♪ >> central banks are showing no sign they want to dip your foot off the gas. >> domestic activity is still really in the doldrums. >> we could see the first quarter dip back into negative territory. >> i'm expecting a fairly tumultuous year coming. >> the biggest stimulus is going to be the vaccine. >> it will be v-shaped for some. it may not be v-shaped for others. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. carol: from new york city and berlin, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on bloomberg tv and radio. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and tom keene all have the day off. witharol massar, along matt miller. it seems like everything is just fine. it is like record after another

record. certainly we saw that in the u.s. yesterday. yet, those virus headlines remind us that we are far from being out of the woods here. matt: absolutely. the vaccine is really one of the top stories here, but it has got to be that story overtaken by what we see going on in the equity indexes right now. the ftse is gaining more than 2%, 140 points. it's the first day of trading for the british and expert because they had yesterday off for the very british boxing day holiday. it is the first day they have traded since the trade deal was done. other than that, on this side of the atlantic we are focused on getting those vaccines out as quickly as possible. i know on your side, you are focused on the possibility of $2000 stimulus checks as something that leaves the senate .

certainly -- that leaves the senate, certainly the republicans in the senate in a bit of a dilemma. carol: we saw this after the financial crisis and continue to see now that they are willing to do everything and anything to make sure that the economy, while coming undone, to charrette up as much as possible, so we know that is happening. --to shore it up as possible to shore it up as much as possible, so we know that is happening. it is just pretty remarkable, the tech names, i think it is safe to say over the past couple of months that it is time for tech to sit to the sidelines, and yet that isn't happening. matt: even the financial services, the fintech companies in asia are doing well. we will talk about that throughout the program. a look at what is going on in terms of the financial markets more broadly

right now. first off, s&p futures are up again. after another new record, looks like the rally is set to continue. we can see the dollar weaker, but overall the dollar is trading a lot weaker today. evenar yields are rising, though the arrow is read there. that means investors feel safe enough to let go of the perceived safety of government debt. crude rising as well, up more a bet on the.23 on economy. gains,sing again, big more than 2%. the pound is up as well, although that is not difficult on a day when the dollar is down . is dollar 35% -- $1.3505 where the pound is today.

still a strong interest in bitcoin at $26,932. carol: i don't know if you saw this story that caught my attention. bearish dollar bets near decade high as we get ready to wrap up 2020. you mentioned the dollar under some pressure today. we continue to see a lot of speculative traders really betting against the dollar here at year-end, so that is certainly one of the other trades we are watching. let's bring in our guest to kick off the hour, wells fargo management's senior global equity strategist. he joins us from missouri. scott, good to have you here. remarkable that we are kind of at the end of this year after what i year at has been. global you make of equity records taken out one after the other? year, it has been a crazy and these record highs, the

market is definitely higher than we thought it was going to be at the end of the year. but matt mentioned bets on economic recovery. whether you are looking at commodities, aluminum, what the 10 year yield is doing, what sectors are performing, industrials have been a good performer, so these economically sensitive sectors, these asset classes sensitive to continuation of the economy have done well. as counted onrket additional stimulus from markets. who knows whether we get $2000 or stick with the $600. i think it is safe to say we will probably see even more stimulus from congress. good virus news, we keep getting good virus news. the market is anticipated that for a long time, so i think it should be no surprise -- carol: white, good virus news? you mean in terms of the vaccine? scott: i'm sorry, good vaccine

news. certainly the virus news is not been good. i think the market had a lot of confidence that there's a very bright light at the end of the tunnel. certainly we feel there's a bright light at the end of the tunnel. we are looking for 8% return in the s&p 500 over the course of 2021. matt: absolutely there are a lot of good stories. there are stories of countries looking at different viruses so they can add more to their speedingcountries up the virus roll up so they can gethurt immunity faster -- herd immunity faster. it seems like more countries will be offering a vaccine here. larry summers wrote an interesting op-ed for us yesterday. he is taking a lot of heat for saying he doesn't think consumers should get to thousand dollar checks, but i think there are a lot of populist

politicians out there that would disagree with him. do you think consumers are really going to sit on that money and not go out and spend it? or are they just waiting for a chance for restaurants to open, for airlines to be safe again, for the sun to come out and make motorcycling more fun? i feel like if you gave me $2000, i would have it earmarked for spending pretty quick. scott: i think if i had $2000 in my pocket, i would probably spend it, and i guarantee my 29-year-old daughter would. $600 doesn't seem like i'm n -- doesn't seem look a lot to me. but it all comes down to consumer spending. i think this last round of stimulus, the direct payments to consumers, a lot of that money was saved. what we want is people out there spending money. they need to be confident. they need to have jobs. but you see a picture of times square and there's not much going on.

in most parts of the country, if you are driving around, i don't care if it is a tuesday afternoon or a saturday afternoon, there's a ton of traffic. it seems like it is back to about 100 percent. the only reason you would even know that there is anything going on in terms of a pandemic is you look over and someone is writing a car with a mask on. i think people want to get out. they want to spend money. they want to go to restaurants and bars. they are going to certainly spend, whether it is $600 or $2000, they are going to spend some of that money, but we certainly need consumer spending to be strong, to keep going to keep this recovery moving ahead. carol: i am listening to what you are saying, but there are millions of americans who, if they get $2000 or a few hundred dollars a week more, it is really about keeping a roof over their heads and food on the table. i do wonder, when does the equity market, the financial market kind of catch up with what is going on in the united states in a big swath of our

country? scott: you are exactly right because while many people would use that $600 or $2000 for discretionary things, not just things they need, there's a large number of people paying rent, making a car payment, essential types of things. ishink that the market looking well down the road not just as to what is going on here in the u.s., but globally as well. have stocks come far and fast? they certainly have. i think that if we get some improving news, we are going to keep going a little bit higher here. 175 number for the s&p 500 at the end of next year. if you look at where interest rates are, if you look at the pent-up demand out there, those valuations don't look overly

stretched. certainly they are nothing like march of 2000. so i think the market is not meaningfully overvalued, but certainly anticipating quite a bit of good news, certainly on the consumer front and the vaccine front. matt: scott, thanks so much for joining us. scott: thanks, guys. matt: carolyn and i both thank you. -- carol and i both thank you. [laughter] scott.happy new year, it is kind of interesting. it is something that has really been bothering me a lot in terms of what we are seeing on wall areet versus the rest of large part of our country, looking at a millions of americans turning to food banks for the first time. i guess when i read in the morning and just see global record when it comes to the equity trade, i see bitcoin, i see lots of companies continue

to deck out records and become wealthier and wealthier companies, i think it is great, but i do wonder, when does it become even more problematic that we have such a disconnect within a country, and maybe within a world more largely? matt: well, and a one of the big stories of this pandemic is it is going to accelerate, and bloomberg has been writing about this, at accelerates the income inequality or the wealth inequality not just in that country, but globally. the poor and the less privileged or harder hit by this kind of thing, and that is definitely one of the realities we are going to have to try and deal with, hopefully try and fight, but that still leaves the $2000 question out there. are consumers going to spend it, or keep it in their savings? a lot of people think they will save it for now, but come spring time as the virus lists, they may have that money -- that virus lifts, they may have that

money earmark for something else. carol: folks, we've got lots to come. matt and i are going to dig into electric vehicles a little later on. there have been 70 headlines -- there have been 70 headlines. you have been listening and watching -- listening to and watching "bloomberg surveillance ." ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the house has passed a bill that would replace the $2000 -- the $600 stimulus checks in the covid relief bill with $2000 checks. some republicans voted in favor of the proposal. that creates a dilemma for senate republicans. many previously opposed higher stimulus payments, but trump's approval could put political pressure on the. the house has voted to override president trump's veto of the defense spending bill. if the senate takes similar action, it would be the first

time one of the president vetoes has been overturned. president trump vetoed the bill in part because he wanted to attach unrelated provisions that eliminate content liability protections for tech companies. in new york, residents suffering financial hardships due to the coronavirus will get a break. they will be protected from evictions and foreclosures until november 1. the post-brexit trade deal is essentially a sideshow for the city of london. eu officials must rule separately that british --ancial regulato financial regulations are strong oversight.reate fair big banks have already started to shift people and assets to the continent. big changes may be in store for jack ma's ant group, under siege from chinese regulators. the company may fold financial operations into a holding company that could be more regulated, like a bank.

that would keep it from lending more. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. get gym results at home. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now.

♪ that andgment is across-the-board gift to 85% of

taxpayers of a kind that no one thinks can be sustained every quarter is a mistake. carol: that is the voice of larry summers, bloomberg contributor and former u.s. treasury secretary, who created quite a social media storm. sitting down with david westin, making that comment that people maybe shouldn't getting $2000 in terms of stimulus, and kind of explaining it in terms of the amount of income that has really been lost to society versus what this stimulus will push back many times over back into the economy. but yet, coming on with our team " to talkce of power about what he really meant by it, but i do think, and this is something we can get into with our team and with kevin and just a moment, about whether there are people that just don't necessarily understand what is going on really across the country, for those americans

that are really struggling. matt: i think there are a lot of people who don't know a lot of waiters and waitresses, bartenders and barbers, jim trainers who aren't getting -- gym trainers who aren't getting paid, gig workers. it just makes you look out of touch. on the other hand, there are people on the other side who feel like this is starting to slide into a kind of basing kind of basic income guarantee thing, and larry summers is on the record as having been against that for years. it is an interesting debate for sure, but one that i don't think i would want to take a position on as publicly as larry summers has. but that's what he does. that's his job. [laughter] carol: markets, we mentioned earlier, we are definitely seeing a global rally. we want to take a quick look at

the boards. you can see s&p 500 futures are up. you've got the 10 year yield at 0.93%. new york crude up a here. let's talk a little bit more about politics because i feel at this is obviously one of our big stories today, as it has been all year. have kevinand we cirilli standing by, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. we were talking about this yesterday, and larry summers making headlines with you and with david westin over the past few days as well. kevin: just a couple. [laughter] matt: now it looks like the senate may be able to big some headlines as well. the senate republicans are really in kind of a bind here, right? a lot of them have been against a bigger stimulus check, and now they have to either go against the president or waffle on their own words. kevin: some unknown variables this morning that we are waking up to here in washington, d.c.

that is first and foremost whether senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, the top republican in the senate, will present the $2000 stimulus checks for a vote. we should note yesterday, new information coming out that this morning, the democratic controlled house of representatives needed republicans to pass this to thousand dollar check stimulus measure. they were able to clear it with republican support. so in order to do so, they had to garner the support of centrist republicans, one of whom i spoke yesterday with on bloomberg "sound on." that is a republican from michigan, a member of the increasingly important problem solvers caucus, a bipartisan group of lawmakers who helped this the foundation for 900 billion dollars plus stimulus deal. i asked him point blank about why he voted for the $2000 stimulus check, and he mentioned all of the reasons that you and

carol were just talking about, but also noted for people in the middle class whose kids haven't been able to go to school, who have had to maybe balance working full-time with also having their students to the so-called virtual learning, to be able to get tutors, to be able to have some additional dispensable income to help their families, in no way were any of the republicans, based upon my reporting, arguing yesterday that this should be a handout, so to speak, that becomes the norm. but the third and final point i would make here is regardless of the outcome in the senate, this is an opportunity for the incoming biden adminstration to look at the republicans casting their ballot for $2000 stimulus biden,as president-elect as well as other democrats, have expressed support for and be able to say those are the republicans we are going to

toget in the first 100 days get another round of relief through. carol: i think about, in terms of elections, you know this better than most, people vote with their pocketbook, and it was pretty staggering that it took this long to get this second release package through. but having said that, there's a great story in the bloomberg that talked about georgia republican senator david perdue lobbying president trump last week because he was getting nervous about the runoff. so i do wonder at some point, do the republicans realize that economic issues ultimately translate into votes? kevin: it was an excellent report by our new colleague nancy cook. we are thrilled to have her joining the bloomberg news team. just a really perfect illustration of how senator produce -- senator purdue was viewing this has not just a political issue, but a significant policy issue that he as well as senator kelly loeffler are hoping to make in

the closing arguments of their campaigns. i would even go one step further. if you look at it from president trump's perspective, based upon my reporting, he is very savvy in the sense of the final narrative of the weeks of his campaign. what he has done by coming out to support the $2000 stimulus check is to stake a claim in the ground for populism at a time in which many potential 2020 for candidates like senator ted cruz are increasingly talking about the $27 trillion national debt. there has been a conservative in the to speak, that long term, that debt argument will win out. however, the president is saying that the populist streak in the republican party is still very much alive and well. carol: icarol: think this is all about what the parties want to be going forward, and thinking about the elections to come. kevin cirilli, always on it.

thank you so much for joining us in washington. on" on 99.1 in d.c. it is something we will be talking about. we will get a new administration and start counting down to the midterms. i do want to mention some headlines crossing. anthony fauci saying contact tracing is very difficult with the current virus numbers. he said january virus levels could be worse than december. at desired vaccine numbers at the end of december. this is coming as we are starting to see european governments planning ways to track people who get the vaccine so they can follow where the virus goes. matt: i was talking with somebody here in germany, a health official in berlin who was saying it's possible that we get it and if i those who have gotten the virus and only those people would be able to take flights, or only those people go

to restaurants. it hasn't gotten that far yet, and we don't actually know the true immunity affects, but we do know that people are thing about those kinds of processes already. coming up, morgan stanley's head of global macro joins us. an interview you don't wa

♪ matt: welcome back to "bloomberg surveillance." i'm matt miller in berlin, alongside carol massar in new york. we are in for tom, jon, and lisa. they are out on a well-deserved vacation. rallygain, a risk on pushing equity indexes to new highs. s&p futures are up again after the benchmark cash index touched a new high yesterday. the euro is gaining, but the dollar is losing ground, so most pairs that you look at involving gain.llar will see a $1.22 on the euro. let's take a look at the pound. it is also gaining against the dollar. but i think more interesting is the ftse.

the way equities are rallying in london right now really tells you a lot about how investors view the brexit trade deal. remember, that was finally figured out on christmas eve. of course, the ftse didn't trade on christmas friday. it also didn't trade yesterday because they were celebrating boxing day. so today is the first day investors have to vote with their wallets, so to speak, on the brexit deal, and they like it. up 136 points. you and the rest are used to big gains on the s&p. the ftse had been down 15% year to date, so they have a long way to go to catch up. you can see bitcoin rising as well, although that may be another case of just dollar weakness here. $26,985. carol: what is interesting about the brexit deal is that what i am understanding, and you know probably better than i do, is that someday people are leaving

london. some of it has to do with the virus, but i wonder what the future of the city is. we have this constant debate about the demise of new york city, everyone leaving because covid,id -- because of and it won't come back. time will tell. i do wonder what will be the impact of brexit on london. matt: for me, that is the biggest question as well. i would say london is my number one favorite city in the world. i absolutely love london. i've lived there -- i lived there for years. i really enjoy visiting. but you have to wonder how many people feel the need to live there in the city when finance professionals are moving to .rankfurt or paris or madrid and of course, the younger, cooler people are starting families and wanting to move out because you don't want to be stuck in a flat that costs 8000 pounds a week during covid times. you want to have a backyard.

i'm sure you have the same experience in new york. carol: we will see whether all of this sticks longer-term. let's see what sticks when it comes to the market. he's writing about what we might see, some of the surprises for 2021. let's bring in matt hornbeck, morgan global head of microstrategy -- of macro strategy. matt, there is enthusiasm around the globe, whether it is the brexit news finally getting ofolved, another round pandemic relief here in the united states. there is so much financial market enthusiasm. does it make sense to you, and does it carry over to 2021, in your view? matt h: i think it does, at least for the first several months of the year. liquiditye amount of that central banks are providing to markets not just in the u.s., but outside of the u.s. as well, is going to be pretty

formidable. i think markets are going to have a hard time not incorporating this liquidity into their prices. think risk on is the trade for the first couple of months of the year, and once the vaccine becomes more broadly distributed around the u.s., around the rest of the developed world midyear, then i think it becomes more difficult for markets in the second half. carol: how difficult in the second half? are you expecting official corrections at that point? there's a point where people say, wait, it is time for us to look at fundamentals again. ab this run-up isn't justified. what does the second half left like? -- second half look like? matt h: i would say what would beis

front and center for me. corrections, we have had a couple of 10% corrections in the s&p 500 over the past several months, but they didn't last. so it is really tough, i think, to call corrections during a period when liquidity is so overwhelming. again, i think bitcoin, you can kind of see it in the price as well. there is so much money being dumped into markets by central banks, investors have to find a place to put it, and either you find a place that has yield, and that is hard to do these days, or you are trying to find a place where price is keep going up and up. you can see that is happening in bitcoin these days. what point is all of this optimism for a vaccine and a v-shaped recovery post-covid

priced in? when we see something like airbnb going for $100 billion during covid, only worth $30 billion before covid, isn't that the froth that tells you assets are overpriced here? equities are really not ,y belly wick -- my bailiwick but markets typically price things in or almost entirely price things in before they happen. so the market has its eye on the demand surge that should occur in services post vaccine distribution. i would expect markets to price the in by and large before vaccine is completely distributed. that would be the first way i would think about it.

the second thing i would point to is the bond market. one of the reasons i think that yields in the u.s. have not risen more than they have over the past couple of months is because of the liquidity that is being distributed around markets. if all you see yields start to rise more quickly, that would suggest that liquidity is not a sample as it was earlier, and that might put risky assets in more danger. but at this point, you are not really seeing that. the 10-year treasury yield is still below 1%. so i don't think we are there just yet, but those would be the two ways i would think about it. carol: i love lists, and you've got a list of the top 10 surprises for 22 anyone. one that i thought really stood out for me is you said immigration causes the northern lights to shine the brightest. you are looking at canada. matt h: absolutely.

we have been bullish on the canadian dollar for a healthy 2021, and in our discussions with investors, what we had found certainly in the middle of the year, but it continues throughout the course are justis that people seeing some structural issues with the canadian economy. we thought, wouldn't it be a surprise if these structural issues never really reared their head, but some other issues like immigration actually carried the canadian dollar even further higher? so we decided to throw that into the mix for 2021 is one of our top 10 surprises. the m: when i look through on the function bloomberg, i see there's a bigger premium for developed asia assets right now. i see one of your surprises is that developed market liquidity

avoids emerging market and drives a dm asset bubble. why do you think we are ignoring emerging markets? they have clearly come through this less's gazed than everybody else. matt h: absolutely. the first thing to recognize is that the liquidity that is being provided by central banks is mostly occurring in developed markets. so developed market central bank slept the fed and the ecb in the the ecb and the bank of japan are providing most of the liquidity we have been talking about, so you have to recognize that the liquidity being provided doesn't have to go into risk assets. it can stay in bank deposit accounts or in money market funds earning nothing if it wanted to. but we don't think it wants to do that. with think it wants to go out in search of yield. so this particular surprise that we wrote about just recognizes

the fact that this liquidity being produced in developed markets could in fact stay in developed markets, so we started to think about what would be a reason why the liquidity would not overflow the borders of developed markets and emerging markets, and ultimately, it came down to the virus and the fact that winter time for us in the northern hemisphere is not the same as wintertime in the southern hemisphere, so we put two and two together and thought maybe if the virus has a resurgence in the southern hemisphere, that might redirect that liquidity or keep that liquidity in developed markets and old like -- and ultimately cause an asset bubble. matt m: matthew, thanks for joining us. matthew horn back -- matthew there,h joining us morgan stanley head of global macro strategy. carol: i think we just have

expectations that we reopen come summer, but i wonder as we get these various new strains if that is one of the major risks to the global economy, as well as global markets next year. there's no exact understanding of when we can really put an end to all of this, especially when you've got new strains coming out. matt m: you guys -- carol: you guys, you guys. [laughter] matt m: i mean, and america, came to go to a restaurant or a bar? here come all of that is closed. gyms are closed, barbershops are closed. carol: new york has shut its restaurants here. it depends. i talked to somebody in austin, texas. the malls were open. i think it depends where you are . matt m: here it is all shut down. car dealerships are actually good. .nly repair shops

you can go hang out in the garage, which is some thing i do a lot of my free time. carol: matt, you just don't change, which is a good thing. withg up, we will talk rabobank's fx strategist. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the house is now daring the senate to follow in its footsteps on stimulus payments to most americans. democrats and some republicans approved a measure that would replace the $600 payments in the new relief bill with $2000 checks. it is a proposal backed by president trump. many senate republicans previously opposed payments larger than $600. joe biden is accusing trump loyalists at national security agencies of obstructing the transition, warning that adversaries could take advantage of the situation.

the defense department says it has been working with bidens team with the utmost professionalism. former british socialite ghislaine maxwell will remain behind bars in new york. a federal court judge has refused her request to be released on bond. the former girlfriend of jeffrey epstein is fighting sex trafficking charges. china is struggling to get the world to trust its coronavirus vaccines. the chinese shots could have been a diplomat win for beijing, waryeveloping nations are that there is little information about how these performed and. . final stage clinical trials only the uae -- performed in final stage clinical trials. only the uae and china itself have endorsed the shots. in the first time in max a year, the boeing 737 will make a flight.

global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

mr. biden: right now we just

aren't getting all of the information we need from the outgoing administration in key national security areas. it is nothing short in my view of irresponsibility. carol: of course, that is president-elect joe biden, making comments of concern about the transition not necessarily going smoothly and not necessarily getting all of the information, especially when it comes to national security. we know that is certainly an important issue as the administration gets ready for 2021. quick check on markets as we wrap up the last few days of 2020. you can see some more enthusiasm. s&p 500 futures up about 16 points, 0.4%. euro at one dollar 20 two cents. the 10-year note with a little bit of movement. crude with some support, too. we had some headlines in terms of global production levels, and that has given support. for our nextdy fro

guest, emerging markets as a whole, if you look at the msci farx, it is up about 13% so this year. if you look at those large developed markets as measured by the msci, it is up about 14%. i was kind of surprised. matt m: for sure. if you look at equities, you will see that. i wonder if it is the same across asset classes. we were just talking with matthew hornbach, and he was saying there is so much liquidity in developed markets and the central banks are pumping so much out into those economies that that could blow up a market bubble that you may be don't see in emerging markets. let's get over to peter mathis mathys of rabobank right now. the hugeou think about liquidity being pumped into developed markets?

what does that mean for the emerging markets you cover? piotr: hello. thank you so much for having me. if you look at the price thatn of capital inflows started to accelerate shortly after the u.s. presidential elections, that was still an element of uncertainty, who is going to win in the u.s. wouldmp had won, that be far more negative for em. so once that uncertainty evaporated, capital inflows accelerated. i think this trend will continue throughout 2021. i think emerging assets have opportunities to catch up with the impressive gains across developed markets as we gradually return to normality next year. the prospect of the dollar

remaining soft throughout next year also bodes well for em. so we are optimistic in terms of prospects for em. carol: how much of the trajectory you are talking about when it comes to emerging markets bouncing back versus developed markets in 2021 is contingent on the vaccine rollout in those emerging economies and how long it takes? piotr: that is definitely going to be crucial how quickly vaccines will be available across emerging markets. and unfortunately, lots of emerging markets don't have the same power of purchase as developed countries. that said, i think that these markets are mainly driven by expectations. look at the performance of european assets over the past few days or weeks. we know that the continent is

struggling to contain the second wave of the pandemic. all of those restrictions the government had to impose to flatten the curve will result in weaker economic recovery from severe recession. that said, the market is still optimistic, assuming that ,accines will be available being distributed in coming months. i think the same thinking will apply when you assess the outlook for em. those emerging countries will have to wait a bit longer for their populations to be vaccinated, but i think that investors will look further ahead, assuming it is only a matter of time when sufficient percentages of the population will be vaccinated. so they will be looking for emortunities across em after ed throughout

trump's presidency. matt: i want to ask you about central and eastern europe because we just had brexit, and there's a lot of focus on the effect that trade agreement is going to have on the economies of written, france and germany, but not so much focus on what is ,oing to happen to residents workers in the u.k. who won't be able to stay there. a lot of those come from central and eastern europe. of course, there's also a lot of trade in goods and services between central and eastern europe and the u.k.. what are your thoughts on the end of this relationship? that: definitely the fact no trade deal, and no deal has becauseided is positive they have strong trade links, especially poland with the u.k.,

so the fact that a trade do has been agreed is good news. i think that it is important to exodus polls of europeans who worked in the u.k. started a few years ago already. ed actually started just before brexit, the outcome of the referendum. we have to keep in mind that prospects across central eastern europe are quite positive. wages have been rising. so this incentive for eastern europeans to come work in the u.k. definitely diminished. carol: something to keep our eyes on. you so much. really appreciate it. mathys joining us from rabobank there on the phone. forgive me, i was just looking

at something online. that -- has passed away at 98. born in italy, became a naturalized citizen in france, and he created the bubble dress, as you know. really kind of legendary when you think of those iconic designers. matt: he's definitely a name that i know, and i do nothing about fashion. carol: i beg to differ. matt: we've lost karl lagerfeld, we've lost hugo boss, now we've lost our garden -- lost garden -- lost pierre gardin. and i would beg to differ. those of us who have seen you around the newsroom, those who have seen you on air, you are rather dapper and you have great socks and hankies, usually.

do they even call them hankies? matt: no. ,arol: coming up, james bevan chief investment officer at ccla. we will talk a little more about the markets. you are listening and watching "bloomberg surveillance" on bloomberg radio and tv. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> central banks are showing no sign that they want to take their foot off the gas. >> domestic activity is still really in the doldrums. >> we could see the first quarter dip back into negative territory. >> i'm forecasting a tumultuous year coming. >> the vaccine rebound is going to be think readily v-shaped. >> it may not be v-shaped for others. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. matt: good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance