up as well to $1.35. rising. 10 year yield is as investors feel comfortable enough to sell some of that debt. and bitcoin, little changed at

26,630. i know a lot of investors are watching. it is becoming much more acceptable asset to own on wall street after rising above $28,000 over the weekend. let's get the first word news for you right now. president-elect joe biden is accusing national security staff loyal to president of blocking a smooth transition. he's warning that america's enemies could take advantage of the situation. biden says he is not being given all the information he needs, describing the position as irresponsible. spain has become the fourth european country with more than 50,000 coronavirus deaths. it has been one of the hardest hit by the pandemic but has refrain from imposing a strict national lockdown from the likes we have seen in germany at the u.k. and france. spain says the number of people dying from the virus has slowed since november.

eu governments are signaling support for completing work on an investment deal with china. bloomberg sources says member states are urging the commission to complete negotiations on what would be a major economic and political win for both sides. the deal would expand access to chinese markets for international investors. that is your first word news. bill.s. house has passed a increasing stimulus checks to americans to $2000. democrats and moderate republicans voted in favor of the proposal, backed by president trump as well. the bill heads to the senate. joining us is bruce einhorn. the interesting thing is although donald trump backs of this, many republicans opposed it, could the senate block it? bruce: yes, the senate could block it. it's unclear whether the senate will even vote on it.

chuck schumer will try to have all itl brought up, but takes is one republican senator to object to it. then, it could potentially go into limbo. mitch mcconnell is the majority leader. he is not required to pick up any bill that comes his way from the house. he could just ignore it. on the other hand, there is the override of the president's veto of the defense authorization act which has bipartisan support. that is something mcconnell would like to move ahead with. senator bernie sanders has threatened to filibuster that unless mcconnell gives him a vote on the stimulus checks -- relief checks, i'm sorry. matt: the interesting thing is this comes at a time where there are a couple of really important runoff votes in georgia. i wonder if those republicans

will have to get behind the increased stimulus idea as well in order to win the popular vote. bruce: it is a good question. republicans really are divided on this issue. you have some republicans that are in line with trump, saying they want to have $2000 checks to go out to all americans. you have other republicans who are saying no, we don't want to spend that much money. the republicans, two senators from georgia, have not really stated clearly where they stand on this. kelly leffler has said she would be willing to consider it but would like to see offsetting cuts. and that would be quite difficult to do in a short timetable for such a large amount of money. we are still waiting to hear what senator david produced is on this. meanwhile, the democratic will be hammering them between now and election day on this issue. matt: bruce, thank you for

joining us. bloomberg politics reporter bruce einhorn talking us through the latest with the stimulus. joining us this morning is john hardy, head of fx strategy at saxo bank, to talk about the implications of this. the stimulus has driven risk assets higher and we continue to see dollar weakness. do you expect that to continue into 2021? for the forecast, yes, a weaker dollar. i'm a little concerned of where we are in markets right now. they seem to be awfully extended on the speculative funds year-over-year. i think the questions are early in the carrier -- the calendar. i think there is plenty of room for a little uncertainty. i'm really curious what happens to the u.s. longer yield. i think that can provide a bit of a break. we see the 10 year yield heading

significant above 1% which it should. we are supposed to be seeing this reflationary recovery that the markets seem to be thoroughly positioned for next year. if it is not heading above that level, there is something else wrong. it is all about the fact the economy is not growing as expected and we are waiting for more liquidity and stimulus, which is dollar bearish. near-term uncertainty is on the track of this bear path here. matt: is it something we are getting? are we getting more stimulus from the biden administration anyway? is that something the market has priced in? john: as we know, what is so important about these two georgia senate races, if they both go to democrats, it really does change the game. yes, you don't have quite the power you would affect if you had a 53-47 majority on the part of the democrats because there are a couple of centrist democrats and independents that can make them important, but a

far different ballgame if you still have the senate in the republicans' hands. hearken back to the obama presidency, you saw for six years, obama was largely unable to do anything at all. perhaps biden is more able to work in a bipartisan way, but that is just not the way u.s. politics has been headed for decade or more. this is really key stuff. these two georgia senate races are really important as we look at this going into next year. what do you expect as far as efforts to fight the virus? how much does that differentiate economies and their currencies for you? well, as a base assumption, looking at vaccine rollouts is important to see it progressing and if the vaccine works. i have not done the exercise of

differentiation into whose likely to get done faster than anybody else. it is important to see that a, it is efficacious, and, b, it can allow some degree of normalization. c, to what degree do we see scarring from this will episode since the covid-19 breakout? main street insolvency is an breakup series versus the supercharged success of incumbents of big monopolies, etc.. it will be a very interesting to watch as 2021 unfolds. lookingal, i think just to see how the vaccine rollout works, what kind of timescale we can expect, that will be clearing out as the pace in the next month or so. matt: what is the kind of recovery that you expect on the others of this? a lot of people would say in the second half of next year. john: well, the markets are very much position for a reflationary recovery.

of thee odd exception long end of the u.s. yield curve. looking forward, i am curious wet is the pace of this -- have tremendous pent-up demand and that is quite clear. we have pent-up savings because the initial round was so overwhelming. stockpile tohuge put their work into the treasury. there are trillions ready to hit the economy of things and shape up and if the change is allowed by this vaccine rollout and if it succeeds to the great everyone hopes. there's a lot of if's, but the set up is for a weaker dollar. if we do see the stimulus releasing this cash, further stimulus into the economy, we should see inflation picking up. it is all about the long end of the u.s. yield curve and if that is allowed to rise. if it is not, we will see yield curve control because the fed is not satisfied that the employment is recovering sufficiently fast. that would potentially

supercharge the dollar bearish scenario down the road. whereas, u.s. long yields allowed a little longer to rise of their own accord under this supposedly inflationary scenario would break on the pace of dollar declines as we get into the second half of next year. a lot of if's, ann's and but, but that is what the market is looking for. largely sympathetic but there are things that can go wrong. matt: john, you will stick with us. we have a lot more to talk about. john hardy from saxo bank. coming up, we will talk about the pound as businesses across europe breathe a sigh of relief at the last minute brexit deal. sterling 2021 hold for as well as u.k. assets which are rallying hard today? we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: economics, finance, politics, this is bloomberg surveillance. i am matt miller in berlin for francine lacqua, who is on a well-deserved vacation. let's get the bloomberg business flash for you. ma'sberg sources say jack and group is planning to fold its financial operations onto a holding company that can be regulated more like a bank. the move could cripple the growth of the firm's most profitable units. we are told the operation might fold into the folding company which will include wealth management as well as consumer lending and payments. qual tricks has filed for what could be one of the first u.s. ipo's of 2021. this comes over two years after

the maker of customer survey software was bought by sap. the top end of its range, the offering could value it at $14.4 billion. sheila patel, the chairman of goldman sachs's asset management unit, is leaving. she exits after nearly two decades at the firm. one of the company's most senior women, she shepherded some of goldman's highest profile relationships around the world. she will become an advisory director in the new year. that is your bloomberg business flash. now, eu envoys have unanimously approved the last minute brexit accord which ensures britain and the eu can continue to trade goods without tariffs or quotas. however, eu officials still have to rule separately that british financial regulations and oversight are strong enough to create a level playing field for those services.

still with us is john hardy from saxo bank. john, clearly, financial services and services in general are a much bigger part of the economy, but the market seems to be breathing a sigh of relief, just about the goods agreement here. does it make sense to you that the pound continues to rise? john: i think this reaction is a damp squib. if you look at the options market where you have an implied volatility coming into this deal announcement at extremely elevated levels. most of that focus on the short end one month. those imply volatilities collapsed because there was no need for that disaster insurance. the insurance that in payoff. you would've thought you would see a more profound sterling rally. they backed off a little bit. that very reaction gives me some pause for the potential for sterling higher near-term but if you live at the pound valuation,

it is so cheap. there's a lot of padding for the pound for things to go wrong for the pound. i just don't see it will go much lower unless you start to see an economy that is stumbling and you start to see inflation picking up because the fiscal stimulus, little bit like the story for the u.s. dollar port of the narrative around why the u.s. dollar should weaken, inflation runs higher while the rates stay near zero. you mentioned the u.k. index and the considerable rise, enthusiasm for u.k. assets, allocations that could be raised because now there's a deal in place and exposure to u.k. markets. i think that could help the pound out at the margin here. near-term, scratching my head a bit. it could go lower on the fact that, yes, we have a good deal but now there is more red tape or bureaucracy, papers to fill out. that is not good. we still in effect in financial

services not have a full brexit and because we don't know with that deal looks like in full for next year and the years following that. there's a lot in the mix here. it's just part of the whole process. this is just one step in a very long and difficult divorce. matt: i'm sure you spend most of your day talking about the dollar. a lot of it talk about the pound as well. what are the other payers are most interesting right now? what should investors be paying attention to looking through the big ones? john: you are seeing a lot of currencies moving in sync with one another along the lines of this reflationary narrative. commodity currencies moving to some degree or another in lockstep. scandinavian currencies that are exposed to a hope for a global rebound doing likewise. one of the interesting stories

right now is the turkish lira which got so cheap and really was in an existential situation at times before they finally decided -- president er odgan finally decided to take that. you've got a very interesting starting point with a supercheap currency, extremely high interest rate. you look at other places in em, your starting point is a very low yield. yes, there is some carry versus the non-yielding developing markets would've things go right in the new year and don't experience horrific problems with the vaccine and things move forward, you've got a good starting point even for the turkish lira. there is plenty of room for problems, but it's an interesting case relative to some of the -- somewhat lack of differentiation in places and other payers. matt: thank you for very much

for joining us. john hardy is the head of affect strategy at saxo bank. coming up, we will take a look back at some of the biggest stories in 2020. there were things that happened other than the virus pandemic. remember, there was a u.s. election. we will see some details about how that went down. this is bloomberg. ♪

nomination for his

president of the united states of america. >> my fellow americans, tonight with a heart full of gratitude and boundless optimism, i profoundly accept this domination for president of the united states. >> everybody knows he's a lighter. > i want to make sure. >> first in class. >> you were the worst president america has ever had. come on. >> when needed, i wear masks. i don't wear masks like him. every time you see him, he could be wearing a mask. he shows up with the biggest mask of ever seen. >> what is the trump health care plan? >> i guess i am debating you, not him but that's ok. radical left. >> would you shut up, man? >> we have some breaking news of the top of the hour, president trump has tested positive for

coronavirus. u.s. features take a leg lower. >> i spent four days there, didn't have to. i could have stayed at the white house with the white house said because were president, let's do it. fine. we will win this. as far as i'm concerned, we already have. >> i am here to tell you tonight we believe we are on track to win this election. >> i want to take a look at what's going on in terms of the election map. where we stand right now on the electoral map, biden 264, versus president donald trump 214. >> the associated press, plus nbc and others have projected joe biden. >> the people of this nation have spoken. they've delivered us a clear victory. a convincing victory. people.y for we, the matt: that was a look back at the u.s. election. joe biden will be inaugurated in

22 days, if all goes as planned. coming up, final stage trials are set to start for another covid-19 vaccine. our interview with the ceo of novavax. we will bring you that shortly, as well as a discussion about whether or not those who are vaccinated should enjoy special privileges. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: economics, finance and

politics. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." let's get the latest on the virus. covid hospitalizations have reached new highs in the u.s. as officials warned of a surge.ristmas meanwhile, here in europe, spain has become the fourth nation to reach a grim milestone, more than 50,000 people have died from covid-19. here in germany, the country is seeking to expand production of shots to help bolster the continent's vaccination program. in order to get more on the situation, we go to maria tadeo in russell's. -- brussels. how effective or how efficient is a vaccine rollout going to be in an attempt to tame a third wave? a good points because european governments are

concerned about a third wave after the christmas holidays. we know there are people who move around to the home for christmas. in terms of vaccine, everyone in the medical community believes this is the best weapon, but the problem is not so much the vaccine, but how many people can you get vaccinated and quickly? that is where the focus is turning to next. we know the germans and italians are focused in on that to increase capabilities and be able to get more people vaccinated before the spring. the other issue very much in focus in brussels and europe is the regulation of the vaccine rollout. we know the european regulator vaccine to get on the that was running three weeks after the u.k. agreed to get the vaccine approved. the europeans are trying to catch up on that time. we are expecting a decision from moderna to happen january 6. that was brought forward from

january 12. they are also hoping that will increase the portfolio the commission has available to get people vaccinated quicker. matt: thanks very much. maria bringing us the latest from the eu capital. joining us now is the chairman of the world medical association. let me ask you how optimistic you are about the rollout of this vaccine. the european union does things in a rather slow manner, germany, specifically, is an incredibly bureaucratic country. can we get it done quickly enough? resist from trying to compare the different bureaucracies, the different countries. i have tried to make an american text declaration once in my life. i was a bit abused by that. we don't have

enough vaccine available at the present time. anhave built up infrastructure here and we are sure to be able to get a 5 million shots administered until the end of march. that means 2.5 million people vaccinated out of 83 million population. we think it will take up to the end of this year -- end of next year, sorry, end of 2021 to achieve herd immunity, which is the goal, the aim, the target. it is not bureaucracy at present time that is the top problem, it is more the availability of vaccine. we are very content with the way the european agency handled it the difference to the u.k. and u.s., we did not get emergency approval, but we got a registered, formal, correct,

tested program of approval of these drugs. i think the vaccine situation is better in the european union then in the u.k. or in some areas of the u.s. of the mostk one interesting things to come out is spain hasss recently said it is going to record the names of people who refuse the vaccine. others have suggested that those who do get the vaccine should be allowed special privileges, for example, getting on a plane or going into a restaurant. do you think we are going to see more processes like that? frank: definitely. the question is, are there some privileges coming with the vaccinations for those people who are vaccinated? first of all, problems like that -- programs like that exist. if you have to enter some

countries in africa, you have to have a vaccination, otherwise, they won't let you in. in this country, we have compulsory measles vaccinations. other european countries have an extensive vaccination program. we have a lot to discuss, but we have nothing to decide just now because you can only have restricting lists or passports or whatever if you have offered the vaccination to the whole population, if you have discussed it, if you know about long-term effects of the vaccine. you can't do it straightaway and off the cusp. recording those who get the vaccine, is are going to be a register for those who get the vaccine at least here in germany or other european countries? frank: no, i don't think we are going to have a register because we have a federal state here, 16 states decide each and

individually and on themselves. they willpessimistic ever come to a common accord, but we have a very good who yellow passport, which is the vaccination passport, which most europeans carry not in their pocket all the time. somethink they will be sort of immunity passport in the end because the importance is not only vaccination, we do not know yet what the efficiency rate of the vaccination is overall. biontech says they have a 95% positive immunity rate, but astrazeneca came up with a study -- immunity that counts, not vaccination. we do not have a thorough proof of immunity yet. before we don't have that, we are not able to discuss any privileges for those who are immunized. we have a lot to discuss, but nothing to decide. enoughntil we get

believe the, do you federal government or 16 states are going to have to remain on extensive lockdown? it has become increasingly clear that people simply are not capable of proper social distancing. they just cannot stay one meter away from each other. frank: if you look at the pictures from the austrian ski stations, if you look at the parks here in berlin, i totally agree with you. people are on of keeping social distance and wearing masks all the time, but that will be the long-term result. wearing is not only masks and keeping social distancing, it is also closing shop. here in berlin, all shops are food andom drugstores, grocery and pharmacies. closed.ng else is

it is a very cheap life. it comes in very handy. you won't be able to keep that up forever. i think the interest in vaccinations, once we have the vaccine, will increase, but we will have to discuss how we can deep-freeze this country -- de -freeze this country from the more regulated shutdown solution. they will definitely be more social distancing and we will have to convince our people. them, wenot convince have to vaccinate them and the decision of compulsory vaccination will come up again. matt: how concerned are you? i live right here in the middle of berlin and i see these whoive gatherings of people believe bill gates is at the head of some people global kabbalah in order to profit off of vaccine.

they also think that world war ii never ended and that germany does not have a constitution. these are among the more sane things they think. there are a number of anti-vaccine others among them is that really a problem in this country? frank: i want to give you a very ambiguous answer. it is a problem and it is not a problem. there is this, and i think you have that in other countries as well. there is this bottom layer of society which is about 10% to ideologies,ow crude who are very sometimes difficult to discuss with because they have the fixed opinion and they can never listen, only talk. the problem here is, 85% of the population at here to what the government says. 85% of the people have agreed to

all these measures. they are not happy with it, but they know it is necessary. how long is 85% being hustled by those 15% and being restricted because all that we do, we have to do it because of these idiots who are really making life so difficult. you will some people never convince with no good argument of this world, but you have to deal with them somehow or another. vaccers,of the anti- there are two types of people. there are those who are unconvinced about, -- unconvin cable, the other want to see if there are any long-term effects. if they realize that people who are vaccinated have a privilege and have not suffered mentally from the vaccination, a lot of

these people will come and ask for a vaccination as well. matt: so you have got to separate the rights burger -- reichspurger from the soccer moms. frank montgomery with the world medical association. final stage trials are set to start for another covid-19 vaccine. our interview with the ceo of novavax is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is "bloomberg surveillance."

i am matt miller in berlin. company novavax is starting the final stage trials of its covid-19 vaccine. the ceo told us he is confident it will be as effective as the moderna and pfizer shots and that it will also work against the new strain of the virus. -- everybody is in the middle of testing the other vaccines against that's during -- that strain. what we do know is we have used an same platform with antigen that has worked well against flu. our flu vaccine recently showed a broad response against multiple strains. we are hoping we have the same effect with covid. to bese 3 is a big deal starting. can you update us on your timeline? stan: we can, and to be clear, this is our third efficacy trial we have started.

we started the trial in south africa, 4400 volunteers. in september, we started a phase 3 program in the u.k. we have completed dosing on that. vaccines, youther unblinded when you have a certain number of cases. we are waiting to get to that level in the u.k., which will probably be early in the first quarter. in the u.s., we will be doing the same thing, we will be accruing 30,000 volunteers and we will be watching for the number of cases. we have three ways to look at the efficacy of our vaccine over the coming months. alyx: is it fair to compare the efficacy of a traditional vaccine like novavax as it is to the mrna and their efficacy? stan: i think it is. we are all measuring the same thing. we have globally, a fairly harmonized and point.

we are taking a look at the type of disease and we are trying to prevent. i think we can fairly consistently look across all of the vaccines. : do you expect and efficacy in the 90's? stan: we don't know until we know. based upon what we did in preclinical, nonhuman primates and in phase one trials, the data we have demonstrated has been at or above the levels of the moderna advisor. -- and pfizer. alyx: do you have an understanding yet of some of the side effects? does it change versus age groups? i know you said they are blind, but do you have a read on that? stan: what we have is a read on side effects from earlier studies, and what we have been doing on phase 3 in the u.k. we have a benign side effect

profile. with the immune stimulant and the protein we put in. we just finished a phase 3 trial with influenza earlier this year benign safety profile and early studies with our covid vaccine are the same. alyx: you mentioned you compared the flu vaccine. if you had to go back and tweak things for the new strain, how quickly can you do that with a traditional vaccine? stan: that is a good question. it will take time. believeo say, i don't we will have to tweak it, but if we did, it would take time and you would do comparability studies. all? are you concerned at do you think that would delay the time?

i know you think you don't have to tweak it, but we just want to understand, i think market participants want to understand what the risk of the new strain is and how they need to think about it. stan: as i say, i think it is a low risk for our vaccine. a low risk that our vaccine will not work on the new strain. , if we hado take it to change the antigen somewhere and put it back into human studies. that was the ceo of talking with erck alix steel. -- alyx steel. considering folding operations into a holding company. we have details on what this means for ant, chinese tech, chinese regulation at large.

this is bloomberg. ♪

question is, what is the

best way to help people? anjudgment is that, across-the-board gift to 85% of taxpayers of a kind no one thinks can be sustained every quarter, is a mistake. cuts for myd tax adult children. we need help for the unemployed. we need help to make sure that the frontline workers are being taken care of. we need help to make sure that as much resources as possible are going to testing and vaccinating so we can put this in the rearview mirror. $2000 check is a kind of political opportunism.

terms of helping those who are most in need, in terms of strengthening our economic anure, our problem is not across-the-board lack of purchasing power. our problem is people in need who should be helped in targeted ways, and our problem is investing in the future of our country. proposal is not that. originally, when the stimulus bill was conceived, there were not any tax cuts here in the second round. attempt to find people in need and help them. i think that might have been a better approach, but i can see an argument for giving something to everybody. here is one statistic your

listeners should keep in mind. wages and salaries are running month belowllion a what they would have if covid had not happened. we should make that up. maybe we should make that up two times over. to theefore you got increase to $2000, we were making it up seven times over. i'm not sure i see a reason to take that from seven times over to 10 or 20 times over. better to target and invest. u.s. that was former treasury secretary larry summers telling us the u.s. should target and invest rather than back the $2000 stimulus payments. let's get a corporate story. foldroup is planning to

its financial operations into a holding company that could be regulated like a bank. this reaction to the problems that have come with its attitudey more brazen toward regulation in china. joining is now is lulu chen. issues a response to the that have cropped up since its planned ipo. how well is ant now coping with regulator requirements and party sentiment? media investor reaction based on softbank and alibaba share prices seems to suggest investors are relieved by this development. it is definitely better than the nightmare scenario where ant would have to break up the company or completely stop financial operations. the latest plan is they will have to loop in all of those

financial operations and wealth management services, consumer lending, insurance payments into that financial holding company that is going to be regulated more like a bank. we are seeing investors react very positively to that. see,ss we will have to only time will tell exactly how these things turn out. we are going to be sure to have you back on to talk more about aunt in the future. big story certainly for investors around the world and people who are interested in the chinese tech story. we are seeing markets in europe continue to rally with the ftse 162 pointup 2.5%, game. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> stocks power into year-end. the momentum shows no sign of abating. to clearis expecting the astrazeneca oxford vaccine possibly as early as today. this is an opportunity for boris johnson to reset his government. let's talk about politics stateside. the house of representatives backing $2000 stimulus checks. the georgia voters will likely decide. good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am guy johnson in for francine lacqua and tom keene. they have a well-deserved day off. the house -- ritika: has passed a bill that would replace the