tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg December 30, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST
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♪ >> good morning. it is daybreak europe live from dubai. i am manus cranny. it has gone 6:00 a.m. in london. your headlines this morning -- mitch mcconnell blocks a quick vote on $2000 stimulus checks. u.s. stocks dip at the close but they are beginning around this morning. president-elect joe biden slams
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the slow rollout of the virus vaccine in the u.s. this is the nation reports its first case of the u.k. mutated variant. boris johnson set to win swift approval of the brexit deal. it will be pushed through both houses of parliament today. welcome to the show this morning. i want to take you to some of the breaking news headlines, specifically on covid. this time from germany. the vaccineof across the european nations. covid deaths in germany rise by 1122, the most since the start of the pandemic. you code join that with texas, for example. shattering the previous records. the fact that vaccinations in the u.s. are below what the warp speed goals really were. 2021?that be the -- for
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i take you to the markets thisse ground zero for propulsion and equity markets has undoubtedly been 2800 basis points of rate cuts in the world. are they stretched? greater minds and i will debate that. global valuations the most expensive in two decades. emerging markets where the pariah. $20 billion was ripped out of emerging-market etf's at the height of the pandemic. we are seeing net inflows for last week over $1 billion. that narrative has changed. u.s. stock futures down by a quarter of 1%. let me have a look at what's going on in the commodity front. if you believe in a better global growth story into 2021, do you want to belong the kiwi, the aussie? 10-year paper still sub 1%. very little belief in the
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reflationary story for 2021. crude up by one third of 1%. api's drop by nearly -- the biggest drop in inventories. intervention from the saudis and russians, reaffirm in ing their commitment. put in thehe royal oil market. those are your markets. let's talk a bit more about what happened in the senate because mitch mcconnell blocked a quick vote on the $2000 stimulus check. the u.s. stocks dipped on the back of that. and what we need to ask ourselves now is, of course, what happens next. president trump warned that the move amounted to a death wish by the republicans. debatet his take on the over the size of the stimulus checks to individuals.
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larry summers called the move bad economics. what did posen have to say? >> if the choice was getting out of $600 or getting out the $2000 and that was the choice, obviously give the $600 out because it is more important to get the whole package out and probably larry agrees with that. the idea that the $2000 is going to be that big of a difference versus $600. a lot of people will put it in their savings account. a lot of people have a lot more than $600 needed.if it goes into their savings account , you tax it, you get it back later. i don't view this as a big deal versus making sure that the stimulus we've got got passed. i wish it would have been even faster. manus: i am going to convene with adam pose n and larry summers and see who has the
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right economics. that was adam posen, president of peterson institute for international economics, talking about the momentum of stimulus checks. bruce einhorn is our bloomberg reporter. good to have you with us this morning. take us through the theater of what's happening in the senate. bruce: currently what's happening is, we just had chuck schumer, the leader of the democrats move for the senate to for the house bill, called unanimous consent to do that. mitch mcconnell objected so that stop that process. mcconnell then said the senate would consider the higher stimulus checks, along with two other unrelated complaints that the president has. he wants investigation into alleged election fraud and also wants to revise a law that shields technology companies from liability for user content.
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so, we are likely to have the senate move on that perhaps in the next few days. it's unclear how quickly mcconnell would move ahead on that. manus: and in terms of the likelihood -- you heard adam posen said it is better to get this bill out the door and the dollar checks onto people's floor mats or bank accounts. what is the likelihood of this $2000 check becoming a reality? bruce: the likelihood is slim. the provisions that mitch mcconnell is proposing, are areosing those provisions poison pills for many democrats. they want mcconnell to put forward a clean bill. what the house passed, which has we will increase the text to $2000 and deal with the other
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issues at another time. that is one reason why senators bernie sanders and ed markey are saying they are going to filibuster the attempt to override trump's veto when it comes to the authorization bill. that would easily pass in the senate, but sanders and markey filibuster, that will mean the senate has to stick around and therew year's will likely be little time to get anything done. they are hoping they can force mcconnell's hand to get a clean vote. manus: ok, bruce, thank you so much. bruce einhorn, our reporter on the stimulus check. the global head of fx strategy. it would be a dinner our lunch, adam posen and larry summers. where do you come down? $2000 needed, $600 good?
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what does it do for markets? >> good morning to you. i think, first of all, the fact what adam mentioned that u.s. consumers area t pretty elevated levels. at 13%. they have been much higher than recent years. i think it is quite likely if we do see stimulus checks, they will be basically saved. it will not have a huge effect on the economy until such time rollouthe effect of the and economic reopening. when we do see economic reopening, those savings will act like pent up demand being released. i think you will likely see the having theeople checks manifesting themselves in the second quarter of the year for much onwards. the thing that established checks are going up. it will help lower income households. for the broader majority of
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people, they will save the stimulus checks. we won't see those spent until later in the first quarter were second quarter. manus: we are looking forward -- capturing a net forward. we are breaking headlines about the most amount of deaths we have seen in germany since the start of the pandemic. southern california under huge pressure. texas shattering records. are you concerned? should markets be more cognizant delayed,ine rollout subpar rollout? are we sufficiently to that risk? peter: the thing about this virus -- i'm not an immunologist, but the main thing is getting the vaccine towards the at risk groups. if we can do that in a very deliberate manner in the next two months, there's no reason we
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should not be able to do that. roughlytalking about 15% to 20% of your population depending on where you are. then, we can continue with the rollout of the vaccines for lower asset risk groups but also reopen the economy. i think it is right to be forward-looking. weo expect march onwards, will see a much greater level of economic mobility and consequently greater levels of consumption. at the moment, we're in for a difficult few months in terms of managing the virus but there is life at the end of the tunnel in terms of markets. manus: i cut up with the new person in charge of hsbc. we talked about currency and how he thought about the dollar. he said we should begin to look at a bifurcated in the dollar going into next year, that it will be a differentiated dollar, a bifurcated dollar in terms of what it weakens and strengthens. how do differentiated dollar
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into 2021? peter: i wouldn't bifurcate it at all. i think it will weaken very aggressively. we are seeing a very rapid deterioration in u.s. trade balance. that will be followed up in the coming months i a rapid deterioration in currency. currency printing around 4% of gdp. you can easily get to levels of 6% of gdp by the end of the second quarter. the dollar is still very rich. as we see these macro economic imbalances play out, that is going to lead to continued dollar weakness. i think on a trade-weighted basis, the dollar will weaken anywhere between 15% to 25% from current levels. it it is like i said before, is their dollar but it is everybody else's problem. it is a good problem to have is what we tend to see is where the dollar weakens aggressively, it does correlate with better
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global economic outcomes. i think the rest of the world would be pretty happy to see a weaker dollar, particularly emerging markets. manus: you are not going to get off the hook like that if you come on the show and say the dollar will drop 15%. the producer would be upset because i am ripping up his typescript but it is christmas. come up, 50%, 20% drop in the dollar? against what? that is a heck of a call, peter. peter: i don't think it is. it is pretty obvious to me. you are seeing the dollar trait at expensive levels, exchange rate terms. you have the net national savings rate in the states which is now negative, -04 point percent of gdp. that is very standard. a large problem in the states, roughly 20% of gdp. these are all things over the remainder of the year. you've got a fed which is continuing to ease policy quite aggressively and they are ready to do more. i think this time next year,
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money investors and money fx strategist will be sitting back and say why didn't we see this coming? dollar moving above 30. i think dollar-yen could crack below 100. around levels of 620 by the end of the year. the risks are if there is more substantial dollar weakness. gold will trade higher a bit, as well as other currencies should do well, particularly the australian dollar. manus: i think that is how we can wrap up there. thank you. it's ok. that is what i am here for. i'm here is the whipping boy of the show. peter, upb global head of fx strategy. coming up on the show, seven years in the making. china and the eu poised to announce their agreement. the opportunities, what are they for foreign investors? we have the details, seven years
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later. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.
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manus: it is daybreak europe. hordern has a couple of days off. china and the eu are poised to announce an agreement to expand the opportunities for foreign investment. the commission chief is expected to speak to the chinese president xi jinping later today, singling the successful completion it started in 2013. maria tadeo wraps it up. she joins us from brussels. good to see you this morning. so, what does this investment deal offer the european companies? good morning. maria: good morning. it has been seven years in the making and it is coming at the end of the german presidency of the european union. what it does is offer european capital, european investment
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more access into the chinese market, manus. this is something europeans have been repeating for the past years that this relationship needs to be recalibrated and made a two way street to both benefit. if you look at the numbers, there's a trade deficit that is very clear, about 160 billion euros. it works in favor of china, and detriment of the european union and this is what they are trying to tweak. we understand there will be a pledge to open up the chinese market the european companies. there will be a pledge from the chinese to be more transparent when it comes to state subsidies. the europeans were very worried about dumping and what they believe is predatory behavior from the chinese when it comes to european companies. what will be interesting to see are the areas in which the chinese concede and the areas in which they do not. we know labor rights and human it will be difficult for the european union to be on the one hand happy about investments but labor standards and human rights remains an issue.
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manus: maria, thank you very much. the roadmap for 2021 can be very different in terms of trade. maria tadeo in brussels. i love the brussels, by the way. it is great. let's get back to peter, my guest host from ubp. we have china and europe to consider. you thought that the euro could get to $1.30. i put it to you, there is not a chance of that happening with another irishman at the head of you take umbrage with that? peter: he might but there is not much you can do about it. from the ecb's perspective, they are using very heavily. there's nothing they can do on the deposit rate side. at the last ecb meeting, qe was
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a very well priced in. that's about it. it's not like the ecb is going to intervene anytime soon. if you listen carefully to what the ecb and the european officials are saying, they are focusing more and more on the rollout of their ease recovery fund. reading between the recovery fund and these banking tenders we will see next year, i think the ecb has accepted they are likely to see a modest increase to the dollar. consequently, it is about stimulative the domestic economy and not worrying about the euro zone. manus: what are the moderately acceptable appreciations? i need to get the yuan in. we've got two minutes. what is a moderate acceptable appreciation? peter: the ecb rating looks concerned about the pace of your appreciation rather than the level. we are seeing the dollar trading above levels of $1.60 and the ecb did not intervene that.
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it is the speed of the moves they are worried about. we could see the euro-dollar levels around $1.30 which is consistent with the euro-dollar weighted index. , that couldve that be problematic for them. the gradual uptick towards $1.30, they could deal with it. manus: what about the yuan? you give me the dollar narrative , not completely divorced from reality. i know it is the awful of the dollar but it is controlled. what else adds to yuan's strength on the china side of this story? peter: a few things. we have seen that monthly capital inflows towards china have basically -- in january of this year, we were about $50 billion per month. now we are around $150 billion a month. we have seen a huge pickup and towards capital inflow towards
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china. you are seeing much higher bond yields, particulate they long end of the curve. u.s. equivalent are below 1%. you have a substantial yield pickup. you're also going to benefit from not only yield pickup but also china in the coming years. the underlying bond exposures are going to outperform. the equity market is likely to do pretty well. i've seen large capital inflows towards the equity market. i think the announcement you have seen from maria, it suggests you are likely to see further very large capital from the european asset managers towards china over the coming years. i think this is going to become a very consistent trend, a meaningful trend and that will support further appreciation. manus: ok, peter, stay there. do not hang up the phone. that is the instruction of 2020. hang on, don't hang up the phone and don't run away from zoom.
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peter kinsella remains with us. we will talk the pound in a moment. coming up, china is struggling to get trust in its vaccines from the world. that is because of a lack of perhaps information and detail. we discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.
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>> the trump administration's plan to distribute vaccines is falling far behind. with only a few days left in december, we've only vaccinated a few million so far. the pace of the vaccination program is moving now, if it continues to move as it is now, it is going to take years, not months to vaccinate the american people. manus: you've heard from the president-elect joe biden who attacked the nations vaccination
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plan, criticizing the slow rollout by the trump administration. the virus variant spreading in the u has been found for the first time in the united states. it is identified and a man from colorado with no recent travel history. meanwhile, in china, they are struggling to get the world to trust its vaccines. there has been very little information about how the chinese versions have fared in the final stage clinical trials. it is about delivery of information. dan, good to have you with me. how many chinese vaccines are in the making and where are they with development? themthere is about five of that are in the phase three clinical trials of the moment. so, they are just kind of getting that data. part of the reason they've kind of been left behind a little bit is because china did such a good job of containing the virus
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early on that china had to search for places where they could conduct these trials. they have been conducting them all over the world in developing countries. they've had some difficulties just trying to get the local population to trust the vaccines. this is according to bloomberg reporters all over the world, from south america to africa southeast asia, a bunch of different places. we are finding that local populations there where china has invested a lot of money, its infrastructure projects, they are not convinced on the quality of its products. manus: and in terms of the significance of chinese vaccines for the developing world, because there are many nations which are inextricably linked to china and really depend on that relationship. dan: there's also the practical consideration, which is that the
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inactivatedines are which essentially means they could be distributed to much of codeorld using existing logistics. whereas the pfizer vaccine needs to be stored at -70 degrees celsius. you need special storage units that are really not available in the developing world. china's pitch to these countries is that we can get this vaccine to your population cheaply and you don't need to build any special infrastructure to do so. may have nontries other choice but to take the chinese vaccine and therefore it is incumbent on the leaders of these countries to convince their populations that it is safe to take. manus: indeed. dan, thank you so much. dan ten kate on the veracity of the chinese vaccine and the
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variant. swiftjohnson is set for a approval of the brexit trade deal. it will be in parliament today. recovery is the word. you can get it in emerging markets. money flowing in. let's have a look at the board. there was a little bit of waffle on the stimulus checks. adam pozen makes a great point. give us the $2000, you stick it in your bank account, you pay the tax, you get the money back. they get you back in the end with tax. a littlemarkets give bit back. eight weeks of inflows into the emerging markets. pariah to darling.
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euro stoxx 50 down 0.2%. commodities are up. inventories are down. the dollar is lower. put is now given to us as saudi arabia and russia reaffirmed their commitment to oil price stability. what does that mean? moves to $52.50 by the middle of next year. unched. ok. unionk. and the european will today sign a treaty formalizing the post-brexit trade deal after a 1200 page agreement is rushed through both houses of furniture parliament in just one day. the agreement comes at the end of four and a half years of missed deadlines, negotiations, and political upheaval. here is a look back at brexit in 100 seconds. ♪
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>> it is officially called. remain, 48%. leave, 52%. >> the british people have made a clear decision to take a different path. >> brexit is brexit. >> brexit does mean brexit. >> for a new prime minister to lead. >> after three years and two missed deadlines, we must leave the eu. it is bigger than that. is a not some legal -- it moment of real national renewal and change. >> boris johnson is headed down a path that will end in a very hard brexit. >> we need an urgent solution. time is running out. >> time is quickly running out. >> we have no more time to lose. agreementve a final by the end of october. >> at the last moment you will
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find a solution. are, i do at where we think it is vital everybody gets ready for that australian option. you whethertell there will be a deal or not. >> we have completed the biggest trade deal yet, worth 660 billion pounds a year. a comprehensive canada-style pre-trade deal between the u.k. and the eu. >> we can finally put brexit behind us. ursula von der leyen and a look back at four and a half years. i don't think we have changed at all. all, the agony and ecstasy of the brexit negotiations, they did bring us all to the edge of our seats on a number of occasions. what does finalization of a
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trade deal mean? juliette saly has the latest. >> a lot more love coming through for the world's most unpopular stock market. jeffries turning bullish on their view that u.k. equities heading into 2021, saying in dollar terms it could be one of the best performing markets. a lot of the uncertainty removed and we will see the vaccine rollout. a recovery in dividends plus a strong pound would make the pound the most income growth next year. trade should be good for the u.k. transport sector and a vaccine rollout will be good for financials. ubs are quite positive here. they have lifted their forecast for the ftse 100 heading into next year. 7002 hundred, that is an 8% upside from current level. they are also expecting a 32% gain. some of their stocks are those
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that have underperformed. the likes of sainsbury's and lloyd's banking. they predict sterling will have a good year with a forecast of $1.44 by the end of next year, an equity return for everybody who is an investor. juliette saly in singapore. thank you. ubs say one dollar 40 four cents. morgan stanley warned us your run is done on the pound. where do you stand? the deal is done. is it enough to take it above $1.40? >> on the basis of the deal itself, no. october onwards, markets have priced in the likelihood of a deal, so the fact we got a deal did not
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surprise markets. on the deal announcement itself, it is not going to propel cable higher. since marcht cable of this year, it has been a dollar story. sterling, it has not done an awful lot against the euro. there are two issues. first, continued dollar weakness. estimates of fair values are 45und $1.44 to one dollar cents. the boe wants to maintain weak sterling exchange rates to give the u.k. a chance once they leave the eu. there likely to see position of negative rates, that
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is a risk for sterling. the first time a country with the current account deficit has negative deposit rates. it will be interesting to see how that affects us during the coming months. my year end target for cable is less than $1.38. skeptical,ly very the likelihood of the outperformance of u.k. equities, i think there is a long-standing problem in the u.k.. cable upside, but mainly predicated on dollar weakness. we have to leave it there. let's see what happens in 2021. join us again in 2021. peter kinsella, his comments.
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you can scroll back on your terminal. let's get your first word news. mitch mcconnell is rebuffing trump, blocking an attempt to increase stimulus checks to $2000. the president's warning it amounts to a death wish by republicans. byonnell blocked the attempt democrats to pass a bill quickly, making it unlikely to happen before congress adjourns on sunday. the u.k. is set to put more areas of the country under toughest virus restrictions. millions more people will face stay-at-home orders. health secretary matt hancock is scheduled to later today. russia is stepping up pressure , opening a newny
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criminal case against him for alleged fraud. alexey navalny says president putin want him behind bars. ack in august, he suffered near fatal nerve agent attack. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. an activist investor is calling on intel to explore new strategies including a possible breakup and sale of assets. his fund has built up what he calls a significant stake in intel. saying intel has massively year.erformed this let's bring in our asia tech reporter. thank you for joining me. asking intel to do? >>loeb wants to hire an
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investment bank to evaluate strategic options including whether intel should remain an integrated devices manufacturer. what that means is in the past intel has been combining its best chip designs with its cutting edge manufacturing. may beds like loeb asking intel to offload its manufacturing in the chip industry. how will intel respond, or how are they responding to the recommendations? >> quite interestingly. begun thinkingdy whether it wants to export chip loeb samsung before loeb built a stake in the chipmaker.
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intel has been struggling with and itng advanced chips is now widely reckoned intel is lagging behind tsmc when it comes to fabrication technology. an intel officer has said he will decide about outsourcing in 2021. that would be a good change for intel loeb. chip design and manufacturing. intel may be thing about the , earlier this year. the latest on dan loeb's push on intel. coming up, the ceo of russia's thereign wealth fund says vaccine is more like a blind winetasting. this is bloomberg.
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manus: russia reported a record number of covid-19 related deaths. 135,000. a jump from october. this is the pandemic worsens. massa has become -- begun vaccinations with a homegrown vaccine. a russian direct investment fund safe and mayine is -- many people wanted despite the negative narrative being pushed. .e spoke to bloomberg >> lots of people who want to get the shot, our estimate is more than 22% of people would
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like to get vaccinated in near term. others similar to many nations, about 50-50. as people see empirical evidence their neighbors have immunity, numbers will increase. people want to get vaccinated in russia. there are just negative narratives about russian vaccinations. it is just for geopolitical reasons. the real narrative is we have a great vaccine and we will be a major player in vaccines. >> why won't you get published peer-reviewed data? >> first of all, we just published phase i and phase ii. we will publish phase 3 in a peer-reviewed magazine in the next few weeks. data has been submitted.
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it is part of fake narratives the western media is portraying. we have done studies on 31,000 people. we have done clinical studies. india, venezuela, belarus. this is part of false narratives propagated by people who want to contain russia and we want to be partners. example, ones an of our components would be useful to astrazeneca. we offered. time will tell and time will show we have a vaccine that is very safe, very efficient. solution formajor many countries in the world. >> there was a poll published that only 38% of people want to get a vaccine. is that made up? showed 42 percent. those are close numbers.
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it is clear and you will see in january as well, the vaccine is demanded by many people around the world. in russia, people are being vaccinated. we have lots of people vaccinated. we sense in your question this sad narrative trying to portray for competitive reasons russian vaccines in a negative way. , if you do ad do , we have plusting two, plus eight, and very importantly, we believe because we used two different factors -- vectors for delivery, it will last longer. it should be clear to many nations. major vaccinece a partnership with the chinese manufacturer in the next couple of weeks as well.
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manus: it is your daily roller coaster ride in "daybreak europe." talk about equality. has020 draws to a close, it brought sharply into focus as a narrative, the death of george floyd shone a light on the discrimination the black community faces. the impact of coronavirus deepened the existing economic
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inequalities. our quicktake reporter joins us now. you spend a lot of time with anne-marie this year. for me, this is important. the death of george floyd, it was one of those moments for the world, a moment of change. what i want to get a sense from you is, what real action has corporate world taken? >> good morning to you. inequality came back into focus this year in a way we have not seen in past years. it is not a new issue, but we did see more and more corporations beginning to publicly address some of the inues they may be play racial inequality and steps they can take to address it, especially when you think about the issues that were exacerbated this year.
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inequality, wealth, health, education, so much more. what we saw from corporations is their focus on their leadership. specifically in the makeup of their boards. the racial makeup of their boards. we have seen a focus on gender, this year it was race. some steps we saw in particular were from the nasdaq, which announced earlier this year companies could risk being delisted if they did not diversify their board. actives one of the major points we saw from companies this year. were tryingpanies to be more transparent following the death of george floyd. we saw a lot of companies racial makeup of their employees. previously they had not done that. a lot of these reports found is that diversity is still lacking in a lot of management. we have seen companies sharpen
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their focus on this issue specifically. consumers are not afraid to call out companies anymore. companies are beginning to understand that it could ultimately hurt their brand eighth they don't take steps to address the issues we saw only get worse for much of the population in the states and around the world. build into this 2021? the actions that are taken this year, do you think it is going a cast corporate america in different way? are they going to think differently and act differently? >> i think they are going to be pressured to do that. the public as i mentioned is not going to sit back and just watch companies rush -- brush this aside anymore. people don't want to hear companies make announcements. what i have heard from people i interviewed personally this year
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is that people don't want to see statements. they don't want black squares on instagram. they want to see action. companies are really going to have to show they are taking steps to improve it. we have seen that happen slowly. we should also note there is an incoming administration. we have heard the president elect say he is going to focus his efforts on making an america for everybody, where everybody succeeds. we have seen that in the makeup of his cabinet. he has nominated people to positions who he believed understands the issues that all people are facing. a lot of that will also hinge on congress. we are going to have to see who ultimately controls congress after the georgia runoff. biden has said he plans to focus a lot of his efforts on reversing the policies we saw from the trump administration on race. thatieve he is hoping
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we'll have a trickle-down effect on corporations. we have heard from the federal reserve jerome powell has spoken out much more openly that in past years about racial inequality and the role the fed has in helping to address this issue. lot to look for after the year we have had in 2020. as countries try to navigate out of this pandemic, there is record joblessness, record people who are still having to go to food bank for the first time, so there is a lot to look out for. we have to pay close attention to it, but i don't think the public is going to sit back and just wait for companies to take action. iny are going to be active saying they want to see change. thank, a great round up and a close to the year.
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