♪ >> there is going to be surprises on the way that will largely not be present. >> we could see the first quarter back into negative territory. >> i'm expecting a tumultuous year. >> i think we are looking at a much better second half. an economic have recovery and not necessarily a stock market recovery. >> when we look back a decade for now and focus on what happened during 2020, we will all be amazed at the rapidity of the response.

good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." lisa are off this week. for those of you on radio not seeing this beautiful display of vibrant colors, we are watching the fireworks go off in sydney. it is of course midnight there. only is it 2021 in sydney. it is no longer jonathan ferro's birthday there. everywhere else in the world still is jon ferro's birthday. carol: probably just like he likes it. fireworks for him wherever he goes. how great is that? it,: now that i think about he has grown up with fireworks that celebrates his birthday. what a spoiled bald man. we wish him well.

a good friend of mine, of course. i will change into my blue suit when it is time for the open in tribute to jonathan ferro today. happy new year to everyone in sydney and audiences around the world, great to be with you today. carol: great way to bring in the new year, at least over in sydney. we will see that around the world. us, things change overnight. there is something about seeing that, that gives me some hope in terms of 2021. we could deal with some of the problems that have been hanging over us. it is kind of crazy when you look at the market trade. it has been quieting down throughout the week. we are seeing markets ending this tumultuous year on a quiet note. you have global stock indexes holding your record highs. the dollar is up as much into years. we have to think big picture as

we get ready to wrap up 2020. it has been a volatile year but a year where nobody would've anticipated the gains we have seen in some asset classes including stocks as a result of the struggles we had to deal with. matt: you mention my mother. in march, when the markets were crashing she was in tears on the phone with me moving into my spare room. no idea how she will report retirement. now she's out shopping for houses again. that is how i think 2020 has gone. that wehe great rallies have watched this year. we talk about bitcoin already. even the lowly base metals. if you look at a chart of copper, it comes down in march, understandably. the economy you think is going to tank. especially with the virus starting in china, one of the biggest users of dr. copper.

4500t has taken off from to 8000. francisco, let me get your take on what you have seen with copper. it has been my career predictor of economic growth, do you see it that way? francisco: absolutely. one of the interesting things about copper is that to a point we have seen this huge amount of stimulus coming into the economy supporting the market. remember one thing. the trade stock that we saw this year, the drop in the purchase ofgoods was half the scale what we saw in 2008 in 2009 with twice the stimulus. the fiscal and monetary stimulus. one of the unique things about sectorisis, the services has stumbled. mainly hospitality.

we think about copper, copper fromeally benefited continued shopping demand. they continue to buy things from the u.s. and around the world. saw thes soon as we lockdowns in the month of may, we saw all of the demand for copper come back pretty quickly. now we are looking at the next few years and people are realizing copper is key to the efforts. presidency, it demand.e a copper is key. copper will pick up.

we will see copper demand to the electricity sector. 2dwill see strong copper carbonized the sector. copper goes through the eye of the process. there's a lot of things going for proper -- copper right now. as one of the winners of 2021 and 2022. i think that is going to be one of the significant trends of 2021. this idea of decarbonization. makes solar power work will be put into the s&p 500. there is something going on that is more significant. there is something that feels like that happened in 30 -- 2021. we could see mountains, we could see clear skies.

world is looking at the greener environment. how does that continue to play out? a moreat become significant investment trend in 2021? francisco: i think so. it is bullish metals and particularly bullish copper. older metals like nickel, which alsosed in batteries and lithium, cobalt, silver, platinum. steel, you need a lot of steel 2d d carbonized, ironically. these trends are very entrenched. governments will come down to. this year governments have

gotten a lot bigger. to fill the gap left by the private sector with government spending. alsois what has created this capacity. governments are simply a lot bigger and they have to keep spending money. i think there is something going on there. carol: why not do it in a greenway? it has been a rough year but i could wish you a happy new year. global commodities and derivatives research at bank of america. we want to talk more about the market environment. marvin lois with us joining us here on the phone. good to have you here, good morning.

consensus risk is emerging as the biggest market risk. what specifically are you concerned about? itvin: the challenge is that is hard to argue ultimately with the return to mobility that we all expect within a few quarters. the trades that have worked this year continue to be in a lot of ways the trades that everyone is excited about going into next year. it is very one-sided. we know we are in for a challenging winter. we are willing to look through it because of the vaccine. it is still going to be a rocky period. the markets will look past some of those concerns. with thed to argue power that the vaccine will let us all return to normal the way we want to. how quickly do you expect

that to happen? have beenile there hiccups in terms of the rollout of the vaccine particularly in the u.s. relative to how quickly they have occurred, i think we are going to start to see increased mobility with lower death rates, which allow people to be more comfortable and re-engaging by the second quarter. certainly by the summer we will talk about what the world is going to look like in a post-pandemic matter. carol: biggest risk met year? -- next year? marvin: inflation that is not present now could be a bigger problem earlier then a lot of people expect. just because of the stimulus and the pent-up demand. the inflation that has been building with the pandemic

type products. it still remains relatively high. the overall readings are low. carol: thank you so much. happy new year. senior global market strategist joining us. there is a headline crossing the bloomberg. looks like senator lindsey news andeaking on fox urging senator mitch mcconnell to set a vote on a standalone to thousand dollar check. it is interesting that right when we think this issue has kind of gone away, we talked to kevin cirilli earlier. once again someone on the republican side saying maybe we could do this in a different way. we know senator graham just played golf with donald trump. mitch mcconnell has been trying to wrap up these checks with a couple of issues he knows will kill it right away. a political poison pill as kevin said. donald trump tweeted out that not passing these to thousand

dollar checks is a death wish. that is a direct quote. lindsey graham very close to the president is trying to convince -- urging mitch mcconnell in an interview on fox and pass those increases. coming up, adam siegel, the director of digital and cyberspace policy program will talk to us. this is bloomberg. ♪ mcconnell has made it clear, the direct payments will not be increased to $2000. senate says the house built that would do that has no realistic path to quick passage in the senate. the larger payments are backed by democrats and president trump but o'connell says the house

legislation fall short of what the president wants. british parliament approved boris johnson's brexit trade deal with less than 24 hours to spare. to get the deal through parliament in a single day and the four year saga that gripped british politics and divided the country. officials admit the coronavirus immunization program is off to a slow start. bet raises that the all in that vaccines could be hurt by other measures. americans haven been vaccinated as of last night . a fraction of the 20 million they hoped would receive shots by the end of 2020. has beenile tycoon sent back to jail. he's waiting for trial for violating a security law. it reverses the lower court's

decision to let him go on bail. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by 27 hundred journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels.

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♪ -- wait foro with the details. openfinitely have the door

where we could do stuff that they were able to do in the past. matt: that was the eu chamber of in china boss. he is the head of that. it is really interesting that he and the eu are so excited about the deal on a day when lyinese have ordered jimmy back to jail. there are pro-democracy protesters in hong kong facing very long jail sentences. being brought back to prison. beijing's ironclad holdover that former city state. is tryingime, the eu to deepen its business relations with china. those things juxtaposed are

pretty fascinating. carol: i was licking the same thing when we were doing the story on jimmy lai. it is not great to be a successful business person right now or it feels that way in china. matt: unless you are a billionaire. is he moving his money out of hong kong? i just wonder. matt: he has so much money you don't need to shed a tear for him. we keep talking about juxtapositions and capitalism. until the government says wait a minute, i want to kind of rain you in. andnt to get to our guest i feel like we could talk to him for 60 minutes. adam siegel is patiently waiting. he's the director of the cyberspace policy program at the council of foreign relations.

how do you make sense of china right now? it does feel like they are definitely talking tough with everything and everyone around the world. really clamping down on a lot of issues. what is going on and what doesn't it mean for relations? i think that is right. clearent xi has been very that china is going to exert itself on the world stage. he has this vision of a china dream. entail it drawing around on the international stage. more ofy controlling society and the chinese economy. aboutwhat do you think the moves? alibaba and they were maybe a bit flippant towards regulators.

chinese regulators will probe equity holdings and they already spoiled the ipo. do big business titans really have to turn it around and get an attitude change before they could continue to operate as they previously had? adam: they are definitely sending a message. the speech that jack gave denigrating the regulators really upset and angered jie xi xinping. the messaging from the party that he expects the private sector to really follow along and help china achieve its goals. the regulations are not going to be a larger political campaign

against the sector. is there was an interview with the deputy general of the people's bank that really talked about anti-monopoly regulations in a very technical way. there was a statement in china daily that talked about the government still wants to support the platform economy. if you do what the party wants you to do, you could continue to make those billions. carol: does the world still want to be a part of one of the largest markets in the world? it was all about everybody. whether was european, multinational, you want to have a footprint in china. as china has made it very clear that they want to develop domestic economy. in the financial industry, i do

wonder has that changed? does the outside still want to be in or are they starting to pull back? has china started to pull back and let them in? adam: i think the business r stillty in particular believes they have to be there. i don't think they think there is a choice. the mystic market is still so attractive. they will insist that much of the domestic economy goes to chinese firms. ,s you mentioned in your intro values and goals for the chinese government that are going to values andwestern they will make it very difficult for companies to be involved without having to compromise on

those political values. there was an interesting piece yesterday saying the eu makes this deal with china at just the wrong time matt: matt: for matt: the biden administration. matt:matt: now the biden --inistration with china at just the wrong time. the biden administration has to come in and make the deal with china. the discussions have been in long-standing, they finally reached the conclusion. the biden administration is coming in with a lot of expectation that they could make up with the eu fairly easily given the trump administration's denigration of alliances and working with europeans. onwork broadly with europe pushing back against china,

especially in areas like technology competition. to see the eu make this agreement now is not great time timing for the biden administration. matt: thanks for joining us. we both really appreciate your time and we wish you a happy new year. adam siegel from the council on foreign relations talking to us about china. carol: i'm sorry, i didn't mean to step on your words. who: we have a producer says miller thanks. carol takes us out here. carol: i think this will be something we have to watch. they have really focused on security issues for the first time on all different levels of their society. it was great to catch up with adam. i will take us out because o'reilly says take us out. our guest will join us from fs

investments. in just about foreign half minutes, we have the weekly jobless claims. to key economic data point watch. certainly among the pandemic. you are listening and watching bloomberg surveillance. save hundreds on your wireless bill without even leaving your house. just keep your phone and switch to xfinity mobile. you can get it by ordering a free sim card online. once you activate, you'll only have to pay for the data you need starting at just $15 a month. there are no term contracts, no activation fees, and no credit check on the first two lines. get a $50 prepaid card when you switch. nationwide 5g is now included. switch and save hundreds. xfinity mobile. (announcer) do you washed pounds? stress? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you maintain comfortable, correct form.

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carol: you are listening and watching "bloomberg surveillance ." we will get another economic data point in just a couple seconds time. we are talking about the weekly jobless claims number. they give us a check on where we are. 787,000 jobless for the weekend. that is better than forecast. economist we surveyed were looking at 835,000. it is below the previous week, which was 803,000. as we look at continuing claims, that is an important benchmark to look at. ..2 million points better than five three 7 million. u.s. initial jobless claims

falling to 787,000 last week. if i look at futures, the market is pretty quiet here. look at that number. for me, when you get that bigger percentage, you see how bad it was. the concern here was as we continue to shut down parts of the economy, when we go back to those numbers we saw last week. that is why we watch those weekly jobless claims to see whether or not we will have that kind of build we saw last spring. matt: still an unbelievable number. in one week 785,000 americans file for jobless benefits. keep in mind, this is a week where extended jobless benefits president because the waited a couple hours too long to sign that bill. than 5 million people need those continuing claims. those are also people who would love to about to about $2000 stimulus checks. mitch mcconnell right now is holding that up.

this bears repeating that lindsey graham has urged the president himself that holding that up is a death wish for republicans. on lindsey graham has said fox urging mitch mcconnell to put that up for a standalone vote, there's $2000 checks. we could see that change. 5.2 million people need to figure out a way to put food on the table and pay the rent. it doesn't seem like the time to play political games. carol: many would ask where was the president and other republicans over the summer. the democrats certainly would've said we are all in. we are seeing this debate continue when we could probably in terms of policy makers to it out.

in the spring we were up to 6.9 million as the economy shut down. we have to put this to our next guest, whether or not she is worried when it comes to seeing more jobless claims from week to week. matt: let's bring her in right now. , let mes. economist start with the devil's advocate with the other side of this. the u.s.oint does spend too much money? at what point does the u.s. take on too much debt? there isn't really a magic money tree, right? at some point you can't keep handing out checks to american citizens. itif we have seen anything is that if we wait too long and until the economy is really experiencing a cataclysmic we aretion what

performing legislation under triage we can't do too much or be targeted. if you could enact legislation earlier you could afford to be more thoughtful and be more targeted with it. need for thees the australian dollar. the point carol made was very important. right now, we are seeing these that make the need so much more inflamed. at that point you are trying to fill a bigger gap. doing less earlier really gets you further. carol: this is going to show in the economy in terms of economic growth, which is always lagging. there's another story on the bloomberg, millions of americans are calling in sick, stunting the recovery. there are a lot of lost days.

that plays into productivity, economic growth, that is stunting that. on top we have to be a little bit worried about growth going forward? lara: i think that is right. claims. at initial to your point they have come down. any other session they are so elevated, even now. you add to the fact that so many people have left the labor force , we will get the big monthly payroll numbers next friday. one of the things we don't hit, all that is expecting is how many people are out there looking for jobs? we have seen the unemployment rate come down but buried beneath that is there are a lot of people -- probably because schools are open, you could pick of a lot of reasons why.

people have taken elders out of nursing homes. you could think of a lot of reasons why people have stopped looking for work. that lower participation rate, little things like that you could cut up 10 million people here and there from the labor force. the you think about what is gdp? those numbers may not be quite as strong as a lot of people are expecting into the end of 2021. as we get that traction back online after the vaccine. do you think companies will hold off in terms of hiring, even if they expect demand to start coming back. how hesitant you think companies will be? do they really see significant demand in at 21? have seen is a really big decline in temporary unemployment.

we started to see permanent employment by then. this really accelerated so many trends that we saw prior to the pandemic. they accelerated rapidly. recession, permanent unemployment really continues to rise throughout the recession. it keeps rising afterwards. be more likely to hire people temporarily. they are less likely to bring on that permanent employment. what we are seeing now is actually playing out in a more normal cycle. we really need to see companies bringing back those permanent .obs overlong cycles without stimulus

checks, that is what really garnishes the household confidence that drives our economy. the thing most troubling to me has been people close to retirement or planning to retire now are not getting any kind of return. you mentioned in your note one of my favorite books from childhood. you compare this to the fixed income market. what do you see happening with the 10 year for example now? are lookingy people ahead with optimistic growth outlooks. i think a lot of the forecast around 4% are very reasonable. the vaccine get effective. here is the real problem. they are still going to be

trapped at historic lows. on the others of it you will have continued quantitative easing. you will have continued uncertainty. calling theple reflation play next year are getting out over. matt: you had that to some extent now and this is what the fed is trying to do. this is financial repression. they are pushing retirees out the risk spectrum. my mom can't be holding fixed income right now. can't remember exactly how old she is. .he has to be in equities you're right about the liquid courage. the fed is enticing people to go out there.

it has thankfully been a good move. lara: absolutely. the point of the idea of the incomeree is this fixed that gave us diversification back when interest rates were 7% and 5%. even 4% in the 2000's. it is about time we really saw that fall flat at the height of 2017 and 2018.n now you are less than 1%. 1.25%. , this has of the day trillions of dollars still in it or related to it. will push further out the income segway. all of those things will keep going in. carol: we will be talking with you, no doubt in 2021.

she is fs investments chief u.s. economist. great to check in with her. bloomberg businessweek in early march did a cover called the lost year. i thought it was so telling. was coming out in there were? -- there were questions about it. guests who were all in. lara saying we have to see how this plays out ultimately. a lot of questions to figure out on that one. matt: you mentioned the case shaped recovery -- k shaped recovery. training people at the gym, you are not making any money. chances are you did not cash in on the equity reflation trade.

if you're holding the s&p, it has been a great year. you are up 15%. it splits, for sure. up, deborah fuller from the university of washington, a professor of microbiology. we will get the latest on the virus. all you need to know on this thursday. this is bloomberg. ritika: senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has ruled out passing a house bill that would give most americans to thousand dollar payments. mcconnell says the measure has no realistic path to quick passage in the senate. instead the senate will work on combining the payments with election integrity and rolling back social media liability protections. the senate is closing in on a vote to override president trump's veto. it is a battle with the white house that may not and until the

final hours before a new congress begins on sunday. the house has already voted to override the veto and the senators are expected to follow suit. u.k. is optimistic about getting a trade deal done with the u.s. under the biden administration. we spoke with the british and basset are to the u.s. >> we believe this deal could be done in 2021. that would in fact he that covid recovery. our confidence and economic recovery across the globe and particularly in the u.k. and the u.s. ritika: digital commerce would be a big part of any trade deal. an end to bitcoins red hot december rally. it sets another record today. past 29,000. global news 24 hours a day on

air and on bloomberg quicktake powered by 2700 journalists and 129 countries. have a healthy new year. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this and thens of storage issues around this vaccine, particularly the pfizer

one right now are larger and more challenging than anything we have ever dealt with. sure every step of the way there is communication. was lauren, a professor of emergency medicine at johns hopkins talking about what has to be the biggest issue of the year. ofwill be known as the year the pandemic. probably even more then the year of central bank liquidity. coming up on the open we will talk about the latter with peter cheer from academy securities. he's the head of macro strategies. he will tell us what he thinks you should do as investors to confront this wave of liquidity with which we then hit. will it keep coming i guess is a question we have for him, especially on the fiscal side. peter cheer joins me in 10 minutes time. carol: i want to get in the

virus and the latest headlines we have seen. we continue to see those numbers rising. we see progress when it comes to covid-19 vaccine. more vaccines coming out. there is still a lot of questions out there. our guest from the university school of medicine, this is her world. headlinesook at the that are out there on a daily basis, it is hard to keep up and be overwhelmed. you?is top of mind for the top of my mind is as quickly as this is changing, so is the virus. increasing transmission in the population. at the top of my mind, that really does impact things like how quickly we could get to herd

immunity. of casesg the number worldwide. matt: how quickly could we get to herd immunity? case you give us best scenario, worst case scenario? that keeps changing. herd immunity depends on two different variables. the level of vaccine efficacy, which is quite high. that is a good thing. it also depends on the transmission rates of the virus. they could undergo changes. we have heard anything ranging from 80% of the population will need to get vaccinated. how quickly that happens depends on how quickly we could roll out these vaccines. seeing this with astrazeneca just recently.

matt: one of the things that worries me is someone who has had lyme's disease like four times, what we know about the long-term effects of this disease? dr. fuller: there is two different things there in terms of the effects of the disease. that is something we will be studying for quite some time. in terms of long-term effects of the vaccine, new data is starting to roll out that we are seeing as we study the vaccine further. last seen potentially up to six months. that is as far as we have gotten so far. hopefully that will last a year or more so when you get vaccinated you could anticipate being immune to this virus for a year or more. carol: we need that. it is going to take a long time for everyone to get vaccine.

you heard from president-elect joe biden, he is worried it could take years at the current pace we are. going said that, i want to back to the variance. could we get to a variance that does not respond to a current round of vaccine? can, iter: if a virus will. that is something i learned a long time ago. it is possible. becomeutations could resistant to our vaccines. we don't anticipate that will be easy for the virus to do. they were designed with this in mind. the fact that viruses undergo mutations. it will be difficult for this virus to get the number and right types of metis -- mutations to get vaccine immunity. with that said, it is possible. one of the thing about the rna , they are very quick to update if needed if a new

variant comes out if it is .esistant carol: we were talking about this story on the break before we got going, china making it harder to solve the mystery of where covid began. how important is that we understand where this covid-19 virus specifically came from to make sure we truly understand it and we could plan for others to come. others will come, right? dr. fuller: absolutely. this is something about viruses, they do transmit. reservoir.animal happens,tand how this that is something scientists will continue to study. it is so important to learn about that. to be able to hopefully predict the next one and stop it before

it gets to this point. carol: one of the conversations i'm having with everybody in my world is i'm exhausted with this year. we could kind of see the finish .ine it will still be a couple of rough months with the economy shut down. what do we need to remember as we move forward? socialhings like distancing, masking, that will be with us for a while. hopefully with these vaccines coming out we will see progressive impact in reducing hospitalizations. we will see that early on. even as it takes time to distribute vaccines and get that into enough people. during that time we all have to work together. the is now in the hands of people or the population. each and everyone of us, we need to do our part getting vaccinated. keeping to the practices of social distancing and masking to

get this under control. carol: i think about covid and this year. what word that comes to mind is all about community. you have to think about those about our -- around you in your community. dr. fuller, thank you so much. have a good year. university of washington school of medicine microbiology professor. what a great voice to talk to and walk off this hour. let's wrap up the hour. it will probably be a quiet trading day. we see trading to some extent still ahead of last year's levels. the s&p 500 futures barely change. 3722. we are seeing a little bit of selling in crude. the 10 year with a yield of .93. coming up later on bloomberg television and radio, alicia she haswe will see what to say about the upcoming market environment. and happy and

healthy new year. we are looking forward to spending 2021 with you. take care, i'm carol massar. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ♪

for jonatt miller in ferro. the countdown to the open starts now. we begin with the big issue. tumultuous to a 2020. >> the coronavirus. >> the coronavirus has completely dominated the conversation. >> i don't feel we are on stable ground. >> we don't know what is going on. >> record low treasury yields. investors are naturally quite panicked at the moment. from theen support fed. >> the fed lesson is liquidity. >> 2020 is all about fiscal policy. >> if we look at all the things we got wrong -- >>