in just 10 minutes a day. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. get off the floor with aerotrainer. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now. ♪ >> good morning from bloomberg's middle east headquarters in dubai. it's daybreak europe. your top stories this morning. china approves its first vaccine for general roofs -- use. a second u.s. case of the covid-19 variant is detected in california. brexitohnson's post trade deal is approved by the u.k. parliament, 24 hours before

the final split from the eu. enter withpoised to record highs. bitcoin at $29,000. gold heads for its best year in a decade. warm welcome to the last edition of daybreak middle east. the equity market that you see on the left-hand side our absolutely pounding out through new highs as we go into the close of the year. the s&p 500 up 66%. how did we get here? how did we get here? tesla, 730% rise. up 123%. techno-video it was $17 trillion in q3. it was $14 trillion in money supply expansion. let's have a look. you have the dollar on the move as well. we have a number of momentum.

2.5 year low on the dollar. do you still want to be short into that into 2021? underwhelming numbers for covid vaccinations in america. mitch mcconnell killed off the chance for $2000 checks. you are looking at over 1000 daily cases in tokyo. south africa is hitting records. should you have gold? should you have a protection against inflation? do you believe in inflation? , happydon't stay tuned new year. let's circle back to the headlines. they are around the death levels from covid-19. 1.8 million globally. the u.k. prime minister has imposed tighter restrictions across england. the pressure piles on hospitals. of the new virus variant have been found in

singapore and california. to china. the first vaccine for use there in general population has been approved. by biotech. we are joined by our executive editor for greater china, jean-luc. great to have you with me. how quickly will china rollout its vaccine? yesterday, we talked about the veracity levels of this. today, it's about the momentum. john: i think the short answer is that they could roll it out very quickly. china gave emergency use approval back in the middle of the year. since then, they've administered at least 4.5 million doses of the vaccine. 3 million of those were administered in the last two weeks. you can see how quickly it can ramp up. they have a target of inoculating 50 million people by chinese new year, the middle of february. over the next month and a half. manus: we've touched on this a

couple of times. the safety and effectiveness of this vaccine. this is critical, isn't it? john: it is. the safety concern arises from the fact that some of the western vaccine makers have published a lot of detailed information about their critical trials. the chinese makers have not done that yet. that's bond concern about how effective and safe they are. unit thatent of the is making the vaccine today pledged that they would publish detailed information about their trials and international medical journals. if they see an issue, they tackle it. yesterday, this vaccine had achieved a 79.34% rate of effectiveness. that is lower than some of the western vaccines. how does the chinese

vaccine compare to the pfizer moderna? we have seen some of the difficulty in the transportation of that vaccine in the united states of america. this is about the temperature differentials, isn't it? john: that's right. the madura pfizer vaccines are much more effective. they are well over 90% in terms of their efficacy rate. the advantage of the chinese vaccine is that it uses an older technology does -- that does not need to be frozen. that will make it easier to distribute. that could make it more suitable countries. manus: thank you very much. great to have you with me. news on, we get new

vaccines. it a incremental or is constructive game changer to the fx narrative? if so, let's start with china. speaking, the increase in covid cases is a concern. it continues to be more than us. the start of the immunization campaign in several countries. u.s., europe, china. all this is very positive. at the same time, you have policymakers around the world for thesettings loose for seeable future. bottom line is that despite the increased number of covid-19 cases globally, i think we are still -- the global economy is entering the sweet spot of an economic cycle where growth prospects are more favorable and

inflation pressures remain subdued. that will be a very good environment for the commodity sensitive, especially against the u.s.. seeing that the relief rally comes through -- if of hight that quintet beta currencies, is that driven by -- i started talking about m2. i put on the screen. money supply blows out by 14 trillion. money supply in the world is up 95 trillion. john: -- >> fiscal or monetary policy threat in 2021. leading indicators turning to point to a recovery.

this will be enough to support risk sentiment and underpin the commodity complex. i've rolled off a litany of numbers. $17 trillion of quantitative easing. 3000 basis points of compounded rate cuts. i want to draw on the point that you made about some of the more emerging-market currencies. we've seen quite innovative policy response from the likes other asian and the central banks. very different from the gfci. do you think there will be more to come in 2021 from the asian central banks relative to gm? we are seeing a sustained

recovery in chinese economic activity. they will have some very positive spillover effect to the rest of asia. i don't expect more stimulus for asian central banks. i don't expect significantly more stimulus as well from advanced economies. as we don't have a policy mistake, it will be a big risk for 2021. if policymakers remove a lot of this accommodation that they provided to the market, the output gap is still quite large. that will compel policymakers and central banks particularly, whether it's in e.m. or an advanced economies, to keep monetary policy settings very loose. look at advanced economies. a lot of those central banks have now adopted monetary policy strategies that will allow for inflation overshoot. even if we do have a pickup in

inflation, central banks are fromely to remove the rum the punch bowl anytime soon. i think we are still in the sweet spot of the cycle. there will continue to be very favorable for risk sentiment and financial market sentiment is well. manus: what's the currency hedge for the inflation risk if it comes? we've been waiting for an inflation spike for quite some time. the 10 year breakevens are kissing the 2% level. tenure papers kissing the 1% level. how would you hedge from an fx perspective for inflation risk? term from ae the former colleague of mine, you just want to belong god's currency. gold. that will be the ultimate hedge

for inflation. manus: [laughter] ares: real interest rates negative around the world. especially in the u.s.. that would be a big supporting factor for gold. if you want to hedge yourself against inflation -- i don't think we will have inflation anytime soon. at least over the next two years. there's too much flag left. the output cap is expected to remain negative for the next two years. according to the imf. unemployment rates and most advanced countries are still above historical averages. i don't see any risk of inflation in the near term. .ertainly a pickup manus: that's a new one on the show. if you go to the gold round, i saw summit he who bought 6000

contracts of $3000 options for christmas 2021. stay with me. my guess this morning. elias haddad. your first word news flow this new year's eve. temperature issues have delayed over 140,000 doses of moderna vaccine bound for texas. several shipments showed signs of having strayed from the required temperature and have to be replaced. moderna vaccine must be kept frozen for shipment and storage. this underscores the obstacle the u.s. is facing and rolling out the vaccine. the uk's post-brexit trade deal has cleared parliament was less than 24 hours to spare. they gave the dream light before the transition ends and the u.k. leaves the single market at 11:00 u.k. time.

thankednister johnson members of parliament for backing the legislation. ireland is entering a third lockdown. this as the pandemic reaches what health authorities are describing as unimaginable levels. the government is closing non-essential stores, live travel, laying the reopening of schools. the measure will last for a month. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. 2020, what a year. covid-19. since the emergence of the disease, life is we knew it changed. concepts such as lockdowns, social distancing, contact tracing have become commonplace. it has claimed 1.8 million lives worldwide. in january, china imposed the most extensive quarantine in known history. the whole world followed suit with varying degrees of success. nations have, for better, a

lockdown. in 2020, researchers have overcome challenges that usually require years to be. two vaccines have delivered positive news. their shots work more than 90% in late stage trials. the best hopes of ending this pandemic resting on the development of an effective vaccine in 2021. the pressure is on. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's your last edition of

daybreak europe in 2020. the races in georgia are expected to play out like the presidential election, a result delayed by days or weeks while record numbers of votes are counted. tose seats are critical deciding whether the senate is eventually split or if the republicans get a majority control. for more, let's get up-to-date -- whatt it might mean are the sites doing in the final days of the campaign? harris is going to be in savannah on sunday to campaign on behalf of the do democrats. biden isident-elect going to be appearing at a rally in atlanta on monday, the same day the president-elect is there.

president trump is also scheduled to appear at a rally for the gop candidates. thing that we haven't heard anything about -- i don't think mike pence has any plans to go to georgia but that might change. much. thank you so bruce einhorn there, my reporter joining me on the latest presidential machinations. -- elias haddad. we are going into the final for long for the senate. do you think that we get some reaction if the senate is taken, if the democrats take the senate? what would happen for you for risk? elias: that's a very good point. if the democrats take control those two seats in georgia, i

think there could be an upside risk here for the u.s. dollar. if the democrats control the senate, the likelihood that you have a massive infrastructure spending bill in the u.s. would significantly increase. means that could become a magnet for foreign direct investment to the u.s.. potentially, your long-term portfolio. upside risk here for the u.s. dollar. mainly against the euro and yen. could dodity complex relatively well. infrastructure spending also means very high demand for commodity prices. we could see an opera performance the commodity currencies relative to the euro -- ifn if we do indeed the democrats control congress following the fifth of january

senate runoff in georgia. manus: do you think that we've hit an extended short positioning in the dollar? elias: yeah. when you look at speculator positioning on the imm, it certainly looks a little bit overextended with dollar selloff. certainly due for a bit of relief. i thing the fundamental downtrend in the u.s. dollar isn't taxing. first, the u.s. dollar from a fundamental perspective is still overvalued when you look at the relative price differentials. also, the u.s. dollar is overvalued relative to the level between the u.s. and g6 countries. that will continue to put downside pressure on the u.s. dollar. that's gettingor

a lot of traction. has the biggest basic balance deficit since 2012. the u.s. is really highly dependent on short-term flows to finance its current account deficit rather than long-term flows. to attract these long-term flows, the u.s. dollar has to adjust lower. have faster infrastructure. that's why there's potential upside risk for the dollar if we have the democrats in control of the senate. otherwise, the fundamental strength in the u.s. dollar is intact. ubp with me yesterday. the said 15% downside on dollar. we are down 5.5% so far this year. that's the worst since 2017.

what does it take to knock another 15% off of the dollar? manus: -- elias: the u.s. dollar is roughly 5% overvalued. its not unusual to see, would not be unusual to see another shoot of the u.s. dollar . certainly, between 10 and 15% would not be far-fetched in terms of potential downside for the u.s. dollar. for the downtrend in the u.s. dollar would be negative real interest rates in the u.s.. and the more favorable global economic outlook. the u.s. dollar is a countercyclical currency. it should underperform in this type of environment. manus: thank you very much. i've got something coming

through on my i.b. who is taking the other side of that trade. the the democrat when kills dollar. they are a fervent viewer of the show. they said, they have to do close who they are. do not hang up the zoom. that's the instruction of 2020. i will go to my grave saying that. coming up, emerging-market bond sales are heading for another big year. it's your morning call. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $400 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price

for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store. (announcer) do you washed pounds? stress? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. get gym results at home. no expensive machines, no expensive memberships. go to aerotrainer.com to get yours now.

europe.

emerging-market hard currency bond sales are heading for another big year in 2021. that's as government and companies try to revise growth. .hey will probably fall short juliette saly has been looking at the morning calls. juliette: $757 billion in bond sales by governments and companies over the course of goldmanreally try to--- sachs is saying it could be another big year. financing conditions here continue to be supportive for investment-grade and high-yield. you will see governments continue to borrow heavily for a second year to fund health care and property relief measures while pushing the inflation needed. we have a call in asia. really positive on chinese government bonds. when should you buy government bonds?

the answer is right now. the pboc has sent enough signals to show that the easing cycle has arrived with the central bank injecting $84 billion in funding and 8 billion dollars of short-term cash into the financial system into the last five weeks. the pboc is expected to maintain sufficient liquidity around the lunar new year in february. we are starting to talk about lunar new year already. happy new year to you. you.: happy new year to i suppose it's a party for you and the passport. i will be looking different directions. thank you for everything. , the stalwart of daybreak middle east and europe. she's global. coming up, something of an eventful year. what story should investors watch out for as we go into 2021? we will discuss. they are ahead, right here on

daybreak europe. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ good morning from bluebirds middle east headquarters in dubai. it's daybreak europe. your top stories. china approves the first vaccine for general use as a second u.s. case of covid 19 from the u.k. variant is detected. california. boris johnson's post-brexit trade deal is approved by the u.k. parliament less than 24

hours before the nation's final split from the eu. stocks are poised to enter record highs. bitcoin goes to $29,000. gold heads for the best year in a decade. how did we get here? percent from i-66 their implosion at the height of the pandemic crisis. that was in march. globally, you're looking at records being hit across the globe. you are looking at 3000 basis points of rate cuts of aggregate around the world. you are looking at the nasdaq coming into the green. it set for the best year since 2009. looking at the best year since 2017. up 17%. my guest says the dollar is still overvalued. another 15% to trade on the downside.

gold. my guest has called it got -- god's currency. that's where you want to be if you want to protect yourself from inflation. that's not high on the risk board for my guest host in this final edition of daybreak europe for 2020. 1887 for gold. that's bitcoin at 29,000 give or take a dollar. cannot endure? 300% is nothing. have a look at 2013 and 2017. that's when you talk about a market moving. let's talk about next year, shelby? 30 minutes left to do it. yearyear, it's been a since china reported the cluster of cases of pneumonia in wuhan. later identified as covid-19. we look at the key moments from the pandemic which change the world dramatically this year. ♪

>> a second person has died in central china after being infected with a new sars virus. >> china bans travel from the coronavirus epicenter with at least 17 dead and hundreds infected. >> we now have a name for the disease. it's covid-19. >> fresh cases in the u.s., germany, france, iran. >> with the dow industrial set to record its worst drop since 1987. and all other policy institutions are called upon to take timely and targeted actions to address the public health challenge of containing the spread of the coronavirus. >> we are looking at sending checks to americans immediately. >> the united states is working with our friends and partners

around the world. to stop the spread of the virus. >> fear and uncertainty in the market with the u.s. overtaking china as the number one place with the most confirmed cases of coronavirus. >> i've developed mild symptoms of the coronavirus. >> this is a crises like no other. >> worse than the great depression. the global test toll one million. >> president trump has tested positive for coronavirus. >> i learned a lot about covid by going to school. >> we are all in this together. >> cases are surging across europe. 394he is forecast to borrow billion pounds this year, equivalent to 19% of gdp. >> it's amazing to see the vaccine coming out. this shot in the arm for the entire nation. we can't afford to roof -- relax now. defined 2020s that

from how we behaved to how markets react. 2020 has been a year like no other across the world. many of us may wish to say good riddance and good night at 12:00, wherever you are in the world. what does 21 promise? let's talk to our bluebird quicktake editor skye collins for what's in store. great to have you with us. covid, 2020 was dominated by the u.s. election. what do focus on for 2021 as we go into washington? georgia runoffs coming. politically, what does it hold? guy: you are right. the focus in washington in 2021 is going to be on joe biden, the president-elect. the inauguration is january 20. he will have to hit the graham -- ground running and knows that. he has a crisis on his hands with covid and the vaccine program in the u.s. has started to roll out.

it's going slowly according to initial data. biden has said he wants 100 million vaccinations in the first 100 days of his presidency. that's five times the rate than is currently being done. it's in line with what's going on elsewhere in the world. countries like israel. , biden is health care talking about protecting and expanding what's left of obamacare. he's also looking to rebuild international relations. under the trump administration, institutions like nato in the wto came under considerable attack and biden is looking to essentially rebuild relationships. on the immigration front, he's looking to roll back some of the changes that occurred under trump as well. of -- otherlot elections coming through in the coming year. around the world. the focus is on the u.s. and the u.s. elections.

we've got a big election in germany in september. angela merkel has been chancellor for 15 years which means that some of the voters in september's election will literally have no memory of any other german leader. this will be a big change for the country. manus: absolutely. climate has been top of the agenda. many people went to davos last year and came home talking about yesterday and the climate. how will that top the agenda? will it be on the agenda in 2021? agenda is just becoming a theme and pretty much all aspects of policymaking. that includes the financial markets as well. we will see a number of developments in 2021 on that front. the u.k. treasury is going to be selling the first-ever green sovereign bonds in the second

quarter of 2021. they will be used for green financing. green financing is at the top of the political agenda. government looking to put money into the economy, projects where environmental or climate goals are in the forefront. we've seen this around the globe. here in europe, what's happening is also that central banks are getting involved. the ecb has specifically said that it wants to -- wants to put climate goals front and center. it will be coming out with some documents in the summer which will put the details on that. elsewhere, we are seeing things like expanded missions trading for carbon dioxide from ships. that's going to have a big effect on the way that carbon is traded around the world. more locally, there will be an expansion of the low emissions zone in october.

this is the zone in which people who drive older vehicles have to pay a daily rate in order to keep them on the road. that will be expanded pretty much right across the capital. on the climate front, the u.s. is going to top out in november with the u.n. climate summit in glasgow. that will be hosted by boris johnson and joe biden will be there. many other world leaders and people that will be looking for ambitious targets. confirmation of goals that have already been announced. manus: thank you so much. that's guy collins. the outlook for 2021. the european union and china yesterday announced the political approval of the agreement to open the chinese markets further to the eu investors. at the eu chamber of commerce in china. the shortcomings of the deal might be.

no deal is perfect. shortcomingsthe will still have a negative list. something that we resented. we have known negative list for europe and china. from the legislation, we are told that these areas cannot invest. we still have constraints. 400 pages with more than 900 recommendations. we have to work through the details in order to see where we have real improvements. the shortcomings, when you look at the negotiations side, they wanted to have a strong sustainability basket. there has been soft language on forced labor and so forth. the soft part of that could actually be challenged by the european parliament in the second part of 2021.

tom mackenzie speaking to the eu chamber of commerce in china. up, it's finally happening. the uk's trade deal with the european union clears parliament in just one day. we run you through the historical changes. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ the uk'ster what, relationship with the eu is changing. frome will no longer apply 2021. for brits traveling across the channel, you will need six months on your passport and will only be able to stay for 90 out of 180 days. the withdrawal agreement

protects the right of those already abroad but in the new year, there will be new costs and residency requirements. goods trade will see more friction. there will be new customs declarations, special certificates to move animals, you will need the right paperwork to get close to some u.k. ports. to avoid chaos, the u.k. is giving important race periods. there were changes for services and capital. a lot remains unclear. london is set to lose its automatic right to sell into the eu. the u.k. has granted broad equivalent to eu capital, auditing, and insurance. europe has been narrower. it's in no hurry with other financial services. there on thedwards eu and u.k.. less than 24 hours until the final split from the european union. forrest johnson straight deal

has been approved by the u.k. parliament. prime minister signed the agreement after it was washed through both chambers in a single day. editor,t to our brexit ed evans. good to have you with me. what does this mean? is brexit over? what about from a political point of view? ed: the question of whether to leave the eu is over. the legislation went through in 24 hours yesterday. majority.son has a getting brexit done. you saw this bill go through the house of commons and the house of laws and hours yesterday. does that end brexit as a political question? unlikely. you will see the question of how close britain should be to its nearest trading partner go on. certainly that's one of the things left open by the bill. there are still those in the

conservative party who are really concerned about this question. they want to keep on top of it over the years to come. will the u.k. be ready for brexit? the team has written a number of papers on preparedness and its potential impairment on the economy in q1. elias: -- ed: very big questions here for business. the legislation has gone through on the 30th. brexit comes into force the following day, today at 11:00. does this is have not had time. there are questions over the ports in the borders, whether they are going to be ready. there will be some disruption before christmas. ports say they have had time to do as much as they can to prepare. a number of delivery firms are pretty shifted.

it may take a little while for some of the delays at the border to appear. there are certainly big questions about whether businesses are ready for the changes coming at 11:00 tonight. manus: it certainly won't be frictionless. there's paperwork and validation and proof of origin of where the goods were produced and percentages to be adhered to. thanks a million. thank you for your stoic coverage for 4.5 years and beyond. elias haddad. our guest is still with me. i look at volatility. i'm drawn to moments of implosion. markets moved to the extreme. volatility had eased. there's a palpable sigh of relief and volatility. is that misguided in any way? do you think when it collapses like this, it's an opportunity for me to pick up some spice

yvonne at a cheap price? in the near term, i don't see any significant market events that could lead to a sustained spike and volatility. at the same time, you've got central banks providing all of this liquidity and -- into the financial system to ensure -- to contain significant volatility spikes. into 2021, some of the big risks out there that could lead to a pickup and volatility, the biggest one that i see would be are central banks prematurely removing the monetary policy accommodation, that would lead to a significant spike. manus: that's more a fed risk than a boe risk, isn't it? elias: also, it's more of the

fed. if the fed fails to ramp up their asset purchases, they've committed to purchase 120 billion every month for the for siebel future. the risk is that they could increase the pace, especially if 10 year treasury bond yields into the u.s. continue to edge higher. the fed will need to come in and rally andn in the treasury yields. i will watch out for that for volatility. manus: ok. thank you very much. thank youu well and for being with me in 2020. you will join emory and myself in 2021. coming up, it was the crypto

rally. bitcoin just something through the highs. 29,000. we look at the stunning rally in december. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's bloomberg daybreak: europe. how did we get here? the s&p 500 it records. asia, the best year since 2017. we rallied by 66% across global equities, 3000 basis points of rate cuts. look at the emerging markets. -- rogerone number burgess. s&p futures back to flat. , 12,850.

up 47%. there's only one number that matters and it's this. $14 trillion. that's the amount of money supply added by the u.s., china, eurozone and eight other major central banks. at 94.8pply now trillion. let's roll it up and have a look at, where do you go for a bit of hedge? gold? that's a question. it's had the best year in a decade. up 25% this year. the producer wants me to read on but i'm going to get to the end of these notes. i'm going to defy the producer. of 29,000. is off the dollar is down to 2.5 year low. we will get to bitcoin. cryptocurrency is ending the year on a high. that's is the currency surpass

the record of $29,000 before sliding down slightly. another fresh high for the cryptocurrency. 50% on the upside in december alone. , with joined by eric lam me on the bitcoin mania. this is nothing. we did thousands of percents in 2013. 300% is nothing. eric: yeah. well, it is staggering to think about. if you go all the way back to the first ever transaction with bitcoin, it was something like 10,000 bitcoin for two pieces. you could buy a lot of pieces with the cost of one bitcoin now. up to 29,000 earlier today. talking to people in the industry today, i think the next round number that we are looking for is the $30,000 level. it would be interesting if we are able to get to that before the end of 2020.

the view thatng, we might be near a top for bitcoin. that is something we've been talking about throughout the month. it hits another milestone. it just keeps right on climbing. the question is, how much further can this run for bitcoin go? look. what is the biggest risk faster that is -- factor that is emerging in this? eric: there's a couple things that we are keeping an ion at the moment. first off, on a technical indicator basis, bitcoin is looking a little bit overbought. strength is well into overbought territory. there is wider regulatory concerns, as we've discussed. there's a lawsuit from the fec .gainst arrival coin while that's not related to bitcoin, there's always that fear of a wider regulatory scrutiny on the industry

overall. you've got a new administration coming into the u.s. in january. there is uncertainty in the market. at the moment, at least for today, the market is shrugging that off. bitcoin is climbing higher. that $30,000it top level before the end of the year. manus: absolutely. everything's possible. thank you very much for your contributions over the years. buddy in crime on bitcoins reporting. that's it for daybreak europe. annmarie hordern conveys her virtual regards. from me to the whole team, as i said at the end of the last show , you get your daily edition of daybreak europe. it is put together by a cracking team. how could anybody have a holiday right now? how could they not be here?

my thanks to the whole team at bloomberg hq in london. they make sure that you get your daily edition of daybreak europe. happy new year. ♪

>> good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets. this is the european open. i'm matt miller here in berlin. today the markets say happy new year. stocks are set to end 2020 at record highs. in some places the cash trade is just an hour away. here are your top headlines from the bloomberg terminal. china approves a domesticically produced vaccine